US Politics Episode 6 - Return of the Prez

[The Anti-Targ]

I have CNN on in the background, and just watched the stupidest fucking commerical. A chinese teacher of some sort addressing a room full of chinese students, bragging about how health care, stimulus packages, and taxing the rich, put the US in China's hands.

The Dems really need to push back against this narrative that its social spending that is the reason for the US debt. It's Bush and his policies of war and tax breaks. I'm sick of this notion that tax breaks will help grow the economy, when austerity measures are clearly failing in GB and other countries.

Here's the New Zealand Experience of taxes and growth.

1992-1999 Centre right government, lowered taxes got small economic growth, left office with >7% unemployment.

1999-2008 centre left government, campaigned on increasing the top tax rate by 6c on the dollar and implemented it within it's first year. Steady and moderate economic growth, got unemployment down below 4%, then the GFC hit, and made the govt look bad. But almost no govt in NZ ever gets more than 9 years in office.

2008-to date centre-right government slashed spending, cut taxes (sort of, cut top income and corporate tax rates but increased consumption taxes --> shift the tax burden to the poorer end of town), gutted the public service (which was a bit bloated but not hugely), anaemic growth, pretty much has been unable to turn things around since the GFC. Unemployment as of Sept 2012 is higher than it's been since 1999 when the centre right was last in office.

Of course the hard right will always complain that a centre-right government never goes far enough in reforming the economy, slashing government spending and cutting taxes, so it doesn't achieve what it should. Then again the only party to the right of the national party only has 1 seat in parliament and that pretty much only because the National party stitched up a deal to hand one electorate to them.

[awesome possum]

Just saw this posted on my facebook and had to share. Let's hope a lot of Republicans feel the same way.

Memo to my fellow Republicans:

We lost...that's right...we lost. Forget the all conspiracy theories that are now starting to surface. Barak Obama has be re-elected and will be serving a second term in office. That's because we lost. The big question now is why did we lose? Here is my take on it.

We lost because somew

here along the line we stopped being the party of Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower and became the party of Todd Akin, Michelle Bachmann and Paul Ryan. Instead of studying the writings of Edmund Burke, Barry Goldwater, and William Buckley, we listened to the rantings of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Ann Coulter and a host of other hatemongers.

We lost because we gave up our basic conservative principle of preserving the institutions that strengthened our nation for the siren song of Tea Party anarchy.

We lost because we left behind our basic conservative principles of moderating change and avoiding change for changes sake for a reactionary fear of anything new and different.

We lost because we went from the conservative principle of religious pluralism and seperation of church and state to the toxic embrace of the Evangelical Reformed Calvinism sect of Christianity with all of its misogynism and exclusionism and rabid homophobia.

In short, my fellow Republicans, we lost because we forgot how to be Republicans.

It is time now for the shouters and the hate peddlers to exit the stage. In my opinion you have brought nothing of substance to it. To paraphrase a famous (or infamous) English radical leader, Oliver Cromwell, go I pray you go for you have sat far too long for whatever little good you might have done.

[TerraPrime]

I think that part of this is also the fact that the Asian population has diversified. Indians and Pakistanis are included in that category afaik and they have always been the most Democratic-leaning of that voting bloc. But you also have more Southeast Asian immigration and from what I know from talking to the Vietnamese, Laotian or Cambodian ppl that I know, they also are more Democratic-leaning than say Chinese, Japanese, or Koreans historically have been. But even those constituencies are starting to lean more Democratic in recent years than they used to. I could not actually point to a single issue that explains that movement.

I've always felt that the propensity for some of the SE Asian cultures to defer to authority and that prefer a structured hierarchical system plays in favor of the GOP, but at the same time, the higher value put in collectivism and communal responsibilities play to the Democrats' strength. If I had to guess, I'd say that the way that the GOP is showing a very xenophobic slant towards the Latinos has a chilling effect on many Asians, who have always been subjected to related stereotypes of not being American or not belonging in this country. So to witness the attack that GOP makes on immigrants, it has to feel a bit alarming.

[TerraPrime]

Just saw this posted on my facebook and had to share. Let's hope a lot of Republicans feel the same way.

I wish fewer Republicans would actually think this.

I like seeing my team win. :)

[The Anti-Targ]

If the white vote is 72% and Romney got 60% of that, that gives...hmm, let see....it's arithmetic...43.2% of the electorate? That cant be right, can it? All you need is 7% to go over the edge. 9% to be sure of an EC victory.

That the GoP cant even get that speaks volumes.

As for Benghazi, I won't get into what the Administration knew or didn't know. I can believe intelligence failures from the CIA because we have a long history of that. I don't know if the Admin actively hid something from the public about a sophisticated al qaeda attack, because I personally believe there were a mishmash of reasons for it including the video).

But the reason why people didnt care for it is clear. Just like they dont bat an eyelid at casualties in Afghanistan anymore, the fact that it is far away is reason enough for people not to care. If there was a terrorist attack on US soil the resonance with the public would be much larger. Out of sight, out of mind.

Was the white vote is 72%? That would mean a considerably higher turn out of white voters than their demographic size in the USA (~65%), and a considerably lower turn out of all other ethnicities. That would certainly add weight to my Democratic ballot stuffing in swing states conspiracy theory.

Without the video there would have been no riot. But that doesn't mean there would have been no attack. I can believe the CIA were preparing for something to happen on 9/11/12, but they were probably playing the odds that it wouldn't be Libya, so they concentrated their assets in other places. If I had to guess I would have picked Pakistan as the target for an embassy attack, what with the drone strikes and leaky border with Afghanistan. But the US probably has tight security at the embassy in Pakistan.

I think Al Qaeda used the youtube video unrest opportunistically. Sure there are plans and a state of readiness to do stuff, but it's also about being nimble enough to take opportunities when they present themselves.

Enough rhetoric coming out of America paints Islam in general as the replacement to communism as THE threat to freedom that in any Islamic country there's going to be a group or two of people willing to go to varying lengths to commit violence against America and her allies.

[awesome possum]

I wish fewer Republicans would actually think this.

I like seeing my team win. :)

Hah!

Let's say enough to actually get the government moving again, but not enough to drown out the crazies. That way, the crazies turn their focus back on the reasonable ones. They then get primaried by the tea party, only to see whatever dingbat the TP put up lose to the Dem up against them.

AKA

The Lugar

[Horus Ex Machina]

I've always felt that the propensity for some of the SE Asian cultures to defer to authority and that prefer a structured hierarchical system plays in favor of the GOP, but at the same time, the higher value put in collectivism and communal responsibilities play to the Democrats' strength. If I had to guess, I'd say that the way that the GOP is showing a very xenophobic slant towards the Latinos has a chilling effect on many Asians, who have always been subjected to related stereotypes of not being American or not belonging in this country. So to witness the attack that GOP makes on immigrants, it has to feel a bit alarming.

I have quite a few friends that are SE Asian. And if you ever talk to them they identify more with Latino or African immigrants than even other Asian immigrants. They come from difficult and poor backgrounds, especially Cambodians. I had a buddy who told me stories of his time in a Vietnamese prison before coming to the US and becoming an accountant. In jail one of them used to use unrolled toilet paper to maintain a flame that they could use to light their cigarettes. It's a story that would be familiar in my parent's Nigeria or even in Mexico. So the immigration issue would be especially drawing to them as well as the Democrat's history with the governments of those countries. Vietnamese ppl especially, tend to not like hawkish Republicans.

But playing into part of AT's last post, they Asians don't tend to vote very much. They've historically only turned out about 2-3% of the electorate when they make up close to 5%

Was the white vote is 72%? That would mean a considerably higher turn out of white voters than their demographic size in the USA (~65%), and a considerably lower turn out of all other ethnicities. That would certainly add weight to my Democratic ballot stuffing in swing states conspiracy theory.

[Horza]

Staffers: Romney campaign drank UnSkewed Polls kool-aid:

Romney and his campaign had gone into the evening confident they had a good path to victory, for emotional and intellectual reasons. The huge and enthusiastic crowds in swing state after swing state in recent weeks - not only for Romney but also for Paul Ryan - bolstered what they believed intellectually: that Obama would not get the kind of turnout he had in 2008.

They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time - poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats - and that would translate into votes for Romney.

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

Pretty amazing quotes too:

• "We went into the evening confident we had a good path to victory...I don't think there was one person who saw this coming."
  
• "There's nothing worse than when you think you're going to win, and you don't...It was like a sucker punch."
  
• Romney "was shellshocked."
  

[IheartTesla]

Was the white vote is 72%? That would mean a considerably higher turn out of white voters than their demographic size in the USA (~65%), and a considerably lower turn out of all other ethnicities. That would certainly add weight to my Democratic ballot stuffing in swing states conspiracy theory.

It was 74 % 4 years ago. Historically, minorities dont turn out in as big numbers as they should. Specifically, hispanics I think who are only 10% of the electorate.

[Usotsuki]

And note, it appears House Democrats, barely, won the Congressional cumulative vote total and yet are still quite far from having a majority (looks a net of 7 seats when all's said and done); just goes to show the power of redistricting.

That seems like something the Democrats should bring up on a regular basis, like every time Speaker Boehner gets within fifty feet of a television camera.

[Horza]

And in case anyone was wondering - no, back in 2008 John McCain knew he was done for on Election Day. Romney team's confidence appears to be unique for recent (non-Gore) election losers.

[Balefont]

And that's why dogs are terrible pets.

Bite your tongue, kitteh! Litter boxes are *nasty*.

[TrackerNeil]

Calling it now: Jeb Bush/Chris Christie 2016. Florida/New Jersey. One's married to a hispanic and governed a major swing state, the other draws the NE liberal vote and rides the non-partisan wave of hope for better politics.

Jeb Bush, maybe; Chris Christie, not a chance. The man has said too many things that are anathema to the hardliners in the conservative movement. And I wouldn't be so sure Christie could carry a single northeastern state; veep nominees rarely do.

[Sci-2]

Please God let these fools pick Santorum/Akin 2016:

Tea partyers say GOP must learn from defeat

Jenny Beth Martin, of the Tea Party Patriots, said Mr. Romney's loss to President Obama Tuesday serves as a stark reminder that “conservative” candidates lose if they do not fully embrace the limited government principles that the grass-roots movement embodies.

“He was a weak, moderate, hand-picked candidate by the establishment, the Beltway elites — and they have picked candidates repeatedly for years,” Ms. Martin said. “It does not work and it is time to find someone the next time who embraces our values.”

[TerraPrime]

Please God let these fools pick Santorum/Akin 2016:

Tea partyers say GOP must learn from defeat

Isn't that what Tyrion was saying, almost exactly?

[The Marquis de Leech]

Fuck if I know. I say each state should just get its congressional representation, without the gimme of the two Senate spots as well. Take the thumb off the scales. That compromise was in there because the Infallible Founding Fathers wanted an agrarian state of gentleman (slave-owning) farmers. We are not that any more.

Doubling the size of the House would actually go a long way to fixing the representational bias towards the likes of Wyoming. It'd also make it much less likely you'd have a PV/EV split in Presidential elections.

[sologdin]

chinese teacher of some sort addressing a room full of chinese students, bragging about how health care, stimulus packages, and taxing the rich, put the US in China's hands.

yeah, the budget stuff is fun. i usually rely on things like this for the numbers.

table S4 has the breakdown by general category. ~$3.7T out v. ~$2.9T in, resulting in a basic deficit of ~$772B for 2013.

2013 boasts $700B in discetionary military outgoing and $565B non-defense discretionary. mandatory payments account for ~$2.2T, including:

social security $820B

medicare $528B

medicaid $283B

TARP $12B

miscellaneous $571B

social security has $707B incoming and medicare has $214B incoming.

taxing the rich is a non sequitur. TARP is smaller than the military budget. medicare and SS are partially funded.

what is amazing is that the one-sixth or so of the federal budget that is a deficit is said to be because of TARP or medicare or whatever. nevermidn the $246B in interest payments on the debt itself, which is the result of cold war military luxuries. better yet to blame the shortfall on the loss of tax revenue directly caused by the 2008 crash, which is projected to cause a loss of $3.6T in revenue over the years. that's higher than the overall price of the TARP and the iraq war combined, FFS.

[The Marquis de Leech]

And in case anyone was wondering - no, back in 2008 John McCain knew he was done for on Election Day. Romney team's confidence appears to be unique for recent (non-Gore) election losers.

Excluding the likes of 1960 and 2000 (genuine knife-edges), I think you'd have to go back to 1948 to find anything like it - and Dewey had the excuse that the polls were in his favour.

[DanteGabriel]

Looking at the depressed Repub pics....was the party always this white? Or did they drive minorities away with their racebaiting this time around?

Uh.. "this time around?" Racebaiting has been their shtick since Nixon.

Doubling the size of the House would actually go a long way to fixing the representational bias towards the likes of Wyoming. It'd also make it much less likely you'd have a PV/EV split in Presidential elections.

Yes, getting rid of the representational bias would be a fine goal, but ye gods, can you imagine 870 squalling, squealing members of Congress, all stomping on each other's snouts to suckle at the public teat?

How about if you don't meet the magical population to vote ratio, the value of your vote is just prorated? So in the Electoral College and in Congress, vote values are adjusted accordingly. Maybe Wyoming's vote is only worth .87 while California gets its full 55.0. We have computers now. We can figure this shit out to two decimal places.

[Fragile Bird]

I think this might be the best thing I've found yet. Highly NSFW, but amazing.

Wow. Wow. Wow.

Finally got around to listening to this. Wow.