Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[Potsk]

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The Doctrine of Exceptionalism. Despite the evidence in the text to the contrary, some people genuinely believe it.

37 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

I agree that the the text provides plenty of evidence of negative effects.

The thing about that evidence is that it always involves regular marriages first. Aegon II and Helaena producing six-fingered children can simply be a result of Hightower blood incesting, rather than of Targaryen blood. Aerys II (assuming his madness is caused by incest) is a product of Targaryen incest that occurred after generations of regular marriages, thus it could have been caused by his Martell/Dayne/Blackwood genes mixing in ways they shouldn't mix.

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

The thing about that evidence is that it always involves regular marriages first.

Exactly like in the real world.   An unbroken string of sibling incest soon leads to non-viability.  So yeah, there always have to be a few regular marriages back there somewhere.  Otherwise the line would have died out long ago.

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

Aegon II and Helaena producing six-fingered children can simply be a result of Hightower blood incesting, rather than of Targaryen blood.

Non-incestuous marriages can also result in defects. 

Again, exactly like in the real world.

In this case, possibly because inbreeding brings to the fore recessive traits that manifest upon outbreeding.  But who knows?

Defects or traits can skip generations. 

A quick search shows that attempts to save an inbred line through outbreeding can indeed result in further trouble.  This is one manifestation of the phenomenon known as "outbreeding depression".  This contrasts with the problems caused by inbreeding which are called "inbreeding depression".

Genetics is complicated.

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

Aerys II (assuming his madness is caused by incest) is a product of Targaryen incest that occurred after generations of regular marriages, thus it could have been caused by his Martell/Dayne/Blackwood genes mixing in ways they shouldn't mix.

Right.  Two successive generations of full sibling incest are likely to lead to all kinds of trouble, for reasons that have nothing to do with whether the troublemaking genes are Blackwood, Martell, Dayne or Targaryen.

Edited January 28 by Gilbert Green

[Potsk]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Exactly like in the real world.   An unbroken string of sibling incest soon leads to non-viability.  So yeah, there always have to be a few regular marriages back there somewhere.  Otherwise the line would have died out long ago.

This is applying real-life expectations of what might happen, to a race of magic elves in a fantasy story. Moreover you're missing the point: the "evidence" against the Doctrine of Exceptionalism always involves a Targaryen marrying outside the family, then their children marry each other, and then their offspring show undesirable effects. It's never simply incest = birth defects. Whether there were regular marriages "back there somewhere" is beside the point.

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Non-incestuous marriages can also result in defects. 

Again, exactly like in the real world.

What would be the literary purpose of giving one of the Targaryens a birth defect if it's just a regular birth defect that has nothing to do with the fact that his parents are siblings?

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

In this case, possibly because inbreeding brings to the fore recessive traits that mainfest upon outbreeding.

That's what I think GRRM is getting at by giving Jaehaerys a six-fingered hand. More specifically, I think he's suggesting that such traits would never manifest if the Targaryens didn't outbreed. Alicent's non-immune genes muddied the bloodline.

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Right.  Two successive generations of full sibling incest are likely to lead to all kinds of trouble, for reasons that have nothing to do with whether the troublemaking genes are Blackwood, Martell, Dayne or Targaryen.

*One instance of full sibling incest (his parents Jaehaerys II and Shaera) after 3 successive generations of outward marriages (Aegon V to Betha Blackwood, Maekar to Dyanna Dayne, Daeron II to Myriah Martell). I think you might have misunderstood what I said? Maybe my wording was confusing.

 

So in simple terms, Valyrians are immune to the negative effects of incest. They start to lose this immunity once they add normal people to their family tree, for the same reason not everyone distantly descended from House Targaryen can easily claim a dragon (see Quentyn Martell and a few unfortunate dragonseeds). They've failed to "keep the dragon blood pure."

Edited January 28 by Potsk

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

This is applying real-life expectations of what might happen, to a race of magic elves in a fantasy story.

I don't think GRRM sees Valyrians as magical elves who are immune to the negative effects of inbreeding.

His portrayal of the Targaryens is consistent with an understanding of the real world negative effects of inbreeding, applied to a fantasy breed of humans.

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

What would be the literary purpose of giving one of the Targaryens a birth defect if it's just a regular birth defect that has nothing to do with the fact that his parents are siblings?

When the parents are siblings, it shows that GRRM is aware of the negative effects of inbreeding ("inbreeding depression").  When the parents are, say, a Targ and a non-Targ, the defect shows that GRRM is aware that outbreeding an inbred strain is not a surefire cure, and has its own dangers ("outbreeding depression").

The literary purpose is to create colorful and unique characters like Bloodraven and Shiera Seastar.  No-one is required to understand the underlying genetic theory.

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

That's what I think GRRM is getting at by giving Jaehaerys a six-fingered hand. More specifically, I think he's suggesting that such traits would never manifest if the Targaryens didn't outbreed.

Right.  "Outbreeding depression" and "inbreeding depression" can and do manifest themselves in different ways.  Exactly as in the real world.  Trying to rescue an inbred line through outbreeding has its own dangers, exactly as in the real world.

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

*One instance of full sibling incest (his parents Jaehaerys II and Shaera) after 3 successive generations of outward marriages (Aegon V to Betha Blackwood, Maekar to Dyanna Dayne, Daeron II to Myriah Martell). I think you might have misunderstood what I said? Maybe my wording was confusing.

And when he married his own sister, that made two successive generations. 

But if you are suggesting it is a bad idea to marry one's own sister, no matter how outbred your previous generations are, then I agree with you.  The statistics bear that out.  There are risks.  And Mad King Aerys is consistent with that.

 

Edited January 28 by Gilbert Green

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I'm guessing you mean that some readers genuinely think that incest has no negative effects when Targaryens do it?  If so, I agree that the the text provides plenty of evidence of negative effects.

The Exceptionalism doctrine is not really about that though.  It is strictly a moral issue.  It's the Targs saying that certain moral rules that apply to lesser mortals do not apply to them.

Both. People argue that incest has no negative effects and that Targaryens are immune from/resistant to disease (unlike the 'lesser men') even though we see plenty of Targaryens get sick and die of disease. And for some reason they subscribe to the idea that the Targaryens are better than lesser men just by virtue of being Valyrian...

Edited January 28 by Craving Peaches

[Potsk]

30 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

even though we see plenty of Targaryens get sick and die of disease..

Dragons keep them from getting sick. The ones who died of disease didn't have dragons.

Regarding Daenerys, who died of the Shivers: "Near dawn, Jaehaerys bolted to his feet shouting that a dragon was needed, that his daughter must have a dragon, and ravens took wing for Dragonstone, instructing the Dragonkeepers there to bring a hatchling to the Red Keep at once."

Regarding Aenys: "the boy was small at birth and sickly. He cried all the time, and it was said that his limbs were spindly, his eyes small and watery, and that the king's maesters feared for his survival. [...] And the prince was slow to grow as well. Not until he was given the young dragon Quicksilver, a hatchling born that same year on Dragonstone, did Aenys Targaryen begin to thrive."

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

Dragons keep them from getting sick. The ones who died of disease didn't have dragons.

That's not the same as the idea that the Targaryens are innately, on their own, resistant/immune to disease just because they are Valyrian, which is what I have an issue with because it is contradicted by the text. Dragons granting disease resistance is arguably backed up by the text, as you have shown.

[the trees have eyes]

Bit late but in no particular order:

Lemongate or in general Dany =/= daughter of Aerys and Rhaella

Bloodraven =/= the three-eyed crow who is really Old Nan

Euron = Daario

Howland Reed = The High Septon

Qhorin Halfhand = Gerold Hightower

Mance Raydar = Rhaegar or Arthur Dayne

Jojenpaste

Time-traveling Bran

Bloodraven as Master of the Universe or at least master manipulator behind events

There's an ice dragon buried under WF

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

Euron = Daario

I see people suggest that this one cannot be discounted because it is not impossible but shouldn't travel times render it impossible? I know Euron can sacrifice people to get good winds but even with good winds there is a limit to how fast he can go. Especially with the distances involved I don't see how it is doable.

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I see people suggest that this one cannot be discounted because it is not impossible but shouldn't travel times render it impossible?

I've never seen such an argument.  Not one that addresses Euron's implied power to control the winds; or the "Cavill on Chronology" in ASOS. 

Also what exactly is "it" that has been rendered impossible?  Do you have in mind a specific journey, at a specific time, at a specific speed, in accordance with a specific timeline?

But people don't like it because they don't like it because they don't like it, I guess.

6 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

 I know Euron can sacrifice people to get good winds but even with good winds there is a limit to how fast he can go.

What limit do you propose?

12 knots x 1.15 = 13.8 mph (x24) = 331 miles per day x14 = 4,621 miles in 2 weeks.

At a steady 9 knots or a steady 6 knots it would take 3 weeks or 4 weeks, respectively, to cover the same distance.

And how far is it from Slavers Bay to the Iron Islands?  Maybe about that.  Maybe more.  Maybe less.   Depends what guesstimates you make or how you do the calculations.  Which is just another a way of saying that it is up to GRRM.

Some have claimed that viking ships can do 15 knots.  Don't know if it is true, but maybe a fantasy viking ship can.

Of course, you can't do that steadily, because you can't control the winds.  But the premise is that Euron can control the winds.  And that really is a big deal.

6 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

 Especially with the distances involved I don't see how it is doable.

What distance have you calculated?

I can sympathize with the aesthetic objection that readers don't like to see the author using magic tricks to make the world small, when they have gone to the trouble of escaping from modernity. to a fantasy world where the world was large.

But by any other measure, this really is low-key magic, compared to (say) flying around on dragons.  Which I'm sure is much faster as well.

Jules Verne's 1872 novel "Around the World in 80 Days" begins with the remark that the world is growing small.  In that novel, Phileas Fogg used steamers that did only a steady 9 knots.

Aesthetic objections are just that.  People did not like it when Cat came back as a zombie.  Does not mean GRRM did not do it.

Also, poor GRRM seems unmotivated to finish the series.  Maybe the theories y'all hate are exactly the ones he was planning.  Poor GRRM. 

Edited January 31 by Gilbert Green

[sifth]

Euron is warging into Daario. It all makes complete sense, lol

[SeanF]

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I see people suggest that this one cannot be discounted because it is not impossible but shouldn't travel times render it impossible? I know Euron can sacrifice people to get good winds but even with good winds there is a limit to how fast he can go. Especially with the distances involved I don't see how it is doable.

I can’t disprove that Daario is Euron, any more than I can disprove he is a faceless man.

One just applies Occam’s razor.

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Jules Verne's 1872 novel "Around the World in 80 Days"

I think GRRM has said the planet Westeros is on is bigger than earth.

8 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Also what exactly is "it" that has been rendered impossible? 

The theory that Euron is Daario. And I never said whether it had been rendered impossible, I said I thought travel times would render it impossible. 

Even if Euron has good winds for the whole journey, and takes the shortcut through the smoking sea that everyone else avoids, he would still have to sail up after reaching the end of Dorne. We are told that a galley sailing to Asshai from Pentos takes 2 years to get there and back with favourable conditions.

Quote

"And the galley that delivered you is on her way to Asshai even now. It will be two years before she returns, if the seas are kind. As for my household, they love me well. None would betray me."

Now, I think we can discount this time frame a lot, Euron probably has a faster ship, good winds, and the distance is less; even so (for example if we divide that time by twelve to give two months travel time), it should still be taking Euron months, not weeks, to get from the Iron Islands to Slaver's Bay.

To be clear, I have no strong opinion on this theory either way. I just don't see how it is possible going by the shipping speeds GRRM has established already.

Edited January 31 by Craving Peaches

[Potsk]

14 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Lemongate or in general Dany =/= daughter of Aerys and Rhaella

That's not what Lemongate is, just a bad subtheory. Lemongate (the lemon tree hinting at false memories) is as real as R+L=J

14 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Time-traveling Bran

We literally see future-Bran time traveling to communicate with Jon in ACOK lol

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Potsk said:

 

We literally see future-Bran time traveling to communicate with Jon in ACOK lol

No, that was Bran hiding in the crypts in Winterfell. In Bran's final chapter of ACOK, he mentions talking to Jon in a dream he had, after awakening his third eye.

[Potsk]

28 minutes ago, sifth said:

No, that was Bran hiding in the crypts in Winterfell. In Bran's final chapter of ACOK, he mentions talking to Jon in a dream he had, after awakening his third eye.

You're right, that was a poor choice of argument. I should have used the Hodor reveal (confirmed by GRRM) instead. That is unquestionably time travel.

[sifth]

3 minutes ago, Potsk said:

You're right, that was a poor choice of argument. I should have used the Hodor reveal (confirmed by GRRM) instead. That is unquestionably time travel.

I mean GRRM also mentions in that interview, that his version of "hold the door" will be different. So it's conjecture at best, if his version will include time travel.

[Potsk]

Just now, sifth said:

I mean GRRM also mentions in that interview, that his version of "hold the door" will be different.

And he explained exactly how it will be different: in what "hold the door" means. In the show he's physically holding a door, in the book he'll be defending a door with a weapon.

10 minutes ago, sifth said:

So it's conjecture at best, if his version will include time travel.

What else? He visited Maggy the Frog and let her taste his blood, so she cursed his future, told him the valonqar would make him "hold the door" but he could never ask anyone what valonqar means because all he could say now was hodor? Always knew Hodor and Cersei were connected somehow...

[sifth]

46 minutes ago, Potsk said:

And he explained exactly how it will be different: in what "hold the door" means. In the show he's physically holding a door, in the book he'll be defending a door with a weapon.

What else? He visited Maggy the Frog and let her taste his blood, so she cursed his future, told him the valonqar would make him "hold the door" but he could never ask anyone what valonqar means because all he could say now was hodor? Always knew Hodor and Cersei were connected somehow...

Just saying it’s conjecture until it actually happens. As seen from GRRM’s notes, the guy changes his mind all the time. 

[Gilbert Green]

13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

I think GRRM has said the planet Westeros is on is bigger than earth.

I don't recall the quote.  But it won't become relevant until someone tries to circumnavigate the planet.  So it does not help us here.

13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The theory that Euron is Daario. And I never said whether it had been rendered impossible, I said I thought travel times would render it impossible. 
Even if Euron has good winds for the whole journey, and takes the shortcut through the smoking sea that everyone else avoids, he would still have to sail up after reaching the end of Dorne.

And how far to you suppose that total distance to be?  This is your argument.  Complete it.

13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

We are told that a galley sailing to Asshai from Pentos takes 2 years to get there and back with favourable conditions.

Illyrio is merely saying that he is familiar with the schedule of a particular trading galley and does not expect it to return for two years.  Probably because it will be too busy trading at the various ports along the way.

He says nothing about speeds or conditions favorable to speed.  The phrase "if the seas are kind" merely references the possibility that the vessel may not return at all, due to the very real dangers of ocean travel.

Illyrio is not making Phileas Fogg style bets about how fast one can get to Asshai and back.  He's not talking about a race.

And of course even sailors don't spend all their time at sea.  A 2 year voyage is going to have down time.

13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Now, I think we can discount this time frame a lot, Euron probably has a faster ship, good winds, and the distance is less; even so (for example if we divide that time by twelve to give two months travel time), it should still be taking Euron months, not weeks, to get from the Iron Islands to Slaver's Bay.

I already told you the distance that can be covered with a steady 12 knots.  If you prefer months to weeks, then multiply everything by 4.25 and you get over 19k miles.

Is that your position, that the distance from Meereen to the Iron Islands must be over 19k miles?  I don't think that can be matched with those estimates that use the Wall as a legend.  I think all you have proven here is that your argument is flawed and you should question your assumptions, such as your interpretation of Illyrio's words.

Or are you saying that 12 knots is too fast?  That I did my math wrong?  What exactly?

13 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

To be clear, I have no strong opinion on this theory either way. I just don't see how it is possible going by the shipping speeds GRRM has established already.

Well then, your objection has been answered.  And I've done the math for you.  Yes, it requires magic for constant favorable winds, but you said you were willing to concede that.  What now?

Edited January 31 by Gilbert Green