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R+L =J v.105


Jon Weirgaryen

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Things we know:

Cat and Ned married and he went away almost immediately afterwards

They were apart for about a year.

She conceived Jon on the first try.

Jon was already at Winterfell when Cat arrived with Robb.

Jon was born around the time of the sack of King's Landing (because Dany was born 9 months afterwards and he is about 8-9 months earlier)

The war lasted about a year.

So, working from that information, we can glean that:

1. Ned and Cat were married about 2-3 months into the war.

2. Robb was about 2-3 months old when Ned arrived back from war.

3. The sack of KL happened about 9 months after Ned left Catelyn to go to war.

4. It took Ned about 3 months after the sack to make his way back to Winterfell.

5. Jon was also about 2-3 months old when Catelyn first saw him at Winterfell.

So, while we can't be completely certain that Jon is younger, he and Robb are very close in age to one another- so much so that Jon's nameday is probably his actual nameday and Ned didn't lie about it. I would say that we were told the truth about Jon being a little younger than Robb- but in the end, it doesn't matter.

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Afterwards, sure. Godric Borrell also told Davos she named the boy Jon, after Jon Arryn. THAT is most certainly ex post facto knowledge; the pregnancy could be as well.

There is an SSM, Daenerys was named by her father, Tyrion was named by his father, and Jon was named by Ned.

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There is an SSM, Daenerys was named by her father, Tyrion was named by his father, and Jon was named by Ned.

And? Borrell is repeating a rumor, passed on to him by his father.

My premise is not that the details of the FD rumor are factual, but that the FD rumor is based on factual events.

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Is Lyanna's date of death known (to Westeros)? If so, he might tell people that Jon was born after Lyanna died, even if he was before, as to not raise suspicion there.



Perhaps that's how he came to say Jon was younger than Robb? If you fear the baby and your entire family could be at stake if you fail to come up with a good cover story, you have to change the dates some bit here.



If there would be suspicion of Lyanna having died giving birth to the heir + die from the fever (10 days later, tops?), then you just put the birth of the baby a few weeks or so later. It doesn't have to be much more, but a bit nonetheless as an extra measure.



Which, counting back, could have put Jon 'being conceived' by Ned right after Ned left Catelyn, unfortunately.



A few weeks wouldn't be that much difference in development, perhaps. He could just be a little bit 'faster', or perhaps he was a bit behind anyway.


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And? Borrell is repeating a rumor, passed on to him by his father.

My premise is not that the details of the FD rumor are factual, but that the FD rumor is based on factual events.

But, you see, the FD could not have named Jon Snow that we know. ;)

Then you still have a massive timeline issue, as after leaving the Sisters Ned raises his banners, requiring some weeks, if not months. (Who is loyalist and must be dealt with?) Then he marches them south, all of the way t o Stoney Sept to rescure Robert, more than a month. Then they march back to Riverrun. Then Ned gets married, at the same wedding as Jon Arryn. Ned stays with Catelyn long enough to see her with child. (MMmmm, read that one again. How long would it take to make sure that Catelyn is pregnant?) Then Ned marches off to war, once again. ;)

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We do know that Ned made promises to Lyanna. Fourteen years since the end of the rebellion, but fifteen years since the beginning, and sixteen since Harrenhal. Hmmm ... As I said, unrelated.

We do know that Ned made promises to Lyanna.

this was not questioned...

Fourteen years since the end of the rebellion,

Jon was brought to Winterfell at the end of the war--aGoT page 62

Jon turned 15 on his next name day.--aGoT page 50

Jon was born within a month or thereabouts--SSM after the Trident and the sack--aGoTpage 27

It had been fourteen years within a month or thereabouts since the Trident-sack of King's Landing plus the time since Jon's last nameday.

The beginning of the war was almost a year before the sack of King's Landing

The war had raged for close to a year. aGoT page 110

The beginning of the war was 14 years (within a month or thereabouts) plus the time since Jon's last nameday and almost a year.

If the time since Jon's last nameday added to "nearly a year" add up to a year ... make a year then the war started 15 years before.

If "nearly a year" plus the time since Jon's last nameday do not add up to a year.... the war started 14 years before.

If the time since Jon's last nameday plus nearly a year plus the travel from Winterfell adds up to 2 years. Ned's lies started up to a year after Jon was born,

Troubled sleep was no stranger to him {Ned}. He had lived lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night.--aGoT page 109

Hmmm ... As I said, unrelated.

Your hope or need for the 14 years of Ned's lies to line up with Jon's birth... do not increase the likelihood of that having happened.

Notably, I did not include the "when" for Ned learning the cause for starting the rebellion was a lie. Ned learning the truth after the Battle of the Bells or around the time of the Trident. would make it 14 years old on his trip to King's Landing.

The lies Ned lived and the promise he made to his sister.... are both unknown... a link between them is also unknown.

Inventing a link to support RLJ... is exactly that, an invention... it is not given and there are other possibilities.

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1. Ned and Cat were married about 2-3 months into the war.

Strictly impossible. Better make that 5 months.

Rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, fights in the vale. Ned crosses mountains and The Bite to White Harbor (1st month), travels to Winterfell and calls Northern banners (2nd month), leads armies south (at least two more months to reach the Trident) and more than the fifth month to reach Stoney Sept in time and return north to Riverrun for the wedding.

Second rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, Roberts fights the battle of Gulltown. next he travels to the Storm's End presumably by ship to make it in time to call his banners and march South not to miss the 3 battles of Summerhall, nearly impossible to make that in less than 2 months, but he did! Next thing he takes his prisoners all the long way back to SE for hunting, befriends them and marches off to war again, this time to lay siege to Ashford castle. All this again at the amazing speed of less than 2 months. Gets defeated there and flees north. Makes Stoney Sept a little earlier than Ned in another ~6 weeks presumably spent fleeing and fighting more battles. Makes roughly 5 months.

4. It took Ned about 3 months after the sack to make his way back to Winterfell.

Make that 5 months, too. Allow him 2 weeks each to reach first SE and next TOJ and build cairns there. Next to Starfall, that's quite a distance, too. Two months there. To travel back to KL (if that was his route) is about the same distance, and from KL to Winterfell again another two months makes alltogether 6 months. Maybe he went a little faster or at least one journey by sea had the most favourable winds, then it's no more than 5.

2. Robb was about 2-3 months old when Ned arrived back from war.

[...]

5. Jon was also about 2-3 months old when Catelyn first saw him at Winterfell.

I doubt it. Because of travelling times... they must be older.

The idea that they are roughly the same age, give or take 1...2...3 months is correct, though, that does not change.

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None of this is answering my question. All we know is that Jon and Dany were born 8 to 9 months apart, and that Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella fled KL. If Jon's conception occured earlier, than Dany's birth occurs earlier.. As long as Jon is born in 283AC, and Dany in 284AC, then all works out fine. That Jon was born in 283AC, doesn't say anything on when his conception was.

I originally though so too, but then, after lots of timeline work, I started to wonder again, and eventually, I just made a thread about it (can't recall at the moment if you participated in that or not).

Someone actually seems to remember a video interview from GRRM (released after Dance, but exact year is unknown), where GRRM answers the question of "who's older, Robb or Jon?" with a short "Jon", adding that it wasn't by much.

I have been too busy since then to actually go to Westeros.org and listen to all those video's posted between 2011 and 2014, but if the World book doesn't give the answer (and I haven't had the time before then to watch some of those video's), and no one else in between manages to find that video, than I'll go watch those video's, I guess.. To figure out if that person remembered correctly.

Here's the thread, in case you'd like to participate.

People "generally" start to show in the 2nd or 3rd month.. Then you'll start to see slightly. But that is generally. There are also women who don't notice that they are pregnant until they give birth, both heavier women and skinny women (extremely dangerous for the child, such a scenario).

None of this is answering my question. All we know is that Jon and Dany were born 8 to 9 months apart, and that Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella fled KL. If Jon's conception occured earlier, than Dany's birth occurs earlier.. As long as Jon is born in 283AC, and Dany in 284AC, then all works out fine. That Jon was born in 283AC, doesn't say anything on when his conception was.

Dany's conception was 9 months before Rhaella's flight from King's Landing.

Jon's birth is given as 8 or 9 months or thereabouts before that... conception nine months before that.

Ned went north across the mountains towards Winterfell while Jon and Robert were fighting the first battles of the war. The war raged for almost a year before Rhaella's flight ..

If Lyanna was the fisherman's daughter, she was pregnant nearly a year before Rhaella got pregnant.... instead of the 8 or 9 months or thereabouts given in the SSM.

Now the original post had Lyanna confirmed as pregnant. That pushes conception back...We now have Lyanna becomes pregnant nearly a year plus a month before Rhaella became pregnant.

Without the "confirmed pregnant"... I could accept that 9 months or thereabouts is nearly a year.

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The lies Ned lived and the promise he made to his sister.... are both unknown... a link between them is also unknown.

Inventing a link to support RLJ... is exactly that, an invention... it is not given and there are other possibilities.

Ned had lived his lies for fourteen years, how old is Jon? His next nameday he is fifteen, but surprisingly Ned's lies match the number of years that Jon has been around. The link is there, for those who don't insist on verbatim linkages.

To postulate various nefarious workings that Ned becomes privy to later, but never thinks or speaks of, to change the meaning of the above link is pure speculation. It is somewhat akin to modifying what Ned thinks the Kingsguard's vow is. Or, wait, it can't be the Kingsguard's vow, since that is just a promise to obey.

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Strictly impossible. Better make that 5 months.

Rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, fights in the vale. Ned crosses mountains and The Bite to White Harbor (1st month), travels to Winterfell and calls Northern banners (2nd month), leads armies south (at least two more months to reach the Trident) and more than the fifth month to reach Stoney Sept in time and return north to Riverrun for the wedding.

Second rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, Roberts fights the battle of Gulltown. next he travels to the Storm's End presumably by ship to make it in time to call his banners and march South not to miss the 3 battles of Summerhall, nearly impossible to make that in less than 2 months, but he did! Next thing he takes his prisoners all the long way back to SE for hunting, befriends them and marches off to war again, this time to lay siege to Ashford castle. All this again at the amazing speed of less than 2 months. Gets defeated there and flees north. Makes Stoney Sept a little earlier than Ned in another ~6 weeks presumably spent fleeing and fighting more battles. Makes roughly 5 months.

Make that 5 months, too. Allow him 2 weeks each to reach first SE and next TOJ and build cairns there. Next to Starfall, that's quite a distance, too. Two months there. To travel back to KL (if that was his route) is about the same distance, and from KL to Winterfell again another two months makes alltogether 6 months. Maybe he went a little faster or at least one journey by sea had the most favourable winds, then it's no more than 5.

I doubt it. Because of travelling times... they must be older.

The idea that they are roughly the same age, give or take 1...2...3 months is correct, though, that does not change.

Just wondering why Ned's trip from the Ayrie to Winterfell to Riverrun to the Stony Sept 1900 miles takes 20 weeks while the 950 mile trek from King's Landing to the tower of joy over Storm's End takes 2 weeks?

and how does the 1100 mile trip from toj to Starfall to King's Landing take 18 weeks after making 950 in 2 weeks?

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Just wondering why Ned's trip from the Ayrie to Winterfell to Riverrun to the Stony Sept 1900 miles takes 20 weeks while the 950 mile trek from King's Landing to the tower of joy over Storm's End takes 2 weeks?

and how does the 1100 mile trip from toj to Starfall to King's Landing take 18 weeks after making 950 in 2 weeks?

Because GRRM isn't overly concerned with that.

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Strictly impossible. Better make that 5 months.

Rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, fights in the vale. Ned crosses mountains and The Bite to White Harbor (1st month), travels to Winterfell and calls Northern banners (2nd month), leads armies south (at least two more months to reach the Trident) and more than the fifth month to reach Stoney Sept in time and return north to Riverrun for the wedding.

Second rough outline: Jon Arryn calls banners, Roberts fights the battle of Gulltown. next he travels to the Storm's End presumably by ship to make it in time to call his banners and march South not to miss the 3 battles of Summerhall, nearly impossible to make that in less than 2 months, but he did! Next thing he takes his prisoners all the long way back to SE for hunting, befriends them and marches off to war again, this time to lay siege to Ashford castle. All this again at the amazing speed of less than 2 months. Gets defeated there and flees north. Makes Stoney Sept a little earlier than Ned in another ~6 weeks presumably spent fleeing and fighting more battles. Makes roughly 5 months.

Make that 5 months, too. Allow him 2 weeks each to reach first SE and next TOJ and build cairns there. Next to Starfall, that's quite a distance, too. Two months there. To travel back to KL (if that was his route) is about the same distance, and from KL to Winterfell again another two months makes alltogether 6 months. Maybe he went a little faster or at least one journey by sea had the most favourable winds, then it's no more than 5.

I doubt it. Because of travelling times... they must be older.

The idea that they are roughly the same age, give or take 1...2...3 months is correct, though, that does not change.

Can't be 5 months for travel, we know that Ned is gone about 12 months and it would mean that Robb would be much younger.

Like the others above said, Martin wasn't too concerned about how much time it SHOULD have taken, he simply wrote it with the amount of time he wanted it to take. So, based on his information, it took 2-3 months for him to do everything after the Sack of KL until he went to Winterfell.

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But, you see, the FD could not have named Jon Snow that we know. ;)

Then you still have a massive timeline issue, as after leaving the Sisters Ned raises his banners, requiring some weeks, if not months. (Who is loyalist and must be dealt with?) Then he marches them south, all of the way t o Stoney Sept to rescure Robert, more than a month. Then they march back to Riverrun. Then Ned gets married, at the same wedding as Jon Arryn. Ned stays with Catelyn long enough to see her with child. (MMmmm, read that one again. How long would it take to make sure that Catelyn is pregnant?) Then Ned marches off to war, once again. ;)

First, I'm not saying that the FD DID name Jon...Borrell only says she did based on his/his father's rumor-mill-based conclusion. The takeaway of this Davos exchange is that Ned was seen in the Sisters at the start of the Rebellion with a mysterious young girl that is rumored to be the mother of one Jon Snow - a mother whose current wherebouts are unmentioned/unknown, I might add.

Next, I suppose I'm not understanding the "massive" timeline issue. Are you saying that it isn't possible due to the number of months between Ned's departure from the Fingers to the BoTB? IMO that supports it even more, because the further out you put the BotB within the "close to a year" RR timeline, the less likely it is that Jon was conceived AFTER Robb but still born 8-9 months prior to Dany. I mean, assuming that we are talking a normal 40 weeks human gestation and not one of Mel's shadow insta-babies, anyway.

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None of this is answering my question. All we know is that Jon and Dany were born 8 to 9 months apart, and that Dany was born 9 months after Rhaella fled KL. If Jon's conception occured earlier, than Dany's birth occurs earlier.. As long as Jon is born in 283AC, and Dany in 284AC, then all works out fine. That Jon was born in 283AC, doesn't say anything on when his conception was.

Dany's conception was 9 months before Rhaella's flight from King's Landing.

Jon's birth is given as 8 or 9 months or thereabouts before that... conception nine months before that.

Ned went north across the mountains towards Winterfell while Jon and Robert were fighting the first battles of the war. The war raged for almost a year before Rhaella's flight ..

If Lyanna was the fisherman's daughter, she was pregnant nearly a year before Rhaella got pregnant.... instead of the 8 or 9 months or thereabouts given in the SSM.

Now the original post had Lyanna confirmed as pregnant. That pushes conception back...We now have Lyanna becomes pregnant nearly a year plus a month before Rhaella became pregnant.

Without the "confirmed pregnant"... I could accept that 9 months or thereabouts is nearly a year.

Ned wouldn't have needed to impregnate the girl upon arriving at shore. We don't know exactly how long his travel took, nor are we 100% certain whether Robb is older than Jon.

If Jon was conceived in 282AC, and Robb in 283AC (that Robb was conceived in 283AC, that we know), then Jon is a few months (1 or 2) older than Robb. Meaning that when the Sack occured, Robb wasn't born yet. We have no idea whether Robb was born before the end of the war or after.

But most importantly, we have no idea (currently) how long it took Ned to travel to the Sisters. Especially if Jon is older than Robb, then there were quite a few months time before Ned could have arrived at the Sisters.. The first part of the journey, for as far as is known, he went by foot, after all.

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Ned had lived his lies for fourteen years, how old is Jon? His next nameday he is fifteen, but surprisingly Ned's lies match the number of years that Jon has been around. The link is there, for those who don't insist on verbatim linkages.

To postulate various nefarious workings that Ned becomes privy to later, but never thinks or speaks of, to change the meaning of the above link is pure speculation. It is somewhat akin to modifying what Ned thinks the Kingsguard's vow is. Or, wait, it can't be the Kingsguard's vow, since that is just a promise to obey.

Jon's age matches the number of years Ned has lived his lies....

Most people with a rice heavy diet have dark hair..

There is a distinct link... the link does not establish identity, in your case, or causality in the case of the dark hair and rice.

14 years before Ned was on the road to King's Landing there were many things that happened.

The postulation that Ned's secret is something other than Jon... is no more speculative than insisting that it can only be Jon.

The postulation that the rebellion was based on a lie.... points to evidence of Aery's behavior and how that does not match what Jon Arryn claimed Aerys demanded. It also points to the fact that without lyanna's kidnapping the houses that rebelled would have been bound to each other through marriage.

Helen of Troy... the face that launched a thousand ships... nice story. Greece's trade competition with Troy should not be ignored.

The mad king... his murderous ways caused the rebellion... nice story. The schemes and plots of the great Lords should not be ignored.

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First, I'm not saying that the FD DID name Jon...Borrell only says she did based on his/his father's rumor-mill-based conclusion. The takeaway of this Davos exchange is that Ned was seen in the Sisters at the start of the Rebellion with a mysterious young girl that is rumored to be the mother of one Jon Snow - a mother whose current wherebouts are unmentioned/unknown, I might add.

Next, I suppose I'm not understanding the "massive" timeline issue. Are you saying that it isn't possible due to the number of months between Ned's departure from the Fingers to the BoTB? IMO that supports it even more, because the further out you put the BotB within the "close to a year" RR timeline, the less likely it is that Jon was conceived AFTER Robb but still born 8-9 months prior to Dany. I mean, assuming that we are talking a normal 40 weeks human gestation and not one of Mel's shadow insta-babies, anyway.

I don't agree, and will never agree. Jon's mother can be identified from GoT only. Wylla and Ashara are the only suggested possibilities there, the red herring fisherman's daughter is only introduced in the fourth book.

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It's ridiculous that they shun him, even if he's Stark on the wrong side. He shouldn't have to drop half of his family just because his father was the Targ, not his mother.

Unless they truly didn't even *want* a Targ marriage, even though they bent to them.

Childish motherf*.

Jon doesn't know that there is more to his dream. His "truth" is that he's a bastard (which he very well could still be even if his parents were R & L (Jon Rivers?). Anyway you slice it, blood doesn't take Jon to Winterfell, other than his dead cousin's decree.

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Ned wouldn't have needed to impregnate the girl upon arriving at shore. We don't know exactly how long his travel took, nor are we 100% certain whether Robb is older than Jon.

If Jon was conceived in 282AC, and Robb in 283AC (that Robb was conceived in 283AC, that we know), then Jon is a few months (1 or 2) older than Robb. Meaning that when the Sack occured, Robb wasn't born yet. We have no idea whether Robb was born before the end of the war or after.

But most importantly, we have no idea (currently) how long it took Ned to travel to the Sisters. Especially if Jon is older than Robb, then there were quite a few months time before Ned could have arrived at the Sisters.. The first part of the journey, for as far as is known, he went by foot, after all.

I will leave off Jon being younger than Robb... and the logical question as to why Ned would claim him to be younger and make him a bastard born to a married man.. but ok.. I will also leave off the pregnant upon the shore... Though I took that as one of the givens in the post i replied to rather than inventing it myself.

We do not have months within years.... so using years is pretty pointless We do have known events and given times between them.

Correct, we do not know if Robb was born during or after the war. We also do not know if Jon was born during or after the war. It depends on "thereabouts" the time it takes to get from KL to toj over Storm's End... and when the war was "over."

We have an idea of how long it took Ned to travel to the sisters. It is a part of a journey that started at the Ayrie. Ned went to Winterfell to Riverrun, to the Stony Sept, to the Trident and on to King's Landing in "nearly a year." Ned's travel to the sisters took less than a year.

The part of the journey to Winterfell is unknown... including how long Ned walked.---

anyhow... I did not mean to exclude Lyanna being in the north... after Brandon rode south because Rhaegar had abducted her... after Rickard had ridden to answer the charges against Brandon... and after Jon Arryn reported that Aerys had called for Ned's and Robert's heads.... and after Jon Arryn had called his banners...

Though I am pretty sure I did not exclude that... i excluded a child conceived a year earlier from being a child that was conceived 8 or 9 months or thereabouts earlier.

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I don't agree, and will never agree. Jon's mother can be identified from GoT only. Wylla and Ashara are the only suggested possibilities there, the red herring fisherman's daughter is only introduced in the fourth book.

*blinks*

I honestly have no idea what is going on here.

To restate:

My theory is that Lyanna is the FD.

Ned smuggles her out of the Sisters at the start of the Rebellion, after the proverbial excrement has hit the air conditioning over her abduction-that-might-not-have-been and their father and brother have been killed.

This FD daughter supposedly 9 mos later gives Ned a bastard son named Jon. Lyanna births a son toward Rebellion's end that Ned claims is his bastard Jon.

The FD story is not to set up another Jon's mom theory, but a theory on 1) how Lyanna got to Dorne where she gave birth, 2) Ned's involvement in Lyanna's story.

I'm not sure how this is being misinterpreted.

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