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US Election: It's a post-TrumpDay world


TrackerNeil

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I don't think the 'Bernie or Bust' crowd will largely affect anything at the end, because I fully expect Sanders to say loudly and often that he wants his supporters to support Clinton.  He's on record several times, including just the other day, saying preventing a Trump presidency is going to be his main objective.  The 'Bernie or Bust' gang will have to go against their leader's public pleas if they want to vote Trump in, or even if they want to just stay home.  This election will be a landslide.

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42 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

I do think the Sanders folks will get with the game plan in the end. It will really help if Sanders encourages them to do so for the greater good--that is what he's running on, after all. 

That's what I say to the few Bernie-or-Busters I know, but those folks are really in a cult of personality and, I think, I have little interest in politics. As Kalbear says, they think they  can somehow improve the system by smashing it to bits and ignoring the human cost.

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Also, I think that there will actually be some excitement about having a woman president.  That is diminished by the fact that Clinton came so close in '08 (she definitely would have won the general had she edged Obama), but nonetheless I think as election day gets closer that will help with a potential enthusiasm problem for Hilary.

http://qz.com/624346/america-loves-women-like-hillary-clinton-as-long-as-theyre-not-asking-for-a-promotion/?utm_source=YPH_link_2

 

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40 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's what I say to the few Bernie-or-Busters I know, but those folks are really in a cult of personality and, I think, I have little interest in politics. As Kalbear says, they think they  can somehow improve the system by smashing it to bits and ignoring the human cost.

I am very frustrated with the sentiment that Trump will be so disasterous that it will usher in real change, such as Sanders.  In the short term, our international standing will suffer horribly, and the key Bernie planks like addressing economic inequality and climate change will get much worse.  Politics has a ton of inertia and accepting a short term disaster for a long term "maybe things will improve?" is really really stupid. 

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Trump tweeting that he loves Hispanics because he loves taco bowls is, I have to say, the kind of tone deaf cultural appropriation that comes directly from modern conservatives.

What makes it very trump, however, is him lying about said taco bowl being made at the trump tower grill. Everything trump says has to be fact checked.

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As much as I like that first salvo from Hillary on Trump with the commercial featuring all of those other Republicans...I'm hoping there is something similar to use with whomever is unlucky enough to be the VP candidate.  That would be a fun attack ad.

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3 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's what I say to the few Bernie-or-Busters I know, but those folks are really in a cult of personality and, I think, I have little interest in politics. As Kalbear says, they think they  can somehow improve the system by smashing it to bits and ignoring the human cost.

I think Hillary did a great job of endorsing Obama at the 2008 Democratic convention, and that this is what helped convince many of her supporters to vote for him. (anecdotally, it's what convinced my mom)

If Sanders does the same thing, with the same sincerity, this time around, then I have absolutely no problem with him staying in it until June. 

I think he will. Every thing I read and watch about him shows him to be a principled guy. Despite his criticisms of Clinton (which are, on the whole, pretty minor), he has said that stopping Trump would be his ultimate priority. 

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Quote

A man with Trump's temperament and habits could do real, lasting, no-joke damage as the leader of the free world.

 

Hillary Clinton, for all her flaws, has demonstrated a basic level of competence. She understands how policy and government work. She's not openly racist; she hasn't encouraged street violence. There's no risk that she would disrupt the international order or cause an economic crisis out of pique.

That's a really, really low bar. But it's the only bar she has to clear in this contest. Almost irrespective of what you think of Clinton's politics or her policies, she is manifestly more prepared to run the federal government than Donald Trump.

The number of people who recognize this elemental fact about the election, however, has probably already reached and passed its peak. It will decline from here on out. The moment of clarity is already ending.

Why is clarity passing? Because the US political ecosystem — media, consultants, power brokers, think tanks, foundations, officeholders, the whole thick network of institutions and individuals involved in national politics — cannot deal with a presidential election in which one candidate is obviously and uncontroversially the superior (if not sole acceptable) choice. The machine is simply not built to handle a race that's over before it's begun.

There are entire classes of professionals whose jobs are premised on the model of two roughly equal sides, clashing endlessly. The Dance of Two Parties sustains the consultants and activists.

And it sustains the media, which is what I want to discuss below.

Among all these classes of professionals, all these institutions, that whole superstructure of US politics built around two balanced sides, there will be a tidal pull to normalize this election, to make it Coca-Cola versus Pepsi instead of Coca-Cola versus sewer water.

The US political system knows how to play the former script; it doesn't know how to play the latter. There's a whole skein of practices, relationships, and money flows developed around the former. The latter would occasion a reappraisal of, well, everything. Scary.

So there will be a push to lift Donald Trump up and bring Hillary Clinton down, until they are at least something approximating two equivalent choices.

It's not a conspiracy; it won't be coordinated. It doesn't need to be. It's just a process of institutions, centers of power and influence, responding to the incentive structure that's evolved around them. The US political ecosystem needs this election to be competitive.

 

No institution needs a competitive election more than the media, especially what remains of the "objective" campaign media. Imagine writing this headline:

 

Trump, bad candidate, likely to lose

 

Now imagine writing it again and again for six months — and watching your web traffic dwindle into nothing. Sad!

 

The campaign press requires, for its ongoing health and advertising revenue, a real race. It needs controversies. "Donald Trump is not fit to be president" may be the accurate answer to pretty much every relevant question about the race, but it's not an interesting answer. It's too final, too settled. No one wants to click on it.

What's more, the campaign media's self-image is built on not being partisan, which precludes adjudicating political disputes. How does that even work if one side is offering up a flawed centrist and the other is offering up a vulgar xenophobic demagogue?

 

It would be profoundly out of character for reporters to spend the six months between now and the election writing, again and again, that one side's candidate is a liar and a racist and an egomaniac. It would be uncomfortable, personally and professionally.

 

It's true that the media has been uncharacteristically blunt in its criticism of Trump during the primary, mainly because almost every source it considers legitimate hates Trump, including the Republican establishment. To date, the anti-Trump position has been safely inside the Washington consensus.

 

That will change once the GOP apparatus inevitably swings around behind Trump and begins accusing journalists who write critical stories of bias. If there's one thing the GOP apparatus knows how to do, it's ensure that there's always another side, that reporters get smacked every time they move past "one hand, other hand" coverage.

Already we've seen reporters leap at the Trump "pivot" story several times, though Trump's newfound presidential tone never seems to last even a full 24 hours.

 

It will not take much for "new, grown-up Trump" stories to take hold once he is the nominee. The media and the GOP apparatus both need those stories, the former for "balance," the latter for paychecks.

 

In short order, Trump's obvious unfitness for office — today widely acknowledged across both parties and in the mainstream media — will become a partisan observation, something Democrats say. Consultants from the two parties will sit across from one another on cable news shows and squabble about it, as nature intended.

 

 

 

 

 

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http://www.vox.com/2016/5/5/11589262/2016-general-election-is-going-to-suck

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Bit on the voter ID law in Missouri. Not as terrible as some laws. Still purposefully disenfranchising hundreds of thousands to solve a non existent problem while saddling taxpayers with millions in costs.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/05/05/3775525/missouri-voter-id-2/

and holy shit, Cook political report made major changes to it's electoral college projections! damn.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9583

 

 

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10 hours ago, Switchback the Second said:

I don't think the 'Bernie or Bust' crowd will largely affect anything at the end, because I fully expect Sanders to say loudly and often that he wants his supporters to support Clinton.  He's on record several times, including just the other day, saying preventing a Trump presidency is going to be his main objective.  The 'Bernie or Bust' gang will have to go against their leader's public pleas if they want to vote Trump in, or even if they want to just stay home.  This election will be a landslide.

9 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

That's what I say to the few Bernie-or-Busters I know, but those folks are really in a cult of personality and, I think, I have little interest in politics. As Kalbear says, they think they  can somehow improve the system by smashing it to bits and ignoring the human cost.

I am friends with a few Bernie or Bust types. They're really starting to piss me off with their bs.  While I despise Clinton, I also have no issue voting for her over that gob of shit Donald Trump. He will be disastrous on every level.

Also, those people that say they'll vote for Trump over Clinton confuse me. Sanders despises people like Trump since he is the exact sort of unethical businessman he constantly rallies against.

7 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Trump tweeting that he loves Hispanics because he loves taco bowls is, I have to say, the kind of tone deaf cultural appropriation that comes directly from modern conservatives.

What makes it very trump, however, is him lying about said taco bowl being made at the trump tower grill. Everything trump says has to be fact checked.

 

 


He's like the misogynist that says he doesn't hate women since he has sex with them or has a mother and daughter. Oh wait, he is that person as well. He's so racist that he is racist when he's trying to prove he isn't racist.

9 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I am very frustrated with the sentiment that Trump will be so disasterous that it will usher in real change, such as Sanders.  In the short term, our international standing will suffer horribly, and the key Bernie planks like addressing economic inequality and climate change will get much worse.  Politics has a ton of inertia and accepting a short term disaster for a long term "maybe things will improve?" is really really stupid. 

I agree, Trump makes George W Bush look like a competent person. Like you said, our international standing would suffer horribly as well as our economy and civil rights for people of color, women and the LGBT community would be set back. The only thing this guy is qualified to run is a business straight into the ground. So yea, it's not a short term disaster. Look how long it took to get out of the mess W Bush left us in, Trump could do worse damage in 4 years than Bush did in 8.

 

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1 hour ago, Stan the Man Baratheon said:

Bernie should be definitely running as an Independent, if he actually meant about having a """"""""""""revolution"""""""""""". Otherwise he was just another lying politician from Washington who took people's money and made off with it. 

Sanders vowed not to run as an independent when he began running in the Democratic primary. So he'd actually be "just another lying politician" if he chose to ran as an independent. But please, have a taco bowl and continue living in your fantasy world. 

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It would be refreshing to see someone running for president who wasn't "just another lying politician".

Can Bernie actually win the nomination or is he hanging around for a taco bowl in fantasy world?

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9 minutes ago, Squab said:

It would be refreshing to see someone running for president who wasn't "just another lying politician".

Can Bernie actually win the nomination or is he hanging around for a taco bowl in fantasy world?

The only way Sanders gets the nomination is if something happens to Clinton, be it an indictment or a serious health issue.

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13 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

The only way Sanders gets the nomination is if something happens to Clinton, be it an indictment or a serious health issue.

Considering Mr. Sanders' age and sex, he's probably more likely to have a "serious health issue" in the next few months than Hillary Clinton is.

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