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Ran

Glimpses from Anne Groell

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Ramsay Bolton has been made Lord of Winterfell back in ASoS or AFfC. After Tyrion was convicted and Sansa disappeared, the Lannisters had no longer a claim to Winterfell. But Ramsay had, through fake Arya Stark. So King Tommen gave Winterfell to Ramsay Bolton - but despite that, Roose Bolton is still the Lord of the Dreadfort and Warden of the North. Winterfell would be now in Bolton hands, but it is no longer be the major seat of the North, as the Warden of the North rules the North from the Dreadfort. And if Roose is going to father children on Fat Walda, they would inherit the Dreadfort and the North, not Ramsay's children with fake Arya. It is similar to the situation in the Riverlands. Riverrun no longer is the major seat of the region, Harrenhal is.

I'm actually not sure if Winterfel is no longer the major seat of the north, like Riverrun for the Riverlands. IIRC (though it is admittedly a long time since I read the books), the Lannisters made a point of not taking away the status of "great house" or "lord/lady paramount" from the Starks, unlike with the Tullys which were explicitly stripped of titles and lands. It's true that Lord Bolton was made warden in the north, but since AGOT it has been quite unclear exactly what that entails. In AGOT, Jaime was named warden of the east after Jon Arryn's death, but obviously Robert Arryn (and Lysa, by extension) was not stripped of his titles and he remained lord (paramount) of the Vale. I've got the impression that the warden thing is a military command and often a purely theoretical one (nobody in the vale ever obeyed Jaime so fat good this wardenship did him). In this case though, Bolton may act as the crown's approved commander for finishing Stannis off, and as such he could actually use his position of warden of the north (for Joffrey, then Tommen) to call on and command other "loyal" (to the Lannisters- forces. However, once the war is over and Stannis' head is on a pike, theoretically the lordship over the north would eventually rest with a son of (false) Arya and Ramsay, with Ramsay or Roose acting as 'regent' in the meantime (supposedly in the name of first "Arya" and then her children).

The Lannister initially wanted this plum position in the north for themselves, which is why Sansa and "Arya" were pardoned. Tyrion would take the de-facto lordship of the north (though Bolton could run the crown's armies in the north at first, as warden) in Sansa's name, and after that one of their children would be lord/lady paramount. With Sansa missing (and presumably officially suspected of regicide), the claim would go to "Arya".

I haven't seen a jubilatory thread on the completion message? I thought this would be a big topic. Is everybody to busy on the TV series forum? Anyway, here's a HURRAH! :drool:

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So, the way this is really going to work out, is that Ramsay and Roose are going to be dead, killed by the Others, and Jeyne Poole's child will inherit the Dreadfort. :)

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How I read the prophecy:

Gotcha, had forgotten that exact wording about Stannis. I agree, there is no doubt the first part is about Stannis. I'm just not sure they will ever meet. Dany can still slay the lie of Stannis being AA by living to defeat the others when Stannis dies.

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On the cloth dragon we agree as well, but the during the actual prophecy, were the phrase 'mummer's dragon' is not actual spoken, it's still kind of ambiguous if this will be a false Targaryen pretender, or just another real Targaryen who happens to have a better claim then Dany but no real power (i.e. dragons of his own).

But the mummer's dragon line was used in Quaithe's prophecy to her, and it's hard to imagine the image Dany saw isn't related to Quaithe's prophecy.

"The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare. After her will come the others. Crow and kraken, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Remember the undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

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Gotcha, had forgotten that exact wording about Stannis. I agree, there is no doubt the first part is about Stannis. I'm just not sure they will ever meet. Dany can still slay the lie of Stannis being AA by living to defeat the others when Stannis dies.

Doesn't that seem kind of anti-climactic, though?

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'Slayer of Lies' most likely also refers to Stannis (i.e. the blue-eyed King without shadow), but it does not necessarily mean that they have to be mortal enemies. Dany might just 'slay' the concept of him being Azor Ahai because she is really Azor Ahai. End of story.

As things have developed I'd not be surprised if the stone dragon vision would be reduced to a possible future only. I don't see Stannis burning Shireen, nor do I see Melisandre having the power to control a magically animates stone dragon on Dragonstone over a distance of thousands of miles.

That future disappeared when Davos got Edric away from Dragonstone and Stannis decided to go North.

Yeah, well, I don't think so. I'm going with Stannis turning into the Night's King and becoming the personification of the Others. And while I'm here, I said nothing about Melisandre controlling the stone beast. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out she has no clue what she's doing and comes to regret her part in all this.

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Doesn't that seem kind of anti-climactic, though?

That's the other side to this whole issue -- why would the Undying show her nothing of her role in doing away with the Others if that is her destiny? Maybe that's causing me to grab at straws, but that's a big reason why I think Stannis will turn into the Night's King. That way, that vision of Stannis and the great stone beast will actually have some long term, significant relevance. He would be representative of the primary evil she must face. As you've pointed out to me before, the vision says nothing of the Lannisters, or the Tyrells, or anyone else she must conquer -- Stannis seems to be singled out for a reason.

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'Slayer of Lies' most likely also refers to Stannis (i.e. the blue-eyed King without shadow), but it does not necessarily mean that they have to be mortal enemies. Dany might just 'slay' the concept of him being Azor Ahai because she is really Azor Ahai. End of story.

On the cloth dragon we agree as well, but the during the actual prophecy, were the phrase 'mummer's dragon' is not actual spoken, it's still kind of ambiguous if this will be a false Targaryen pretender, or just another real Targaryen who happens to have a better claim then Dany but no real power (i.e. dragons of his own).

As things have developed I'd not be surprised if the stone dragon vision would be reduced to a possible future only. I don't see Stannis burning Shireen, nor do I see Melisandre having the power to control a magically animates stone dragon on Dragonstone over a distance of thousands of miles.

I would really hate it if the series turned into a bad kind of "High Fantasy" with animated stone dragons remotely controlled and stuff like that.

Although this might be more interesting, I also do not see a way how Stannis could plausibly turn to the Others. So far the Others have been described to be so anti-human that I cannot imagine how any alliance could look like.

And if any more main characters are turned into zombies I'll seriously reconsider my assessment of the series' quality as well...

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I would love it if Melisandre turns to Jon, who then becomes the Big Bad.

Stannis ironically then becomes the good guy, leading the resistance until Dany shows up

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Melisandre is not necessarily "the big bad", especially in relation to the others, allthough her methods are barbaric. An alliance of sorts with Jon is not completely out of the question I think, depending on circumstances. Beggars can't be choosers and allies may be in short supply for Jon, while Melisandre may be interested in Jon from a prophecy POV (maybe starting to realise Stannis isn't what she thought he was, assuming she all meant that sincerely).

Is there any news about the presence of absence of AFFC POV's like Sansa, Cersei, Brienne?

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Is there any news about the presence of absence of AFFC POV's like Sansa, Cersei, Brienne?

Yes. The last word was:

Cersei, Asha and Arya: 100% in.

Sansa, Aeron, Arianne: 100% out.

Areo, Jaime, Brienne, Samwell: no comment either way.

From the recent snippets, it appears that Victarion is also now in.

Just to make the situation more confusing, this info is somewhat old now, so it's possible GRRM has changed his mind in the interim and some characters who were in may now be out and vice versa.

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The whole Night-King-thing I still don't get. Yes, there is a (slight) similarity between the Night King and his wight/Other wife, and the relationship between Stannis and Melisandre. But both, Stannis and Melisandre have no intention at all to help the Others, and it would be need a huge change in the story to make Stannis and ally/servant to the Others instead of their mortal enemy. I really believe the great tragedy of Stannis might be that he is trying to do the right thing, but is failing because he is not the man who is destined to it. Stannis came north to protect the Realm. He wants to prepare the Realm to fight the War for Dawn. He is not up there to consolidate his power for the sake of power, he wants to unite the Realm to prepare it for the attack of the Others.

And Melisandre, well, she is literally hot. It's pretty unlikely that she has something to do with the Others.

The Boltons - either Roose or Ramsay - are way better candidates for a possible alliance with the Others. If Stannis and Asha are pushing them back, even threatening their existence by uniting the North against them, they might run out of options. And if that's time the Wall falls, I can see Roose seeing sense in striking a deal with the Others.

Oh, and Wert, wasn't the last on the Arianne chapters that three or so went out of ADwD, but not necessarily all Arianne chapters he had written?

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I would love it if Melisandre turns to Jon, who then becomes the Big Bad.Stannis ironically then becomes the good guy, leading the resistance until Dany shows up

I'd like that twist but I think the writer is too conventional to go in that direction.

The whole Night-King-thing I still don't get . . .

My own speculation on Stannis doesn't necessarily entail that his own story will exactly mirror the previous Night's King. I'm not even sure Melisandre will be directly involved in such a scenario. My theory gears more to the idea that Stannis' plans will go seriously wrong during the course of ADwD and he'll retreat back to the Wall, desperate and despondent. At that point, he'll finally give in and burn Shireen which will raise the great stone beast from Daenery's vision. I also think Davos will be dead at this point, which would be key, since Stannis would never go through with it if Davos was there to stop him.

Also, the Night's King aspect to it, I admit, I'm rather less sure on. I do think think Stannis will burn Shireen and that a great stone beast will be raised. And I do think this will happen after Stannis becomes seriously desperate and after Davos dies. From that point on, I don't know what to think exactly.

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I'd like that twist but I think the writer is too conventional to go in that direction.

GRRM too conventional? Seriously? :stunned:

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GRRM too conventional? Seriously? :stunned:

I've always thought he's a lot more conventional than people make him out to be, not that I have anything against it.

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GRRM too conventional? Seriously? :stunned:

I don't think that he's "too conventional"--the story works as it is--but so far the story has been structured in a traditional way, even if there have been some surprises along the way. None of the big reveals really come out of left field, even if--because of misdirection--GRRM makes them seem that way.

------

I really believe the great tragedy of Stannis might be that he is trying to do the right thing, but is failing because he is not the man who is destined to it. Stannis came north to protect the Realm. He wants to prepare the Realm to fight the War for Dawn. He is not up there to consolidate his power for the sake of power, he wants to unite the Realm to prepare it for the attack of the Others.

I largely agree with that. I think that what makes Stannis such an interesting villain is that in a lot of ways, he really is a traditional fantasy hero. He has a Gandalf-esque magical adviser, he's the subject of an ancient prophecy, he's having visions of a great battle between good and evil... and (to him) that means if he fails, all of humanity will be extinguished. IMO, that idea will ultimately drive him to cross any other ethical line, because under the circumstances how could he not do anything he could to save the world?

Oh, and Wert, wasn't the last on the Arianne chapters that three or so went out of ADwD, but not necessarily all Arianne chapters he had written?

That was my understanding as well (although I think it was two Arianne chapters and one from another POV).

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So on the prophecy of the "great stone beast", why do we have to believe it's Melisandre's stone dragon?

I'm not sure if this has been put out there before but here goes,

The prophecy from the house of the undying states:

"From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire."

Could this be UnGregor?

A smoking tower= Tower of the hand, Cersei set it ablaze, knowing the interconnectedness of the Red Keep it is entirely possible that the black cells are connected to the Tower of the hand.

A great stone beast= No specific mention of dragons, Gregor was the mountain that rides, mountains are made of stone, especially undead zombie mountains.

Took wing= this is the most obvious reference to a dragon, yet could refer to "da UnGregor" causing much havoc around the realm, "taking wing" per say.

Breathing shadow fire= We have seen the importance of shadows in the practice of necromancy, see mirri maz dur's role in the recreation of Drogo, I believe the passage was something like "Terrible shadows danced on the walls of the tent". And in blood magic, see Melisandre's birth videos.

Anyway may be a crackpot theory, but I don't think we can rule it out, Melisandre's prophecy? about the stone dragon could be a red herring.

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But both, Stannis and Melisandre have no intention at all to help the Others, and it would be need a huge change in the story to make Stannis and ally/servant to the Others instead of their mortal enemy.

Do we truthfully know that Melisandre has no intention of helping the Others? I don't think there is anything in the books to suggest to us what Mel's real motivations are. Certainly we will learn in Dance, but I don't think anyone can say with certainty, like you have, that they know what Melisandre's intentions are.

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Do we truthfully know that Melisandre has no intention of helping the Others? I don't think there is anything in the books to suggest to us what Mel's real motivations are. Certainly we will learn in Dance, but I don't think anyone can say with certainty, like you have, that they know what Melisandre's intentions are.

I agree. Until Davos brought it up, she never showed any inclination to go North and a prolonged, bloody civil war in the south can only help the Others as they move against the Nights Watch.

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Do we truthfully know that Melisandre has no intention of helping the Others? I don't think there is anything in the books to suggest to us what Mel's real motivations are. Certainly we will learn in Dance, but I don't think anyone can say with certainty, like you have, that they know what Melisandre's intentions are.

Yes we do, in the sense that we 'know' anything in the novels. Look if the point is that GRRM might write Sansa to be the next Brienne-style warrior maid, yes he could do that. Is it probable?

Everything we have seen about Melisandre in both word and gesture (and I'm not talking just about her words either, she rescued Davos from the dungeon after all, and gave Cressen a chance to spill his wine) suggests her enemy is the Great Other. She might be misguided, but it runs completely contrary to my sense of her character or the plot or the rythym of the books for her to be a machiavellian schemer who wishes the Others to triumph.

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