R+L=J v.39

[Greymoon]

If you (plural) already have this all figured out, why are you even on this forum discussing it? By the way you're talking, there's no room for arguments or discussion. If you all believe R+L=J, what's the point here, really?

[Ser Leftwich]

No, there is no evidence about her whereabouts between Harrenhal and the tower. It does seem reasonable that everyone in the Stark family, except perhaps Ned, wintered at Winterfell. We do have a conversation between Lyanna and Ned with regards to Robert's betrothal, and we still don't have any solid information about when the betrothal was made.

A scenario in time order:

(1) Ned has held Robert's bastard, Mya Stone, so she had to have been born.

(2) All parties go to the ToH, where Robert first sees Lyanna in person.

(3) While at the ToH, Lyanna hears the rumor about Robert having a bastard in the Vale.

(4) Ned and Lyanna are back in WF, where conversation about Mya Stone happens and Rickard approves of Robert's request.

(5) Ned goes back to Vale to tell Robert and be there for when Aerys calls for heads.

This scenario leaves Lyanna in Wintefell. Is there any realistic scenario of Rhaegar and co getting Lyanna out of the North?

[Jon Icefyre]

Doing it for you or not, it is legal for the Targaryens (out of practice doesn't mean became illegal) and politically less problematic than ditching Elia. Putting Elia aside would likely put her children aside too, so I have no idea why that would be the option the Dornish would want. With polygamy a decendant of House Martel is still 1st in line for the throne after Rhaegar.

Exactly not to mention the fact that considering Dorne's history with paramours and open relationships I'd say they might be more open minded than most in the matter of Polygamy. As long as Aegon is still Rhaegars heir and first in line after Rhaegar in sucession I see no problem for the Dornish.

[The guy from the Vale]

There's a number of issues here.

First of all, there have been a number of goodcounterarguments against R+L=J. Most have been refuted over time, but they were there. This means that we've seen most arguments against the theory before, and know why these arguments don't work.

Then there's the fact that it's a good place to clear up those misconceptions for people who are new to the forums.

And lastly, every now and then (approximately one every R+L=J thread) some really interesting discussion on some new facet of the theory comes up.

As for why I'm on the forums... mostly because I like most of the crackpots floating around. Doesn't mean I can call them crackpots, of course :)

[GillyTarly]

Always say it's a crackpot theory.

Elia would have been pushed aside for Lyanna.

It feels like Romeo and Juliet. *sighs*

[Greymoon]

Doing it for you or not, it is legal for the Targaryens (out of practice doesn't mean became illegal) and politically less problematic than ditching Elia. Putting Elia aside would likely put her children aside too, so I have no idea why that would be the option the Dornish would want. With polygamy a decendant of House Martel is still 1st in line for the throne after Rhaegar.

The 'setting Elia aside' line, doesn't follow the same line as 'Rhaegar married Lyanna'. Rather, as I suggested this, the thought was that Rhaegar could have planned to set her aside. He didn't because of the war, thus he didn't marry Lyanna. If Rhaegar meant to take the crown at that point, Aerys and Dorne actually matter little. The idea here, elaborated, is that Rhaegar's plans concerning Lyanna, Elia and the Kingdom were thwarted because of the war and that given the possibility, Elia would rather settle for a divorce of a sort (having her freedom back) rather than a polygamous marriage.

[Ser Leftwich]

Some small evidence from the books that setting aside of a wife can happen. In the conversation between Cersei and Jaime that Bran hears in AGoT.

"How long till {Robert} decides to put me aside for some new Lyanna?"

Cersei seems to believe that she can be set aside.

[Jon Icefyre]

The 'setting Elia aside' line, doesn't follow the same line as 'Rhaegar married Lyanna'. Rather, as I suggested this, the thought was that Rhaegar could have planned to set her aside. He didn't because of the war, thus he didn't marry Lyanna. If Rhaegar meant to take the crown at that point, Aerys and Dorne actually matter little. The idea here, elaborated, is that Rhaegar's plans concerning Lyanna, Elia and the Kingdom were thwarted because of the war and that given the possibility, Elia would rather settle for a divorce of a sort (having her freedom back) rather than a polygamous marriage.

I doubt Elia and Dorne for that matter would rather settle for a divorce than a poly marriage. This isn't just about Elia and her supposed "freedom"(as if Rhaegar was some monster who kept her against her will) it's also about her children and their rights to the crown. If Elia decided to divorce Rhaegar that would disinherit Aegon and take him out of the royal line of succession making Lyanna and Rhaegar's child(Jon) Rhaegars one and only heir. But if she agrees to a poly marriage that keeps her children in the royal line of sucession, and keeps Aegon as Rhaegar's true heir. Elia and Dorne for that matter aren't dumb enough to take Elia's children out of the royal line of succession and I don't think Rhaegar is for that matter either. As he said himself, "The dragon needs three heads".

[Sasha Steelsong]

I doubt Elia and Dorne for that matter would rather settle for a divorce than a poly marriage. This isn't just about Elia and her supposed "freedom"(as if Rhaegar was some monster who kept her against her will) it's also about her children and their rights to the crown. If Elia decided to divorce Rhaegar that would disinherit Aegon and take him out of the royal line of succession making Lyanna and Rhaegar's child(Jon) Rhaegars one and only heir. But if she agrees to a poly marriage that keeps her children in the royal line of sucession, and keeps Aegon as Rhaegar's true heir. Elia and Dorne for that matter aren't dumb enough to take Elia's children out of the royal line of succession and I don't think Rhaegar is for that matter either. As he said himself, "The dragon needs three heads".

This. All I keep thinking about is the real life example of Anne Boleyn and Elizabeth I - Anne was offered annullment in exchage for her life but the other side of that coin was the it would have made Elizabeth a bastard. As a result Anne refused and thus Elizabeth kept her place in the line of succession - and when she did take the throne ruled for decades. None of which would have been possible if her mother had allowed herself to be set aside instead of executed.

[Greymoon]

I doubt Elia and Dorne for that matter would rather settle for a divorce than a poly marriage. This isn't just about Elia and her supposed "freedom"(as if Rhaegar was some monster who kept her against her will) it's also about her children and their rights to the crown. If Elia decided to divorce Rhaegar that would disinherit Aegon and take him out of the royal line of succession making Lyanna and Rhaegar's child(Jon) Rhaegars one and only heir. But if she agrees to a poly marriage that keeps her children in the royal line of sucession, and keeps Aegon as Rhaegar's true heir. Elia and Dorne for that matter aren't dumb enough to take Elia's children out of the royal line of succession and I don't think Rhaegar is for that matter either. As he said himself, "The dragon needs three heads".

But for the children, we don't know, do we? In many instances of divorce (though not admittedly in western europe, today) the children would legally belong to their father. Their mother would have no rights over them. So... are we sure Aegon would have been disinherited? It raises the question, naturally of why Ellia would agree to abandon her children. Well she knew Rhaegar and the kind of man he was. A promise on his honor could have been good enough for her.

Edit:

When I speak of freedom, I'm not trying to paint Rhaegar as a monster. Elia is ill and bed ridden most days, and locked in a loveless marriage, with no possibility to ever have a paramour out in the open. At court such behavior would not have been tolerated from her. Is it a strech to think she'd have loved to return to Dorne?

[Techelles]

Whoa, this thread is outpacing me. Greymoon and Ser Cleighton, some other people have already responded to a lot of the things that came up in our discussion, so I'll try not to be too redundant. I'll try for some fuller responses later when I have a little more time, but for now, I'll just address a couple little things.

Okay first off lets get the distance right. Here is map with edge distance markers.

http://awoiaf.wester...of_westeros.jpg

From the wall to the very south of Dorn is 33 markers or close enough. From the wall to the very south of Dorne is 3000 miles. From the tower of Joy to Starfall it is roughly for distance markers. So 3000/8.25 is about 360 miles as the crow flies.

I confess, your map is much better than the one I linked. You're right, according to that map, it's about 360 miles. As I did say earlier, though, I don't think this distance has any real bearing on the legitimacy of any of these theories we're throwing around. We know that people were making the journey.

My mistake was conflating the actual size of Westeros with the way it's portrayed in the show. In the show, they say it took Robert a month to get from KL to Winterfell, but your map says that the journey would be about ~1,700 miles. Even on horseback at a good pace, a month is impossibly fast for that distance. It took me just over a month to walk about 500 miles at approximately 15-20 miles per day. And a huge party like Robert's, especially with Cersei's royal carriage, probably wasn't going too much faster.

So yeah, I was getting my idea of the scale of Westeros from that line on the show and my own personal experience. No good.

Incidentally, I also found an interesting thread about some problems other people have had with the size of Westeros:

http://asoiaf.wester...-book-westeros/

As has been pointed out before, in order for Wylla to be a wet-nurse she would have had to have a babe on the breast of her own. Or, the babe died soon before she became Jon's wet nurse. Lactation, as has been discussed wouldn't last more than a few weeks (at the most) if there was no child. So Wylla being a handmaiden to Lyanna, well before Jon's birth, would imply she was brought to Lyanna with babe. It doesn't seem very practical to bring another woman and young child into the picture.

Not necessarily. Wylla didn't need to have any children of her own to be a wet nurse. The wikipedia article for Wet Nurse, which I definitely did not edit to suit my own purposes (I mean it), says:

A woman can only act as a wet-nurse if she is lactating. It was once believed that a wet-nurse must have recently undergone childbirth. This is not necessarily true, as regular breast suckling can elicit lactation via a neural reflex of prolactin production and secretion.

So although Wylla was initially brought in as a handmaiden to wait on Lyanna, circumstances (Lyanna's death during childbirth, i.e., "bed of blood") forced her to take on the role of wet nurse as well, at least until they got back to Starfall.

I imagine that Ned hired some other woman from Starfall to act as wet nurse on journey back north. Wylla, considering where she came from and what she knew, was best left to her own life in Starfall. And Ned certainly couldn't have taken the woman he claimed was the mother back to Winterfell to meet Cat. Nor would he want her questioned by his own men.

So the guess here is that Wylla traveled up north with Ned and that she was brought to Lyanna either in the last days of her pregnancy, or right after Lyanna died.

First, I really don't think that Rhaegar or the kingsguard would have planned on delivering a baby themselves. It just makes sense that they would have brought a woman in long before the birth.

Went north with Ned when? Just before Ned went to the ToJ? Wouldn't that arouse suspicion? Wouldn't people be asking themselves why Ned took Wylla with him just to ride up to the ToJ and back? Also, if she went north with Ned then, she wouldn't have been able to return to Starfall for nine months if she was going to pass Jon off as her own. Ned didn't stick around at the ToJ for nine months; we know he took Dawn back to Starfall afterwards. Then he went home. So this idea would require that Ned stashed Wylla away somewhere after the ToJ while he himself went back to Starfall, telling her that after nine months had passed, she could go home. But when she did go home, she wouldn't have had a baby. She'd just have had to tell people that she and Ned had a bastard together but that Ned took it north. Wouldn't people have asked her where she'd been all that time? She couldn't very well say that she'd been up north with him in Winterfell, because hundreds of people could have contradicted that story. So the theory just seems overly complicated and unrealistic, and it certainly doesn't offer a good set-up for the agreed-upon lie of N+W=J.

But if Wylla was summoned to the tower by Rhaegar or the kingsguard before Lyanna ever became pregnant, it explains not only how Wylla was able to easily and unsuspiciously assume the role of Jon's mother, but also how the lie that N+W=J was given credence in the first place, because if Ned brought Wylla back to Starfall with him after the ToJ, then everyone there would have seen Ned, Wylla, and the baby together. This is a much stronger foundation for the deception than the word of a woman who shows up at Starfall months later without a baby.

[SFDanny]

Marwyn?

I don't think so, but we sure don't have any clues.

YES! slowly the grand Marwyn conspiracy theory gains followers! :drunk:

Seriously, I've often argued that it makes sense for a maester to have been there, and Marwyn not only fits the bill as a chained and trained grad of the Citadel, but he has other things about him that suggest he would make sense as a prime candidate if a maester was present at the tower. He shares with Rhaegar an interest in prophecy, and might be one of the experts in the field. It is hard to think Rhaegar and he had no contact with each other just on this score. Secondly, I've always wanted to know just when Marwyn took his extended trip abroad? Could it have been just after the events at the tower of joy? If I was Ned Stark, and I wanted to hide anyone who witnessed the events there from Varys, Tywin, et al. I would take him to Starfall and put him on the first boat for parts far removed from Westeros. Of course Tywin would have just slit his throat, but I choose to believe Ned would take a different path. Anyway, as Mountain Lion says, there just aren't any clues to construct a really solid theory on, but I maintain my hopes. Who knows what evil happened at the Tower of Joy? Marwyn does!

Maybe, just maybe.

[SFDanny]

There is the statement that Rhaegar always travels in the company of the Kingsguard, except while he is at Summerhall. Hightower was sent by Aerys to find Rhaegar, one of the three must have accompanied Rhaegar back to King's Landing, and Rhaegar must have immediately sent him back. Just the most reasonable scenario is that it was Hightower, since he could report to Aerys.

And I've argued as much in the past, but the app suggests otherwise and that both of us are wrong. Perhaps another of the Kingsguard accompanied Hightower south or this time Rhaegar broke the custom and travelled without Kingsguard escort (Hightower could have brought other forces with him who travel back with the prince.) Anyway, the app is clear Rhaegar orders Hightower, Dayne, and Whent to stay at the tower. I know not everyone accepts evidence from the app, but for whatever it is worth, it is clear what it says on this subject.

[corbon]

There is the statement that Rhaegar always travels in the company of the Kingsguard, except while he is at Summerhall. Hightower was sent by Aerys to find Rhaegar, one of the three must have accompanied Rhaegar back to King's Landing, and Rhaegar must have immediately sent him back. Just the most reasonable scenario is that it was Hightower, since he could report to Aerys.

No, there is no evidence about her whereabouts between Harrenhal and the tower. It does seem reasonable that everyone in the Stark family, except perhaps Ned, wintered at Winterfell. We do have a conversation between Lyanna and Ned with regards to Robert's betrothal, and we still don't have any solid information about when the betrothal was made. When the betrothals are announced we have Littlefinger challenging Brandon to a duel, and it works best if it is at the end of the winter. You can have before, if you like, but that messes with Littlefinger being in a position to observe Lyanna meeting up with Rhaegar and send a false message to Brandon.

That conversation may well have happened well before Harrenhal, or around that time, not necessarily after. We know Mya Stone has already been born and she is borne in the same year as the tourney (don;t we think it is late in the year?).

I don't understand why you are connecting the betrothal of Robert and Lyanna to the betrothal of Brandon and Catelyn or assuming that Littlefinger challenged imediately. We know Catelyn's betrothal to Brandon happened when she was 12, about 5 years before Harrenhal. I think you are running a whole bunch of confused things together here?

I still don't see any evidence sending any of the Starks back to WInterfell. Its a long way, and they have several long-term things to do in the south. Brandon has a marriage to prepare fir, and is known to be in the south around a year after Harennhal. Ned goes to the vale, not Winterfell. Lyanna needs to get to know southern customs and build relationships she will later need. I'd also think Lyanna and Rhaegar must have a chance to spend some time together, publically or privately, who knows. I don't think they spent a lot of time together at Harrenhal (or any before that) and at that time Rhaegar was still working on his 3 dragons happily with Elia. I think Lyanna stayed south, which makes sense socially and logistically, and hence had some opportunities for Rhaegar to send at least some time with her. She probably even went to court at some stage - why wouldn't she? - and visisted some of the Stormlands too.

I'm not saying she must have, just that AFAICS there is zero evidence she went north again and a lot of reasons she might have stayed south.

It also makes Brandon going off half-cocked slightly more believeable. If they kids mostly stayed south, he'd be the senior one and partially 'responsible' for her behavior, so her running off with Rhaegar strikes at him personally, not just family honour.

[Jon Icefyre]

But for the children, we don't know, do we? In many instances of divorce (though not admittedly in western europe, today) the children would legally belong to their father. Their mother would have no rights over them. So... are we sure Aegon would have been disinherited? It raises the question, naturally of why Ellia would agree to abandon her children. Well she knew Rhaegar and the kind of man he was. A promise on his honor could have been good enough for her.

Edit:

When I speak of freedom, I'm not trying to paint Rhaegar as a monster. Elia is ill and bed ridden most days, and locked in a loveless marriage, with no possibility to ever have a paramour out in the open. At court such behavior would not have been tolerated from her. Is it a strech to think she'd have loved to return to Dorne?

Im pretty sure in Westeros they don't do divorce they only do annulments (think Tyrion and Tysha) and in the case of annulments the children do not inherit anything especially if the King has a son with another wife. Plus I doubt Elia would want to be away from her children anyway.

[corbon]

Perhaps another of the Kingsguard accompanied Hightower south or this time Rhaegar broke the custom and travelled without Kingsguard escort (Hightower could have brought other forces with him who travel back with the prince.)

This.

And of course, Rhaegar is not actually the king, so if he tells them to stay, they aren't breaking any vows, unless Aerys specifically told Hightower to return with Rhaegar.

In fact, the fact that he doesn't take KG to Summerhall proves this is possible.

Anyway, the app is clear Rhaegar orders Hightower, Dayne, and Whent to stay at the tower. I know not everyone accepts evidence from the app, but for whatever it is worth, it is clear what it says on this subject.

I don't believe the app is anything more than the collected wisdom of several very smart people, vetted by GRRM for major errors. Anything minor like this could easily get through, and anything that is 'just the story as we know it so far (such as Ashara Dayne's suicide for example, which we are told happened) could easily be 'wrong', deliberately wrong.

[Greymoon]

Not necessarily. Wylla didn't need to have any children of her own to be a wet nurse. The wikipedia article for Wet Nurse, which I definitely did not edit to suit my own purposes (I mean it), says:

So although Wylla was initially brought in as a handmaiden to wait on Lyanna, circumstances (Lyanna's death during childbirth, i.e., "bed of blood") forced her to take on the role of wet nurse as well, at least until they got back to Starfall.

I imagine that he hired some other woman from Starfall to act as wet nurse on journey back north. Wylla, considering where she came from and what she knew, was best left to her own life in Starfall. And Ned certainly couldn't have taken the woman he claimed was the mother back to Winterfell to meet Cat. Nor would he want her questioned by his own men.

Went north with Ned when? Just before Ned went to the ToJ? Wouldn't that arouse suspicion? Wouldn't people be asking themselves why Ned took Wylla with him just to ride up to the ToJ and back? Also, if she went north with Ned then, she wouldn't have been able to return to Starfall for nine months if she was going to pass Jon off as her own. Ned didn't stick around at the ToJ for nine months; we know he took Dawn back to Starfall afterwards.

You didn't read my post very carefully. I dare say I mentionned Wylla could have been a professional wetnurse.

The point was rather, that Ned traveled to Starfall before Lyanna gave birth. That's based on the assumption that we can't trust his dream. So, Ned fights against the Kingsguard, finds his sister heavily pregnant. Then he travels to Starfall and leaves Lyanna with Reed, whilst he brings back Arthur's sword and looks for a midwife or wetnurse. He finds a woman able to pass as Jon's mother. She could have been a wetnurse possibly, but also possibly a woman, who gave birth shortly before and whose own child died (which is the reason she could claim Jon at all) He brings that woman to Lyanna, Lyanna gives birth, and the same woman travels up north with Ned. Somewhere along the way, he finds another wetnurse and sends Wylla back to starfall. The rumor mill is already going. That was the argument.

[Techelles]

It also makes Brandon going off half-cocked slightly more believeable. If they kids mostly stayed south, he'd be the senior one and partially 'responsible' for her behavior, so her running off with Rhaegar strikes at him personally, not just family honour.

I like this. It would indeed help explain Brandon's behavior a little more. Not that I think further explanation is definitely necessary, but you and I have been through all that before. :box: Still, any additional supporting details are welcome. I don't know why, but it never really occurred to me before that Lyanna and Brandon might have been staying in the same place, and that when Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to marry Cat (which is when he heard about the abduction), he had just left Lyanna.

On the other hand, that makes me ask why Lyanna wouldn't have been going with him.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

YES! slowly the grand Marwyn conspiracy theory gains followers! :drunk:

Yes! And in addition to a maester, there would have been other servants, stable boys, etc: the "invisible" serving class. Also possibly a Septon who performed the marriage (the weirwood tree theory, while it works for Lyanna just does not seem right for a Targ) So in addition to Marwyn (or other maesters) look closely at the random Septons. Like Celladar at the Wall.

As an earlier post noted, (paraphrasing here) after Lyanna died "they found him" which means HR + other(s)

[Techelles]

You didn't read my post very carefully. I dare say I mentionned Wylla could have been a professional wetnurse.

I saw that. I still thought clarity was needed. And I was responding to the bit before that.

The point was rather, that Ned traveled to Starfall before Lyanna gave birth. That's based on the assumption that we can't trust his dream. So, Ned fights against the Kingsguard, finds his sister heavily pregnant. Then he travels to Starfall and leaves Lyanna with Reed, whilst he brings back Arthur's sword and looks for a midwife or wetnurse. He finds a woman able to pass as Jon's mother. She could have been a wetnurse possibly, but also possibly a woman, who gave birth shortly before and whose own child died (which is the reason she could claim Jon at all) He brings that woman to Lyanna, Lyanna gives birth, and the same woman travels up north with Ned. Somewhere along the way, he finds another wetnurse and sends Wylla back to starfall. The rumor mill is already going. That was the argument.

This scenario fails to address many of my points. It still makes Wylla's timeline very awkward. It still wouldn't have taken Wylla away from Starfall for nine months. It still would have allowed a whole lot of interaction between Wylla and Ned's men. It still means that the case for Wylla's parenthood in Starfall rests entirely on the word of some lowborn woman with no baby claiming, "Ooh, a had a high Lord's bastard!" And it still ignores the near certainty that Rhaegar or the kingsguard would have procured a midwife/wet nurse for the pregnant woman in their custody long before the baby's birth.