R+L=J v.96

[UnmaskedLurker]

He does place red herrings, but--one of my favorite quotes from GRRM--is that in a murder mystery if all the clues lead to the Butler, then it better be the butler. All the clues are leading to R+L = J

I am in the camp that if R+L=/=J, then R+L=J was never really a red herring, it was just a misreading of the clues and bad story-telling by GRRM. A red herring has to be more directly implicated in the text to really qualify as a red herring. R+L=J is certainly never stated by anyone nor directly indicated in the text. For example, assuming Dany is not TPTWP, Aemon saying he thinks she is would qualify as a red herring. But R+L=J either is true or is just really bad story-telling (and GRRM is not likely to engage in really bad story-telling).

[UnmaskedLurker]

Not all of the clues lead to R+L=J. Most of them lead to Lyanna is mother, but there are no strong evidences that Rhaegar is the father. The one evidence is guards.

The other evidence is that we are led to believe that she was with no one else during the period of conception other than Rhaegar (and Dayne and Whent). So once Lyanna is deduced to be the mother, concluded Rhaegar to be the father is fairly undeniable. She was "captured" by Rhaegar before she got pregnant (we know this from the timeline) and there is no indication she was ever away from Rhaegar during the period between her "capture" and conception--in fact all indication is that they were not apart during that period.

[BearQueen87]

Not all of the clues lead to R+L=J. Most of them lead to Lyanna is mother, but there are no strong evidences that Rhaegar is the father. The one evidence is guards.

Who else would be the father of Lyanna's baby if not the man she was having sex with on a regular basis? And I'm not sure what you mean by "the one evidence is guards"

[sabrecmc]

I like to think Ned also feels a bit guilty that Jon is raised as a bastard and all that entails instead of a prince. I know I'd feel bad about that, even if it was done to protect him.

Also, Cat's treatment of Jon has to be a burden for Ned, but he's stuck on that one.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Who else would be the father of Lyanna's baby if not the man she was having sex with on a regular basis?

To be honest, very very very honest and objective, we don't know if she had sex with Rhaegar while she was in the ToJ. Could have been Arthur Dayne the one falling in love and Rhaegar fell in love with her. I don't mean that happened but it's not THAT impossible. And Lyanna never told Ned, only got the time to tell him to take care of him as a son. Ned thought Rhaegar was the father, as he also assumed he kidnapped her.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Who else would be the father of Lyanna's baby if not the man she was having sex with on a regular basis? And I'm not sure what you mean by "the one evidence is guards"

I think the implication is that the guards indicate the existence of the King in ToJ, which requires Rhaegar to be the father. But I think we have other very strong evidence as well, such as R&L running off together. R is not going to stay away for a year to hide an affair between Dayne and Lyanna. The suggestion that anyone other than Rhaegar could be the father of Lyanna's child who was conceived after she took off with Rhaegar is basically preposterous.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

The Promise - she had smiled then.

We're not sure what the extent of Ned's promise is. Everyone around him thinks it's just to bury Lyanna at WF, but it's clearly more than that. It probably has to do with keeping Jon safe and raising him as his own son. The promise, though, means that Ned has to live a lie that he dishonored himself and Cat by having sex outside of marriage and fathering a bastard. He has to live with this lie and all the other lies. That weighs heavy on him.

Actually. we do know what it is, if we are apt to believe GRRM is using canonical phrases for a purpose:

"I was with her when she died," Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and Father." He could hear her still at times. Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then [...]

AGoT 04 Eddard I (early in the chapter, markup by me)

True, here we cannot possibly know what this is about.

But we learn it later:

Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

[...]

"I will," Ned had promised her. That was his curse.

[...]

Good to you, Ned thought hollowly. "I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting."

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snow's face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts?

[...]

For the first time in years, he found himself remembering Rhaegar Targaryen. He wondered if Rhaegar had frequented brothels; somehow he thought not.

AGoT 35 Eddard IX (early in the chapter, last paragraph mid-chapter, markup by me)

Safeguarding the child is the promise.

[BearQueen87]

To be honest, very very very honest and objective, we don't know if she had sex with Rhaegar while she was in the ToJ. Could have been Arthur Dayne the one falling in love and Rhaegar fell in love with her. I don't mean that happened but it's not THAT impossible. And Lyanna never told Ned, only got the time to tell him to take care of him as a son. Ned thought Rhaegar was the father, as he also assumed he kidnapped her.

Ok sure. There is a very remote possibility that Rheagar had Arthur and Oswell take Lyanna, but then Lyanna ended up not sleeping with Rhaegar and slept with Dayne (or Whent) and one of the KG is the father of Jon. Sure that is possible. But there is a world of difference between possible and probable. It is not probable that Dayne or Whent are the father of Lyanna's child. Not when Rhaegar's the one who, at the very least, wanted a third head of the dragon (if you're me and Unmasked Lurker, you think he wanted TPTWP after realizing Aegon could not be), not when Rheagar named the tower the Tower of Joy, not when Jon's heritage is being kept such a secret. If Jon was Dayne or Whent's the need for absolute secrecy is weird.

[UnmaskedLurker]

The Promise - she had smiled then.

Actually. we do know what it is, if we are apt to believe GRRM is using canonical phrases for a purpose:

AGoT 04 Eddard I (early in the chapter, markup by me)

True, here we cannot possibly know what this is about.

But we learn it later:

AGoT 35 Eddard IX (early in the chapter, last paragraph mid-chapter, markup by me)

Safeguarding the child is the promise.

Great textual analysis. I agree 100%.

[BearQueen87]

The Promise - she had smiled then.

Actually. we do know what it is, if we are apt to believe GRRM is using canonical phrases for a purpose:

AGoT 04 Eddard I (early in the chapter, markup by me)

True, here we cannot possibly know what this is about.

But we learn it later:

AGoT 35 Eddard IX (early in the chapter, last paragraph mid-chapter, markup by me)

Safeguarding the child is the promise.

Yes all of that.

[Ygrain]

Great textual analysis. I agree 100%.

And one arrived at repeatedly and independently :-)

[UnmaskedLurker]

Ok sure. There is a very remote possibility that Rheagar had Arthur and Oswell take Lyanna, but then Lyanna ended up not sleeping with Rhaegar and slept with Dayne (or Whent) and one of the KG is the father of Jon. Sure that is possible. But there is a world of difference between possible and probable. It is not probable that Dayne or Whent are the father of Lyanna's child. Not when Rhaegar's the one who, at the very least, wanted a third head of the dragon (if you're me and Unmasked Lurker, you think he wanted TPTWP after realizing Aegon could not be), not when Rheagar named the tower the Tower of Joy, not when Jon's heritage is being kept such a secret. If Jon was Dayne or Whent's the need for absolute secrecy is weird.

It is not just improbable. It is ludicrous. Rhaegar, the crown prince, is going to stay away for a year to support an affair between Lyanna and Dayne or Whent? That theory strains all credulity.

And by the way, it is not that I believe that Rhaegar concluded that it was not possible that Aegon could be TPTWP. Rather, I believe that once he decided to go after Lyanna as the mother of the third head, it was inevitable that Rhaegar would realize that Lyanna was ice to his fire and thus conclude he had been wrong about Aegon and rather this child of ice/fire would be TPTWP.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

To be honest, very very very honest and objective, we don't know if she had sex with Rhaegar while she was in the ToJ. Could have been Arthur Dayne the one falling in love and Rhaegar fell in love with her. I don't mean that happened but it's not THAT impossible. And Lyanna never told Ned, only got the time to tell him to take care of him as a son. Ned thought Rhaegar was the father, as he also assumed he kidnapped her.

So then Rhaegar would be hiding for almost a year so his friend can have a secret affair?

That one person (Arthur or Oswell) of whom it isn't known whether they ever had any contact with Lyanna at all?

[Alia of the knife]

Thanks BQ!!

Glad you enjoyed! And I can promise that the next one will be of particular interest to the denizens of this thread ;)

Can't wait!!!😍😍😍

[Alia of the knife]

From the sample on Aegon's conquest:

Since the Velaryons were not dragonlords it seems unlikely they would be practicing incest.

While the Valaryons weren't the "royal" family, were they not still dragon lords of Valarya?

I think it was stated that the Targaryens themselves were only a minor noble family in their native land.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I can promise that the next one will be of particular interest to the denizens of this thread ;)

I'm bidin' my time...

[RumHam]

While the Valaryons weren't the "royal" family, were they not still dragon lords of Valarya?

I think it was stated that the Targaryens themselves were only a minor noble family in their native land.

They weren't dragonlords because they didn't have Dragons (well, they got some Targaryen dragons much later) There were around forty dragonlord families in the freehold, and the Targaryens were relatively minor among them. They were still above the Valyrian nobility who did not have dragons.

This part is just theory, but I think the idea is that the inbreeding is to maintain some kinda "dragonblood" ties to their dragons. so the Velaryons would have no reason to inbreed.

[jobmartell]

How did we get L going back to WF, while pregnant, from the TOJ and back again from finding out Ned's mothers name was Lyarra?

[BearQueen87]

How did we get L going back to WF, while pregnant, from the TOJ and back again from finding out Ned's mothers name was Lyarra?

We didn't. One person did and the theory is holey and frankly really out there.

[Alia of the knife]

They weren't dragonlords because they didn't have Dragons (well, they got some Targaryen dragons much later) There were around forty dragonlord families in the freehold, and the Targaryens were relatively minor among them. They were still above the Valyrian nobility who did not have dragons.

This part is just theory, but I think the idea is that the inbreeding is to maintain some kinda "dragonblood" ties to their dragons. so the Velaryons would have no reason to inbreed.

Oh okay.

For some reason I thought the Valaryons and the Berantheons were part of the fleeing nobility, but perhaps just vassals then.