The Pink Letter revisited

[Nozlym]

a great post on the subject over at reddit that i thought people might be interested in

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3c99ri/spoilers_all_connecting_the_dots_on_lady_dustin/

edit: for those who cant click the link

credit to ser_dunk_the_lunk

1. 
   

   Lady Dustin doesn't have any children.

   
   
   
2. 
   

   The closest thing she ever had to a son was Domeric Bolton, a clever young boy with a gift for riding who served her as a page for four years.

   
   
   
3. 
   

   She grew very fond of him, and still brags about him.

   
   
   
4. 
   

   She believes that Ramsay killed him - the boy who was like a son to her.

   
   
   
5. 
   

   She is known for nursing grievances.

   
   
   
6. 
   

   She is extraordinarily interested in the Winterfell crypts, and convinced Theon to show them to her.

   
   
   
7. 
   

   Besides Lady Dustin, her men, and Theon, the only other people in Winterfell familiar with the crypts were Big Walder and Little Walder, who had been down there with Rickon.

   
   
   
8. 
   

   Big Walder is a clever young boy with a gift for riding - and lofty ambitions.

   
   
   
9. 
   

   Lady Dustin recently gifted him a horse.

   
   
   
10. 
    

    He has since murdered Little Walder, who knew about the crypts and was growing close to Ramsay.

    
    
    
11. 
    

    Lady Dustin has a soft spot for "Arya", and did everything she could to keep her safe from Ramsay before she was locked away.

    
    
    
12. 
    

    Mance has adopted the name Abel while on his undercover mission to rescue "Arya", after the wildling leader who disguised himself as a bard and hid in the crypts of Winterfell.

    
    
    
13. 
    

    Theon cautioned Lady Dustin that she would need "a warm cloak" to head down to the crypts.

    
    
    
14. 
    

    The pink letter states that Mance is now wearing "a warm cloak".

    
    
    
15. 
    

    The squires of House Dustin and House Ryswell have been building snowmen on the walls of Winterfell in the forms of Lord Manderly, Lady Dustin, Lord Stout, and Whoresbane Umber. They are on the taller wall, visible from outside Winterfell.

    
    
    
16. 
    

    The pink letter states that Stannis's friends can be seen on the walls of Winterfell, and exhorts the reader to come see them.

    
    
    
17. 
    

    Lady Dustin has been watching the road just north of Moat Cailin very closely in order to intercept Ned Stark's bones.

    
    
    
18. 
    

    There was an unbroken Bolton seal abandoned just north of Moat Cailin:

    
    
    
    

    
    

    He gestured at the parchment. "Break the seal. Read the words. That is a safe conduct, written in Lord Ramsay’s own hand."

    
    

    ...

    
    

    Along the rotting-plank road, wooden stakes were driven deep into the boggy ground; there the corpses festered, red and dripping. Sixty-three, he knew, there are sixty-three of them. One was short half an arm. Another had a parchment shoved between its teeth, its wax seal still unbroken.

    
    

    
    

    
    
    
    
    
19. 
    

    Lady Dustin distrusts maesters, preferring to write and send her own letters.

    
    
    

TL;DR: Lady Dustin worked with Mance to free "Arya" and is hiding him in the crypts below Winterfell. She worked with him to send the pink letter as a coded message that identifies which of the lords within Winterfell are secretly loyal to Stannis and conspiring against the Boltons.

EDIT: Oh, and Big Walder is somehow a part of this. I don't think it's a coincidence that after growing closer to Lady Dustin, he kills the only person who could disrupt the Mance-in-the-crypts plan.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

NO!

Just kidding I personally have a new fave pink letter theory. Until proven right or left Ill still be in the Ramsay wrote the letter boat. But have my fingers crossed for this one.

[falcotron]

Lady Dustin worked with Mance to free "Arya" and is hiding him in the crypts below Winterfell. She worked with him to send the pink letter as a coded message that identifies which of the lords within Winterfell are secretly loyal to Stannis and conspiring against the Boltons.

Lady Dustin is an interesting idea. But what is the code? For example, which part of it can be decoded to mean that, e.g., Lady Dustin, or Wylas Manderly, is secretly loyal to Stannis? More importantly, how did she expect Jon, or anyone else, to know the code? And why, if she expected Jon to know the code, did he appear not to get it?

[Lord Reaper oOo]

Interesting.

[jurble]

I saw this on Reddit, and it's the first Pink Letter theory that has ever convinced me.

[Tyrus Martell]

My favourite ever Pink Letter Theory, just read this myself on Reddit. It just fits, no crazy leaps in logic, just careful analysis of the text and nicely explained.

[Ser Eric]

This makes no sense. At all.

[Ser Quork]

I like this. There are parts that are great connections, plus I've always suspect Lady Dustin of being part of the GNC.

Of course, it's had a monumental backfire in FTW, if true. And that makes me think it just might be because GRRM.

[Mithras]

Why did they send a coded message?

This is where this theory fails because there can be no reasonable answer to that.

[Other_Jon33]

Maybe but the fact that Stannis's Army gets their ass beat in the show, and GRRM continuously stating that the show and the books end up in the same place, let's me think the pink letter is actually real.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

I must admit, the parallel between "To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber" and "Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard" is compelling as hell. However.

Why on Earth would the addressee of the pink letter ever look for code or a hidden message? It seems straightforward enough. And seriously inflammatory to boot. In a followup reddit comment, the author assumes Theon would have to be a key for the cipher, but that's relying on a shitload of good luck. As things actually went down, Lord Snow got the letter, saw red, decided to march south, the Ides of Marsh and all hell broke out. And Stannis, who's in possession of Theon, doesn't seem to entertain a thought of sending him to Castle Black, and why would he?

[Consigliere]

This is a pretty decent theory but as others have pointed out: it is the 'letter was in code' part where it falls apart. What is the point of sending a coded message if the recipient does not know how to decipher said code?

One of the more 'out there' speculation that I have seen in the past is that the letter was written by one or more northern lords still loyal to the Starks (perhaps involving Mance as well) and was not coded but intentionally provactive to force Jon into marching to Winterfell so that the northern lords could crown him KiTN in accordance with Robb's will.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I've seen elsewhere, in a different pink letter theory that also posits the letter is in code, that its plaintext was meant to be provoke Jon into riding south, but its hidden message was intended for Melisandre, who had Daven Seaworth reading Jon's mail, hence why the wax seal was just a pink smear when Jon got it.

This theory is as compelling as any I've seen. The presence of the spare Bolton seal was a great catch.

Man, I want to read Winds of Winter already.

[RedShirt47]

Interesting idea. It certainly has more going for it than either Stannis or Mance writing the letter. I still think Ramsey is most likely the author of the Pink Letter but this idea certainly has me intrigued.

Two problems I have with it though:
1. The code is too cryptic to be intuitively decyphered, especially the "warm cloak".
2. What is Lady Dustin's goal? Surely she can't expect the Night's Watch or Wildlings to march south?

I think the "code" could be hints / foreshadowing by GRRM to the reader letting them know who is involved in the GNC.

[three-eyed monkey]

I'm a Stannis-wrote-the-pink-letter guy, but I'll admit that this theory is quite credible. Far more cedible than Ramsay, or Mance acting alone. In fact there is a lot here that I flat out agree with. Like a lot of readers, I'm totally on board with Lady Dustin being anti-Bolton, I agree that Big Walder is making a play for the soon to be vacant title of Lord of the Crossing, I agree that the snowmen equal Snow Men, and I think there's a good chance Mance escaped the hall to hide in the crypts once it all went down.

The most compelling thing about this theory is the "come see your friends upon the walls" part, which would inform Jon of his allies within Winterfell. But the biggest question I'd have about the theory is, why code the letter?

I'm not fully convinced, but it has definitely given me pause for thought.

[Ser Daegon]

I haven't read a single Pink Letter theory that really makes much sense to me, other than Ramsey wrote and sent the letter with information that was partly lies, partly boastful.

Most of the "Stannis Wrote the Pink Letter," etc... they just seem like readers' wishful thinking to me.

As far as Stannis' possible death... We don't actually know for sure that he even died in the show, so yes, in the book he may have faked his death to lure the Boltons into a trap.

But I do believe that Ramsey wrote the letter. Nothing else is remotely logical.

[Ser Eric]

How would Lady Dustin know Mance was? Why would they even interact or take notice of each other?

What is the motive in sending a letter to Casltle Back?

What is the point in coding the letter?

All very big questions even ignoring certain assumption made in the OP.

Ramsay still makes the most sense.

[Lost Melnibonean]

OP: Since writing a code in a way Jon couldn't understand doesn't make any sense, you should edit to include the bit about Melisandre being the intended recipient as suggested by Grody Brody, above.

[pigpiginsunspear]

Good theory. Especially liked the snowmen idea. Unclear why else they'd be making snowmen??

Still think it was Ramsay though...

[Ser Patroclo]

I must admit, the parallel between "To command the snowy sentinels on the walls, the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber" and "Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard" is compelling as hell. However.

Why on Earth would the addressee of the pink letter ever look for code or a hidden message? It seems straightforward enough. And seriously inflammatory to boot. In a followup reddit comment, the author assumes Theon would have to be a key for the cipher, but that's relying on a shitload of good luck. As things actually went down, Lord Snow got the letter, saw red, decided to march south, the Ides of Marsh and all hell broke out. And Stannis, who's in possession of Theon, doesn't seem to entertain a thought of sending him to Castle Black, and why would he?

I think that this is more of a hint about the GNC left by GRRM than a code that must be deciphered by Jon Snow.