UK Politics: The Morning After

[sleath56]

3 minutes ago, DjourouLoveMe? said:

On this talk of could parliament go against the referendum: no, they can't. It'd be giving an open door for UKIP to make massive, massive actual gains at the next general election.

This is something that is becoming a very serious issue for the Conservatives. The primary worry according the MPs as they see it right now on Cameron remaining as PM is that UKIP will become the victory standard for the 17M Leave voters as virtually every other major party opposed it. By replacing Cameron with a Brexit supporter, they would siphon the support from UKIP cause because at this rate UKIP is predicted to make a major killing in the next election.

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said:

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2016-06-24/sinn-fein-calls-for-referendum-on-united-ireland/

In case we forget it's not just the Scots.

Great. Now for Northern Italy to follow.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Bollocks.

[Crazydog7]

I have been sitting here for 10 minutes trying to think of something intelligent to say....I honestly didn't see this one coming. 

Now the more interesting question will the vote be declared invalid?  Will countries who vote to leave actually be allowed to leave? 

[Ordos]

As a foreigner and somebody who does not know anything about the stock market and has zero contacts in the UK, I think I'll be the first to say my view of this is neutral. I frequently travel to Europe though and the UK is not a Schengen area country, so I need a separate visa to travel there. It makes no difference if they are out of the EU for me. 

It does interest me somewhat though as I'm a former EU citizen. I was a Dutch national once and maybe this is the first event in the complete collapse of the EU. If I were still Dutch, that would potentially mean no more open borders and back to the old currency. 

It would affect my frequent travel to Euopre in the future as Schengen might be no more. I might need 5 to 10 visas in my passport if I were to go around Europe as I sometimes do.

[apovsic]

I got this from another forum, but there is no source about it, so can someone confirm this?

HOW AGES VOTED
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain

So, in some 10 years UK will have another vote to join EU? 

[DaveSumm]

Wow, Cameron choked up at the end there. Gone by October.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, apovsic said:

I got this from another forum, but there is no source about it, so can someone confirm this?

HOW AGES VOTED
18-24: 75% Remain
25-49: 56% Remain
50-64: 44% Remain
65+: 39% Remain

So, in some 10 years UK will have another vote to join EU? 

Well, not so easy. If Scotland has left by then, and if Northern Ireland follows, then large blocks of Remain voters will be gone.

[john]

Kind of bizarre delaying tactic by Cameron after saying repeatedly he would trigger article 50 himself.

[sleath56]

1 minute ago, DaveSumm said:

Wow, Cameron choked up at the end there. Gone by October.

A little more context for those who were unable to watch: Cameron announced his resignation in October and will withhold the invokement of Article 50 for the succeeding PM to decide. Both of these things are against the vows he initially made before the referendum. 1. That he would not step down no matter the result and 2. He will invoke Article 50 immediately in case of a Brexit.

[john]

Boris Johnson suddenly looking like a bumbling genius.

[apovsic]

9 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, not so easy. If Scotland has left by then, and if Northern Ireland follows, then large blocks of Remain voters will be gone.

What were the results there?

[GrimTuesday]

Man, I took a couple classes at University about the EU and in the process (wrote a few papers on the subject), I really got into the whole Brexit issue, and boy was I wrong about the outcome. It seemed to me that the British people would have to be crazy to leave the EU. The UK is one of the most influential actors within the EU, behind probably only Germany (Maybe France too), they have access to the single market, and they get the other benefits that come with being a member state. Now, if they trade with EU states, they still have to conform to those rules, they already have stricter environmental regulations than the EU demands, and they have lost their platform for being a world leader.

 

Enjoy your decent into irrelevance

 

I actually find it kind of interesting going back and reading my papers, this stood out to me looking at it in hindsight

Quote

According to polling service YouGov at the time of the most recent poll, 55% favored staying in the Union, where as 45% favored leaving. Respondents were also asked how certain they are that they will vote (68% of yes 78% of no), and how sure of the vote they say they intend to cast (69% of yes, 57% of no)[1]. The interesting thing about this is that even though the Yes vote seems to have a 10 percent lead over the No voters, you also have to consider the likelihood of voting and how firmly held their convictions are. The No voters hold a commanding 10 point lead over the yes votes, with over three quarters of respondents they will vote, but they also don’t seem as sure of what their vote will be. The fact that the No voters seem to be so much more certain is worrying for the prospects of the Yes vote winning, but while it is a red flag, it doesn’t necessarily spell doom for continuation of the UK in Europe.

---

[1] Stephan Shakespeare, “EU referendum: 'Yes' is ahead, but 'No' is underpriced” YouGov.co.uk June 9 2015 accessed 6/9/15 https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/09/eu-referendum-are-bookies-odds-yes-vote-over-price/

 

This is simply the musings of a 23 year old American political science student based off one poll (and researched and wrote what was, as a whole 15 page paper in less than 12 hours having not slept in 2 days. Glad I'm done with that shit for now), but I think in hindsight the fact that leave/No voters, while they weren't as firm on their actual vote, they seemed to have been much more certain they were going to vote and that is what could have tipped the scale, especially considering the Elderly are the most likely to vote (in the US anyway), and they seem to have been the demographic most in favor of a British exit from the EU.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 minutes ago, apovsic said:

What were the results there?

62% Remain vote in Scotland.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Maltrouane Fellaini said:

Goodbye Scotland, it was nice knowing you 

You can still have Andy Murray every secod weekend.

[john]

6 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Enjoy your little island/descent into irrelevance

Well it's a little island with London on it. Certainly a contender for most influential and powerful city in the world. Dont see that changing in the long term. It's definitely a worse blow for the european project than for the UK, especially if it triggers more exit refs.

[Cato.the.Elder]

4 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Except that the EU is undemocratic and has a structure that favours the imposition of neoliberal economics. The UK Parliament (since it is actually elected) allows people the voice EU doesn't. 

Somebody should have explained the English that there is a European parliament that they could vote, and that UK was also part of the Comission, and was and still is the most neoliberal country in Europe. The main responsible of the neoliberal policies in the UE are the Tories themselves. You can keep them.

I am relocating to London in September, so I am really devastated by this news (I am a Spanish who lives now in Austria. The freedom that the UE give us, so that we can consider a whole continent our home, is priceless, and is terrible how the UK has let a fascist as Farage set their agenda). At least I hope that things don't get much worse and that my time in London (that would probably be shorter that I expected) would at least be fine.

[protar]

What an absolute disaster. For the idiots who thought leaving the Eu would help the economy - congratulations you've already ruined the pound in a day. And to the people "concerned" about immigrants, you're nothing more than racist I have no time for you. Pretty ashamed to be british today.

[Tijgy]

I think it is also scary those votes are not just typical English but there is an anti-sentiment in several places in the European Union. 

Both in the Netherlands and in France the Eurocritic parties are willing very big in the polls. Le Pen was really doing well during the last elections. The PVV (Wilders) is doing also very good. In Austria Hofer from the eurosceptic party (FFÖ) also almost won. From the Eastern European countries we have Orban and the biggest party in Poland is also eurosceptic.  

In a referendum in Netherlands the Dutch voted against a treaty with Ukraine; which also gave a sign of unhappiness towards the European Union. And I do not really find the exact reaction of the EU officials towards those results, they were just not very democratic.

In several places in Europe an anti-EU sentiment is starting to rise. Some people think the whole decision process in undemocratic and doesn't take in account the opinions of the national parliaments. Negative referenda are put aside. During the Catalonia independence debate the European Union released some faulty documents to convince Catalonia to vote against indepenence (long live democracy?). And to be honest, sometimes I think the EU is governed by Merkell and Hollande (who just follows Merkel ); and let just say they were never present in a list during an election where I had right to vote. 

 But the European Union and the Pro-European politicians do not listen to those voices. Instead of starting a process to maybe rethink and reform the European institutions, the solution they always have is more European Union. And while they might not be the majority, their voice should not just be ignored. So I sincerely believe if the EU officials do not start at least a whole thinking process of fundamental reform of the EU institutions and thinking process, we might see more countries leave the EU. 

 

[GrimTuesday]

Just now, john said:

Well it's a little island with London on it. Certainly a contender for most influential and powerful city in the world. Dont see that changing in the long term. It's definitely a worse blow for the european project than for the UK, especially if it triggers more exit refs.

Certainly it is worse for the EU, considering they have lost one of their most important players, especially since they have always been one of the main proponents of enlargement, and are a major contribute to the military might of the EU. I was being hyperbolic in so far as it will almost certainly never be irrelevant, with, as you state, one of the major economic hubs in London, but at the same time, because it is likely going to leave the EU, it doesn't have the bargaining power for things like energy because they don't have the backing of other countries that allow them to negotiate as a bloc. Also, as I said, even though it will lose all the benefits of being part of the EU, it will still have to conform to the EU regulations if it wants to maintain commerce with EU member states. For sure the EU is taking a bigger hit, and this opens the door for other member states that are seeing a rise in eurosceptic movement to potentially leave which could be disastrous, but at the same time, this isn't going to be the catalyst for a British revival that the folks who seem think the British Empire died too soon seem to think it will be.