NBA the slenderman cometh.

[BigFatCoward]

1 hour ago, Proudfeet said:

First, you can't just wipe out all the previous games.

Second, have you actually seen Wembanyama play outside of highlights? He really isn't all that yet. His ceiling looks great, but his base is kind of average. 

Statistically, he can't shoot but he insists on doing it a lot and is also averaging more turnovers than assists. For all the shit you all gave Draymond for shooting threes at 30% at less than 2 attempts a game, Wembanyama is shooting 29% at 5 attempts a game. 

Third, Holmgren has an advantage with having a better team to set him up which makes things easier for him. Wembanyama has an advantage where he gets the ball more which helps with his totals. Not sure which is better, but its something else to consider.

Stats wise he is better than Holmgren for the season already, i'm just saying if (and i think he will) he keeps his development up he has a far better stat line than Holmgren by the end of the season. 

Apart from his 3pt % his shooting is ok, last 10 games he is 53% and 87% FT. 

I just struggle to understand MVP style voting, everywhere else its just the best player, who plays for who, and how good the team is is irrelevant.

[DMC]

A lot of analysts/journalists these days emphasize efficiency and/or advanced stats.  If you compare their basketball reference pages, Holmgren clearly has the edge there.  TS% .640 to .553, considerably better numbers when it comes to win share, VORP, BPM.  Wemby actually has a negative offensive win share.

TBC I don’t necessarily agree with this, but I’d say it’s pretty much a toss up between them.

[BigFatCoward]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

 

TBC I don’t necessarily agree with this, but I’d say it’s pretty much a toss up between them.

so did i, thats why i was so surprised to see Holmgren was such a big favourite with the bookies. 

[DMC]

Idk, I’d guess cuz more people are betting on Holmgren?  Looking up the odds, yeah Wemby seems like currently the more lucrative bet due to the difference.

[DMC]

Oh, also perhaps bettors are taking into account the 65 game minimum?  Looks like so far Holmgren hasn't missed a game while Wemby has missed five of the Spurs' games.  If he tweaks he ankle for a few weeks that could be it.  Then again with Holmgren's injury concerns....

Frankly, it'd be pretty amusing (as in "LOL dumbass NBA") if both of them miss the minimum by a few games and are disqualified.  Wouldn't mind seeing the odds on that.

[Tywin et al.]

Chet is efficiently impacting a winning team. Wemby is better, but he's getting a lot of garbage numbers (offensively) on a terrible team. It's a two man race and like DMC said, it will probably come down to health. Chet should win it if the season ended today.  

But hey, LeBron beat out Melo for ROTY when they had pretty similar stats despite Melo's team having a better record and making the playoffs, so who knows. 

Edited January 19 by Mr. Chatywin et al.

[Proudfeet]

34 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Stats wise he is better than Holmgren for the season already, i'm just saying if (and i think he will) he keeps his development up he has a far better stat line than Holmgren by the end of the season. 

Apart from his 3pt % his shooting is ok, last 10 games he is 53% and 87% FT. 

I just struggle to understand MVP style voting, everywhere else its just the best player, who plays for who, and how good the team is is irrelevant.

His shooting is not okay. It's not just his three point percentage. For the season, he's shooting 76% at the rim, and his total field goal percentage is 46%. His shot selection is horrid. He frequently picks up his dribble early, and then forces a jump shot and he's not making many of them. Don't think he has many post moves either. He's not able to pivot around or back people down. 

Personally, haven't actually seen much of Holmgren. He looked good I guess, but its more that I'm very unimpressed by Wembanyama.

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Oh, also perhaps bettors are taking into account the 65 game minimum?  Looks like so far Holmgren hasn't missed a game while Wemby has missed five of the Spurs' games.  If he tweaks he ankle for a few weeks that could be it.  Then again with Holmgren's injury concerns....

Think ROTY is exempt. Its only for MVP and All-NBA if I'm not wrong. 

[Tywin et al.]

I always said offensively Wemby would take some time. If I've read the interwebs correctly he's played a shockingly small number of games prior to getting drafted. And let's be honest, his highlights are so much better than his shooting statistics as Proudfeet said. 

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

Think ROTY is exempt. Its only for MVP and All-NBA if I'm not wrong. 

Was reading a Ringer article yesterday and noticed it applies to most every award - DPOY, All-Defensive teams, and most improved along with MVP and All-NBA.  But you're right that the rookie awards appear to be exampt.

[BigFatCoward]

1 hour ago, Proudfeet said:

His shooting is not okay. It's not just his three point percentage. For the season, he's shooting 76% at the rim, and his total field goal percentage is 46%. His shot selection is horrid. He frequently picks up his dribble early, and then forces a jump shot and he's not making many of them. Don't think he has many post moves either. He's not able to pivot around or back people down. 

 

I literally said its ok in the last 10 games, you telling me 52% from the field and 87% from the line is not ok? 

He's a child, playing a whole new style of basketball with incredible media attention in a strange country (literally and figuratively), and he's keeping his head down and appears to be getting better week by week.  Not sure why you have such a hard on for him to be honest.

[Proudfeet]

6 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I literally said its ok in the last 10 games, you telling me 52% from the field and 87% from the line is not ok? 

He's a child, playing a whole new style of basketball with incredible media attention in a strange country (literally and figuratively), and he's keeping his head down and appears to be getting better week by week.  Not sure why you have such a hard on for him to be honest.

And I said you don't get to wipe out his previous games. Unfortunately I only found the season stats for distance, and its okay, not incredible. Holmgren is shooting 54% for the season, by the way.

Not sure what your second part has to do with the ROTY award either. I don't have a hard on for him, I've brought him up once the entire season before this. I just disagree that he is this "fucking insane" player that you seem to think he is. And perhaps you may actually answer my question if you actually saw him play outside of highlights?

[BigFatCoward]

29 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

And I said you don't get to wipe out his previous games. Unfortunately I only found the season stats for distance, and its okay, not incredible. Holmgren is shooting 54% for the season, by the way.

Not sure what your second part has to do with the ROTY award either. I don't have a hard on for him, I've brought him up once the entire season before this. I just disagree that he is this "fucking insane" player that you seem to think he is. And perhaps you may actually answer my question if you actually saw him play outside of highlights?

of course I get to disregard his previous games, if I'm only talking about his last 10 games, its literally the whole point.  And its fair (but not factual) to assume his more recent performance is more indicative of him moving forward than when he was finding his feet at the start of the season. 

Additionally I never said he was insane. I said 'VW stats for the last 10 games per 36 are fucking insane (35, 14, 4 with 4.33 blocks)'.

Do you disagree that is insane for a 19 year old who is playing a new style of basketball?  

Edited January 19 by BigFatCoward

[Proudfeet]

4 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

i never said he was insane, reading is so important. I said 'VW stats for the last 10 games per 36 are fucking insane (35, 14, 4 with 4.33 blocks)'.

Do you disagree that is insane for a 19 year old who is playing a new style of basketball?  

Nice try. It's not "19 year old who is playing a new style of basketball" but "I don't understand why Holmgren is current rookie of the year favourite".

And no, its not insane considering how much his team is feeding him, rebounds are not all equal and he has more turnovers than assists. I'll give you the blocks.

For the third time, can you just tell me if you have actually seen him outside of highlights?

[BigFatCoward]

28 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

Nice try. It's not "19 year old who is playing a new style of basketball" but "I don't understand why Holmgren is current rookie of the year favourite".

And no, its not insane considering how much his team is feeding him, rebounds are not all equal and he has more turnovers than assists. I'll give you the blocks.

For the third time, can you just tell me if you have actually seen him outside of highlights?

I don't understand why he is the favourite, when it seems clear to me that VW is improving far more week on week compared to Holmgren, which is understandable/obvious considering their respective backgrounds.   Holmgren might be a rookie in name, but he has been around a professional basketball team for about 18 months now, he is settled, his game isn't going to develop as much in the short term. 

If we were 80% into the season it wouldn't be a factor but current trajectory will be important in assessing who is best over the 'whole' season, not just up until now.  This was all pretty clear in my initial post. 

if you don't think that is an insane stat line for a 19 year old i don't know what to tell you. 

 

Edited January 19 by BigFatCoward

[Proudfeet]

6 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

I don't understand why he is the favourite, when it seems clear to me that VW is improving far more week on week compared to Holmgren, which is understandable/obvious considering their respective backgrounds.  If we were 80% into the season it wouldn't be a factor but current trajectory will be important in assessing who is best over the 'whole' season, not just up until now. 

if you don't think that is an insane stat line for a 19 year old i don't know what to tell you. 

What do you mean understandable/obvious considering their respective backgrounds? The most hyped rookie for at least a decade or two (Holmgren was only the second pick last year by the way) is supposed to be an underdog? Wembanyama was the favourite coming into the season. Their positions reversed because of their play.

I don't know where your confidence that Wembanyama will continue improving at the same rate comes from either. For the fourth time, have you actually seen him play?

[BigFatCoward]

47 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

What do you mean understandable/obvious considering their respective backgrounds? The most hyped rookie for at least a decade or two (Holmgren was only the second pick last year by the way) is supposed to be an underdog? Wembanyama was the favourite coming into the season. Their positions reversed because of their play.

I don't know where your confidence that Wembanyama will continue improving at the same rate comes from either. For the fourth time, have you actually seen him play?

Their different backgrounds in that Holmgren should have been much much more NBA ready at the start of the season. VW was playing different rules until 3 months ago, and had to settle into a whole new lifestyle and country. This shit takes rime to get over. 

Holmgren has been with an NBA team for a year and a half. So he is likely to have less development during this season. VW appears to be having an obvious uptick in his stats as the season progress, Holmgren less so. I don't understand what your problem is with this really simple premise. 

Hence I don't understand why Holmgren is such a hot favourite when voting doesn't happen now. 

I don't watch basketball mate, I just analyse stat lines for fun. 

[Wilbur]

7 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

I don't understand why Holmgren is current rookie of the year favourite.  i know he's doing it for a successful team, but VW stats for the last 10 games per 36 are fucking insane (35, 14, 4 with 4.33 blocks), and i see no reason he isn't going to keep it up for the rest of the season as he continues to develop in game intelligence etc. 

When Chet plays offense, he plays without consideration for what he should do next.  He already has his court vision set as he receives the ball, and he also makes moves off the ball in a smooth manner at the same time as his teammates.  No one on his team accommodates him, they are all just playing ball at speed, trying to win games.  Also, he does a lot of the NBA-level non-stat connective stuff consistently - getting all the way down to the correct spot on the floor off the ball before starting his cuts, talking on defense, boxing out for teammate rebounds, etc.

Wemby is not yet to this level of proficiency, in that he often re-assesses the court upon receipt of the ball.  He is also a step behind on the off-ball motions in some cases as well.  This is not to say he is doing anything wrong, just that he is a young player still assimilating to NBA rules and speed in a new language.  Although the constant losing is galling, the Spurs have a lot of guys around him who clearly have the task of talking to him, providing him with feedback and real-time coaching, which is entirely to the Spurs' credit.

When Wemby gets it right, he is the next level of NBA evolution.  But on a play-by-play basis, he has moments when he still shows like a freshman playing with seniors on the high school team, where he is ever so slightly hesitant and out of sync with the others.  Chet doesn't create that level of show-stopping individual play, but he does jog along with the rest of his team with a lot less timing misses.

The LeBron / Melo comparison is good in the sense that LeBron was clearly far, far smarter than Melo in their respective rookie years, and LeBron was doing all the connective stuff to help his team win, Larry Bird-style, from Day 1, even though Melo put up better numbers.  Wemby will develop those game smarts, English skills, etc. etc. soon enough, and he has potential to be the step-function elevation of the NBA game if the Spurs continue to keep him healthy and educate him.  This year, though, if I wanted to win games, I would want Chet out on the floor.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

of course I get to disregard his previous games, if I'm only talking about his last 10 games, its literally the whole point.  And its fair (but not factual) to assume his more recent performance is more indicative of him moving forward than when he was finding his feet at the start of the season. 

Well, I think some of the pushback you'd get is 10 games is still a pretty small sample.  Is it indicative that he's progressing/starting to figure things out?  Almost certainly.  Is it also probable we will regress closer to his season averages for the remainder of the season?  Again, just from a purely statistical standpoint, almost certainly.

As for being in a strange new country, you didn't even mention Britney Spears!

[Proudfeet]

7 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Their different backgrounds in that Holmgren should have been much much more NBA ready at the start of the season. VW was playing different rules until 3 months ago, and had to settle into a whole new lifestyle and country. This shit takes rime to get over. 

Holmgren has been with an NBA team for a year and a half. So he is likely to have less development during this season. VW appears to be having an obvious uptick in his stats as the season progress, Holmgren less so. I don't understand what your problem is with this really simple premise. 

Hence I don't understand why Holmgren is such a hot favourite when voting doesn't happen now. 

I don't watch basketball mate, I just analyse stat lines for fun. 

Yeah, and Holmgren wasn't the number one pick while Wembanyama was projected to go first immediately after they finished with the 2022 draft and there was zero ambiguity over where he would be drafted. As far as preseason, he was the runaway favourite. This different rules, new country and lifestyle aren't new details. 

The uptick in his stats is probably because the Spurs have finally committed to playing him at center full time and also given up on Sochan at point guard and put Jones in. No idea what Popovich was thinking. Regardless, you can't just assume linear progression. Players will have their ups and downs.

Separate from this discussion, for someone who doesn't watch basketball, you sure make a lot of comments on how players look physically.

[BigFatCoward]

28 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

 

Separate from this discussion, for someone who doesn't watch basketball, you sure make a lot of comments on how players look physically.

Americans really don't get sarcasm at all.