[TWOW Spoilers] March 2014 Chapter Part III

[Crimson King]

I am unsure of what the line 'The gods have given me a gift.' was referring to. Did she mean there was something special about her ability to recognize a prey? Or was it that the FM literally that the gods gave her the right to deliver the 'gift' to anyone. I'm not sure, but I'm pretty certain that understanding the exact meaning of this line would be quite enlightening on what was Arya's possible mission (or absence of any) in this chapter.

[Mark Antony]

I just simply took it that she was thanking the gods for sending Raff into her path :dunno:

[Le Cygne]

"The gods have given me a gift." For one thing, there's the play on the gift of mercy. In the end, Raff says, "Mother have mercy, girl."

Some of the times she says rape:

Mercy, I’m Mercy, and tonight I’ll be raped and murdered...

It would be just like Mercy to sleep through her own rape...

"I have to be back before the second act, or I’ll miss my rape.”...

Mercy still had some lines to say, her first lines and her last, and Izembaro would have her pretty little empty head if she were late for her own rape.

[ARYa_Nym]

Well the other Nymeria figures are Arya and the wolf as tze said for the one. Repost:

1. Queen Nymeria was a warrior queen.

Nymeria was a war leader but not a warrior -- that is, a commander rather than a combatent.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Dornish_women

Catelyn foresees Arya as the Warrior in book 2. Everyone else had led an army. Nymeria the wolf has gathered an army of wolves.

Even when Brienne mistakes Willow for Arya she said she was like a queen and command would come naturally for someone such as Arya. We know Arya excelled at management.

2. Queen Nymeria gathered people from different city-states along the river Rhoyne. Nymeria gathered her pack along the Trident. The river area where Nymeria's city lies is almost equal in width with the Trident.

Queen Nymeria's city Ny Sar is where the Rhoyne meets the Wild Daughter (a smaller river). Arya would be the wild daughter.

3. Queen Nymeria had to flee from the Valyrians. Nymeria and Arya had to flee from the Lannisters.

4. Bran called Queen Nymeria a witch queen.

Now this may have just been about calling a powerful woman a witch but Arya is really kind of a witch. She studies potions with the FM. The KM said she'll learn the sorcerer's art of glamor. She has the cat as her familiar. Her death list is kind of a spell. Anyone on it dies.

She compares to the Macbeth play in various ways but in this way to the witches.

The witches said, "Fair is foul, and foul is fair." Macbeth said, "So foul and fair a day I have not seen." Arya said that Dareon was, "

He is fair of face and foul of heart, thought Arya, but she did not say it."

The stories deal with deception. What you see may not be reality. Syrio schools Arya on this and so does the KM. Look with your eyes.

The witches seem good but their prophecies actually bring about his end and death. Arya often does the same thing. Also, she did have a woods witch tell her her future.

Nymeria the wolf has sinister links with being called a hellbitch and her pack being called demons.

5. Queen Nymeria didn't have a home for her people. Nymeria doesn't either. Arya went to the FM in part because she felt that she had no where else to go.

6. Queen Nymeria was a Rhoynar. They were associated with ships. Arya in Braavos prefers to hang around sailors the most and her favorite place is the Ragman's Harbor. According to wiki the Rhoynar are:

The Rhoynar are a culture of river-faring people who dwelt on the banks of the immense River Rhoyne

Nymeria is currently living in the Riverlands.

So Queen Nymeria had the Rhoyne as her gathering base. Arya had the Trident as her map home for a while and Nymeria also had the Trident as a base for her pack.

7. The story of Queen Nymeria is one of breaking ties with the past and starting anew. She burned her ships so she could not go back. Queen Nymeria never returned home. With the FM the KM tells Arya to give up ties to her past so she can be more focused on the FM. Nymeria has acquired a new pack and is feral now. So they're both seemingly cut off from their old life at this stage.

8. She sent people to the NW. Arya has had a NW link too with pretending to be one and of course there is the Black Bastard on the wall.

Plus, she sent them in golden fetters and Arya was called a golden squirrel by Greenbeard.

9. Speaking of Green-The Greenblood were among those who came to Westeros with Nymeria.

They are the Dornish with strong Rhoynar links that seems to be on the move. Queen Nymeria had to move her people. Arya is always on the move except for recently while staying in Braavos. Nymeria the wolf might be moving too thanks to Bran.

Anyways, more on the green waters:

She had filled her basin from the canal last night before she went to sleep, preferring the brackish water to the slimy green rainwater stewing in the cistern out back.

Slimy was how she described Raff's kiss but also I noticed looking up in the books that the character who is often called slimy is Varys although never by her so it may not mean much. But it's still something to think about.

[ARYa_Nym]

Oh, and on the impersonating a man that's why I could never agree with the Dareon theory.

How is she going to be given a man's voice? Last we heard from Sam she sounded like a child. Physically she impersonated a boy but that's different than impersonating a man. Dareon btw was a singer.

I think Jon could tell something was off with the glamor but he didn't know what. Arya pretending to be Dareon should be even worse.

Jaqen was Pate but they're the same gender. Same with Mance and Rattleshirt. It's less of a leap no matter the height and build differences.

I saw her taking his boots as more of a feline thing. She is proud of her kill and brings a prize back to her "master".

[Faint]

In regard to Arya's mortality, she has shown herself be perfectly capable of killing innocents when it suits her purposes or is convenient. The idea that she represents justice does not really follow.

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

The Freys aren't on Arya's list.

Wasn't that simply because she didn't know all their names, though?

She says that she would add the names for those responsible for the RW if she knew their names. Add that to the fact that Nymeria and her pack are actively hunting Lannister/Freys. I'd say they're on her list technically.

Also Arya still might not know about the Mountain being dead so he would be on her list still.

Seriously... What's the deal with the "keyholders"?! And why does Arya have a secret key?

And Phario Forel is just too much. Someone explain and/or theorize for me please!

The keyholder's were mentioned once before when Arya says that when Brusco's daughter's moon blood was flowing and she laid in bed she got to go to the Purple Harbor and sell there.

I read on reddit that Arya mentions she had an iron key and perhaps she has a fake one so she can steal a real one later. Maybe something of significance is in Iron Bank vaults.

key holder theater is like a season ticket holder in sports in US.

I thought that till I saw that "keyholders" were mentioned among the nobility of braavos way before anything to do with the mummer's ship she's part of.

Regarding that iron key - isn't Arya supposed to work at night at the temple? With people who came asking for the gift, employing herself with their bodies afterwards?

Could it just be that the key is there to help her attend her primary duties as efficiently as possible? Have a key, sneak in, sneak out...

No, when the KM says she's talking an internship with Izembaro, he mentions that she'll have little use for her new robes. I would say that she is only suppose to go to the House of Black and White on nights when the moon is black.

Still though that to me seems like a good enough reason for her to use a secret entrance so that Mercy isn't associated with the HoBaW.

I am pretty sure the fishmonger Brusco and Big Brusco are not the same person.

And why would a FM take a name so similar to his previous identity if he is under cover?

He wouldn't and I'm not sure if they are the same person, probably not since Arya mentions the people that she knows but they could not recognize her, like Yna from the Happy Port. She's got a different face. Mercy doesn't visit the Happy Port like Cat did.

Do you think Arya will discover her warging skill into Nymeria and possibly even use the wolf to kill some people from her list?

Arya has consiously used Nymeria to hunt their persuers when they escaped Harrenhall. She also consciously used her warging powers to fish her dead mother out of the river, even though Nymeria was hungry and her instincts went against what Arya made Nymeria do. Arya also consciously used her warging ability to "see" borrowing the eyes of the cat that followed her into the House of Black and White.

but yes, Arya as Nymeria remembers their scents, "someday she would find them and kill them all"

Or they just wouldn't be able too. However, they do have women, even if they are a minority, which actually suggests they need them. Most martial organizations in ASoIaF are male only. The FM are a curious exception.

EDIT: I feel like maybe we shouldn't continue this argument in this thread. I just find the whole FM thing extremely confusing, so it is hard to get a grasp of Arya's actual abilities. Still, I'm sticking to the apparent "no shapeshifting" rule.

"Hundreds have joined our order, but few women.." the FM do not disriminate against women because in certain situations it would probably be easier for a women to give the gift than a man could.

For Arya's first hit, her being a girl wasn't necessary at all, infact they told her if she gave up then they'd have someone else do it instead.

[It's Not That Littlefinger]

I loved this chapter. Its amazing because nothing really major (at least on the surface) happened, but it was still great.

I think she was playing sansa in the play. Shae wasn’t a maid and I think people knew it.

I don’t think she is a sociopath. I think I would want very similar things to happen to people who are as bad as the people on her list. And come on. that was a very awesome kill. “you’ll have to carry me.” damn that made me happy.

At first, I was a little sad and disturbed by arya being all sexual, but when I remembered it was all to get a kill, it was all good. that’s a little messed up, but at least arya isn’t a real slut. Just a badass killer.

I saw a few people talking about how the fm stuff will be portrayed on the show. Will they have to get different actresses for arya’s different faces and just have to have maisie dub the lines? I don’t think they would just cgi it. that would be expensive and might not look very good.

By the way, where is dunsen now?

[WeddinGuest]

The plot debates as to the larger context of this chapter and who the character Arya was playing was supposed to be are over my head at this point, but just a few points:

1. I think the sexual parts of the chapter make a lot more sense considering GRRM's own comments stating that he initially meant it to be the reader's re-introduction to Arya after the "five year gap". So he didn't initially set out to write about pedophilia.

2. That being said, now that GRRM has shown Arya using sexuality to accomplish a goal even if she didn't actually have sex with Raff, I really hope he doesn't go down the same path with Sansa as a seductress. Because if he does, he'll have made almost every single major/POV female character (except Cat and Brienne) use her sexuality as a weapon and "whore" themselves out for some ulterior motive, in a way he really doesn't show men doing. (And you could even argue that Cat was trying to sell herself to Walder Frey as a concubine in order to save Robb at the RW, certainly Edmure at one point snaps at her for nagging him to marry Roslin and complains that "I don't see you offering yourself as the next Lady Frey.) You could argue that "well in medieval times that was the main power a woman had", and that in Westoros, pretty much ALL women are seen as saleable commodities to some extent. And that examples of totally non-problematic consensual sex are already far and few between.

However, one aspect I like about these books is that it doesn't just present these medieval norms but cleverly subverts them many times. But in terms of "men using sex as a tool/weapon", I can only really think of LF and Lysa, perhaps, but it seems really obvious that Lysa was the aggressor in that relationship. Actually, perhaps Jon and Ygritte come closest to having that dynamic, at least at first. (I always felt fandom lets Ygritte off easy due to HER sex, if GRRM wrote another Arya chapter showing her having sex with an older man so as not to blow her cover, even if she was attracted to that man or even loved him, it would be much more controversial.)

3. All that being said, what I found notable about Arya re-enacting Raff killing Lommy, is that re-enacting traumatic events is actually very COMMON for a traumatized child to do, it's even ENCOURAGED as part of therapy sessions. Unfortunately, many such children wind up abusing other children along the way, we can argue Arya already did this when she destroyed that little girl's toy soldier earlier in the story. That's what I got out of that part of the story, not "OMG Arya is turning into a sociopathic serial killer like Dexter." And as for her dissociation, that doesn't seem far removed from the "going away inside" that Jaime does, and no one calls Jaime a sociopath, not even people who hate him.

4. I really think that this chapter strongly argues against "Arya loses herself completely and becomes No One" theories. Which doesn't mean Arya is going to have a "happy ending" per se, but I do think it's more likely than not that she eventually returns to Westeros.

5. While I'm really not that vengeful a person in real life, I did feel a sense of satisfaction at the end, I didn't quite do a fist-pump, but...yeah, I'll admit, I was going "yay Arya" at the end. Even though I also found it a bit TOO contrived that Arya actually manipulated Raff into saying the same words Lommy said.

6. Unfortunately, it seems GRRM continues to use Essos more as a "stage" than a believable society. In this case, he literally has them re-enacting a twisted version of the first 3 books, and of course manages to parody Shakespeare along the way. GRRM revealing this chapter was supposed to come right after the "5 year gap" made it much more understandable, but there's as much story-wanking going on here, perhaps more, than actual sex.

[Dark Heart]

Just finished reading this chapter, so I'm still thinking it over but I already love it.

It's have everything; character development, hints of deeper plots and things to come, answers some questions and gives us so many new ones, powerful symbolism . . .

The book can't come soon enough for me.

Things that I find interesting;

“What hour?”

“Four, by the Titan’s roar.”

Wonder is the "Four, by the Titan’s roar" same as "hour of the wolf"

"iron key" - Keys seam to be coming up often with Faceless men. First the key in the Citadel and now this.

"The long way also took her across the Bridge of Eyes with its carved stone faces."

Eyes and carved faces make me think of Bloodraven and old gods. Maybe Arya will take the long way home in some way influenced by BR and OG.

"All cats are gray" - Cat of the canals and cats being associated with Arya / gray as Stark color.

"All men are killers" - all men must die

"The fog opened before her like a tattered grey curtain" - This may be nothing but it still sounds interesting.

Everything about the play. Bloody Hand, crocked thumb, Mummers and association with Bloody Mummers, "Mercy" (and giving mercy in general) fixing the "Stranger's" horn (and later giving blood and death to Stranger / Him of Many Faces), "crown in the privy" makes me think of Tywin, Bobono will have "no nose" / "can't grown another nose", for some reason rats being put in sausages makes me think of the Rat Cook, that the girl talking about the Black Pearl and "dragon king from Westeros took her for his lover" is named Daena.

“Please, m’lord, I am still a maiden,” line makes me think that she will be playing Sansa (I doubt that the play-writer would have given "I am still a maiden" line to a non noble born character) . Quiet as a shadow / still as stone.

"As I cannot be the hero, let me be the monster, and lesson them in fear in place of love.” Mercy mouthed the last lines along with him. They were better lines than hers, and apt besides."

Those lines may just end up being hers anyway.

"I could teach you to say a line. I could." This is shiver worthy and brilliant at the same time.

"“You’ll need to carry me.”
See? thought Mercy. You know your line, and so do I.
“Think so?” asked Arya, sweetly."

That she asks "sweetly" is just perfect.

[ARYa_Nym]

2. That being said, now that GRRM has shown Arya using sexuality to accomplish a goal even if she didn't actually have sex with Raff, I really hope he doesn't go down the same path with Sansa as a seductress. Because if he does, he'll have made almost every single major/POV female character (except Cat and Brienne) use her sexuality as a weapon and "whore" themselves out for some ulterior motive, in a way he really doesn't show men doing. (And you could even argue that Cat was trying to sell herself to Walder Frey as a concubine in order to save Robb at the RW, certainly Edmure at one point snaps at her for nagging him to marry Roslin and complains that "I don't see you offering yourself as the next Lady Frey.) You could argue that "well in medieval times that was the main power a woman had", and that in Westoros, pretty much ALL women are seen as saleable commodities to some extent. And that examples of totally non-problematic consensual sex are already far and few between.

They were telling Edmure to marry but they were not offering themselves to do it nor did they want to I think was the point of the Cat scene. Plus, they were talking about marriage and it was out of duty to family. It's not like what Arya is doing. I think Arya is mimicking the prostitute S'Vrone. She lures then kills and throws them to the eels.

There may be a bit of Cersei but only because Cersei gets no enjoyment out of sex with others who are not Jamie and this wasn't about sexual desire at all.

[WeddinGuest]

They were telling Edmure to marry but they were not offering themselves to do it nor did they want to I think was the point of the Cat scene. Plus, they were talking about marriage and it was out of duty to family. It's not like what Arya is doing. I think Arya is mimicking the prostitute S'Vrone. She lures then kills and throws them to the eels.

There may be a bit of Cersei but only because Cersei gets no enjoyment out of sex with others who are not Jamie and this wasn't about sexual desire at all.

I admit I was reaching a bit with Cat vs Edmure, but she does actually think to herself as she offers herself to the Freys in exchange for Robb that they could kill her OR rape her and she wouldn't care. Somehow, I doubt GRRM would have shown a male character considering rape a possibility by giving himself up in exchange for another.

I know this scene really wasn't about Arya having sexual desire, but the stereotype (well, one of them) about whores is "they accommodate but don't react", more than "they're all nymphomaniacs who looove having tons of sex and being paid for it too!" There's also a stereotype about women in general not really having sexual desire or caring for sexual pleasure, but just using sex as a commodity to exchange for something else, whether it be money, work favors, getting a husband to mow the lawn, etc. So, Arya not actually feeling sexual desire for Raff doesn't really subvert the "all women are whores or Madonnas" stereotype (as BOTH actually are often seen as not really having sexual desires), it actually plays into it.

[ARYa_Nym]

I admit I was reaching a bit with Cat vs Edmure, but she does actually think to herself as she offers herself to the Freys in exchange for Robb that they could kill her OR rape her and she wouldn't care. Somehow, I doubt GRRM would have shown a male character considering rape a possibility by giving himself up in exchange for another.

I know this scene really wasn't about Arya having sexual desire, but the stereotype (well, one of them) about whores is "they accommodate but don't react", more than "they're all nymphomaniacs who looove having tons of sex and being paid for it too!" There's also a stereotype about women in general not really having sexual desire or caring for sexual pleasure, but just using sex as a commodity to exchange for something else, whether it be money, work favors, getting a husband to mow the lawn, etc. So, Arya not actually feeling sexual desire for Raff doesn't really subvert the "all women are whores or Madonnas" stereotype (as BOTH actually are often seen as not really having sexual desires), it actually plays into it.

Ah, but if they raped her that's not her seducing. She's still not consenting. I read online he can rape me comments but that's an oxymoron. Arya actually puts that dwarf in his place for molesting her. I read in one of the earlier threads or maybe on another site that she lets him grope her and doesn't care about her body but I don't think that's true at least not with the dwarf. With Raff she is the initiator. Although he is still a predator in the scene.

Speaking of Madonna I did think of the RL Madonna's sex book that had the line I'll teach you how to fuck and the sad eyed little man and Raff wanting to teach her.

Arya is so detached and cold and it's just means to an end. Cersei and Arianne are benefiting from it or at least trying to but she's just using it on the way to murder. I guess because it's so closely linked to killing that I don't link it to the weapons b/w your legs. It's weirdly sexual but simultaneously not about sex at all.

I get what you mean about not really having sexual desire but I have the tendency to associate "whores" with that concerning men who have this complex. Tysha in Tywin's mind was a whore and she wanted it.

I think the shut down thing is like prostitutes where it's just their lives. Kind of like how Shae came off indifferent to Lollys' rape. They're used to it and emotion is just left out of the picture unless they're faking it.

Maybe there is a stereotype but I think it's natural for example for Shae to not desire Tyrion and it just be a job for her. He is the one who got confused and didn't really understand her position.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Oh my God, this thread is so long it scares me. I'm sure this has already been discussed, but anyway...

The parallel with the key: Jaquen killed Pate to get a key. Arya has one. I know Jaquen's opens a door in the Citadel, but it's probably part of a larger scheme he has (possibly with Euron). So, is Arya's key part of her own personal scheme?

Also, this chapter completely crushed the "Izembaro is Tobho Mott" theory, but I still think the latter has some connection to the FM: Varys trusted him with Gendry, his door is just like the one of the HoBaW, and I think Widow's Wail or Oathkeeper have some kind of glamor. Maybe Arya doesn't leave the FM, maybe they send her to Tobho Mott (wishful thinking)

About the FM changing gender:

Stay, and the Many-Faced God will take your ears, your nose, your tongue. He will take your sad grey eyes that have seen so much. He will take your hands, your feet, your arms and legs, your private parts. He will take your hopes and dreams, your loves and hates. Those who enter His service must give up all that makes them who they are. Can you do that?”

This could mean they want them completely asexual. And wouldn't it make sense, though? If you're going to be truly No One, you have to lose your identity completely and your gender is part of your identity. You really aren't "no one" as long as you are "a man" or "a woman"

About the cold cup of the Stranger:

“Why would you wish to fight? Are you some bravo, strutting through the alleys, spoiling for blood?” He sighed. “Before you drink from the cold cup, you must offer up all you are to Him of Many Faces. Your body. Your soul. Yourself. If you cannot bring yourself to do that, you must leave this place.”

I actually wonder if the cold cup is the potion the sorcerer (who I now think was really a FM) used on Varys to paralyze him. The genital mutilation could be the final test of the FM.

I also mentioned in another thread that Varys could have performed in the Ship when he was a mummer and it would explain why his master sold him (or rented him) to the men who castrated him.

Finally, I'm not sure about the queen part. It would be awesome if it's Margaery, who became more ruthless after her trial, but the fact that Swift is actually asking for more money when he should be paying it just reeks of Cersei.

[kephv]

Finally, I'm not sure about the queen part. It would be awesome if it's Margaery, who became more ruthless after her trial, but the fact that Swift is actually asking for more money when he should be paying it just reeks of Cersei.

I'm not so sure about the genital mutilation. If serves no purpose, and would really only harm their operations. It's likely the Kindly Man didn't mean that in the literal sense, else the best assassins in the world would be quadriplegics... which makes for a hilarious image but it's not really practical.

[Asha Greyjoy:Feminist Icon]

One thing I hadn't really cared about before, but is bothering me now, is how Ned came across Syrio for hire in KL in a pretty swift amount of time. What's the chance LF has some sort of connection to that, and since we're looking at another Forel now, has something to do with a political play about Westeros now? I don't mean this as a crackpot, but does anyone wonder if there's some sort of Westerosi contact person influencing what we're seeing this chapter? I mean, are readers seeing this as highly contained Braavosi culture and intent, or is the idea of someone from Westeros influencing things to some extent something being considered? (and it needn't be LF specifically; I only mentioned that because of the thick Braavos connection, and the fact he'd sent away for mummers to influence an outcome once before).

Just a quick agreement on the suspicion of a Westerosi contact. While I really need to reread the chapter with an eye on the details, I was very much struck by the fact that this entire play - up to and including at least the PW - was already screenplayed so thoroughly in a world where we have been repeatedly shown how slowly and inaccurately most information travels. Could just be that Phario Forel owns both the bloodiest and fastest pen in Braavos...or it could be something else entirely.

Much less convinced of LF's involvement. I originally suspected some crackpot House of B+W chicanery THB. I mean...wonder what they did with Arya's face when she gained the Mercy Upgrade? If parts of Mercy seep in to Arya, I guess anyone who ever used the Arya Face might experience something similar...

[Ice Turtle]

Finally I have time to comment

Chilling

I am not happy that Arya killed Raff, and even less that she has so strong desire to do so I think that her thirst for revenge is her main weakness so I hope she will give it up eventually. And I actually still think it likely.

I am not surprised that Arya used her sexuality, she would have used it even earlier but nor Cat not Ugly Little Girl have faces that would be suitable for this purpose. She is not as experienced as people make her, but she spent years observing how this goes. She repeats Mercy, Mercy, Mercy because Mercy is pretty and can do that, it's almost the same as Fear cuts deeper than swords.

Arya has no sexual desires yet, maybe she never will, though I think she will and it will be a rather shock to her. As I think it was for Lyanna, her rather rational look at Robert and love and the way she reacted to Benjen teasing her seems to point that mooning for boys was very unusual one time occurrence for Lyanna.

I don't think that Arya is going inside as Jaime. She is doing something almost opposite. She is watching, she is always watching and seeing, she did it even when the Tickler was torturing people day after day, but she uses the identity of "Mercy" as some kind of excuse for her behavior. Though strangely not for killing. Arya Stark killed Daeron and Arya Stark killed Raff. And above everything else I wonder, who is Arya Stark now? She is not the girl of nine she was and she is not this sweet giggly creature. Arya needs to cease hiding behind false faces even for herself and define who she really is.

Another mention of wishing for dragons and another mention of Tyrion. In the previous gift chapter Tyrion mentioned Him of many Faces and his talks or thinks about Faceless Men at least three times, I don't think that it is a coincidence. Though somehow I think that she will meet Euron before Tyrion. I have my doubts if she meets Dany at all but she will probably see at least one of her dragons. The most likely is Rhaegal because his coloring is somehow linked to the First Men and the North, he is green like forest and the color of his eyes resembles bronze, which is a metal typical for the first men. And his is also named after a man who stole a Stark maiden.

Reading the chapter first I thought she was playing Sansa, but it was probably some unimportant character, maybe loosely based on what Shae told during her trial.

Arya is wishing for Tyrion's lines but I think that though they are linked, their destiny will be different, it is fire, glory and death for Tyrion and mud for Arya. I think she will live and most or her most extreme deeds will never become know. That said she will die in the end. All men must die. I think that all POVs will die within the books. Bran will be the last in the epilogue of ADoS.

Jon says that Arya will be sewing all winter and dies come spring. I agree with him, she was born for winter, but this winter is going to last many years.

Few things not concerning Arya:

Good to see Black Pearl again.

It seems that Sealord is still ill.

I am not sure that two Forels are related.

If this part won't be rewritten it is clear that Cersei has won her trial as she is in power again. I didn't think she would sent Swyft, because he was Kevan's man but maybe the plan is to kill him and blame it on Braavosi as an excuse to not repay her depth or maybe to start a war. She is insane enough to do that.

I am disappointed that we didn't hear about the Hardhome wildlings again. I was sure that Massey won't make it to Braavos, but now... Imagine Justin and Harrys both in Braavos while the new Sealord is being chosen with tales of dragons and Others becoming more widespread. We just have to see that, and Arya is the best POV for that.

[ARYa_Nym]

I don't feel like going through her water thread again but here are some mud quotes:

One day she came back grinning her horsey grin, her hair all tangled and her clothes covered in mud, clutching a raggedy bunch of purple and green flowers for Father…he…thanked her for the flowers…Then it turned out the purple flowers were called poison kisses, and Arya got a rash on her arms.

…she rubbed mud all over her arms like some ignorant bog woman just because her friend Mycah had told her it would stop the itching.

“She dreamt of home; not Riverrun, but Winterfell. It was not a good dream, though. She was alone outside the castle, up to her knees in mud. She could see the grey walls ahead of her, but when she tried to reach the gates every step seemed harder than the one before, and the castle faded before her, until it looked more like smoke than granite. And there were wolves as well, gaunt grey shapes stalking through the trees all around her, their eyes shining. Whenever she looked at them, she remembered the taste of blood.”

ETA: I just noticed the roar like a monstrous beast line. Pair that with the fire and blood this could be a dragon reference.She seems to seek mud as refuge but idk what mud stands for in this context.

Arya rolled headfirst into the tunnel and dropped five feet. she got dirt in her mouth but she didn’t care; the taste was fine, the taste was mud and water and worms and life. Under the earth was the air was cool and dark. above was nothing but blood and roaring red and choking smoke and the screams of dying horses. she moved her belt around so Needle would not be in the way and began to crawl. A dozen feet down the tunnel she heard the sound, like the roar of some monstrous beast, and a cloud of hot smoke dust came billowing up behind her, smelling of hell. Arya held her breath and kissed the mud on the floor of the tunnel and cried. for whom, she could not say.Arya, ACoK

The mud was nice between her toes, and she liked to feel the earth underfoot when she walked.

^{After days of drinking from brooks and puddles, and then the muddy Trident the ale tasted as good as the little sips of wine her father used to allow her.}

Tyrion's latest chapter said:

Mud and blood and heroism, killing and dying.

Oh, and you know Nymeria's eyes looked like 2 golden coins which can relate to Charon and the River Styx.

Dante put Phlegyas over the Styx and made it the fifth circle of Hell, where the wrathful and sullen are punished by being drowned in the muddy waters for eternity, with the wrathful fighting each other.

There was mention of mud when Nymeria got Catelyn's body out of the water.

[The Lord of the Waters]

I am still not completely understanding why people assume this means Cersei wins her trial?

I know it says "the queen will have his head" at some point, but I think there are various possibilities for why they would say that and it is not conclusive.
We know that Kevan sent Swyft to the Free Cities to get a loan.
Because of the whole re-write business we don't know the time scale for this chapter.
It is also possible that they are just assuming the queen will be ruling when they return.

Also George is very careful and he has already said on his blog that he doesn't want to 'reveal too much'/give to many details away. To me the outcome of Cersei's trial is a very big plot point and I find it difficult to believe that George would spoil that plot point with a sample chapter like this one. The reason he takes so long is because he is so meticulous with his writing and someone who is as precise with his wordings is (in my opinion) very unlikely to make an error such as this and reveal a large upcoming plot point.

[WiDMNDBAMMD]

I am still not completely understanding why people assume this means Cersei wins her trial?

I'm not understanding at all how anyone thinks that there's any possible way that Cersei can lose her trial with Ser Robert Strong as her champion.

The only better questions that could be asked are: How does she regain the Regency? Simple answer: Tommen. Does Margaery survive or not? And if not how does this whole Tyrell/Lannister alliance look right now?