Will Arya be sent to kill Sansa?

[chrisdaw]

Nice possibility. LF being made to flee rather than die I think is the sticking point.

[Northernmonkey]

I think Arya's next target will be one or both of the following people:

Shireen - If Aegon wants to rule Westeros then he needs to exterminate the Baratheon line once and for all. It's possible that Varys or Illyrio might have links to the Faceless Men, so this would be a good way to get rid of her.

Melisandre - Mel is a rogue priestess, who claims that Stannis is AA, contradicting what the Red Priests in Volantis say. I'm not sure, but I think there are links between the Red Priests and the Faceless Men, so maybe Benerro hires one of them to get rid of Mel.

[Steelborn]

I don't think Arya will complete her training and become a FM, so she will not be sent to kill anyone.

She's definitely up for something big related to the Faceless Men. Doesn't mean she'll stay with them forever though.

[juanml82]

Or...

Sansa has already been found by the Mad Mouse, and he is of uncertain loyalties. If he sells Sansa's location to Cercei, then Cercei will almost certainly make an attempt on her life, considering that Sansa's still considered a coconspirator in Joffrey's assassination. The Vale is closed off to Lannister forces, so Cercei would need to hire an assassin. She doesn't have the funds to take out a contract on Sansa Stark, princess and heiress, but she could absolutely afford a contract on Alayne Stone, bastard heir to nothing. The House of Black and White sends Arya to kill Alayne Stone, because a 14~15 year old girl would be an easy enough target for an apprentice, and Arya's Westerosi background would help her blend into the Vale. Once Arya realizes her target is Sansa, that will provide the impetus to leave the Faceless Men.

May be

It doesn't make sense. LF suddenly gets a daughter of the right age. The KM could already make a guess who that is especially when the marriage rumors come up. Cersei most certainly would not be willing to pay the FM's price. Not when she could have a random to do it. She is not going to make any sacrifice to kill someone else when she could just use Lannister money to pay someone else.

The FM are good, but they can't follow and guess every intrigue in every corner in the world

It's not logic. Remember the waif's story. An actual human being on top of money was the payment. Her father must have valued his daughter the most in the world and he had to pay with her life-an eternal life of servitude to the FM and she is no longer with her father.

ETA: Furthermore, it wasn't even a little bit of money. To kill his wife he had to pay 2/3 of his wealth and give away his daughter forever. That is sacrifice. Most people would be unwilling to do something like that when they have other options.

Isn't the waif story said to be part lie? In any event, if the FM are so expensive that they dissuade their potential customers so much, then they wouldn't be in business

If Cersei is smart enough to figure out that Alayne Stone is Sansa Stark, so are the Faceless Men. And they wouldn't send Arya to kill someone she knows.

/ thread

How are the FM going to know? That scenario describes the Mad Mouse sending word to Cersei. He wouldn't send word to the FM and Varys may or may not find out - and even if Varys finds out, why is he going to share that information with the FM?

Alayne Stone might be a tempting assassination target for someone, either to get at Littlefinger or to play the Game of Thrones at the Vale and avoid her marriage to HtH

[JamesOfHouseMurphy]

Hmm......I thought Littlefinger came from the Fingers? Did I read that wrong? Why would he go to Braavos? He's had plenty of people killed before and he barely had to lift a finger to do it.

His grandfather was from Braavos

[ARYa_Nym]

The FM are good, but they can't follow and guess every intrigue in every corner in the world

They don't need to research every intrigue. Although we see that they like to gather intel from different areas. Braavos being such a center of attraction for all different types from different areas would allow that. They would be really incompetent if they didn't research their targets first. I highly doubt they would have lasted so long and would be so valued if they went at things half assed. IRL assassins or those in charge didn't work like that. They researched their targets first.

Isn't the waif story said to be part lie? In any event, if the FM are so expensive that they dissuade their potential customers so much, then they wouldn't be in business

Not the payment. It also isn't the only case where they asked for something else besides money. We actually don't have a case of them simply asking for a bit of money like a mercenary group would.

Well no. Just because LF said that the FM were too high to get Dany doesn't mean someone else was unwilling to pay the price to have an insurance man killed. Some people are going to be willing to pay the price. Some it's more beneficial to have a FM. Like with Euron's case where he can't be known as a kinslayer. That wouldn't be the case for Jon or Sansa. Whoever would want them dead wouldn't need the death to look natural.

[JamesOfHouseMurphy]

One thing that is weird about FM logic is that to get a faceless man to give the gift you must sacrifice something but Jaqen Hgar gave the gift to people for Arya because she saved him Rorge and biter and took three deaths from him of many faces, therefore everyone in Westeros who saves someones life is owed a kill from an FM

[James Arryn]

Even if she were accidentally sent to kill Sansa due to other name, don't their rules preclude killing someone you personally know? So as soon as she recognized Sansa, the contract would be void.

[ARYa_Nym]

Even if she were accidentally sent to kill Sansa due to other name, don't their rules preclude killing someone you personally know? So as soon as she recognized Sansa, the contract would be void.

I don't think they would send her on purpose. However, in her latest chapter:

It's possible that she was meant to stage a murder for the FM. That Raff happened to be there allowed her to use the situation to kill someone she knew.

ETA: But that is a different scenario. They can potentially realize who Sansa is already and as I said it's an area where Arya has family and thus could compromise her loyalty so I don't see it likely they would send her there at all.

[Darksnider05]

One thing that is weird about FM logic is that to get a faceless man to give the gift you must sacrifice something but Jaqen Hgar gave the gift to people for Arya because she saved him Rorge and biter and took three deaths from him of many faces, therefore everyone in Westeros who saves someones life is owed a kill from an FM

This breaks down the moment the FM isn't in the equation.

[JamesOfHouseMurphy]

This breaks down the moment the FM isn't in the equation.

?? explain

[The Mother of The Others]

I don't think Jaken cares what Biter does from now on. He's not on the hook for the lives Biter takes a year later, that's Biter's own damnation for Biter to worry about or not. Jaken was only beholden to Arya for the incident that directly involved him. Once those scales were balanced with the 3 lives, H'gar was free from any ongoing worries about the scales of life and death needing further balancing due to the actions of the criminals Arya set loose. It was a personal responsibility code. Jaquen isn't responsible for all the later ripples of change Arya's actions caused.

[juanml82]

They don't need to research every intrigue. Although we see that they like to gather intel from different areas. Braavos being such a center of attraction for all different types from different areas would allow that. They would be really incompetent if they didn't research their targets first. I highly doubt they would have lasted so long and would be so valued if they went at things half assed. IRL assassins or those in charge didn't work like that. They researched their targets first.

They should have some file on Peter Baelish and, if they get to it, they might distrust Alayne' story. But they aren't going to be doing intel of the Vale from Braavos. Arya had to follow the insurance man before killing him. And they don't get to choose their targets either.

So, if they receive a contract on Alayne Stone, they would probably give the assigned hitman their data on Baelish, they will share their doubts about Alayne's origins and the FM assigned to the contract will be off to do his own intelligence - intelligence which is meant to design the way to kill her, not to unmask her, because who Alayne really is it's not the FM's business.

Even if she were accidentally sent to kill Sansa due to other name, don't their rules preclude killing someone you personally know? So as soon as she recognized Sansa, the contract would be void.

Not the contract, Arya's assignment. And since she's still an apprentice, it maybe that they send her to help a fully fledged FM and she goes as his helper to do more on the job training.

[ARYa_Nym]

They should have some file on Peter Baelish and, if they get to it, they might distrust Alayne' story. But they aren't going to be doing intel of the Vale from Braavos. Arya had to follow the insurance man before killing him. And they don't get to choose their targets either.

So, if they receive a contract on Alayne Stone, they would probably give the assigned hitman their data on Baelish, they will share their doubts about Alayne's origins and the FM assigned to the contract will be off to do his own intelligence - intelligence which is meant to design the way to kill her, not to unmask her, because who Alayne really is it's not the FM's business.

Arya had to follow the insurance man but as I said do you think the KM didn't already know exactly who it was she was following? Do you think he didn't know more than she did? A little 11 year old vs. a seasoned grown man? He didn't confirm what she asked about the insurance man but I'm sure he knew. She is only an acolyte. She's not even a FM. She's a child and she's not the one in charge. She doesn't even know how many FM there are or the ins and out of the chain of their command. Just because she's in the dark doesn't mean he is. He keeps her on a need to know basis.

ETA: Arya following him was probably more so a learning experience for her and a test. He wanted to see if she would reach the right conclusions and was testing her observation skills. He would have to already know the target to test how well she's doing in her training. When talking about the insurance man the KM knew details about the insurance man. The way he works and his business.

It's the way a professional organization would work. Let's say IRL someone is sent to close a deal. The boss would already know who or what they're dealing with and would send the right person who could get the job done. Who could get those in question to respond well and achieve what is wanted. Sure the one sent would have to prep themselves but that doesn't mean the boss who gave them the assignment didn't already know.

So, if they receive a contract on Alayne Stone, they would probably give the assigned hitman their data on Baelish, they will share their doubts about Alayne's origins and the FM assigned to the contract will be off to do his own intelligence - intelligence which is meant to design the way to kill her, not to unmask her, because who Alayne really is it's not the FM's business.

LF would not be the target so they would get info on the target as well as those connected to her. Since she's an acolyte they would definitely need to get info on the situation to see if it is even a scenario where she could have the opportunity to get the job done. I'm sure the KM already researched the insurance man and gave her an identity that could help her in that situation. He didn't give her a pretty face or have her be some upscale girl because he would have already known about the target and would have decided what is best.

[juanml82]

Arya had to follow the insurance man but as I said do you think the KM didn't already know exactly who it was she was following? Do you think he didn't know more than she did? A little 11 year old vs. a seasoned grown man? He didn't confirm what she asked about the insurance man but I'm sure he knew. She is only an acolyte. She's not even a FM. She's a child and she's not the one in charge. She doesn't even know how many FM there are or the ins and out of the chain of their command. Just because she's in the dark doesn't mean he is. He keeps her on a need to know basis.

ETA: Arya following him was probably more so a learning experience for her and a test. He wanted to see if she would reach the right conclusions and was testing her observation skills. He would have to already know the target to test how well she's doing in her training. When talking about the insurance man the KM knew details about the insurance man. The way he works and his business.

It's the way a professional organization would work. Let's say IRL someone is sent to close a deal. The boss would already know who or what they're dealing with and would send the right person who could get the job done. Who could get those in question to respond well and achieve what is wanted. Sure the one sent would have to prep themselves but that doesn't mean the boss who gave them the assignment didn't already know.

LF would not be the target so they would get info on the target as well as those connected to her. Since she's an acolyte they would definitely need to get info on the situation to see if it is even a scenario where she could have the opportunity to get the job done. I'm sure the KM already researched the insurance man and gave her an identity that could help her in that situation. He didn't give her a pretty face or have her be some upscale girl because he would have already known about the target and would have decided what is best.

True, but even the FM don't play with the "nofog" cheat turned on. Assuming they get a contract on Alayne Stone, there is a lot less information they can get on her from Braavos than from the insurance man, who already lived at Braavos.

They'll have whatever intel the FM, and just maybe the IB, has on Baelish. They will be unable to track Alayne's purported mother, but these are the days without Linkedin, so that's to be expected. They will not be able to find out, from Braavos, which is the sept she was (supposedly) raised at, and that's also expected. Maybe they'll doubt her backstory but, from Braavos, they wouldn't have been able to confirm it anyways. The daughter of a Braavosi merchant prince? Unlikely, but what's the big deal? That's an embellishment because it sounds better than "some random cabin girl who slept with Baelish some fifteen years ago".

So, to get more intel on her, they will need to travel to the Vale. And, since they have to send an agent to the Vale, that agent might as well be the one to kill her.

[Lost Melnibonean]

There will be a reckoning between the sisters. I think Arya will be revolted and Sansa will be ashamed. I believe Arya will be tempted to whack her sister but she will stay her hand. Petyr though, he's a goner.

[ARYa_Nym]

True, but even the FM don't play with the "nofog" cheat turned on. Assuming they get a contract on Alayne Stone, there is a lot less information they can get on her from Braavos than from the insurance man, who already lived at Braavos.

They'll have whatever intel the FM, and just maybe the IB, has on Baelish. They will be unable to track Alayne's purported mother, but these are the days without Linkedin, so that's to be expected. They will not be able to find out, from Braavos, which is the sept she was (supposedly) raised at, and that's also expected. Maybe they'll doubt her backstory but, from Braavos, they wouldn't have been able to confirm it anyways. The daughter of a Braavosi merchant prince? Unlikely, but what's the big deal? That's an embellishment because it sounds better than "some random cabin girl who slept with Baelish some fifteen years ago".

So, to get more intel on her, they will need to travel to the Vale. And, since they have to send an agent to the Vale, that agent might as well be the one to kill her.

A girl of Sansa's age with no known mother and all of a sudden LF is her father when there's no record of a daughter before is suspicious. This is already going to be the widespread information soon and even more so when the marriage to Harry is announced. Your average person might know this.

They might no be certain but it's enough to not want Arya to be sent. As I also said Arya has family there. She already has shown herself unable to put aside personal interest. Sending her to where her family is located could be the nail in the coffin. The KM doesn't strike me as stupid. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he knows that Arya has been "married" or that he'll learn about happens to Jon before her. He's not going to tell her. He wants her to not have personal conflict because it interferes with the job so they should not send her to areas like the Vale, WF, or the Riverlands.

I don't think it not being in Braavos means much. The FM aren't a local group. Jaqen already knew ahead of time where he needed to go and what he needed to do to get that info the FM wanted a an example even though the environment was all the way in Westeros.

I've also said no one is going to be willing to pay the price for Alayne and she is one where it makes sense to have some random kill her or a sellsword as opposed to Balon where a FM made sense.

[JamesOfHouseMurphy]

True, but even the FM don't play with the "nofog" cheat turned on. Assuming they get a contract on Alayne Stone, there is a lot less information they can get on her from Braavos than from the insurance man, who already lived at Braavos.

They'll have whatever intel the FM, and just maybe the IB, has on Baelish. They will be unable to track Alayne's purported mother, but these are the days without Linkedin, so that's to be expected. They will not be able to find out, from Braavos, which is the sept she was (supposedly) raised at, and that's also expected. Maybe they'll doubt her backstory but, from Braavos, they wouldn't have been able to confirm it anyways. The daughter of a Braavosi merchant prince? Unlikely, but what's the big deal? That's an embellishment because it sounds better than "some random cabin girl who slept with Baelish some fifteen years ago".

So, to get more intel on her, they will need to travel to the Vale. And, since they have to send an agent to the Vale, that agent might as well be the one to kill her.

But haven't you noticed how the KM knows things he couldn't know without outside help, for example he knew that Arya was Arya of house Stark before she told him, im wondering if the faceless men have there own version of Melisandres fires, the obsidian candle or the weirwoods to see into the future, past and many miles away

[Hos the Hostage]

I don't think Sansa or Alayne Stone will be a target for Arya.

Why not Sansa: Arya knows her, and FM would not risk it.

Why not Alayne: Alayne is not important enough, nor protected heavily (all you need is to add three pinches of sweetsleep to some lemon cakes) for someone to pay the facelessmen for. Who would want her dead? Iron Bank need Baelish, killing his newly-found daughter won't help much. (Kidnapping her might). Cersei does not have enough money to pay the FM. Roose Bolton doesn't know about Alayne and is too busy with the North. Tyrells will send some sellsword or some trusted agent, not an FM, and I don't think Tyrells would want Sansa/Alayne dead (maybe is she is married to Aegon, perhaps..).

I think that the only person in the seven kingdoms who has enough money to hire FM is Petyr Baelish. Who would he want to kill?

- Harry Hardyng, after his marriage to Sansa (but LF can arrange it himself. Like the purple wedding)

- (f)Aegon VI : I will put my silver here

- Jon Snow (if GNC becomes real or R+L=J comes out)

Arya knows Jon. but she could be sent to kill Aegon or Harry.

My other guess is Melisandre. FM worship the dead, Mel is some kinda undead. Thoros raises the dead, insulting the God of Death. Mel is a likely candidate, since the new lord Sunglass is in the free cities and maybe other lords who lost their kin due to mel's religious fanatism.

[juanml82]

A girl of Sansa's age with no known mother and all of a sudden LF is her father when there's no record of a daughter before is suspicious. This is already going to be the widespread information soon and even more so when the marriage to Harry is announced. Your average person might know this.

They might no be certain but it's enough to not want Arya to be sent. As I also said Arya has family there. She already has shown herself unable to put aside personal interest. Sending her to where her family is located could be the nail in the coffin. The KM doesn't strike me as stupid. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he knows that Arya has been "married" or that he'll learn about happens to Jon before her. He's not going to tell her. He wants her to not have personal conflict because it interferes with the job so they should not send her to areas like the Vale, WF, or the Riverlands.

I don't think it not being in Braavos means much. The FM aren't a local group. Jaqen already knew ahead of time where he needed to go and what he needed to do to get that info the FM wanted a an example even though the environment was all the way in Westeros.

I've also said no one is going to be willing to pay the price for Alayne and she is one where it makes sense to have some random kill her or a sellsword as opposed to Balon where a FM made sense.

It hasn't come up at King's Landing yet. True, they have Qyburn as master of whispers instead of Varys, but Alayne's existence should be common background data by now.

And here lies the problem for the FM: as an intelligence organization, they probably care for Westeros as much as for the Summer Islands, or Volantis. Heck, probably they currently care more about Volantis thanks to the war in Slaver's Bay. So, do they have the analysts in place to wonder about Baelish's newly found daughter? How knowledgeable of Westeros are those analysts? How many hours per day they work? Would they know that Alayne is dying her hair? Would they even know what color is Alayne's hair before hand? Would they connect the dots and consider the hypothesis that Petyr Baelish newly found bastard appeared about a month or so after Sansa Stark went missing, that the bastard is only one year older, and that Baelish might be hiding Sansa Stark in plain sight for whatever purposes?

Or would the hitherto un-introduced Westerosi analyst write "Not enough information on Baelish bastard. Origins unverifiable. Something is likely to be odd" in some report to be stored somewhere before moving to more important matters? And, should anyone hire the FM to kill Alayne, that small piece of information will be given to the operative, trusting the FM in charge of killing her to fill in the blanks?

I don't think they'll send Arya alone to Westeros. So far her assignments were solo, but they were also in Braavos, where they could (and likely had) watch her.

Jaqen got thrown into the black cells so, unless that was part of his plan, it doesn't look like his mission was flawless at all

As for paying the price for Alayne, we could say the same for the insurance man. Besides, whatever the price is, it can very well be lower than the profits of marrying into the Lord of the Vale - which might require disposing of a bastard without anyone even knowing she was murdered.

But haven't you noticed how the KM knows things he couldn't know without outside help, for example he knew that Arya was Arya of house Stark before she told him, im wondering if the faceless men have there own version of Melisandres fires, the obsidian candle or the weirwoods to see into the future, past and many miles away

Or maybe Jaqen send word. We don't really know - this world combines actual magic with trickery, as Melissandre demonstrates.