Do you want Aegon to be a fake?

[Mother of Mountains]

True enough, back to the drawing board then...

[Aelos]

Even though I want the Targaryens back on the throne, perhaps I prefer Mad Daenerys because we know so much more about her and I certainly wouldn't mind reading the interesting chapters wherein the fakeness of his claim is revealed.

Not an easy decision, but Yes. His story makes you think about the 'two dogs who fight over a bone and the third takes it' but it would be a slight anti-climax he's the real deal and wins in the end.

[bent branch]

Well, remember that GRRM decided to abolish the 5-year gap. He must have had his reasons...

As a major proponent of the Aegon Blackfyre-Mopatis theory, I'd love to know your problems with the timeline of I+S=A?

Okay, I'll try to explain. Looking first at Aegon's age, we know that Jon Connington was given a 5 year old child to raise. We can assume that the child was indeed five or very close to that, because it would be hard to get a 4 year old or 6 year old to reliably lie about how old they are. Aegon has been with JC for 12 years, so Aegon has just turned 17 or is just about to turn 18. This would mean that Aegon was conceived ~18 to 19 years ago.

Next, we need to look at what Illyrio tells us about when his and Varys' partnership ended:

"...I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch's talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud. I do believe you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?"

We also need to look at what Illyrio tells us about how he met Serra:

"A maiden? I know the way of that." Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. "Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The Palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra."

So now I can get into what my problems with the time frame I+S=A. Knowing that Illyrio married his Pentoshi princess about the same time that Varys went to KL, we know that Varys was in KL at least 19 years ago, because he advised Aerys that he should go to the Harrenhall tournament. But we also know that Varys had been around KL for some time before that, because people thought Varys was messing with Aerys' mind. So let's say he arrived in KL at least 20 years ago. We also know that Aerys began his mental decline after the incident at Duskendale. We know that he didn't send for Varys immediately after Duskendale (the app says it was years after Duskendale that he sent for Varys), to give as much time as possible in this time frame lets say he sent for Varys two years after Duskendale. That would mean that Varys could have arrived as early as 22 years ago in KL. So Illyrio married his Pentoshi princess ~20 to 22 years ago.

It is apparent from Illyrio's story that his first wife was dead when Serra came into his life. So with Aegon's conception occurring ~18 to 19 years ago and Illyrio marrying his first wife ~20 to 22 years ago, there is a minimum of one year to a maximum of 4 years for this sequence of events to occur - Illyrio marries first wife, she dies, he finds Serra in Lys, and then he fathers Aegon (they needn't have even reached the second marriage part). While I realize there is room in there for Illyrio's first marriage to have occurred I find it a bit odd that a young woman would have died so quickly (short of in childbirth) without her family being suspicious of her death. However, Illyrio implies that the only problem they had with her death was that Illyrio replaced her with a prostitute. So all in all, I think Serra being Aegon's mother is a very tight squeeze. Too tight for me to find the prospect believable.

[The guy from the Vale]

OK. I agree the timeline is pretty packed in these few years, to an extent that it probably has to be explained at some point, but I don't see how the timeline rules the theory out. It's certainly enough time, although there isn't much spare.

There's also the point that Tyrion (admittedly, a bad judge of age), estimated fAegon to be about a year or two younger than he appears. Connect this with Connington, who doesn't seem to have much experience with children except fAegon, and we can perhaps grant Illyrio another year for the plan to work out.

As for finding Serra, that might be relatively easy if she's Varys' sister.

[Varys BrightBlackflayrme]

I want Faegon to be fake, he has to be, otherwise the Blackfyre back story is a complete waste of time.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Then why would Aegon have platinum blonde hair?

I think I answered that- I said Ashara's baby "had her violet eyes and the ash blond hair of her house" The male Daynes we know of - Arthur and Edric- both have very light hair, described as ash blond. Even Darkstar of the cadet branch of House Dayne has it. Ash is very close to platinum. I don't remember that Aegon's hair is ever specifically identified as platinum in the text. I'm sure I'll be roundly corrected if I'm wrong ;)

[bent branch]

OK. I agree the timeline is pretty packed in these few years, to an extent that it probably has to be explained at some point, but I don't see how the timeline rules the theory out. It's certainly enough time, although there isn't much spare.

There's also the point that Tyrion (admittedly, a bad judge of age), estimated fAegon to be about a year or two younger than he appears. Connect this with Connington, who doesn't seem to have much experience with children except fAegon, and we can perhaps grant Illyrio another year for the plan to work out.

As for finding Serra, that might be relatively easy if she's Varys' sister.

Don't get me wrong. I do see that it is possible for I+S=A to have occurred in the time given. I'm simply saying that I find it so unlikely that I really won't believe it until GRRM actually confirms it.

[The guy from the Vale]

Don't get me wrong either, that's totally fine for me. It's just that I like being challenged on my ideas :) You won't learn anything new if you aren't.

[The Dragon King]

He seems to be one of the most widely disliked characters in the series (a sentiment I don't agree with. I actually really like him), and one of the primary reasons seems to be "because he's fake". Now do you personally want him to be fake, or would you rather him be exactly who he says he is, Aegon Targaryn? Do you think part of the reason people get so riled up about him is because if he is Rhaegar's son, that negates the theory of Jon's parentage a bit?

So basically, if it were up to you and you were penning the script, would you want Aegon to be fake, or real?

I want Aegon to be Rhaegar & Lyanna's son, the "explanation" for him is just too unrealistic. I'm not who Jon Snow would be in that case, maybe Brandon & Ashara Dayne?

[Waylin Stark]

I want him to be the real thing. He seems best suited for a king.

[Leviathan I]

I don't know, I just don't want Dorne to get fucked over.

[Ygrain]

I want Aegon to be Rhaegar & Lyanna's son, the "explanation" for him is just too unrealistic. I'm not who Jon Snow would be in that case, maybe Brandon & Ashara Dayne?

Given the length of human pregnancy, Brandon is safely out (Jon was born within a month since the Sack, the Rebellion lasted for about a year)

[Duckfield]

So basically most people want him to be fake because he just "popped out of nowhere". Thats sad. I personally don't have anything against him and I think he and Jon connington make the story even more interesting.

I don't mind if he is a targ or a blackfyre because both options are awesome and I'm sure grrm will make his story just as great as any other major character.

I also think that if he is the true Aegon he will die doing something heroic. I don't know.. It's just a feeling.

You people should stop hating characters for nothing, they might be part of a very pleasant and surprising read. And if you don't like it, well, that can happen even in great stories. Deal with it.

[Tommen]

Yeah, his introduction and role in the story is pretty hokey if he's real. "Oh hi guys, I've been hiding out for the previous 5000 pages, but I have the best claim to the Iron Throne and I'm like super educated and good looking and have an awesome personality and stuff.

Oh, my Aunt...the other Targaryen exile supposedly being helped by Illyrio and Varys? Pshh. I managed to gather an army and invade Westeros in half a book. What's she ever done?"

I think this is why he'll lose. Dany stayed out of Westeros to build her power base because she has no Westerosi allies (that she knows of). Aegon is hastily taking the Stormlands with a sellsword company and what progress he has made is at huge risk if Arianne doesn't believe that he's really her cousin. Which is a shame, because I think Aegon is one of the most well-meaning contenders for the throne. I've supported Dany from day one but I think it'd be so much more interesting for her to deal with competition from an actual Targaryen, given that she's spent years believing that she is the last and rightful heir to their legacy. If Aegon turned out to be a Blackfyre, it'd make supporting Dany much less complicated and he'd just be an obstacle to overcome rather than an ethical challenge.

[Arrein The Only]

I want Aegon to be real for a few different reasons. First, Rhaegar was a badass, and I want to see some of that in action even if it is through a son he never really knew. Second, I think Varys has been setting this thing up since the time of Aerys and I really want this to be a sort of cleansing of Westeros that leads to a long lasting peace. Third, in direct contradiction to my second point, I do not think he will sit the Iron Throne. At this point in the Game does anyone honestly think that someone's "claim" makes a lick of difference? The IT will be won by conquest at this point. No one is going to step asised and say "Well, pardon me, you DO have a rightful claim, here's your chair". Lastly, I want him to be real for spite. Too many people hate this guy way too much for little or no reason and I'd like to see them proven wrong. He doesn't detract at all from Dany, she has F'ing dragons (and like I said, claims don't matter). He was brought in late in the story, but who wants to read four books of him sailing down a river and learning how to be king? He was brought in late because his story was borring until he met Tyrion. He is not half and entitled as Vyserys, nor half as whiny, nor half as much of a douche, and there is plenty of sympathy for Vyserys around here. He's been raised to be a king regardless of who he actually is, he is the ONLY contender for the throne that has taken the sound advice of a proven leader to better their situation, and he has proven to be a capible and compitant leader.

I agree with this. I want Aegon to be real, Dany has been annoying me latley.

[Lady Winter Rose]

Okay, I'll try to explain. Looking first at Aegon's age, we know that Jon Connington was given a 5 year old child to raise. We can assume that the child was indeed five or very close to that, because it would be hard to get a 4 year old or 6 year old to reliably lie about how old they are. Aegon has been with JC for 12 years, so Aegon has just turned 17 or is just about to turn 18. This would mean that Aegon was conceived ~18 to 19 years ago.

Couple corrections, if they are.

Aegon doesn't need to know who his real parents are. He might been raised with belief that big, smiling man who humore him is just a "uncle Illyrio".

Second, why five years old could reliable lie, but four years old and six years old can't. Isn't that contradictory?

[bent branch]

Couple corrections, if they are.

Aegon doesn't need to know who his real parents are. He might been raised with belief that big, smiling man who humore him is just a "uncle Illyrio".

Second, why five years old could reliable lie, but four years old and six years old can't. Isn't that contradictory?

I agree that Aegon doesn't need to know who his real parents are. This is more about sperm meets egg than it is about Aegon knowing who his real parents are.

Agreed that a five year old is no better liar than a four or six year old. However, if a five year old is asked his age he doesn't need to lie. Having said that, I do think the child's perception of how old he is could have been manipulated so that he thinks he's five. As long as the child is not born near a major holiday that they associate with their birthday (like both of mine were), the celebration of the child's birthday could be delayed or accelerated to make the child think they are slightly younger or older than they are. But I think you can only get about six months either way. This would help with the four year old. As to the six year old, well, the I+S=A theory needs more time rather than less.

[RhaenysBee]

He seems to be one of the most widely disliked characters in the series (a sentiment I don't agree with. I actually really like him), and one of the primary reasons seems to be "because he's fake". Now do you personally want him to be fake, or would you rather him be exactly who he says he is, Aegon Targaryn? Do you think part of the reason people get so riled up about him is because if he is Rhaegar's son, that negates the theory of Jon's parentage a bit?

So basically, if it were up to you and you were penning the script, would you want Aegon to be fake, or real?

If I consider the quality of the story, then yes, I want him to be fake. If I consider my Targaryen fangirl-pulp fiction-happy end-lover preferences then no, please Rhaegar needs a proper heir, not Jon Snow.

[Light a wight tonight]

Man, because likeable characters are impervious to death while hated characters remain hated and die shortly after introduction. This dislike makes NO sense and the poor reasoning could be applied to so many characters...

????? Plenty of examples of the opposite. Among them are:

Boltons, still alive. Likewise Littlefinger, Cersei, Gregor (sorta), Walder Frey and a ton of his offspring.

Ned and Robb Stark dead. Also Jeor Mormont, Maester Aemon, Joren of the Watch.

[Baelor Swyft]

FWIW (if it's worth anything at all), I don't dislike Aegon because he popped out of nowhere or because he might be fake. I dislike him because IMHO he's just a bland character thus far, and a bit of a brat -- just a little bit, but in a series of so many awesome characters, that little bit is enough to tip the scales against him.

Think of someone like Alys Karstark, The Queen of Thorns, The Knight of Seashells, Mya Stone, Tormund Giantsbane, there's two dozen characters with very little prominence but a lot of love from fans. These characters instantly jump out to many people as being interesting, or likable, or cool, or something positive. Aegon's had about the same amount of time and he just really hasn't won people over. Perhaps he will in the near future, once he starts leading the battles. Or if JonCon's army does something good for a cause that a lot of people favor, like how Stannis won favor at The Wall... but it doesn't seem likely since he's poised to take Storm's End from Stannis.

I do think it'd be cooler if he's legitimate. I mean, the son of Elia and Rhaegar? Unless Rhaegar mated with Oberyn (and one of them had a secret vagina), there aren't a lot of pairs who could produce a son I'd be more interested in seeing rise to prominence.