kissdbyfire Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UN secretary general condemns Israel for 'heartbreaking' and 'unprecedented' killings in Gaza. Quote The UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, has denounced Israel for the “heartbreaking” killings of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, Reuters reports. “Israel’s military operations have spread mass destruction and killed civilians on a scale unprecedented during my time as secretary-general,” Guterres said at the opening of a summit of the G77+China in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. “This is heartbreaking and utterly unacceptable. The Middle East is a tinder-box, we must do all we can to prevent conflict from igniting across the region.” His comments come after Gaza health authorities said that Israeli strikes have killed over 25,000 Palestinians since 7 October. Guterres added that the refusal to accept the two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians is totally unacceptable, saying denying Palestinians the right to statehood “would indefinitely prolong a conflict that has become a major threat to global peace and security”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/21/middle-east-crisis-live-netanyahu-defies-biden-on-palestinian-statehood-us-personnel-injured-in-attack-on-iraqi-base Zorral, straits, Craving Peaches and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A few things: Polling for a new government shows Netanyahu is still far behind but shockingly not dead in the election. Also of note is that Gantz does not have enough votes for his party by itself, which is one of the reasons the previously created government by him fell apart. Elections are currently scheduled for 2026 which Netanyahu and his allies still control as far as it goes, so not a great chance for it to happen sooner. Daily casualties have fallen. They're still quite high, but we have gone from 300/day to around 180/day with the shift to southern Gaza. I'll also note that this may be an accounting error as the fighting in Southern Gaza is a lot harder to get information from and we have had multiple internet and phone blackouts during this time. Netanyahu has stressed that he's created a framework for freeing more hostages, but several Israeli military say that the choice at this point is stopping Hamas or getting hostages back, and they won't be able to do both. I don't get this, exactly, but the idea that Israel is using military force to secure the hostages is obviously wrong from a success standpoint and from a standpoint that this is why Israel is doing what it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Netanyahu has stressed that he's created a framework for freeing more hostages, but several Israeli military say that the choice at this point is stopping Hamas or getting hostages back, and they won't be able to do both. I don't get this, exactly, but the idea that Israel is using military force to secure the hostages is obviously wrong from a success standpoint and from a standpoint that this is why Israel is doing what it's doing. I saw a few reports about this. But yeah, many of us have been saying this from the start, and given how strongly others disagreed w/ us, I must say it is a relief to see some respected IDF brass saying the same thing we said. One of these top military persons is, iirc, retired and father of a fallen IDF soldier? I of course agree wholeheartedly w/ the families of the hostages, as per the article you linked: ”Families of hostages say the return of their loved ones should take precedence over erasing Hamas.” ETA: added “some” to make it clearer, even though I never said “all”. Edited January 22 by kissdbyfire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It's worth noting that other members of the IDF general staff disagree with their colleagues. Good to pretend that everyone who thinks the way you do are the only people who exist, but it ain't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No one, nothing, nowhere is immune from history being denied, rewritten, removed -- Growing Oct. 7 ‘truther’ groups say Hamas massacre was a false flag In city council hearings, protests and online, a growing movement with ties to Holocaust denial is effacing history in real-time https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/01/21/hamas-attack-october-7-conspiracy-israel/ Quote .... But Oct. 7 denial is spreading. A small but growing group denies the basic facts of the attacks, pushing a spectrum of falsehoods and misleading narratives that minimize the violence or dispute its origins. Some argue the ambush was staged by the Israeli military to justify an invasion of Gaza. Others say that some 240 hostages Hamas took into Gaza were actually kidnapped by Israel. Some contend the United States is behind the plot. These untrue and misleading narratives have been seeded on social media, where hashtags and terms linking Israel to “false flag” — a staged event that casts blame on another party — tripled on services including TikTok, Reddit and 4chan in the weeks after the attacks, according to the Network Contagion Research Institute, a nonprofit tracking disinformation. It’s bleeding into the real world: Demonstrators have shouted the claim at anti-Israel protests and have used it to justify removing posters of hostages in cities like London and Chicago. At a November city council meeting in Oakland, Calif., multiple residents disputed the veracity of the attack. .... In the meantime -- Protesters Storm Meeting at Israel’s Parliament to Demand More Action on Hostages Advocates and relatives of hostages urged lawmakers to do more to free their loved ones. “Shame on you!” one yelled. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/world/middleeast/israel-parliament-hamas-hostages-protest.html Quote .... Over the past week, several current and former Israeli security officials have suggested that making a deal with Hamas would be the only way to bring the hostages back to Israel safely. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has continued to speak of both eliminating Hamas in Gaza and returning the hostages. .... And here in the US, yes, Bernie too --- Growing number of Senate Democrats question Biden’s Israel strategy Discomfort with Israel’s onslaught, which started with the party’s liberals, is moving to the Democratic mainstream https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/19/senate-democrats-question-biden-israel/ Quote Five Senate Democrats on Friday signed onto a measure that would condition aid to Israel on its compliance with international law, bringing the total number of co-sponsors to 18. And a prominent Democrat, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia, is rounding up support for his amendment to stop President Biden from circumventing Congress when he orders weapons transfers to Israel, a maneuver the president has pursued twice in recent months. Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter. Earlier this week, 11 senators voted for a bill by Sen. Bernie Sanders aimed at forcing the Biden administration to examine potential human rights abuses by Israel. After weeks of unquestioning support, the Senate is emerging as a center of resistance to Biden’s unwavering embrace of Israel — at least in modest ways — as even centrist Democrats are signaling their discomfort with the president’s “bear hug” of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A number of prominent Democrats have proposed or backed measures that aim to hold Israel accountable or to shift American strategy, even if they are unlikely to garner enough support to pass. .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Ran said: It's worth noting that other members of the IDF general staff disagree with their colleagues. Good to pretend that everyone who thinks the way you do are the only people who exist, but it ain't so. Citation needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 23 Author Share Posted January 23 https://www.972mag.com/hamas-fatah-elections-israel-arrogance/ Israeli arrogance thwarted a Palestinian political path. October 7 revealed the cost Quote In February and March 2021, Fatah and Hamas, the two rival Palestinian political parties, reached an agreement to hold elections for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority, its Legislative Council, and Hamas’ entry into the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The elections were planned to take place in accordance with the Oslo Accords, after which negotiations would continue with Israel toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. The agreement included a commitment to uphold international law, establish a state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, recognize the PLO as the legitimate and exclusive umbrella framework, conduct a peaceful popular struggle, and transfer the separate government in the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority. President Mahmoud Abbas sent the agreement to the new Biden administration and European governments in the hope that they would support holding national elections with Hamas’ participation, and would then pressure Israel to allow voting across the occupied territories, including in East Jerusalem. In Abbas’ eyes at the time, Hamas’ signing of the deal was a winning card; apparently, it included a concession by Hamas not to put forward a presidential candidate on its behalf, thus leaving it to Abbas to run again virtually unchallenged. The Fatah-Hamas agreement did not come out of the blue. Four years earlier, Hamas published its “General Principles and Policies,” a revised organizational document that significantly deviated from the fundamentalist principles of the group’s original charter from 1987, and that effectively accepted the Oslo Accords as an existing political fact. Even earlier, in 2014, in the presence and mediations of the Emir of Qatar in Doha, the Fatah leadership headed by Abbas met with the Hamas leadership headed by Khaled Mash’al. The full minutes of the talks were published in an official Emirati document. In essence, the message of the Hamas leadership was clear: “If you in Fatah are convinced that you can get a state from Israel along the 1967 lines through negotiations, go for it. We will not interfere.” As expected, Israel objected to including East Jerusalem in the elections, seeing it as undermining its claims to sovereignty over the occupied and annexed part of the city. Still, Hamas offered to hold the elections anyway, and accepted the restriction imposed by Israel. But Israel and the United States exerted heavy pressure on Abbas to cancel them all the same. Palestinians vote during the Palestinian local elections, in the West Bank city of Hebron, March 26, 2022. (Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90) There were certainly political reasons for Abbas to call off the elections and for Hamas to push for them. Public opinion polls showed that the vast majority of Palestinians wanted Abbas to end his tenure, and that Hamas could stand to win another electoral victory. However, those polls also indicated that Marwan Barghouti, the prominent political prisoner who intended to run from his Israeli jail cell, would win over any other presidential candidate. Had elections not been canceled, and a popular leader emerged democratically, we would likely be in a very different political reality. In the end, Abbas capitulated under severe pressure. The “Unity Intifada” began a few days later, and with it, Hamas’ Operation “Sword of Jerusalem” and Israel’s “Operation Guardian of the Walls.” According to reports in the New York Times and Washington Post, it was around that same time that Al-Aqsa Brigades, Hamas’ military wing, began conceiving and planning what would become “Al-Aqsa Flood” — the murderous assault of October 7. Zorral, straits and Relic 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said: There were certainly political reasons for Abbas to call off the elections and for Hamas to push for them. Nice burying of the real lede here. Abbas cancelled them because he was going to suffer a crushing defeat, and it's the main reason that he was "pressured". Even if Israel had said nothing, and the article's title implies that Israel alone was decisive, Abbas would have cancelled. The non-partisan Carnegie Foundation recounts the history and the East Jerusalem objection from Israel was simply an excuse that Abbas used, to try and shift the blame away from the fact that he had rotted out Fatah and had alienated enough people to have real rivals who would split the vote and give Hamas the win. There's a reason why all these people didn't want Hamas to win more power than it had: jihadists are bad for functioning states. Just look at the mess that is Lebanon, saddled with Hezbollah as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Like I keep saying, both sides need new, younger leaders who are willing to bury the past and become friends. Ran, wiedzma and kissdbyfire 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Mr. Chatywin et al. said: Like I keep saying, both sides need new, younger leaders who are willing to bury the past and become friends. Abbas is useless. The idea that Barghouti is a way forward, as this +987 article argues, is nonsense -- his popularity is based on his murderous intifada credentials, where do people get any idea that he'd be someone willing or capable to seek peace? Easy enough for him to mouth words of peace while imprisoned, but it's all just words at present (and I really don't see how he could lead any kind of government while serving life sentences, anyways). Dahlan would be a much better option. The biggest obstacle to Dahlan taking over the PA is Abbas, first, and Hamas second. This is part of why dismantling Hamas as a political force is imperative, since it's the only way forward towards someone who could actually be capable of negotiating peace. Without the pressure of Hamas as a viable party, Dahlan can split the Fatah vote and would definitely beat Abbas. Mr. Chatywin et al. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKitttenGuard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ran said: The non-partisan Carnegie Foundation recounts the history and the East Jerusalem objection from Israel was simply an excuse that Abbas used, to try and shift the blame away from the fact that he had rotted out Fatah and had alienated enough people to have real rivals who would split the vote and give Hamas the win. How is the PA not going be rotten out if it's only apparent function to keep their areas in the West Bank is to Palestinian in line while Israel has a free hand to do what it wants? Quote Dahlan would be a much better option. The biggest obstacle to Dahlan taking over the PA is Abbas, first, and Hamas second. This is part of why dismantling Hamas as a political force is imperative, since it's the only way forward towards someone who could actually be capable of negotiating peace. Without the pressure of Hamas as a viable party, Dahlan can split the Fatah vote and would definitely beat Abbas. What does not matter at all is what the Palestinian people want in their decision as a leader. Edited January 23 by TheKitttenGuard straits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Ran said: Abbas is useless. He always has been. Quote Dahlan would be a much better option. The biggest obstacle to Dahlan taking over the PA is Abbas, first, and Hamas second. This is part of why dismantling Hamas as a political force is imperative, since it's the only way forward towards someone who could actually be capable of negotiating peace. Without the pressure of Hamas as a viable party, Dahlan can split the Fatah vote and would definitely beat Abbas. Dahlan would certainly be better, but he also comes with a lot of baggage and I don't think he would be accepted by either the PA or whatever is left of Hamas. That's why I think someone totally new is needed and frankly I have no answer as to who it should be on any of the sides. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people living there who feel as I do don't know either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said: Dahlan would certainly be better, but he also comes with a lot of baggage and I don't think he would be accepted by either the PA or whatever is left of Hamas. Polling suggests that if the imprisoned Barghouti and Hamas are out of the equation, Dahlan is the next most popular candidate. All within the margin of error, of course. If not him, Mohammad Shtayyeh, the present Prime Minister of Palestine... who is Abbas-aligned, but his record is pretty clean (he's an economics professor, not a militant). Ditto Hussein al-Sheikh. The downside with them, at least, is that they are Fatah members who would probably fight over which of them would succeed Abbas, and could split the vote, plus of course with the PA being pretty corrupt, well, who knows what they've gotten into. But any of the three would do, though Dahlan has more bonafides... and also more baggage, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Ran said: Polling suggests that if the imprisoned Barghouti and Hamas are out of the equation, Dahlan is the next most popular candidate. All within the margin of error, of course. If not him, Mohammad Shtayyeh, the present Prime Minister of Palestine... who is Abbas-aligned, but his record is pretty clean (he's an economics professor, not a militant). Ditto Hussein al-Sheikh. The downside with them, at least, is that they are Fatah members who would probably fight over which of them would succeed Abbas, and could split the vote, plus of course with the PA being pretty corrupt, well, who knows what they've gotten into. But any of the three would do, though Dahlan has more bonafides... and also more baggage, as well. Theoretically I don't disagree and you've done more homework than I have. However, the two bolded points remain the core problems. Idk if Hamas will remain or what will replace them and the infighting that will happen assuming Abbas is gone will be a mess. Israel has only made this worse and they'll be dealing with the same problems which is why I struggle to see a path towards peace. Things are most likely to just get worse. Lovely, right? Edited January 23 by Mr. Chatywin et al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rippounet Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Unconfirmed news right now, but if true, it would finally be a step in the right direction: Quote https://www.axios.com/2024/01/22/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages Israel has given Hamas a proposal through Qatari and Egyptian mediators that includes up to two months of a pause in the fighting as part of a multi-phase deal that would include the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza, two Israeli officials said. Why it matters: While the proposal doesn't include an agreement to end the war, it is the longest period of ceasefire that Israel has offered Hamas since the start of the war. Driving the news: More than 130 hostages are still being held in Gaza. Israeli officials say several dozen hostages either died on October 7 or in the weeks since then. President Biden's adviser Brett McGurk travelled to Egypt on Sunday and will continue to Qatar afterward for talks aimed at making progress in the negotiations to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Qatari and Egyptian mediators have been trying for weeks to bridge the gaps between the parties in order to make progress towards a deal. U.S. officials told Axios that reaching such an agreement might be the only path that could lead to a ceasefire in Gaza. Behind the scenes: Two Israeli officials said the Israeli war cabinet approved ten days ago the parameters of a new proposal for a hostage deal, which are different from past aspects of deals rejected by Hamas and more forward-leaning than previous Israeli proposals. Israeli officials said they are waiting for a response from Hamas but stressed they are cautiously optimistic about the ability to make progress in the coming days. Reading between the lines, it seems Qatar, Egypt, and the US have been hard at work on this, possibly harder than Israel itself. Regardless, if this goes through, it might be the light at the end of the tunnel. One might even hope that a longer ceasefire would allow Israelis to kick Netanyahu out. A man can hope. Craving Peaches, Zorral, kissdbyfire and 3 others 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mudguard Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'm not optimistic about Netanyahu being kicked out early. To call early elections would require the collapse of his coalition, and since the polling shows that the parties forming the coalition would get destroyed if elections were held now, there isn't any incentive for them to just blow up their coalition and all give up power. Right now, Ben Gvir and Smotrich can threaten to leave the coalition as leverage to force Netanyahu to do what they want, which gives them undue influence on how the war is conducted even though they aren't part of the war cabinet. It's a horrible situation with no near term resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiedzma Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 hours ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said: Like I keep saying, both sides need new, younger leaders who are willing to bury the past and become friends. This will need time but it can happen https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_of_Reconciliation_of_the_Polish_Bishops_to_the_German_Bishops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Widening Mideast Crisis Blast That Killed About 20 Soldiers Linked to Israeli Effort to Create Gaza Buffer Zone "Balakrishnan Rajagopal, the United Nations special rapporteur on the right to adequate housing, said a systematic demolition of Palestinian border homes could constitute a war crime because they pose no immediate threat to Israel." https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/23/world/israel-hamas-gaza-news Quote .... “There is simply no provision in the Geneva Conventions for what Israel is doing along the border, which is kind of a pre-emptive clearing of property,” Mr. Rajagopal said in a phone interview. “On a particular property by property basis, Israel can take action — but not on a widespread basis across the entire border,” Mr. Rajagopal said. “Israel, as the occupying power, has an obligation not to engage in what’s called wanton destruction of property.” The military did not respond to a request for comment on the claims. While Israel has never formally announced the demolition of Palestinian border homes, the concept of a buffer zone lining the length of the Gazan border has been widely discussed by the Israeli news media since early December, when the idea was reported by Reuters. Israeli ministers have also hinted of plans to create such a buffer zone since the first weeks of the war. Eli Cohen, the foreign minister at the time, said that after the war, “the territory of Gaza will also decrease.” Days later, Avi Dichter, the agriculture minister, spoke of creating “a margin” along the Gaza border. “No matter who you are, you will never be able to come close to the Israeli border,” Mr. Dichter said. straits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
straits Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 hours ago, Zorral said: There is simply no provision in the Geneva Conventions for what Israel is doing They could have easily stopped there. Maya Mia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kissdbyfire Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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