The Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 3!

[XSarellaX]

I'm way too late to contribute properly to the re-read, but I love this chapter, so I will try to add a few things..

a) When Jon leaves the shower and goes to the other side of the Wall to think, the places he sees are full of ghosts. The tower where the Old Bear was attacked by the wight, the place where Ygritte died, the tunnel where Donal Noye fought against Mag... then, on the other side, desolation. The bodies of dead wildlings were burnt, but there are things left by those who died. Some pieces of cloth, broken spears... After a few moments of reflection, when the sun is setting, Ghost comes back, and Jon says he thought he had died, like everyone else. It's a really melancholic scene, So much has been lost, and now Jon, the rest of the Watch and the wildlings will have to start again and rebuild what they can.

b) Even though Thorne is the one supporting Slynt, and not the other way around, it's interesting that Thorne seems to be the one able to keep calm and try to control the situation... He is the one the urges the men to vote instead of scream at each other (at Slynt actually), and creates an opportunity for Othell to speak up. When Mormont's raven starts to say "snow, snow" and lands on Jon's shoulder, Slynt is baffled, but Thorne manages to mock Sam to diminish the impact of the ravens's performance. Which ends up working in Jon's favour, since the raven seems to understand Thorne's objections and proceeds to prove him wrong.

c) My book is not written in English, so forgive me if the translation is misleading.. But after Othell's speech, the men from Eastwatch start screaming "pot!", indicating their intentions to vote again. When Thorne claims that the raven is not Mormont's, and that he can't speak more than one word, the raven says grain/corn (?), to show that he has, indeed, a richer vocabulary. When everyone stays silent, he starts to say "pot, pot". It's almost as if he was actually saying "well, if no one has anything else to say, maybe you should start voting".

[Bran Vras]

In brief, here are my two points.

1. The puppet master behind Jon's election is Maester Aemon.

2. The choosing can reasonably be understood as fraudulent (and Jon as an "usurper").

Here is what Stannis has to say about the election (this is ahead of us in Jon II, ADwD but serves as a useful introduction).

“Alliser Thorne complains about the manner of your choosing, and I cannot say he does not have a grievance.” The map lay between them like a battleground, drenched by the colors of the glowing sword. “The count was done by a blind man with your fat friend by his elbow. And Slynt names you a turncloak.”

Sour grapes from Thorne and Slynt, surely. But I think Stannis lives up to his reputation as a just man by defending them. Perhaps this election has been stolen in the most perverse way: the victor understands it as legitimate and the losers are ridiculed and powerless to defend themselves.

However, Maester Aemon has masterfully orchestrated Jon’s victory by not exactly clean politics. We’ll see in a moment why Stannis might understand this better than us.

Perhaps it’s worth to keep in mind Ragnorak’s "dirty hands" post that discussed the second conversation between Aemon and Jon (in AGoT).

My two main points are discussed in detail below. I have enclosed every part of the long, long post within the spoiler tag – it's adapted from something I have written elsewhere. Sorry for the length, but I think the details are worth examining.

One thousand ears and one: the unfolding of the election

Note that both Mallister and Pyke recognize immediately that Sam comes from Aemon. The old maester’s meddling seems a familiar thing.

“I recall,” Maester Aemon said, “but Sam, I am a maester, chained and sworn. My duty is to counsel the Lord Commander, whoever he might be. It would not be proper for me to be seen to favor one contender over another.”

Despite being willing to interfere from behind the scene, Aemon insisted that all the due processes are respected – with some hypocrisy.

Maester Aemon, calm as always, said, “Your Grace, the Night’s Watch has been choosing its own leader since Brandon the Builder raised the Wall. Through Jeor Mormont we have had nine hundred and ninety-seven Lords Commander in unbroken succession, each chosen by the men he would lead, a tradition many thousands of years old.”

Here a few passages that shows how acute an observer Aemon is. First his hearing (already in Tyrion III, he proved able to listen to distant conversations in a dining room).

“My lord,” he said, “will you tell me what’s happened here?”

Maester Aemon answered, from the far end of the hall. “Your name has been put forth as Lord Commander, Jon.”

We have also this little episode which shows that Aemon is a wonder at political calculations.

“I had one hundred and sixty-eight for Pyke,” Clydas said. “We are two votes short by my count, and one by Sam’s.”

“Sam’s count is correct,” said Maester Aemon. “Jon Snow did not cast a token. It makes no matter. No one is close.”

Another sign of Aemon’s electoral dexterity.

A cascade of seashells, stones, and copper pennies covered the table. Aemon’s wrinkled hands sorted with surprising speed, moving the shells here, the stones there, the pennies to one side, the occasional arrowhead, nail, and acorn off to themselves.

Let’s look at how the election unfolded.

Note the favourable timing of Jon’s appearance, which made the best of the stuck situation. A familiar tactic for many committees in the academic world, and elsewhere: keep the candidate in reserve until he can appear as a solution to the standoff. Did they teach Aemon that in Oldtown?

The second component of Jon’s victory resides in the Mallister-Pyke coalition. It’s fair to say that they came onboard by the use of flattery, lies, and manipulations which had little to do with the good governance of the Watch. But I think this is a realistic depiction of how politics are played. I understand that Sam’s mission to Mallister and Pyke has been prepared with Aemon (the text is not clear about this point).

I see no sign that Aemon or Sam has influenced Yarwyck, who refused to declare for Slynt and even expressed some preference for Jon Snow. At that point Thorne and Slynt felt that the electoral dynamics are going against them. But they still felt they were ahead since Thorne called for the kettle. I understand that Yarwyck’s hesitancy was representative of a large part of the Watch.

Hence the election has been decided by the raven, or so it appears.

The Raven ploy

Since the kettle is described as being covered by a heavy lid, so there is no question that someone put the bird inside – and was able to teach him a trick of two. Sam assures Jon that he has nothing to do with the ploy. Clydas is obviously surprised by the appearance of the bird. That leaves us Aemon. Who else could have recovered the bird, who had probably returned to the rookery shortly after Mormont’s death?

We have known since AGoT that Aemon is aware of the special nature of Mormont’s raven "He is a rare bird". (But not rare enough to lift a heavy lid, even when inhabited by a skin changer.)

As a political move, this is a crass trick: a manipulation of the electorate through superstition and credulity at the last hour, precisely a situation that modern electoral rules often proscribe. Even the Election of the High Septon does not rely on such antics. Since the rules for the choosing are not written, any plea for the formal illegality is hopeless. But, it’s clear to me that the spirit of a fair election has been betrayed.

All this opens a host of questions. How many choosings has Aemon manipulated in the past? (I have in mind chiefly the election of Bloodraven long ago, but Pyke and Mallister seem familiar with Aemon’s meddling.) To what extent had he Mormont in his pocket? Has Aemon in effect ruled the Watch for decades?

I find illuminating to bring up another long past event.

The Great Council of 233

A good hint of Stannis’ understanding of Aemon is given in the exchange just before the election (Samwell V).

“He has taken the black, sire,” Maester Aemon pointed out.

“I am well aware of that,” the king said. “I am aware of more than you know, Aemon Targaryen.”

The old man inclined his head. “I am only Aemon, sire. We give up our House names when we forge our maester’s chains.”

The king gave that a curt nod, as if to say he knew and did not care.

It seems that Stannis alludes to something that happened before Aemon took the black. But I take Stannis’ meaning as understanding that Aemon is not the benign old man we were led to perceive. Let’s return to Aemon’s story, as we know it from Mormont in ACoK.

“Blind he may be, but Aemon knows what he’s about. I pray the gods let us keep him another twenty years. Do you know that he might have been king?”

Jon was taken by surprise. “He told me his father was king, but not... I thought him perhaps a younger son.”

“So he was. His father’s father was Daeron Targaryen, the Second of His Name, who brought Dorne into the realm. Part of the pact was that he wed a Dornish princess. She gave him four sons. Aemon’s father Maekar was the youngest of those, and Aemon was his third son. Mind you, all this happened long before I was born, ancient as Smallwood would make me.”

“Maester Aemon was named for the Dragonknight.”

“So he was. Some say Prince Aemon was King Daeron’s true father, not Aegon the Unworthy. Be that as it may, our Aemon lacked the Dragonknight’s martial nature. He likes to say he had a slow sword but quick wits. Small wonder his grandfather packed him off to the Citadel. He was nine or ten, I believe... and ninth or tenth in the line of succession as well.”

Maester Aemon had counted more than a hundred name days, Jon knew. Frail, shrunken, wizened, and blind, it was hard to imagine him as a little boy no older than Arya.

Mormont continued. “Aemon was at his books when the eldest of his uncles, the heir apparent, was slain in a tourney mishap. He left two sons, but they followed him to the grave not long after, during the Great Spring Sickness. King Daeron was also taken, so the crown passed to Daeron’s second son, Aerys.”

“The Mad King?” Jon was confused. Aerys had been king before Robert, that wasn’t so long ago.

“No, this was Aerys the First. The one Robert deposed was the second of that name.” “How long ago was this?”

“Eighty years or close enough,” the Old Bear said, “and no, I still hadn’t been born, though Aemon had forged half a dozen links of his maester’s chain by then. Aerys wed his own sister, as the Targaryens were wont to do, and reigned for ten or twelve years. Aemon took his vows and left the Citadel to serve at some lordling’s court... until his royal uncle died without issue. The Iron Throne passed to the last of King Daeron’s four sons. That was Maekar, Aemon’s father. The new king summoned all his sons to court and would have made Aemon part of his councils, but he refused, saying that would usurp the place rightly belonging to the Grand Maester. Instead he served at the keep of his eldest brother, another Daeron. Well, that one died too, leaving only

a feeble-witted daughter as heir. Some pox he caught from a whore, I believe. The next brother was Aerion.”

“Aerion the Monstrous?” Jon knew that name. “The Prince Who Thought He Was a Dragon” was one of Old Nan’s more gruesome tales. His little brother Bran had loved it.

“The very one, though he named himself Aerion Brightflame. One night, in his cups, he drank a jar of wildfire, after telling his friends it would transform him into a dragon, but the gods were kind and it transformed him into a corpse. Not quite a year after, King Maekar died in battle against an outlaw lord.”

Jon was not entirely innocent of the history of the realm; his own maester had seen to that. “That was the year of the Great Council,” he said. “The lords passed over Prince Aerion’s infant son and Prince Daeron’s daughter and gave the crown to Aegon.”

“Yes and no. First they offered it, quietly, to Aemon. And quietly he refused. The gods meant for him to serve, not to rule, he told them. He had sworn a vow and would not break it, though the High Septon himself offered to absolve him. Well, no sane man wanted any blood of Aerion’s on the throne, and Daeron’s girl was a lackwit besides being female, so they had no choice but to turn to Aemon’s younger brother-Aegon, the Fifth of His Name. Aegon the Unlikely, they called him, born the fourth son of a fourth son. Aemon knew, and rightly, that if he remained at court those who disliked his brother’s rule would seek to use him, so he came to the Wall. And here he has remained, while his brother and his brother’s son and his son each reigned and died in turn, until Jaime Lannister put an end to the line of the Dragonkings.”

Mormont starts his story by praising Aemon’s competence and then proceeds to describe a selfless man. But his telling is unreliable for several reasons: he says explicitly he wasn’t born at the time, he most likely had the story from Aemon himself. Compare with what Jon knows about the Council: everything but what concerns Aemon. In short, Jon had the most official story. Mormont had Aemon’s version. And Stannis, who is Egg’s great-grandson, might know the inside story from his family. Aemon makes the family connection through his niece Rhaelle.

Rhaelle, Egg’s little girl, she was how they came by it... their father’s mother... she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl.

One thing is clear in the story: Aerion’s son has been deprived of the throne. The madness of a parent is not a reason for disinheritance,(See Aerys and his children and half the targaryen monarchs.) and Egg was just as much from Aerion’s blood as Aerion’s son, unless I have missed something. It’s interesting that Mormont feels the need to justify the disinheritance, but gives only such a weak justification.

The reasons for Aemon’s refusal of the Crown might not be those stated. Evidently, Aemon adored Egg (half of his delirious thoughts are devoted to Egg in AFfC). One possible interpretation is that Aemon’s abdication was deliberately calculated to legitimize Aegon’s crowning (which appeared thus as deriving from Aemon’s selflessness rather from than the usurpation of Aerion’s son). Supposing that Aemon sincerely wished to serve, rather than rule, why did he accept to go the Wall, where he didn’t do much useful, under all appearances?

Of course, fooling Thorne and Slynt is child’s play compared to what happened in 233. I wonder what spooky trick convinced the Great Council at the time: a dragon egg rolled by itself at Egg’s feet? The skull of the Black Dread voiced its support in the Throne room?

Bloodraven had been confined to the black cells under the Red Keep, in effect in a situation similar to his current predicament beyond the Wall. Could he have an influence then? His liberation and assignation to the Wall followed immediately the election. Supposedly Egg emptied the cells to mark the beginning of his reign. Of course, no one would free a man like Brynden Rivers inadvertently.

There are even darker readings of Mormont’s story. There has been a quick succession of deaths among the crown princes. Remind me who was in charge of Prince Daeron’s health? (and, I might add, who gave Aerion the idea to drink wildfire?) And, after all, wasn’t Aemon's exile to the Wall a punishment rather than a self-imposed exile? Consider Marwyn the Mage’s question in AFfC:

Ask yourself why Aemon Targaryen was allowed to waste his life upon the Wall, when by rights he should have been raised to archmaester.

Marwyn goes no further that saying that Aemon wasn’t trusted by the Conclave. Or is it that Aemon expected to accomplish something significant by coming to the Wall?

Fortunately we might have the answers to these questions in a future Dunk and Egg story. Or in a perceptive reading of AFfC.

In any case, the council that crowned Aegon V seems to have been a nasty business. Ragnorak has insisted on the bloody hands imagery during his conversation with Jon in AGoT. Are Aemon’s hands bloodier than it seems? What to make of what he told Tyrion?

I have been called many things, my lord,” he said, “but kind is seldom one of them.”

Egg’s reign might have been for the better of the Realm, though. Just like Jon’s tenure as the Lord Commander might be for the better of the Watch. This is the last advice given by Aemon to Jon.

“Allow me to give my lord one last piece of counsel,” the old man had said, “the same counsel that I once gave my brother when we parted for the last time. He was three-and-thirty when the Great Council chose him to mount the Iron Throne. A man grown with sons of his own, yet in some ways still a boy. Egg had an innocence to him, a sweetness we all loved. Kill the boy within you, I told him the day I took ship for the Wall. It takes a man to rule. An Aegon, not an Egg. Kill the boy and let the man be born.” The old man felt Jon’s face. “You are half the age that Egg was, and your own burden is a crueler one, I fear. You will have little joy of your command, but I think you have the strength in you to do the things that must be done. Kill the boy, Jon Snow. Winter is almost upon us. Kill the boy and let the man be born.”

It is reproduced here just to demonstrate how vivid in Aemon’s mind the association between Egg and Jon is.

Jon as Aemon’s puppet

Let's look back on Aemon’s influence over Jon’s carreer at the Watch. It is certain that the maester had a say in Jon’s assignation to the stewards at the side of the Lord Commander. (Has it been discussed in detail upthread?) There are even good reasons to attribute the decision to Aemon. Jon had come to the maester to plead for Sam the night before, and was listened to attentively. The next day Jon expresses at Bowen Marsh his disappointment at not having been dispatched to the rangers.

“Do you take me for a servant?”

“No,” Maester Aemon said, from the back of the sept. Clydas helped him stand. “We took you for a man of Night’s Watch…"

(Again the nearly superhuman hearing.) Bowen tells Jon that Mormont specifically asked for Jon at his side. But, we know that Aemon decisively influenced the assignation of Sam. It’s easy to infer that he could have made his advice about Jon heard as well.

Another episode might have helped form Aemon’s opinion: the evident courage displayed by Jon when he was treated for his leg wound.

Beyond personal affinities and the recognition of Jon’s promise, is there any other reason for Aemon to have supported Jon all along? Aemon might have once sponsored the Targaryen bastard Bloodraven as Lord Commander. Aemon was close to Rhaegar. Any chance that Aemon has guessed Jon’s parentage? (I don’t see any, but it’s worth asking. Is it possible after all that Aemon received a raven from Rhaegar during the war?)

It’s not clear when Aemon first conceived the idea of giving Jon the command of the Watch. One could date that to Jon’s assignation to steward of the Lord Commander. Aemon mentioned the choosing for the first time when he was treating Jon for the leg wound. But it might be that the notion came to him during the meeting with Melisandre and Stannis. Melisandre made then a solemn appeal for the war for life itself, which received no echo among the candidates. Only Aemon was receptive to Melisandre, and realized perhaps at that moment that a candidate of a larger stature was needed. Perhaps even Melisandre knew (through Stannis: The king gave that a curt nod, as if to say he knew and did not care.) that Aemon could manipulate the choosing, and there was some implicit understanding between them. However, I see no personal affinity between Aemon and Melisandre.

It’s worth to consider that Jon owes his Command of the Watch to one of the wisest and most knowledgeable men of the 7K, the last known targaryen in Westeros, a man with a deep interest in prophecy. We have little knowledge of Egg’s reign. It’s not clear whether Aemon's efficient kingmaking outweighs his disdain for the legitimate processes. In any case, Aemon’s political philosophy is not of the most naïve form.

“His Grace is not an easy man. Few are, who wear a crown. Many good men have been bad kings, Maester Aemon used to say, and some bad men have been good kings.”

So if Aemon takes the Watch seriously, and it seems he does, he didn’t give the command of the Watch to Jon simply in reason of personal sympathies. As long as we don’t know better about Brynden’s story at the Wall and what happened in 233, Aemon will remain a mysterious character. At best he is a well-intentioned and discreetly influential pragmatist, but he could very well be a character of a darker sort.

Aemon’s final journey to Oldtown reveals nothing about his reason for putting Jon in command of the Watch.

Usurpation?

Beside what Stannis told Jon about Thorne’s complaint, we have a few indications of Slynt and Thorne’s discontent. Slynt will never acknowledge Jon’s legitimacy, and even allude to "blind fools who cast stones for Jon" and name Jon a turncloak even after the election.

Note the irony, Slynt is now the victim of an unfair succession resolution, like Ned Stark in King’s Landing. His fate will follow further Lord Eddard’s.

From Slynt and Thorne’s point of view, the election is fraudulent. But who would dare to blame a blind centenarian? Even Thorne’s initial protestation,

“Ser Piggy thinks we’re all fools, brothers,” he said. “He’s taught the bird this little trick. They all say snow, go up to the rookery and hear for yourselves. Mormont’s bird had more words than that.”

blew back on him after the raven uttered other words. After the election, Thorne has to rely on the false accusation that Sam could have fooled Aemon.

The charge of fraudulence can find traction if discontent were to spread in the Watch. Jon hardly seem to realize that his election can be put in doubt. The the only acknowledgement I could find is brief mention to Sam in AFfC that Sam lied to make his friend Lord Commander. Here is Jon's reaction to Stannis’s report of Thorne’s discontent (quoted at the beginning of the post). It's Jon II, ADwD.

And who would know one better than Slynt? “A turncloak would tell you what you wished to hear and betray you later. Your Grace knows that I was fairly chosen. My father always said you were a just man.”

But Stannis gave Jon a useful advice by pointing that Thorne and Slynt have a grievance. Instead of giving serious consideration to Stannis, he dismisses the issue. There is no question that Slynt and Thorne have reasons to feel cheated, and they will vent their complaints. Note that there is no concession speech from Slynt, while Marsh declares at once his intention to move forward.

The presence of Stannis’ army exerting pressure during the choosing could (and should) be thought as a circumstance that undermined the validity of the vote.

After the election, Jon is sure to enjoy a period of goodwill from the Watch – a common benefit of newly appointed leaders. This is confirmed by the behaviour of Bowen Marsh, a good representative of the silent majority, and generally mildly unfavourable to Jon. Questioning Jon’s legitimacy is not going to be an immediate issue. But the fraudulence can be part of a larger narrative about Jon. It will be easily forgotten if Jon succeeds as a Commander, otherwise beware the judgement of History.

Or Holy Spirit?

A totally different reading of the choosing is possible of course: some holy spirit has come to designate Jon. I don’t discard it, and I don’t necessarily see that as being in contradiction with what I have said above. I am agnostic on whether Brynden Rivers, and beyond him the «old gods», has control of the raven. But if he has, this would fit well with an earlier complicity between Aemon and his uncle at the Watch. Just like Bloodraven was in the background when Egg was elected. Mormont’s raven is certainly inhabited by a child of the forest, perhaps of the exceptional type. I don’t consider outlandish that the old gods/children of the forest/greenseers favor Jon Snow. After all, Jon felt a connection to the old gods which had just manifested themselves when Ghost reappeared at the Wall and Jon renounced Stannis’ offer to take Winterfell in the name of R’hllor. Ghost’s presence might have been a mixed blessing in electoral terms since wargs are sulfurous creatures.

Another (less) supernatural explanation is on the table: the raven expressed his former master Mormont’s (real) preference for Jon (see the position of steward and the Valyrian sword). Perhaps, something of Mormont survived in the bird – recall that the raven ate Mormont’s face, and the Mormonts have some reputation for skinchanging.

We don’t need to discuss the reality of the mandate from heaven, but rather the perception the characters have of it. Nobody, not even Jon, ever express the idea that the raven was the messenger of the gods. If the episode has durably struck the imagination of the black brothers, it is left unsaid.

The raven does not appear to be an animal particularly associated to the old gods in the folklore of the Seven Kingdoms (am I mistaken?). So there is no reason for the men of the Watch to think that Jon has been chosen particularly by the gods of the north.

There is no sign, at this point or later, that Jon sees himself as chosen by the gods or that he has been impressed by the raven who flew to his shoulder. Like many men of the Watch he saw the raven episode as a funny trick. Doesn’t Jon feel a certain entitlement when Sam reveals that all very young Lord Commanders were (legitimate or bastard) Starks? In any case, Jon will see himself as a sort of savior figure throughout ADwD. It is not said whether the manner of his choosing made him believe in his manifest destiny.

Little consideration of the voting tokens: nails for the builder Yarwyck, stones for Mallister, seashells for the seaman Pyke, copper pennies for the corrupt Slynt , and wildling (!) arrowheads for Jon.

General reflections

I perceive three weaknesses in Jon’s ascent to the Command of the Watch: the contestable manner of the choosing, the presence of Stannis army, which makes Jon appear as Stannis’ puppet and thirdly his non-declaration of intention. Indeed Jon did not get elected on a political platform. Of course, his name was put on the ballot unknowingly and Jon did not have the opportunity to declare that he had already approved Stannis’ plan of settling the Gift with the free folk. (The conversation was kept secret, but could be held against Jon in case this would be known.)

I don’t see any moral ambiguity in Jon’s behavior during the election (indeed he was totally passive). However, he seems to have lacked the lucidity to recognize Aemon’s work. It would have been wise to recognize that an unfair trick helped him. In my opinion, Jon’s image as a Lord Commander is ambiguous from the start.

Jon’s choosing is another opportunity to contemplate the recurring question of the legitimacy of power. The more we look, the more misty the notion becomes. Who is the rightful heir to the Iron Throne. Tommen (via Joffrey), Stannis, Daenerys, Jon perhaps, Aegon, a Blackfyre descendant, Aerion’s infant son? All their claims have some legitimacy. There is no clear answer. The transmission of power is riddled with faits accomplis, usurpations, rule bending, and lesser treacheries. See Aemon’s story told by Mormont: many think that King Daeron was an illegitimate son, and therefore not the rightful king. But he kept his crown and life went on.

Perhaps the real question is not to determine who is the rightful ruler, or to put in place the correct institutions, but how to manage the inevitable ambiguities resulting from human nature and the impossibility to constrain the possibilities of History by a set or rules. I have avoided to trumpet that Jon is an usurper. The uncertainty of his legitimacy is not worse than what we see elsewhere.

If Aemon has considered such questions, his answers seem more practical than theoretical, and perhaps rightly so.

[Lummel]

I'm way too late to contribute properly to the re-read, but I love this chapter, so I will try to add a few things..

a) When Jon leaves the shower and goes to the other side of the Wall to think, the places he sees are full of ghosts. The tower where the Old Bear was attacked by the wight, the place where Ygritte died, the tunnel where Donal Noye fought against Mag... then, on the other side, desolation. The bodies of dead wildlings were burnt, but there are things left by those who died. Some pieces of cloth, broken spears... After a few moments of reflection, when the sun is setting, Ghost comes back, and Jon says he thought he had died, like everyone else. It's a really melancholic scene, So much has been lost, and now Jon, the rest of the Watch and the wildlings will have to start again and rebuild what they can.

B) Even though Thorne is the one supporting Slynt, and not the other way around, it's interesting that Thorne seems to be the one able to keep calm and try to control the situation... He is the one the urges the men to vote instead of scream at each other (at Slynt actually), and creates an opportunity for Othell to speak up. When Mormont's raven starts to say "snow, snow" and lands on Jon's shoulder, Slynt is baffled, but Thorne manages to mock Sam to diminish the impact of the ravens's performance. Which ends up working in Jon's favour, since the raven seems to understand Thorne's objections and proceeds to prove him wrong.

c) My book is not written in English, so forgive me if the translation is misleading.. But after Othell's speech, the men from Eastwatch start screaming "pot!", indicating their intentions to vote again. When Thorne claims that the raven is not Mormont's, and that he can't speak more than one word, the raven says grain/corn (?), to show that he has, indeed, a richer vocabulary. When everyone stays silent, he starts to say "pot, pot". It's almost as if he was actually saying "well, if no one has anything else to say, maybe you should start voting".

If you are reading the chapters and commenting then you are contributing properly :)

I like that you picked up on the melancholy of the scene. It is easy to see the end of ASOS as a series of high points for Jon, saving the Wall, winning the election but I would agree that Jon's state of mind is increasingly melancholy. The landscape is now full of memories of destruction and loss. Even though the meeting with Ghost is joyful, there is always an oddness to Ghost's silence. An uncanny quality.

Yes, Thorne certainly seems more effective with people than Slynt who seems to bluster too much. Thorne comes across as the more intelligent of the two.

Mormont's raven - well for the reasons you point out some people like to track what it says. But it is remarkable that it appears to understand what Thorne said!

1. The puppet master behind Jon's election is Maester Aemon.

2. The choosing can reasonably be understood as fraudulent (and Jon as an "usurper").

Here is what Stannis has to say about the election (this is ahead of us in Jon II, ADwD but serves as a useful introduction).

“Alliser Thorne complains about the manner of your choosing, and I cannot say he does not have a grievance.” The map lay between them like a battleground, drenched by the colors of the glowing sword. “The count was done by a blind man with your fat friend by his elbow. And Slynt names you a turncloak.”

For Thorne to complain about election fixing will be a fine example of the pot calling the kettle black since we see him in Jon XIII working to persuade Yarwyck to stand down in favour of Slynt!

This is hilarious because Thorne attempts to do exactly what Sam succeeds in doing, which is winning the block votes that swing behind a few key figures. Fraudulent is too strong in my opinion, unless there is some evidence of secretly filling up the kettle with Jon's token. Clearly though the action of election is largely behind closed doors and is not an open and public process despite the democratic trappings of suffrage and a secret ballot. We might well wonder how often or even if at all somebody who isn't of noble blood (legitimately or illegitimately) gets to be lord commander.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

For Thorne to complain about election fixing will be a fine example of the pot calling the kettle black since we see him in Jon XIII working to persuade Yarwyck to stand down in favour of Slynt!

This is hilarious because Thorne attempts to do exactly what Sam succeeds in doing, which is winning the block votes that swing behind a few key figures. Fraudulent is too strong in my opinion, unless there is some evidence of secretly filling up the kettle with Jon's token. Clearly though the action of election is largely behind closed doors and is not an open and public process despite the democratic trappings of suffrage and a secret ballot. We might well wonder how often or even if at all somebody who isn't of noble blood (legitimately or illegitimately) gets to be lord commander.

Yeah the elections are basically decided by the captains of the garrisons, it's more like a great council than a true democratic election

[Bran Vras]

For Thorne to complain about election fixing will be a fine example of the pot calling the kettle black since we see him in Jon XIII working to persuade Yarwyck to stand down in favour of Slynt!

This is hilarious because Thorne attempts to do exactly what Sam succeeds in doing, which is winning the block votes that swing behind a few key figures. Fraudulent is too strong in my opinion, unless there is some evidence of secretly filling up the kettle with Jon's token. Clearly though the action of election is largely behind closed doors and is not an open and public process despite the democratic trappings of suffrage and a secret ballot. We might well wonder how often or even if at all somebody who isn't of noble blood (legitimately or illegitimately) gets to be lord commander.

Obviously, my points did not reach you. That saddens a bit, to say the truth, since you are generally thoughtful. I had hoped to be heard.

Since I need to spell it out in a few words, here it is again: Aemon put the raven in the kettle and taught him the trick (no need to invoke Bloodraven, though he might be there). Of course, Mallister and Pyke recognized that Sam was Aemon’s envoy. Unfortunately you have missed Aemon's key role in your (otherwise fine) analysis, Lummel. If you are not convinced yet, read entirely my previous post, and you might even be enlightened about Aemon Targaryen.

If the re-read proceeds without anyone giving a thought to the fact that Jon owes his election to Aemon, I don’t know what this thread is about.

About the fraudulence of the election. Sam rallying Mallister and Pyke with lies is fine, as is Thorne trying to gain Yarwyck to his cause without lies apparently. But, by our modern standards, influencing the electorate by superstition at the last minute is cheating (I am speaking of the raven trick). Whether it should be considered cheating in Westeros is debatable, but not exactly the point. Compare to Robert’s succession. Was it fraudulent? Truth doesn’t matter. What matters is the competition of perspectives. My aim was not to prove the election fraudulent, but to identify the fraudulence as a valid perspective. Stannis had understood this very well when he acknowledged that Thorne had a legitimate grievance. But Jon hasn’t. It’s already a step towards his demise.

I can put it in another way. Some at the Wall will say sooner or later that a black sorcery has led them to choose the bastard/warg/turncloak. And this might not be entirely false.

[Lummel]

No need to be sad Bran Vras, it is simply a difference in opinion.

Did the raven swing enough votes to Jon that he otherwise would not have got and that this difference alone was enough to win him the election? Everyone has to make up their own minds on that.

It seems odd to me to put the raven in a category of invalid electoral behaviour while putting the suborning and external influence, both Sam's and Bowen's letter from Tywin, into a category of allowable behaviour. To my mind it is clear that the election was, to use modern terminology, stolen and GRRM makes that clear to us too - on the last page of the chapter we have Grenn and Pyp saying "Sam did it" and we know that Sam lied to Pyke and Mallister to win their votes. Fraudulence is more than a valid perspective - it is a fact (even without the raven)!

However Stannis' comment suggests that he is assuming somekind of vote fixing along the lines of Sam and Aemon having a second pre-filled kettle or removing non Jon-tokens. That doesn't seem to have been the case.

Looking at elections on the whole Asha is the only one to make realistic undertakings based on a realistic analysis and an understanding of her people's needs - she looses. For everybody else it is sweet lies and Arbor Gold (frequently omitting the arbor gold too).

Clearly there ought to be consequences (beyond having his liver eaten raw with onions) to the nature of Jon's election in that he is effectively in the debt of the people who made it happen, are there consequences in terms of not attending to the losers? Well that is something to be discussed in ADWD.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

Ave!

The elections for the LC of the NW should not be compared, IMO, to the procedures of decocracy. The only similarities are the ballot system and that the electorate and the nominees may consist of all the members of the institution. Apart from that, the basic principles of accountability and recallability of the mandate are missing (sorry, my vocabulary doesn't help). The LC serves for life and, as it seems - based on Sam's conversation with Mallister and Pyke -, he is chosen for his personal qualities, not his 'political' agenda. In this special case there is a direct analogy to papal elections; the voters are locked up into the hall and deprived of food until they decide.

For the Watch

In this chapter, there is an introduction to the different meanings that various fractions give to this phrase. The NW can be viewed as an institution with a specific purpose and the focus should be on how its members serve the purpose; or, it can be viewed as a brotherhood of men and the focus should be on the wellbeing of its members. I think that in this chapter, there are hints that Marsh and Yarwyck belong to the second category. (Marsh and co. perception of "the Watch" will be important in analysing future chapters.)

The sound of voices echoing off the vaulted ceiling brought him back to Castle Black. “I don’t know,” a man was saying, in a voice thick with doubts. “Maybe if I knew the man better... Lord Stannis didn’t have much good to say of him, I’ll tell you that.”

“When has Stannis Baratheon ever had much good to say of anyone?” Ser Alliser’s flinty voice was unmistakable. “If we let Stannis choose our Lord Commander, we become his bannermen in all but name. Tywin Lannister is not like to forget that, and you know it will be Lord Tywin who wins in the end. He’s already beaten Stannis once, on the Blackwater.”

“Lord Tywin favors Slynt,” said Bowen Marsh, in a fretful, anxious voice. “I can show you his letter, Othell. ‘Our faithful friend and servant’ he called him.”

Thorne's arguments are based, I believe, on their (Marsh and Yarwyck's, not Thorne's) sincere concern about the Watch, as they understand it. It is a very valid fear that the Watch - the men that constitute the Watch - will suffer greatly if Tywin prevails, should they choose against his wish.

Ironically, the core of this argument is what turns Yarwyck around in the end:

That would be sort of kicking King Stannis in the mouth, and I don’t see how that serves us.

The direct and very present danger of displeasing Stannis instead of the potential and, in any case, distant, danger of displeasing Tywin...

@Bran Vras, it was an interesting read but I disagree that Aemon was the architect of Jon's election. I don't see him playing any part other than what is presented "on screen". He did encourage Sam to take action, but I think, as by my reading of Sam's POV, that he didn't have any role (or even knowledge of the specifics) in Sam's machinations.

On Mormont's raven, I am towards attributing this to Bloodraven - the raven's contribution in saving Mormont from the White walker incident heavily implies, IMO, tht the bird is skinchanged by someone who knows... After all, Bloodrven has shown an invested interest in the Stark family ("I saw your birth, and that of your lord father before you").

I agree that the bird was a "dirty trick" to win elections, but on the other hand, the electorate should bear responsibility of their choices. Of course, in a democracy, the authority, on principle, has a duty to educate the people (and a lot could be said about the quality of the press and its role in modern democracies) - but this is not democracy...

"Sam, Sam, Sam the wizard, Sam the wonder, Sam Sam the marvel man": Should we expect more 'wonders' from Sam in the story to come? Is this line a forshadowing of Sam's future role?

I wondered why Jon needed to go beyond the Wall to think about Stannis' offer. Is it a matter of seeing things from "where you stand"? A way to distance himself from the Watch and from all that lies south of it (and, symbolically, to free himself from the constraints that the world south of the Wall poses on him), so that he could see clearly what he wants?

[Ragnorak]

Very nice work, Lummel!

In brief, here are my two points.

1. The puppet master behind Jon's election is Maester Aemon.

2. The choosing can reasonably be understood as fraudulent (and Jon as an "usurper").

Here is what Stannis has to say about the election (this is ahead of us in Jon II, ADwD but serves as a useful introduction).

“Alliser Thorne complains about the manner of your choosing, and I cannot say he does not have a grievance.” The map lay between them like a battleground, drenched by the colors of the glowing sword. “The count was done by a blind man with your fat friend by his elbow. And Slynt names you a turncloak.”

<snip>

I too found myself wondering whether or not Aemon was behind the raven in the kettle. Sam's denial is believable which seems to leave only Aemon and Bloodraven as possibilities. If it was in fact Aemon that invites questions as to just how much he endeavored to get Jon elected in other ways. I'm closer to Lummel's opinion that I don't think his activities rise to the level of fraud or election fixing. PR and spin are fair game in elections and have a large grey area unless they cross into outright fabrication. Jon was Mormont's choice. Longclaw, his picking Jon as squire, and his lamentation to Tyrion about the lack of a worthy replacement give us enough to reasonably make that conclusion. The raven as political theater only works in so much as it conveys Mormont's endorsement which isn't deceitful when it comes to Jon. The timing and placement is highly manipulative, but hardly more offensive to the integrity of the election than implied threats of Tywin's wrath.

In modern society the "free press" is supposed to act as a counter to misinformation from out of control political spin. Pyke's comment about Slynt never having seen Harrenhal is probably a good example of that dynamic. The notion of an objective press is a relatively new thing to the latter half of the 20th century. Prior to that newspapers were very much advocacy and opinion based publications designed to make a case to sway people to a cause or a candidate. If one were to compare the most interference heavy Aemon interpretation to the normal political machinations of 19th century America I suspect Aemon's actions are somewhat mild.

Of course Aemon as a maester is supposed to be objective and not an advocacy based operative so that makes the scenario a bit more grey, but only for Aemon's honor and not the election. Assuming his interference gives us a parallel between the oaths of his order in this election and the oaths of the Watch in the circumstances that will confront Jon down the road. I think you are dead on in pointing out the bloody hands dynamic being at play and we have a case of Aemon quite literally preferring ravens. His interference also touches on the ideas of power. Slynt and Thorne are trying to do essentially the very thing that Aemon successfully pulls off. Those two are appealing primarily to an implicit endorsement from Kings Landing to sway votes and the raven appeals to an implicit endorsement from Mormont (with some added ethical blur because technically the KL endorsement has no place while Mormont's does.) Aemon is more successful at his similar ploy and also manages to maintain his own invisibility as a manipulator. Assuming Aemon is behind this it is an excellent example of Varys riddle and manipulating where men believe power resides.

I think there's a lot that can be read into Aemon as a player here from oaths to honor to power dynamics and definitely the bloody hands view of morality.

[Lady Arya's Song]

I have been lurking and following along and just want to thank all of you for your thoughtful posts and analysis.

Regarding Mormont's raven and Maester Aemon and the election.

I have long held the conviction that even though no one in the NW ever mentions Bloodravens time as LC of the NW except for Maester Aemon...the fact of the matter in my mind is that Bloodraven has been the LC this entire time.

Everyone except Maester Aemon are in fact thralls. The raven hears everything said and reads all correspondance sent to the Wall. We see examples of this happening in the series. The raven also influences the LC subtly but more importantly the raven is speaking to us the reader and giving us clues and foreshadowing.

The raven is BR speaking into the ear of whatever current person is the LC, the raven actually speaks to us the reader throughout the story and its the voice of BR (Martin) telling us the reader who is actually in charge.

For example, many people think when the raven is saying "king" way back in AGoT ..that the raven is referring to Jon but I have always speculated that the raven is actually speaking to us the reader and saying I am still the true King of Westeros, and the LC of the NW.

BR is actually still moving pawns and players in the game of thrones. Down in KL and here on the Wall and beyond the Wall. The clues are sometimes in the adjectives Martin writes regarding what the bird is doing when the bird speaks. I believe Maester Aemon and Bloodraven have been working in tandem for years.

Mance Rayder the king-beyond-the wall was probably also being used by BR to unite and bring the wildlings to the Wall while at the same time BR sent the direwolf pups and prepared Jon to come to the Wall. Behind all that has gone on in the entire Dunk and Egg plus the five books..BR is behind it all. There is a conflict going on but its an ancient one. I suspect there must be someone else with magical powers moving their pieces in this ancient dance that has gone on for generations.

Ok back to lurk, I just want to thank Lummel and everyone for wonderful posts that cause me to see new perspectives in the story. I for one do believe Maester Aemon put the raven in the kettle..and he has been working with BR for many many years.

[Ragnorak]

Cat and Winterfell

One of the ironies about the Stannis offer is that we as readers already know that Robb has offered Jon Winterfell over Sansa. (We and Sam also know that Bran and Rickon are alive which complicates pondering eventualities.) Jon thinks of rebuilding Winterfell and ponders a Winterfell without a Heart Tree. In our very next chapter, the last of SoS, Sansa will metaphorically rebuild Winterfell in a godswood without a heart tree. Aside from that circumstance there are a number of Jon references as well as the shadow of Cat over both characters.

The snow drifted down and down, all in ghostly silence, and lay thick and unbroken on the ground. All color had fled the world outside. It was a place of whites and blacks and greys. White towers and white snow and white statues, black shadows and black trees, the dark grey sky above. A pure world, Sansa thought. I do not belong here.

Yet she stepped out all the same. Her boots tore ankle-deep holes into the smooth white surface of the snow, yet made no sound. Sansa drifted past frosted shrubs and thin dark trees, and wondered if she were still dreaming. Drifting snowflakes brushed her face as light as lover’s kisses, and melted on her cheeks. At the center of the garden, beside the statue of the weeping woman that lay broken and half-buried on the ground, she turned her face up to the sky and closed her eyes. She could feel the snow on her lashes, taste it on her lips. It was the taste of Winterfell. The taste of innocence. The taste of dreams.

When Sansa opened her eyes again, she was on her knees. She did not remember falling. It seemed to her that the sky was a lighter shade of grey. Dawn, she thought. Another day. Another new day. It was the old days she hungered for. Prayed for. But who could she pray to? The garden had been meant for a godswood once, she knew, but the soil was too thin and stony for a weirwood to take root. A godswood without gods, as empty as me.

The snow falling in ghostly silence certainly has echoes of Jon. Dawn, the hunger for Winterfell, the sense of not belonging, and the idea of Winterfell without a godswood all connect back to this chapter.

Sansa and Jon are both ignorant of Robb's will and the objections raised by Cat, but Lady Stark overshadows both chapters. Prior to this Jon's reluctance is tied to his sense of honor at breaking an oath and guilt over loyalty to his siblings and the price they had to pay to create the opportunity for him to get Winterfell. He also feels reticent at the strings attached to the offer from Stannis and has his recurring dream of not belonging as well. The recollection of Robb speaking Cat's words and his comparison of Cat to Stannis connect Catelyn to every internal debate Jon has had over Winterfell to date. That memory puts a "Cat shadow" across his entire Winterfell dilemma.

Sansa has been targeted by Littlefinger because of her resemblance to Cat. Her entire situation is overshadowed by Cat. Additionally, her conflict with Lysa at the end of the chapter is also rooted in Catelyn's history. Her snow castle scene specifically evokes Cat with the broken statue of Alyssa Arryn that Cat identified with during her time at the Eyrie. Curiously, these associations come before the Epilogue that reveals unCat where Merrett Frey goes to Oldstones to get hung. There are a number of connections buried there. UnCat is hanging and not beheading Freys. Oldstones is where Robb names Jon his heir. The song about Jenny of Oldstones recalls the Ghost of Highheart which brings to mind the Prince that was Promised prophecy (which matters for Rhaegar's third child regardless of whether Jon is the object of that prophecy) as well as Sansa's slaying a giant in a castle made of snow prophecy which seemingly gets fulfilled in her last chapter. We also had some discussion earlier about House Mudd and Tristifer Mudd whose grave and former castle is Oldstones.

The Sansa/Jon dynamic has probably been summarized best by Tze here in the Pawn to Player threads. A number of people have made a case for Sansa and Jon being the closest to Ned and Ned's influence is fairly clear in both chapters. I had not made note of Cat's influence in this Jon chapter before nor had I realized it seems to tie in with Cat's influence in the next Sansa chapter.

@Bran Vras

I'm pondering the "usurper theme" you've brought up and I'm not sure what I think yet. I'm a bit thrown at the moment by the sense of Slynt as a "usurper." The need for Thorne's influence in dealing with the Watch is clear and it helps solidify the picture of Slynt as the true outsider. He is the LC candidate because he carries Tywin's endorsement but he clearly needs a "Hand" from Thorne to navigate these unfamiliar political waters. I'm mulling over ways to compare that Slynt as a usurper notion to Jon and Stannis but nothing jumps out so far. I'm more struck by how it is a bit of a parallel to Dany in Meereen and how badly she needed a Thorne like figure (in Slavers Bay familiarity, Thorne's moral character surrounds her.) I like your continuation of the Ned/Robert and Jon/Stannis theme. I'm thinking of how technically Jon may be the rightful heir to the Iron Throne and wondering how that might tie in with Robert's telling Ned he should have been King. I'm also looking at the Cat material from above and pondering how that may connect to her advice to Ned to take Robert's offer relative to Jon's decision here.

Iron Emmett pulled his battered helm off. “Was there some part of yield you could not comprehend, Lord Snow?” It was said amiably, though. Emmett was an amiable man, and he loved the song of swords. “Warrior defend me,” he groaned, “now I know how Qhorin Halfhand must have felt.”

If Iron Emmett can amiably rebuke Jon with a reference to Halfhand's death I suspect this issue haunts Jon internally far more than it haunts his public reputation at the Watch. "Turncloak" is still likely to resonate with some but I think Emmett's choice to say this publicly demonstrates that it isn't a touchy or sensitive topic among those at the training yard. It is even a bit of a backhanded compliment.

Ghost's return also brings the "warg" accusation to the forefront. Back in GoT it seemed that Ghost and the warg implication was a positive thing especially with the emergence of the walking dead. Ghost seemed to represent the Watch's supernatural counter to the Ice Zombie Hordes. Mormont even explicitly said the gods sent Jon and his wolf and he wanted them with him on the ranging. I think Jon was about a year on the Wall before the ranging so Ghost's presence would be something everyone as Castle Black during that time would be used to and also something everyone in the Watch would have heard about. In general I don't think "warg" is an accusation that plays against Jon amongst this crowd especially with Mormont's raven sitting on his shoulder.

"Bastard" is another accusation that loses impact at the Wall. Ned thinks that even a bastard can rise high in the Nights Watch. The Wall is as close to a meritocracy as we see in the series. Sure, birth matters and not just because nobility comes with training and the ability to read. The influences of Westeros still carry weight at the Wall, but not to the full extent they would in castle life or at court. The bastard Cotter Pyke commanding Eastwatch is proof of that. Jon has been at the Wall long enough to have his actions and not his birth define him amongst his brothers. Jon is also Ned Stark's bastard and being Benjen's nephew and a Stark bastard raised at Winterfell help him a great deal more than the "bastard" label hurts. Jon is certainly a more favorable candidate as Ned's bastard than the trueborn son of some random smallfolk family in the North.

So "Turncloak, warg, and bastard" are entirely true as far as accusations go, but we're given indications in this chapter that they either don't matter or in fact all help Jon as a candidate. Iron Emmett addresses the turncloak, Yarwick addresses the bastard charge with his reference to being Benjen's nephew, and Ghost and the raven speak to the warg accusation.

As an aside to another example of Jon's berserker rage, it fits with the theme of a suppressed or hidden power. (Mel will also describe Jon vaguely in those terms in Dance.) The common theme in Jon tapping into that seems to be family. Memories of Winterfell trigger it here, and maligning Ned has triggered it in the past. It fits well with warg/supernatural theme to the Stark heritage being somehow tied to the CotF or the Others, but also fits well with the hidden king identity too.

What to make of who they identified with?

Jon
Prince Aemon the Dragonknight
Ser Ryam Redwyne

Robb
Florian the Fool
the Young Dragon

Jon had wanted to be the Young Dragon but turned away from that path down the Kings Road. Robb took that path and became the Young Wolf and met the same fate Benjen cautioned Jon about regarding the Young Dragon. Florian and Aemon both have an underlying romantic tale. We don't know how Florian the Fool turns out, but we do know of Robb's marriage choice to Jeyne over his betrothed Frey. In contrast Jon has the tragic affair with Ygritte where he choses oaths over love. Both of Jon's choices were Lords Commander of the Kingsguard and both were noted as exceptional swordsmen. I don't see a lot of fertile material there, but we also know almost nothing about Florian and Ryam.

[Fire Eater]

Jon

Prince Aemon the Dragonknight

Ser Ryam Redwyne

Robb

Florian the Fool

the Young Dragon

Jon had wanted to be the Young Dragon but turned away from that path down the Kings Road. Robb took that path and became the Young Wolf and met the same fate Benjen cautioned Jon about regarding the Young Dragon. Florian and Aemon both have an underlying romantic tale. We don't know how Florian the Fool turns out, but we do know of Robb's marriage choice to Jeyne over his betrothed Frey. In contrast Jon has the tragic affair with Ygritte where he choses oaths over love. Both of Jon's choices were Lords Commander of the Kingsguard and both were noted as exceptional swordsmen. I don't see a lot of fertile material there, but we also know almost nothing about Florian and Ryam.

Prince Aemon the Dragonknight and Ser Ryman Redwyne, along wiht being LCs of the KG, were regarded as the greatest knights, or warriors of their time. Aemon the Dragonknight was said to be unrivaled as a swordsman. It could refer to Jon's potential martial abilities. Florian the Fool's story focuses on his relationship with Jonquil, and Robb's relationship with Jeyne could point to the wisdom of him marrying her, although I don't say it is the main reason for the RW. Lord Walder was looking for an excuse to get out since the BoBW, and wanted to be on the winning side.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Ever since I read aDwD and found out about BR, I've always assumed that the raven was being warged by BR, and BR is speaking through it. I am still of that opinion. I don't think Aemon could have trained the raven to say anything special, because the raven didn't live in the rookery; it lived with Mormont. It went on the ranging with Mormont, was last seen at Craster's during the mutiny IIRC, and has been MIA since.

I'll admit I never considered the possibility that Aemon could have put the raven in the kettle, but I consider it unlikely. I think BR could take care of this himself. If he warged a dog, then used it to simply bump the kettle enough to slightly displace the lid, a gap could be left large enough for the raven to enter the kettle.

If not, someone else could have been involved. We know BR entered both Bran and Jojen's dreams; he could be using that technique to acquire an ally within Castle Black (all for the good of the Watch, of course). I nominate Edd. He's been at the Wall for a long time, knows much of what is going on, and has one of the best poker faces in the Watch. He is the one who nominated Jon, after all. He wasn't part of Sam, Pyp, and Grenn's conspiracy (ETA- at least he wasn't a full player), so that accounts for their surprise. I suspect we'll never know for sure.

If fact, now that I'm done writing this, I think Edd should be our #1 suspect for the raven plant, under instructions from BR. After all, who else knew that Jon would be nominated? (ETA- sorry about the brain freeze. Of course Sam and Co. knew Jon would be nominated, but Edd doesn't appear to be working directly with them, and they were definitely surprised by the raven. Sam must have asked Edd to nominate Jon, since Edd had been at the Wall longer. But whoever put the raven in the kettle would have to know the raven would do something to help Jon, so that implies BR is communicating to someone.)

[Bran Vras]

@Lummel

I am not sad anymore. I feel even a bit mischievous, when I see that you went from

Fraudulent is too strong in my opinion, unless there is some evidence of secretly filling up the kettle with Jon's token.

to

Fraudulence is more than a valid perspective - it is a fact (even without the raven)!

Even better, you summarized very well my point.

Did the raven swing enough votes to Jon that he otherwise would not have got and that this difference alone was enough to win him the election? Everyone has to make up their own minds on that.

Indeed, nobody will ever know (except perhaps Aemon, who seems devilish clever about politics) what has been the impact of the raven. But the incident is now there for all to consider, reinterpret and fantasize about. Accusers can even talk of warging, sorcery etc.

I can mention two points of comparison.

– We are presented the losers' point of view after the Kingsmoot. The idea of invalidating an election comes to Asha. The losers of the choosing at the Wall can entertain similar thoughts.

– The legendary Night’s King is supposed to have bound his brothers to his will by strange sorceries: a hint of a fraudulent election that has entered the folklore.

As the last few posts show, we can discuss ad nauseum whether the choosing is legitimate. I am not sure what to think on the matter, and I am not sure it's important. I want to stress (for the third time, forgive me) that the important point is the possibility of perceiving the election as illegitimate. It's a part of the sub-story of the perception of Jon by his brothers.

Another noticeable issue is Jon's dismissal out of hand of Stannis’ warning about Slynt and Thorne’s complaints. It's the classical mistake of not considering dissenters' point of view. Jon will make it repeatedly in ADwD. It's up to us readers to be vigilant.

@Shadowcat@Ragnorak@Ibbison

Bloodraven alone can not explain the raven trick. GRRM pointedly tells us that there is a heavy lid on the kettle. So the raven can not have gotten in by himself. While acknowledging having lied to Mallister and Pyke, Sam denies having anything to do with the raven. Clydas is surprised by the appearance of the bird out of the kettle. Unless you bring up something else (not Edd), I can't see any explanation not involving Aemon.

I grant Ibbison that Mormont's raven did not live in the rookery. But Aemon says explicitly that he is familiar with Mormont's bird in AGoT ("He is a special bird"). They might have shared decades of life at the Wall!

I am completely open to the notion that Bloodraven skinchanges into the bird, and completely open to the existence of some cooperation between Aemon and Bloodraven, as Lady Arya’s song suggested. It’s certain that Aemon and Bloodraven share a story together.

(I have tried to examine that story in my long post above. Both Targaryens might have played a role together during the Great Council of 233, since they were sent to the Wall together shortly afterwards. They might have ruled the Watch together for some time, perhaps to this day.)

@Ragnorak

Yes, Jon appears as Mormont's heir, as the raven seems to proclaim. But consider Aemon's role in the assignation of Jon as Mormont's squire. The night before Jon was certain to join the rangers the next day and went to Aemon to plead for Sam. He made a favourable impression on the maester, and Sam was enrolled in the Watch. The impression was in fact so favourable that Jon ended up Mormont's squire. (And Aemon confirmed that he has a hand in the assignation when Jon protested to Marsh.)

So Aemon's discreet sponsoring of Jon began early.

[Mithras]

“My lord of Tarly,” he said, when his steward brought Sam to him in the Lance, where the Shadow Tower men were staying. “I am pleased to see that you’ve recovered from your ordeal. Might I offer you a cup of wine? Your lady mother is a Florent, I recall. One day I must tell you about the time I unhorsed both of your grandfathers in the same tourney. Not today, though, I know we have more pressing concerns. You come from Maester Aemon, to be sure. Does he have counsel to offer me?”

Sam took a sip of wine, and chose his words with care. “A maester chained and sworn . . . it would not be proper for him to be seen as having influenced the choice of Lord Commander . . .”

The old knight smiled. “Which is why he has not come to me himself. Yes, I quite understand, Samwell. Aemon and I are both old men, and wise in such matters. Say what you came to say.”

I think it is clear that Aemon has played a game in this election. When Sam urged him to do something, he said he is a sworn maester and cannot be involved in this. He left the rest unsaid but Sam is clever enough to automatically deduce that he himself is not a sworn maester and he can do what must be done. When Sam went to Pyke and Mallister, they automatically assumed that Sam was sent by Aemon and carrying his message. Mallister, as a highborn from Riverlands, should be no stranger to court intrigue. I think Mallister assumed that Aemon had chosen him and sent Sam to settle the matters. Both old men and wise in such matters he said. What matters are they? That should be the game of thrones. I think the bolded part also suggests that Aemon played such delicate games in the previous LC elections too.

I think the accusations and insults to Jon will be very important all throughout the ADwD. I made a collection here.

[Ragnorak]

Prince Aemon the Dragonknight and Ser Ryman Redwyne, along wiht being LCs of the KG, were regarded as the greatest knights, or warriors of their time. Aemon the Dragonknight was said to be unrivaled as a swordsman. It could refer to Jon's potential martial abilities. Florian the Fool's story focuses on his relationship with Jonquil, and Robb's relationship with Jeyne could point to the wisdom of him marrying her, although I don't say it is the main reason for the RW. Lord Walder was looking for an excuse to get out since the BoBW, and wanted to be on the winning side.

Jon's martial prowess seems likely. I don't think we get any other character training as much as he does. Even Arya when she's learning to use Needle or practicing doesn't have the same level of prominence to the training in her POV like we see in Jon's. I imagine it will matter at some point. Ryam Redwyne was said to be the best knight of his day as well (and the worst Hand but I can't see how that matters in Jon currently.) Yet again I find myself wishing we had more details of the Florian story.

The ideas about Aemon and Bloodraven working together are intriguing but I don't think we'll ever get that explicit of a reveal in that regard. There are a huge number of potential Bloodraven hints one can pickup on a reread but they are ambiguous in terms of just how "involved" he is and part of that I think involves Martin's more subtle presentation of magic in fantasy. In the end I think we're meant to pick up on the Varys/Bloodraven parallels and get a picture of Bloodraven as a more big picture and even longer term player than Varys. We don't even get explicit information about how much manipulation Varys is doing and his role is far more apparent than Bloodraven's. With that caveat, the connections dating back to the Great Council and their time together on the Wall offer potential. Aside from the family connection, Aemon and Bloodraven came to the Wall together and had history prior to that so it is fertile ground for speculation. Bloodraven had to vanish from the Wall and fake his death somehow and Aemon is a likely conspirator. If there is a connection I think speculating on Bloodraven's disappearance North of the Wall is a good place to start theorizing but that may take us too far afield from Jon.

@Ragnorak

Yes, Jon appears as Mormont's heir, as the raven seems to proclaim. But consider Aemon's role in the assignation of Jon as Mormont's squire. The night before Jon was certain to join the rangers the next day and went to Aemon to plead for Sam. He made a favourable impression on the maester, and Sam was enrolled in the Watch. The impression was in fact so favourable that Jon ended up Mormont's squire. (And Aemon confirmed that he has a hand in the assignation when Jon protested to Marsh.)

So Aemon's discreet sponsoring of Jon began early.

First, I agree completely about the heavy lid on the kettle being a clue that a human placed the raven in the kettle. Technically it isn't impossible for Bloodraven to pull it off solo but it requires the reader to invent possibilities not even hinted at in the text. Occam's razor says a human did it. I think Ibbison from Ibben's suggestion of Edd as a possible suspect for raven planting has nice potential but in the end I think Aemon still has to be the mastermind behind the raven/kettle plot. How did Edd get drafted into this? Did Sam approach him? Did Grenn or Pyp draft him? Did Aemon suggest him to put forth Jon's name? He is a brilliant choice politically to put forth Jon's name especially with the his farce of a candidacy as an opening.

We speculated early on about Mormont's interest or lack thereof in Jon. Mormont was fairly dismissive of Jon when Tyrion mentions him as part of his potential escort. His reaction seemed to indicate he had given precious little thought to Jon which makes sense given that he was a new recruit only weeks on the Wall at most. Yet it seems impossible that Benjen Stark's nephew shows up at the Wall with a direwolf like every child of Ned Stark had just gotten and a Mormont wouldn't notice. If Aemon knew about Bloodraven's warging ability (which is probable) he would have had at least suspicions about Jon and Ghost.

Jon's impression at the time was that Sam wouldn't graduate and that Thorne's training would kill or severely harm him. The narrative reads like Jon's ideas about Sam's placement are embraced, but it is unlikely that Mormont would let any harm come to Randyll Tarly's son or that his ability to read and write escaped someone like Aemon. Sam was always destined for the stewards and almost certainly destined for Aemon's assistant without Jon's intervention. So there is a manipulation of Jon taking place back then but I'm not sure that it rises to a political manipulation beyond talent farming and bonding of new recruits. The army "manipulates" recruits like this all the time and uses similar psychological manipulation to foster leadership skills in young officers. The case can be made that Aemon is actively manipulating or engineering the future leadership of the Watch but to a degree that is also part of his job. There is a qualitative difference between any earlier manipulations and any attempt to sway the outcome of this election. The candidates the Wall gets are so poor it is hard to see evidence of Aemon playing favorites or picking winners. Bloodraven rising to LC is totally believable on its face so it isn't a clear example of Aemon influencing events. Maybe there's something that can be deciphered from Lord Qorgyle?

[Bran Vras]

Jon's impression at the time was that Sam wouldn't graduate and that Thorne's training would kill or severely harm him. The narrative reads like Jon's ideas about Sam's placement are embraced, but it is unlikely that Mormont would let any harm come to Randyll Tarly's son or that his ability to read and write escaped someone like Aemon. Sam was always destined for the stewards and almost certainly destined for Aemon's assistant without Jon's intervention. So there is a manipulation of Jon taking place back then but I'm not sure that it rises to a political manipulation beyond talent farming and bonding of new recruits. The army "manipulates" recruits like this all the time and uses similar psychological manipulation to foster leadership skills in young officers. The case can be made that Aemon is actively manipulating or engineering the future leadership of the Watch but to a degree that is also part of his job. There is a qualitative difference between any earlier manipulations and any attempt to sway the outcome of this election. The candidates the Wall gets are so poor it is hard to see evidence of Aemon playing favorites or picking winners. Bloodraven rising to LC is totally believable on its face so it isn't a clear example of Aemon influencing events. Maybe there's something that can be deciphered from Lord Qorgyle?

Yes. I think the incident shows that (1) Aemon was influential over Mormont and (2) (my interpretation) he took the initiative of assigning Jon to Mormont. We are in complete agreement that there is nothing odd here, and Aemon was completely in his role. Surely both Aemon, as Bloodraven's nephew, and Mormont, coming from the island of bear-women, know a thing or two about warging. Mormont specifically asked for Jon's wolf to be part of the great ranging. So, the initial indifference to Jon was a deliberate attitude from Mormont and Aemon.

As more food for thought, here is an intriguing piece of dialogue between Stannis and Aemon that hasn't been discussed yet (except in my long post...). It's in Samwell V, just after the candidates have left Stannis. Only Aemon and Sam remain with Stannis and Melisandre.

“He has taken the black, sire,” Maester Aemon pointed out.

“I am well aware of that,” the king said. “I am aware of more than you know, Aemon Targaryen.”

The old man inclined his head. “I am only Aemon, sire. We give up our House names when we forge our maester’s chains.”

The king gave that a curt nod, as if to say he knew and did not care.

It seems to me that Stannis knows something about Aemon. My guess is that the knowledge comes from inside the family. Stannis' grandmother was Aemon's niece, and it is specified in AFfC that she knew her "uncle Maester" well. My understanding is that Stannis is aware of Aemon's skills in political manipulation, and perhaps understands already what will happen in the choosing. Why? It brings us back again to the Great Council of 233, that saw the crowning of Egg, Stannis' great grandfather, while Aemon desisted and Aerion's son, the rightful heir, was inexplicably disinherited (reread critically Mormont's account in ACoK).

Add Bloodraven's presence in the black cells of the Red Keep at the time, and that makes the crowning of Egg eerily similar to the choosing of Jon. In fact, in his last advice to Jon, Aemon compares explicitly Egg's reign to Jon's command in ADwD! (Jon II, ADwD).

“Allow me to give my lord one last piece of counsel,” the old man had said, “the same counsel that I once gave my brother when we parted for the last time. He was three-and-thirty when the Great Council chose him to mount the Iron Throne. A man grown with sons of his own, yet in some ways still a boy. Egg had an innocence to him, a sweetness we all loved. Kill the boy within you, I told him the day I took ship for the Wall. It takes a man to rule. An Aegon, not an Egg. Kill the boy and let the man be born.” The old man felt Jon’s face. “You are half the age that Egg was, and your own burden is a crueler one, I fear. You will have little joy of your command, but I think you have the strength in you to do the things that must be done. Kill the boy, Jon Snow. Winter is almost upon us. Kill the boy and let the man be born.”

It seems to me that we have a host of questions about Aemon. Why did come to the Wall? The official reason is given to us by Mormont: Aemon came on his volition because he didn't want to interfere with his brother's reign. But it could have been a punishment for his involvement in the council of 233. Or it could have been that he wished to accomplish something significant. After all, the arrival of Bloodraven and Aemon remedied to the fact that the Wall was the only part of the realm outside the control of the Targaryens. Ironically, it might have been the last part of the realm in their control as well.

@PaperWaver. Certainly both Mallister and Pyke recognize at one that Sam comes from Aemon. And Mallister has been in the Watch for more than thirty years. He has even thought of being Lord Commander twice. So Aemon's meddling in the choosing has to be familiar to him.

@Ibbison. Perhaps I should have explained why I haven't retained your idea of involving Edd. It seems to me that the story makes a point of saying that only Clydas, Sam and Aemon had access to the kettle. Of course, it's possible that Clydas feigned surprise when the raven flew out.

@Ragnorak. Turncloak, bastard, warg. Lummel said that a warg is unholy... except when the direwolf is on our side. Yes, all three terms are ambiguous, and seemed to have played in Jon's favor for the choosing. But we will see the reversal of that in ADwD.

[TheNorthernWarrior]

The NW does not get many recruits these days, their numbers are shrinking. I would guess that all recruits are sized up immediately by the First Ranger, Builder, Steward and LC and there is some discussion on who gets who before they even begin training. Considering most recruits are theives/criminals the skills that are most lacking are likely good swordsman and basic reading/writing skills. So its no small wonder why Jon and Sam get so much attention, as sons of Lords they would be skilled in both.

Clearly Jon had the makings of ranger and Sam a steward. I would also guess that Benjen asked for Jon to be a ranger before he left and likely Mormont would agree. Additionally I find it likely that Mormont would also know that Ned would want Jon as a ranger. I don't have any textual evidence of this other than a Son of Winterfell is expected to be a leader on the wall, as the abundance of Stark LC shows. So why does Mormont risk pissing off this FIrst Ranger and the Lord of Winterfell, his biggest supporter? Also even if Mormont did view Jon as his heir apparant so early on, he would have wanted him to get some Ranger seasoning. So clearly Mormont was persuaded by someone that Jon should be a steward and I very much doubt that Thorne's hate for Jon would be enough. So the likely candidate is Aemon, but I still wonder how and why?

[-Winterfellian-]

Something that is common in saints lives is the miraculous provision of food. Either making food out of apparently nothing, or being able to provide food in times of want and starvation. It is interesting that you pick up on that - Jon as foodbringer is a motive that reoccurs in ADWD, there is the apple or an onion scene, there is the inspection of the larders, there is the negotiations over the loan to buy food. Hunger and satisfaction (thinking of Arya, hungry but not for food) can be stand ins for other needs too, but I'm not sure if that is the case for Jon here. But the suggestion of Jon as provider, giving nourishment is interesting.

Nice to see your WW connection is functional once more!

I think there is something to be said in the image of a ''provisioner of food'', specially consider that almost everybody is offering nothing but more war and chaos. It takes me back to the scene in ACOK where the commoners first start to chant the names of different kings in rebellion to the Lannisters before ''King Bread'' rose and became the name chanted by everyone.

I wondered why Jon needed to go beyond the Wall to think about Stannis' offer. Is it a matter of seeing things from "where you stand"? A way to distance himself from the Watch and from all that lies south of it (and, symbolically, to free himself from the constraints that the world south of the Wall poses on him), so that he could see clearly what he wants?

I think there are very striking similarities between this scene and the scene in AGOT before Jon took his vows

Jon saddled his mare, mounted, and rode out from Castle Black, south across the moonlit night… He followed the creek for a time, listening to the icy trickle of water over rock, then cut across the fields to the kingsroad

The inner gate was open, so Jon went down the tunnel, through the Wall… On the edge of the haunted forest, where the tents had been, Jon found an oakwood stump and sat

In both instances he removes himself from CB to think. In AGOT he followed the road South up to where the Kingsroad started. This time around he chose to go North. The only constant is the Wall looming at his back. Both the North and South seemed to represent the recent past, with Jon caught in the middle with a decision at hand.

While the instance with the KR has Jon analyzing the possibilities down that road, the desolation of the former battlefield and all the spots he passed on his way out stand as mute testaments of the consequences of the path he chose last time around.

Back in AGOT the decision to take his vows was at the heart of his conflict. To take the vows meant renouncing to WF and all the other places the Kingsroad seemed to promise. Now, renouncing from the vows means again to be close to WF. But, not unlike last time, there is no place for Jon there, and certainly not at the price Stannis is demanding.

There was no place for him in Winterfell, no place in King’s Landing either. Even his own mother had not had a place for him.

You can’t be the Lord of Winterfell, you’re bastard-born, he heard Robb say again. And the stone kings were growling at him with granite tongues. You do not belong here. This is not your place.

At the end of the AGOT chapter Jon turned around and headed for CB to plead Sam’s case to Aemon, embracing CB and the NW as his new home. This time around Jon turns back to the Castle symbolically pledging himself anew to the NW and heads back to the Castle, where, in a reverse from the AGOT chapter is Sam that has marvelously contrived to make a place for him as LC. We see the fruits of Jon's decision back in that AGOT chapter (to help Sam) in Sam being in a postion, as a ''messenger'' from Master Aemon to be instrumental to Jon's ascencion as LC.

[Julian Rayne]

I just read a hypothesis on 'Race for the Iron Throne' that the Starks have a congenital bipolar disorder, with some of them falling on the manic end and others like Ned on the depressive end. I wish I had encountered that theory earlier in the re-read. Does Jon strike anyone else as manifesting both of these extremes?

I do see the depression. Could his 'berserker rage' incidents be manic episodes?

[Queen Alienor]

Since I'm in the middle of my exams and don't have much time, only a few observations:

Every morning they had trained together, since they were big enough to walk

Jon is shown training more often then any other character I can think of, yet this seems to be something he is used to from home. Maybe that's why he does it, deep down; a sense of familarity, of security, of home. Training might be something he unconciously asociates with these things. Also, he wants to learn, to get better, maybe a relict of his childhood in WF? Maybe he felt the need to prove that he had a place there, and can't stop doing so now?

Jon Snow sat up suddenly, and the three men froze at the sound of the slosh. "My lords", he said with cold curtesy.

"What are you doing here, bastard?" Thorne asked.

"Bathing. But don't let me spoil your plotting."

Sam or Aemon might have stayed down and listened, yet Jon doesn't. He stands up, makes them aware of his presence and tells them he heared them plotting. It seems very much like something Ned would have done, and on reread it seems like a lost opportunity. Not only does he not listen, he also shows them very clearly what he thinks of their plotting. It's a very Jon thing to do, and this attitude of his carries on through ADWD.

I'm quite intrigued by the discussion of how far Aemons influence on the Watch politcs really goes. He is such an interesting character, and I really hope future Dunk & Egg novels shed some light on him. I do not believe he and BR work together, at least not as closely as has been suggested. But I do think it's possible that BR influences Aemon, or that Aemon knows where BR is.