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NFL 2014 Offseason: free agent frenzy winds down


409 replies to this topic

#1 DanteGabriel

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 12:40 PM

Maybe this thread will last to the draft.

 

ETA: Link to a "Free Agency Mistakes So Far" column on SI, leading off with the Raiders still being the Raiders and offering Roger Saffold a bigger contract than what the guy they lost got, and then pulling the Saffold offer at the last minute... 

 

http://nfl.si.com/20...akes/?eref=sihp


Edited by DanteGabriel, 14 March 2014 - 12:49 PM.


#2 Littlefingers In The Air

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 01:26 PM

Well, to be fair, free agency was always gonna speed the last thread up

#3 Maithanet

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 01:27 PM

 From the other thread:

That's kind of cherry picking Witten's numbers. 

If that's declining, I'll take it. Especially with the youth of the two outside receivers and the increase of their targets. And as far as Romo, if there is a good chance that being over 30 and/or having had a prior serious injury is grounds for decline, then some of the best teams in the league better watch out! ;)

I don't feel like I'm cherrypicking on Witten at all.  In the six seasons between 2007 and 2012, Witten never had fewer than 79 catches and 942 yards, which is remarkably consistent and durable.  In 2013, he had 73 catches and 851 yards.  Still good certainly, but well below his average since becoming an elite back.  He did have 8 touchdowns, which is excellent, but touchdowns fluctuate a lot year to year.

 

And for Romo, I don't think he is going to age gracefully in the NFL.  IMO, gunslinger quarterbacks seem to go wrong much faster as their skills erode, whereas more game manager guys can continue avoiding the hardest throws and protecting the ball, even if thier arm is losing its zip. 

 

But I'll admit my bias when it comes to the subject of "Tony Romo's decline with age". 



#4 sperry

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:29 PM

Because this got lost at the end of the last thread:

 

So. Much. YES.  https://www.youtube....h?v=T8SsCqpa-Lk



#5 Rockroi

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:33 PM

And why are you certain that Romo and Witten will decline?

 

 

Witten will be 32 when the season starts; he's unlikely to recapture the 2009, '20, or 12 seasons.  His Y/R is right where its always been, but as time goes on he's likely to lose a step.

 

Romo?  He'll be 34 at the start of the season and his yards, Y/A, and Comp% were all down from 2012 (though so were INTs so that may be a promising sign).  I don't see him improving much at all.  I mean, sure he COULD but its far more likley that he will start to regress.  



#6 Manhole Eunuchsbane

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:37 PM

 DeAngelo Hall-Richard Sherman Twitter War... 

 

 http://espn.go.com/n...witter-exchange

 

 

 Some solid burns on both sides. Thought it was pretty amusing.



#7 Maithanet

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:39 PM

Because this got lost at the end of the last thread:

 

So. Much. YES.  https://www.youtube....h?v=T8SsCqpa-Lk

Brandon Weedon's 2012 game against the Redskins was one of the worst quarterbacking games I have ever seen at the pro level.  Definitely Jamarcus Russell kinda bad.  I was amazed that any Browns fans stuck with him as long as they did. 

 

The end of an error in Cleveland. 



#8 Pony Queen Jace

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:40 PM

Because this got lost at the end of the last thread:

 

So. Much. YES.  https://www.youtube....h?v=T8SsCqpa-Lk

That's so pathetic... I want to mention that he rarely had much time in the pocket on those throws (so many uninspired play-action plays where the tight end was backside blocking!), but no less than five times the ball just fluttered to the defensive back without a receiver in the frame.



#9 Mexal

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 02:53 PM

 DeAngelo Hall-Richard Sherman Twitter War... 

 

 http://espn.go.com/n...witter-exchange

 

 

 Some solid burns on both sides. Thought it was pretty amusing.

 

I think Hall made some really good points, not necessarily in the twitter exchange but what he said at the bottom. Sherman is great at what he's asked to do, but one of the biggest reasons I still think Revis is the best in the game is because he can do everything without help, no matter the side or the player. I don't think Sherman would be anywhere close to as good if he didn't have two safeties like Thomas/Chancellor controlling the middle of the field and thus allowing him to predominately force the WR to the sideline. Put him on the Bucs and I think he fails, whereas I think Revis succeeded.


Edited by Mexal, 14 March 2014 - 02:54 PM.


#10 Rockroi

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 03:12 PM

Brandon Weedon's 2012 game against the Redskins was one of the worst quarterbacking games I have ever seen at the pro level.  Definitely Jamarcus Russell kinda bad.  I was amazed that any Browns fans stuck with him as long as they did. 

 

 

Its a hard field of "Worst Weeden Performances." 

 

Don't get me wrong, 2012 v. Redskins, B-Wee looked terrible, but he DID complete 60% of his passes and had a TD v. 2 INTs.  That's practically his "Peyton Manning" game.  

 

B-Wee's career-opener (2012 v. PHily) he was, potentially, Rex-Grossman-level bad.  He went 12-35 (like 1/3 of his passes got there) 118 yards, his long was 24 yards; he threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs.  His Rat was 5.1; his QBR was 1.0. The Browns were THIS close to offering him a 6 year extension.  



#11 Maithanet

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 03:30 PM

 

Its a hard field of "Worst Weeden Performances." 

 

Don't get me wrong, 2012 v. Redskins, B-Wee looked terrible, but he DID complete 60% of his passes and had a TD v. 2 INTs.  That's practically his "Peyton Manning" game.  

 

B-Wee's career-opener (2012 v. PHily) he was, potentially, Rex-Grossman-level bad.  He went 12-35 (like 1/3 of his passes got there) 118 yards, his long was 24 yards; he threw 0 TDs and 4 INTs.  His Rat was 5.1; his QBR was 1.0. The Browns were THIS close to offering him a 6 year extension.  

I'll give guys (particularly pocket qbs) a lot of leeway in the first few starts.  Maybe they'll be decent, but don't expect it.  This was towards the end of his rookie year, and believe me, the stats lie, he was awful.  The touchdown was just because the Redskins left someone completely uncovered (with no safety deep), and the reasonable completion percentage was just checkdowns.  I have never watched a Redskins game before where I could say, as early as the second quarter, "there's no way we lose this game, the gap between the our quarterback and thiers is too big".  And keep in mind, this was Kirk Cousin's first start. 



#12 Jaime L

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 03:56 PM

If this is it for the Weed-man, we'll always have that time he got caught under the giant American Flag.   :crying:



#13 Trebla

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 03:57 PM

 

Witten will be 32 when the season starts; he's unlikely to recapture the 2009, '20, or 12 seasons.  His Y/R is right where its always been, but as time goes on he's likely to lose a step.

 

Romo?  He'll be 34 at the start of the season and his yards, Y/A, and Comp% were all down from 2012 (though so were INTs so that may be a promising sign).  I don't see him improving much at all.  I mean, sure he COULD but its far more likley that he will start to regress.  

Witten: They don't need him to recapture those numbers. From 2007 to last year, he was the best player on the offense. Better than TO, better than Romo. Even in TO's best season (2007), Witten had more catches than he did. The difference now is that Dez Bryant can beat double teams, they had a 1000 yard rusher for the 1st time since Julius Jones (lol) and they have a legitimate second receiver in Terrence Williams whose hamstrings won't snap when a strong breeze hits them.

 

Romo: I'm amused that there are top QB's who are older than Romo yet he's the one that will decline this year. His number were down last season but the offense was better because they ran the ball effectively, thanks to an improved offensive line. His window is certainly closing and it's exceedingly likely he retires having won nothing. But going by past QB's, he possibly still has 3 to 4 years left.

 

eta: Poor Weeden. I'd still take him over Blaine Gabbert, though. Weeden may have been Rex Grossman bad, but I saw Gabbert on a Thursday night game where he was Ryan Leaf bad.


Edited by Trebla, 14 March 2014 - 03:59 PM.


#14 Maithanet

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:00 PM

Romo: I'm amused that there are top QB's who are older than Romo yet he's the one that will decline this year. His number were down last season but the offense was better because they ran the ball effectively, thanks to an improved offensive line. His window is certainly closing and it's exceedingly likely he retires having won nothing. But going by past QB's, he possibly still has 3 to 4 years left.

I fully expect that Brees, Manning and Brady will, on the aggregate, decline in 2014 compared to 2013.  I would bet money on it.  However, all of those guys are a lot better than Romo too, so they have a bit more margin for error to decline while remaining well above average. 



#15 Trebla

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:10 PM

I fully expect that Brees, Manning and Brady will, on the aggregate, decline in 2014 compared to 2013.  I would bet money on it.  However, all of those guys are a lot better than Romo too, so they have a bit more margin for error to decline while remaining well above average. 

Well, we shall see. I expect him to have a typical Romo year: 3800-4000 yards, 28-32 TD's, 10-14 picks, above 60% completion. 4 games he bails them out, 2 games he wets the bed. :P



#16 Reny of Storms End

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:14 PM

So the Steelers added some D-line depth by signing Cam Thomas today from San Diego. I don't really know much about him, but at the very least he will be a big body they can rotate in. Also this should allow Steve McClendon to move to DE, were he is more comfortable at.

#17 Mexal

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:23 PM

Steve Smith to Ravens on a three year deal. Fuck.

#18 BLU-RAY

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:33 PM

I think Hall made some really good points, not necessarily in the twitter exchange but what he said at the bottom. Sherman is great at what he's asked to do, but one of the biggest reasons I still think Revis is the best in the game is because he can do everything without help, no matter the side or the player. I don't think Sherman would be anywhere close to as good if he didn't have two safeties like Thomas/Chancellor controlling the middle of the field and thus allowing him to predominately force the WR to the sideline. Put him on the Bucs and I think he fails, whereas I think Revis succeeded.

I think Hall made some really good points, not necessarily in the twitter exchange but what he said at the bottom. Sherman is great at what he's asked to do, but one of the biggest reasons I still think Revis is the best in the game is because he can do everything without help, no matter the side or the player. I don't think Sherman would be anywhere close to as good if he didn't have two safeties like Thomas/Chancellor controlling the middle of the field and thus allowing him to predominately force the WR to the sideline. Put him on the Bucs and I think he fails, whereas I think Revis succeeded.


I mostly agree with this, (I think Revis pre-injury was better than Sherman has been so far, but now he's about 6 years older at a point where age starts to matter, so we'll see). And he's 100% right about evaluating players within the context in which they exist.

With that said, one thing that has stood out to me about Sherman was that piece about his study habits last season, specifically one particular quote: (paraphrased) "Some analysts say that the best corners don't have a ton of interceptions because they don't get thrown at. No. The best corners get picks, and they do it by baiting the quarterback into throwing thwir way."

That suggests to me such a high level of mastery at the position, it's kind of nuts. But, Sherman has a very high INT rate on a low number of targets.

#19 Trebla

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:50 PM

Steve Smith to Ravens on a three year deal. Fuck.

AND The Ravens host the Panthers this year! Get ready for that blood and guts on the field! I would not doubt that is a big reason he picked them.



#20 Rockroi

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 04:52 PM

Witten: They don't need him to recapture those numbers. From 2007 to last year, he was the best player on the offense. Better than TO, better than Romo. Even in TO's best season (2007), Witten had more catches than he did. The difference now is that Dez Bryant can beat double teams, they had a 1000 yard rusher for the 1st time since Julius Jones (lol) and they have a legitimate second receiver in Terrence Williams whose hamstrings won't snap when a strong breeze hits them.

 

Romo: I'm amused that there are top QB's who are older than Romo yet he's the one that will decline this year. His number were down last season but the offense was better because they ran the ball effectively, thanks to an improved offensive line. His window is certainly closing and it's exceedingly likely he retires having won nothing. But going by past QB's, he possibly still has 3 to 4 years left.

 

 

But part of the reason Witten was so productive in 2007 was BECAUSE TO was there.  Same with Bryant.  BUt, now, Witten is not getting any younger, and those are Tight end years; they catch up fast.  I am not saying he'll suddenly be a 34 reception guy, but  its more likely a guy declines as he gets older than he improves.  I mean, unless he's Barry Bonds or Peyton Manning.  Oh, did I phrase it that way?  

 

For Romo, Maithanet said it best: Romo's decline-point is lower than Brady or Manning's; his numbers will get into that "gray" area a lot faster than those guys.  I'm not saying he does NOT Have 3-4 years left, just that those years are well within the category of "diminishing returns."   To me I think its more likely that Romo will have a WORSE 2014 than 2013 than it is that he will have a better 2014 or a close one to 2013.  Again, we'll see.  


Edited by Rockroi, 14 March 2014 - 05:03 PM.




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