UK Politics: The Morning After

[The Marquis de Leech]

Any new Scottish* referendum would have to be approved by Westminster first.

*Or Northern Irish while we're at it.

Frankly the biggest surprise of the night was Wales.

[Nevarfeather]

4 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

 

Frankly the biggest surprise of the night was Wales.

Totally shocked by Wales, NI's remain vote was luke warm and I expected more from Wales! 
I guess there are just a lot of angry people who will lash out against austeristy....even if it means more austerity 

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

34 minutes ago, Arataniello said:

I think I will be spend the day at work learning up* on the Norwegian and Swiss models for relationship with the EU.

*because I learn good.

Due to the lack of EU membership, they are completely closed off and isolated from the outside world. Most of their people live as subsistence farmers that are periodically decimated by famines and epidemics, and are often forced into resorting to outright cannibalism before EU food relief packages can be airdropped into the tiny and primitive shanty towns that they call cities. Their general economic standards are comparable to what the rest of Europe exceeded in the ninth century A.D, and it is impossible for their youth to study abroad and gain the necessary knowledge to better their nations since EU countries only accept students from other EU countries (hence why there are absolutely zero American, Chinese, Indian and Australian students at European Universities, for example). 

Anyway, surprising that Britain actually voted leave. UK polling agencies must have serious issues of some kind, because it is not the first time they messed up really badly on important votes. Does this also have seem to come down to many people not being willing to publicly admit that they were for Brexit, much like their conservative sympathies in the last election? 

[Ser Quork]

 

42 minutes ago, Arataniello said:

Remember, IDS was leader of the Conservatives and was a complete and utter failure.  Schadenfreude and that.

Can we still use "Schadenfreude" now that UK is leaving the EU?

 

Ha ha!

Can we charge-back on words like Camping and Weekend?

23 minutes ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

<>

Guess the Brits need to go back to speaking Celtic languages.

which regional and minority languages had inordinate support from the EU!

I think I'm still in a state of shock at the nature of this decision and what it means for us and what it says about a people who put scapegoating foreigners before all else.

I think David Cameron is right to go.  This referendum result could see the break-up of the UK, as well as leading to a financially uncertain futures (at best) which I firmly believe will see the undermining of our health service, workers' rights, maternity and disability rights, contractual and consumer protections, amongst many other things.  However, the thought of BoJo as our PM is a ghastly one.

I'm fairly confident that those regions like the parts of Wales and the North West who so firmly voted for leave will not see match-funding from any Tory-led government for the Euro subsidies they will lose.

Motion of no-confidence in Jeremy Corbyn issued - which doesn't surprise me.

And I see Trump and Marion Le Pen think it's a great decision.  It's all just so distressing.

[The Marquis de Leech]

1 minute ago, Nevarfeather said:

Totally shocked by Wales, NI's remain vote was luke warm and I expected more from Wales! 
I guess there are just a lot of angry people who will lash out against austeristy....even if it means more austerity 

The interesting thing about Wales was that the Tory areas seem to have voted Remain and the Labour areas voted Leave. It was class-based voting.

[Ruhail]

I'm scared, i dont know how the UK is going to change as a result.

[The Marquis de Leech]

6 minutes ago, Ser Quork said:

Motion of no-confidence in Jeremy Corbyn issued - which doesn't surprise me.

Except that (1) Brexit was hardly his fault, and (2) he continues to have the full support of the rank and file. The Parliamentary party going after him will simply result in deselections.

[Ser Quork]

4 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Except that (1) Brexit was hardly his fault, and (2) he continues to have the full support of the rank and file. The Parliamentary party going after him will simply result in deselections.

(1) A lot of Labour heartlands voted Leave.  I think his performance was lacklustre and I suspect he's actually a Leaver at heart (as indeed Labour was back in the 70s). The debate turned on immigration and I didn't feel he really got to the heart of that deflection to focus with clarity on why a Leave vote would be so devastating to the interests of those core Labour supporters. 

As an additional consideration, it's possible, and certainly being discussed at the moment, that Cameron stepping down may result in a general election being called (and certainly think it should under these exceptional circumstances) and many consider that Corbyn is unelectable.

 

 

[Danelle]

19 minutes ago, Tijgy said:

 

Spain probably will be against. Belgium ... is more a difficult matter. The biggest party in Flanders is a Flemish Nationalist Party NV-A, the PM of Flanders is a nationalist. During the last decennia parties with a clear path to more Flemish autonomy have always done well in Flanders. 

At this moment the other Flemish nationalist (and radical right) party Vlaams Belang is already complaining in the media the N-VA are traitor of the Flemish nationalists, ... While Vlaams Belang lost really bad the last election (5%), there are getting their votes back (probably as result of the current refugee crisis and of the terrorist attacks). At this moment they were even the third party.  The NV-A lost some of their votes, but there are still leading with 28% I believe. And this week, a big name in Vlaams Belang wrote a book which describes how Flanders can become independent and at the same time criticizing NV-A is doing nothing about it. 

It would be politically suicide for a Flemish politician to not accept Scotland. And Flanders is still a bigger part of the country than Brussels or Wallonia. Maybe some French-speaking socialists will speak against it? But I think Belgium will in general just stay silent on the issue; the favorite way of doing this here.  

@Tijgy

Thanks for the information!

I am not really that familiar with the political situation in Belgium, but I recall that when the Scottish independence was a possible outcome a few years ago, Spain and Belgium were often used in arguments against, since the two countries for their own reasons would strongly oppose any eu membership.

Then again after Brexit, anything is possible.

 

On the other hand, I can't help noticing the strong reaction of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

From The Guardian website:

Quote

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has said a second independence referendum is “highly likely”. She wants to explore all options to stay in the EU.

Also the deputy first minister of NI, has proposed a reunification, since the vast majority or Irish voters want to remain in EU. 

While it may not be very likely for Scotland and NI to leave the UK, it is still a very big issue.

Was this possibility ever mentioned by the brexit supporters?

From what I understand-and I might be wrong- the main arguments against EU, was the belief that UK can survive on her own.

Was the scenario of Scotland and NI abandoning UK never been suggested as a serious implication?

[The Marquis de Leech]

8 minutes ago, Ser Quork said:

(1) A lot of Labour heartlands voted Leave.  I think his performance was lacklustre and I suspect he's actually a Leaver at heart (as indeed Labour was back in the 70s). The debate turned on immigration and I didn't feel he really got to the heart of that deflection to focus with clarity on why a Leave vote would be so devastating to the interests of those core Labour supporters. 

As an additional consideration, it's possible, and certainly being discussed at the moment, that Cameron stepping down may result in a general election being called (and certainly think it should under these exceptional circumstances) and many consider that Corbyn is unelectable.

Asking Corbyn (who is pro-Leave at heart) to try and persuade people of the merits of the EU is getting him to turn the proverbial oil tanker. All that would have happened would have been further disconnect between parliamentary Labour and the people it thinks it represents. 

A new election requires repeal of the Five Year term legislation, and would take place before the new boundaries are set. I can't see it.

[VarysTheSpider]

I suppose all the 'fear-mongering' worked in a way, because shit sure is scary now. 

[Maltaran]

1 minute ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

 

A new election requires repeal of the Five Year term legislation, and would take place before the new boundaries are set. I can't see it.

No, just requires a vote of no confidence in the current government and then no-one forming a new government in the next 14 days. Provided Prime Minister Boris doesn't mind the farcical spectacle of his MPs voting no confidence in themselves, he can call it whenever.

[Cadiva]

6 hours ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Except that the EU is undemocratic and has a structure that favours the imposition of neoliberal economics. The UK Parliament (since it is actually elected) allows people the voice EU doesn't. 

The EU is not undemocratic. In fact, the European Parliament is even more democratic than the UK Parliament as it votes in on a system of proportional representation unlike our First Past the Post system. EU representatives to the European Congress are similarly chosen by our own Government and can be recalled and replaced instantly. 

[Ser Quork]

1 minute ago, VarysTheSpider said:

I suppose all the 'fear-mongering' worked in a way, because shit sure is scary now. 

It feels precipitous and dangerous, without a doubt.

[Northernmonkey]

I'd quite like Corbyn to go but it's ridiculous to blame him for the referendum result. The problem wasn't that he wasn't campaigning hard enough, it was that the Labour Party had nothing to say on immigration. The exact same thing would have happened with a different leader. Completely disingenuous from the PLP.

[Fez]

Just saw an interview with a woman who said

"I'm shocked and worried. I voted Leave but didn't think my vote would count; I never thought it would actually happen."

So part of the problem is that you just have some real dumb voters. As an American, I can commiserate.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Fuck.

 

Even worse is the prospect of another divisive shitshow of a Scottish referendum.  I assume SNP will run polls tonsee if theyve got support now tonsave a further embarresment.  If polls can even be relied on.

 

oh well, my Dad's lived in Chile for 25 years and my wife's got an Israeli passport, so there might be options

[Arkash]

You know what, just give us back Scotland, NI and London, guys ! 

Sad to see my (our) British sisters and brothers deciding to drop us out. 

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

I'm still just so shocked as to how poor the Remain campaign really was. It didn't address any of the issues that were pushing people to vote Leave at all. 

[Cadiva]

On a happier note though, I am quite pleased that my little bit of Yorkshire was one of the yellows and am now seriously considering a move to Scotland and actively campaigning yes in an indy ref.

I'd quite like Corbyn to go but it's ridiculous to blame him for the referendum result. The problem wasn't that he wasn't campaigning hard enough, it was that the Labour Party had nothing to say on immigration. The exact same thing would have happened with a different leader. Completely disingenuous from the PLP.

The PMP has shown consistently that it is out of touch with grass roots Labour thoughts and supporters and this is no different sadly. I'm on the EC of one of the constituencies which was an early, in fact I think we were the first, supporter of Corbyn and our membership is a massive mix of people and backgrounds who all believe he can effect a change if given the space to do so.