Kalbear Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) Elon Musk has weighed into the whole issue on the US political side, pointing out with a ridiculous lack of evidence that the immigration bill's point is to make a number of immigrants into citizens so that they will always vote for Democrats and make the US a one-party state. That it also fucks over Ukraine support is icing on the cake for him given his previous position on Ukraine sovereignty. https://mastodon.social/@randahl/111883890026900358 Meanwhile, the bipartisan bill in the senate to give Ukraine aid is hitting the latest roadblock - the Republican senators who worked on it. It was unlikely to make it to the house anyway, but the idea that the people who worked on it for months saying it was the only way to provide Ukraine aid are now killing even this after agreeing to it is very rich. The notion that Ukraine will get aid in 2024 from the US appears to be increasingly flawed aside from some weird accounting tricks (like the US selling to Greece, which sells to Ukraine), and the previous predictions that Ukraine was running out of time appears more accurate. Finally, Zelensky appears to want to shake up the military command - reported before was dismissing their main commander, but it looks more pervasive than that. A major point of contention seems to be recruiting/drafting more people into the military for their needs (Zaluzhny) vs not doing that (Zelensky) and making more progress. Zelensky seems wrong in this point, IMO - it's hard to justify wanting a breakthrough AND fewer troops, especially with the fecklessness of US political will. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/01/zelensky-zaluzhny-ukraine-military-shakeup/ Edited February 6 by Kalbear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 In better news, here's a report about how drone-piloted jet skis sunk yet another Russian ship: https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/europe/ukraine-drone-jet-skis-russian-warship-intl/index.html It's another great example of how expensive assets are very, very difficult to keep around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Kalbear said: Finally, Zelensky appears to want to shake up the military command - reported before was dismissing their main commander, but it looks more pervasive than that. A major point of contention seems to be recruiting/drafting more people into the military for their needs (Zaluzhny) vs not doing that (Zelensky) and making more progress. Zelensky seems wrong in this point, IMO - it's hard to justify wanting a breakthrough AND fewer troops, especially with the fecklessness of US political will. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/01/zelensky-zaluzhny-ukraine-military-shakeup/ Zelensky seems to be heavily focused on maintaining Ukraine's economy functional, to the detriment of the actual war effort. Another example has been the focus on naval drones and fighting the Russian Black Sea fleet - while it has been successful in breaking Russia's economic blockade, I'm sure the ground forces would have preferred if those resources were sent their way instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Russian demining efforts utilising the TWIG-1000 "short log". SeanF and Jace, Extat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) I think it is becoming increasingly clear that this year's US presidential election is going to be the most important one in many decades. It is hard to not see the international order unravel into warfare and chaos in case of a Trump win at this point. Ukraine at least has the EU next door to back them up. East Asia though... Edited February 6 by Hmmm wiedzma and Jace, Extat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) Edit: Double. Edited February 6 by Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68223148 Tucker Carson to ask all the hard questions of his paymaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derfel Cadarn Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, Which Tyler said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68223148 Tucker Carson to ask all the hard questions of his paymaster. “Vladimir, why are you so good?!?” Lord of Oop North, wiedzma and Rippounet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I think I may be the only person on the board to get that reference. Derfel Cadarn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Revenge Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Zelensky's tensions with Zaluzhny are also a matter of internal Ukrainian politics. Apparently Zelensky fears Zaluzhny will challenge him for the Presidency and is looking to take him down a peg to secure his position. Seems like a reckless move on Zelensky's part. Zaluzhny is popular with the troops, I can't see how this doesn't backfire on Zelensky. Avdiivka is fast looking like this year's Bakhmut. Russia has made gains in the north of the city, and accompanied with their recent progress in the south of the city, the AFU still in the city should probably be withdrawn lest they risk being encircled. Unless holding Avdiivka is essential to the big picture, it's time for Ukraine to cut their losses. According to the War on the Rocks podcast (highly recommend), Ukraine is facing a 5:1 shell deficit across the front and it's likely only going to get worse. I'm very pessimistic about Ukraine's future. If Congress fails to pass another big aid package for them, I really do not see a happy future for Kiev. They are going to lose if the West abandons them, and it's already happening. DireWolfSpirit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Hmmm said: I think it is becoming increasingly clear that this year's US presidential election is going to be the most important one in many decades. It is hard to not see the international order unravel into warfare and chaos in case of a Trump win at this point. Ukraine at least has the EU next door to back them up. East Asia though... From a risk perspective the damage has been done. It is clear that US deals and allyship cannot be relied on. Even when in theory the government is run by sane people it still cannot give aid that it says it wants to due to logjams and roadblocks. Why would anyone risk their safety on this fickle ally? Trump has shown that whether or not he is in power his party will be doing things his way. Ain't gonna change any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hmmm Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Kalbear said: From a risk perspective the damage has been done. It is clear that US deals and allyship cannot be relied on. Even when in theory the government is run by sane people it still cannot give aid that it says it wants to due to logjams and roadblocks. Why would anyone risk their safety on this fickle ally? Trump has shown that whether or not he is in power his party will be doing things his way. Ain't gonna change any time soon. True. America's reputation as an ally has already taken a huge hit. With ugly ramifications. I still think that if Trump loses in November he might finally get jettisoned by the Republicans. Or at least lose enough of his influence to no longer be able to scare moderate Republicans into doing his bidding like now. At some point, even a lot of his real supporters should get second thoughts about supporting a movement that just keeps losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, mormont said: I think I may be the only person on the board to get that reference. Short log? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The EU is putting through a pretty huge deal despite fierce opposition and it sounds like it will be renewed every year for four years regardless of what happens, so that at least puts a lot of juice behind Kyiv again. It's more economic aid than military aid, but individual EU countries are pouring in as much as they can. They are starting to get spooked by the idea of a Russian attack on NATO, so there seems to be calculations going on about whether to go all-in and start sending Ukraine stuff that digs deep into national defence, or to start holding stuff back for a possible later defence. I think there's also much more awareness of a coupling between a Russian win and how that might bolster North Korea, so South Korea could start playing a large role in events, Japan as well. The US I think is in bigger trouble than was first thought over the aid to Ukraine being decoupled from the border. At least when they were together the logic was a deal could be passed, if a tough one, but Trump seemed to realise that would make Biden look stronger on the border, so he's trying to squash that possibility altogether. The realistic Republicans who are waking up to the threat posed by Putin are still trying to hold things together, but they don't seem to be making much headway. War on the Rocks is somewhat solid but I think suffers from Kofman in particular being very pessimistic, and he has been since the very start of the conflict. His analysis can be good, but he's been forecasting doom almost since Day One, and has only perked up a few times. Perun I think is a lot stronger, identifying strengths and weaknesses in both sides and cutting through the "mainstream media narrative" angle (which is almost always, "Russia winning, all hope lost for Ukraine," or "Ukraine winning, Russian collapse imminent," sometimes in the same week) which I think Kofman sometimes sinks into. 1 minute ago, Hmmm said: True. America's reputation as an ally has already taken a huge hit. With ugly ramifications. I still think that if Trump loses in November he might finally get jettisoned by the Republicans. Or at least lose enough of his influence to no longer be able to scare moderate Republicans into doing his bidding like now. At some point, even a lot of his real supporters should get second thoughts about supporting a movement that just keeps losing. Ironically, a Biden win would probably cement a Trump plan to run for 2028, on the grounds he'll be 82 then but that's clearly not an impediment (for Biden anyway), unless he drops dead (or goes to jail, or both) in the meantime. The election is too close to call based on current polls, with a big question mark over Biden's electability versus any other Democrat. I think that's a tall ask as almost any other Democrat is going to be an unknown, and I think these last elections have shown that name recognition has a big impact. Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Revenge Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I think Trump should be narrowly favored at this point. He keeps dominating in the swing state polls from the best pollsters and apparently polls now vs in Sept-October are only a couple points different. I don't think it's an advantage to be an incumbent these days. I don't know how bad Trump would be on Ukraine that isn't already happening unfortunately. No more aid from the US is already occurring. I suppose Trump could try to pull the US out of NATO, but I believe there was a section of one of Biden's stimulus packages that included a provision saying no President can unilaterally pull the US out of NATO, it would have to be through Congress, and I don't see that happening, even if the GOP takes the House and Senate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Werthead said: Russian demining efforts utilising the TWIG-1000 "short log". That's fucking horrible! That poor poor guy. Fuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 (edited) Lately, on another site, I have been 'debating' with a couple of people who claim to be American 'tourists' in Moscow or at least Russia. According to them... No rolling blackouts... No press gangs snatching people from businesses... No financial difficulties - at least for them... Supposedly, 'college kids' do criticize the war now and again. These guys tell them to shut up because the US government 'wants to kill everybody in Russia.' Ukraine is on the brink of collapse (they get enraged when the war's duration is pointed out and how long that claim has been repeated) Russian casualties, as reported in the Western media, are bogus. I am unsure if these are Militia/MAGA types who went to Russia or if they are merely trolls. I do wonder how, if they are in Russia, they avoid the attention of the secret police for the crime of participating on message boards outside of Russia. Edited February 7 by ThinkerX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Makk Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 hours ago, Kalbear said: Finally, Zelensky appears to want to shake up the military command - reported before was dismissing their main commander, but it looks more pervasive than that. A major point of contention seems to be recruiting/drafting more people into the military for their needs (Zaluzhny) vs not doing that (Zelensky) and making more progress. Zelensky seems wrong in this point, IMO - it's hard to justify wanting a breakthrough AND fewer troops, especially with the fecklessness of US political will. This is very sad to me as they both appear to have done exceptional jobs. I would be a bit cautious about taking too much from the leaks that papers like the Washington Post and New York times report on. The people making these leaks tend to be biased and irresponsible to be talking in the first place before any decision is reached. There is definitely something there though as both Zelensky and Zaluzhny have aired differences in opinions during interviews. The two issues mentioned here are contradictory, I wouldn't be surprised if it was something more along the lines of Zelensky demanding the offensive last summer, Zaluzhny saying he would need an extra half a million troops for it, and then someone leaking misconstrued details. I can see both perspectives. Politically Ukraine had to make an effort last summer to attack while Zaluzhny felt it was unlikely to work. Further Zelensky believes that to have a future Ukraine can't sustain constant war for too long, while Zaluzhny is thinking more short term. I tend to side with Zaluzhny at the moment, while Russia are being so inept with ill-considered attacks, Ukraine doesn't need to take risks on another offensive, Russia cannot sustain that forever. However if Russia decided to dig in, be more patient and attritional then Ukraine would probably have to come up with another plan. 5 hours ago, Gorn said: Zelensky seems to be heavily focused on maintaining Ukraine's economy functional, to the detriment of the actual war effort. Another example has been the focus on naval drones and fighting the Russian Black Sea fleet - while it has been successful in breaking Russia's economic blockade, I'm sure the ground forces would have preferred if those resources were sent their way instead. For the longer term, the economy is exceptionally important to Ukraine's freedom. I don't know what the opportunity cost of investing in aquatic drones was, but they have been exceptionally successful. To be taking out 100+ million dollar military assets with a bunch of things that can be produced for a few thousand dollars a pop is sensational. These ships were not just blockading Odessa, they were projecting force and providing surveillance. Forcing the fleet to the far side of Crimea opened up drone attacks onto Russian air defence in Crimea, which opened up missile attacks on air fields, bases, bridges, all of which heavily helps the land war as well as the economy (which also helps the land war). Which Tyler, Jace, Extat, DireWolfSpirit and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 hours ago, Hmmm said: I think it is becoming increasingly clear that this year's US presidential election is going to be the most important one in many decades. It is hard to not see the international order unravel into warfare and chaos in case of a Trump win at this point. Ukraine at least has the EU next door to back them up. East Asia though... The Republicans are basically a Fifth Column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, Hmmm said: True. America's reputation as an ally has already taken a huge hit. With ugly ramifications. I still think that if Trump loses in November he might finally get jettisoned by the Republicans. Or at least lose enough of his influence to no longer be able to scare moderate Republicans into doing his bidding like now. At some point, even a lot of his real supporters should get second thoughts about supporting a movement that just keeps losing. If Trump loses in November and Congress does it's job in January '25, then Trump is gone forever as a political force, IMO, there's no shot he is in line for the 2028 nomination after a failure in 2024. He either takes the White House by hook or by crook this year or he's out forever. The question is whether MAGA disappears as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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