R+L=J v.97

[addicted to snow]

*catches breath*

Okay then. Fast thread...fast thread.

I think it will only matter to Jon and Dany. if Jon becomes king at series end, it isn't because he's the son of Rhaegar Targaryen but because of his role as LC of the NW and what he did during the War for the Dawn 2.0

For what he does in the War for the Dawn 2.0???… You mean lead the Others against the Realms of Men?

You must not have realized that Jon is the most significant antagonists in the series...

[lareine]

Fair and balanced analysis. I personally don't like Rhaegar as it stands but there is definitely more to the story.

Thank you! I try to be, and not in the Fox News way :D

He knew he could trust Hightower because Hightower is exactly by-the-book. If Hightower agrees to stay at the ToJ until some specified time or event (such as return of Rhaegar, birth of baby, whatever). Rhaegar will trust it because Hightower simply would not lie. Based on Ned's dream, we know that Hightower believed he was doing his duty by being at ToJ.

I know that after 97 versions of this thread, a lot of this information has to be repeated over and over again, but read MtnLion's link in her sig--it will address many of these issues by interpreting each line of Ned's dream (it is really excellent). If you have issues after reading that analysis, post those issues and someone here likely will be able to answer your questions. I promise that these sort of issues have been evaluated over and over again and there are answers to them.

I agree that GRRM is not going to give us enough information at this stage to be able to figure out every detail. But I think we can surmise some of the larger issues. If my theory is correct, that once Rhaegar decided to run off with Lyanna to have the third head, Rhaegar realized that Lyanna was ice to his fire and thus their child--and not Aegon--would be TPTWP, it would answer your question possibly. Perhaps Rhaegar thought had to remain the crown prince for his son with Lyanna to be TPTWP. Rhaegar likely believed that he needed to stay as crown prince to have his children be the three heads of the dragon. I agree that there could be other explanations, and we don't know for sure what R's plan actually was. But he clearly had a plan and we have some clues that the plan involved marrying Lyanna and coming back with a baby to reveal the marriage. Whether R was going to try to overthrow Aerys or just work within the system is less certain. But the clues for the basics of the plan seem fairly clear.

I think we'll just respectfully have to agree to disagree.

I've read Mtn. Lion's analysis of the text many times over the past two years and I think it's an excellent interpretation and a very likely explanation for the events at the TOJ given what we know so far. Your theory about Rhaegar's motivations is also very interesting and possible given the hints and clues that we have to date.

But for me personally, ASOIAF is still an unfinished work. And while I agree that some of the larger issues are quite clear (like R+L=J) a lot of the details about the circumstances and characters to me are still not. With each new book, chapter and history that comes out, we see new snippets of information about Westeros's past and we've also seen new POV's that have completely upended what we thought we knew about a character and their motivations from earlier POVs.

So until the main series is completed and I have as much information as possible in front of me, I'm going to hold off on rendering my judgement about what was going on between Aerys, Rhaegar and the KGs and what exactly their individual motivations might have been.

Again, this is just my personal preference. I completely understand and respect that you have a different opinion.

[Anath]

Rhaegar did not trust Aerys. He was trying to over throw/depose him. And actually he left Elia and children in Jaime's hands to guard. He also knew that Aerys wouldn't hurt Elia and the kids cause Dorne would go against him. That's why Aerys wouldn't let E and kids leave in the first place, even though Aerys sent Rhaells and Viserys to Dragonstone after the Trident.

I also thought Rhaegar did not trust Aerys. Recently, though, I reread the scene with Jaime's actual memory of the man, not his guit-ridden dream. And guess what? Rhaegar outright said he wasn't this helpless. He didn't say, I cannot take you because my father won't let me. He said, I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour. Meaning, he could have taken Jaime. He just chose not to, for reasons of his own - he deemed that taking Jaime away was not worth it to risk Aerys' getting madder.

It's clear that at this point, Rhaegar could convince Aerys of what he wanted, even to part with his precious hostage - or simply override him and take this hostage away. Stands close to reason that he could have done the same with Elia and the children. He chose not to, for reasons of his own.

Besides, I see no reason for Rhaegar to keep considering Aegon one of the heads of the dragon if he realized the kid wasn't the PWWP. If he realized he was wrong about one thing, why not the whole? Aegon and his sisters were full siblings, not born to different mothers.

Sons of the Dragon gave us an account of just how Aegon, the man who created the precedent for polygamous kings, settled the things in his own family. He sent Visenya whom he had reasons to be fond of, with her being his sister and having helped him a lot in his conquest and after, away. My guess is that Elia and her children were going to be sent away and Rhaegar would have settled for making the three heads of the dragons anew with Lyanna. That's if he started to believe that his son with Elia wasn't as important as he thought, of course. I think it's either one or the other. No middle ground like, "Rhaegar realized the kid was not so important but thought he was pretty important anyway." If anything, Rhaegar never did things in half.

[stateofdissipation]

L was a hostage to Ned until he learned the truth. Ask yourself this: if L was truly a hostage, why does Ned consider the three KG, and Dayne in particular, to be the best examples of knights and KG EVER?

Aerys might expect H to come back to R, but if Aerys never told H to come home then R can give H and order and well..that's Aerys' fault for not being clear.

All Aerys' orders were: tell Rhaegar to come to KL. That's it. Those were the orders.

Ask yourself this: if L was truly a hostage, why does Ned consider the three KG, and Dayne in particular, to be the best examples of knights and KG EVER?

Yet these were no ordinary three.--- aGoT page 409

Afterward; Ser Oswell Whent helped Jamie to his feet,and the White Bull himself, Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower, fastened the snowy cloak of the Kingsguard about his shoulders.--- 607-608aGoT

Brandon fell to him(Rhaegar), and Bronze Yohn Royce, and even the splendid Arthur Dayne, the Sword of morning --aGoT page 608

"The finest knight I ever saw was Ser Arthur Dayne, who fought with a blade called Dawn, forged from the heart of a fallen star, They called him the Sword of the Morning, and he would have killed me but for Howland Reed." Father had gotten sad then , and he would say no more,---aCoK page 332

Ask yourself this: if L was truly a hostage, Aerys truly murdered Brandon and Rickard why does Ned consider the three KG, and Dayne in particular, to be the best examples of knights and KG EVER?

Instead , they took him to the throne room and suspended him from the rafters while two of Aerys' pyromancers kindled a blaze beneath him. The king told him that fire was the champion of House Targaryen. So all Lord Rickard had to do to prove himself innocent was... well, not burn.--aCoK 721

When the fire was blazing Brandon was brought in. His hands were chained behind his back, and around his neck was a wet leathern cord attached to a device the king had brought from Tyrosh. His legs were free though and his longsword was set down just out of his reach--aCoK 721

Next he would start to cook, Aerys promised... unless his son could free him. The more he struggled, the tighter the cord consrticted around his throat. In the end, he strangled himself.--aCoK 721

"As for Lord Rickard, the steel of his breastplate turned cherry-red before the end, and his gold melted off his spurs and dripped down into the fire. I stood at the foot of the Iron Throne in my white armor and white cloak, filling my head with thoughts of Cersei. After, Gerold Hightower himself took me aside and said to me, ‘You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.' That was the White Bull, loyal to the end and a better man than me, all agree."--Jamie Lannister-aCoK 721

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Gods, this thread goes fast....

As to Rhaella having been the person who told Gerold Hightower where to find Rhaegar: that creates the problem that more people must have known about ToJ, as Ned learns somewhere around Storm's End where Lyanna is (I doubt he would have gone to SE first if he had known her location before), and someone must have told him. It can't have been Rhaella, because Rhaella was on Dragonstone.

As to whether Rhaegar believed that Aegon was TPTwP: I guess we disagree. I've already shown once that Aegon fitted more criteria than Jon. In addition, the idea on Jon would need Rhaegar to be expecting a boy.. Though the term "song of ice and fire" will have multiple correct interpretations, there will only be one interpretation per scenario. In he scenario of the prophecy about the promised prince, we are most likely talking about the battle between the Others (Ice) and the Promised Prince (a Targaryen Prince; Fire).

That doesn't mean that the song can't be associated with Jon in anoger scenario (probably a bit more overall, looking at the story).

[stateofdissipation]

Ned did not have some time.

--Ned arrives at KL after the sack

--Ned and Robert fight about Rhaegar's two children

--Ned rides out to Storm's End to break the siege and force the Tyrell's to bend the knee

--Ned rides with 6 men to the ToJ where he finds L in her bed of blood

Timeline we know for sure

--Jon was born around the time of the Sack of KL up to a month after it

Other things we think we know

--Lyanna died of puerpal fever which claims the life of the mother 3-10 days after birth.

Things to bear in mind

--GRRM has acknowledged that he is really (really really) bad with distances and time. He doesn't want people to point out if he's made a mistake.

Ned only had a month at most, and a lot of that was getting to SE and lifting the siege and that's likely where someone told him about Lyanna and the TOJ

Why would Varys tell them? I'm curious, honestly. What does he stand to gain from it?

Ned did not have some time.

--Ned arrives at KL after the sack

--Ned and Robert fight about Rhaegar's two children

--Ned rides out to Storm's End to break the siege and force the Tyrell's to bend the knee

--Ned rides with 6 men to the ToJ where he finds L in her bed of blood

"I know every secret of the bloody bed, silver lady, nor have I ever lost a babe." Mirri Maz Duur replied.--aGoT page 650

"That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain."

- AFfC p. 21

Timeline we know for sure

--Jon was born around the time of the Sack of KL up to a month after it

...Dany was born 9 moons after Rhaella fled King's Landing

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.GRRM http://www.westeros....SSM/Entry/1040/

Other things we think we know

--Lyanna died of puerpal fever which claims the life of the mother 3-10 days after birth.

"I was with her when she died." Ned reminded the king. "She wanted to come home, to rest beside Brandon and father." He could still hear her at times. Promise me, she had cried in that room that smelled of blood and roses. Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been as faint as a whisper, but when he had given his word, the fear had gone out of his sister's eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm dead and black. After that he remembered nothing. They found him still holding her body. Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his, Ned could recall none of it. "I bring her flowers when I can," he said. "Lyanna was... fond of flowers."--aGoT page 40 paperback.

For Lyanna to die when Ned arrived 7 to 10 days after birth---Ned had to make an average of 50 miles a day from the Trident to the ToJ over SE 1300 miles. For the KG to have been guarding a king.. news had to travel at 6/7ths to 5/7ths of Ned's speed over 950 miles. That is pretty specific... for a writer that is not specific about distances and times.

We do not have any indication of how long after the showdown Lyanna died.

We do not have any indication of how long news took to reach the ToJ.

Things to bear in mind

--GRRM has acknowledged that he is really (really really) bad with distances and time. He doesn't want people to point out if he's made a mistake.

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.---GRRM

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Chronology_and_Distances

Ned only had a month at most, and a lot of that was getting to SE and lifting the siege and that's likely where someone told him about Lyanna and the TOJ

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.GRRM http://www.westeros....SSM/Entry/1040/

[Jon Weirgaryen]

He didn't say, I cannot take you because my father won't let me. He said, I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour. Meaning, he could have taken Jaime. He just chose not to, for reasons of his own - he deemed that taking Jaime away was not worth it to risk Aerys' getting madder.

That train of thought had never occurred to me. I like it.

Nor has this...

Sons of the Dragon gave us an account of just how Aegon, the man who created the precedent for polygamous kings, settled the things in his own family. He sent Visenya whom he had reasons to be fond of, with her being his sister and having helped him a lot in his conquest and after, away. My guess is that Elia and her children were going to be sent away and Rhaegar would have settled for making the three heads of the dragons anew with Lyanna.

... which is interesting, because I am uncertain if that was what a "Rhaegar" figure would ever do. Or as @Rhaenys_Targaryen says probably isn't what he was after. But it would be another way out, should Aegon prove he was not tPtwP.

[Ygrain]

As to Rhaella having been the person who told Gerold Hightower where to find Rhaegar: that creates the problem that more people must have known about ToJ, as Ned learns somewhere around Storm's End where Lyanna is (I doubt he would have gone to SE first if he had known her location before), and someone must have told him. It can't have been Rhaella, because Rhaella was on Dragonstone.

I'm not ruling out the whole possibility that Ned learned only at SE, but I disagree with your line of reasoning.. Ned had a duty to do which he couldn't just pass away to someone because it 1) wouldn't be the right thing to do, and 2) would make people wonder. Plus, as long as ToJ was not compromised, Lyanna was not in danger.

[Doorlocks]

Gods, this thread goes fast....

As to Rhaella having been the person who told Gerold Hightower where to find Rhaegar: that creates the problem that more people must have known about ToJ, as Ned learns somewhere around Storm's End where Lyanna is (I doubt he would have gone to SE first if he had known her location before), and someone must have told him. It can't have been Rhaella, because Rhaella was on Dragonstone.

As to whether Rhaegar believed that Aegon was TPTwP: I guess we disagree. I've already shown once that Aegon fitted more criteria than Jon. In addition, the idea on Jon would need Rhaegar to be expecting a boy.. Though the term "song of ice and fire" will have multiple correct interpretations, there will only be one interpretation per scenario. In he scenario of the prophecy about the promised prince, we are most likely talking about the battle between the Others (Ice) and the Promised Prince (a Targaryen Prince; Fire).

That doesn't mean that the song can't be associated with Jon in anoger scenario (probably a bit more overall, looking at the story).

I think one of the most important elements of our peak into Rhaegar's life via Dany's HotU is that, despite dedicating his life to studying the prophecy, he didn't think it necessary that The Song belong to someone that was a mixture of Ice and Fire. If anything, Aegon was as pure fire as Rhaegar could have without marrying a Targaryen: Martell Sun + Targaryen Dragon

[The guy from the Vale]

This is absolutely crazy. I'm off the page for one day and the new R+L=J thread is already on page 15?... I have no words.

Well, except for "calm down, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon!" - waiting for the next book is, anyway.

Only catching up on the last page of this thread, not jumping back further - it's just not worth it at the pace you guys and gals are going.

Anyway, while I don't think Rhaegar changed his mind about Aegon being tPtwP either, he may still have been very wrong. Basically, there are four options in that case:

1. Rhaegar was right and Aegon was TPtwP. Aegon died during the sack. Result: Westeros is screwed.

2. Rhaegar was right and Aegon was spirited away. While Varys suggests that's what happened, I don't trust the Spider, and there's lots going on around Young Griff that to me do not imply him being Rhaegar's son.

3. Rhaegar was wrong twice, both about the identity and the gender; TPtwP is Dany. Technically possible but narratively unfulfilling after Aemon's "reveal" that was based on incomplete information.

4. Rhaegar was wrong once: TPtwP is Jon. Makes the most sense to me, and creates dramatic irony in the sense that Rhaegar sired tPtwP, but he isn't who Rhaegar thought he would be.

[Attitude]

Anyway, while I don't think Rhaegar changed his mind about Aegon being tPtwP either, he may still have been very wrong. Basically, there are four options in that case:

5. GRRM is pulling a prank on us. There is no tPtwP AA® or three heads.

6. GRRM is pulling a prank on us. There is someone else (Maybe not even targ related) who is tPtwP (and AA®).

7. You can fill in a lot more probably..

[Jon Weirgaryen]

7. All the POV characters fulfill all of the prophecies in a group effort, and unknowingly.

[J. Stargaryen]

This is absolutely crazy. I'm off the page for one day and the new R+L=J thread is already on page 15?... I have no words.

Well, except for "calm down, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon!" - waiting for the next book is, anyway.

Only catching up on the last page of this thread, not jumping back further - it's just not worth it at the pace you guys and gals are going.

Anyway, while I don't think Rhaegar changed his mind about Aegon being tPtwP either, he may still have been very wrong. Basically, there are four options in that case:

1. Rhaegar was right and Aegon was TPtwP. Aegon died during the sack. Result: Westeros is screwed.

2. Rhaegar was right and Aegon was spirited away. While Varys suggests that's what happened, I don't trust the Spider, and there's lots going on around Young Griff that to me do not imply him being Rhaegar's son.

3. Rhaegar was wrong twice, both about the identity and the gender; TPtwP is Dany. Technically possible but narratively unfulfilling after Aemon's "reveal" that was based on incomplete information.

4. Rhaegar was wrong once: TPtwP is Jon. Makes the most sense to me, and creates dramatic irony in the sense that Rhaegar sired tPtwP, but he isn't who Rhaegar thought he would be.

Don't worry, you didn't miss much. Lot of the same old stuff.

---

Is anybody bothered or annoyed when there are overlapping threads? That is, when one of us opens the next version of the thread before the pinned one is locked? Personally, I'm not a big fan of it. Of course it's actually my fault because I was the first one to do this. :dunce: I didn't mean for it to become standard operating procedure though. I only did it the one time because someone mentioned to me that it was time to open the next thread, and I was leaving.

If nobody else cares, no big deal. Otherwise I think it makes more sense to go back to the way it used to be; continue posting in the currently pinned thread until it is locked, and then someone can open a new version once that happens.

[Lord Varys]

No one ever said that Hightower found Rhaegar quickly. But the close proximity to Dorne could mean that the ToJ was actually a sight owned once by the Daynes, meaning that Prince Lewyn or Ashara could know about it.

On the events leading up to everything:

My guess is that the mistrust between Aerys and Rhaegar very much caused the Rebellion in the first place, because neither father nor son fully grasp how they themselves - and the lords - would react to the whole thing. Aerys and his cronies must have been aware what kind of trouble the breaking of marriage contracts caused for Aegon V, so he most likely would have considered that - if he had not been mad, or preoccupied by mistrusting Rhaegar.

I think that Aerys did not deal with the Starks as harshly as he did because Brandon threatened his son, I think he may not have believed that he was threatening him at all, but was somehow involved in a consiracy against him along with Rhaegar, an alliance that was sealed by the marriage between Lyanna and Rhaegar.

Rhaegar, on the other hand, was even more stupid. He, too, should have been aware of the history of House Targaryen, he should have known what his grandfather and great-uncles did when they broke marriage contracts and took the wrong spouses (even if we don't as of yet).

He failed to contemplate what his mad father might be doing - the one he actually wanted to depose just a short while ago - nor did he apparently grasp what the Starks and Robert might be doing (or worse, he didn't care).

The fact that Rhaegar later apparently became the champion of House Targaryen later during the war does not contradict this. Aerys was mad, he could change his mind. And the political situation within the faction of the Targaryen loyalists may have changed in Rhaegar's favor, anyway. He was a warrior, and apparently not mad. That could have been important in a war...

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Is anybody bothered or annoyed when there are overlapping threads? That is, when one of us opens the next version of the thread before the pinned one is locked? Personally, I'm not a big fan of it. Of course it's actually my fault because I was the first one to do this. :dunce: I didn't mean for it to become standard operating procedure though. I only did it the one time because someone mentioned to me that it was time to open the next thread, and I was leaving.

If nobody else cares, no big deal. Otherwise I think it makes more sense to go back to the way it used to be; continue posting in the currently pinned thread until it is locked, and then someone can open a new version once that happens.

It wouldn't be such a big deal, if as soon as someone states in the old thread that a new one has been made, all the posts from that moment on are made in the new thread.

But indeed, perhaps there should be some more time in between the reporting, and the making of a new thread. I know we do it now to make the flow from old to new thread more fluent, but perhaps, it is too much at the moment :)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

No one ever said that Hightower found Rhaegar quickly. But the close proximity to Dorne could mean that the ToJ was actually a sight owned once by the Daynes, meaning that Prince Lewyn or Ashara could know about it.

On the events leading up to everything:

My guess is that the mistrust between Aerys and Rhaegar very much caused the Rebellion in the first place, because neither father nor son fully grasp how they themselves - and the lords - would react to the whole thing. Aerys and his cronies must have been aware what kind of trouble the breaking of marriage contracts caused for Aegon V, so he most likely would have considered that - if he had not been mad, or preoccupied by mistrusting Rhaegar.

I think that Aerys did not deal with the Starks as harshly as he did because Brandon threatened his son, I think he may not have believed that he was threatening him at all, but was somehow involved in a consiracy against him along with Rhaegar, an alliance that was sealed by the marriage between Lyanna and Rhaegar.

Rhaegar, on the other hand, was even more stupid. He, too, should have been aware of the history of House Targaryen, he should have known what his grandfather and great-uncles did when they broke marriage contracts and took the wrong spouses (even if we don't as of yet).

He failed to contemplate what his mad father might be doing - the one he actually wanted to depose just a short while ago - nor did he apparently grasp what the Starks and Robert might be doing (or worse, he didn't care).

The fact that Rhaegar later apparently became the champion of House Targaryen later during the war does not contradict this. Aerys was mad, he could change his mind. And the political situation within the faction of the Targaryen loyalists may have changed in Rhaegar's favor, anyway. He was a warrior, and apparently not mad. That could have been important in a war...

Could it have been the case that Aerys chosing Rhaegar as the champion of House Targaryen during the war, shows how desperate Aerys was? That he saw no other option than asking the person he hadn't trusted 100% for a few years for help?

[lareine]

Aerys and his cronies must have been aware what kind of trouble the breaking of marriage contracts caused for Aegon V, so he most likely would have considered that - if he had not been mad, or preoccupied by mistrusting Rhaegar.

This is definitely some more recent history that I'd love to learn more about. Great houses can carry grudges for generations. I wonder which families were snubbed by Aegon V allowing his children to marry for love?

[Lord Varys]

Well, it seems as if Aerys wanted Rhaegar to deal with the Rebellion rather early on. It has been said that he chose Connington as Hand because he could not find Rhaegar. Eventually he would have realized, I guess, that the rebels wanted his and Rhaegar's head, so they did share a common enemy.

[J. Stargaryen]

I like how in every post of his, Lord Varys has made sure to state that Rhaegar and/or his actions wrt to Lyanna were "stupid." In the end, what really made him look stupid is that he lost to Robert on the Trident. If the fight had gone the other way, he likely ends up as the king. That's not to say that he is beyond reproach. Because, like every other character in the story, he was imperfect. But, I'm not a big fan of people trying to pass off their personal dislike of a character as legitimate criticism.

While we don't for sure know what is going to happen, consider for a moment that the child Rhaegar had with Lyanna is the odds on favorite to be the savior of humanity. Total idiot, right?

It wouldn't be such a big deal, if as soon as someone states in the old thread that a new one has been made, all the posts from that moment on are made in the new thread.

But indeed, perhaps there should be some more time in between the reporting, and the making of a new thread. I know we do it now to make the flow from old to new thread more fluent, but perhaps, it is too much at the moment :)

This is exactly what I think is the problem.

[Lord Varys]

The fact that I call people stupid is no proof that I don't like that. I also happen to like Aenys I, although he most certainly was stupid...

Rhaegar was stupid politically, that's all I'm saying. He caused a rebellion and thus the death of thousands of people for either love or 'prophecy'.

One could also make a case that people who consider themselves to be tool of gods, i.e. who try to fulfill ancient prophecies, have serious issues of their own...

And do you really think Rhaegar could have given the Realm peace as king, assuming that he could somehow bloodlessly depose Aerys - if he had to kill him, things would have been even worse -, with two wives?

The next succession crisis would have followed soon after...