He's not dead

[Darius23]

Westeros is a continent that thrives on intricate schemes and deliberate deception. It seems silly to me that someone would site Occam's Razor for this because in ASOIAF the most plausible explanation is usually a false explanation that a schemer like Littlefinger or Varys wants everyone to believe so they don't go digging for the truth.

[Morte]

Occam's razor.

"from among competing hypotheses, selecting the one that makes the fewest new assumptions usually provides the correct one, and that the simplest explanation will be the most plausible until evidence is presented to prove it false."

Jon Snow is injured but he will recover.

+1

And I really really REALLY don't want another zombie (or fire resurrected - who also are zombies technically, as you can see in Dondarrion and UnCat, both are driven by they last emotions/thoughts, which makes them different from another, but still not human anymore).

I would be happy if Jon simply survives the assault; or maybe it wasn't a assault to begin with, but just a plot to allow him to disappear (isn't the man who almost put the dagger through Jons throat the one looking so "it wasn't me, sorry"? - as if it was not intended?).

Beside his wounds shouldn't be that bad.

Edit: "as if it was not intended"

[Buried Treasure]

Occam's razor.

"from among competing hypotheses, selecting the one that makes the fewest new assumptions usually provides the correct one, and that the simplest explanation will be the most plausible until evidence is presented to prove it false."

Jon Snow is injured but he will recover.

The case for Occam's razor is not strong here. The predominant Jon dies and gets resurrected theory is that he slips into Ghost then gets resurrected by Mel's fire. Warging into Ghost upon death as not a new assumption as this has been hinted at strongly from the prologue and Mel's vision. The ability of Red Priests to resurrect the dead has also been previously established. Jon being merely injured is the simplest explanation but given the important role he has in the series we are justified in looking for a more complex answer.

And always remember that Occam's Razor is a guideline, not a rule. Be careful of facts that are subjective in nature or may not be fully established. In the end nothing actually dictates that a explanation must be simple.- TV Tropes

And I really really REALLY don't want another zombie (or fire resurrected - who also are zombies technically, as you can see in Dondarrion and UnCat, both are driven by they last emotions/thoughts, which makes them different from another, but still not human anymore).

I think Jon being resurrected (as part of George’s master plan for his main characters) would explain why we had the previous case of fire resurrection. If Beric had not started coming back to life in CoK then Jon’s resurrection at this late stage would be coming out of nowhere. Beric was the warm-up act for Jon’s headliner. Catelyn I count as a continuation of Beric’s case – it is one spell used 8 times on two people, not two separate instances.

[SitaBrittany]

When I was reading Arya XI in ASoS, I was convinced at the end of that chapter that she was dead. The Red Wedding was happening and she was running through it basically screaming for her mother, and then Sandor is riding towards her, and the text goes:

She heard a loud splashing and looked back to see Stranger pounding after her, sending up gouts of water with every stride. She saw the longaxe too, still wet with blood and brains. And Arya ran. Not for her brother now, not even for her mother, but for herself. She ran faster than she had ever run before, her head down and her feet churning up the river, she ran from him as Mycah must have run.

His ave took her in the back of the head.

A Storm of Swords, US Paperback, pg 710

Emphasis added-the last line is the last line in Arya's chapter. After Robb and Catelyn and the rest of the Red Wedding (Arya XI is after Catelyn is killed) I was absolutely horrified (and thoroughly sure) that Arya was killed as well. But she wasn't. That was the beginning of my serious doubts over the supposed fates of the characters, especially when we "learn what happens" to someone in a different person's POV chapter. Because of that, I wasn't shocked to find out that Theon and Davos were both still alive in ADWD.

It is because of this experience, first with Arya, then with Bran/Rickon, Theon, and Davos (and many others, I'm sure) that I wholeheartedly believe that Jon is still alive...and not just within Ghost. I don't think he dies at all from the stab wounds. But this is just my personal belief, no one has to feel that either!

[Lady of Long Lake]

When I was reading Arya XI in ASoS, I was convinced at the end of that chapter that she was dead. The Red Wedding was happening and she was running through it basically screaming for her mother, and then Sandor is riding towards her, and the text goes:

A Storm of Swords, US Paperback, pg 710

Emphasis added-the last line is the last line in Arya's chapter. After Robb and Catelyn and the rest of the Red Wedding (Arya XI is after Catelyn is killed) I was absolutely horrified (and thoroughly sure) that Arya was killed as well. But she wasn't. That was the beginning of my serious doubts over the supposed fates of the characters, especially when we "learn what happens" to someone in a different person's POV chapter. Because of that, I wasn't shocked to find out that Theon and Davos were both still alive in ADWD.

It is because of this experience, first with Arya, then with Bran/Rickon, Theon, and Davos (and many others, I'm sure) that I wholeheartedly believe that Jon is still alive...and not just within Ghost. I don't think he dies at all from the stab wounds. But this is just my personal belief, no one has to feel that either!

Welcome to the forums SitaBrittany! Happy to have you joining us:)

[kephv]

Beside his wounds shouldn't be that bad.

He was only stabbed through the stomach, shoulder blades, and probably somewhere else in the chest.

But still, he could certainly just survive that, even if the wounds are that bad - we saw Moqorro heal Vic, perhaps Mel knows some similar healing magic.

[TeamDanyArya]

This is something we've discussed many times on this forum and as we know GRRM himself responded to a question on why he had been killed off by saying "you think he's dead do you?", which pretty conclusively tells us he's going to be around for a bit longer. The real question of course is in what form and this very much depends on where the story is ultimately going. In the beginning it was assumed that the real enemy are the Others and therefore that the assassination attempt provided the opportunity for Mel to kiss him better and raise him up as Azor Ahai to save the world. On the other hand some of us now think that its not so straightforward, that the Others aren't evil incarnate, and that Jon will either recover or be raised up by Ice magic rather than Fire magic. Its going to be interesting...

I like the idea of Ice magic since the series is called "A Song of Ice and Fire". We've seen plenty of Fire from Melisandre and Dany. The only Ice magic I can think off the top of my head are the Others and the old gods of the North. I just hope Jon's not dead. He's one of my favorites but he has made a lot of enemies trying to do the right and noble thing.

[SitaBrittany]

Welcome to the forums SitaBrittany! Happy to have you joining us:)

My thanks for the kind welcome, ser.

[ViserionsFire]

I have found several references to when what would normally be blood or bleeding is referred to as smoking.

First is when Sam blindly stabs the Other with his obsidian blade. The text says “When he opened his eyes the Other’s armor was running down its legs in rivulets as pale blue blood hissed and steamed around the black dragonglass dagger in its throat. It reached down with two bone-white hands to pull out the knife, but where its fingers touched the obsidian they smoked.”

This description indicates both steaming blood at the wound and that when the fingers touched the obsidian there was smoke. In this context it shows that the Others can be killed.

Second is when Drogon is speared just prior to Dany becoming the Dragon Rider. The text says, “Black blood was flowing from the wound where the spear had pierced him, smoking where it dripped onto the scorched sands. He is fire made flesh, she thought, and so am I.

This description tells that Drogons blood smoked when it touched the sand. Once away from the fight, Drogon no longer shows signs of injury.

The third reference is when Bowen Marsh has stabbed Jon in the belly. The text says “He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking.

Here we are left hanging. We don’t know if Jon falls because he is unconscious or weak. I can say this, I was once stabbed in the back and the knife pierced my left kidney. I was able to fend off the attacker until he left. Once he left, I collapsed and woke sometime after (a few minutes or ten minutes I don’t know) and called the operator to get the police (prior to 911). If Jon wasn’t stabbed in the kidney, liver or heart, I think he’d be OK. It doesn’t say he was stabbed in the stomach, it says “belly” and the wound to the shoulder blades is above the vitals, so, even though I’m not medically trained, by my experience, I think Jon comes out of this attack OK, without having to warg.

I have a further question that relates to all this. Are these descriptions relating to wounds a coincidence? If not then what is the relationship between the Others, Dragons and Jon?

[Val the Wildling Princess]

There's another smoking wound. Victarion's arm is healed by Moqorro the red priest and a couple of days after he's healed, his wound smokes, I don't know if all these smoking wounds are connected in some way, my bet is that yes, smoking wounds probably have a meaning, I don't think it's a coincidence that GRRM uses the word "smoke" for Jon's wounds if he wanted to say "steam" caused by the intense cold.

[The Dornishman's Wife]

Are these descriptions relating to wounds a coincidence?

I wouldn't say coincidence, but there are still very fundamental differences between the three: With the Other, his fingers (i.e. their skin) smoked and not his blood, with Jon, his open wound (mainly due to the blood, one is to assume) smoked and with the dragon, the blood only smoked when it came in contact with the sand. The implication being that obsidian burns Others (think of smoking chemical burns, or of the depiction of "silvering" in another recently successful HBO series), but wounds steam in the cold, which only looks like smoke. The dragon's blood might have been so hot that it burned the sand (though you can't burn pure silica) or so corrosive that it reacted with the sand (which however fits less well with the whole 'fire made flesh' idea).

[ViserionsFire]

I wouldn't say coincidence, but there are still very fundamental differences between the three: With the Other, his fingers (i.e. their skin) smoked and not his blood, with Jon, his open wound (mainly due to the blood, one is to assume) smoked and with the dragon, the blood only smoked when it came in contact with the sand. The implication being that obsidian burns Others (think of smoking chemical burns, or of the depiction of "silvering" in another recently successful HBO series), but wounds steam in the cold, which only looks like smoke. The dragon's blood might have been so hot that it burned the sand (though you can't burn pure silica) or so corrosive that it reacted with the sand (which however fits less well with the whole 'fire made flesh' idea).

Yes, I recognize the differences and therefore why I posed the question. When Sam became "Slayer" he saw that there was steam at the wound and it was when the fingers touched the obsidian that they smoked. Remember that all the Watch were near hypothermia prior to the attack from the Others. So, why was it specifically noted that the wound steamed and that the fingers smoked when in contact with the obsidian. You distinguished the effect of Drogons blood touching the sand and that silica cannot burn. Somehow, I don't believe that chemical reactions would be a plot device in this story. So, yes I do see differences and wonder why the wound of the Other and the wound of Jon are described differently even though they are both in cold temps, where the Others wound "steams" and Jon's wound was "smoking". The fact that the term smoke is specifically used for these three events and a forth as Val indicated with Moqorro's healing of Victarion, is there a relationship between the Others, R'hollr, Dragons and Jon?

[hotweaselsoup]

Yes, I recognize the differences and therefore why I posed the question. When Sam became "Slayer" he saw that there was steam at the wound and it was when the fingers touched the obsidian that they smoked. Remember that all the Watch were near hypothermia prior to the attack from the Others. So, why was it specifically noted that the wound steamed and that the fingers smoked when in contact with the obsidian. You distinguished the effect of Drogons blood touching the sand and that silica cannot burn. Somehow, I don't believe that chemical reactions would be a plot device in this story. So, yes I do see differences and wonder why the wound of the Other and the wound of Jon are described differently even though they are both in cold temps, where the Others wound "steams" and Jon's wound was "smoking". The fact that the term smoke is specifically used for these three events and a forth as Val indicated with Moqorro's healing of Victarion, is there a relationship between the Others, R'hollr, Dragons and Jon?

I've noticed that GRRM likes to play with oxymorons - "white shadows", "frozen fire", "black fire", etc - the idea of light and shadow, or fire and ice merged in some impossible way. I think the blood "smoking" - something normally associated with fire - in the extreme cold fits with this tendency on the author's part. It may have a deeper meaning, but it may also just be poetic.

[Val the Wildling Princess]

I've noticed that GRRM likes to play with oxymorons - "white shadows", "frozen fire", "black fire", etc - the idea of light and shadow, or fire and ice merged in some impossible way. I think the blood "smoking" - something normally associated with fire - in the extreme cold fits with this tendency on the author's part. It may have a deeper meaning, but it may also just be poetic.

Well, in the prologue of AGOT there's that quote "Nothing burns like the cold" that seems to fit here pretty well.

[Lord of Cheese]

I remember quite clearly that the smoking and steaming with Sam and Jon is due to the fact that its freaking cold, and the text in both cases says as much. So 'smoking' is a more dramatic way to say 'steaming heaps'. I doubt its a subtle hint for fire and Jon being a 'dragon'.

[Autopath]

Occam's razor.

"from among competing hypotheses, selecting the one that makes the fewest new assumptions usually provides the correct one, and that the simplest explanation will be the most plausible until evidence is presented to prove it false."

Jon Snow is injured but he will recover.

I agree with the above. Human beings throughout our history with access from anything to rudimentary medical care to advanced medical care (without magic) have survived more grievous injuries than Jon's chapter describes.

Sometimes, people just survive. It might come down to milimeters or less when it comes to stab wounds. How many times in modern medicine have we heard "If the bullet/knife/etc had been a fraction of a milimeter to the left, he/she would have died."

You don't need fiction to find numerous examples of so-called "miracles." ...The fact is, the human body is an amazing machine and in 2012, we still don't understand all of its strength and mysteries.

My belief is that he wargs into Ghost in fear and pain and probably lingers there for some time while his physical body recovers, possibly under the protection of a mixed group of loyal Wildlings (Tormund's people and those who pledged themselves directly to Jon) and loyal Night's Watch (Edd, Satin, etc.).

Old Nan said that the monsters couldn't cross as long as the Wall stood and the Night's Watch stayed true. Now we've seen the crumbling of the Night's Watch which started with the murder of Jeor Mormont.

Jon has more work to do in this series, and it won't be as UnJon.

[davidjones2492]

+1

And I really really REALLY don't want another zombie (or fire resurrected - who also are zombies technically, as you can see in Dondarrion and UnCat, both are driven by they last emotions/thoughts, which makes them different from another, but still not human anymore).

I would be happy if Jon simply survives the assault; or maybe it wasn't a assault to begin with, but just a plot to allow him to disappear (isn't the man who almost put the dagger through Jons throat the one looking so "it wasn't me, sorry"? - as if it was not intended?).

Beside his wounds shouldn't be that bad.

Edit: "as if it was not intended"

There is one big difference between Jon and both Beric and Cat though; he's a warg. Therefore if his physical body dies; his consciousness won't actually die with it immediatly. So if he is to be resurrected via the kiss of fire (or whatever Thoros called it) he has the chance to come back completely undiminished/unchanged where they didn't; he can simply return "to base" as it were.

To me the whole series of events with Beric and Cat, as well as the prologue is there simply to lay the grounds for a Jon resurrection. I can't imagine that he's not coming back given that his story seems unfinished. However the plot would seem to demand that he be out of commission for a time. Death and rebirth is also a great way for getting him out of those pesky vows for when Rob's will arrives.

[King Cheops]

There's another smoking wound. Victarion's arm is healed by Moqorro the red priest and a couple of days after he's healed, his wound smokes, I don't know if all these smoking wounds are connected in some way, my bet is that yes, smoking wounds probably have a meaning, I don't think it's a coincidence that GRRM uses the word "smoke" for Jon's wounds if he wanted to say "steam" caused by the intense cold.

ViserionsFire also missed the reference to smoking blood during the duel between Gregor and Oberyn.

This is likely creative license than anything specific.

[Ladywhiskers]

If anything bad happens to Ghost I'm not sure if I can take it.

LEAVE THE DIREWOLVES ALONE!! :bawl:

:agree:

[wicked]

Jon is not dead. He "died" soon after the viewing of the red witch, and he is dwelling on that. It's quite clear, that the strenght of his ability as a war is second only to that of Bran. Bran is a greenSeer, and in all likelyhood so is Jon, since Jon, in my opinion, is clearlly also of Targaryen blood.

So Jon was having a VIEWING, not an experience, since it was offered in the first person. Toss in the trepidation of Jon before the assasination happened, Jon is not suck a fool.

I'm of the "Bobby" from whatchimakalit school of opinion.

MAYBE Jon, had been "struck" (doubt it,Tarley working his way through the citadel.) but he might have just been removed from CAPACITY, allowing for a new/interrim guardian of the realm, and then return whole, I mean really, we ARE looking at about AT LEAST a 3 or 4 year gap in the timelines here, what with travel, unless everyone finds dragons eggs and learns how to ride them.

I think it was a "green Dream." a skill strong in the starks, and born of fire, and since I think Jon is both a Stark, and a Targaryen. It was a premonition.