Werthead Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 (edited) Ukraine has sunk the patrol vessel Sergey Kotov. Apparently one of four vessels Russia had outfitted as anti-sea drone vessels with a view to intercepting attacks on the Kerch Bridge. The Kotov was formerly assigned to the Moskva and has now suffered a similar fate. 52 minutes ago, Bironic said: Buryatia doesn't border China and I don't think there is any movement there to join China, they're not of Han-Chinese ethnicity, in fact the majority of the people in Buryatia identify as russian and it would only change one oppressive regime with another one. I didn't say anything about Buryatia joining China, the idea was that Buryatia could declare independence, then seek recognition from nearby powers like Mongolia (many Buryatian men have fled over the border to avoid the draft) and China. In this scenario Russia is too weak to press a claim there because it is just starting to fragment. I can see an alternate scenario in which Russia is in danger of fragmenting/collapsing but China agrees to bail it out in return for its ancestral lands in the far east, including Vladivostok. The fact that China recently reorganised maps of the area to show Russian cities with Chinese names is interesting in that light. China won't go to war to get them, and might even hesitate to hoover them up whilst chaos reigns in Moscow, but getting a deal to get them without a shot being fired would be an extremely prestigious coup for Xi or his successor. Edited March 5 by Werthead wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 1 hour ago, Bironic said: In Slovakia a pro russian government was elected (not necessarily because it was pro Russian but it was a side effect). In Italy two out of the three parties in government are pro Russia and the third one is halfway there. In France there is a reasonable chance that the next president will be pro russian (either right wing extreme or left-wing populist), in Germany you have constantly around 40 % of the population that thinks there should be less or no military aid to Ukraine. In the US Trump and the Republicans have a reasonable chance to win the elections (white house and/or Congress) If you look at the statistics who supports Ukraine and who doesn't do as much, you have a clear divide within Europe/the West and there is no sign that the countries that are at the lower end will step up, while there are clear indications that the more supportive countries seem to run out of material, money etc. I don't agree with most of that also. The biggest party in the Slovak government is friendlier towards Russia (but it wasn't the main reason it was elected, as you say) but the other parties are not. When it was elected, I feared they would back Hungary in its maneuvering against Ukraine but Hungary was left on its own. Meloni in Italy has also been surprisingly positive on Ukraine. There was a headline in the NY Times only a few days ago saying that "Biden Unites With an Unlikely Ally to Champion Ukraine". The unlikely ally being Meloni. In any French election, Russia isn't going to be the driver of votes but even Le Pen has put some distance between herself and Putin. Germany, I give some credence since it has a post world war reluctance to get deeply involved in wars, but i'm not sure I believe the 40% figure. Another I imagine the financing angle is driving more negativity than in other countries. I'll ignore the comments about the US since I explicitly said I was talking about Europe. There is a question about throwing more and more money at Ukraine. I touched on that in my last email. There is definitely some leadership lacking on that side. Although, the EU did get a major 4 year package agreed for Ukraine only in February. Generally, I think Scholz makes people jump to the wrong conclusion because of his dithering. As he is reacting to shadows, when he could be leading on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bironic Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) On 3/6/2024 at 1:13 AM, Padraig said: I don't agree with most of that also. The biggest party in the Slovak government is friendlier towards Russia (but it wasn't the main reason it was elected, as you say) but the other parties are not. When it was elected, I feared they would back Hungary in its maneuvering against Ukraine but Hungary was left on its own. True that they are not actively supporting Putin as some feared but they're also not supporting Ukraine (even though you could make the argument that the previous government has given as much as they could, so there's not that much left to give anyways) On 3/6/2024 at 1:13 AM, Padraig said: Meloni in Italy has also been surprisingly positive on Ukraine. There was a headline in the NY Times only a few days ago saying that "Biden Unites With an Unlikely Ally to Champion Ukraine". The unlikely ally being Meloni. Meloni yes she has been surprisingly vocal in her support for Ukraine. But there are three major caveats to that: the highest ranking military officer in Italy has said that there's a limit to what Italy can afford to give, two parties in her coalition are Putin friendly and a large block of her own party is as well... All of that is probably the reason why Italy has been quite underwhelming when it comess to actual military help for Ukraine (rather than words)... On 3/6/2024 at 1:13 AM, Padraig said: Germany, I give some credence since it has a post world war reluctance to get deeply involved in wars, but i'm not sure I believe the 40% figure. Another I imagine the financing angle is driving more negativity than in other countries. https://www.zeit.de/news/2024-03/06/umfrage-grosse-mehrheit-gegen-taurus-lieferung Translation/short summary: around 58% of germans against sending Taurus to Ukraine, according to recent polls, this has risen since the last poll. In this poll 31% of germans are against sending weapons of any kind to Ukraine. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1454716/umfrage/umfrage-zu-waffenlieferungen-von-deutschland-an-die-ukraine/ According to this poll from early february 43% are against sending weapons to Ukraine. Something that has been quite stable over the last months... On 3/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, Werthead said: I didn't say anything about Buryatia joining China, the idea was that Buryatia could declare independence, then seek recognition from nearby powers like Mongolia (many Buryatian men have fled over the border to avoid the draft) and China. In this scenario Russia is too weak to press a claim there because it is just starting to fragment. In this case I am sorry that I misread you. But then again I think it's much more likely that regions where ethnic minorities make up the overwhelming majority of the regions population are much more likely to try to secede, especially regions that have a long history of fighting for independence, regions that are relatively close or even bordering nations (Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, the Islamic World) that are at least somewhat hostile to Russia (as opposed to the PRC, North Korea, Mongolia, Kazakhstan). This basically means the Caucasus (and within the caucasus Chechnya especially) rather than regions in Siberia/russian far east, where the above factors do not really exist (at least not to the same degree). In the case of Chechnya I would make another caveat: as long as the Kadyrov-Putin axis is alive and kicking I don't think much will happen... If both or one of them dies, all bets are off... On 3/6/2024 at 12:38 AM, Werthead said: I can see an alternate scenario in which Russia is in danger of fragmenting/collapsing but China agrees to bail it out in return for its ancestral lands in the far east, including Vladivostok. The fact that China recently reorganised maps of the area to show Russian cities with Chinese names is interesting in that light. China won't go to war to get them, and might even hesitate to hoover them up whilst chaos reigns in Moscow, but getting a deal to get them without a shot being fired would be an extremely prestigious coup for Xi or his successor. Yes that could happen... But that would mean Russia has already collapsed or is collapsing before something like that happens... First Ukrainian HIMARS confirmed as destroyed... Switzerland has voted against a special fund to finance Ukraine rebuilding, which means that help for Ukraine will come from the normal budget, meaning it will almost certainly be lower than 6 billion that the foreign minister wanted and it will be diverted from the humanitarian aid to third world countries, which is fucked up tbh...On a more positive note there are a number of things that Switzerland tries to do, one is handing over 130 million owned by former Ukrainian president Janukovich to Ukraine, possibly a federal export risk guarantee for swiss firms investing in rebuilding in Ukraine, and the parliament has supported a motion to the the federal government how the 7.4 billion of russian money frozen on swiss banks can be used to help Ukraine (the idea being to hand them over). Switzerland is also trying to set up a "peace" conference with Ukraine, so far Russia has declined to participate, while the US and China have not commited to it either, which to me sounds like it will be dead in the water... Edited March 7 by Bironic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 (edited) Sweden has officially joined NATO. Good news: if there’s one thing I detest, it’s neutrality. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68506223 Edited March 7 by The Dragon Demands wiedzma, Ser Scot A Ellison, Matrim Fox Cauthon and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 To quote the famed Captain Zapp Brannigan: “I hate these filthy Neutrals, Kif. With enemies you know where they stand but with Neutrals, who knows? It sickens me.” mormont, Jace, Extat, wiedzma and 2 others 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erik of Hazelfield Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 And what a relief it is that this shit show of our NATO admittance is finally over after two years. wiedzma, Ser Scot A Ellison and Bironic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matrim Fox Cauthon Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 Finland and Sweden abandoning over half a century of neutrality and formally joining NATO? That sounds like a clear strategic victory for Vladimir Putin. The Dragon Demands, Prince of the North, House Balstroko and 6 others 1 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erik of Hazelfield Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 In other good news, the Czech Republic say they have now secured the funding for the 800 000 artillery shells that they managed to source outside Europe. 18 countries contributed and now the much-needed ammo can reach Ukraine within weeks. Maithanet, Bironic, wiedzma and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted March 7 Share Posted March 7 To get back to the Taurus debate/debacle and why Ukraine won't be getting them any time soon. If you want a cheat code decipher Scholz's Ukraine policy, then you have to look at Washington. Scholz won't add any weapon systems that are not covered by something similar in an US package. Basically Germany hiding behind Uncle Sam and saying: look we're not doing anything more than the big guy over there does. (feel free to use any amount of mockery for that kinda leadership on display). As we all know, Ukraine aid packages are held up by the Ghouls Of Putin in congress. Thus neither Uncle Joe, nor Uncle Sam can really provide cover for little Olaf. At least he is writing the cheques for Ukraine (and the FDP is not blocking it for whatever nonsensical reason, they usually come up with these days). Bironic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 8 hours ago, Bironic said: True that they are not actively supporting Putin as some feared but they're also not supporting Ukraine (even though you could make the argument that the previous government has given as much as they could, so there's not that much left to give anyways) Meloni yes she has been surprisingly vocal in her support for Ukraine. But there are three major caveats to that: the highest ranking military officer in Italy has said that there's a limit to what Italy can afford to give, two parties in her coalition are Putin friendly and a large block of her own party is as well... All of that is probably the reason why Italy has been quite underwhelming when it comess to actual military help for Ukraine (rather than words)... In other words, ignoring Germany, there is not a huge drop in support in Europe (to bring us back to how this started). There was always some Putin friendly politicians but if Italy can't afford to give anything to Ukraine, that's primarily an economic factor not a Ukraine factor (and existed at the start of this conflict, its not new). I think the media is rather lazy about this topic. They see what is going on in the US and just applied it everywhere to make the story simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 Good long-form article on how Ukraine lost 3 Abrams In a defensive standoff. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/07/in-berdychi-ukraines-m-1-abrams-tanks-made-their-last-stand-and-halted-the-russian-advance/?sh=41fa2b7e4e70 Bironic, Wilbur and Corvinus85 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Revenge Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 On 3/7/2024 at 12:45 PM, Erik of Hazelfield said: In other good news, the Czech Republic say they have now secured the funding for the 800 000 artillery shells that they managed to source outside Europe. 18 countries contributed and now the much-needed ammo can reach Ukraine within weeks. https://t.co/90a44nAW0n If I’m reading this article correctly it looks like the 800k shells are broken into two shipments of 300k and 500k shells. Enough money has been collected for the shipment of 300k shells, but more funds are needed to secure the remaining 500k shells. Still good news and hopefully just a matter of time before the remaining money can be collected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makk Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Ukraine has signed a decree to improve rotation. Conscripts will be discharged into the reserves and will not be called up again within 12 months. Really addresses manpower rumours if they can handle that acceptably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 (edited) Apparently US estimates are that Russia lost 14,000 dead and maybe 30,000 all-in casualties to take Avdiivka, but Ukraine's losses were low thousands dead, but more injured. That may track with Zelensky's claim of much lower-than-expected KIA for the war to date (even if he was only counting the definitely-KIA of 31,000 and not probably-KIA-but-unconfirmed figure of more like 45,000). Ukraine is doing an exceptional job of keeping casualties as light as possible given the insane intensity of the combat. That said, exhaustion and injuries are still a major problem, so they still need a large influx of new troops and replacements. Interesting comments by Norway suggesting that the 800,000 shells are simply the the first part of the initiative and they believe a grand total of just over 1 million shells might be locatable (some rumours floating around that some of the shells are coming from South Korea via third parties and also the Philippines, which would be interesting). Edited March 8 by Werthead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 11 minutes ago, Werthead said: Apparently US estimates are that Russia lost 14,000 dead and maybe 30,000 all-in casualties to take Avdiivka, but Ukraine's losses were low thousands dead, but more injured. That may track with Zelensky's claim of much lower-than-expected KIA for the war to date (even if he was only counting the definitely-KIA of 31,000 and not probably-KIA-but-unconfirmed figure of more like 45,000). Ukraine is doing an exceptional job of keeping casualties as light as possible given the insane intensity of the combat. That said, exhaustion and injuries are still a major problem, so they still need a large influx of new troops and replacements. Russia is sacrificing the equivalent adult male population of a small city, in order to capture ruins. That is madness. I’m reminded of Germany at Stalingrad, suffering 3,000 casualties, one day, to advance 20 metres into the Tractor Works. The Dragon Demands, Ser Scot A Ellison, wiedzma and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 (edited) Quote Russia is sacrificing the equivalent adult male population of a small city, in order to capture ruins. That is madness. No amount of sanctions will ever truly affect Russia because we fundamentally can’t afford the disruption to the global economy caused by stopping all their oil exports. So they’re not going to run out of oil money. But there’s a finite number of able-bodied men. You can fudge the numbers - use imprisoned political dissidents as cannon fodder - but sooner or later you’re going to hit the ceiling. Particularly in a country with a low birth rate the past three decades of the post Soviet era. Putin is willing to expend more men though, being an autocrat. But another factor is they already had LABOR shortages due to the low birth rate. If they draft more able bodied men the economy will suffer even more. And that’s assuming they take time to train conscripts. Edited March 12 by The Dragon Demands wiedzma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 8 minutes ago, SeanF said: Russia is sacrificing the equivalent adult male population of a small city, in order to capture ruins. That is madness. I’m reminded of Germany at Stalingrad, suffering 3,000 casualties, one day, to advance 20 metres into the Tractor Works. The madness is not any less from the war being smaller, but let's try and keep a little perspective before we start breaking out Stalingrad comparisons. All of the KIA on both sides in 2+ years of this war are basically equal to that of the Second Battle of Kharkiv, itself only a medium sized two week battle on the Eastern Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said: No amount of sanctions will ever truly affect Russia because we fundamentally can’t afford the disruption to the global economy caused by stopping all their oil exports. So they’re not going to run out of oil money. But there’s a finite number of able-bodied men. I feel like that's a mischaracterization of what sanctions are trying to accomplish. They are seeking to reduce Russian energy profits (ideally to zero, but everyone knows that will never actually happen). They also want to make selling goods to Russia, particularly hard to manufacture things like microchips and specialized parts. On both these fronts the sanctions have been imperfect, like always, but they pretty clearly have been at least somewhat successful. The struggles of the domestic Russian aircraft industry is one example, crappy consumer electronics showing up in Russian missiles is another. Anyone who expected the Russian economy or war effort to simply collapse as a result of sanctions is either engaging in wishful thinking or doesn't know much about sanctions. North Korea and Cuba have been able to manage for 60+ years under sanctions, and the Russian economy is far more robust than either of them. Which Tyler, The Dragon Demands, Bironic and 1 other 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The madness is not any less from the war being smaller, but let's try and keep a little perspective before we start breaking out Stalingrad comparisons. All of the KIA on both sides in 2+ years of this war are basically equal to that of the Second Battle of Kharkiv, itself only a medium sized two week battle on the Eastern Front. Ditto with the finite number of able bodied men. Ukraine should have nearly 3 million healthy men between the ages of 18-40 who have not yet been mobilized, with 150k more coming of age each year the war continues. Russia's population is four times larger than Ukraine's. And at least Ukraine also uses a fair number of women in its armed forces. Neither side in this war will run out of troops because of a literal lack of men left in the country. If that happens it will be for other reasons. Edited March 8 by Hmmm Bironic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erik of Hazelfield Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 So what would be needed for Ukraine to win the war? And can the democracies of the world provide it to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts