How did Stannis intend to keep the throne?

[LordImp]

In a scenario where Stannis takes KL and Tywin stays in the RL. How would Stannis keep the throne?

He must have dealt with Tywin. With Joff and Tommen dead , Tywin will most likely try to seat Myrcella . 

Dorne has no reason to support Stannis. They might try to seat Myrcella as it would make Trystane king.

The Reach will not support Stannis. They might help seating Myrcella to avenge Renly.

Lysa didnt back her nephew , why should she back Stannis? If Stannis arrange a marriage between Shireen and Robert they might back him.

The North wants independence , why should they give that up for Stannis? And the Riverlands follows Robb.

And Iron islands have no reason to back Stannis. 

So i think if Stannis had taken the throne he would probably be overthrown by Tywin and co anyway. 

[The Hoare]

Crowning Myrcella would not be popular among the lords outside the Westernlands. Historically, the brother of a King has more legitimacy to the throne than a daughter, especially if said daughter is rumoured to be a bastard.

The Reach have a rivalry with Dorne and a Martell king would not be very well acceptable by half of their lords. Remember that the Tyrells didn't knew that Stannis killed Renly. Perharps if Stannis decided to pardon Lord Tyrell and give him a place on the small council the Reach could support him.

The Vale would probably stay out of the war. It's a precious land that LF would not throw away.

The North and Riverlands are not really a problem. They have a problem with the lannisters, but not with Stannis. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Stannis could give Robb some powerful incentives to bend the knee. Sansa, for one, and Joffrey's head. Maybe even an IOU for Tywin's head. Not a bad perspective for the Young Wolf.

At the moment of the fall of King's Landing, Myrcella's status in Dorne would immediately go down from "honored guest" to "hostage" (the exact thing which happened to Sansa earlier), and the plan of crowning her wouldn't be at all practical ("Say, Tyrell, why won't you go to war for Martell's little hostage/fiancée? Hey, did I say something funny?").

[Trigger Warning]

Stannis taking and retaining the throne was always a long shot if not near hopeless and he probably knows that. 

[Fencer]

You have to remember that this is Stannis.  He's exerting his claim on the throne because it is right.  He believes that the order of succession requires him to take the throne (and, actually, given the information that we as readers are privy to, he is correct) and the political realities of taking and keeping it are secondary to doing what he believes to be right.  And from his point of view, all he needs is for others to accept what is right and the throne is his.

[Protagoras]

I think the main reason would be that Stannis can in that case just sit and wait, since all others are at war with eachother and that Robb and Tywin sooner or later need to come to some sort of battle. Also, Stannis might give pardon if said lords removes their crown. And he will be more or less untouchable by sea. If somehow king´s landing falls, he can just sail out of there. In addition, Stannis now control Crownlands which is an excellent food source. And his success should mean the Iron bank might show up earlier.

And while few regions actually like Stannis, few actively dislike him too. At some point they might just accept status quo.

And as pointed out above, Robb for one would have a reason to surrender. In addition, Dorne will fake-surrender and wait for a Targ, Ironborn won´t surrender, but are not an issue for Stannis and can be dealt with later. Lannisters will at some point be forced to sue due to losses and Littlefinger might change his strategy if he can keep his Lord of Harrenhal title. The Reach are the one left and they might consider peace as well as long as they know the Florent won´t usurp their stuff. With both Joff and tommen dead, they have no advancement to fight for any more.

The main problem for Stannis I would say comes not from Westeros, but from whatever force Daenerys and/or Aegon has scrambled toghether

[Graydon Hicks]

i doubt robb would bend the knee. remember, he didn't actively proclaim himself KitN, but was proclaimed so by his bannermen and lords. even if robb wanted to bow to stannis's prerogative, his own nobles wouldnt have let him. the north has a stronger two way relationship between its ruling lord and his vassal nobles. that something to do with the First men culture of honor and obligation, that we have seen stronger in the north than almost anywhere else. if stannis was willing to compromise, which would be as likely as a snow fairy in hell, then he could hav had an alliance with robb to crush the lannisters, then let stannis rule the vale, westerlands, reach, stormlands, and dorne.

but with that typical baratheon belligerence, he would have demanded that robb bedn the knee, with no compromise, which might lead to him fighting the northerners and riverlords as much as he fights the lannisters. 

another one of stannis's problems is he so damn unlikable, rigid, and unforgiving. he seems to takes perceived slights against himself almost as badly as a lannister.

then there is melisandre. she was urging stannis to turn his campaign for the iron throne into a religious crusade. that alone would likely turn most of the realm against him. few things get folks up in arms than an attack on their beliefs, especially is the folks trying to convert you are willing to burn you at the stake if you don't agree with them. thats what happens, sans burning, when the andals invaded against the First Men in the first place, using the religion that they were bringing, the Faith of the Seven, to rouse the andal warriors to a religious fervor. it made them much more driven to fight, to be aggressive, but also led to atrocities. if the religion of the Red God took off in the same manner, stannis turning his war into a crusade, it just might unite every kingdom against him.

[devilish]

Stannis is a magnificent general but he lacked the foresight and the vision that a Baratheon need for him to rule. The Stormlands is a powerful but small region in Westeros. Its standing army of 20k is simply not enough to hold Westeros on their own and that's something both Robert and Renly understood and Stannis rejected from day 1. This is clear in his choice of wife, a nobody from a family whose got equal claim to the Reach but no army to back that up. There's no way the Tyrells would accept Stannis as king.

What should Stannis do? The answer is pretty simple ie he should have done a Robert Baratheon. The fat stag didn't win the crown because he committed most troops to the battefield. In matter of fact Robert's army was probably smaller then that fielded by the Vale, the Riverlands and the North. Robert won the crown because he made his more powerful allies and fallen enemies think that he cared dearly of them. He was not some Baratheon Lord coming from nowhere. He was a king who fought at the front, irrespective whether the man at his side was from Bronze gate, white harbor or Maiden Pool.

If I was Stannis I would have avoided Storm's end. Fighting Renly would not only risk killing Stannis only viable heir but would also mean kinslaying. Instead I would have landed my 5000 army in the Riverlands and then order my fleet to sail North. The Riverlands needed a decent leader desperately and Stannis fitted the bill perfectly. There's no one better in building a solid resistance to an invasion then Stannis and Brynden. 

Meanwhile his fleet would have made it easier for the Northern army to save the Riverlands. Instead of finding a pack of desperate Lords with not enough troops to defend their lands, Robb would have found a bruised but still operable Riverlands who had already declared for Stannis. The fact that the stag had done so much to safeguard Robb's uncle and grandfather would force the young wolf to bend the knee. 

At that point Renly would have no choice but to act. His older brother is stealing all glory and has just won the backing of both the North and the Riverlands. Soon enough, more people would start declaring to this king who actually bother fighting his enemies rather then observing them from afar. A trickle could easily become an unstoppable flood.

That would mean that the young stag would have no choice but to invade KL himself. Such decision would bring lion vs Rose+stag to the battlefield weakening them both. Whoever loses will probably be more willing to listen to Stannis proposals rather then to a  king whom he had beaten them on the battlefield, killing love ones in the process.

 

 

 

 

[LordImp]

8 hours ago, Fencer said:

You have to remember that this is Stannis.  He's exerting his claim on the throne because it is right.  He believes that the order of succession requires him to take the throne (and, actually, given the information that we as readers are privy to, he is correct) and the political realities of taking and keeping it are secondary to doing what he believes to be right.  And from his point of view, all he needs is for others to accept what is right and the throne is his.

It dosent matter that the throne is his by right . He needs support to keep the throne. And if no one wants him as king he will loose the throne right away

 

[LordImp]

The Faith of the seven might take up arms aswell. Will they accept a king that burns people alive to honour a fire god ? Doubt it. 

[Lord Vance II]

1 minute ago, LordImp said:

It dosent matter that the throne is his by right .

The point is that it matters to him. He has a one-track mind. Take the throne, figure it out from there. 

If facts like the Iron Throne's debt and Dany's coming army from hell were more publicly known, I think a fair amount of lords would, perhaps begrudgingly, admit that Stannis wouldn't be so bad a king. You don't have to love someone for them to be effective. I'm sure plenty couldn't get over his Stannis-ness, but I think there would be a lot who would see him as a lesser of two evils. Maybe not enough to fight for him, but enough not to fight against. Shireen is deformed, but still in line to be queen, right? She could be married to make an alliance. 

Not really sure what he would do about Robb. Maybe accept the loss of the North to have the strength to take the rest? Not really Stannis-like, but he knows better than to invade the North at full strength. 

 

[LordImp]

1 minute ago, Lord Vance II said:

The point is that it matters to him. He has a one-track mind. Take the throne, figure it out from there. 

If facts like the Iron Throne's debt and Dany's coming army from hell were more publicly known, I think a fair amount of lords would, perhaps begrudgingly, admit that Stannis wouldn't be so bad a king. You don't have to love someone for them to be effective. I'm sure plenty couldn't get over his Stannis-ness, but I think there would be a lot who would see him as a lesser of two evils. Maybe not enough to fight for him, but enough not to fight against. Shireen is deformed, but still in line to be queen, right? She could be married to make an alliance. 

Not really sure what he would do about Robb. Maybe accept the loss of the North to have the strength to take the rest? Not really Stannis-like, but he knows better than to invade the North at full strength. 

 

Yes It matters to Stannis. But It will not help him if the majority of Westeros is against him.

I think Stannis' only chance is to strike a deal with North , Vale and RL. The wild card is the Reach. With Joff and Tommen dead they have no reason to back Lannister and no reason to back Stannis either. 

[Lord Varys]

Stannis would have continued to try to kill all his enemies in any way that was possible to him. He made it clear he would not offer Robb or Lysa a deal. And he sure as hell would have killed all of Cersei's children if he had gotten around to do that.

In light of his religious policies we can be more than reasonably certain Westeros would never have accepted him as king even if he had somehow gotten around to defeat Tywin in battle. He was persecuting followers of the Faith and had actively turned against the Seven. The King on the Iron Throne is obliged to always protect and defend the Faith of the Andals. That was part of the deal Jaehaerys I made. If the king no longer followed the Seven the Faith was no longer obliged to remain disarmed. They would have taken up arms again, and Stannis would have fallen quickly enough.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

If Stannis took the Red Keep he would  execute Joffrey and take a lot of hostages.

Ilyn Payne would kill Sansa and Cersei so Robb Stark would be even more determined to defeat the Lannisters which he can only do with Stannis. Robb Stark knows his father died because he stood up for Stannis right to the Throne and he knows he is a honourable man so he would 200% join Stannis which would mean Stannis would gain the Riverlands and the North.

If Tywin laid siege he would be defeated unless he has Mace with him and still i would think they would have to starve Stannis out with Robb Stark in his back. What to keep in mind also is that Stannis army is largely made up of nobles. Mace Tyrells army is largely made up of footmen many of them have had their lords join King Stannis. If they were to fight there would be a lot of unloyal troops in Mace Tyrells army a lot. Also Stannis is the best commander in Westeros and he still has the largest navy on the west coast. Also since Stannis would have the redwyne twins hostage they would not use their fleet against stannis so stannis could supply his forces in the event of a siege.

Also Tywin and Mace would have to find out quickly that Tommen is alive for them to realisticly make an alliance and we dont know when they would find out it may have taken some time by which Mace would havbe withdrawn.

I would also say that if Mace joined Tywin there would be a good chance that Dorne would attack the reach forcing Mace to defend his lands. 

 

I would say that Stannis would be in a strong position to win the entire thing if he took kings landing.

[LordImp]

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis would have continued to try to kill all his enemies in any way that was possible to him. He made it clear he would not offer Robb or Lysa a deal. And he sure as hell would have killed all of Cersei's children if he had gotten around to do that.

In light of his religious policies we can be more than reasonably certain Westeros would never have accepted him as king even if he had somehow gotten around to defeat Tywin in battle. He was persecuting followers of the Faith and had actively turned against the Seven. The King on the Iron Throne is obliged to always protect and defend the Faith of the Andals. That was part of the deal Jaehaerys I made. If the king no longer followed the Seven the Faith was no longer obliged to remain disarmed. They would have taken up arms again, and Stannis would have fallen quickly enough.

Exactly. 

[Lord Varys]

19 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Exactly. 

We also have to keep in mind how unpopular the man is. People don't need all that much of an incentive to turn against him. Considering how quickly Roose and Walder turned against Robb one should expect some lord to betray and kill Stannis very soon.

In fact, it is still not all that unlikely that Stannis will end up being sold to his enemies. Nobody likes that guy, and if he ever finds himself in a hopeless position his men will most definitely desert him and/or sell him to the enemy rather than, well, die for him.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

3 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

i doubt robb would bend the knee. remember, he didn't actively proclaim himself KitN, but was proclaimed so by his bannermen and lords. even if robb wanted to bow to stannis's prerogative, his own nobles wouldnt have let him. the north has a stronger two way relationship between its ruling lord and his vassal nobles. that something to do with the First men culture of honor and obligation, that we have seen stronger in the north than almost anywhere else. if stannis was willing to compromise, which would be as likely as a snow fairy in hell, then he could hav had an alliance with robb to crush the lannisters, then let stannis rule the vale, westerlands, reach, stormlands, and dorne.

but with that typical baratheon belligerence, he would have demanded that robb bedn the knee, with no compromise, which might lead to him fighting the northerners and riverlords as much as he fights the lannisters. 

another one of stannis's problems is he so damn unlikable, rigid, and unforgiving. he seems to takes perceived slights against himself almost as badly as a lannister.

then there is melisandre. she was urging stannis to turn his campaign for the iron throne into a religious crusade. that alone would likely turn most of the realm against him. few things get folks up in arms than an attack on their beliefs, especially is the folks trying to convert you are willing to burn you at the stake if you don't agree with them. thats what happens, sans burning, when the andals invaded against the First Men in the first place, using the religion that they were bringing, the Faith of the Seven, to rouse the andal warriors to a religious fervor. it made them much more driven to fight, to be aggressive, but also led to atrocities. if the religion of the Red God took off in the same manner, stannis turning his war into a crusade, it just might unite every kingdom against him.

Melissandres role was severely diminished before the attack on kings landing in order to keep stannis new allies happy (storm and reach lords). She was sent to Dragon Stone against her wishes.

Theres no reason to think he would had changed his strategy after a big win in KL.

He only turns again to the red woman when he is in an extremly dare situation with no real chances of succes.

The same has happened in the north with the clans. The witch has been left at the wall.

 

[The Commentator]

15 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

Stannis taking and retaining the throne was always a long shot if not near hopeless and he probably knows that. 

Correct.  Very few people wanted Stannis on the throne.  That was why the Tyrells supported someone like Renly, who was farther down the line of succession.  We get hints as to why people didn't like Stannis but I suppose we will learn more in tWoW. 

Even the normally behaved Tyrells refused to back Stannis.  The reasoning being if the Baratheons could depose the rightful king with a 300-year-old legacy to support his right to rule, why can't a Baratheon heir with no legacy be deposed.  Maybe there really is comeuppance.  The Baratheons are getting pay back for their sins.  Petyr Baelish has so far been the agent of the destruction of houses Baratheon, Stark, and Arryn. The primary enemies of the Targaryen monarchy during Robert's Rebellion. 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

4 hours ago, LordImp said:

It dosent matter that the throne is his by right . He needs support to keep the throne. And if no one wants him as king he will loose the throne right away

 

Who will take it off him? The north/RL have no interest in it, Dorne lacks the strenght to take it and will not move outside their region.  Tywin can't even beat Robb.  The only power left is Highgarden and if Stannis is in KL how will they cross the Blackwater to take the city, but more to the point why would they want to?

Sure they might not like the man but they arnt going to back a loosing Tywin for no reason.

[LordImp]

13 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Who will take it off him? The north/RL have no interest in it, Dorne lacks the strenght to take it and will not move outside their region.  Tywin can't even beat Robb.  The only power left is Highgarden and if Stannis is in KL how will they cross the Blackwater to take the city, but more to the point why would they want to?

Sure they might not like the man but they arnt going to back a loosing Tywin for no reason.

As mentioned by others The faith of the seven will most likely start a uprising against Stannis. 

Stannis has converted and persecuted followers of the 7. If the faith rebels against Stannis it could very well be that the Reach also decides to go against Stannis.

If Robb refuses to give up North to Stannis , then sooner or later Stannis will move against North . 

If Stannis suceeded at Blackwater he would basically just be king of Crownlands and Stormlands . And we know that Stannis wants all of the 7 kingdoms . This will lead him into a war he cant win , unless he gets backing from Reach , North or Vale. 

A king Stannis on the IT without support might very well temp other houses to attack KL and become the new royal house.