If Aegon is false, why would Varys lie?

[Reginald blackfield]

This concerns the f(Aegon) theory, which I am actually on the fence about. I do think that the cloth dragon on a pole in the House of the Undying suggests that we will see a false Targaryen, but there are in my opinion a few problems with the idea of Aegon being false. One problem for me being the fact that Varys mentioned that he was Aegon to a Kevan Lannister. Why would he bother to lie if he was dying?

[The Sleeper]

He didn't lie. The kid's name is actually Aegon. It just so happens that he is not Rhaegar's son.

[Leo of House Cartel]

Because you never know who might be listening.

[Wolf of The Wall]

I see that question asked a lot. My counter question why wouldn't he? Because Kevan is dying you say. I can say the same thing. Why would Varys reveal a dangerous truth about a plot himself conspired for years like that. Out of spite. I don't think Varys holds any grudges against Kevan Lannister. If Aegon's identity is going to be revealed as false it will be an important plot point. Revealing like that is very soap-opera like and A Song of Ice and Fire is not one.

[TMIFairy]

2 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

Because you never know who might be listening.

This.

Also, by this point Varys might be losing control over his Web Of Lies - he himself no longer remembers what is the truth and what isn't.

Or he has began to believe his own lies himself?

But I think that Leo is on the money. If anybody overheard this then the lie about fAegon would gain credibility due to "Varys would not lie to a dying man as it served no purpose."

[Leo of House Cartel]

10 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

 

Also, by this point Varys might be losing control over his Web Of Lies - he himself no longer remembers what is the truth and what isn't.

Or he has began to believe his own lies himself?

Interesting thoughts dude, Varys buying into his own bullshit and thus decieving himself could make for a very poetic way to begin the Spider's downfall.

[The Sleeper]

It's not a matter of lies. It's more than a scam. It is his life's work.

[norwaywolf123]

39 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

This.

Also, by this point Varys might be losing control over his Web Of Lies - he himself no longer remembers what is the truth and what isn't.

Or he has began to believe his own lies himself?

But I think that Leo is on the money. If anybody overheard this then the lie about fAegon would gain credibility due to "Varys would not lie to a dying man as it served no purpose."

good summary

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

5 hours ago, Reginald blackfield said:

This concerns the f(Aegon) theory, which I am actually on the fence about. I do think that the cloth dragon on a pole in the House of the Undying suggests that we will see a false Targaryen, but there are in my opinion a few problems with the idea of Aegon being false. One problem for me being the fact that Varys mentioned that he was Aegon to a Kevan Lannister. Why would he bother to lie if he was dying?

 

I'll let Littlefinger answer this one.

“Thank you.” She felt absurdly proud for puzzling it out, but confused as well. “I’m not, though. Your daughter. Not truly. I mean, I pretend to be Alayne, but you know . . .”

Littlefinger put a finger to her lips. “I know what I know, and so do you. Some things are best left unsaid, sweetling.”

“Even when we are alone?”

“Especially when we are alone. Elsewise a day will come when a servant walks into a room unannounced, or a guardsman at the door chances to hear something he should not. Do you want more blood on your pretty little hands, my darling?”

And let's reverse your question: why would Varys, for Kevan, the dying man, start a bad habit of making exceptions and spilling secrets that should be definitely left unspilled?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

3 hours ago, Lew Theobald said:

He wasn't lying.  He does not know that Doran Martell swapped the baby with another, after it was smuggled to Dorne.

Another baby swap theory, yay...

[Lost Melnibonean]

Here's the passage...

Quote

Ser Kevan half-sat and half-fell onto the window seat. What ... who ... A quarrel was sunk almost to the fletching in his chest. No. No, that was how my brother died. Blood was seeping out around the shaft. "Pycelle," he muttered, confused. "Help me ... I ... "

Then he saw. Grand Maester Pycelle was seated at his table, his head pillowed on the great leather-bound tome before him. Sleeping, Kevan thought until he blinked and saw the deep red gash in the old man's spotted skull and the blood pooled beneath his head, staining the pages of his book. All around his candle were bits of bone and brain, islands in a lake of melted wax.

He wanted guards, Ser Kevan thought. I should have sent him guards. Could Cersei have been right all along? Was this his nephew's work?

"Tyrion?" he called. "Where ... ?"

"Far away," a half-familiar voice replied.

He stood in a pool of shadow by a bookcase, plump, pale-faced, round-shouldered, clutching a crossbow in soft powdered hands. Silk slippers swaddled his feet.

"Varys?" The eunuch set the crossbow down.

"Ser Kevan. Forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children."

I cannot take that last sentence at face value. The first statement, the plea for forgiveness, and the testament that Varys is not murdering Kevan out of malice appears believable. Kevan's good works are an obstacle to Varys's effort to pave the way for the Blackfyre. And that ties into the penultimate sentence, that he murdered Kevan for the realm, not for the good of the realm, mind you, but for the realm. And by realm, Varys means Aegon. The king and the land are one, after all. But for the children? Which children would those be? The ones Varys has mutilated and disabled to serve his purpose? The little ones that were slaughtered or traumatized and left for dead, especially in the Riverlands, during the War of the Five Kings, like poor Weasel? Meribald works for the children, not Varys. 

Quote

"I have children. I have a wife. Oh, Dorna. Pain washed over him. He closed his eyes, opened them again. "There are there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle."

"But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes but you were threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So ... 

Again, I ask, if Kevan is laying the foundation for a lasting peace, and if Varys wants a lasting peace, why did Varys murder Kevan?

Quote

A gust of wind blew up. Ser Kevan shivered violently. "Are you cold, my lord?" asked Varys. "Do forgive me. The Grand Maester befouled himself in dying, and the stink was so abominable that I thought I might choke."

Ser Kevan tried to rise, but the strength had left him. He could not feel his legs.

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen."

Is more war, on the heels of a horribly destructive conflict, and at the onset of what will most likely be a brutal winter, truly in the best interest of the children?

Quote

"Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him."

"Aegon?" For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. "Dead. He's dead."

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here."

Now, we learn, without doubt, that Varys, along with Illyrio, supports Aegon. And there is no denying that the George is leading us to believe that Kevan and Varys are referring to the same Aegon. But is the George actually telling us that these Aegons are one and the same, or is he only leading us to this conclusion? The ambiguity suggests the latter. 

Quote

"Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Based on this passage, and Vary's rise from a challenging childhood, many readers believe that Varys wants to install a benevolent sovereign. But I interpret this as Varys saying something like, "Oho, our claimant is better than your claimant." It reminds me of Eustace's monologue to Dunk about the virtues of Daemon Blackfyre over Daeron Targaryen, albeit for different justifications. But do the ends justify the means? Did Varys spend the last couple of decades putting the children first? 

Quote

Kevan Lannister tried to cry out ... to his guards, his wife, his brother ... but the words would not come. Blood dribbled from his mouth. He shuddered violently.

"I am sorry." Varys wrung his hands. "You are suffering, I know, yet here I stand going on like some silly old woman. Time to make an end to it."

Notice how the George acknowledges the evil monologue to the reader. 

[cgrav]

I'm not sure that Varys outright lies. A lie can be proved false and that would be the end of Varys's head and body's time together. Clever omissions and bad advice, however, contain no falsity, and it's much harder to blame someone for ignorance than dishonesty.

Illyrio is the liar, because he reports to no one (NOT an FM reference). His story about the woman in the Lysene pillow house is false, as we later find Tyrion reading a fictional story about exactly such a woman. 

So I'd say Varys is telling some manner of truth, and only does so because he expects it to be heard by others in the Red Keep. The bodies will be found within hours, and any little birds who were listening will divulge the information to Cersei... including Varys's culpability in the murders.

This could well be how Varys has chosen to out himself as treasoner, and in doing so elicit some reaction from Cersei and the rest of the kingdom. We have long suspected that the first invasion - intended to be by Viserys - was planned as a distraction to soften Westeros. Taking Storm's End and igniting a succession controversy could still accomplish that. 

Of course allowing Danaerys to be the hero conflicts with the Blackfyre conspiracy, but perhaps they've given up on trying to rope her into the plot, and just hope that she will join forces with Aegon whenever she gets to Westeros. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Varys life's work is (f)Aegon. Everything he has done in the books has lead to him putting his (f)Aegon on the Iron Throne. To Varys (f)Aegon is as real as any other claimant. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

26 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I'm not sure that Varys outright lies. A lie can be proved false and that would be the end of Varys's head and body's time together. Clever omissions and bad advice, however, contain no falsity, and it's much harder to blame someone for ignorance than dishonesty.

Huh? I wouldn't expect the hypothetical someone, who was about to chop Varys' head off for lying, to reconsider because of "didn't technically lie, examine closely the extremely precise and careful wording". The Spider can shout "Hey, man, it was only a clever omission!" all the way to the scaffold, I can't imagine anyone in the Seven Kingdoms giving many fucks.

[cgrav]

5 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Huh? I don't see the hypothetical someone, who was about to chop Varys' head off for lying, to reconsider because of "didn't technically lie, examine closely the extremely precise and careful wording". The Spider can shout "Hey, man, it was only a clever omission!" all the way to the scaffold, I can't imagine anyone in the Seven Kingdoms giving many fucks.

The obvious point would be to avoid suspicion in the first place, which is a lot easier without affirmative "facts" that can be contradicted. Nobody expects him to be omniscient, so if he doesn't know some detail, he just doesn't know. 

[Corvus corone]

6 hours ago, Leo of House Cartel said:

Because you never know who might be listening.

And, in particular, Varys's "little birds" were present, if that point hasn't been made clear before. Mute or not, they might still find a way to spread the secret, so Varys had no other choice but to lie.

I really love the Blackfyre theory, but I wonder whether this was Varys's original plan at the beginning of the series. I mean, ASOIAF was originally planned to be a trilogy and, later, a tetralogy, with ADWD as the final novel. This was George's plan back in 1998, the year in which ACOK was released and he probabyl started his work on ASOS; however, I don't know any clear hint on "Aegon" before ADWD - quite late to introduce a character with such an importance for the story, isn't it.

OK, I always had in mind that Aegon might have some relevance for the story because the way George kept reminding us that he was defaced seemed very suspicious for me. When Edric Dayne was introduced, my first thought actually was: "Hey, might Aegon still be alive?" However, nothing of this seemed to be connected to Varys, and there should have been stronger hints if this has always been supposed to Varys's plan, at least for my liking.

[Fencer]

33 minutes ago, Corvus corone said:

And, in particular, Varys's "little birds" were present, if that point hasn't been made clear before. Mute or not, they might still find a way to spread the secret, so Varys had no other choice but to lie.

I have one quibble with this... That is that Varys didn't have to say a damn thing.  Ok, maybe it is just for evil monologue purposes, or maybe he is secretly Cobra Commander, but there is no reason Varys has to say anything in this scene.  If he did not want details of his conversation getting out, Kevan wasn't in much of a position to demand a dialogue anyway.  Just slit his throat and be done.

To me, this implies that either:

• Varys knows someone is observing all of this, and wants to plant information
• Varys is reasonably sure that the only potential observers are his little birds, and has no fear whatsoever of this information being passed on, and therefore feels free to speak his mind at this time.

[Makk]

39 minutes ago, Corvus corone said:

And, in particular, Varys's "little birds" were present, if that point hasn't been made clear before. Mute or not, they might still find a way to spread the secret, so Varys had no other choice but to lie.

Exactly. Well, mislead rather than lie.

Quote

 

"I am sorry." Varys wrung his hands. "You are suffering, I know, yet here I stand going on like some silly old woman. Time to make an end to it." The eunuch pursed his lips and gave a little whistle.

Ser Kevan was cold as ice, and every labored breath sent a fresh stab of pain through him. He glimpsed movement, heard the soft scuffling sound of slippered feet on stone. A child emerged from a pool of darkness, a pale boy in a ragged robe, no more than nine or ten. Another rose up behind the Grand Maester's chair. The girl who had opened the door for him was there as well. They were all around him, half a dozen of them, white-faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together.

 

 

 

[Corvus corone]

24 minutes ago, Fencer said:

I have one quibble with this... That is that Varys didn't have to say a damn thing.  Ok, maybe it is just for evil monologue purposes, or maybe he is secretly Cobra Commander, but there is no reason Varys has to say anything in this scene.  If he did not want details of his conversation getting out, Kevan wasn't in much of a position to demand a dialogue anyway.  Just slit his throat and be done.

To me, this implies that either:

• Varys knows someone is observing all of this, and wants to plant information
• Varys is reasonably sure that the only potential observers are his little birds, and has no fear whatsoever of this information being passed on, and therefore feels free to speak his mind at this time.

"Aegon" has already landed at that point, so there is no reason to make a secret out of this. Since varys does nothing without ulterior motives, I tend to believe that he wants to undermine Tommens authority by spreading the rumour about a claimant that's exactly the opposite.

[Lost Melnibonean]

52 minutes ago, Corvus corone said:

And, in particular, Varys's "little birds" were present, if that point hasn't been made clear before. Mute or not, they might still find a way to spread the secret, so Varys had no other choice but to lie.

I really love the Blackfyre theory, but I wonder whether this was Varys's original plan at the beginning of the series. I mean, ASOIAF was originally planned to be a trilogy and, later, a tetralogy, with ADWD as the final novel. This was George's plan back in 1998, the year in which ACOK was released and he probabyl started his work on ASOS; however, I don't know any clear hint on "Aegon" before ADWD - quite late to introduce a character with such an importance for the story, isn't it.

OK, I always had in mind that Aegon might have some relevance for the story because the way George kept reminding us that he was defaced seemed very suspicious for me. When Edric Dayne was introduced, my first thought actually was: "Hey, might Aegon still be alive?" However, nothing of this seemed to be connected to Varys, and there should have been stronger hints if this has always been supposed to Varys's plan, at least for my liking.

From the 1993 letter that was released about a year ago, we know that A Song of Ice and Fire is divided into three main conflicts, the War of the Five Kings, the Second Dance of the Dragons, and the War for the Dawn. So, who would be Daenerys's dancing partner? 

The first time we read the word Blackfyre was in Catelyn IV, Storm 35...

Quote

"Precedent," she said bitterly. "Yes, Aegon the Fourth legitimized all his bastards on his deathbed. And how much pain, grief, war, and murder grew from that? I know you trust Jon. But can you trust his sons? Or their sons? The Blackfyre pretenders troubled the Targaryens for five generations, until Barristan the Bold slew the last of them on the Stepstones. If you make Jon legitimate, there is no way to turn him bastard again. Should he wed and breed, any sons you may have by Jeyne will never be safe.

We read Blackfyre again in the following chapter, Davos IV, Storm 36...

Quote

"It has always been so. I am not . . . I am not a cruel man, Ser Davos. You know me. Have known me long. This is not my decree. It has always been so, since Aegon's day and before. Daemon Blackfyre, the brothers Toyne, the Vulture King, Grand Maester Hareth . . . traitors have always paid with their lives . . . even Rhaenyra Targaryen. She was daughter to one king and mother to two more, yet she died a traitor's death for trying to usurp her brother's crown. It is law. Law, Davos. Not cruelty.

The reader noticed here that this Daemon Blackfyre was mentioned with, among others, the brothers Toyne and Rhaenyra Targaryen.

And we read Blackfyre again in the chapter after that, Jaime V, Storm 37...

Quote

He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffin's men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

Very interestingly here, we read Daemon Blackfyre mentioned in passing when Jaime told us about the griffin's part in Robert's Rebellion. From Arya V, Storm 29, we knew that dancing griffin was Jon Connington. And we knew from Daenerys I, Storm 8, that young Lord Connington was dear to Prince Rhaegar.

So, in three successive chapters in the first half of Storm, the George presented us with this Blackfyre, and associated this Blackfyre with House Toyne, Rhaenyra Targaryen, and Jon Connington. Later in Storm, we read Blackfyre one more time in Jaime VIII, Storm 67...

Quote

Ser Barristan of House Selmy. . . . . Slew Maelys the Monstrous, last of the Blackfyre Pretenders, in single combat during the War of the Ninepenny Kings. . . 

And that's all we knew about Blackfyre from the early novels: The traitor Daemon Blackfyre was a bastard legitimized by Aegon the IV, and his line continued to trouble the crown for five generations until Barristan the Bold slew Maelys the Monstrous, who was the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders, during the War of the Ninepenny Kings. In fact it was only in correspondence with fans released 06/13/2001, nearly a year after Storm had been published that the George first revealed the name of the primary Valyrian steel blade of House Targaryen.

There were more bits and pieces of Blackfyre backstory in the early novels, but we did not have enough information to realize it. It was not until three years after Storm, but two years before Feast, that we got The Sworn Sword in Legends II, and the first Blackfyre Rebellion was described in detail. We also learned about Daemon's half-brothers called the Great Bastards, Aegor Rivers called Bittersteel, born to House Bracken, and Brynden Rivers called Bloodraven, born to House Blackwood, for the first time.

Daemon, a true warrior, had reversed the Targaryen colors from red on black to black on red, and he had taken the name Blackfyre after his father had given him the primary Valyrian steel blade of House Targaryen. Daeron II, the presumably legitimate son of Aegon IV, had given the hand of his trueborn sister Daenerys to the Prince of Dorne, although it was widely believed that Daemon and Daenerys were in love. Daemon acted chivalrously on the field during the battle that ended his rebellion, and Bloodraven, who fought for Daeron against Daemon and Bittersteel, took advantage, killing Daemon and his twin sons Aegon and Aemon. Bittersteel put out one of Bloodraven's eyes before the battle ended. Bittersteel escaped to Tyrosh with more of Daemon's sons, and he continued to plot rebellion. Some Blackfyre loyalists followed Bittersteel across the Narrow Sea, and some were pardoned and remained in the Seven Kingdoms, pining for Bittersteel's return. Such Blackfyre loyalists hoped to achieve material, political, and social gains, but they also believed in the Blackfyre cause. And they hated Bloodraven who had become the Hand of King Aerys I, son of Daeron II.

That Bittersteel retreated to Tyrosh was interesting since the reader recalled that the brother of the Archon of Tyrosh was a guest in Drogo's manse when Daenerys was betrothed to the Dothraki Khal in Daenerys I, Game 3.

We also read great detail about Bloodraven, an albino with a wine-stain birthmark across one of his cheeks, who was said to have had a thousand eyes and one. He maintained a company of archers called the Raven's Teeth, he wore smoke and scarlet, and he wielded Dark Sister, the other ancestral Valyrian steel blade of House Targaryen. He was rumored to have been a sorcerer, and his paramour, Lady Shiera was said to have practiced black arts, including bathing in the blood of virgins to maintain her youth.

Five years after Storm, but just two years after The Sworn Sword, we got Feast. Unfortunately, it did not continue until nearly six years later with Dance, but the George decided to spilt what should have been one novel, Feast and the first half of Dance, into two novels, and it took him a long time to solve his Meereenese knot before he finally gave us Dance. 

In Samwell I, Feast 5, we learned that Daeron II was rumored to have been fathered by Aemon Targaryen of the Kingsguard called the Dragonknight, and not by Aegon IV the Unworthy. And we recalled that even Maester Aemon leant credibility to the rumor when he told Jon Snow of his own heritage way back in Jon VIII, Game 60. Sansa had told us back in Sansa II, Storm 16 that Naerys was Aegon's sister and queen, and that he never harmed her, perhaps out of fear for their brother the Dragonknight. And the very attentive reader would have recalled way back in Sansa I, Game 15, when Sansa was about to go riding with Joffrey near the Trident, she told us that Prince Aemon the Dragonknight championed Queen Naerys's honor against evil Ser Morgil's slanders. A little later, when the Ned told Sansa that her engagement with Joffrey would soon be over in Sansa III, Game 44, she suggested that Queen Naerys loved Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. In Tyrion IX, Clash 41, she suggested that Prince Aemon the Dragonknight cried the day Princess Naerys wed his brother Aegon. A song was sung about the romance during the Battle of the Blackwater in Sansa VI, Clash 60. As Meera was telling Bran about the Tourney at Harrenhal in Bran II, Storm 24, Bran was telling us that the Dragonknight once won a tourney as the Knight of Tears, so he could name his sister the queen of love and beauty in place of the king's mistress. A few chapters later in The Soiled Knight, Feast 13, Arys Oakheart suggested that the tale of Prince Aemon's treason with Queen Naerys was only that, a tale, a lie his brother told when he wished to set his trueborn son aside in favor of his bastard. However, it was clear that Arys was fighting his lust for Arianne, and losing miserably, so his denial lacked at least some credibility. Arianne told us that Terrence Toyne of the Kingsguard had an affair with the king's mistress. Later in Jaime II, Feast 16, Jaime told us that Aegon the Unworthy put Terrence to death for the act. Cersei added that Aegon had him dismembered in Cersei IV, Feast 17. Jaime told us in Jaime VII, Feast 44, that the brothers Toyne, the same brothers that Stannis referred to when he mentioned Daemon Blackfyre's treason, tried to kill Aegon IV, but that the Dragonknight saved his brother.

Arys and Arianne also told us about Rhaenyra Targaryen in The Soiled Knight, Feast 13, another of the traitors Stannis mentioned along with Daemon Blackfyre back in Storm. She was intended by her father Viserys I, to follow him, but the Lord Commander of his Kingsguard, Ser Criston Cole, called the Kingmaker, set her brother Aegon II against her, bringing on the Dance of the Dragons, possibly out of revenge for having been spurned by Rhaenyra. Of course the truly attentive reader of Feast would then recall Bran II, Game 8, wherein Bran told us that the twins Ser Erryk and Ser Arryk, had died on one another's swords hundreds of years ago, when brother fought sister in the war the singers called the Dance of the Dragons. The complex round of interwoven ballads called the Dance of the Dragons was mentioned in passing in Eddard VII, Game 30. During the purple wedding, in Tyrion VIII, Storm 60, Tyrion told us that the ballads were more properly a song for two singers, male and female. And we knew from Jaime after he had returned to King's Landing in Jaime VIII, Storm 67 that the Kingsguard had been divided during the Dance of the Dragons. Criston Cole, who had been Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, had served both Viserys I and Aegon II. He was called Kingmaker. A little more detail was added in Tyrion III, Dance 8, when Tyrion told us that Aegon's brother Aemond rode Vhagar and that Rhaenyra rode Syrax. The Dance of the Dragons was mentioned a few more times in Dance, but no more detail was added until we read The Princess and the Queen after Dance.

And we learned in Feast the rest of Jon Connington's backstory when Jaime returned to Harrenhal on his way back to Riverrun...

Quote

Jon Connington had been Prince Rhaegar's friend. When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship. But the Mad King was always chopping off his Hands. He had chopped Lord Jon after the Battle of the Bells, stripping him of honors, lands, and wealth, and packing him off across the sea to die in exile, where he soon drank himself to death. The cousin, though--Red Ronnets father--had joined the rebellion and been rewarded with Griffin's Roost after the Trident. He only got the castle, though; Robert kept the gold, and bestowed the greater part of the Connington lands on more fervent supporters.

Jaime III, Feast 27

The very attentive reader would then recall this earlier passage...

Quote

"Shall I tell the steward to prepare chambers in Maegor's Holdfast?"

"My thanks, Lord Petyr, but I will be taking Lord Stark's former quarters in the Tower of the Hand."

Littlefinger laughed. "You're a braver man than me, Lannister. You do know the fate of our last two Hands?"

"Two? If you mean to frighten me, why not say four?"

"Four?" Littlefinger raised an eyebrow. "Did the Hands before Lord Arryn meet some dire end in the Tower? I'm afraid I was too young to pay them much mind."

"Aerys Targaryen's last Hand was killed during the Sack of King's Landing, though I doubt he'd had time to settle into the Tower. He was only Hand for a fortnight. The one before him was burned to death. And before them came two others who died landless and penniless in exile, and counted themselves lucky. I believe my lord father was the last Hand to depart King's Landing with his name, properties, and parts all intact."

Tyrion I, Clash 3

Of course, we also saw the Blackfyre revisited in The Soiled Knight, Feast 13...

Quote

". . . Are you aware that the Golden Company has broken its contract with Myr?"

"Sellswords break their contracts all the time."

"Not the Golden Company. Our word is good as gold has been their boast since the days of Bittersteel. Myr is on the point of war with Lys and Tyrosh. Why break a contract that offered them the prospect of good wages and good plunder?"

"Perhaps Lys offered them better wages. Or Tyrosh."

"No, she said. I would believe it of any of the other free companies, yes. Most of them would change sides for half a groat. The Golden Company is different. A brotherhood of exiles and the sons of exiles, united by the dream of Bittersteel. It's home they want, as much as gold. Lord Yronwood knows that as well as I do. His forebears rode with Bittersteel during three of the Blackfyre Rebellions." She took Ser Arys by the hand, and wove her fingers through his own. "Have you ever seen the arms of House Toland of Ghost Hill?"

He had to think a moment. "A dragon eating its own tail?"

"The dragon is time. It has no beginning and no ending, so all things come round again." Anders Yronwood is Criston Cole reborn. He whispers in my brother's ear that he should rule after my father, that it is not right for men to kneel to women . . . that Arianne especially is unfit to rule, being the willful wanton that she is." She tossed her hair defiantly. "So your two princesses share a common cause, ser . . . and they share as well a knight who claims to love them both, but will not fight for them."

This was the first we learned of the most formidable of the sellsword companies, which was founded by Bittersteel with those Blackfyre loyalists that had followed him across the Narrow Sea. They continued to fight for gold, but we were told that they want home, i.e., the Seven Kingdoms. We also read that Bittersteel returned two more times to lead the Third Blackfyre Rebellion and the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion. And then, perhaps most importantly, we read the arms of House Toland, a dragon eating its own tail, and we were told that the dragon was time, and all things come round again. This was not just homage to Robert Jordan's The Wheel of Time. The George was clearly telling us early in the second act of ASOIAF, when Daenerys Targaryen would return to reclaim her fathers throne, that the Blackfyre, or at least something like it, would return. And the passage recalled another homage to Robert Jordan and the Wheel of Time. Note that Jordan's true name was James Rigney...

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"Archmaester Rigney once wrote that history is a wheel, for the nature of man is fundamentally unchanging. What has happened before will perforce happen again, he said."

The Kraken's Daughter, Feast 11

As the saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh, first mentioned in Tyrion III, Storm 19. In Cersei V, Feast 24, Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr. But the Archon of Tyrosh was involved in Doran Martell's plot to wed Arianne to Viserys, as we learned in Daenerys VI, Dance 43. And while the George told us in an SSM that neither Illyrio nor Varys knew of that plot, we discovered in Daenerys VI, Dance 43 that Doran had been waiting for Viserys to find an army in Essos, and we recalled that Illyrio had promised Viserys command of ten thousand Dothraki warriors in exchange for his sisters hand for Drogo all the way back in Daenerys I, Game 3.

We also learned just a bit more about the War of the Ninepenny Kings, during which Barristan slew Maelys Blackfyre. In Jaime V, Feast 33, we learned that Brynden Tully, called the Blackfish, fought in the war, as did Septon Meribald. And Meribald, referring to the First Blackfyre Rebellion told us the tale of the Clanking Dragon...

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When Podrick asked the name of the inn where they hoped to spend the night, Septon Meribald seized upon the question eagerly, perhaps to take their minds off the grisly sentinels along the roadside. "The Old Inn, some call it. There has been an inn there for many hundreds of years, though this inn was only raised during the reign of the first Jaehaerys, the king who built the kingsroad. Jaehaerys and his queen slept there during their journeys, it is said. For a time the inn was known as the Two Crowns in their honor, until one innkeep built a bell tower, and changed it to the Bellringer Inn. Later it passed to a crippled knight named Long Jon Heddle, who took up ironworking when he grew too old to fight. He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon."

"Is the dragon sign still there?" asked Podrick.

"No," said Septon Meribald. "When the smith's son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragons heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."

Brienne VII, Feast 37

We would hear more about House Heddle after Feast. But for now, the George was clearly foreshadowing the return of the black dragon disguised as a red dragon. And note that what washed up red with rust was one of the dragon's heads.

Maester Aemon gave us a bit more of Bloodraven's backstory (another thing that would come round again) in Feast, as well...

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The old man heard him. Though Aemon's eyes had dimmed and gone dark, there was nothing wrong with his ears. "I was not born blind," he reminded them. "When last I passed this way, I saw every rock and tree and whitecap, and watched the grey gulls flying in our wake. I was five-and-thirty and had been a maester of the chain for sixteen years. Egg wanted me to help him rule, but I knew my place was here. He sent me north aboard the Golden Dragon, and insisted that his friend Ser Duncan see me safe to Eastwatch. No recruit had arrived at the Wall with so much pomp since Nymeria sent the Watch six kings in golden fetters. Egg emptied out the dungeons too, so I would not need to say my vows alone. My honor guard, he called them. One was no less a man than Brynden Rivers. Later he was chosen lord commander."

"Bloodraven?" said Dareon. "I know a song about him. 'A Thousand Eyes, and One,' it's called. But I thought he lived a hundred years ago."

"We all did. Once I was as young as you."

Samwell II, Feast 15

Then, a little more than one year before Dance, the George gave us The Mystery Knight, of which the Second Blackfyre Rebellion, a failed attempt to rally support by the second Daemon Blackfyre, was the subject.

We learned that Bloodraven kept the royal fleet on the east coast, anticipating that Bittersteel would return from Tyrosh, with Daemon's five remaining sons. However, this action left the west coast vulnerable to reavers from the Iron Islands. The tale opened with Dunk recalling a septon preaching against Bloodraven and calling for the return of the Blackfyre, one of Daemon's seven sons. We learned that bastards, such as Glendon Ball, saw Daemon as a hero, who deserved to be king. Along with Bittersteel, Glendon's natural father Ser Quentyn Ball, the master-at-arms at the Red Keep, had encouraged Daemon to rebel after he was passed over for the Kingsguard, having gone so far as to set his wife aside in order to take his vows. We learned that many houses were internally divided between the black and the red, some on principle, some for strategic advantage. The Blackfyres minted their own coin, and it was treason to hold or pass it. Before revealing himself at the traitors' tourney at Whitewalls, a clandestine gathering of Blackfyre loyalists and men nursing grievances against the Iron Throne, Daemon II assumed the name John the Fiddler and dyed his hair black. The traitors' tourney failed to rally support in part because Daemon II did not wield Blackfyre. Many guessed that he could not be his father's son since Bittersteel had not joined himI or given him Blackfyre. Bloodraven arrived with a host at his back and took Daemon II into custody, holding him hostage against Bittersteel and Daemon's brother Haegon.

And we learned more about Bloodraven's sorcerous ways...

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How many eyes does Lord Bloodraven have? the riddle ran. A thousand eyes, and one. Some claimed the King's Hand was a student of the dark arts who could change his face, put on the likeness of a one-eyed dog, even turn into a mist. Packs of gaunt gray wolves hunted down his foes, men said, and carrion crows spied for him and whispered secrets in his ear. Most of the tales were only tales, Dunk did not doubt, but no one could doubt that Bloodraven had informers everywhere.

...

A single white dragon announced the presence of the King's Hand, Lord Brynden Rivers.

And it was evident that the character Maynard Plumm was Bloodraven wearing a glamor.

Interestingly, following Meribald's tale of the Clanking Dragon in Feast, we learned a great deal more about Black Tom Heddle in The Mystery Knight. Ser Tommard Heddle was a fighter of some renown. Dunk managed to kill Tom when Tom tried to take Egg into custody, but apparently Tom, who was wed to one of Lord Butterwell's daughters left heirs. We recalled way back in Catelyn V, Game 28 that Masha Heddle was the innkeeper at the Inn of the Crossroads, and that the Inn had a bell tower with a very loud bell, but Masha was hung by Lannister forces in Tyrion VII, Game 56, apparently in retribution for Tyrion's abduction. And we learned in Brienne VII, Feast 37 that the Inn at the Crossroads was the same as the Clanking Dragon. After the war quieted down in the Riverlands, two of Masha's nieces, Willow and Jeyne, returned to keep the inn in the Heddle family. They were affiliated with the Brotherhood without Banners.

All of this must be considered against the central mystery of the second conflict: What is Illyrio up to? In Daenerys I, Game 3, we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Viserys believes that Illyrio is doing this for profit, believing that Illyrio expects to be rewarded when he comes into his throne, but Daenerys’s misgivings, as well as the fact that they were left to run from city to city for several years before Illyrio began to succor them, suggests right away to the reader that Illyrio’s motives should be questioned. Here is the most telling quote...

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Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes

When Viserys talks about making good his claim to the Iron Throne, he declares that he will kill Robert Baratheon himself, to which Illyrio replies, “That would be most fitting," but Daenerys notices “the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips,” which Viserys fails to notice. And Illyrio appears to feed into Viserys’s paranoia about being pursued by assassins sent by Robert Baratheon, which we learn just nine chapters later is a false belief. The reader should realize that Illyrio is playing the Targlings false. 

Illyrio, of course, attends the wedding feast in Daenerys II, Game 11. Once again, we see a hint that Illyrio has some ulterior motive. When Viserys claims that he is “no lesser man,” but “the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms,” and that “[t]he dragon does not beg," Daenerys notices...

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Illyrio smiled enigmatically and tore a wing from the duck. Honey and grease ran over his fingers and dripped down into his beard as he nibbled at the tender meat

We see Illyrio, incognito, one more time before we meet him again, much later, with Tyrion Dance in Arya III, Game 32. Here we learn that Varys is in league with Illyrio, and notice who gives the command: Illyrio, and who follows the order: Varys. Varys is working for Illyrio, not the other way around. When Illyrio tells Varys to delay the coming Stark-Lannister conflict, Varys asks what he should do, and Illyrio responds...

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"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." ...

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. . . 

I love this exchange. When the casual, first-time reader reads this, he understands the Hand in question to be Jon Arryn, and that Varys must have caused Jon Arryn’s death, especially since we just learned that he does not want the new Hand learning about the “twincest,” and we learn as we read, that Jon was killed after learning about the “twincest.” But substitute another Jon, Jon Connington, in for Jon Arryn, and you can see what Illyrio was suggesting: That Varys attempt to co-opt Eddard into their ulterior plot.

In Eddard XV, Game 58, Varys dismisses the idea that he is in league with Petyr...

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"Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?"

Varys smiled thinly. "Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever could you doubt that? I swear it by my lost manhood. I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace."

Of course, we will find out later that we can substitute “realm” for “Aegon,” But not yet. By the end of Storm, we can conclude that Illyrio and Varys are working to install a claimant other than one of the Targlings on the Iron Throne, but we can only guess at who that other claimant might be. At the end of Storm, the most likely claimant appears to be Rhaegar's son Aegon, or perhaps an imposter posing as Rhaegar's son. Given that Aerion was introduced as the antagonist in The Hedge Knight, which was published before Clash, the next most likely possibility at the end of Storm is a descendant of Aerion's son, who, we learn in Jon I, Clash 6, was passed over for Aegon the Unlikely. A descendant of Rhaenrya Targaryen was another possibility, but she was only mentioned once through Storm. Finally, we have to consider a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre since Catelyn told us that the Blackfyre "pretenders" troubled the Targaryens for five generations, but she also suggested they were wiped out a generation or two earlier. So, after Storm, the question is, who is the Iron Throne claimant supported by Illyrio? And after Storm is when we get the Blackfyre build up.