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Siege on Storm's end an act of stupidity or something more


devilish

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In Robert's rebellion the kingdom broke in three groups. The Greyjoys and Lannisters took a neutral stance. The Baratheons, the Tullys, the Arryns and the Starks rebelled while the Martells and the Tyrells defended the king. The Martells state that they did so out of duty. Having said that Aerys did remind them that Elia was in his hands and if the rebels won that Elia and her children would have been in grave danger.

 

The only ones doing it out of duty were the Tyrells. They provided them with a substantial amount of soldiers and they managed to give Robert B's his first and only defeat. That defeat would have been more than enough to win the war if only the hand the king was a bit more ruthless. After that battle, Connington was sacked, Aerys appointed Chelsted and the Tyrells went on sieging Storm's end. 

 

Which makes me wonder. Mace may not be the greatest general around but surely he understood that his troops were better deployed elsewhere. Robert wasn't in Storm's end, much of his forces were elsewhere and Robert was known for not having a great relationship with his brothers (especially Stannis). Also Mace could seek council to Tarly, who was probably the finest general around at the time. Why insist on sieging such irrelevant place instead of marching to war against the rebels and cutting any chances for them to organize themselves? Which makes me wonder, was it the Tyrells plan all along.

 

Let first the siege from a Tyrell point of view

 

Robert wins - Siege is lost

 

We know how that ended

 

Rhaegar wins - Siege is lost

 

The Tyrells would have been one of the very few big families to answer to the Targs call. Surely that would keep them away from Aerys wrath. If not, well, the rebels and neutrals will be worse off and the Tyrells armies are largely intact

 

Robert wins - Siege is won

 

The Tyrells would demand a better treatment than the other rebels in exchange of Robert's brothers who are now in Tyrell custody. Considering that the Tyrells hasn't really killed anyone of note they should be forgiven and kept warden of the reach

 

Rhaegar wins - Siege is won

 

Aerys would end up with Stannis and Renly at his feet, with the Tyrells thanked for their efforts

 

I believe that Mace took the war seriously at first. Why shouldn't he? The Targs had a history of thanking those who served them well and with Mace having so many children a royal match up was possible. Having said that, after Connington's dismissal they became disillusioned as a relative unknown took his place. Hence they decided to siege Storms end which would leave the Tyrell's army and the relationship with the two factions largely intact.

 

What do you think?

 

 

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Robert wins - Siege is won

 

The Tyrells would demand a better treatment than the other rebels in exchange of Robert's brothers who are now in Tyrell custody. Considering that the Tyrells hasn't really killed anyone of note they should be forgiven and kept warden of the reach

 

I think this is probably the worst case scenario because Robert would be pissed if Mace demanded better treatment. Robert might have continued the war or demanded that Mace take the black. So the Tyrells really had no interest in taking Storm's End at all.

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Yeah, Mace was hedging his bets. He was not connected to the Southron ambitions alliance and was not shrewd enough to wait when Aerys called for his banners. When he had already fought a few battles he was committed and could not switch sides easily. It's an interesting what-if scenario if Mace does not marry Alerie Hightower but is instead approached by Hoster to marry Lysa, after Jaime joins the kingsguard but before the rebellion begins.

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I think Mace was ordered by Aerys or one of his earlier, inept Hands to seize Storm's End. 

 

He was left there because either Aerys or his hands considered Mace to be inept.

 

They did not believe they needed his troops because Aerys and his hands consistently underestimated Robert, or lost to him on the field when they believed they could win.

 

90% of battles lost can be brought back to underestimating your opponent.  It happens all the time, every day. 

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I know right, how many reach men are there an how many men does it take to seige storms end garrison force? Stannis had a number under 10k did he not?

My guess or assumption that satisfies me is that perhaps the reach/aerys feared the IB and Lannisters could assist the rebels so having the entire reach army between highgarden and kings landing would act as a counter strike or deterrent?
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Yeah, Mace was hedging his bets. He was not connected to the Southron ambitions alliance and was not shrewd enough to wait when Aerys called for his banners. When he had already fought a few battles he was committed and could not switch sides easily. It's an interesting what-if scenario if Mace does not marry Alerie Hightower but is instead approached by Hoster to marry Lysa, after Jaime joins the kingsguard but before the rebellion begins.

 

I think the timeline doesn't work for a Mace-Lysa alliance marriage. Look at how old Willas and Garlan are. If Willas was born between 270 and 276 AC, and the Rebellion is 282-283, he could have been almost old enough to be a squire.

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The capture and holding of castles and fortress towns was the cornerstone of medieval warfare and the capture of Storm's End creates loyal power projection over the Stormlands, Robert's personal power base inhibiting his ability to raise additional troops and finances, it also damages his prestige greatly, Storm's End has never been taken and this rebel cannot even hold onto one of the greatest castles in the realm etc. Marching several thousand more men into the Riverlands won't necessarily accomplish anything. If the royalist forces outnumber the rebels massively they can just refuse to give battle, there are three adjoining regions in open rebellion bringing the isolated Stormlands back in line makes sense. 

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Maybe im missing the point but I don't think the move Mace made was as stupid as everyone thinks.

first off I think we have to establish (as far as I remember) the person who said Mace is stupid is Olenna. but she thinks everyone is dumb. Mace in mind is probably a decent commander, nothing special but definitely not dumb.

 

that being said I would imagine it went like this. Aerys tells Mace to secure storms end. reason one. it keeps stannis baratheon at bay who is arguably the best commander in Westeros. paired with Robert that is a real threatening duo.

reason two. people under estimate how bad it is to lose your home base even for a moment. even if you win it back people will say we can never trust you again. reading through ASOIAF you see numerous times that losing battles on your home field is a horrible thing to do. reason three. if the castle is taken they will have Stannis and his family which will pretty much end the war because Robert would not let his family die. I just don't get that feel from either him or Ned to press on when there are family members captured. reason four. it will disperse Roberts army, Robert will have to send men and most likely himself to save his castle. people acting in the moment are not as strong as people with a plan. Mace will have a nice strong castle to fight Robert who has an army of men that just marched for days and days, easy win. aslo Robert being gone will free up Randyll and Rhaegar to attack Ned and Jon Arryn. we know that Randyll and Rhaegar are special sort of commanders and we have never heard anything great about Ned and Jon. (other than Ned lifting the siege but someone even says Mace basically gave up before Ned even showed up because he knew they lost). this paragraph isn't so structured sorry. but basically I don't think it was stupid. yes I think it can be argued there are better plans but you can make arguments like that all the time that why did this character do X he should have done Y. I mean why did Ned tell Cersei he was gonna expose her that was dumbest thing of all time. but that's the thing people make mistakes, GRRM just has to make it a believable mistake.

 

also Trigger Warning is totally right

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Taking Storms End would be a massive morale blow not to mention make Stannis and Renly hostages.And did the King not underestimate the threat the rebellion posed until after the Trident?Also as stated they out numbered the rebels so they figured they didn't need the extra men.
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 Aerys tells Mace to secure storms end. reason one. it keeps stannis baratheon at bay who is arguably the best commander in Westeros.

 

Stannis was still a teenager and had fought in no battles (that we know of) at this time.

 

I know this might upset the Stannis fans, but I don't think Aerys was worried about the 'the best commander in Westeros'.

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Stannis was still a teenager and had fought in no battles (that we know of) at this time.

 

I know this might upset the Stannis fans, but I don't think Aerys was worried about the 'the best commander in Westeros'.

Ah I'm not upset at all. 

You see where Aerys' judgement took him.

Stannis survived on rats and boot leather but held the castle, and that's a fact. Not an opinion. 

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Ah I'm not upset at all. 

You see where Aerys' judgement took him.

Stannis survived on rats and boot leather but held the castle, and that's a fact. Not an opinion. 

 

Which really has shitall to do with his strategic or tactical  capabilities as a commander. Inspiring loyalty is a great thing, but seriously he's 17. He's a complete afterthought except as a hostage.

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Whether Mace is on the winning or losing side, as long as he has an army at his back he should come out OK in the post-war peace. Ideally, a Targ victory would be best, but Robert is known for raising his foes back up after they bend the knee. I still think Mace is a dolt so none of this was occupying his mind at the time.

 

The bigger failure was either Aerys or Rhaegar who should have known that the war was going to be won or lost at the Trident and therefore should have left only a minimal presence at Storm's End and marched every last sword they could muster up the King's Road.

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Besides what's been said so far, the Tyrells expected to gain something from the war besides prestige and the royal favour. Among the rebels, the Reach has a long border with the Stormlands, and after the war it wouldn't be unprecedented to receive some strategical frontier castles and lands. That would be easier to get if they where the ones to submit the Stormlands by wining the siege of Storm's End.

 

Also, a siege is a much more pleasant prospect than marching accross a continent on the hant of a rebel army.

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