Daenerys Stormborn - A Re-Read Project Part IV: ADwD

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

--Also Doran Martell is kind of an idiot IMO. This whole plan of his was completely ridiculous and dumb. He was too paranoid, making Quentyn go to Volantis to find a ship is what got half his crew and master killed. And sending Quentyn to do this to begin with is a bad idea, it was hubris. Thinking that Dany will be so willing to jump on anyone from Dorne, just because they are Dorne is a bad assumption to make without knowing any details of her current situation.

Hmm, I don't think his plan was that bad, I think it was just executed poorly. I think the main problem is that everyone thinks Dany is a pawn, but she actually isn't and is very unpredictable. I think gathering intel should have been themain priority before sending Qeyntn, when Illyrio/Varys had Jorah spying on Dany he sent Barristan to her at the right time but he lost control of her actions after Jorah stopped, and now thinks she will head to Volantis. So I think without intel it would be very difficult to know what dany would do, and thus plan ahead.

[BearQueen87]

Hmm, I don't think his plan was that bad, I think it was just executed poorly. I think the main problem is that everyone thinks Dany is a pawn, but she actually isn't and is very unpredictable. I think gathering intel should have been themain priority before sending Qeyntn, when Illyrio/Varys had Jorah spying on Dany he sent Barristan to her at the right time but he lost control of her actions after Jorah stopped, and now thinks she will head to Volantis. So I think without intel it would be very difficult to know what dany would do, and thus plan ahead.

My issue with the fact that everyone thinks Dany is just a pawn is this: they are not wholly uninformed about what Dany is doing. They know that 1) she calls herself the rightful Queen of Westeros, 2) that she is freeing slaves (they don't understand her motivations but they can't deny the events), 3) that her armies sacked one city and liberated others, 4) that she is now calling herself the Queen in Meereen, and 5) that she has three dragons with her. She is so clearly beyond "pawn" material at this point. I don't know what way they could have executed it to make her more pliable.

ETA: based on the below: I'm talking about Doran; shouldn't use the word "everyone"

[HexMachina]

... and 5) that she has three dragons with her....

How widely is this believed in Westeros though? Doran clearly believes it, yes. But the Small Council dismisses it as baseless rumours for an awfully long time, and Stannis and co. weren't particularly well informed on it, as it was a surprise to Davos when he got to White Harbour. They are accepted as real in Essos, but less so in Westeros, especially among the nobility. However, these rumours seem to have been more widely accepted towards the end of Dance I suppose...

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I will amend my original statement. I dont think it was a dumb idea to try and send an envoy to Dany. I think it was dumb to send Quentyn, to make him sneak out of the country at the cost of 3 of his crew. I think Doran made him paranoid and scared, and I dont think Quentyn was the right man for the job. So it was good intentions but poorly executed.

[BearQueen87]

How widely is this believed in Westeros though? Doran clearly believes it, yes. But the Small Council dismisses it as baseless rumours for an awfully long time, and Stannis and co. weren't particularly well informed on it, as it was a surprise to Davos when he got to White Harbour. They are accepted as real in Essos, but less so in Westeros, especially among the nobility. However, these rumours seem to have been more widely accepted towards the end of Dance I suppose...

Sorry, should have been more clear: it's known to Doran not the others in Westeros. All my bullet points were about Doran Martell.

[HexMachina]

Sorry, should have been more clear: it's known to Doran not the others in Westeros. All my bullet points were about Doran Martell.

Oh, sorry :p We did mention the other nobles of Westeros at some point though didn't we? At least that way my post makes some sense (I'm having coffee cravings, forgive me)

[BearQueen87]

Oh, sorry :P We did mention the other nobles of Westeros at some point though didn't we? At least that way my post makes some sense (I'm having coffee cravings, forgive me)

We did. lol. (is now lost in a sea of people and ideas)

I will amend my original statement. I dont think it was a dumb idea to try and send an envoy to Dany. I think it was dumb to send Quentyn, to make him sneak out of the country at the cost of 3 of his crew. I think Doran made him paranoid and scared, and I dont think Quentyn was the right man for the job. So it was good intentions but poorly executed.

I agree that it was dumb to send Quentyn. I also think it was ill-advised (at least) of Doran not to realize that Dany is beyond being a pawn at this point for the reasons I listed above.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

My issue with the fact that everyone thinks Dany is just a pawn is this: they are not wholly uninformed about what Dany is doing. They know that 1) she calls herself the rightful Queen of Westeros, 2) that she is freeing slaves (they don't understand her motivations but they can't deny the events), 3) that her armies sacked one city and liberated others, 4) that she is now calling herself the Queen in Meereen, and 5) that she has three dragons with her. She is so clearly beyond "pawn" material at this point. I don't know what way they could have executed it to make her more pliable.

ETA: based on the below: I'm talking about Doran; shouldn't use the word "everyone"

I think the best way to please her was to probably send an army but thats impossible since Doran is doing this undercover.

I dont think even Arianne or Oberyn would have been able to convince Dany once she became Queen of Meereen, Doran's plan would have only worked without an army, if done earlier in Qarth or so.

Im not sure the timing of when he sent Quentyn though.

[Kyoshi]

They obviously dont know who they are dealing with. :)

That's good for Dany since they all just see her as a young girl inexperienced in the matters of war. I actually love that they aren't really planning for her right now.

[Kyoshi]

It seems we all agree one one thing: Quentyn was not the man for the job.

[Parwan]

New chapter! :laugh: Great analysis, Suzanna. :cheers:

^I agree that the high lords and prominent "players" should have paid more attention to Dany and her dragons. The story of Aegon the Conqueror is a very popular one in the 7K yet somehow none of them see the threat new dragons pose to the realm and throne, especially dragons belonging to an exiled princess who has a legitimate claim to the throne. Poor planning and foresight all around.

With regard to Quentyn and Doran, I think one of the factors in Doran deciding to send Quentyn on the mission was that of blood and birthright. When Walder Frey offered a non-first born son to marry Tytos Lannister's only daughter it was perceived by everyone as an insult, which it probably was. This is one of the flaws in Westerosi diplomacy, courtesy, everything about their general decision-making.

...

It's not just the Dragons. The leaders of the Seven Kingdoms dropped the ball on the issue of the Targaryen exiles. Some readers might want to give them a pass. One could argue that Stannis in particular can't be blamed much; he wasn't at the meeting where the wedding and the pregnancy were discussed. I'm unwilling to give any high lord of Westeros a pass on this matter. I say that Stannis should have been at the meeting, or at least he should have had a representative there. Those houses that didn't have representation at the meeting should still have a desire to find out about events that are important to the kingdom. Pentos isn't that far away. It is clear that there are rich and powerful people in the free cities who are giving significant support to the Targaryens. Forgetting this matter, or just letting it pass after Jorah's reports stopped was not smart. The young woman, despite Lord Stark's objections to killing her, should have been seen as a danger. Even her brother should have been seen as a possible danger. (The SC didn't know as much about Viserys as we do.) Assuming that the powerful Essossi backing the Targaryens are just playing their own games is assuming too much.

The blood and birthright point is a good one. I hadn't considered it. The lords of Westeros are not stupid, but they are set in their ways, and this causes them to do questionable things. Doran may have thought that the only acceptable ambassador he could send was his first born son. He should have established some low-level contacts first, or at least gathered more information about Dany. However, I don't think that this mistake singles him out as particularly dumb compared to other characters in ASoIaF.

About the dragons and the Westerosi ignoring them;

Its not really that surprising. Initially (aGoT, aCoK, part of aSoS) there are more immediate concerns with the War of the Five Kings. After that the Kingdom.is recovering, and even then the conflict isnt fully over (with Stannis in the North). By the time a semblance of order is restored, tragedy strikes Kings Landing with Joffrey's death and Tywins death. Rumours are brought to Kings Landing about the dragons, but that is all there is, rumours. Since dragons have been extinct for.150 years or so, its hardly surprising they disregard these rumours. When a competent SC is restored in Dance, we see the threat being taken seriously.

I don't say it's surprising. I say it's dumb, as is the War of the Five Kings. Defending the bad moves regarding Daenerys on the basis of "more immediate concerns" is equivalent to saying, "Well you can't criticize us too much for neglecting to do smart low-cost things. We didn't have the time and energy, because we were so heavily involved in doing stupid things." It would not have been that hard to keep track of Dany. There is a lot of commerce and other exchange between Westeros and Essos. As I said before, Dany got a lot of good information from one conversation with a sea captain. Surely, each of the high lords of the 7K has a few trusted servants (non-fighting ones if necessary) who could have gone over to Essos to check things out.

My attitude here is influenced by my overall opinion of the "leadership" of the Seven Kingdoms, especially of the powerful people in King's Landing. Let me put it this way: Suppose you found out that the Secretary of Homeland Security was a dedicated member of al-Qaida. Would that not seriously lower your opinion of our government? The situation in KL is even worse. Varys, the man everyone depends on for vital info from Essos, is a grade-A traitor. The man had already started plotting the overthrow of the Baratheon dynasty before he took his oath of fealty to King Robert.

Hmm, I don't think his plan was that bad, I think it was just executed poorly. I think the main problem is that everyone thinks Dany is a pawn, but she actually isn't and is very unpredictable. I think gathering intel should have been themain priority before sending Qeyntn, when Illyrio/Varys had Jorah spying on Dany he sent Barristan to her at the right time but he lost control of her actions after Jorah stopped, and now thinks she will head to Volantis. So I think without intel it would be very difficult to know what dany would do, and thus plan ahead.

I agree, especially with the bolded part. Gathering good intel just isn't that hard. Not for Doran, not for anyone in Planetos who has a few bucks (or stags, or golden dragons, or whatever).

My issue with the fact that everyone thinks Dany is just a pawn is this: they are not wholly uninformed about what Dany is doing. They know that 1) she calls herself the rightful Queen of Westeros, 2) that she is freeing slaves (they don't understand her motivations but they can't deny the events), 3) that her armies sacked one city and liberated others, 4) that she is now calling herself the Queen in Meereen, and 5) that she has three dragons with her. She is so clearly beyond "pawn" material at this point. I don't know what way they could have executed it to make her more pliable.

...

And it would have been easy to find out about the young queen well before she sailed into Slaver's Bay. Her activities in Qarth were not clandestine, right? Half the damn world came to see her dragons. Apparently, no important person in Westeros sent anyone to find out what was going on. Well, Doran might have. Perhaps that's why he believes in the dragons. If he did have some representative, or at least some servant, in Qarth, then he should have been able to make initial contact with the Targaryen forces. Clearly, he didn't do so. In all, the action, or lack of action, of the Westerosi leaders does not show much intelligence.

How widely is this believed in Westeros though? Doran clearly believes it, yes. But the Small Council dismisses it as baseless rumours for an awfully long time, and Stannis and co. weren't particularly well informed on it, as it was a surprise to Davos when he got to White Harbour. They are accepted as real in Essos, but less so in Westeros, especially among the nobility. However, these rumours seem to have been more widely accepted towards the end of Dance I suppose...

This dismissal was a bad move. Once again, it would have been very easy to confirm the reports. If anyone had bothered to keep track of Dany after Jorah's letters ceased, the confirmation would have been pretty much automatic.

A character of note here is Marwyn. The man obviously has his eyes open. I don't know whether he's a bad guy or a good guy, but he is a smart guy. He follows "amazing" principles like going to the source of things to find out about them and looking at facts instead of just accepting the opinion of "authorities." For example, if you want to know about magic, go to Asshai. Don't just take a course in the Citadel, a course that is probably taught by an instructor who doesn't know the subject well. He may not be correct about the desire of the maesters to kill Aemon. In general though, his opinion of the "grey sheep" has much to it. He knows that Dany is important. Others in Westeros should know this. Not surprisingly, the men around him say his work is unsound and complain about how he consorts with foreigners and low-class individuals.

[Kyoshi]

^I agree with you. One other thing Doran could have done, in addition to finding out more about Dany before sending Quentyn to her, is to send an intellectually well-equipped ambassador. There was the Maester, a learned man, but there was no contingency plan for his death. Everyone else in Quentyn's crew is a warrior of some kind. They're useful in case of a fight but useless otherwise. Westerosi culture places far too much value on physical prowess, a flaw constantly demonstrated throughout the books. Doran is not alone in this either. A Tyrion-like character would have been invaluable to the mission. A Tyrion like character would have been invaluable in Doran's council.

[Fire Eater]

I will amend my original statement. I dont think it was a dumb idea to try and send an envoy to Dany. I think it was dumb to send Quentyn, to make him sneak out of the country at the cost of 3 of his crew. I think Doran made him paranoid and scared, and I dont think Quentyn was the right man for the job. So it was good intentions but poorly executed.

Dany would have responded much better to Oberyn who is pretty much in the same vein as Daario. Plus, Oberyn has visited Essos before where he served as a sellsword.

[BearQueen87]

Dany would have responded much better to Oberyn who is pretty much in the same vein as Daario. Plus, Oberyn has visited Essos before where he served as a sellsword.

Hm. I'm torn about this idea. I agree that Oberyn and Daario both have that arrogant, deadly, capable, and--dare I say--sexy persona going for them. But I think their biggest difference is that Oberyn is more strategic and knowledgeable. He was raised a Prince and knows how to play the game. Oberyn is a deadly viper but knows when to strike. Darrio's idea of playing the game is to be ruthless and brutal and Dany, though she loves him, doesn't trust him. She knows he's not king material and his idea of how to bring peace in Meereen is rather monstrous.

So I agree that she would have listened to Oberyn more than Quentyn (poor Quentyn) but not because he's like Daario. In fact, maybe be cause he's NOT like Daario.

[Nictarion]

I don't think it would have mattered who was sent to propose to Dany. She was completely in love with Daario and she even put him aside to marry Hizdahr. It was all about what was best for her people, and at that point that was marrying Hizdahr. The thing about Quentyn being mud instead of fire is from Barristan. He was the one that thought Dany may have accepted Doran's offer if the handsome Gerris Drinkwater was prince instead of Quentyn. IIRC Dany never had those thoughts.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

If Oberyn had visited Dany instead of Quentyn, he would have found the same problem: Dany wouldn't want to leave because she's not abandoning Meereen.

Dany's marriage is the culmination of the peace she wanted so much, and that's something Oberyn -or anyone- needed to understand. Either Quentyn, Oberyn or Doran himself, they got there too late. They needed to get to Dany as soon as she got the Unsullied, back in Astapor.

Now, I do think that Oberyn knew more of the politics and culture of Essos, or at least he probably heard something and made some friends. That could have helped Dany to use diplomacy and negotiations to solve the problem, but that problem wasn't going to be solved in less than one year, and Dorne couldn't wait that much. Why would anyone in Westeros would get involved in a war she caused herself?

Sadly, I think that no matter who, Dany would still be involved in the same problems and intrigues. Maybe Oberyn could have given better advice, but he wouldn't be able to convince her to return. No one would.

[Kyoshi]

As this debate continues I find myself more interested in the timeline of Doran's plans. When did he find out about the dragons? How? What convinced him them they were real? When did he decide to amend his plans to include Dany and the Dragons?

[HexMachina]

As this debate continues I find myself more interested in the timeline of Doran's plans. When did he find out about the dragons? How? What convinced him them they were real? When did he decide to amend his plans to include Dany and the Dragons?

I'm no good at working these things out, but this timeline has Quentyn's Volantis chapter at 27/2 300AC. He has been there for 20 days, meaning he arrived 7/2 300AC. The group had taken a ship from Lys to Volantis, during which they were attacked by the Corsairs. I don't know how long that would take. They were in Lys for at least 4 days after travelling from Planky Town...I'd estimate that Quentyn set out sometime during 299 AC, before the Purple Wedding

[Kyoshi]

I'm no good at working these things out, but this timeline has Quentyn's Volantis chapter at 27/2 300AC. He has been there for 20 days, meaning he arrived 7/2 300AC. The group had taken a ship from Lys to Volantis, during which they were attacked by the Corsairs. I don't know how long that would take. They were in Lys for at least 4 days after travelling from Planky Town...I'd estimate that Quentyn set out sometime during 299 AC, before the Purple Wedding

Thanks. Haven't read it yet but I'm thinking maybe Doran didn't really have the option of sending the Red Viper since he was on his way to King's Landing. Arianne is untrustworthy at this point so only Quentyn is left.

[BearQueen87]

If Oberyn had visited Dany instead of Quentyn, he would have found the same problem: Dany wouldn't want to leave because she's not abandoning Meereen.

Dany's marriage is the culmination of the peace she wanted so much, and that's something Oberyn -or anyone- needed to understand. Either Quentyn, Oberyn or Doran himself, they got there too late. They needed to get to Dany as soon as she got the Unsullied, back in Astapor.

Now, I do think that Oberyn knew more of the politics and culture of Essos, or at least he probably heard something and made some friends. That could have helped Dany to use diplomacy and negotiations to solve the problem, but that problem wasn't going to be solved in less than one year, and Dorne couldn't wait that much. Why would anyone in Westeros would get involved in a war she caused herself?

Sadly, I think that no matter who, Dany would still be involved in the same problems and intrigues. Maybe Oberyn could have given better advice, but he wouldn't be able to convince her to return. No one would.

I agree. Oberyn would have made Dany listen more than Quentyn does, but he still ultimately would have failed because Dany is too invested in Meereen and the people of Meereen.