A deep dive into the Purple Wedding (could Sansa have been the poisoner?)

[Springwatch]

12 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Funny, you're the second person who's suggested this. He used his exceptional juggling skills to lob it from the floor below and into the chalice without making a clink or a plop, with no possibility at all of missing.

Because from what we've seen, Butterbumps is seriously good:

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Butterbumps arrived before the food, dressed in a jester’s suit of green and yellow feathers with a floppy coxcomb. An immense round fat man, as big as three Moon Boys, he came cartwheeling into the hall, vaulted onto the table, and laid a gigantic egg right in front of Sansa. “Break it, my lady,” he commanded. When she did, a dozen yellow chicks escaped and began running in all directions. “Catch them!” Butterbumps exclaimed. Little Lady Bulwer snagged one and handed it to him, whereby he tilted back his head, popped it into his huge rubbery mouth, and seemed to swallow it whole. When he belched, tiny yellow feathers flew out his nose. Lady Bulwer began to wail in distress, but her tears turned into a sudden squeal of delight when the chick came squirming out of the sleeve of her gown and ran down her arm.

As the servants brought out a broth of leeks and mushrooms, Butterbumps began to juggle [....]

ETA

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Lady Alerie and the other women were giggling at the spectacle of Butterbumps bouncing oranges off his head, his elbows, and his ample rump. 

He's practised this stuff already.

Edited February 16 by Springwatch

[Hippocras]

Being snarky and deaf to people's thoughts until we all walk away is not the same thing as "winning" you know.

Too bad, since others who disagree wirh each other here are still managing thoughtfulness and respect. Bye JS

[Craving Peaches]

Am I the only person who is not averse to the possibility that the poison was in the pie but that Joffrey was still the target?

[the trees have eyes]

On 2/15/2024 at 5:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

Like I said, "whilst the men are having their war." Are the men going off to war the day after tomorrow? Not.

She knows perfectly well that Sansa is leaving that night. Otherwise, there is no reason for her to risk her life, and the lives of her entire family, on this.

 Look, you can certainly argue that Olenna does not mean what she says but you cannot argue with the meaning of her words.  She says she is leaving the day after tomorrow and suggests Sansa accompany her.  That is crystal clear and unambiguous in meaning.  She provides a cover story for this to allay the suspicions of listening ears, a pretext really, by presenting this as a visit by Sansa while the men are having their war.  Whether she means this or is laying a false trail for listening ears, including Sansa's, is another matter.

I am fairly certain we can agree on what the word accompany means so hopefully we can put this one to bed.

On 2/15/2024 at 5:05 PM, John Suburbs said:

This has every basis in text. This is literally the story itself. Highgarden has been the most powerful house throughout the ages, under both the Gardeners and the Tyrells. They can easily field twice if not three times the army as any other house, and they have the Redwyne navy as well. And the Reach has no geographic features that allow it to protect itself, like the other kingdoms do. Meanwhile, Tywin has extended his hold, through conquest and marriage, past the westerlands to the riverlands, crownlands, stormlands, the Iron Throne itself, and now the north -- well more than half the kingdom. This does give him the ability to outraise the Tyrell forces and neutralize their one and only means of defending themselves. These are the plain basic fact, explicitly spelled out in the text.

Tywin is unreachable at the moment. Tyrion is vulnerable. And killing Tywin does not change the basic calculus because Casterly Rock would still remain in Lannister hands, as would the north, riverlands, stormlands, crownlands the the Iron Throne. There are no other Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes because they will have lost Sansa. Without her, they don't have the north.

So my conclusion is based on the actual facts, not made up ones. Hubris has nothing to do with it.

Well, no.  ASOIAF works on a number of levels obviously: ice vs fire, Stark vs Lannister, the grand Game of Thrones being the most obvious but this is not a story about Lannisters vs Tyrells.  Mace gets to play Warwick Kingmaker in tWot5K and extracts significant rewards from the Crown: Margaery to be Queen, Mace himself on The Small Council, Loras in The Kingsguard, the huge land and power grab with the attainder of the Florents and Brightwater Keep passing to the Tyrells.  They are reaching "overmighty" status and Tywin reinstates Pycelle to prevent the Citadel naming another Tyrell to the Small Council.

The Tyrells are on the up and they may overreach - the ploy for WF makes little practical sense for either Lannisters or Tyrells given it's distant location and the Northern Lords' history of loyalty to the Starks but there it is - but they are most assuredly not in bits about Tywin annihilating their House.  There is no textual support for this and no basis to claim they fear becoming the next version of "The Rains of Castamere".  You may feel there is a plausible reason to feel the Tyrells are wary of Tywin and wish to prevent Winterfell passing to the Lannisters - and to secure it themselves (this is all fairly straightforward power politics after all) - but the fear of extermination is not at all supported by the text.  Mance is trying to save his people, Olenna?  Nah, she's protecting Margaery and/or advancing her House's interests.

Tywin is not unreachable either.  He is at the same feast his grandson was poisoned, very probably by a Tyrell, and he is later murdered in The Red Keep with a crossbow.  There's even a theory that Oberyn had managed to poison him thought I don't subscribe to that.

I feel like you made an argument here that relies on making wild inferences about character motivations that are not supported by the text rather than reached a conclusion based on actual facts.  Sorry.

On 2/15/2024 at 5:38 PM, Frey family reunion said:

And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's.  That's complete hogwash.  Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas.  Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK.  And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater.

Since AGOT, Tyrion has known that LF lied about him owning the catspaw's dagger, a lie that put Tyrion in mortal jeopardy with the catnapping and Lysa's version of justice at The Eyrie.  Since Tyrion survived and questioned him over it LF has every reason to expect that Tyrion will eventually get round to undermining him or offing him as payback so we can infer self-preservation as an additional motive for LF.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Am I the only person who is not averse to the possibility that the poison was in the pie but that Joffrey was still the target?

open to it myself, though it has its own problems: wasn’t the pie meant for everyone?

[Craving Peaches]

12 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

open to it myself, though it has its own problems: wasn’t the pie meant for everyone?

True, but doesn't that also apply to the wine?

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

True, but doesn't that also apply to the wine?

Yes. But only Marge and Joff were using the chalice. So if Marge had an antidote or had been warned not to drink after a certain moment it would be the more precise delivery vessel.

[Melifeather]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Likewise, Joffrey tipped the chalice up-end. Tyrion sees his throat working and the rivulets running down his neck. So why does the crystal sink rapidly in one situation, but not another? At the end of the scene, of course, Tyrion sees "deep purple" wine. But realize what has taken place in this time: Joffrey tried to take a second drink but barfed up the contents of his mouth into the chalice just before dropping it. So the dregs held wine, pie and poison (probably the bulk to the dissolved crystal), all of which would turn it an unnatural color.

No, I think you've misunderstood what I wrote. Joffrey takes two drinks from the chalice after it was refilled 3/4's full. In between drinks he leaves it sitting on the table in front of Tyrion.

We are told in the text that the Strangler dissolves in wine. What we do not know is how quickly it dissolves. I doubt very much the crystal was in the pie, because it wouldn't have dissolved and would be a noticeable hard "something" like when you sometimes find a tiny bone fragment in bite of ground beef (so annoying!).

Here is the text where Joffrey takes his first drink after the chalice is poured 3/4's full but the serving girl with the flagon:

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

"Ser Addam has a toast he wants to make as well," said Margaery. "Your Grace, please."

"I have no wine," Joffrey declared. "How can I drink a toast if I have no wine? Uncle Imp, you can serve me. Since you won't joust you'll be my cupbearer."

"I would be most honored."

"It's not meant to be an honor!" Joffrey screamed. "Bend down and pick up my chalice." Tyrion did as he was bid, but as he reached for the handle Joff kicked the chalice through his legs. "Pick it up! Are you as clumsy as you are ugly?" He had to crawl under the table to find the thing. "Good, now fill it with wine." He claimed a flagon from a serving girl and filled the goblet three-quarters full. "No, on your knees, dwarf." Kneeling, Tyrion raised up the heavy cup, wondering if he was about to get a second bath. But Joffrey took the wedding chalice one-handed, drank deep, and set it on the table. "You can get up now, Uncle."

His legs cramped as he tried to rise, and almost spilled him again. Tyrion had to grab hold of a chair to steady himself. Ser Garlan lent him a hand. Joffrey laughed, and Cersei as well. Then others. He could not see who, but he heard them

 

The text does say he "drank deep", but in my opinion the Strangler hasn't had enough time to dissolve.

Here's the second drink from the same serving after the crystal has had time to dissolve:

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Sansa stirred in her seat. "What sword is that?"

Tyrion's eyes still stung from the wine. He blinked and looked again. Ser Ilyn's greatsword was as long and wide as Ice, but it was too silvery-bright; Valyrian steel had a darkness to it, a smokiness in its soul. Sansa clutched his arm. "What has Ser Ilyn done with my father's sword?"

I should have sent Ice back to Robb Stark, Tyrion thought. He glanced at his father, but Lord Tywin was watching the king.

"I need to change into fresh garb, Your Grace. May I have your leave?"

"No. I like the look of you this way. Serve me my wine."

The king's chalice was on the table where he'd left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. "My lord," Margaery said, "we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us."

"My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie." Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion's pie. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie," he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. "See, it's good." Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. "Dry, though. Needs washing down." Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. "I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want . . ." His words broke up in a fit of coughing.

Margaery looked at him with concern. "Your Grace?"

 

Joffrey begins coughing probably less than 12 seconds after he took the second drink. Get a stopwatch ready and pretend you're Joffrey. Hit "start" as soon as you put the goblet on the table, read Joff's lines and pretend to eat and talk. I actually tried it and I was under 11 seconds. 

As for Cressen....yes, he got a more concentrated drink than Joffrey. Joffrey had the top part of the drink just like Melisandre, and then he got the bottom just like Cressen. Like I said, the top part of the wine wasn't infused yet with the Strangler, because it takes time to dissolve.

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You said:

And the idea that this highly lethal, extremely rare and very expensive poison would just sit at the bottom of a cup, flagon, or chalice, taking its sweet time to dissolve, is a non-starter. If that's the way it worked, then deploying it in crystal form would be the last thing anyone would do. They would crush it into a powder so the evidence of foul play is removed immediately.

 

Actually, I would think the reverse would be more beneficial to the killer. A little bit of a lapse in efficacy would be to the benefit, because it offers concealment as to the real killer.

Edited February 16 by Melifeather

[Melifeather]

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Am I the only person who is not averse to the possibility that the poison was in the pie but that Joffrey was still the target?

I believe Joffrey was the target, but I believe the Strangler was in the wine. I think the serving girl was assigned to cater to Joffrey and was also employed by Lady Olenna.

Margaery surrounds herself with many female friends and relatives. It's good for appearances to make herself seem chaste and innocent guarded by all those women, but it also creates a network of female staff that take care of all of those highborn ladies. How easy it would be to cultivate a friendship with the serving girls! 

I posit that Lady Olenna removed a Strangler crystal from Sansa's hairnet and then gave it to the serving girl who would have been instructed ahead of time to wait for a specified time like the toasts or right before the pie or even after a diversion such as what happened between Joffrey and Tyrion. The dwarf jugglers were probably deliberate - something sure to put Tyrion in Joffrey's mind. He's pretty predictable when it comes to "who" he enjoys bullying.

 

[Craving Peaches]

I'm just conflicted because on the one hand I think if it was in the wine Joffrey would have started choking sooner, and he chokes right after eating the pie, but I also think it makes more sense from a planning point of view to be in the wine rather than the pie, and the wine goes purple (not sure what else would turn the wine purple).

I would expect the crystal to dissolve rather quickly if it was soluble in wine, as alcohol is a relatively strong solvent. If it properly dissolves, there shouldn't be much or any in the way of residue at the bottom of the cup.

[Castellan]

I basically think it was poison from the necklace dropped in the chalice by Margaery at a suitable point, such as after she has had a long drink.

However the way Tyrion's piece of pie is dropped into proceedings at a key point looks like GRRM is deliberately creating a bit of confusion, or that there could be more to the plot than we know. I'm only toying with this notion. I think the idea that there is more going on than we know about is more appealing than that Olenna and Margary weren't trying to poison him.

its noteworthy that Tyrion's piece is placed down in front of him. I therefore don't see a problem with why others weren't poisoned etc. We don't see it cut out of a communal pie - the sword is only used to open the novelty pie full of birds. The actual pigeon pie comes from the kitchen. It could have poison shoved into the middle as it was brought out. And the serving man who brings it spoons lemon cream on top - the poison could be in that.

Petyr seems like the one person who would like Tyrion dead, to free Sansa for useful marriages, and because Tyrion was the one person to work out what Petyr was up to as master of coin, and must have in general have freaked him out a little as the only person almost as cunning as himself tin KL. I had thought Petyr was happy at the idea that Tyrion would become the scapegoat for Joffrey's poisoning and be executed, but poison would make sure he was dead. Petyr is someone with a network, in the chaotic wedding I am sure he could either have someone already on place as a servant or just get someone to walk in to the kitchen, take a piece of pie and sauce, and walk out. The lemon cream could be where the poison is.

Sansa in contrast has no motive and I don't think she has suppressed memories. her demeanour for a lot of the banquet - distracted, off in a world of her own - fits with her wondering when her escape opportunity will come and whether she will manage it.

The flaw in the idea of poison in the pie is that Joffrey's symptoms are those of the strangler. And the wiki article emphasies that the strangler is absorbed on contact with the wall of the throat and acts immediately, and it implies that it needs to be dissolved in wine. If placed in a pie or even the thick lemon sauce, there  is a good chance it would be ingested without really touching the throat.

So I don't know if I believe any of the above just couldn't help toying with the idea. It seems clear GRRM has orchestrated a sort of ballet with people moving about the room, with the singers and entertainers providing a ghastly accompaniment, and the dangers of Joffrey's uncontrollable behaviour building to the climax of his attack on Tyrion, and death. is this just all for the skill of writing such a dramatic scene or is he holding back some secrets for a later reveal?

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

 Look, you can certainly argue that Olenna does not mean what she says but you cannot argue with the meaning of her words.  She says she is leaving the day after tomorrow and suggests Sansa accompany her.  That is crystal clear and unambiguous in meaning.  She provides a cover story for this to allay the suspicions of listening ears, a pretext really, by presenting this as a visit by Sansa while the men are having their war.  Whether she means this or is laying a false trail for listening ears, including Sansa's, is another matter.

I am fairly certain we can agree on what the word accompany means so hopefully we can put this one to bed.

Nothing Lady Olenna says is crystal clear and unambiguous. This is the lady who says she ended her betrothal to Daeron Targaryan, not him; that her husband died because his horse just blithely walked over a cliff; that she thinks Tyrion is going to lead great hosts off to war; that she couldn't say what the stink was at Tyrin's funeral -- and that she is powerless to stop Margaery's wedding because her oaf son has made up in mind but in the next breath says she will not "give him a choice" but to ask leave for Sansa to come to Highgarden. And she isn't even going to bother telling him the real reason for this visit, which is nothing less than to marry his son and heir to a woman of her choice, not his.

So spare me all this talk about what she was planning to do the day after next. She is an even bigger liar and BSer than Littlefinger. Accompany can have two meanings: to travel with someone as a companion or escort, or to be present at the same time.

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Well, no.  ASOIAF works on a number of levels obviously: ice vs fire, Stark vs Lannister, the grand Game of Thrones being the most obvious but this is not a story about Lannisters vs Tyrells.  Mace gets to play Warwick Kingmaker in tWot5K and extracts significant rewards from the Crown: Margaery to be Queen, Mace himself on The Small Council, Loras in The Kingsguard, the huge land and power grab with the attainder of the Florents and Brightwater Keep passing to the Tyrells.  They are reaching "overmighty" status and Tywin reinstates Pycelle to prevent the Citadel naming another Tyrell to the Small Council.

This is a story about all manner of things, depending on who's perspective you're looking through. And from the Tyrell perspective, the single biggest threat to their safety and security is House Lannister. Hard stop. If it is not about Tyrell vs. Lannister, then why did they kill Joffrey? Just for fun? Why was Margaery seeking to undermine Cersei and gain control of Tommen? Why did they support Renly in the first place and not turn immediately to Tywin and Joffrey?

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Tywin is not unreachable either.  He is at the same feast his grandson was poisoned, very probably by a Tyrell, and he is later murdered in The Red Keep with a crossbow.  There's even a theory that Oberyn had managed to poison him thought I don't subscribe to that.

Like I said, it's not just that Tywin is unreachable, it's that his death at this time does not change anything. If he dies, a new lord will emerge at Casterly Rock, but the Lannisters will still control the north and all the other realms he has acquired over the past 15 years. Only Tyrion's death right now can make a meaningful dent in this bloc. Tywin can come later, after his fiefdom has been dismantled.

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I feel like you made an argument here that relies on making wild inferences about character motivations that are not supported by the text rather than reached a conclusion based on actual facts.  Sorry.

Every argument I've made is sourced directly from the text. Is the Reach not the most populous zone? Does it not field the largest army, time and time again? Does it have any natural barriers like the other zones do? Has Tywin not taken over the stormlands, crownlands, riverlands, north and the Iron Throne?

Did Joffrey start choking after he drank the wine, or the pie? Did the chalice remain right in front of Sansa's nose the entire time? Did Joffrey not tell us, crystal clearly and unambiguously, that "it's the pie, kof, noth, pie"?

The facts are all on my side. There is nothing that supports any other explanation.

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Since AGOT, Tyrion has known that LF lied about him owning the catspaw's dagger, a lie that put Tyrion in mortal jeopardy with the catnapping and Lysa's version of justice at The Eyrie.  Since Tyrion survived and questioned him over it LF has every reason to expect that Tyrion will eventually get round to undermining him or offing him as payback so we can infer self-preservation as an additional motive for LF.

Really? You think that the dagger lie is what motivates Petyr to kill Joffrey now, more than a year later, when everyone and anyone who would care about that is dead? How about the fact that Tyrion is now Master of Coin and is on the verge of unravelling Petyr's massive embezzlement of the crown's gold? Do you think the very real possibility of losing his head would be a stronger motivation?

But even this pales in comparison to what Olenna is worried about. With Tywin capable of defeating the Reach army, her family, the entire Reach and her very house are in grave danger. Tywin is no ordinary lord who does battle with his foes, accepts their surrender, and then raises them up again minus some lands and a few titles. He is a ruthless warlord who wages total war to utterly exterminate houses who defy him -- even after he professes to be loyal to them. Look at what he did to the Riverlands: complete destruction; every town, village, holdfast and castle, burned; smallfolk murdered by the tens of thousands and left rotting in the mud; fields destroyed, gold, food and anything else of value plundered. The realm has not seen this kind of devastation since the Dance of the Dragons, and that includes four Blackfyre rebellions. And just look at the number of houses that he has dispossessed of their ancient seats, if not exterminated altogether: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darry . . .  

This is what Lady Olenna fears: the Reach burned to ashes, Highgarden destroyed, her family murdered, even the little babies. Her line extinguished, for all time. This is a far greater motivation to kill Tyrion than Petyr's, who can always split to Braavos and disappear if the worst happens. Lady O will be helpless, unless she takes action now.

These are the facts, my friend. Sorry.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Melifeather said:

No, I think you've misunderstood what I wrote. Joffrey takes two drinks from the chalice after it was refilled 3/4's full. In between drinks he leaves it sitting on the table in front of Tyrion.

Yes, Tyrion fills the chalice, Joffrey drinks deep, and then leaves it on the table, right in front of Sansa, when the big pie is wheeled in. The whole cutting ceremony takes several minutes -- probably a good five just to wheel it through the hall. So we know for a fact that there was no poison in the wine at that point.

After the cutting, Joffrey is back at Tyrion and demands more wine. The chalice sat on the table, right in front of Sansa, the whole time. Tyrion has to climb into his chair to reach it, so it is at least an arm's length toward the center. Joffrey grabs it "and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin."

A lot of people go "aha, purple wine" at this mention, but that is nonsense. Red wine translucent against Joffrey's pale skin illuminated by orange torchlight reflecting off a golden chalice . . . you bet that looks purple. Numerous characters are described as having purple wine stains on their clothing and in their beards.

Again, if the wine is poisoned to the point it has turned deep purple, and Joff is drinking massive gulps of it, then he would have dropped as soon as Cressen, or sooner if you believe relative concentration has anything to do with timing. But he doesn't. He shows no signs of any distress, not even the slightest peep -- until he eats the pie.

Then, within seconds, he gives out the first tiny kof. Then he eats more pie and kofs again, harder. Why? Because the pie is dry, and he wants wine, which feels perfectly normal, to soothe it. And here's the kicker: when he tries to take another drink, this is the moment when the pie is finally washed into his throat. And what happens? In a matter of seconds, Joffrey tries to speak but cannot -- exactly like Cressen.

So, sorry, but the facts are undeniable. With the wine, we have a wildly different timeline where the poison is acting completely opposite of what it should be doing given the comparative concentrations and dosages, but with the wine it works exactly the same, right down to the second. 

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We are told in the text that the Strangler dissolves in wine. What we do not know is how quickly it dissolves. I doubt very much the crystal was in the pie, because it wouldn't have dissolved and would be a noticeable hard "something" like when you sometimes find a tiny bone fragment in bite of ground beef (so annoying!).

We are told in Cressen's POV that "dissolved in wine" it would tighten the muscles in the throat. Nowhere does he say it can only be dissolved in wine, and we can see for ourselves that it can. Remember when Sansa checks the hairnet in the goodswood. She sees a purple smudge in the empty socket. This can only be the poison because real amethysts don't leave smudges behind. So unless you can come up with a plausible explanation as to how and why someone would splash wine on Sansa's head in the brief walk from the Hand's Tower to the throneroom entrance, then the only explanation is that it started to dissolve just from the oils in her hair and the sweat from her scalp.

Wine is mostly water anyway, and there is plenty of water in hot, moist pie filling. So there is no reason to conclude that it would not dissolve in pie. But even if it did not and Tyrion bit into something hard and then choked, all the better to get people to believe that he choked on a bone, right?

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Joffrey begins coughing probably less than 12 seconds after he took the second drink. Get a stopwatch ready and pretend you're Joffrey. Hit "start" as soon as you put the goblet on the table, read Joff's lines and pretend to eat and talk. I actually tried it and I was under 11 seconds. 

As for Cressen....yes, he got a more concentrated drink than Joffrey. Joffrey had the top part of the drink just like Melisandre, and then he got the bottom just like Cressen. Like I said, the top part of the wine wasn't infused yet with the Strangler, because it takes time to dissolve.

Here is Cressen's drink after dropping the crystal in only seconds before:

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The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. "He does have power here, my lord," the woman said, "and fire cleanses." At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.

Cressen tried to reply, but the words caught in his throat.

So right off the bat, we can see that Mel's sentence alone is about a third shorter than Margaery's. that means it you are going to cram Joffrey's entire sequence into 12 measly seconds, then Cressen's took place in less than three. That's four times shorter, all with a half swallow of wine that, sorry, cannot possible have contained all the poison while Mel got none. That would be absurd. Who would use such a thing that only kills if the victim drains their cup entirely? It would never have gotten the reputation it has, or the price it commands, if it does everything possible to avoid being consumed once it is deployed. So no, arguing that it does not dissolve near-instantly and settles into the bottom of a cup like sludge is merely making up facts to support a conclusion. The right way to do it is to look at all the actual facts objectively, and when he do this we can reach only one possible conclusion: the poison was in the pie.

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Actually, I would think the reverse would be more beneficial to the killer. A little bit of a lapse in efficacy would be to the benefit, because it offers concealment as to the real killer.

Not in this case. Any delay only ups the risk for Margaery. And only because they foolishly gave them a giant chalice to share and decided to use that to deliver the poison. And why would they want any concealment of the "real killer" when they are trying so desperately to pin it on Tyrion? Why wouldn't they want it to go directly from his hands to the king as quickly as possible.

And the key question that no one can answer: why on earth would Lady Olenna trust Littlefinger in any of this when he was the one who deliberately lied to get Margaery into this fix in the first place? And then he never even confessed this lie; they learned it from Sansa.

[the trees have eyes]

54 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Nothing Lady Olenna says is crystal clear and unambiguous. This is the lady who says she ended her betrothal to Daeron Targaryan, not him; that her husband died because his horse just blithely walked over a cliff; that she thinks Tyrion is going to lead great hosts off to war; that she couldn't say what the stink was at Tyrin's funeral -- and that she is powerless to stop Margaery's wedding because her oaf son has made up in mind but in the next breath says she will not "give him a choice" but to ask leave for Sansa to come to Highgarden. And she isn't even going to bother telling him the real reason for this visit, which is nothing less than to marry his son and heir to a woman of her choice, not his.

So spare me all this talk about what she was planning to do the day after next. She is an even bigger liar and BSer than Littlefinger.

There's only so many ways I can say this.  Whether she means it or not she invites Sansa to accompany her.  You are arguing motivation and intent, I am simply pointing out that the meaning of what she says is that Sansa leave with her, a point you seemed determined to refute.

Accompany means what it means whether you believe what she says or not.

Can we end #accompanygate now?

Also, it might help if you addressed the points made by the person you are replying to rather than blurring posters together.  That might spare me all this talk which isn't relevant to what I said.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

This is a story about all manner of things, depending on who's perspective you're looking through. And from the Tyrell perspective, the single biggest threat to their safety and security is House Lannister. Hard stop. If it is not about Tyrell vs. Lannister, then why did they kill Joffrey? Just for fun? Why was Margaery seeking to undermine Cersei and gain control of Tommen? Why did they support Renly in the first place and not turn immediately to Tywin and Joffrey?

You argued that Olenna's motivation was the fear that Tywin would exterminate House Tyrell, a picture you painted in apocalyptic terms.  This isn't borne out by the text.  Sorry.  I'm not interested in arguing with you over your wilder inferences as you have proved you will go on for ever, merely in pointing out that they are not textually accurate.  If you can't accept that, then there's nothing more to say.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Like I said, it's not just that Tywin is unreachable, it's that his death at this time does not change anything. If he dies, a new lord will emerge at Casterly Rock, but the Lannisters will still control the north and all the other realms he has acquired over the past 15 years. Only Tyrion's death right now can make a meaningful dent in this bloc. Tywin can come later, after his fiefdom has been dismantled.

You said Tywin was unreachable.  I said he was anything but as he was at the same feast as Joffrey.  Like with #accompanygate and "The Rains of Highgarden" you are playing fast and loose with the text.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Every argument I've made is sourced directly from the text. Is the Reach not the most populous zone? Does it not field the largest army, time and time again? Does it have any natural barriers like the other zones do?

I think you'll find there are three examples above which refute your first point.  Which are what I am talking about specifically.  As to your rhetorical questions, what do they have to do with anything I have said?  

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

The facts are all on my side. There is nothing that supports any other explanation.

Said with customary closed-mindedness.  There are plenty of other ideas, stated over the years and in this thread.  If you don't agree with them that's fine but you don't have any particular insight that others lack here, just your own take on things.  Please realise that.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Really? You think that the dagger lie is what motivates Petyr to kill Joffrey now, more than a year later, when everyone and anyone who would care about that is dead? How about the fact that Tyrion is now Master of Coin and is on the verge of unravelling Petyr's massive embezzlement of the crown's gold? Do you think the very real possibility of losing his head would be a stronger motivation?

I quite clearly said it was an additional motivation.  Additional to the ones that others had mentioned.  If you read what people actually posted instead of wondering how to use it as ammunition in an adversarial sense we could avoid a lot of this pointless clutter.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

This is what Lady Olenna fears: the Reach burned to ashes, Highgarden destroyed, her family murdered, even the little babies. Her line extinguished, for all time. This is a far greater motivation to kill Tyrion than Petyr's, who can always split to Braavos and disappear if the worst happens. Lady O will be helpless, unless she takes action now.

These are the facts, my friend. Sorry.

This is a wild inference that you now choose to claim as fact.  How silly.

[Castellan]

On 2/16/2024 at 4:24 AM, Hippocras said:

The shared chalice is what helps make certain noone suspects the Tyrells IMO. This is why I am sure that Marge must have been given an antidote (even if she didn't know it).

I think Melisandre's ability to drink a whole cup of poisoned wine without being affected was meant in part as a clue that there is indeed an antidote. I don't think Mel is immune to poison. I think she simply has visions and knew what Cressen was planning because she foresaw it. So she came prepared with the antidote and used the scene to increase her power with Stannis and his people.

Olenna knew she would poison the wine. She used the shared chalice as a way to make it seem like Margaery was almost a victim herself, which ensured that noone would remotely suspect the poisoning had anything to do with Margaery.

Dropping a tiny crystal in a cup while everyone is distracted by pigeons and shows is hardly the huge risk you make it out to be. The crystal was too small to be seen, and very few people were close.

 

And you seem to be willfully ignoring my other posts as I have already addressed your other points here. Repeat: the precise circumstances DID NOT MATTER. That was just what happened. If something different had happened at the wedding, the plan could accommodate it.

I agree that Olenna and Margaery poisoned the wine. I personally think it was a shared enterprise and that Olenna could have passed the crystal to Margaery as she is in the best position to get it into the chalice unseen and to choose her moment.

In the quote supplied upthread, GRRM says this is what the careful reader will think and then adds he has two more books to write and there may be some surprises. I think there is so much evidence for it that if that turns out not to be true it would be a really cheap HA! I TRICKED YOU! reveal. I can picture something like Petyr has made them THINK they poisoned him while really arranging a more certain dispatch, or, more likely, that we just don't know yet everything that was going on.

Thematically part of what makes his clues that Margaery and Olenna did it is just the old 'poison is a woman's weapon'. And in this case with a woman's motive. From the point of view of their house, its a great alliance. From Margaery and Olenna's view, it is an unacceptable one. Olenna is not going to let her granddaughter marry and sadistic and erratic husband. And the solution is obvious - Joffrey has a brother.

Instead of trying to measure the seconds required to do this and that, I take account of the characters as they've been shown so far, and their behaviour. Margaery and Olenna's reactions to the choking seem well rehearsed. Margaery gasps out her line "He's choking!" ("not poisoned, but choking" and Olenna then takes charge

Her grandmother moved to her side. "Help the poor boy!" the Queen of Thorns screeched, in a voice ten times her size. "Dolts! Will you all stand about gaping? Help your king!"and in a stenatorian voice tells all to Help your king! (aren't I helpful trying to save Joffrey?)

and then after a few paragraphs of description of Joffrey's ghastly end

Margaery Tyrell was weeping in her grandmother's arms as the old lady said, "Be brave, be brave." (Keep yourself together and stick to the plan! Be strong like me!)

But later, they are a bit let down a bit by their family who are not in the know.

When Joffrey has been pried from his mothers arms and drops lifeless to the floor:

The High Septon knelt beside him. "Father Above, judge our good King Joffrey justly," he intoned, beginning the prayer for the dead. Margaery Tyrell began to sob, and Tyrion heard her mother Lady Alerie saying, "He choked, sweetling. He choked on the pie. It was naught to do with you. He choked. We all saw."

That's a very strange way to comfort someone! No-one has suggested its Margaery's fault. Its almost enough to make me think Alerie is in on the plot. But I think that Alerie knows her daughter very well and recognises her sobbing from childhood as caused by a sense of guilt and fear of being in trouble. She starts this sobbing when the High Septon starts to pray for Joffrey to be justly judged. The idea of judgement may be what brings on her sobbing.

Also, the Tyrells seem to make too much of Margaery having drunk from the chalice. Its self evident but Mace can't shut up about it. I think the women folk have got it into his head and now it can't be got out!

Edited February 18 by Castellan

[Melifeather]

21 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So we know for a fact that there was no poison in the wine at that point.

We do not know that for a fact. His first drink happened immediately. We do not know how quickly the crystals dissolve.

21 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

A lot of people go "aha, purple wine" at this mention, but that is nonsense. Red wine translucent against Joffrey's pale skin illuminated by orange torchlight reflecting off a golden chalice . . . you bet that looks purple. Numerous characters are described as having purple wine stains on their clothing and in their beards.

The deep color was enough to catch Tyrion‘s attention. He considers it and then dumps the dregs out onto the floor. It seems implied that Tyrion was suspicious of the contents.

21 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Again, if the wine is poisoned to the point it has turned deep purple, and Joff is drinking massive gulps of it, then he would have dropped as soon as Cressen, or sooner if you believe relative concentration has anything to do with timing. But he doesn't. He shows no signs of any distress, not even the slightest peep -- until he eats the pie.

I think my estimate of 10-12 seconds from drinking the wine to choking is plausible and certainly does not rule out the wine. We are told ahead of time that the crystals dissolve in wine. Maybe alcohol is necessary?

21 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

We are told in Cressen's POV that "dissolved in wine" it would tighten the muscles in the throat. Nowhere does he say it can only be dissolved in wine, and we can see for ourselves that it can. Remember when Sansa checks the hairnet in the goodswood. She sees a purple smudge in the empty socket. This can only be the poison because real amethysts don't leave smudges behind. So unless you can come up with a plausible explanation as to how and why someone would splash wine on Sansa's head in the brief walk from the Hand's Tower to the throneroom entrance, then the only explanation is that it started to dissolve just from the oils in her hair and the sweat from her scalp.

I understood the smudge as being a tiny blurred or indistinct shape because the hard crystal shape was gone but the setting was still there. Not anything residual.

i still stand by my assertion that Melisandre is not immune to poison, but she is educated about its properties, efficacy, and dosing. Cressen’s poisoning is a precedent for Joffrey’s as to how it would work. Melisandre was able to drink the top 2/3 unaffected so Joffrey’s top 2/3 didn’t affect him either.

Littlefinger and Lady Olenna understand how the game is played. He made sure the truth was spread via the servants.

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

There's only so many ways I can say this.  Whether she means it or not she invites Sansa to accompany her.  You are arguing motivation and intent, I am simply pointing out that the meaning of what she says is that Sansa leave with her, a point you seemed determined to refute.

Accompany means what it means whether you believe what she says or not.

Can we end #accompanygate now?

Also, it might help if you addressed the points made by the person you are replying to rather than blurring posters together.  That might spare me all this talk which isn't relevant to what I said.

Your meaning is incorrect. As I showed you, accompany does not necessarily mean "travel with"; it can also mean "be present at." The reason you have to keep saying it in so many different ways is because what you are saying is flat wrong. So sure, we can end accompanygate on those terms.

You're the one who brought up the whole accompany thing after I had already squared it with the other poster.

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You argued that Olenna's motivation was the fear that Tywin would exterminate House Tyrell, a picture you painted in apocalyptic terms.  This isn't borne out by the text.  Sorry.  I'm not interested in arguing with you over your wilder inferences as you have proved you will go on for ever, merely in pointing out that they are not textually accurate.  If you can't accept that, then there's nothing more to say.

This is 100 percent borne out by the text. It is the actual, verifiable and confirmed situation in the realm. I think you are confusing "borne out by the text" with "outright stated." But there are all kinds of truths in asioaf that are not stated, starting with RLJ. If you can't accept that, then there is nothing more to say.

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You said Tywin was unreachable.  I said he was anything but as he was at the same feast as Joffrey.  Like with #accompanygate and "The Rains of Highgarden" you are playing fast and loose with the text.

He is unreachable. He is at the center of the head table, right next to Cersei and the Tyrells and the king and the queen, where all eyes will be focused all night long. It would be very odd for Lady Olenna to be camped out there, in plain view of everyone, rather than way down the side, out of sight from nearly the entire room.

But as I went on to explain, which you continue to ignore, is that the fact remains that killing Tywin does not solve anything right now. The point here is to keep House Lannister from getting the north. Only Tyrion's death and Sansa's extraction can do that.

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I think you'll find there are three examples above which refute your first point.  Which are what I am talking about specifically.  As to your rhetorical questions, what do they have to do with anything I have said?  

Lol, you haven't refuted anything. The Reach is the most powerful house, militarily and economically. It has been this way for thousands of years. They do have the largest army. They do not have any natural barriers to speak of. Tywin's command of practically the rest of the kingdom does pose a grave threat, because the Reach has no other way of defending itself. This is not rhetoric. These are facts, unambiguous, clearly stated facts right from the text. The only thing this discussion proves is that some people are better at drawing conclusions from actual facts than others.

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Said with customary closed-mindedness.  There are plenty of other ideas, stated over the years and in this thread.  If you don't agree with them that's fine but you don't have any particular insight that others lack here, just your own take on things.  Please realise that.

Sure, everyone can pitch their own ideas, but not their own facts. And the vast majority of facts used to support the wine are completely imaginary. So it is not just my take, it is the only conclusion drawn from actual, verifiable facts in the text, not just words. Realize that.

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I quite clearly said it was an additional motivation.  Additional to the ones that others had mentioned.  If you read what people actually posted instead of wondering how to use it as ammunition in an adversarial sense we could avoid a lot of this pointless clutter.

We don't need an "additional motivation" for Petyr's self-preservation. The embezzlement alone is enough. Nobody is going to give a rat's ass if Tyrion, without proof, claims that Petyr lied about the dagger, especially when he was not even present to hear what was actually said. And since multiple people can attest to the fact that Robert won the dagger, not Tyrion, then this whole story is laughable.

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This is a wild inference that you now choose to claim as fact.  How silly.

This is the conclusion drawn from the actual facts. We could avoid this pointless clutter if you could accept the facts as they are, not how you wished they were.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

We do not know that for a fact. His first drink happened immediately. We do not know how quickly the crystals dissolve.

Of course we do. He drank long and deep, tipping the chalice up end. So even if for some inexplicable reason the crystal does sink right to the bottom and sits there, it would be the first thing down his throat when he drank. If he took a tiny sip and then put it down you might have a point, but he didn't. Sorry, but this is what I mean about imaginary facts. The very idea that a crystal that does not dissolve near-instantly is ludicrous. Nobody would place any value on it at all if it worked this way, and certainly the preferred method of deployment would not be in crystal form, but as a powder.

Plus we have this added problem: did the poison enter the chalice before Tyrion filled it, or after? How could anyone have possibly done this in the brief moment it took Tyrion to hand it to Joffrey, with literally every eye in the room directly on them. The only way this could be remotely possible is if someone did it while it was under the table -- again, without anyone noticing. But even then, Tyrion pours in the new wine, stirring the whole thing up. And this after it had been sitting in whatever residual wine was left over when Joffrey dumped it on Tyrion. And still you imagine that the crystal is not dissolving and filling the entire contents with poison?

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The deep color was enough to catch Tyrion‘s attention. He considers it and then dumps the dregs out onto the floor. It seems implied that Tyrion was suspicious of the contents.

Yes, the deep color at the end of the scene, after Joffrey had barfed it all into the chalice. Before that it was just purple -- thin sheets of red wine running down his chin will look purple. Again, that is just the plain fact.

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I think my estimate of 10-12 seconds from drinking the wine to choking is plausible and certainly does not rule out the wine. We are told ahead of time that the crystals dissolve in wine. Maybe alcohol is necessary?

No, it is not plausible. They would be on super fast-forward for all of this to happen in 12 seconds. But regardless, there is no denying that Joffrey's sequence from drinking his wine to losing his ability to speak is multiple times longer than Cressen's, despite supposedly taking multiple huge gulps of more heavily poisoned wine. It is undeniable that if the two scenes played out side by side, Cressen would have been on his knees by the time Margy was half-done with her line about Lord Buckler's toast. And this doesn't even get us close to the first tiny kof, let alone the point where Joffrey tried to speak but "his words broke up in a fit of coughing" -- which is the same as "the words caught in his throat." And this happens in virtually the exact time frame after Joffrey finally passes the pie into his throat. Just a coincidence?

And this whole argument is moot because even if, despite the clearcut evidence that neither wine nor alcohol is necessary, we still hold to this theory, just look at the text. The first series of huge chugs showed no reaction at all, but the pie showed an immediate one, and then the actual choking was precipitated with another drink of wine. So there is your wine, right there in Joffrey's throat -- but only when combined with the pie do we see a more pronounced reaction from just the pie alone.

And, of course, throughout this whole time, we see Joffrey with just wine in his throat and he has no problem, then just pie in his mouth and he immediately start's koffing, and states clearly and unambiguously that this is caused by the pie, then he has both wine and pie in his throat, and only then does he start choking, and he even tells us again, point blank: it's the pie, kof, the pie.

Honestly, how much more hard evidence do you need? This is like of Sherlock Holmes walked into the parlor to find the lord of the manner with a knife in his belly, and with his dying breath has says it was the maid, the maid, but still insisting that the murderer had to be the butler.

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I understood the smudge as being a tiny blurred or indistinct shape because the hard crystal shape was gone but the setting was still there. Not anything residual.

Of course the setting is still there. The poison was in the crystal, not the hairnet. There is nothing about it being tiny or blurred or indistinct -- just a dark smudge. Nothing else but the crystallized strangler can do this, and this disproves the fallacy that wine or alcohol is necessary to dissolve it. 

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i still stand by my assertion that Melisandre is not immune to poison, but she is educated about its properties, efficacy, and dosing. Cressen’s poisoning is a precedent for Joffrey’s as to how it would work. Melisandre was able to drink the top 2/3 unaffected so Joffrey’s top 2/3 didn’t affect him either.

Sorry, but this is just another example of making up facts to fit a conclusion. The very rationale of using a slow-dissolving crystal to assassinate high-value targets disproves this. So stand by your assertion, but it's still wrong.

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Littlefinger and Lady Olenna understand how the game is played. He made sure the truth was spread via the servants.

Yes, Littlefinger's men told the truth, but Littlefinger himself lied, directly to their faces, putting Margaery in this mortal danger. And then he never even confessed this lie, they learned it from Sansa. So would you trust the liar who did this to you and yours when he later comes to you and says, "gee I'm sorry, let me make it right because I feel so bad for what I've done . . ."

And then it turns out that his "plan" is to first provide a single giant chalice for both Joffrey and Margaery to share, then somehow drop a crystal into this thing that is four or five times taller than a normal glass, and all glittering and golden to draw attention to itself, like a giant fishing lure, and then somehow wait for the perfect moment where they can not only make this swift move up to the rim directly in front of a thousand witnesses but also somehow arrange it so that both the victim and the patsy create the circumstances that permit both the murder and the frame-up -- all the time knowing that if just one person sees this they are in for a death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can conceive.

Oh, and where is the known liar and double-crosser while Olenna and her family are surrounded by Lannister guards and taking this enormous risk? Why, he's safe and sound on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize -- or split to Braavos at the first sign of trouble. Honestly, how is it possible for anyone to read the Lady Olenna that's on the page and conclude that she is this much of a gullible simp? I guess it's easy when you can just ignore the actual facts and make up your own.

[Melifeather]

15 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course we do. He drank long and deep, tipping the chalice up end.

That was the description of the second drink.

16 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but this is what I mean about imaginary facts. The very idea that a crystal that does not dissolve near-instantly is ludicrous. Nobody would place any value on it at all if it worked this way, and certainly the preferred method of deployment would not be in crystal form, but as a powder.

Your points are strictly argumentative based on your opinion on whether or not you like someone's interpretation of the text. You just happen to prefer your interpretation, but you have failed to convince anyone participating in this discussion because you are so off-putting. Let the facts stand for themselves free of condescension and whimsical dismissals.

22 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Plus we have this added problem: did the poison enter the chalice before Tyrion filled it, or after? How could anyone have possibly done this in the brief moment it took Tyrion to hand it to Joffrey, with literally every eye in the room directly on them.

Have you forgotten that Tyrion took a flagon of wine from a serving girl? It is quite common for Kings and Lords to assign cupbearers to make sure their cup never goes empty. The serving girl was probably following Joffrey's chalice around to make sure it was filled as soon as it was empty. This is how I propose that the poison was dispensed - by the serving girl.

24 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the deep color at the end of the scene, after Joffrey had barfed it all into the chalice.

This is new to me. When did Joffrey barf into his chalice? You are conveniently ignoring the timing for when each stage of this event occurs.

First - Joffrey declares he has no wine. Commands Tyrion to serve him.

Second - Tyrion takes a flagon of wine from a serving girl and fills the chalice 3/4 full.

Third - Joffrey drank deep.

Fourth - the chalice remains on the table in front of Tyrion and Sansa. Sansa notices Ser Illyn's sword and asks what happened to Ice.

Fifth - Joffrey demands Tyrion bring him his wine. Joff grabs it from him and this is where he basically chugs it, upending the chalice, and spilling wine down his face.

Sixth - Joffrey pushes his hand into Tyrion's serving of pie and tries to eat it.

Seventh - Joffrey's coughing fit causes him to drop his chalice.

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course the setting is still there. The poison was in the crystal, not the hairnet. There is nothing about it being tiny or blurred or indistinct -- just a dark smudge. Nothing else but the crystallized strangler can do this, and this disproves the fallacy that wine or alcohol is necessary to dissolve it. 

If the smudge is residual as you insist, then why doesn't Sansa get any on her finger? She can't stop herself from feeling the empty setting. In my opinion (notice how I don't insist that my interpretations are proof) the descriptive word "smudge" is how the empty socket looked in the moonlight. The crystals reflected moonlight while the empty socket looked like a smudge on the hairnet.

 

I will have to leave off for now. I have to work until 9pm this afternoon.  

 

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

Do we know for sure that Cressen and Joffrey even got the same dose of the poison anyway? Cressen may have put in more poison to kill Melisandre based on her (presumably greater, since she's an adult woman and Joffrey is a young teenage boy) body weight. We also don't know that they were drinking the same kind of wine - the crystal might dissolve at different speeds in different wines based on alcohol content etc. 

Cressen's crystals:

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Collapsing into his chair, he pulled the stopper and spilled out the vial's contents. A dozen crystals, no larger than seeds, rattled across the parchment he'd been reading. They shone like jewels in the candlelight, so purple that the maester found himself thinking that he had never truly seen the color before.

Sansa's hairnet:

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Small gems were set wherever two strands crossed...

The hairnet crystals seem to be larger than Cressen's crystal (they are certainly larger than seeds in all the pictures of them I've seen), so theoretically they should take longer to dissolve? Not to mention, Joffrey's wine cup was probably larger than Cressen's which would make the poison more diluted.

Edited February 18 by Craving Peaches