Future of Stannis

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Im really curious about what stannis has in planned. Ive just recently read the last book a dance with dragons and im really curious what Stannis plan is. It seems obvious that stannis will crush the boltons and capture winterfell so lets assume it goes down like that. But what does he plan to do after that? Will he march down the neck to the riverlands? Will he regroup in white harbour? Or will he make haste for the wall? 

This is what i think will happen. I think Stannis will rally his host bolsterd by the northmen and mach down to white harbour. There he will meet Davos who has brought Rickon Stark and Stannis will make Rickon warden of the north and when all the northern lords witness how Stannis put the Starks back in charge and avenged the red wedding they will all swear oaths of loyality to Stannis and he will have a large  army and a powerful fleet. His fleet will be even more boolsterd when Aurane waters gifts him the royal fleet. This is based of patchfaces prophecy:   I will lead it! We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh. I also think Sansa and Petyr will join Stannis because i noticed the ship Sansa and Littlefinger leave Kings Landing on had, on its sails a MERMAN, BLOWING A GREAT SEASHELL like patchfaces prophecy.

Stannis will now have the most powerful army and most powerful fleet on the east coast of westeros. Stannis will request that Sansa being half tully will take the riverlands and rally the non frey troops to stannis cause. Stannis will himself recapture Dragonstone with his fleet and begin mining dragon glass and shipping it to the wall. Stannis will then take Rickon to skagos and recruit all of its warriors who probably see rickon as their wolf king, Sansa and Petyr will now march with the forces of the vale and the riverlands to King's Landing and Stannis will begin sailing to King's Landing. The golden company will by now have killed alot of the boy kings army so Stannis will have no problem at all taking Kings landing which is poorly garrisoned from sea and land. 

From here i do not know what stannis will do but guys i really think stannis has a good chance of siting the iron throne.

Please tell me what you think and what your theory is?

[Free Northman Reborn]

No.

I don't know what exactly Stannis will do, but not that.

After much consideration, I have come to the conclusion that he will win the Battle of the Lake. I am less clear about what will happen in Winterfell, but he might actually take the castle itself as well, if Roose is dead and Ramsay is betrayed by the northmen on the inside. After that, things become murky.

[Chaircat Meow]

I partially agree with you. I think Stannis will absolutely crush the Boltons, winning the Battle of the Lake and using a ruse to take Winterfell and hang/burn Roose and Ramsay. I think this will induce some of the northern lords to follow Stannis for a time at least, and Stannis will bolster his position by restoring Rickon.

However, I think there may be opposition to the southron king, who has no real base of support in the north. Perhaps Robb's will will show up, or maybe Manderly/Mormont etc demand guardianship of Rickon, or find out Bran is still alive. At the same time, or alternatively, Littlefinger might put Sansa in play and rally anti-Stannis forces around her, bolstered by the Vale. At this point I think Stannis uses the mercenaries from Braavos to maintain his grip on power.

So while he will have some sway over the north he won't have resolved the instability there and winter is coming. He may well die fighting the Others, having failed to mount as effective a defence as he hoped. I do not believe he will ever go South again.

[Jon Fossoway]

There's a good theory on his stand against Frey forces. He'll use the weirwood in the middle of the frizen lake as a beacon that will draw Hosteen and kill him among others, in the confusion Whoresbane switch sides, as most of the northern host that marches with Hosteen and in the end Stannis captures Ramsay. Should be messy and bloody or not messy nor bloody at all. I don't see a middle point there, it will not be a skirmish nor any army will escape the field if it loses it.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

As of now, the only things we can predict with reasonable certainty is that - Stannis will win the Battle of Ice, and fake his death there. From there on, we have no idea what might happen.

But yeah, I think Stannis' story has a long way to go yet. We have a few hints that he will survive atleast to meet Dany.

[Scorpion92]

I know one thing for sure - he will die at Dragonstone, his seat of power, which happens to be the ancestral seat of House Targaryen. Dany's prophecy of "slayer of lies" and "blue eyed king with burning sword who cast no shadow" will come true at Dragonstone.

Dragonstone is in posession of Iron Throne after Loras Tyrell charged and got injured in the process. He will need a fleet and some army to take it back. The only one who can provide it for him are northern lords, and they will not give jack shit to him until he defeats Boltons and installs Rickon as Lord Stark and Warden of the North.

So at this point I can certainly say that he will defeat Boltons, install Rickon as Stark in Winterfell and leave him in regency of Lord Manderly. Northern coalition of lords led by Manderly will award him with an army, which he will immediately sail first to Dragonstone (captained by ironborn, mainly Asha Greyjoy, since Manderly lackis experienced sailors), then plan his second siege of the capital. 

Dany burns Stannis in dragonfire which is foreshadowed on his banners of burning heart of a stag, slaying a lie of him as savior and Azor Ahai, and Stannis' army will probably switch their allegiance to Dany and worship her as Azor Ahai after witnessing her power.

[The North Forgot]

1 hour ago, Scorpion92 said:

I know one thing for sure - he will die at Dragonstone, his seat of power, which happens to be the ancestral seat of House Targaryen. Dany's prophecy of "slayer of lies" and "blue eyed king with burning sword who cast no shadow" will come true at Dragonstone.

Dragonstone is in posession of Iron Throne after Loras Tyrell charged and got injured in the process. He will need a fleet and some army to take it back. The only one who can provide it for him are northern lords, and they will not give jack shit to him until he defeats Boltons and installs Rickon as Lord Stark and Warden of the North.

So at this point I can certainly say that he will defeat Boltons, install Rickon as Stark in Winterfell and leave him in regency of Lord Manderly. Northern coalition of lords led by Manderly will award him with an army, which he will immediately sail first to Dragonstone (captained by ironborn, mainly Asha Greyjoy, since Manderly lackis experienced sailors), then plan his second siege of the capital. 

Dany burns Stannis in dragonfire which is foreshadowed on his banners of burning heart of a stag, slaying a lie of him as savior and Azor Ahai, and Stannis' army will probably switch their allegiance to Dany and worship her as Azor Ahai after witnessing her power.

I agree it seems plausible, but you're forgetting one crucial thing, Jon lies stabbed at Castle Black, if he gets resurrected either by means of Old Gods (Bran) or R'hollor (Mel burning Ramsay? Please let this be true, he does have King's blood from the Red Kings), something tells me he might be seen as the chosen one for many northeners and possibly some from Stannis' army.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Scorpion92 said:

I know one thing for sure - he will die at Dragonstone, his seat of power, which happens to be the ancestral seat of House Targaryen. Dany's prophecy of "slayer of lies" and "blue eyed king with burning sword who cast no shadow" will come true at Dragonstone.

Dragonstone is in posession of Iron Throne after Loras Tyrell charged and got injured in the process. He will need a fleet and some army to take it back. The only one who can provide it for him are northern lords, and they will not give jack shit to him until he defeats Boltons and installs Rickon as Lord Stark and Warden of the North.

So at this point I can certainly say that he will defeat Boltons, install Rickon as Stark in Winterfell and leave him in regency of Lord Manderly. Northern coalition of lords led by Manderly will award him with an army, which he will immediately sail first to Dragonstone (captained by ironborn, mainly Asha Greyjoy, since Manderly lackis experienced sailors), then plan his second siege of the capital. 

Dany burns Stannis in dragonfire which is foreshadowed on his banners of burning heart of a stag, slaying a lie of him as savior and Azor Ahai, and Stannis' army will probably switch their allegiance to Dany and worship her as Azor Ahai after witnessing her power.

Why would Stannis want to return to Dragonstone? And, are there in passages in the text to hint at such an outcome? 

[MinotaurWarrior]

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why would Stannis want to return to Dragonstone? And, are there in passages in the text to hint at such an outcome? 

He'd return to Dragonstone for the dragonstone. Obsidian blades, yo.

I'd love a different outcome for Stannis (give up the crown, go see the dentist) but it's not like this theory makes no sense. They already provided the key piece of supporting text. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

This is from Sansa's escape from Kings Landing...

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The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn when Sansa finally saw a ghostly shape in the darkness ahead; a trading galley, her sails furled, moving slowly on a single bank of oars. As they drew closer, she saw the ships figurehead, a merman with a golden crown blowing on a great seashell horn. She heard a voice cry out, and the galley swung slowly about.

Sansa V, Storm

I believe there is a reason the George described the ship's figurehead so clearly, a merman with a golden crown blowing on a great seashell horn. Seashells are very closely associated with House Westerling. But I don't see any connection there. Davos at one points describes a sound like the faint whisper of the sea in seashell. Now, I tend to think that the George at least tries to write very carefully, with many phrases and passages relating to others. But in this instance, I think the George merely chose a poetic phrase to describe what Davos was hearing. But seashells were used back in Game to describe Stannis's activity on Draganstone...

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A boy with an army, Varys said. Yet only a boy, as you say. The kings brothers are the ones giving Cersei sleepless nights . . . Lord Stannis in particular. His claim is the true one, he is known for his prowess as a battle commander, and he is utterly without mercy. There is no creature on earth half so terrifying as a truly just man. No one knows what Stannis has been doing on Dragonstone, but I will wager you that hes gathered more swords than seashells. So here is Cerseis nightmare: while her father and brother spend their power battling Starks and Tullys, Lord Stannis will land, proclaim himself king, and lop off her sons curly blond head . . . and her own in the bargain, though I truly believe she cares more about the boy.

Eddard XV, Game

So outside of House Westerling we see seashells associated with Davos and Stannis, but really, what do we have? Not much if anything. But in Dance, we hit a lode, first when Asha is taken by Stannis outside Deepwood Motte...

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A trumpet blew.

 

That' s wrong, she thought. There are no trumpets in the Drowned God' s watery halls.Below the waves the merlings hail their lord by blowing into seashells.

 

She dreamt of red hearts burning, and a black stag in a golden wood with flame streaming from his antlers.

And then we hear from Patchface shortly before Jon is attacked by Bowen Marsh...

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Patchface jumped up. I will lead it! His bells rang merrily. We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh.

Jon XIII, Dance

These two uses paint pictures nearly identical to the figurehead observed by Sansa, merlings or mermaids blowing seashells. Sansa's merman was the figurehead of a ship, a sort of herald, and Asha's merlings and Patchface's mermaids were clearly heralds. If you think this is all coincidental, you can stop reading now.

The principal practice of the Drowned God religion referenced by Asha is to drown people in the sea and then resurrect them so they can rise harder and stronger. Patchface himself apparently drowned but washed ashore and was resurrected (albeit softer and dumber). But in both cases we have people drowning under the waves, in the Drowned God’s watery halls. And Sansa's ship, well that's a Braavosi trading galley. Petyr, whose family originally hailed from Braavos, hired it to go to Gulltown, when the Lord of Harrenhal was dispatched to woo Lady Lysa in the Vale. It's also the ship Petyr uses to smuggle Sansa out of King's Landing, and later, it returns to Gulltown from Braavos, and Petyr's man Oswell learns some interesting news.

Most crowns, like the one that adorns the Merling King's figurehead, are golden, including Stannis's. Stannis has just obtained the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos, and we have reason to suspect he intends to effect a ruse in the battle against Houses Bolton and Frey. Moreover, we know that House Manderly, which has completed a small armada, has pledged to aid Stannis if Stannis's man Davos recovers Rickon, and we know that Manderly is associated with mermen. And finally, we know that Aurane Waters, the Bastard of Driftmark, who fought for Stannis and tricked Cersei into building ships he later appropriated to set himself up in the Stepstones as the Lord of the Waters, is associated with seahorses.

Now, here's what I suspect will happen. Word of Stannis's defeat and death will spread, thus marching into the sea, but Manderly will triumph over Bolton. Stannis will then join Aurane's power (riding seahorses) to Manderly's power (mermen blowing seashells) to threaten Aegon and/or Daenerys, or possibly Euron. 

And they'll be joined by the river lords still allied with North...

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"Under the sea, men marry fishes." Patchface did a little dance step, jingling his bells. "They do, they do, they do."

Jon XIII, Dance

But not the Brackens...

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Memories of ancient wrongs and bygone betrayals were not oft put aside by the lords of the Trident, whose enmities ran as deep as the rivers that watered their lands. Time and again, one or more of these riverlords would join with some invader against their own king; indeed, in some cases it was there very lords who brought the outsiders into the riverlands, offering them lands or gold or daughters for their help against familiar foes.

The Riverlands, TWOIAF

Stannis's host of Nothmen and Rivermen will array for battle at the Trident. Their numbers will be swollen by Northern childless and homeless men, unwed men, old men, and younger sons coming for war, for adventure and plunder, and for a glorious death to spare their kin beyond the Neck one more mouth to feed (just like Creegan Stark's host in the Dance of the Dragons). Daenerys will meet them...

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That night she dreamt she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurpers rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent.

However, I think rather than burn this host she will take it for her own to fight Aegon. Recall how Stannis took Renly's power for his own...

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"I beg you in the name of the Mother," Catelyn began when a sudden gust of wind flung open the door of the tent. She thought she glimpsed movement, but when she turned her head, it was only the king's shadow shifting against the silken walls. She heard Renly begin a jest, his shadow moving, lifting its sword, black on green, candles guttering, shivering, something was queer, wrong, and then she saw Renly's sword still in its scabbard, sheathed still, but the shadowsword . . .

 

"Cold," said Renly in a small puzzled voice, a heartbeat before the steel of his gorget parted like cheesecloth beneath the shadow of a blade that was not there. He had time to make a small thick gasp before the blood came gushing out of his throat.

Catelyn IV, Clash

We know that the North fought on the black side in the Dance of Dragons. And I seem to recall an SSM where the George said the North tended to be loyalist after Torrhen knelt (or perhaps it was a post by Ran). We know that Daenerys is going to slay the lie that is Stannis or his claim. Perhaps Drogon, the shadow, will remove Stannis and Daenerys will claim Stannis's forces the way Stannis claimed Renly's.

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It were the black one, the man said, in a Ghiscari growl, the winged shadow. He come down from the sky and and

Daenerys I, Dance 2

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"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning . . . burning, Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash. Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means? Or you?"

Davos V, Storm 54

I believe the George sometimes substitutes crabs for carrion crows picking over the dead. 

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They won many battles over the next two years, culminating in Prince Daemon killing the Myrish prince--Admiral Craghas Drahar, called Crabfeeder--in single combat.

Viserys I, TWOIAF

In between the seashell quotes in Dance, we have this...

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"Under the sea mermen feast on starfish soup, and all the serving men are crabs," Patchface proclaimed as they went. "I know, I know, oh, oh, oh."

Jon X, Dance

The sea here alludes to Stannis's upcoming ruse where he misleads others into believing that he has been defeated and killed, but he will be joined by Manderly. I'm not sure exactly why they're gonna feast on starfish soup kalthouh I have seen it suggested that starfish could allude to Bolton's sigil) but a lot of Freys and some traitorous northmen are gonna get whacked in battle for for the carrion feeders. 

[Tucu]

At that point Patchface was talking to Jon, so it might have nothing to do with Stannis.

The Seahorses can be a reference to the Velaryons that at that point serve Stannis or to just any ship. The merman reference is very ambiguous; it can refer to the Manderlys, the Braavosi ship hired by Littlefinger, the actual Merling King (one of the gods associated with dead in the House of Black and White), or just a second reference to the Velaryons (that received their Driftwood Throne from the Merling King)

Given that the discussion was about rescuing the wildlings at Hardhome, my guess is that the Merling King represents death (of the fleet sent by Jon)

[Lost Melnibonean]

28 minutes ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

He'd return to Dragonstone for the dragonstone. Obsidian blades, yo.

I'd love a different outcome for Stannis (give up the crown, go see the dentist) but it's not like this theory makes no sense. They already provided the key piece of supporting text. 

Here's the passage, yo...

 

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The king gave that a curt nod, as if to say he knew and did not care. "You slew this creature with an obsidian dagger, I am told," he said to Sam.

"Y-yes, Your Grace. Jon Snow gave it to me."

"Dragonglass." The red woman's laugh was music. "Frozen fire, in the tongue of old Valyria. Small wonder it is anathema to these cold children of the Other."

"On Dragonstone, where I had my seat, there is much of this obsidian to be seen in the old tunnels beneath the mountain," the king told Sam. "Chunks of it, boulders, ledges. The great part of it was black, as I recall, but there was some green as well, some red, even purple. I have sent word to Ser Rolland my castellan to begin mining it. I will not hold Dragonstone for very much longer, I fear, but perhaps the Lord of Light shall grant us enough frozen fire to arm ourselves against these creatures, before the castle falls."

Sam cleared his throat. "S-sire. The dagger . . . the dragonglass only shattered when I tried to stab a wight."

Melisandre smiled. "Necromancy animates these wights, yet they are still only dead flesh. Steel and fire will serve for them. The ones you call the Others are something more."

"Demons made of snow and ice and cold," said Stannis Baratheon. "The ancient enemy. The only enemy that matters."

 

Samwell V, Storm 78

This is long before The great western alliance captures Dragonstone. Stannis has already sent word to Roland Storm to mine it. Stannis knows Dragonstone will fall to the western alliance, and he offers know indication that he will take it, specifically, back. Is there some other passage to suggest that he would attempt to seize an isolated island fortress? 

[The Drunkard]

If he wins the Battles of Ice & Winterfell he would return to the Wall. It'll be in chaos with Jon dead which leaves his family at risk and humanity's biggest defense against the Others weakened. Furthermore, he has already concluded that conquering the throne before saving the kingdom would be a mistake, so he's not going to abandon the North to take the throne just when he's capable of mounting a proper defense.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 8/25/2016 at 10:17 PM, The Drunkard said:

If he wins the Battles of Ice & Winterfell he would return to the Wall. It'll be in chaos with Jon dead which leaves his family at risk and humanity's biggest defense against the Others weakened. Furthermore, he has already concluded that conquering the throne before saving the kingdom would be a mistake, so he's not going to abandon the North to take the throne just when he's capable of mounting a proper defense.

Yes, I wonder about this too. I could see Melisandre and Selyse despairing over Stannis's apparent defeat and death, and then burning Shireen (poor Shireen) to death in some desperate gambit to rouse Stannis. Since death can pay for life, maybe they will end up resurrecting Jon, and when Stannis gets back to the Wall he'll be pissed and burn Melisandre to death. But with Jon at Castle Black, he might go south to confront the other claimants. 

Wouldn't this be sweet...

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“They will not.” Melisandre’s voice was soft. “I am sorry, Your Grace. This is not an end. More false kings will soon rise to take up the crowns of those who’ve died.” “More?”Stannis looked as though he would gladly have throttled her.

But it's gonna be the other way round. Compare this...

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“More usurpers? More traitors?” “I have seen it in the flames.” Queen Selyse went to the king’s side. “The Lord of Light sent Melisandre to guide you to your glory. Heed her, I beg you. R’hllor’s holy flames do not lie.”

To this...

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The black priest bowed his head. “There is no need. The Lord of Light has shown me your worth, lord Captain. Every night in my fires I glimpse the glory that awaits you.”

And recall this...

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"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning... burning Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash.Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means?"

Is it possible that the fate of Serala, the Lace Serpent of Duskendale foreshadows the fate of Melisandre?

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The queen's men might remain fervent followers of the Lord of Light, but the lesser folk of Dragonstone were drifting back to the gods they'd known all their lives. They said Stannis was ensorceled, that Melisandre had turned him away from the Seven to bow before some demon out of shadow, and . . . worst sin of all . . . that she and her god had failed him. And there were knights and lordlings who felt the same.

Davos V, Storm 54

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"In Duskendale they love Lord Denys still, despite the woe he brought them. 'Tis Lady Serala that they blame, his Myrish wife. The Lace Serpent, she is called. ... The Lace Serpent filled her husband's ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive. ...

... "Once Lord Denys lost his hostage, he opened his gates and ended his defiance rather than let Lord Tywin take the town. He bent the knee and begged for mercy, but the king was not of a forgiving mind. Lord Denys lost his head, as did his brothers and his sister, uncles, cousins, all the lordly Darklyns. The Lace Serpent was burned alive, poor woman, though her tongue was torn out first, and her female parts, with which it was said that she had enslaved her lord. Half of Duskendale will still tell you that Aerys was too kind to her."

 

Brienne II, Feast 9

I suppose being burned alive would be a fitting end for Melisandre.

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At the top of the steps Davos heard a soft jingle of bells that could only herald Patchface. The princess's fool was waiting outside the maester's door for her like a faithful hound. Dough-soft and slump-shouldered, his broad face tattooed in a motley pattern of red and green squares, Patchface wore a helm made of a rack of deer antlers strapped to a tin bucket. A dozen bells hung from the tines and rang when he moved . . . which meant constantly, since the fool seldom stood still. He jingled and jangled his way everywhere he went; small wonder that Pylos had exiled him from Shireen's lessons. "Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish," the fool muttered at Davos. He bobbed his head, and his bells clanged and chimed and sang. "I know, I know, oh oh oh."

Davos V, Storm 54

Melisandre is old...

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... Strange voices called to her from days long past.

...

... Melisandre had practiced her art for years beyond count, and she had paid the price.

Melisandre, Dance 31

Shireen is young...

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Her name was Shireen. She would be ten on her next name day, and she was the saddest child that Maester Cressen had ever known.

Prologue, Clash

Melisandre wants king’s blood...

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Melisandre moved closer. "Save them, sire. Let me wake the stone dragons. Three is three. Give me the boy."

...

... He turned back to Melisandre. "You swear there is no other way? Swear it on your life, for I promise, you shall die by inches if you lie."

... Melisandre went to him, her red lips parted, her ruby throbbing. "Give me this boy," she whispered, "and I will give you your kingdom."

"He can't," said Davos. "Edric Storm is gone."

Davos VI, Storm 63

Shireen has king’s blood, and she is a dead girl...

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"If Stannis wins his war, Shireen will stand as heir to the Iron Throne."

"Then I pity your Seven Kingdoms."

"The maesters say greyscale is not—"

"The maesters may believe what they wish. Ask a woods witch if you would know the truth. The grey death sleeps, only to wake again. The child is not clean! "

"She seems a sweet girl. You cannot know—"

"I can. You know nothing, Jon Snow." Val seized his arm. "I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Melisandre cannot burn Edric Storm, but she is going to burn Shireen with Selyse’s blessing, since they will both be desperate having seen Jon Snow betrayed and wounded or dead, and having come to believe that Ramsay has defeated and killed Stannis.

And the old fish will eat the young fish. Poor Shireen.

Stannis is gonna be pissed. 

[Eden-Mackenzie]

When they arrive at Wall, doesn't Melisandre say something to the effect of Stannis is the chosen warrior of The Lord of Light, and he will be the one to triumph over the darkness? Seems to me Stannis is going to take the fight into the Lands of Always Winter, and I could also see Stannis as the type to die in victory. 

Stannis has some striking similarities to Richard III, which does not bode well for him. Stannis may take the Iron Throne at some point, but I doubt he will hold it very long. 

[Dex drako]

the way I see it stannis drops off the map after the battle of ice, thinking he's dead Mel will burn stannis's daughter to bring him back but save Jon instead. Jon then goes on to take winterfell and be crowned king in the north.

stannis won't show back up until after Dany has landed where he'll sails in and be exposed  as a fake AA.

[The Anti-Targ]

"Slayer of Lies" does not necessarily mean the death of Stannis. If Dany's title was "Slayer of Liars", then well she still might not kill Stannis since the liar in Stannis' story is Melisandre, and even she, at this point, (probably) doesn't realise she's following a lie. It's all a great big misunderstanding at this point.