Why do some people think Aegon is fake, v.3

[Gala]

see i think the exact opposite. Tywin tries to marry Cersei to Rhaegar at a tourney honoring the king then gets refused by Aerys in the most disrespectful way possible. Several months later Duskendale happens. So I don't believe that Varys arriving shortly after (feud between tywin/aerys & events of duskendale) is a coincidence. After Varys becomes M of W Aerys doesn't leave the Red Keep for like 5 or 6 years until ToH, so yea he was def going paranoid/crazy due to Varys influence. Selmy prolly tells it true when he says that Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar planned to remove his father from power ( if varys was on rhaegars side why do this? its def gonna cause problems & innocent people will pay price with their lives).

So ToH happens then Roberts Reb. the lanniters wait until the end taking all the spoils of war & tywin makes cersei queen thus putting future lions on Iron Throne. original intent of C+R

Rhaegar & the Starks,Arryns,Tullys & Baratheons were the least of Aerys worries. the lion (jamie/tywin) was the true threat. yes varys tells aerys NOT to open gate but at that point he knew Aerys desperately wants to trust tywin as his last hope so his warning will go ignored. he did this to save face & say "yall saw me tell him that wasnt a good idea." also if Varys was doing his job why did Aerys have jamie by his side during his final hours...

He pretty much explicitly told Jaime he was going remove Aerys from power after his victory on the Trident and he skillfully maneuvered all the Kingsguard but Jaime away from Aerys side in order to make this easier.

No you see Aerys sent specifically for Varys because of what happened at Duskendale. Aerys had just been betrayed, kidnapped and held in a dungeon by one of his vassal Lords and Tywin appeared to do nothing. Varys wasn't even in Westeros when that happened and something like that is bound to make anyone wonder about the loyalty of their other subjects hence the hiring of the Varys.

Rickard's Grand Alliance did exist, Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys and Tywin wasn't making any secret of his resentment of Aerys. All of those threats were very real and it was exactly what Varys was hired to do to tell Aerys about them. People like Barristan might say that Varys fuelled the paranoia, but people like Barristan make no secret of their disdain for Varys' very existence and so are speaking with a great degree of bias.

All Varys did was inform Aerys about valid plots against him and Aerys got paranoid because there were just so dammed many of them. And why wouldn't Varys side with Aerys over Rhaegar, Varys was only in King's Landing and wielding the power he had by Aerys orders, everyone else would have gotten rid of him straight away.

Can I intervene? Why can't you both be right? At least partially? I'm more with theREALjonsnow, but I also can't see any connection of Tywin and Varys. On the other hand, I'm interested to know who Aerys knew about Varys's existence in the first place. Can somebody help me on this one, if that was in the books, I've probably missed it or just forgot.

I also agree with Toccs, but I have some doubts: there are hints on "Rickard's Grand Alliance did exist, Rhaegar was plotting to remove Aerys and Tywin wasn't making any secret of his resentment of Aerys", but if you analyze the events, those things do not make a lot of sense.

I will try to explain what I think: Rickard and Alliance are plotting, but make a lot of stupid acts and got killed, I mean their actions are incredibly strange, if they are plotting against the king, they put themselves in danger deliberately and naively thought they could get away from it. I mean, those were not actions of people really making a Grand Plot against power, at least it seems that for me.

Real reference to Rhaegar's "plotting" was mentioned once, in Jaime's thoughts and, as somebody has already said, it was almost at the end of the war, so probably he really realised that his father is nuts and decided to throw him off the throne only then, we actually do not know. We have a lot of rumors said in the books and that reference from Jaime's POV (at least I do not remember the straight reference to Rhaegar's own words on this matter).

Thing with Tywin is also strange: he supposed to not making secret of his resentment towards Aerys, but the last one opens the gates, despite the whispers of his "loyal" Spider. Probably, he was thinking that having Jaime near was his shield against Tywin, but for such incredibly paranoid person that was strange, once again at least for me. May be that was his madness working, but in what convenient time and way.

My point is, it seems that really pulling the strings was somebody else, somebody else was behind all of that. That war was 100 % beneficial only for Baratheons (if not considering Robert-Lyanna thing) and Lannisters, as well as Varys and Picel were left in the court. The others lost too much: Targs, Martels and Starks, not mentioning the common folk, innocent people.

[Gala]

not to mention it could alos mean someone pretending to be a dragon(quentyn in a way) or even a dragon pretening to be someone else (jon snow)

or that Aegon ist the mummer's dragon but the sun's son (his mother is elia martell)

Aegon could be the son's son, but he is not for one reason: he didn't come to Dany, but the son's son did, as well as lion. mummer's dragon was from another prophecy and it, as you said, actually can mean a lot of things. I can't help myself, but I don't actually just like the idea of him being real Targ, I do not have any prove and I do not argue about anything here, that's just my vision and my wish, but thus far the evidence are not specific, so he could appear to be either, real or fake.

[Kasporio]

When Kevan thinks about the murders of Rhaegar children he remembers Aegon skull wash smashed beyond recognition but he saw blond hair (fair he said). But Elia was dark haired and most half targaryens inherit the hair colour of their non targaryen parents (albeit isn't a clear rule).

Because dark is a dominant gene.

So it would mean the corpse was a fake aegon. But aegon the sixth have targaryen features which is unlikely he would be the son of rahegar and elia.

About Varys who caused Aerys paranoia, there's no clue, he maybe worsened it, to retain control over the mad king, but aerys was clearly mad and sadistic even without Varys reports. See Cersei, she still paranoid without Varys or tyrion around, which cause her to turn on everybody. Well Varys and the tyrells have some part anyway, but she was already mad and stupid long before.

The real question is : what is varys true motives ?

He's manipulative, but i think what he said to Ned was true, he serves the kingdom, or the idea he has of it. When he told his story to Tyrion, it was clear he despises blood magic. Maybe he's trying to unite the 7 kingdoms into a state, not a collection of feudal kingdoms.

Well, anyways, i lack the imagination needed to foretell what is varys true goal. He maybe a faceless man, as they seem to have their own agenda.

[VaramyrSixchins]

im sure this has been convered before ad nauseam but why does "Mummer's Dragon" imply hes fake? Perhaps its too superficial a reading but I always just to it to mean it was simply just "Mummer's" as in possessive, Dragon belonging to a mummer, which we all know Varys has some training as. Now it could be a double entendre implying that he infact a fake targaryen, but I personally didn't get that. I wonder if peoples perception of Aegon is tainted because of his late entrance, supposed significance, and perceived undercutting of Dany's plot arc rather than some large/convincing body of evidence in the text that actual calls his identity into question. On the t]other hand perhaps Occam's razor has no place in analysis of Martin's writing, but regardless why the extra assumption that Mummer's Dragon is a double entendre?

For me, it's the fact that the exact same terminology is used during the HotU "slayer of lies" visions. Dany tells Jorah that the cloth dragon is used in shows, entertainment, follies. For Quaithe to use very similar terminology is a strong argument, at least for me.

Even if you don't connect the two and view "mummer's" as a reference to Varys in the possessive form, why would Quaithe use that particular word, since there are so many descriptors for him? Why not Spider's dragon, theif's dragon, eunich's dragon, whisperer's dragon, etc? It's not as if the Varys-Aegon connection is a secret to the reader. Any number of adjectives could've been used to confirm this connection, instead, mummer's is used, a word that has specific connotations and has been used before in connection to falsehood. Not only falsehood in general, but specifically false dragons. What else would be the purpose of using that specific word if not to imply fakery?

[Mulled Wino]

For me, it's the fact that the exact same terminology is used during the HotU "slayer of lies" visions. Dany tells Jorah that the cloth dragon is used in shows, entertainment, follies. For Quaithe to use very similar terminology is a strong argument, at least for me.

Even if you don't connect the two and view "mummer's" as a reference to Varys in the possessive form, why would Quaithe use that particular word, since there are so many descriptors for him? Why not Spider's dragon, theif's dragon, eunich's dragon, whisperer's dragon, etc? It's not as if the Varys-Aegon connection is a secret to the reader. Any number of adjectives could've been used to confirm this connection, instead, mummer's is used, a word that has specific connotations and has been used before in connection to falsehood. Not only falsehood in general, but specifically false dragons. What else would be the purpose of using that specific word if not to imply fakery?

Finally you make some sense brother! lol

I"m all for consistency as well, this meaning here, that meaning there. I just don't buy it.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Aegon could be the son's son, but he is not for one reason: he didn't come to Dany, but the son's son did, as well as lion. mummer's dragon was from another prophecy and it, as you said, actually can mean a lot of things. I can't help myself, but I don't actually just like the idea of him being real Targ, I do not have any prove and I do not argue about anything here, that's just my vision and my wish, but thus far the evidence are not specific, so he could appear to be either, real or fake.

and neither did the griffin nor the perfumed seneshal.

and I don't think slayer of lies refers to aegon but to her own claim to the throne (she's not even heir to the iron throne)

I'm reminding Of gorghan of old ghis

prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is . . . and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time.

[Tini]

When Kevan thinks about the murders of Rhaegar children he remembers Aegon skull wash smashed beyond recognition but he saw blond hair (fair he said). But Elia was dark haired and most half targaryens inherit the hair colour of their non targaryen parents (albeit isn't a clear rule).

Because dark is a dominant gene.

So it would mean the corpse was a fake aegon. But aegon the sixth have targaryen features which is unlikely he would be the son of rahegar and elia.

No, it doesn't mean that the corpse was a fake Aegon. Elia of Dorne was dark haired but she had Targaryen ancestors (the first Daenerys). That means that she could very well carry the recessive genes for blond hair, and pass it on to her son.

And while the baby's head was smashed in and therefore unrecognizable, we can safely assume that the real Aegon had fair hair. Anyone who had ever seen baby Aegon (Barristan among them) would have known immediately that the fair-haired dead boy could not possibly be Aegon otherwise.

[Veltigar]

because he is fake.

[Anima]

I don't really bite your idea about an alliance really coming together against Aerys. It's just your attempt to imagine : What if Aerys had never been mad. That's why you're also speaking of Raeghar plotting against his father. The Starks, Arryns, Baratheons and Tullys were close families and neighbors. They had more or less the same principles of honor and duty. So what I'm saying is birds of a feather flock together, guys. The fact that they were close doesn't mean they were plotting against their king especially since as I just said they all valued honor and duty. And as I already said in my previous post Raeghar did not start thinking of maybe removing his father from the throne until the very end of the war and it is said in the book that he does so because he started to realize that his father WAS mad. He wasn't doing it for the throne but for the people and the kingdom, it was his duty as Prince to protect them afterall.

[Starkbringer]

I like to think that Aegon is fake because it adds to the intrigue of the story. If I knew for a fact that he was Rhaegar's true heir then it would totally change my perception of how the story might end. I admit that I don't know enough to declare him either way but I am a Jon Snow is Rhaegar's son enthuiast and Aegon could ruin that.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I like to think that Aegon is fake because it adds to the intrigue of the story. If I knew for a fact that he was Rhaegar's true heir then it would totally change my perception of how the story might end. I admit that I don't know enough to declare him either way but I am a Jon Snow is Rhaegar's son enthuiast and Aegon could ruin that.

Well the two story arcs are mutually exclusive. Even if Aegon turns out to be Rhaegar's first born son (which I don't think he is), it has no bearing on Jon, except that he would be Rhaegar's second born son.

Anyway, I'm all in on R + L= J. I think that is done deal. The only question is how GRRM gets us there. The evidence against Aegon on the other hand, was quite convincing in the Tyrion chapter in ADWD. I wanted him to be Rhaegar and Elia's son because of Elia. She was so mistreated and underrated by those around her, that I hoped she would get some justice by having one of her children survive. But the more I read the Tyrion chapter and the arguments against Aegon, I think its pretty clear he is not the true born son of Rhaegar and Elia.

[Tini]

Actually I hope that those story arcs will overlap if Rhaegar is Jon's father. I wonder how Aegon and Jon would feel about finding out they have a brother they didn't know about. (That does not depend on Aegon being real or fake - Aegon thinks he is Rhaegar's son.)

[Toccs]

The Starks, Arryns, Baratheons and Tullys were close families and neighbors. They had more or less the same principles of honor and duty. So what I'm saying is birds of a feather flock together, guys. The fact that they were close doesn't mean they were plotting against their king especially since as I just said they all valued honor and duty.

The Starks and Arryns were ancient enemies, the Tullys were relative upstarts and the Baratheons are not near any of them border wise. It is unusual for Lords Paramount to be uniting there families like that, the standard practice is to marry within their own bannermen within their own realm.

The Starks, Tullys, Arryns and Baratheons with the seeming encouragement of the Maesters were becoming one family, essentially uniting two thrids of the Kingdom into one power bloc. Even if they were not planning to directly act against Aerys, the very existence of such a powerful bloc was a threat to Targaryen rule.

[laughing tree knight]

I believe Aegon believes he's real. he's been trained to be a great king. but he is not Aegon. he is the son of Magester Mopatis. Why make mention of the childs clothes and room that Tyrion noticed at Ilyarrio's palace. Vary's and Illyaraio have ploted to put the right person on the throne they believe they trained and created that child. I believe keeping Dany and Visery's alive and a threat was part of the song and dance they were playing to keep suspicion off of their fake aegon untill he was ready to come of age.

[<3 JonSnow]

Ok, so this is my first time posting, so I'm sorry if there's any repeat in theory, but here's mine. I believe Aegon is the mummer's dragon (if the prophecies can be believed) and actually a Blackfyre. Reasons are as followed... When Illyrio is speaking to Tyrion before he sends him to meet up with Jon Connington and "Aegon", Tyrion says that the Golden Company never breaks it's contracts, yet they have broken it with Lys. Illyrio says (something to the effect of) sometimes blood is more important than contracts. Now, the Golden Company was founded by the exiled Bittersteel after Daemon Blackfyre rebelled against the throne. This is all speculation and was just a theory until I read the Theon sample chapter from Winds of Winter. There was a part in which Stannis was speaking to Justin Massey, and Massey says, "...to raise an army, aye. As Bittersteel did after the Battle of the Redgrass Field, where Daemon Blackfyre fell." Stannis says, "Do not prate me of history, ser. Daemon Blackfyre was a rebel and usurper, Bittersteel a bastard. When he fled, he swore he would return to place a son of Daemon's on the Iron Throne. He never did." (foreshadowing??? I think so!) So, we know that Bittersteel died before he could fulfill his vow, but who's to say that Golden Company wouldn't continue his mission, seeing as they are also mostly exiles from Westoros. To add to this, I also believe Varys is a Blackfyre (mostly because of the spelling of his name, and his overwhelming interest in what's going on with Dany) and I do not think Jon Connington knows that Young Griff is not actually Ageon. Jon was extremely loyal to Rhaegar and would not knowingly place a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This is just my theory...if you know of anything I left out or disagree with anything I said, please feel free to reply. :)

[Myk Lonmouth]

^ Word.

[DExit]

Ok, so this is my first time posting, so I'm sorry if there's any repeat in theory, but here's mine. I believe Aegon is the mummer's dragon (if the prophecies can be believed) and actually a Blackfyre. Reasons are as followed... When Illyrio is speaking to Tyrion before he sends him to meet up with Jon Connington and "Aegon", Tyrion says that the Golden Company never breaks it's contracts, yet they have broken it with Lys. Illyrio says (something to the effect of) sometimes blood is more important than contracts. Now, the Golden Company was founded by the exiled Bittersteel after Daemon Blackfyre rebelled against the throne. This is all speculation and was just a theory until I read the Theon sample chapter from Winds of Winter. There was a part in which Stannis was speaking to Justin Massey, and Massey says, "...to raise an army, aye. As Bittersteel did after the Battle of the Redgrass Field, where Daemon Blackfyre fell." Stannis says, "Do not prate me of history, ser. Daemon Blackfyre was a rebel and usurper, Bittersteel a bastard. When he fled, he swore he would return to place a son of Daemon's on the Iron Throne. He never did." (foreshadowing??? I think so!) So, we know that Bittersteel died before he could fulfill his vow, but who's to say that Golden Company wouldn't continue his mission, seeing as they are also mostly exiles from Westoros. To add to this, I also believe Varys is a Blackfyre (mostly because of the spelling of his name, and his overwhelming interest in what's going on with Dany) and I do not think Jon Connington knows that Young Griff is not actually Ageon. Jon was extremely loyal to Rhaegar and would not knowingly place a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This is just my theory...if you know of anything I left out or disagree with anything I said, please feel free to reply. :)

Like the foreshadowing part, but then, it would be hard to let Harry and the high oficers of the GC know Aegon is a Blackfyre, but not telling Jon :P Also, the captains seem most intent to fight for him being a targ, so a blackfyre isn't needed to sway the GC, they'd do it for a chance to go home.

[<3 JonSnow]

Like the foreshadowing part, but then, it would be hard to let Harry and the high oficers of the GC know Aegon is a Blackfyre, but not telling Jon :P Also, the captains seem most intent to fight for him being a targ, so a blackfyre isn't needed to sway the GC, they'd do it for a chance to go home.

Ok, what you say makes sense. Even if the GC doesn't know, there is too much reference to the Blackfyre's for it not to mean anything. The GC was founded because they were exiled by the Targs though...why would they be so enthusiastic to fight for one? Only to go home??

[Suzanna Stormborn]

When Kevan thinks about the murders of Rhaegar children he remembers Aegon skull wash smashed beyond recognition but he saw blond hair (fair he said). But Elia was dark haired and most half targaryens inherit the hair colour of their non targaryen parents (albeit isn't a clear rule).

Because dark is a dominant gene.

So it would mean the corpse was a fake aegon. But aegon the sixth have targaryen features which is unlikely he would be the son of rahegar and elia.

About Varys who caused Aerys paranoia, there's no clue, he maybe worsened it, to retain control over the mad king, but aerys was clearly mad and sadistic even without Varys reports. See Cersei, she still paranoid without Varys or tyrion around, which cause her to turn on everybody. Well Varys and the tyrells have some part anyway, but she was already mad and stupid long before.

The real question is : what is varys true motives ?

He's manipulative, but i think what he said to Ned was true, he serves the kingdom, or the idea he has of it. When he told his story to Tyrion, it was clear he despises blood magic. Maybe he's trying to unite the 7 kingdoms into a state, not a collection of feudal kingdoms.

Well, anyways, i lack the imagination needed to foretell what is varys true goal. He maybe a faceless man, as they seem to have their own agenda.

yeah but how do we know those people are who Quaithe spoke of? I mean Quentyn didn't really bring her any trouble, he dies pretty fast. Doran could be the Sun's son as his dad was also a 'Sun'. And Tyrion hasn't done anything to her (granted we don't know everything yet) but she saved his life in the pits and I don't think she has anything to fear from him. If anything I think it is Gerion lannister Dany needs to watch out for. I guarantee he is going to show up on his ship the Lauging Lion any day now into Slaver's Bay with a big part to play. He was Tywin brother for Christ sake, no way will he be easy to deal with--and I am very sure he is the 'lion' she has to watch out for.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Just pointing out something, and as my books are in Spanish and is always a bit chance something got lot in translation, but IICR, Varys was hired because Aegon was already paranoid and he found out about his own network, not the other way around.