[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 3

[3CityApache]

OK. First I apologize if you took offence from my (poor, I admit) choice of words, it was not my intention to offend anyone. I was merely trying to express my own subjective feeling about this scenario you have sketched.

As to 'decorating' details, my position is just based on a way Stannis's character is described in the series. And yes, I got the impression, that, given his strict and honourable way, the subterfuge involvig faking his own death would be beyond his imagination. As I see him, he would not step back from using a subterfuge on a battlefeild, involving fake retreat or something like that, but I think he'd simply consider faking his own death dishonourable, because the antagonist might see it as an act of cowardice. As to other possible options he has or doesn't have, I guess we still don't have enough facts to judge that. With Karstark men in custody or even on his side and with the knowledge, that Freys and Manderlys wouldn't combine their forces, and with the hints about Ramsay's personality, provided he believed Theon, he probably might devise some kind of a plan, other than faking his death. But once again, I shouldn't put it the way I did.

[Happy Ent]

No problems, 3CA, thanks for your response.

So far, Stannis has shown little remorse for having Penrose or Renly killed (or, actually, killing him, depending on where you stand on the metaphysical agency issue.) He accepted onions from a smuggler. He ambushed a camp of Wildlings, taking them unawares. Stannis may be strict, but he’s no fool. In particular, he is an opportunist, tactically. We have a whole monologue from him about that, regarding his choice of hawks. If something works, he’ll take it. Different hawk. Onions. Different religion. Death-by-shadowbaby.

Moreover, I don’t think that a Trojan horse-like manoeuvre is dishonourable. (If it was good enough for Odysseus, it’s good enough for Stannis.)

But in particular, he flat-out tells Massey that there’s a good chance of false reports of his death circulating. Why would he say that? (And why would GRRM make him say that?)

[FanTasy]

Actually I think Stannis will do anything he considers just, even if there is no honor in it.

When he talks about himself, to Davos for instance, he claims to be a just ruler, not a honorable one. There is a subtle difference between being just and being honorable.

Stannis hints somewhere in the Gift Chapter at that he has learned from his mistakes at the Blackwater,

His defeat at the Blackwater was partly caused because his enemies used his dead brother 'Renly' as a commander returned from the death to influence the outcome of that battle.

I can imagine Stannis remembers this well and may have something upon his sleeve.

[3CityApache]

Moreover, I don’t think that a Trojan horse-like manoeuvre is dishonourable. (If it was good enough for Odysseus, it’s good enough for Stannis.)

But in particular, he flat-out tells Massey that there’s a good chance of false reports of his death circulating. Why would he say that? (And why would GRRM make him say that?)

I just can't imagine Stannis doing anything that could lead to calling him a coward, especially among his own men. And faking his own death may be smart, and even effective, but no one could call it brave.

As to discussion with Massey. Well, I guess I read that line as simply underlying to Massey, that during a war one has to expect false reports of any sort, so he should be sceptical, especially to the news that could otherwise discourage him from realization of his task. And after all Stannis said these reports may even be true as well.

[Tini]

I think Stannis would never come up with the idea of faking his own death in the first place. Not because it is dishonorable but because he is suffering from a certain lack of imagination. He did not come up with the plan that killed Penrose and Renly, Melisandre did. He did not come up with the idea of going to Wall to defend Westeros to gain a crown, it was Davos who suggested it. Stannis current plans involve holding the ground when the Boltons attack. Stannis on his own is somewhat predictable; surprises happen when he listens to unexpected advisors.

[Pliskin]

I think Stannis would never come up with the idea of faking his own death in the first place. Not because it is dishonorable but because he is suffering from a certain lack of imagination. He did not come up with the plan that killed Penrose and Renly, Melisandre did. He did not come up with the idea of going to Wall to defend Westeros to gain a crown, it was Davos who suggested it. Stannis current plans involve holding the ground when the Boltons attack. Stannis on his own is somewhat predictable; surprises happen when he listens to unexpected advisors.

He says black on white in Theon's chapter that false rumors of his death could spread...

Why did I say "false" ? Because Stannis adds "they may even be true" only later. So, he really intends on having false rumors spread.

[FanTasy]

I think Stannis would never come up with the idea of faking his own death in the first place. Not because it is dishonorable but because he is suffering from a certain lack of imagination. He did not come up with the plan that killed Penrose and Renly, Melisandre did. He did not come up with the idea of going to Wall to defend Westeros to gain a crown, it was Davos who suggested it. Stannis current plans involve holding the ground when the Boltons attack. Stannis on his own is somewhat predictable; surprises happen when he listens to unexpected advisors.

I am not saying you're wrong, curious though where this is text-based, so I can look it up. I remember that there is in the text that when Davos tried to pose a question about the killing of Renly Stannis said that he was asleep. I forget if Davos questioned Stannis and/or Melisandre about who planned to kill Penrose. That's why I would like to know where I can find this.

[Winterfail]

I think Stannis would never come up with the idea of faking his own death in the first place. Not because it is dishonorable but because he is suffering from a certain lack of imagination. He did not come up with the plan that killed Penrose and Renly, Melisandre did. He did not come up with the idea of going to Wall to defend Westeros to gain a crown, it was Davos who suggested it. Stannis current plans involve holding the ground when the Boltons attack. Stannis on his own is somewhat predictable; surprises happen when he listens to unexpected advisors.

I think he's imaginative enough to see that if he is to have any real chance of beating Roose, he needs to get them out of Winterfell first. If the Boltons believe he is dead, there will be no reason for them to remain in Winterfell. They will want to go home to the Dreadfort, and once they begin that journey, they can be ambushed, giving Stannis at least a fighting chance at victory. As long as Roose is behind Winterfell's walls, Stannis is pretty much screwed.

[voodooqueen126]

Why should Ramsay keep Mance in a cage? I'd assume he'd rather flay him since a caged Mance would still be dangerous, i.e. plotting to escape. And with the murders and the general mistrust in Winterfell Ramsay can't be sure to keep him caged?

Also, if Ramsay wants his Reek back, he has no intention for Mance to fill Theon's place?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isabella_MacDuff

and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Bruce

So I think that being naked, in a cage made of human skin, in a Northern Winter would be analogous situation.

[3CityApache]

He says black on white in Theon's chapter that false rumors of his death could spread...

Why did I say "false" ? Because Stannis adds "they may even be true" only later. So, he really intends on having false rumors spread.

Well, based on that sentence only, he doesn't have to intend on having false rumors spread, it's also possible he merely warns Massey not to trust every report he hears, because that's how it is with rumors, some of them turn out to be false. The reports about deaths of Arya and Sansa have already spread across the country, and not because someone faked their deaths.

Stannis in this chapter seems to be determined and ready to accept the battle from whoever come and give it to him from Winterfell, including Roose Bolton and Ramsay.

[Melifeather]

The ADWD chapter where Val demands that the little Monster is taken away from the tower he is sharing with greyscale-disfigured Shireen suggests that she is aware of the baby switch. She is looking after the boy despite that.

But, Mance's baby was the noisy "monster" and Gilly's was sweet natured. Gilly took Mance's "monster" with her and left behind her own sweet natured son.

[Melifeather]

No one is strong enough to resist torture, especially not of the kind Ramsay is doling out (we're not talking waterboarding, here).

All the arguments presented so far for anyone but the Boltons having written the letter have entirely unbelievable motives for the one supposed to have been writing it. Especially the ones which propose Stannis wanted chaos at the wall, and his family possibly harmed.

What if Stannis wrote the letter, but didn't plan on it being forwarded to the Wall? I was thinking that if the Freys are taken out in the pits, the Manderleys join Stannis and then together defeat Ramsay's forces, wouldn't Stannis want to fool Roose, who stayed behind to hold Winterfell?

[Pliskin]

But, Mance's baby was the noisy "monster" and Gilly's was sweet natured. Gilly took Mance's "monster" with her and left behind her own sweet natured son.

I thought Gilly's son was the monster...

[Melifeather]

What other plan could Stannis have than to fake his own death to gain entrance to Winterfell?

Here’s the situation from his point of view:

His host is slowly dying. Bolton sits in Winterfell, which cannot be taken. Not even in good weather, not even by a much larger force than what Stannis has.

Now, to his pleasant surprise, Bolton blunders. A number of small forces are sent out towards Stannis. Forces that he has a reasonable change of destroying. (He doesn’t even know that these forces will destroy each other because of the Manderley double turn.)

Stannis is smart enough to understand that the battle with the small forces is not the important thing. The important thing is that even if he wins, Bolton still holds Winterfell with a large enough force. Bolton, after all is no fool either. He just sent the men out to get rid of them, not to destroy Stannis.

So, what Stannis needs to do is to implement some kind of Trojan horse manoeuvre, where he pretends to be beaten in battle and smuggles his own forces back in. Using the enemy’s armour, or something like that. (Stannis doesn’t even know that the Manderleys will do just that without needing to be killed.) The fake “returning” army will declare Stannis dead, together with the necessary trappings for such a claim. A body in Stannis’s armour, with this sword. Chopped off heads. That sort of thing.

My point is that Stannis needs to plan for something like that, and I can see few alternative plans. (Maybe hoping for a secret tunnel system to reveal itself?) Winning against the Freys isn’t the point. Taking Winterfell is the point. And Stannis dies if he can’t do that. Stannis understands this now, which is why he warns Massey that there may be false claims about his demise in the future.

Things will play out pretty much like that. Stannis and the Manderleys chop up the Freys and return to Winterfell, dressed up like Freys and Manderleys. Send a Karstark raven with independent but likewise false information as well. Bolton opens his gates. (I don’t believe Ramsay will have left Winterfell. Theon disagrees. We’ll see about that. It’s a minor point.) Ramsay at least, is convinced of Stannis’s defeat and sends his triumphant letter.

This is almost, exactly my thinking. I believe that the Freys have fallen victim to the pits, the Manderleys join Stannis, and its even plausible that Ramsay is defeated by Stannis. Then, Stannis disguises his forces as Ramsay's, and together with the Manderleys, return to Winterfell. Roose lets them in believing the returning force is Ramsay's.

[sarah.jenice]

I haven't been able to read everyone's comments because I didn't discover this phenomenal Theon chapter was on the web until last night.

The timeline on when this is happening is a little confusing. I partially agree with the posts I read that this happened before Ramsay's letter to Jon, but I do have some reservations. If this happened before the letter, the Freys and Manderly have already gone out and lost, Theon and Jeyne made it to Umber and were delivered to Stannis (a long enough trek for her to get frostbite on her nose), Karstark met up with Stannis and he knew he was going to betray him so Karstark is taken captive. This just seems like a lot of things to happen in a short amount of time (not that is easy to determine the timeline), and it means that Jon's letter about Arnolf actually reached Stannis in time for him to act. Also, how did the raven find Stannis if we've learned they only fly to one location (Bran assistance)?

If Ramsay's letter is from Ramsay, that means that after all of the above events happened, Ramsay had enough time to find Stannis, defeat his entire army, bring the heads and magic sword back to Winterfell, capture Mance and make spearwife cloaks, and somehow both Theon and Jeyne are gone because Ramsay is still looking for them in the letter (though that could be explained by Jeyne going to the Wall and Theon being killed.

Maybe Maester Tybald's letter he sent to Winterfell with the map could have said other things such as Stannis having Arya and Theon. I'm not sure about that one because Ramsay thinks they are at the Wall, but he could have heard the plan to send Arya to the Wall, which would explain why he thinks she is there.

If Theon is correct and Ramsay is leading an army to meet Stannis in battle, he wouldn't be with his father. When reading people's comments on the debate about the truth/falseness of the letter to Jon, one of the reasons many people thought it was fake was because it didn't seem like something Roose would approve of sending. If Ramsay does meet Stannis in battle (not with Roose any more) and looses with Manderly turning his cloak and joining Stannis (Stannis's beheaded false friends) and he had already caught Mance (or at least a spearwife to get that story), he would have an opportunity to send this desperate letter while running back to Winterfell and still know all of things in it even without them being true (I just want to hold onto the hope that Stannis isn't defeated). To me, the letter to Jon seems so desperate, and if Ramsay lost against Stannis, lost Manderly's strength and lost the heir to Winterfell he was married to, I'm sure he would figure his dad would kill him because he would prove to be pretty useless - can't win the war and can't hold Winterfell without Arya.

I really loved the chapter. We got to see so much more of Stannis's personality, and I loved that he would still want his army to continue if he is dead, putting Shireen on the Iron Throne.

The ravens saying Theon's name was incredible. It is so exciting to feel like Bran is growing so powerful, but I am also curious about why we wants Theon to go to the weirwood. How does Bran feel about Theon? Theon did capture him and his little brother and killed many people that he loved and grew up with at Winterfell and played a role in Robb losing the war by abandoning him. I'm just not sure if Bran would want to save him. If Theon is beheaded in front of the weirwood like Asha suggests, Bran will taste that blood sacrifice just like the other one he saw. Is that what he wants?

[Glyn Tarvoke]

I think Roose is dead, and that's one reason for the hysterical tone of Ramsay's letter. Anyone agree?

I'm not sure Roose is dead yet. If he was, I think Ramsay would have put that in his letter to Jon. I think Ramsay is always trying to put himself into a power position, which I saw by such things as sending out letters maybe without being delegated authority to do so. I also thought Ramsay's letter (demanding things and making threats) something he normally does. For Ramsay, IMO that letter did not seem hysterical.

[fassreiter]

But, Mance's baby was the noisy "monster" and Gilly's was sweet natured. Gilly took Mance's "monster" with her and left behind her own sweet natured son.

Mance's son is a perfectly normal child. Being noisy is what little children do. No one in the book has ever called him or perceived him as a monster. In comparison, Gilly's son is called 'Monster' by Val because he is born of incest. And he is not especially sweet natured, but just sickly. It's NOT normal for a new born child never to scream.

[sarah.jenice]

What other plan could Stannis have than to fake his own death to gain entrance to Winterfell?

Here’s the situation from his point of view:

His host is slowly dying. Bolton sits in Winterfell, which cannot be taken. Not even in good weather, not even by a much larger force than what Stannis has.

Now, to his pleasant surprise, Bolton blunders. A number of small forces are sent out towards Stannis. Forces that he has a reasonable change of destroying. (He doesn’t even know that these forces will destroy each other because of the Manderley double turn.)

Stannis is smart enough to understand that the battle with the small forces is not the important thing. The important thing is that even if he wins, Bolton still holds Winterfell with a large enough force. Bolton, after all is no fool either. He just sent the men out to get rid of them, not to destroy Stannis.

So, what Stannis needs to do is to implement some kind of Trojan horse manoeuvre, where he pretends to be beaten in battle and smuggles his own forces back in. Using the enemy’s armour, or something like that. (Stannis doesn’t even know that the Manderleys will do just that without needing to be killed.) The fake “returning” army will declare Stannis dead, together with the necessary trappings for such a claim. A body in Stannis’s armour, with this sword. Chopped off heads. That sort of thing.

My point is that Stannis needs to plan for something like that, and I can see few alternative plans. (Maybe hoping for a secret tunnel system to reveal itself?) Winning against the Freys isn’t the point. Taking Winterfell is the point. And Stannis dies if he can’t do that. Stannis understands this now, which is why he warns Massey that there may be false claims about his demise in the future.

Things will play out pretty much like that. Stannis and the Manderleys chop up the Freys and return to Winterfell, dressed up like Freys and Manderleys. Send a Karstark raven with independent but likewise false information as well. Bolton opens his gates. (I don’t believe Ramsay will have left Winterfell. Theon disagrees. We’ll see about that. It’s a minor point.) Ramsay at least, is convinced of Stannis’s defeat and sends his triumphant letter.

I think the scenario that you have laid out is entirely plausible, and this would explain so much.

I dearly hope you are right. It would be such a good payback for the Red Wedding. Bolton would be double crossed in a similar way to how he turned on Robb. They let in what they think are friends, and when they think everyone is safe and happy inside the castle, the bloodshed begins. If they are caught off guard like Robb's army was, Stannis could easily destroy them all. It is time for Ramsay and Roose to die so the North can unite against the Others. Winter is coming after all :drunk:

[Melifeather]

OK. First I apologize if you took offence from my (poor, I admit) choice of words, it was not my intention to offence anyone. I was merely trying to express my own subjective feeling about this scenario you have sketched.

As to 'decorating' details, my position is just based on a way Stannis's character is described in the series. And yes, I got the impression, that, given his strict and honourable way, the subterfuge involvig faking his own death would be beyond his imagination. As I see him, he would not step back from using a subterfuge on a battlefeild, involving fake retreat or something like that, but I think he'd simply consider faking his own death dishonourable, because the antagonist might see it as an act of cowardice. As to other possible options he has or doesn't have, I guess we still don't have enough facts to judge that. With Karstark men in custody or even on his side and with the knowledge, that Freys and Manderlys wouldn't combine their forces, and with the hints about Ramsay's personality, provided he believed Theon, he probably might devise some kind of a plan, other than faking his death. But once again, I shouldn't put it the way I did.

I disagree. In the earlier books, Stannis is described as being a brilliant strategist. I do not think he would view this as "dishonorable".

[Melifeather]

I thought Gilly's son was the monster...

If you remember reading about Sam, Gilly and Maester Aemon's trip to Oldtown, the baby's crying upset the ship's crew.