A deep dive into the Purple Wedding (could Sansa have been the poisoner?)

[the trees have eyes]

23 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Except that who is going to set aside her marriage to Tyrion for her?  Certainly not the King, whether it be Joffrey or Tommen.  The Lannisters control the kingdom and they don't want to give up Sansa.  So they aren't going to allow the marriage to be annulled, certainly not so Sansa could marry Willas.  And of course at some point the marriage may get consummated.  The Lannisters sure were pushing hard for it.  If push came to shove, Sansa couldn't refuse Tyrion.  

So her only way out is to go through with a plan whereby it looks like Tyrion chokes to death on a morsel of food, and Sansa scoots out of King's Landing, hopefully to either the North or Highgarden where she'll be free to remarry.

If Tyrion is framed for regicide she'll be free of the marriage quick enough.  But above all Sansa wants to escape and ending the marriage to Tyrion isn't nearly as important as her subsequent Vale chapters show.

22 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, she doesn't say We are leaving, she says I am leaving.

She knows perfectly well that the men are not going to be off to war the day after tomorrow, just as she knows that Tyrion is not going to lead a host. So Olenna is not lying. She does want Sansa to come visit Highgarden, at some point, when the time is right and the coast is clear.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Quote

"I am pleased to say that I will be leaving for Highgarden day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war."

She says "Perhaps you would like to accompany me".  That quite literally means to go with her.  It's an odd thing to try and turn into meaning something different like traveling there on her own in a few months time.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Her only motivation is not to wed Sansa to Willas. Her motivation is to preserve her house, her realm and her people from the mad dog tyrant who grinds rival houses into the dirt even after he professes his loyalty to them. Look at his record: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darrys,  . . .  This is what she fears: the Reach burned to ashes, tens of thousands of smallfolk slaughtered and left rotting in the mud, Highgarden razed to the ground, her entire family, even the little children, murdered in cold blood, her line extinguished, forever. Only killing Tyrion can turn the tide on Tywin's relentless march to complete domination over the Reach.

What?  This is a fantastical invention that has no basis in the text.  Indeed the Tyrells have the upper hand over the Lannisters and Mace could basically name his price for supporting them.  But if you really believe it then you should believe that Olenna wanted to kill Tywin, the monstrous world-ending danger you claim she fears so much: there are plenty more Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes after all.

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but the only way any of this works out is if 

Sorry, you've got it all backward.

It does matter because it blows your whole rationale for Petyr's actions out of the water.

22 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

That's absurd.

Do you honestly think Lady Olenna is that great a fool as to take that chance? If so, I have a lovely manse in old Valyria I would dearly love to sell you.

Sorry, but this is utter nonsense.

Nope, sorry.

Dude, everyone has ideas about this, please try and have a little more humility about your own.

14 hours ago, Aebram said:

I just had another thought about this.  I'm honestly not sure if I believe it myself, but it seemed worth posting. It's a continuation of my earlier comment about repressed memories, and whether characters can be unreliable in their own POV, which said in part:

 If one character can repress memories, so can another ... What if it was Tyrion, not Sansa, who poisoned Joffrey?

Tyrion doesn't have a history of repressed memories despite some very unpleasant ones so there's no apparent base to build from (like the unkiss, minor though it is).  He is our POV at the wedding and although drunk we do have his thoughts on leaving before Joffrey gets any nastier so it's hard to marry that up with a pre-conceived plan to off Joffrey.  And the hairnet I feel surely has a purpose other than as a writer's ploy to wrongfoot the readers and characters.

The poisoning is a crime looking for a criminal and as Oberyn tells Tyrion afterwards he thought he could have been accused himself.  I think we can take Tyrion's confusion, then and in later povs, at face value.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The precise details of a murder are ALWAYS improvised. No murderer can EVER predict exactly what their victims and/or the various witnesses will be doing at every precise moment. The plan had plenty of space to create multiple opportunities.

This is not about leaving it to chance: OTHER CHANCES WOULD HAVE EXISTED, had that particular chance not come to pass.

Not this kind of murder, a regicide, literally right in front of no less than a thousand witnesses. Remember, they have to not only poison the wine, but do it without being seen, by anyone.

And murder conspiracies are certainly not improvised to the extent that they have absolutely no idea how to actually commit the murder. Did the Freys just wing it until the right time? No, the staged the whole thing to coincide with the bedding so they retained control of Edmure and his new heir.

In just consider the fallacy of your logic here. The Tyrells were the ones who gifted the single chalice in the first place. So why wait until the 11th hour, hoping against hope that some golden opportunity presents itself, when they could have given separate chalices to Margaery and Joffrey and then just lined his with poison or stuck the crystal on the bottom with wax?

So no, no other chances existed. None presented themselves in the hours prior to the pie-cutting, and the bedding is coming along at any time now. So now they are going to do it right at the most likely time that Margaery gets poisoned too? Come on.

[Hippocras]

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not this kind of murder, a regicide, literally right in front of no less than a thousand witnesses. Remember, they have to not only poison the wine, but do it without being seen, by anyone.

Which is precisely why it DID require on-the spot adaptation to circumstances. Inevitably. But that was worked in to the plan.

[John Suburbs]

23 hours ago, Melifeather said:

This has been my thoughts the last few days. Lady Olenna plucked out a stone, brought it to Margaery, and she dropped it in the chalice.

Not possible. Literally every eye in the room was trained on them as Joffrey and Tyrion were feuding over the chalice both before and after the pie ceremony. In between, it sat right in front of Sansa the whole time while the two of them were down on the floor cutting the pie. Then Joffrey is suddenly back and Tyrion brings the chalice from under the table right to Joffrey's hands. There is absolutely no way Margaery could have done it either time, and then why would she call Joffrey back to share a toast with the wine she has just poisoned?

The simple fact is that the poison could not have been in the wine. If so, Joffrey would have dropped in seconds, just like Cressen. And no, greater dilution or more food in Joffrey's stomach has no bearing on timing with this kind of poison, which works directly on contact.

Only the pie makes sense here. Lady O can do it all by herself, completely out of sight except for the servant holding the plate, and he can be easily distracted. Not to mention the fact that Joffrey tells us, not once but twice, that the pie is what is bothering him -- first at a perfectly lucid moment when he is koffing slightly and turns to the wine to soothe him, and then when he is full-on choking and "it's the pie, kof -- noth . . . pie."

 

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

She says "Perhaps you would like to accompany me".  That quite literally means to go with her.  It's an odd thing to try and turn into meaning something different like traveling there on her own in a few months time.

Like I said, "whilst the men are having their war." Are the men going off to war the day after tomorrow? Not.

She knows perfectly well that Sansa is leaving that night. Otherwise, there is no reason for her to risk her life, and the lives of her entire family, on this.

Quote

What?  This is a fantastical invention that has no basis in the text.  Indeed the Tyrells have the upper hand over the Lannisters and Mace could basically name his price for supporting them.  But if you really believe it then you should believe that Olenna wanted to kill Tywin, the monstrous world-ending danger you claim she fears so much: there are plenty more Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes after all.

This has every basis in text. This is literally the story itself. Highgarden has been the most powerful house throughout the ages, under both the Gardeners and the Tyrells. They can easily field twice if not three times the army as any other house, and they have the Redwyne navy as well. And the Reach has no geographic features that allow it to protect itself, like the other kingdoms do. Meanwhile, Tywin has extended his hold, through conquest and marriage, past the westerlands to the riverlands, crownlands, stormlands, the Iron Throne itself, and now the north -- well more than half the kingdom. This does give him the ability to outraise the Tyrell forces and neutralize their one and only means of defending themselves. These are the plain basic fact, explicitly spelled out in the text.

Tywin is unreachable at the moment. Tyrion is vulnerable. And killing Tywin does not change the basic calculus because Casterly Rock would still remain in Lannister hands, as would the north, riverlands, stormlands, crownlands the the Iron Throne. There are no other Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes because they will have lost Sansa. Without her, they don't have the north.

So my conclusion is based on the actual facts, not made up ones. Hubris has nothing to do with it.

 

[John Suburbs]

16 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Which is precisely why it DID require on-the spot adaptation to circumstances. Inevitably. But that was worked in to the plan.

So instead of providing a chalice just for Joffrey and poisoning that, they wait until they have to make up something on the spot where they have to take the incredible chance of being seen -- just one of the thousand pairs of eyes in the room as all it would take to scotch the entire thing and send them down to the black cells.

And no, it was not worked out in the plan. No one could work out exactly what improbable things Joffrey and Tyrion would do to create their own murder and frame-up. And all of this was necessary because Littlefinger was trying to avoid a problem that didn't exist in the first place. Sorry, but no and no and no and no.

[Hippocras]

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So instead of providing a chalice just for Joffrey and poisoning that, they wait until they have to make up something on the spot where they have to take the incredible chance of being seen -- just one of the thousand pairs of eyes in the room as all it would take to scotch the entire thing and send them down to the black cells.

And no, it was not worked out in the plan. No one could work out exactly what improbable things Joffrey and Tyrion would do to create their own murder and frame-up. And all of this was necessary because Littlefinger was trying to avoid a problem that didn't exist in the first place. Sorry, but no and no and no and no.

The shared chalice is what helps make certain noone suspects the Tyrells IMO. This is why I am sure that Marge must have been given an antidote (even if she didn't know it).

I think Melisandre's ability to drink a whole cup of poisoned wine without being affected was meant in part as a clue that there is indeed an antidote. I don't think Mel is immune to poison. I think she simply has visions and knew what Cressen was planning because she foresaw it. So she came prepared with the antidote and used the scene to increase her power with Stannis and his people.

Olenna knew she would poison the wine. She used the shared chalice as a way to make it seem like Margaery was almost a victim herself, which ensured that noone would remotely suspect the poisoning had anything to do with Margaery.

Dropping a tiny crystal in a cup while everyone is distracted by pigeons and shows is hardly the huge risk you make it out to be. The crystal was too small to be seen, and very few people were close.

 

And you seem to be willfully ignoring my other posts as I have already addressed your other points here. Repeat: the precise circumstances DID NOT MATTER. That was just what happened. If something different had happened at the wedding, the plan could accommodate it.

Edited February 15 by Hippocras

[Melifeather]

19 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not possible. Literally every eye in the room was trained on them as Joffrey and Tyrion were feuding over the chalice both before and after the pie ceremony. In between, it sat right in front of Sansa the whole time while the two of them were down on the floor cutting the pie. Then Joffrey is suddenly back and Tyrion brings the chalice from under the table right to Joffrey's hands. There is absolutely no way Margaery could have done it either time, and then why would she call Joffrey back to share a toast with the wine she has just poisoned?

The simple fact is that the poison could not have been in the wine. If so, Joffrey would have dropped in seconds, just like Cressen. And no, greater dilution or more food in Joffrey's stomach has no bearing on timing with this kind of poison, which works directly on contact.

Only the pie makes sense here. Lady O can do it all by herself, completely out of sight except for the servant holding the plate, and he can be easily distracted. Not to mention the fact that Joffrey tells us, not once but twice, that the pie is what is bothering him -- first at a perfectly lucid moment when he is koffing slightly and turns to the wine to soothe him, and then when he is full-on choking and "it's the pie, kof -- noth . . . pie."

 

I've changed my mind about how the Strangler got into Joffrey after reviewing the text. 

When Maester Cressen died, he got the very last bottom of the wine in the chalice. Melisandre drank most of it first even after noticing that Cressen had dropped something into it. She even comments that it's not too late to dump the wine. She then takes the goblet and drank most of it, but left about an inch at the bottom where the crystals would have sat dissolving and invited Cressen to finish it. I think the reason it worked on him so quickly (and not on her) was because it was heavier and more highly concentrated on the bottom. Did Melisandre's internal fire protect her or were the upper layers of wine not yet infused with the Strangler? I'm thinking now that it would have had to have been stirred to ensure that the poison was mixed throughout.

In the passage from Tyrion VIII, Joffrey's chalice was refilled 3/4's full right before he drank it. I think the crystal was in the flagon and the serving girl dumped the contents of the flagon into the chalice and the crystal sank to the bottom. Joffrey's first gulp then - like Melisandre - did nothing. Only after it sat on the table near Sansa and Tyrion did it dissolve fully and then probably was more concentrated on the bottom of the cup. Joffrey took a big gulp right before eating the pie, so big that wine was dribbling down his face. Surely the heavier concentration of the Strangler was then swept into his mouth?

[Melifeather]

4 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

I think Melisandre's ability to drink a whole cup of poisoned wine without being affected was meant in part as a clue that there is indeed an antidote. I don't think Mel is immune to poison. I think she simply has visions and knew what Cressen was planning because she foresaw it. So she came prepared with the antidote and used the scene to increase her power with Stannis and his people.

I too do not believe Melisandre is immune to poison. Most of Melisandre's powers are tricks and slight of hand.  Like I've already explained in the post above, I suspect the Strangler crystals are heavy and would sink to the bottom where they slowly dissolve. Melisandre drank first and left only an inch in the bottom for Cressen where the concentration of poison was heaviest.

[Hippocras]

3 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I've changed my mind about how the Strangler got into Joffrey after reviewing the text. 

When Maester Cressen died, he got the very last bottom of the wine in the chalice. Melisandre drank most of it first even after noticing that Cressen had dropped something into it. She even comments that it's not too late to dump the wine. She then takes the goblet and drank most of it, but left about an inch at the bottom where the crystals would have sat dissolving and invited Cressen to finish it. I think the reason it worked on him so quickly (and not on her) was because it was heavier and more highly concentrated on the bottom. Did Melisandre's internal fire protect her or were the upper layers of wine not yet infused with the Strangler? I'm thinking now that it would have had to have been stirred to ensure that the poison was mixed throughout.

I think it is simpler than that. I really do. She knew what Cressen was going to do and she prepared herself with an antidote. It would not mattered if she drank all the way to the dregs.

[Frey family reunion]

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

She knows perfectly well that the men are not going to be off to war the day after tomorrow, just as she knows that Tyrion is not going to lead a host. So Olenna is not lying. She does want Sansa to come visit Highgarden, at some point, when the time is right and the coast is clear.

Sansa is not going to be in King's Landing for an extended period of time. She is leaving, that night. She would not be doing this, and risking not only her life but the lives of her entire family, if this was not the case.

You're twisting things up a bit too much.  Olenna tells Sansa that she is leaving the day after next and wishes that invites Sansa to accompany her.  In other words, leave with me the day after next.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

for her own reasons, not his. If Olenna was in on this all the way back in Highgarden, then there is no reason for the hairnet at all -- just find some convenient dead drop somewhere.

Because the hairnet is a only contingency plan, in case the Lannisters marry her to Tyrion.  If Sansa is never married there is no need for a poisoning and Sansa just gets to have a nice hairnet with rare amethysts from Asshai.  But no poison. 

Olenna has no intention of personally poisoning anyone, because she's not going to risk getting caught.  The whole plot would be to get a desperate Sansa to do their dirty work for them.  But Olenna is never going to personally contact Sansa with regards to the hairnet because it's too risky.  Dontos remains the middle man both for Olenna and Petyr,  because he can always be silenced after the fact, and no one is going to believe a drunk Dontos over Olenna.  

Dontos first gives Sansa the hairnet with the instruction to bring it to the wedding.  That it will help free her.  Then when she's married to Tyrion and truly desperate, Dontos approaches her again and  tells her that Olenna is going to put something in her hairnet on the day of the wedding.   She needs to drop what she's given  int into Tyrion's food or drink and she'll be free of her marriage.  

What Olenna perhaps doesn't know is that Dontos is also passing on information for Petyr, for Sansa to find Dontos when everyone at the wedding is distracted and he'll get her out of King's Landing.

When Olenna sees Sansa at the wedding with the hair net, that's Olenna's sign that Sansa is willing to go through with Dontos' instructions.  Then and only then does Sansa get the poison through the hair net.  Olenna also adds some very subtle encouragements of her own as she replaces the stone with the poison.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, you've got it all backward. If there is no reason for Olenna to go through the with poisoning, then why is she in on this plot all the back at Highgarden? What was her reason back then? And do you honestly think that Petyr is fool enough to invite Lady O into this plot unless he is absolutely sure she is going to go through with it? There is no way he can know this way back then, but he is certain of it after Sansa's wedding -- again, because her reasons for killing Tyrion are stronger than his own.

Once again it's a contingency plan to make sure Sansa is available for marriage after Margaery's marriage to Joffrey takes place.  Olenna would suspect that the Lannisters aren't going to maintain their hold of Sansa after her engagement to Joffrey is broken by marrying her to another Lannister, most probably Tyrion.  Pety is counting on this happening.

Now whatever verbal dance Petyr and Olenna play at Highgarden is anyone's guess.  But it comes away with both agreeing that even if Sansa is married, there are ways that the marriage can be ended.  Once Dontos becomes the go between, whether that be from Olenna to Sansa or Petyr to Sansa or both, Pety is always going to be kept informed about how Olenna is going to free up Sansa, if in fact they didn't spell it out to each other from the beginning.  Which they might have if it only concerned Tyrion's death, but I'm fairly certain woudld not have if it concerned Joffrey's death.

And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's.  That's complete hogwash.  Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas.  Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK.  And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

It does matter because it blows your whole rationale for Petyr's actions out of the water. He did not rat out the plan because Sansa's marriage might be delayed. There was no marriage at that point. He ratted out the plan to force Lady Olenna's hand -- now she has no choice but to be the poisoner other than to sit back and let Tywin take the north.

This whole thing about Olenna trying to stop Tywin from taking the North, is your complete fan fiction.  There's nothing to suggest this, other than Olenna wants Winterfell for her House.  That's all there is to it.  This is a power grab by House Tyrell, this has nothing to do with some noble scheme to save the realm from the Lannisters.  

Sansa has always been a valuable prize.  Especially after Bran and Rickon are supposedly killed.  Because that left her after Robb.  And since Robb was in active war against the Iron Throne, it's pretty clear that if or when Robb lost Robb wasn't going to be alive to take Winterfell.  That means Sansa has always been the key to Winterfell even before the Red Wedding. 

She's an extremely valuable prize, and that's not even taking into her account her Stark bloodline which I'm sure Olenna would also covet for her House.  Her House still having a bit of an inferiority complex despite their status as the Head of the Reach.

But yes, Sansa's marriage does force Olenna's hand into poisoning Tyrion, but that doesn't mean Olenna is going to personally drop the poison.  It's too risky and Olenna would have no reason to believe that she would have the opportunity to do it without being caught.  

Manipulating Sansa to do it, though is a different story.  Let Sansa take the risk, and have the poisoner be the one person that would be in the best position to poison Tyrion.

Which has always been the weakest part of your theory that Olenna directly poisoned Tyrion.  GRRM gave us no information that Olenna was in a position to drop the poison in Tyrion's pie.  

We know Olenna and Margaerys walked over when Joffrey was humiliating Tyrion with the wine, but we dont' have any reason to believe that she was still there after the pie came out, or that she had ever gotten close enough to have access to Tyrion's food.  In reality, there is only one person that we know for 100% certainty was in a position to either poison Tyrion's pie, or poison Joffrey's goblet before he took his fatal swallow, and that's Sansa.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Her only motivation is not to wed Sansa to Willas. Her motivation is to preserve her house, her realm and her people from the mad dog tyrant who grinds rival houses into the dirt even after he professes his loyalty to them. Look at his record: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darrys,  . . .  This is what she fears: the Reach burned to ashes, tens of thousands of smallfolk slaughtered and left rotting in the mud, Highgarden razed to the ground, her entire family, even the little children, murdered in cold blood, her line extinguished, forever. Only killing Tyrion can turn the tide on Tywin's relentless march to complete domination over the Reach. Marrying her to Willas is out of reach at this point, and both she and Petyr know this.

Ummm, what?  I'm sorry this makes no sense.  Killing Tyrion doesnt' stalemate House Lannister.  There's a ton of Lannisters out there they could have remarried Sansa to.  None of this diminishes Tywin's power in the slightest.  Tywin is the undisputed head of House Lannister, including uncles, cousins, ect.  Whatever Lannister they would have married Sansa to after Tyrion's death would have still delivered Winterfell into the House Lannister's treasure chest.

And I'm still not sure why you think that Sansa couldn't be married to Willas after Tyrion's death.  You've never explained that.

On 2/14/2024 at 10:23 AM, John Suburbs said:

Of course she would. Petyr has his own motivations for killing Tyrion, namely, his head remaining on his shoulders. And the simple fact is that she is his pawn. She has no choice. Neither of them do. That's the only way a plot like this can succeed, when both parties suffer supreme consequences in failure or betrayal.

There is absolutely no reason to think Olenna provided the poison. A rich lady like her, was this her one and only crystal? Cressen had six. So this whole theory is untenable. If Olenna is the poisoner and she has the poison all along, there is no reason to give it to anyone and risk being double-crossed.

  For all I know Olenna, has a stockpile of poison, but why bring more than one crystal to the wedding?  She's only planning on one person being poisoned, so having more than one poison crystal does is create a chance of being caught with poison that causes symptoms of choking at a wedding where someone chokes to death.  And her reason for passing it to Sansa is simple, as stated numerous times.  Sansa has the motive to poison Tyrion, and Sansa has the opportunity to poison Tyrion, since she's the only one sitting next to Tyrion other than Garlan Tyrell.

And Garlan doesnt' seem like the type that would agree to poison Tyrion.  Olenna doesn't have the opportunity to do it, at least no unobserved.  Remeber she's not much taller than Tyrion, and not terribly mobile.  How you expect her to find a way to Tyrion's side to poison him without anyone observing this is anyone guess.  Plus, why would she take the chance of doing it herself and getting caught.

Like Petyr said, "clean hands".  Always get someone else to do your dirty work for you.  That's what Olenna wants from Sansa.

Edited February 15 by Frey family reunion

[Hippocras]

@Frey family reunion you make a great many interesting points, but I still can't agree with the central premise that Sansa is lying to readers in her own POV. I really think that would be a level of deception that readers would not accept from the author, no matter how fun the books are. It is a writing betrayal.

I know that suppressed and unreliable memories exist, and GRRM even sometimes uses them. But for lying to us about this... it really just feels convoluted and unnecessary. Littlefinger is a liar. But in this case, he is lying mostly by omission. By what he leaves out. What he does admit to is true IMO.

So did Olenna drop in the poison herself? Maybe. Noone watches an old lady all that closely, especially not when there is a petulant boy king putting on a display of over-the-top nastiness and a beautiful bride by his side. So while I can understand your point about keeping her hands clean, I would argue she was in the best position to get away with it unobserved. Sansa was a beautiful young woman seated beside an ugly man she was forced to marry, who belonged to a family that murdered hers. Curious and gossiping eyes would have been on Sansa the whole time. Tyrion as well. But not Olenna.

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Hippocras said:

@Frey family reunion you make a great many interesting points, but I still can't agree with the central premise that Sansa is lying to readers in her own POV. I really think that would be a level of deception that readers would not accept from the author, no matter how fun the books are. It is a writing betrayal.

I know that suppressed and unreliable memories exist, and GRRM even sometimes uses them. But for lying to us about this... it really just feels convoluted and unnecessary. Littlefinger is a liar. But in this case, he is lying mostly by omission. By what he leaves out. What he does admit to is true IMO.

So did Olenna drop in the poison herself? Maybe. Noone watches an old lady all that closely, especially not when there is a petulant boy king putting on a display of over-the-top nastiness and a beautiful bride by his side. So while I can understand your point about keeping her hands clean, I would argue she was in the best position to get away with it unobserved. Sansa was a beautiful young woman seated beside an ugly man she was forced to marry, who belonged to a family that murdered hers. Curious and gossiping eyes would have been on Sansa the whole time. Tyrion as well. But not Olenna.

I understand this position.  If you can’t accept that the author would make a POV who represses her memories, then this theory isn’t for you, and I would anticipate probably not for most people.

I think the big problem most would have is that the repressed memories would have to occur almost in real time.  I think readers have an easier time with the idea that Eddard may have repressed memories from the fairly distant past concerning Lyanna, but having Sansa repress a memory from an event that just happened might be too much.  I get it.

A while back George responded to a question concerning the purple wedding, where the question pretty much assumed that Olenna did the poisoning.  GRRM responded and then added that Olenna taking credit as being the poisoner was from the show only, and he might have a surprise up his sleeve.  Of course that also implies that he might not have a surprise up his sleeve.

ETA here’s the exact quote:

Quote

In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

I think if George does give a twist, I think Sansa actually being the poisoner may very well be the twist that he’ll give us.  I just think he actually did lay the ground work for it in the text, which hopefully I pointed out.  Of course maybe he decides not to give a twist, in which case I assume that the event played as Littlefinger describes.

But as for Littlefinger, one thing that needs to be kept in mind is that he wasn’t actually at the wedding.  So of course there is the possibility that he’s just as much in the dark as to why Joffrey was poisoned and  who poisoned Joffrey, as Sansa claims to be.  But of course Littlefinger is never going to let on, especially to Sansa, that he’s not in complete control of the situation.  And the one thing the guy is very good at is thinking quickly on his feet.  So perhaps he either thinks Sansa is playing her own game by feigning ignorance, which he plays along with, or he may genuinely not know who would have poisoned Joffrey if not Sansa, unless of course it was the one other person at the wedding who would have at some point possessed poison, and also possessed a motive for killing Joffrey.

But as for your last point, no I don’t think I agree with it.  There is no reason to assume that the audience would be laser focused on Sansa or what she was doing sitting next to Tyrion.  But for the moment, let’s say you’re right and everyone is ignoring the king, the queen, the spectacle and everything else and just staring at the dias where Tyrion and Sansa are seated.  That’s where Olenna would have had to go to poison the food or drink that Joffrey either ate or drank.  Wouldn’t that mean that her presence at that exact moment also be noted? 

And the one thing that gets forgotten is just how small Olenna is.  And she uses a walking cane.  If she poisoned Joffrey’s wine it had to be after it was laid on the table in front of Tyrion.

For Tyrion to pick retrieve the chalice he had to stand on the table to get it.  How does the equally tiny Olenna put herself in a position to drop the poison in Joffrey’s chalice?  And how would she do it without attracting attention to herself?

Edited February 15 by Frey family reunion

[Aebram]

8 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I too do not believe Melisandre is immune to poison. Most of Melisandre's powers are tricks and slight of hand.  Like I've already explained in the post above, I suspect the Strangler crystals are heavy and would sink to the bottom where they slowly dissolve. Melisandre drank first and left only an inch in the bottom for Cressen where the concentration of poison was heaviest.

There's another possible explanation. For some poisons, a person can develop an immunity by exposing himself to small, non-lethal doses. Melisandre's training may have included some of that. Come to think of it, Arya's training by the Faceless Men may have included this as well:

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Poisons and potions were for the afternoons. She had smell and touch and taste to help her, but touch and taste could be perilous when grinding poisons, and with some of the waif’s more toxic concoctions even smell was less than safe. Burned pinky tips and blistered lips became familiar to her, and once she made herself so sick she could not keep down any food for days. (Dance 45)

 

[Hippocras]

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

But for the moment, let’s say you’re right and everyone is ignoring the king, the queen, the spectacle and everything else and just staring at the dias where Tyrion and Sansa are seated.  T

Oh I did not say that. Quite the opposite. I said directly that the king was making a petulant show and he had a beautiful bride by his side. Eyes were watching the king. Eyes were watching Margaery. But several curious people would also have been watching Sansa and Tyrion, that is all.

The point is, not very many people pay much attention to little old ladies unless they do something demanding attention - standing on the table would count of course, but then if Olenna really could not reach (debatable), she did have family members and minions who were available, so not a huge obstacle IMO.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The shared chalice is what helps make certain noone suspects the Tyrells IMO. This is why I am sure that Marge must have been given an antidote (even if she didn't know it).

I think Melisandre's ability to drink a whole cup of poisoned wine without being affected was meant in part as a clue that there is indeed an antidote. I don't think Mel is immune to poison. I think she simply has visions and knew what Cressen was planning because she foresaw it. So she came prepared with the antidote and used the scene to increase her power with Stannis and his people.

Olenna knew she would poison the wine. She used the shared chalice as a way to make it seem like Margaery was almost a victim herself, which ensured that noone would remotely suspect the poisoning had anything to do with Margaery.

So you are not only the one ignoring my points, but you are ignoring the basic, elementary facts.

 

 

Just think all of this through and you'll see how ridiculous it is. How is anyone supposed to prevent Margaery from drinking even in the unlikely event Joffrey drinks first. What is she going to do for the next 30 seconds or so until Joffrey drops, only to be standing there holding the chalice with a dead king on the floor?

Melisandre was immune to the wine by some magical power. My suspicion is that she is already dead. But clearly she did not have any normal resistance to a poison the killed Cressen in a matter of seconds. But supposed Margaery did have an antidote, and she drinks, only to have Joffrey die and she lives? Who else but her can be the poisoner now? And in the worst case scenario, she drinks first and then Joffrey dies. Then there is no question who poisoned the king, even if in the utterly unpredictable and unforeseeable event that Tyrion did pour the wine.

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Dropping a tiny crystal in a cup while everyone is distracted by pigeons and shows is hardly the huge risk you make it out to be. The crystal was too small to be seen, and very few people were close.

There are literally a thousand pairs of eyes in the room, 99 percent of which are facing the head table, plus servants, guards and who knows how many little birds in the rafters. It's not a matter of seeing the crystal. The odds of no one see this rapid and sudden movement to the rim of the chalice are infinitesimally small, so this is about as extreme a risk as humanly possible. And whoever gets stuck with this task at the very last minute, because it could not be Olenna, would have to screw up their courage to commit regicide with little to no preparation, knowing that if they are spotted by just one person looking their way they are in for a kind of death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can imagine.

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And you seem to be willfully ignoring my other posts as I have already addressed your other points here. Repeat: the precise circumstances DID NOT MATTER. That was just what happened. If something different had happened at the wedding, the plan could accommodate it.

Wrong. The circumstances matter a great deal. Remember, this is not just a murder, but a murder and a frame-up. This entire intricate dance with the chalice must go off perfectly or else all the risks they are taking are pointless: Joffrey lives and murders Margaery that very night, and Sansa is still married to Tyrion, still in King's Landing, and Tywin still has the north. And all of this is only necessary because for some reason Littlefinger wanted to scotch the Willas plan which wasn't going to happen until after the wedding, after he had already made off with Sansa.

Edited February 16 by John Suburbs

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I've changed my mind about how the Strangler got into Joffrey after reviewing the text. 

When Maester Cressen died, he got the very last bottom of the wine in the chalice. Melisandre drank most of it first even after noticing that Cressen had dropped something into it. She even comments that it's not too late to dump the wine. She then takes the goblet and drank most of it, but left about an inch at the bottom where the crystals would have sat dissolving and invited Cressen to finish it. I think the reason it worked on him so quickly (and not on her) was because it was heavier and more highly concentrated on the bottom. Did Melisandre's internal fire protect her or were the upper layers of wine not yet infused with the Strangler? I'm thinking now that it would have had to have been stirred to ensure that the poison was mixed throughout.

In the passage from Tyrion VIII, Joffrey's chalice was refilled 3/4's full right before he drank it. I think the crystal was in the flagon and the serving girl dumped the contents of the flagon into the chalice and the crystal sank to the bottom. Joffrey's first gulp then - like Melisandre - did nothing. Only after it sat on the table near Sansa and Tyrion did it dissolve fully and then probably was more concentrated on the bottom of the cup. Joffrey took a big gulp right before eating the pie, so big that wine was dribbling down his face. Surely the heavier concentration of the Strangler was then swept into his mouth?

Again, no. If the strangler sinks to the bottom and just sits there dissolving, then it would do the same when Mel tipped the goblet up to drain all but the last inch. My suspicion is that Mel did not suffer any effects because she is already dead. It's the same reason she doesn't eat or sleep.

Likewise, Joffrey tipped the chalice up-end. Tyrion sees his throat working and the rivulets running down his neck. So why does the crystal sink rapidly in one situation, but not another? At the end of the scene, of course, Tyrion sees "deep purple" wine. But realize what has taken place in this time: Joffrey tried to take a second drink but barfed up the contents of his mouth into the chalice just before dropping it. So the dregs held wine, pie and poison (probably the bulk to the dissolved crystal), all of which would turn it an unnatural color.

If the wine had been poisoned before that, then the "deep purple" wine is what Joffrey would have been drinking, which means he was not only getting a more concentrated dose than Cressen's normal-looking wine, but he is consuming vastly greater quantities as well -- multiple huge chugs, one after another after another . . . And even after all this, it still took about 30 seconds to get to the first tiny kof, and then another 15 or so for the actual choking. Cressen was on his knees after a single half-swallow in about eight, maybe ten, seconds.

Plus, when you look into the actual science, relative concentration of a contact poison like the strangler would have no bearing on the timing of the attack, just the intensity. If you swallowed a shot of ammonia, it would burn you instantly, and you might die. If you poured it into a large glass of water, it would still burn instantly, but not as badly. If you placed a tiny drop of ammonia into a large glass of water, it might not burn at all, but then the drop won't reconcentrate itself once inside your body to come back and burn your throat. That's not the way human, or animal, physiology works -- and Martin, the only writer to put zombies on the page who understands what happens in the hands and feet when the heart stops beating, would certainly know this. And we know for a fact that he does because he has Qyburn explain this exact thing to Cersei early in Feast.

And the idea that this highly lethal, extremely rare and very expensive poison would just sit at the bottom of a cup, flagon, or chalice, taking its sweet time to dissolve, is a non-starter. If that's the way it worked, then deploying it in crystal form would be the last thing anyone would do. They would crush it into a powder so the evidence of foul play is removed immediately.

So when we look at all the actual facts, not the imaginary ones, the answer is crystal clear (sorry): Lady Olenna did the pie all by herself -- no friends, no family, no trusted servants. A quick pinch, out of sight from everyone, and it was done. This is why the pie was "a bit dry", because the crystal had drawn in the available moisture as it dissolved, and it's why Joffrey literally tells us, "it's the pie, kof, pie."

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

You're twisting things up a bit too much.  Olenna tells Sansa that she is leaving the day after next and wishes that invites Sansa to accompany her.  In other words, leave with me the day after next.

 

Olenna has no intention of personally poisoning anyone, because she's not going to risk getting caught.  The whole plot would be to get a desperate Sansa to do their dirty work for them.  But Olenna is never going to personally contact Sansa with regards to the hairnet because it's too risky.  Dontos remains the middle man both for Olenna and Petyr,  because he can always be silenced after the fact, and no one is going to believe a drunk Dontos over Olenna.  

Dontos first gives Sansa the hairnet with the instruction to bring it to the wedding.  That it will help free her.  Then when she's married to Tyrion and truly desperate, Dontos approaches her again and  tells her that Olenna is going to put something in her hairnet on the day of the wedding.   She needs to drop what she's given  int into Tyrion's food or drink and she'll be free of her marriage.  

What Olenna perhaps doesn't know is that Dontos is also passing on information for Petyr, for Sansa to find Dontos when everyone at the wedding is distracted and he'll get her out of King's Landing.

When Olenna sees Sansa at the wedding with the hair net, that's Olenna's sign that Sansa is willing to go through with Dontos' instructions.  Then and only then does Sansa get the poison through the hair net.  Olenna also adds some very subtle encouragements of her own as she replaces the stone with the poison.

Once again it's a contingency plan to make sure Sansa is available for marriage after Margaery's marriage to Joffrey takes place.  Olenna would suspect that the Lannisters aren't going to maintain their hold of Sansa after her engagement to Joffrey is broken by marrying her to another Lannister, most probably Tyrion.  Pety is counting on this happening.

Now whatever verbal dance Petyr and Olenna play at Highgarden is anyone's guess.  But it comes away with both agreeing that even if Sansa is married, there are ways that the marriage can be ended.  Once Dontos becomes the go between, whether that be from Olenna to Sansa or Petyr to Sansa or both, Pety is always going to be kept informed about how Olenna is going to free up Sansa, if in fact they didn't spell it out to each other from the beginning.  Which they might have if it only concerned Tyrion's death, but I'm fairly certain woudld not have if it concerned Joffrey's death.

And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's.  That's complete hogwash.  Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas.  Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK.  And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater.

This whole thing about Olenna trying to stop Tywin from taking the North, is your complete fan fiction.  There's nothing to suggest this, other than Olenna wants Winterfell for her House.  That's all there is to it.  This is a power grab by House Tyrell, this has nothing to do with some noble scheme to save the realm from the Lannisters.  

Sansa has always been a valuable prize.  Especially after Bran and Rickon are supposedly killed.  Because that left her after Robb.  And since Robb was in active war against the Iron Throne, it's pretty clear that if or when Robb lost Robb wasn't going to be alive to take Winterfell.  That means Sansa has always been the key to Winterfell even before the Red Wedding. 

She's an extremely valuable prize, and that's not even taking into her account her Stark bloodline which I'm sure Olenna would also covet for her House.  Her House still having a bit of an inferiority complex despite their status as the Head of the Reach.

But yes, Sansa's marriage does force Olenna's hand into poisoning Tyrion, but that doesn't mean Olenna is going to personally drop the poison.  It's too risky and Olenna would have no reason to believe that she would have the opportunity to do it without being caught.  

Manipulating Sansa to do it, though is a different story.  Let Sansa take the risk, and have the poisoner be the one person that would be in the best position to poison Tyrion.

Which has always been the weakest part of your theory that Olenna directly poisoned Tyrion.  GRRM gave us no information that Olenna was in a position to drop the poison in Tyrion's pie.  

We know Olenna and Margaerys walked over when Joffrey was humiliating Tyrion with the wine, but we dont' have any reason to believe that she was still there after the pie came out, or that she had ever gotten close enough to have access to Tyrion's food.  In reality, there is only one person that we know for 100% certainty was in a position to either poison Tyrion's pie, or poison Joffrey's goblet before he took his fatal swallow, and that's Sansa.

Ummm, what?  I'm sorry this makes no sense.  Killing Tyrion doesnt' stalemate House Lannister.  There's a ton of Lannisters out there they could have remarried Sansa to.  None of this diminishes Tywin's power in the slightest.  Tywin is the undisputed head of House Lannister, including uncles, cousins, ect.  Whatever Lannister they would have married Sansa to after Tyrion's death would have still delivered Winterfell into the House Lannister's treasure chest.

And I'm still not sure why you think that Sansa couldn't be married to Willas after Tyrion's death.  You've never explained that.

  For all I know Olenna, has a stockpile of poison, but why bring more than one crystal to the wedding?  She's only planning on one person being poisoned, so having more than one poison crystal does is create a chance of being caught with poison that causes symptoms of choking at a wedding where someone chokes to death.  And her reason for passing it to Sansa is simple, as stated numerous times.  Sansa has the motive to poison Tyrion, and Sansa has the opportunity to poison Tyrion, since she's the only one sitting next to Tyrion other than Garlan Tyrell.

And Garlan doesnt' seem like the type that would agree to poison Tyrion.  Olenna doesn't have the opportunity to do it, at least no unobserved.  Remeber she's not much taller than Tyrion, and not terribly mobile.  How you expect her to find a way to Tyrion's side to poison him without anyone observing this is anyone guess.  Plus, why would she take the chance of doing it herself and getting caught.

Like Petyr said, "clean hands".  Always get someone else to do your dirty work for you.  That's what Olenna wants from Sansa.

Sorry, but no. You are the one who's twisting here. She adds, "when the men are off making war", which is most certainly not happening the day after next. This is how you can always spot a liar, when they say one thing and then immediately contradict it. It's just like she plays the poor helpless grandma unable to stop Mace from having his wedding, and then in the next breath she is not going to give him a choice but to ask for Sansa to come to Highgarden -- and she is not even going to tell him the reason for this visit, which is nothing less than to marry his son and heir to a woman of her choice, not his.

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Because the hairnet is a only contingency plan, in case the Lannisters marry her to Tyrion.  If Sansa is never married there is no need for a poisoning and Sansa just gets to have a nice hairnet with rare amethysts from Asshai.  But no poison. 

snip

In what possible, conceivable scenario could Lady Olenna expect Sansa to be married to Tyrion at this point in time? The hairnet was delivered the day after the battle, when Tyrion is presumed dead by everyone. Before that, he may be acting Hand but he is also a dwarf and is not considered to be a suitable match for Lollys Stokeworth, let alone Sansa Stark, who, by the way, is not even heir to Winterfell by then. It was only when Robb died and Sansa married Tyrion that he became the target. It's the only explanation that makes any sense at all. Lady Olenna is playing the game of thrones, and Tywin getting the north is the single-most devastating move against Highgarden since the Dawn Age.

And sorry, but the whole idea of trusting Sansa to do this is a non-starter, especially, as you say, she didn't decide to actually do this until she saw, or didn't see, Ice. She is far too unstable, and this is a job that requires courage, mental fortitude and most of all, discretion. It's not a game for children.

So I'm taking a hard pass on all of this. We will find that Olenna did the pie because Tyrion was the immediate threat, for the exact reasons I've stated. This is how the game is played.

[Springwatch]

36 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

There are literally a thousand pairs of eyes in the room, 99 percent of which are facing the head table, plus servants, guards and who knows how many little birds in the rafters. It's not a matter of seeing the crystal. The odds of no one see this rapid and sudden movement to the rim of the chalice are infinitesimally small, so this is about as extreme a risk as humanly possible. And whoever gets stuck with this task at the very last minute, because it could not be Olenna, would have to screw up their courage to commit regicide with little to no preparation, knowing that if they are spotted by just one person looking their way they are in for a kind of death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can imagine.

Butterbumps could do it. Sleight-of-hand is his thing.

Otherwise I agree the crystal is very soluble in wine, otherwise Cresen would have screwed up, and he's supposed to be an expert.

[John Suburbs]

1 minute ago, Springwatch said:

Butterbumps could do it. Sleight-of-hand is his thing.

Otherwise I agree the crystal is very soluble in wine, otherwise Cresen would have screwed up, and he's supposed to be an expert.

Funny, you're the second person who's suggested this. He used his exceptional juggling skills to lob it from the floor below and into the chalice without making a clink or a plop, with no possibility at all of missing. There is also the one where Petyr had a trained bird in the pie who swooped down low and snatched it off of Sansa's head to drop it in.

May favorite, though, is Mel killed him through the flames all the way from Dragonstone. Can't be disproven, so it must be true.