Ukraine War: incompetence vs fecklessness

[Werthead]

Increasing alarm on Russian Telegram and even some media channels about the success of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. A number of facilities in and around the Samara region have been hit hard overnight, and Russian sources are saying they are hitting the distillation units. Everything else can be replaced pretty quickly, but if destroyed, these units can take months to replace (and are too expensive to have tons of spares sitting around). The success of the Ukrainian drone attacks is starting to seriously dent the production and output that the Russian economy relies on.

Apparently there is also a current blame-shifting game going on with the oil oligarchs saying it is the responsibility of state defence to defend them, but the military is saying they have been refused permission to operate on the private property the oil facilities are built on, so there's fuck all they can do (the further out from the refinery, the greater the circle you have to defend, the less successful that defence will be).

The head of the Russian Volunteer Corps has appeared with a number of prisoners taken in recent attacks. He has proposed a ceasefire so they can discuss the repatriation of POWs to Belgorod.

"Dye-bombing" the Russian polling booths is now a widespread phenomenon. A green dye attack in Yekaterinburg and a red dye attack in Zelenogradsk, adding to the black dye attacks seen recently in several other locations. On more than one occasion a police officer patiently waited until the dye attack was completed before arresting the culprit in a very mild way.

Edited March 16 by Werthead

[Wilbur]

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

Increasing alarm on Russian Telegram and even some media channels about the success of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. A number of facilities in and around the Samara region have been hit hard overnight, and Russian sources are saying they are hitting the distillation units. Everything else can be replaced pretty quickly, but if destroyed, these units can take months to replace (and are too expensive to have tons of spares sitting around). The success of the Ukrainian drone attacks is starting to seriously dent the production and output that the Russian economy relies on.

I have been a little surprised that the Ukrainian drone attacks to date have not been focused on the cracking installations, since they are indeed far more difficult to repair or replace than simple storage facilities.

Perhaps the Ukrainian drone accuracy and control is improving to the point where they have increased confidence in hitting the FCC units themselves.

[ThinkerX]

I have to wonder...

Will these Russian Rebels be able to take Belgorod? And what will Putin's reaction be should they do so?

Also, I wonder if the Russian Rebels are actively recruiting on Russian soil, and if so, how much that will swell their ranks. If this starts to snowball...

 

[Werthead]

12 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

I have to wonder...

Will these Russian Rebels be able to take Belgorod? And what will Putin's reaction be should they do so?

Also, I wonder if the Russian Rebels are actively recruiting on Russian soil, and if so, how much that will swell their ranks. If this starts to snowball...

 

Improbable, but they do seem to be having more success this time around then last. Last time they only managed a raid which lasted about 2 days and then had to flee. This has been going on for longer, and reportedly they have IFVs, MRLS and even helicopter support. They have also taken much larger numbers of prisoners and either killed or wounded a much larger number of opposition forces. They've also caused much more significant chaos over a larger area, apparently convincing thousands of civilians to flee the area despite government and military personnel trying to encourage them not to leave.

In response, Russia is counter-attacking much heavier than before, using tanks, artillery and glide bombs, to what effect is unclear as the rebels do seem to be staying in the fight. It is unclear if the rebels are getting drone support.

As of five hours ago, Belgorod itself, or at least its outlying areas, seem to have come under rebel long-range artillery fire so the situation still appears to be developing. Last time Russia had to divert significant forces into the area, but they had larger standing forces already there this time which seem to have been routed, and some reinforcements have already been defeated or at least fought to a standstill.

All things being equal, the Russians should defeat this incursion but clearly at a higher cost than last time. It's mad it's still going on.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

New round in the Taurus saga.

There was a meeting of the Defense comittee of the Bundestag (parliament), which are secret as a matter of principle. The topic under discussion was Taurus and whether it could potentially be delivered to Ukraine, so they had Breuer (Inspector General of the Armed Forces) there.

He was basically saying, if Germany delivered Taurus to Ukraine, they also need to deliver the technical equipment for analyzing and storing targeting data. And there's only a fairly limited number of those. So if Ukraine gets those, it impacts Germany defense capabalities (I admit I had to chuckle at German defense capabalities).

Did I mention that those defense committee meetings are secret? So the next scandal is now, that somebody leaked information of a secret meeting to the press. I am not saying the SPD leaked it, but it most definitely supports Scholz position to not deliver Taurus to Ukraine.

There's also some pushback from people on the committee (without going into details for obvious reasons), basically saying that the leaked version is not entirely accurate (again no details/corrected versions to be had as those meetings are (supposed to be) secret).

Strack-Zimmermann, who is the chairperson is also not too impressed with the leak.

[Werthead]

The Slavyansk-on-Kuban refinery was hit by multiple drones overnight. There was no active air defense in the area.

The Syzran refinery was reportedly still burning half a day after the attack.

One of the main airports in Moscow (Domodedovo) was brought to a halt after Ukrainian drones targeted the runway.

Belgorod was hit again this morning by artillery fire from Russian partisans, showing they are still fighting on Russian soil.

Edited March 17 by Werthead

[Bironic]

15 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

New round in the Taurus saga.

There was a meeting of the Defense comittee of the Bundestag (parliament), which are secret as a matter of principle. The topic under discussion was Taurus and whether it could potentially be delivered to Ukraine, so they had Breuer (Inspector General of the Armed Forces) there.

He was basically saying, if Germany delivered Taurus to Ukraine, they also need to deliver the technical equipment for analyzing and storing targeting data. And there's only a fairly limited number of those. So if Ukraine gets those, it impacts Germany defense capabalities (I admit I had to chuckle at German defense capabalities).

Did I mention that those defense committee meetings are secret? So the next scandal is now, that somebody leaked information of a secret meeting to the press. I am not saying the SPD leaked it, but it most definitely supports Scholz position to not deliver Taurus to Ukraine.

There's also some pushback from people on the committee (without going into details for obvious reasons), basically saying that the leaked version is not entirely accurate (again no details/corrected versions to be had as those meetings are (supposed to be) secret).

Strack-Zimmermann, who is the chairperson is also not too impressed with the leak.

If Scholz really wanted he could have sent them already, he doesn't so he comes up with all kinds of excuses, he could just say I don't want to send them basta, and we wouldn't have that whole drama. Germany has 300 Taurus ready and another 300 in storage. By refurbishing those in storage or by making an alliance/ringtausch of some sort with the other two nations that have TAURUS: South Korea (260 pieces), Spain (48), all these issues could be fixed, hell even the UK agreed to get german Taurus in exchange of Storm Shadow to Ukraine...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Without a doubt.

But then he would need to project his non-existent authority within his party to get sceptics like Wiefelspütz (I'd like to hear our English speakers trying to pronounce his name likesay three times in a row), instead of pretending to have authority within his goverment.

If he truely wanted to deliver Taurus without losing too much within his party he could allow a free vote on it. But like I said before, he has now committed himself to that idiot position.

With the Leopard drama, he could hide behind the US/Biden delivering tanks and spin his reversal as him forcing Biden to deliver tanks in exchange for the German Leos. So that the hesistant chickenshit drama was infact him playing a blinder on the diplomatic stage. Strong and stable leadership etc. (yes, that's how it was spun domestically).

This is not gonna work this time. I want to reiterate, I voted for the lady with the poor campaign performance in that election (well not her personally (different district), but for her party).

Edited March 17 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Bironic]

14 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Without a doubt.

But then he would need to project his non-existent authority within his party to get sceptics like Wiefelspütz (I'd like to hear our English speakers trying to pronounce his name likesay three times in a row), instead of pretending to have authority within his goverment.

If he truely wanted to deliver Taurus without losing too much within his party he could allow a free vote on it. But like I said before, he has now committed himself to that idiot position.

With the Leopard drama, he could hide behind the US/Biden delivering tanks and spin his reversal as him forcing Biden to deliver tanks in exchange for the German Leos. So that the hesistant chickenshit drama was infact him playing a blinder on the diplomatic stage. Strong and stable leadership etc. (yes, that's how it was spun domestically).

This is not gonna work this time. I want to reiterate, I voted for the lady with the poor campaign performance in that election (well not her personally (different district), but for her party).

Haha i do have some tongue twisters in my language as well that both German and English speakers would struggle with…  I agree he has maneuvered himself into a corner that he can’t come out now without losing face somehow… still it would have made more sense to use the Biden defense again and say Germany doesn’t deliver Taurus until USA delivers AGM 158 JASSM, that would have given him time until 2025 at least and possibly forever if Trump is elected…yeah baerbock or habeck were the best candidates around… hell I come to think that given the rather terrible performance of this coalition when it comes to ecology, social and financial issues (which I hoped could actually get something done after the 16 years of sleepwalking under merkel) if not a chancellor laschet would have been the better option…

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

The problem there is the FDP. They are basically playing opposition in goverment. Their stance on Ukraine is pretty much their only saving grace.

[Bironic]

Surprising to no one Russian state tv has declared Putin the winner of the presidential election. According to russian prognosis he gets ca 88% of the vote and over 75% of russians went to vote, both are record numbers not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union... I guess Kiriyenko gets a pay raise...

[ThinkerX]

 

If these Russian oil refineries keep getting bombed, then that could cripple Russia's entire economy - and their war effort.

[Werthead]

Confirmation that the Russians were indeed repulsed from Berdychi last week, as they mounted a major armoured push again yesterday. They ran into heavy counter-fire from cluster munitions and drones, and Ukrainian armoured forces mopped up what was left.

Belgorod hit again today by the partisan forces. The Russians are really missing the boat on counter-attacking them properly and driving them out of range of the city.

Russia has blamed both Moldova and Ukraine for a drone attack on Transnistria which destroyed a helicopter. Analysis suggests the drone was added in post-production. Additional camera angles show no drone at all, and the helicopter appears to have been left at the airstrip in 2003 and has not moved since. Some shots show it looking quite delipidated before it spontaneously combusted. OSINT sources divided on this being an accident or a deliberate fake-out.

[Maithanet]

Perun had his latest video on the Russian Arms Industry/Exports.  The key takeaways were:

 - Russia was the #2 arms exporter in the world in the 2010s through 2023 (behind the US).  In 2023, it had fallen to 5th (behind, IIRC US, China, France and Germany).

 - If you look at weapons orders, rather than exports, in 2023, the picture is much worse, with only a tiny number of countries placing orders (mostly nations under sanctions like Iran and North Korea).  Basically all of the 2022-23 exports were to fufill contracts placed several years ago.  Some of Russia's biggest customers like India and China are showing a dramatic pullback.

  - This is not surprising as Russia can't exactly fill orders for weapons or ammo right now with everything going to the front.  However, this goes beyond that, because buying weapons from a country is a long term commitment - you need to be confident they will deliver those weapons and be able to provide things like ammo, tech support, repair kits, etc in the future.  Russia does not seem like a reliable partner in this regard, since their weapons might be rerouted to the front without warning, their arms facilities are getting bombed, and western sanctions may make them turn to inferior knockoffs (think microchips meant for refrigerators appearing in Russian missiles) to fill orders.

 - The Russian arms industry was struggling prior to 2022, since they have not had a lot of success with deploying new designs (Armada and Su-57 come to mind).  Instead, they have mostly relied on providing modest upgrades to Soviet weapons at a very reasonable price.  There was definitely a market for that in 2000-2020.  But the Ukraine war has demonstrated that many of those weapons are somewhere between obsolete and obsolescent.  This war has not been a good advertisement for Russian aircraft, helicopters, tanks or IFVs in particular (and those are the biggest money items). The Russian arms industry probably cannot recover it's lost market share without being able to build and deploy new, effective weapons.  Something Russian will have trouble finding the R&D budget for.  The only real exception that comes to mind are for drones, which Russia could realistically sell in large quantities in the future. 

This probably isn't something that is going to have much impact on the Ukraine war directly.  At the moment, the Russian arms industry is working nonstop, so it barely matters how much of that is going for export, beyond the economic costs of not having that cash in hand.  However, when the war ends/refreezes, Russia will face a very uncomfortable choice of scaling down production (and risk much of the arms industry going bankrupt with no other clients) or continuing wartime production, which the Russian economy cannot sustain indefinitely. 

Just another thing to add to the list of sacrifices that Russia is making in the name of invading Ukraine. 

Edited March 19 by Maithanet

[Werthead]

Some early indications that Ukraine may have retaken the Bilohorivka area, on the western approaches to Lysychansk. Ukrainian forces launched a serious assault on the trench complex near the town and took it after using some novel tactics (using heavy-duty, anti-vehicle landmines converted into "trench-clearers", or "trench-cleaners" depending on the translation).

It's unclear how heavily dug in Russia is in this sector, I know there was some speculation they'd actually been focusing more on attack then defence along this area. If they have left it as a weak point, Ukraine might take a look at retaking Lysychansk, and if they can do that, they can gain fire control over Severodonetsk.

Losing the twin cities would be a massive blow to Russia. However, that's getting ahead of ourselves. So far they've just stormed one area of fortifications and are now holding against counter-attacks.

At the moment the combined effect of the oil campaign looks like a daily output reduction of 600,000 barrels, which is a lot (nobody can seem to agree if it's 10% or closer to 16% of Russia's total production capability). That's much higher than the losses sustained in the January-February "warmup" campaign.

[Bironic]

Yes Russia is pretty much FUBAR, even if they somehow „win“ the war…

Massive sanctions, some of them since 2014, rampant corruption and grift, large scale alcoholism & tobacco addiction, domestic violence and violent crime, collapsing healthcare systems with COVID, Tuberculosis, HIV, suicides, low birth rates, unhealthy food and habits especially amongst men, massive brain drain, mostly young and educated people leaving the country, permafrost thaw ruining infrastructure, natural resources that one day will be gone, Soviet „mono“ cities with extreme social issues such as poverty and lack of jobs, pension system that hasn’t been reformed since ever, aging and shrinking population, their Arms/weapons and rocket/ space/ missile industry losing ground against all competitors, and so does what’s left of the other industries, total diplomatic debacle on every front, alienating almost every nation on earth, loads of money put into surveillance and repression of internal „enemies“ aka their own people, ethnic conflicts, no real plan or system in place what to do after Putin…

and now they have a war with over 90000 Russians killed at the very least, even more wounded, thousands of pieces of equipment destroyed, billions of dollars poured into this war that could have been spent on all the above issues… not that the period before was great with the wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan etc but they went from bad to worst…

[Kalbear]

A darkly horrible part of Ukrainian success at smashing the refineries is increased overall oil prices, which in turn increases the cost of gas in the US, which in turn makes it more likely Trump takes power.

It is still the right choice and almost certainly the only way to get Russia to withdraw, but it is a real damned either way situation.

[Werthead]

Russian partisan forces have hit Razumnoye, a large Russian military base on the outskirts of Belgorod. The partisans are claiming - for the total campaign so far- 613 Russians killed, 829 injured, 27 captured. 7 tanks destroyed, 20 BMPs, 6 howitzers and 4 APCs. No independent confirmation (and even the Ukrainians are treating these numbers with one eyebrow raised).

Kofman, who has been pretty pessimistic throughout the conflict, surprisingly measured in his latest analysis. He notes Ukraine has weaknesses and these could be exploited into a breakthrough, but generally Russia has proven unable to do so in the past. He notes their superiority in glide bombs, but that in other areas Ukraine has achieved parity or superiority. He seems to agree with the general consensus that 2024 will be the make or break year for the conflict, based on military supplies, churn of equipment and men (which he thinks will bite Russia hard in 2025) and the US Presidential Election.

One reply quotes an estimate of internal European shell production to exceed 1 million in Jan-Dec 2024, which means with the Czech initiative, Ukraine will receive 2 million shells this year, which is what they need to mount a successful defence (though not the 2.5-3 million they need to undertake moderate counter-offensives as well).

 

Edited March 19 by Werthead

[Werthead]

Engels Airbase in Russia, on the Volga, has come under drone attack. Unclear on the extent of the damage, but some of Russia's strategic bomber fleet is based there, including long-range bombers and aircraft used to launch cruise missiles and glide bombs at Ukrainian targets. Satellite photos showed quite a lot of planes on the tarmac just a few days ago.

The lack of lots of social media and video from civilians (Saratov, a pretty big city, is right next door) suggests maybe it wasn't a huge strike, but there is one video from a nearby car park indicating at least one very large explosion.

The scale of the repulsed attack on Berdychi is becoming clearer. The Russian 15th Separate Guards Brigade took an absolute pounding with several vehicles destroyed and at least dozens killed. The survivors reporting on the attack seemed to be genuinely shell-shocked. It looks like they expected an uncontested advance after Avdiivka.

More trouble in Buryatia, where a woman was jailed for quoting from Pushkin at a memorial to the writer. This was perceived as being anti-government in some fashion.

Belgorod has come under attack for the seventh day in a row. Kursk city has also seen some explosions in its vicinity, one of which hit a power substation and plunged the city into darkness for several hours.

[Wilbur]

Here is RLL's video on the naval conflict in the Black Sea.