Fragile Bird Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 40 minutes ago, Maithanet said: I am still of the opinion that the NAFTA talks are just posturing, and nothing is actually going to change. Trump knows that if the economy tanks (or even just falters a bit), his support will be down at least another 5 points, and killing NAFTA would do that. This looks like one of his "talk about doing something, then let if quietly fade away" issues. I was typing other posts and just saw this. I refer you to Trump’s tweet, “Trade wars are good. They’re easy to win”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I was typing other posts and just saw this. I refer you to Trump’s tweet, “Trade wars are good. They’re easy to win”. Trump talks a big game and then does nothing a lot more often than he follows through. 11 minutes ago, Ormond said: I would agree with the first part of your second sentence, but I am not at all sure that Trump knows that killing NAFTA would tank the economy. His narcissism combined with that pesky Dunning-Kruger effect may just lead him to dismiss arguments about that. Maybe. I can't dismiss the possibility that he'll do it, but I don't think he will. It's just such an obviously bad idea, and it would be very easy to blame him for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Maithanet said: Trump talks a big game and then does nothing a lot more often than he follows through. Maybe. I can't dismiss the possibility that he'll do it, but I don't think he will. It's just such an obviously bad idea, and it would be very easy to blame him for it. I just can't fathom why you think something that is "such an obviously bad idea" to you would be at all an obviously bad idea to Donald Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ormond said: I just can't fathom why you think something that is "such an obviously bad idea" to you would be at all an obviously bad idea to Donald Trump. If it were just my opinion (or the opinion of the 54% of the country that didn't vote for him), Trump wouldn't care. But there are a lot of powerful Republican constituencies that would be hurt if NAFTA were to go away, and they aren't going to stay quiet about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: I see both the NYT and the WSJ are tempering their stories on the steel and aluminum tariffs with the words ‘if implemented’. The announcement has come without any actual action plan being in place. I am not as sanguine, I think they will be imposed. But the stories also spoke of the strength in the US economy and the expectation that the economy will absorb the tariffs without difficulty or much impact. What other countries will do in retaliation is another story. As I type this Jason Miller is on CNN saying ‘it’s important to send a message to China that we are not messing around’. And, ‘there will always be people who disagree with the president, but get used to it, there’s another 7 years of this’. I see Trump tweeted this morning that trade wars are good, they’re easy to win. These people are idiots. We don't get steel from China. If they knew how to read, they'd know this. In other news, Carl Icahn sold 1 million shares of a company dependent on steel 4 days before Ross' report came out and a week before Trump's announcement. The timing is impeccable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said: OK one of us is wrong, but I’m not sure who. I was under the impression that the CEOs he was meeting with were pushing for the tariffs. You're right. I did some googling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mexal said: You're right. I did some googling. Yeah, the US aluminum and steel industries will probably benefit, it is the many, many companies that use aluminum and steel to make their products that will suffer. From WaPo: Quote In 2002, the last time the United States imposed steel tariffs, steel users blamed the measures for the loss of up to 200,000 jobs. Steel prices began moving Thursday as word of the tariffs leaked. One benchmark, for hot-rolled coil steel, posted a two-day rise of nearly 13 percent. The aluminum tariff is forecast to create about 1,900 jobs at smelters — but will destroy 23,000 to 90,000 jobs in other manufacturing sectors, said Jorge Vazquez, managing director of Harbor Aluminum. And that's not even getting into the impacts of retaliatory tariffs, like on US agriculture. I realize that this undermines the argument I was making earlier, that Trump listens to powerful constiuencies that have supported him (like auto manufacterers, soda/beer companies, etc). However, in many respects I see these tariffs as a small scale version of doing something about NAFTA. And this "dry run" is going terribly. The press coverage is universally bad, the stock market is tanking, Republican governors and Senators (and not just NeverTrumpers) are criticizing the decision and hoping Trump reconsiders. NAFTA would be like this 50X, and he has no appetite for that. Trump doesn't care about trade policy, he isn't going way out on a limb for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKitttenGuard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said: "Wanting a past that no longer exists" is basically the Republican platform. Though you could correct it to say they want a past that never existed, except in their fervid, gullible imaginations. The past never existed as sure as people are that it did. My annendeum is at that time the industrial polucies were the future and the action as taken as positive. The actions Trump will are not those. They are not protecting a major aspect of our overall nation strength and will weaken the areas that are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said: I see both the NYT and the WSJ are tempering their stories on the steel and aluminum tariffs with the words ‘if implemented’. The announcement has come without any actual action plan being in place. I am not as sanguine, I think they will be imposed. But the stories also spoke of the strength in the US economy and the expectation that the economy will absorb the tariffs without difficulty or much impact. What other countries will do in retaliation is another story. As I type this Jason Miller is on CNN saying ‘it’s important to send a message to China that we are not messing around’. And, ‘there will always be people who disagree with the president, but get used to it, there’s another 7 years of this’. I see Trump tweeted this morning that trade wars are good, they’re easy to win. Possibly the most likely scenario is that new tariffs get imposed that are officially at 10% and 25%, but are so riddled with exemptions that Trump doesn't understand that the effective rates are far lower than what he loudly proclaims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 New fundraising report for the Lamb/Saccone race, and on individual contributions, Lamb is kicking ass: Quote Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone’s poor fundraising — he raised just $703,000 from January 1 through February 21, compared to Lamb’s $3.3 million haul — has forced Republican outside groups to spend valuable dollars to drag Saccone across the finish line in a district President Donald Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points. Outside groups have spent $9.1 million for Saccone - including about $4 million combined from NRCC/RNC - compared to only $1.1 million for Lamb. If anything, Lamb has done a great job forcing big (soft) money GOP groups to commit quite a bit of resources to the race. Still, it'd be cool if some Dem groups came in with a big ad buy to help Lamb down the home stretch. Also of note, Saccone has already come out in favor of Trump's tariffs, because that's how you pander in SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
all swedes are racist Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Fez said: Interesting long-form profile in Politico about Richard Ojeda, a Democratic state senator in West Virginia who's running for congress. Basically, he's an extreme throwback pro-labor populist who is all-in on the teachers' strike, and has polling showing him beating either Republican in the race (primary is in May) among Republican voters and having a blowout among all voters. In a district Trump won 73-27. Seems like he's tapping into the same anger that got Trump elected, but coming at it from the left; somewhat like Sanders actually, though moreso. He even voted for Trump in 2016, though he regrets it. I don't know if he really can win, and if he represents a change for the Democratic party that could occur in many places (or if this is unique to West Virginia due to its still-recent history of being overwhelming Democratic from the labor movement); but it is interesting. nice, look forward to reading it, and happy as hell to see a guy like having that kid of support (though not totally surprised) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 26 minutes ago, dmc515 said: New fundraising report for the Lamb/Saccone race, and on individual contributions, Lamb is kicking ass: Outside groups have spent $9.1 million for Saccone - including about $4 million combined from NRCC/RNC - compared to only $1.1 million for Lamb. If anything, Lamb has done a great job forcing big (soft) money GOP groups to commit quite a bit of resources to the race. Still, it'd be cool if some Dem groups came in with a big ad buy to help Lamb down the home stretch. Also of note, Saccone has already come out in favor of Trump's tariffs, because that's how you pander in SW PA. This is exactly why Dems need to have a 50 state, 435 legislative district approach in which they run candidates that fit the districts more than remain pure to the far left liberal cause. Bleed these conservative outside groups to death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKitttenGuard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 41 minutes ago, Fez said: Possibly the most likely scenario is that new tariffs get imposed that are officially at 10% and 25%, but are so riddled with exemptions that Trump doesn't understand that the effective rates are far lower than what he loudly proclaims. That Trump does not know what he talks about is the default in any analysis. I take Trump lackeys are pushing the Nationalist rhetoric and behind the scene mention exemption as a salve against total panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 University of Michigan got shot up. 2 dead, shooter at large. Did anyone mention the HS teacher who barricaded himself in class with a gun on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said: Did anyone mention the HS teacher who barricaded himself in class with a gun on Wednesday? Yeah it was in the (now closed) gun thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said: University of Michigan got shot up. 2 dead, shooter at large. Its actually Central Michigan University, which is 45 minutes away from me. I posted about this in the gun thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 42 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: This is exactly why Dems need to have a 50 state, 435 legislative district approach in which they run candidates that fit the districts more than remain pure to the far left liberal cause. Bleed these conservative outside groups to death! Well, all 435 districts have candidates so there is at least that. And in most cases, I think the candidates do fit the districts. The issue is when the DCCC tries to push their own candidates before the primaries which tends to look really fucking terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, Mexal said: Well, all 435 districts have candidates so there is at least that. And in most cases, I think the candidates do fit the districts. The issue is when the DCCC tries to push their own candidates before the primaries which tends to look really fucking terrible. Mostly because it is really fucking terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, Mexal said: Well, all 435 districts have candidates so there is at least that. And in most cases, I think the candidates do fit the districts. The issue is when the DCCC tries to push their own candidates before the primaries which tends to look really fucking terrible. Is that true? I was under the impression that there are still a lot of uncontested districts. And I agree, the DCCC shouldn’t meddle too much unless they think they have a real gem of a candidate who will go a lot further than just being a Congressman or Congresswoman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Question: If Trump shows Jared documents he’s no longer allowed to see due to the loss of his top secret security clearance, does that in effect declassify the documents and/or make them more easily obtainable via a FOIA request? I’ve heard a few different opinions about this and I’m not exactly sure what the answer is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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