Suppose Robb declared for Stannis

[Canon Claude]

Let’s say Robb decides to declare for Stannis before Greatjon opens his big mouth. The North and the Riverlands send ravens to Stannis saying they’re with him. What do you think happens next? Does it affect whether the Stormlords follow Renly? How much does Robb change his strategy? How much does Stannis change his? 

[Corvo the Crow]

Stormlords, those who bestirred themselves at least, had already declared for army and raised their armies so they have already cast their lot with a son of Steffon, they aren't going to abandon their overlord just because Robb, with less than 40k men ( he should have ~25k at the time; 11k Edmure's men, 10K with Roose and his ~5k North and Frey horse), if numbers mattered on their decision then sticking with Renly is the better idea. Those Stormlords who haven't raised their levies may decide to declare for Stannis though, after he overshadows Renly and becomes the lord of Storm's End. As for the Reach lords, they are oppurtunistic as we see the aftermath of Renly's death, they would have supported Stannis and perhaps with Robb at his back Tarly may not have killed the infantry part of Stannis' supporters.

[TheDrunkenGiant]

I think it is possible the parley the Catelyn had with Stannis and Renly may have had an opportunity for Renly to declare for Stannis. Unlikey, but still very possible if Stannis was willing to give Renly a position of high honor and Renly could have swalloed his arrogance. If everything else plays out the same, I think the Tyrell's may not have cut the deal with Littlefinger in support of King Joeffrey.

[Lion of the West]

2 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Let’s say Robb decides to declare for Stannis before Greatjon opens his big mouth. The North and the Riverlands send ravens to Stannis saying they’re with him. What do you think happens next? Does it affect whether the Stormlords follow Renly? How much does Robb change his strategy? How much does Stannis change his? 

The difference would probably be that while Stannis strike at King's Landing from the south Robb, or Edmure, would probably have attempted to pin down Tywin in the north. But since the Tyrells hates Stannis, or fears him, they would still declare for Joffrey and so would still smash Stannis on the Blackwater while Tywin tried to make the south. The main difference would be that Stannis would make it to the Riverlands after the Blackwater and join his forced with Robb rather than sit on Dragonstone and then go to the Wall.

In short I dont' think that this neutralize the factor of the Tyrells being against Stannis and joining the Lannisters in order to get what they wanted from Renly; a Tyrell queen to the Iron Throne.

[Dorian Martell's son]

4 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Let’s say Robb decides to declare for Stannis before Greatjon opens his big mouth. The North and the Riverlands send ravens to Stannis saying they’re with him. What do you think happens next? Does it affect whether the Stormlords follow Renly? How much does Robb change his strategy? How much does Stannis change his? 

Everything still happens the same as in the books. The battle of oxcross, his marriage to jeyne, Edmure stopping Tywin, the battle of the blackwater the red wedding etc. There would literally be no change in the story at all  

[Bernie Mac]

Robb joining Stannis does not necessarily mean all the Northern and Riverlords would as well. The whole reason that Robb became King was that none could agree on any of the alternatives, when Stannis was put forward some argued against it. 

[A Ghost of Someone]

Jaime would have effectively become Stannis's prisoner and probably reduced the likelihood of an over emotional wreck, better known as Cat releasing him for what turned out to be a folly. 

[hodorisfaclessman]

6 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Let’s say Robb decides to declare for Stannis before Greatjon opens his big mouth. The North and the Riverlands send ravens to Stannis saying they’re with him. What do you think happens next? Does it affect whether the Stormlords follow Renly? How much does Robb change his strategy? How much does Stannis change his? 

Depends in timing ie renlys death

Theres so many x facrors it would throw up such as

-if stannis goes north roose and walder may be more reluctant to betray their side given the more ruthless bew leader (plus mel might sniff them out anyway)

If the timing means stannis goes north then no shadowbaby and now tywin has to meet the tryells and renlys stormlords on battle thus losing ...from there war between renly.and stannis takes on new scale plus balon may reconsider attacking weserlands of tywin is beaten/killsd in combat and his army broken!

What will lf tell the vale to do..stannis  is an open threat to him but can lysa openly back tywin etc and not provoke a coup ? Renly isnt keen on him either

Varys: lest we forget this man can kill whomever goes into the red keep at will?he may see advantages in helping either tywin or robb

If timeline alters then mels shadowbabies may be used elsewhere!

Dorne has been sittibg on sidelines and wants lannister blood..if stannis suddenly looks like hel gain north and riverlands and like before possibly  part of  renlys huge force(again depend on when in timeline robb decares) they may throw in sooner than expected ...as may golden company!!!

 

 

[James Steller]

If Robb (and Edmure) both commit their regions to Stannis, then Robb has no need to send Theon to the Iron Islands for allies. He probably still sends Catelyn to ride south and meet him.

Stannis now has the Royal Fleet close to King's Landing, but also two regions at his command. Granted, the Riverlands have lost much of their strength by now, but all the same, it gives him a much stronger position since they've trapped Tywin. Renly still declares, and still has the Reach (and most likely the Stormlands), so Renly still has the numbers. He'd probably still move slowly and let the other forces kill each other off, but Stannis might not go to Storm's End.

What also changes is Stannis' dependence on Melisandre. Does she predict Robb and Edmure declaring for Stannis? If not, then she loses a lot of credibility. If yes, then she continues to stay by his side and maybe use her magic on other targets instead of Renly and Penrose.

The biggest changes would be that Theon doesn't go to the Iron Islands (the Ironborn might attack Tywin given how vulnerable the Lannisters would be), and also Mance Rayder might succeed in breaching the Wall. Either way, the North would be invaded by at least one army, but Winterfell would be unconquered so the North would have a rallying point to defeat any invaders.

[Wild Bill]

On 10/30/2017 at 9:41 PM, James Steller said:

If Robb (and Edmure) both commit their regions to Stannis, then Robb has no need to send Theon to the Iron Islands for allies. He probably still sends Catelyn to ride south and meet him.

Stannis now has the Royal Fleet close to King's Landing, but also two regions at his command. Granted, the Riverlands have lost much of their strength by now, but all the same, it gives him a much stronger position since they've trapped Tywin. Renly still declares, and still has the Reach (and most likely the Stormlands), so Renly still has the numbers. He'd probably still move slowly and let the other forces kill each other off, but Stannis might not go to Storm's End.

What also changes is Stannis' dependence on Melisandre. Does she predict Robb and Edmure declaring for Stannis? If not, then she loses a lot of credibility. If yes, then she continues to stay by his side and maybe use her magic on other targets instead of Renly and Penrose.

The biggest changes would be that Theon doesn't go to the Iron Islands (the Ironborn might attack Tywin given how vulnerable the Lannisters would be), and also Mance Rayder might succeed in breaching the Wall. Either way, the North would be invaded by at least one army, but Winterfell would be unconquered so the North would have a rallying point to defeat any invaders.

All very interesting points...

But, it is interesting that Robb sends Cateyln as emissary to Renly, not Stannis.

I know it is not to OP's point, but still, in book the King in the North prefers to treat with a brother with a lessor claim than Stannis. Perhaps OP is referring to after Renly is dead? And in any event, "King in the North" precludes any notion of a subordinate role, so it is hard to see Robb "declaring" for Stannis.

[James Steller]

2 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

All very interesting points...

But, it is interesting that Robb sends Cateyln as emissary to Renly, not Stannis.

I know it is not to OP's point, but still, in book the King in the North prefers to treat with a brother with a lessor claim than Stannis. Perhaps OP is referring to after Renly is dead? And in any event, "King in the North" precludes any notion of a subordinate role, so it is hard to see Robb "declaring" for Stannis.

Well in the books, Robb sends Cat to Renly because Renly has the bigger army by far. Plus Stannis clearly wasn't interested in letting the North go independent, so Robb was basically trying to find any allies that he could muster. Renly and Balon were wild cards to him.

In this scenario, Robb is only Lord of Winterfell, not a King in the North, so Stannis has no reason to hate him. Plus he's putting himself and his Northern forces under Stannis' command (and presumably Edmure is doing the same with his riverlords). This gives Stannis a force large enough to at least fight the Lannisters, though Renly is still very much the wild card here. Balon Greyjoy seems like he'll strike regardless, but he'd have much less success without Theon's idea of taking Winterfell. Presumably Robb wouldn't try to make an alliance with Balon if he's following Stannis's orders, so Theon stays by his side. Even with the Hornwood crisis, the North would be able to rally against the Ironborn if Bran and Rickon are alive and well in Winterfell. Robb doesn't break his marriage contract, which means the Freys have no reason to betray Robb.

But anyway, with Robb and Edmure supporting King Stannis, it tips the scales in Stannis' favour against Tywin and the Lannisters until Renly arrives with his hundred thousand men. But that's what Melisandre's shadowbaby is for.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

8 minutes ago, James Steller said:

But anyway, with Robb and Edmure supporting King Stannis, it tips the scales in Stannis' favour against Tywin and the Lannisters until Renly arrives with his hundred thousand men. But that's what Melisandre's shadowbaby is for.

To be fair, what would that really accomplish? Sure, Robb doesn't have a crown to defend, but he seemed to have a great strategy in mind when it was him in the driver's seat. If he's only equal to Edmure, and they're both putting themselves under Stannis' control, wouldn't that mean they're stuck waiting for orders? Tywin would be able to make the first move on them while they're sitting on their hands waiting for Stan's say-so.

And you'd still have the Tyrells, with or without Renly. Stannis would probably still go to the Stormlands to confront his brother (and given that he'd have two regions of Westeros supporting him, he'd have a slightly higher bargaining chip) but things would just play out the same as before, far as I can see. Stannis and Renly face off, Stannis's shadowbaby offs Renly and then Ser Penrose, Stannis plans to take King's Landing, the only thing that changes is Tywin maybe doesn't get the chance to ride south, but that wouldn't stop Littlefinger from negotiating with the Tyrells to ambush Stannis at Blackwater without Tywin. Only difference is maybe the Lannisters get a more severe mauling in the Riverlands while Stannis maybe retreats North immediately rather than sit helplessly on Dragonstone.

[Wild Bill]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

Well in the books, Robb sends Cat to Renly because Renly has the bigger army by far. Plus Stannis clearly wasn't interested in letting the North go independent, so Robb was basically trying to find any allies that he could muster. Renly and Balon were wild cards to him.

In this scenario, Robb is only Lord of Winterfell, not a King in the North, so Stannis has no reason to hate him. Plus he's putting himself and his Northern forces under Stannis' command (and presumably Edmure is doing the same with his riverlords). This gives Stannis a force large enough to at least fight the Lannisters, though Renly is still very much the wild card here. Balon Greyjoy seems like he'll strike regardless, but he'd have much less success without Theon's idea of taking Winterfell. Presumably Robb wouldn't try to make an alliance with Balon if he's following Stannis's orders, so Theon stays by his side. Even with the Hornwood crisis, the North would be able to rally against the Ironborn if Bran and Rickon are alive and well in Winterfell. Robb doesn't break his marriage contract, which means the Freys have no reason to betray Robb.

But anyway, with Robb and Edmure supporting King Stannis, it tips the scales in Stannis' favour against Tywin and the Lannisters until Renly arrives with his hundred thousand men. But that's what Melisandre's shadowbaby is for.

Sorry, I miss your point. The bolded bits are relevant to my post that Robb sends an emissary to Renly. I know OP is talking about Robb treating with Stannis, but, Robb - acclaimed as "King in the North" at this point chose Renly as his diplomatic target, not Stannis. 

I am suggesting that OP's premise is flawed, or should be restated more directly as an hypothetical question.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎10‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 10:53 AM, Canon Claude said:

Let’s say Robb decides to declare for Stannis before Greatjon opens his big mouth. The North and the Riverlands send ravens to Stannis saying they’re with him. What do you think happens next? Does it affect whether the Stormlords follow Renly? How much does Robb change his strategy? How much does Stannis change his? 

Nothing would change . The incidents that was primary cause of Robb losing was Catelyn releasing Jaime , which led to him losing the Karstarks , Robb sending Theon back to the Iron Islands, which led to him losing Winterfell , Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling , which led to him losing the Freys  , and Edmure defeat of Tywin , which enabled Tywin to save King's Landing .

[Canon Claude]

2 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Nothing would change . The incidents that was primary cause of Robb losing was Catelyn releasing Jaime , which led to him losing the Karstarks , Robb sending Theon back to the Iron Islands, which led to him losing Winterfell , Robb marrying Jeyne Westerling , which led to him losing the Freys  , and Edmure defeat of Tywin , which enabled Tywin to save King's Landing .

Things might change though if Robb wasn’t the commander in chief. Stannis might have had Robb and Edmure do things differently. He certainly wouldn’t have let Jaime or Theon go, that’s for sure.