Let's talk about GRRM's original plan

[Ibbison from Ibben]

The basic pattern in the draft certainly is at the core of the book story. The three main plot lines are established, they just all got ... vaster.

The struggle for the IT got vastly more complex.

Dany's story got vastly sidetracked.

The Other invasion got vastly delayed.

What got changed was the romance. GRRM doesn't write a lot of romance, at least in his books. (I didn't watch much of BatB.) He seems to have ditched the whole initial romantic angle. The "incest tension" arc between Jon and Arya was transferred to the Jaime-Cersei story in a very altered form. Tyrion and his brotherly love for Jaime was grafted onto that, forming a new triangle, which then fell apart.

In short, I think using the draft to make predictions about romantic relationships is a mistake, because that part is what GRRM completely changed. The rest of the story seems to be in rough agreement.

[Lord Varys]

Well, I guess if Sansa had known to be weary of the queen because, well, she might kill them, Sansa would not have gone to her, as simple as that.

We also see how in the story the whole Sansa-Joffrey-thing became impossible as George would clearly have realized 'How the hell can she still love Joffrey if his family has executed her father. Hell, wouldn't it be much more shocking if I let the boy give the order to do it?'

When that was decided, any chance for true affection/love/loyalty between Sansa and Joffrey was gone irrevocably. And the books then continue the story from there. But this does not mean that the Sansa conflict 'child against birth family' George has imagined back has been completely discarded. It could simply have been postponed to another time, with another love, and another scenario.

George has very deliberately separated all the Starks from each other, and nothing suggests that they will meet up to build a united front against their enemies soon. Rickon has a chance of becoming 'Stannis' Stark', Catelyn continues her revenge plans, Sansa may turn to her own ambitions, possibly involving Aegon VI, Arya's role is difficult to determine, Bran becomes a tree, and Jon Snow has to come back to life. Until Sansa and Arya become publicly known to be alive again, it is really hard to determine in which direction they will go - especially Arya. The best royal match for Sansa would be Aegon, but that should depend on what goes on with this whole Harry thing.

Ser Pounce FTW,

actually, if I was Littlefinger, and if I wanted to control and manipulate Sansa, I'd tell her exactly that.

And I'm not sure if it was a complete lie. The knowledge Cersei gained from Sansa enabled the Red Cloaks to take out Ned's guard in the castle. That was essentially Sansa's doing, and if Cersei had not known about Ned's plans to send Arya and Sansa away, both girls may have actually caught their ship...

Cersei explicitly credits Sansa for her success in the succession struggle when talking to Tyrion, and if Littlefinger was the one who sold out Ned/did all the hard work, it is strange that Janos Slynt and not Littlefinger was made Lord of Harrenhal back then. It is not unlikely that Cersei, knowing about Ned's schedule, ordered Littlefinger to secure the City Watch for her, and Slynt then demanded Harrenhal as his price. When Ned calls on Littlefinger late in the night, all of that may already have been arranged, and Littlefinger's pleas to go along with King Joffrey for now - against Stannis - only to replace him with Renly later on, may have been an attempt to convince Ned to not challenge Cersei. Sure, he would not have been too unhappy about Ned's demise, but Littlefinger clearly would have acquired much more power much more quickly under Ned as Lord Regent then under Cersei or Tywin (just because of the fact Ned was already greatly relying on him). The thing that clearly was the tipping point for Littlefinger was Ned's insistence that Stannis must be king. Littlefinger practically told him that Stannis would give the Realm a new Hand, and a new council - one in which they both would no longer serve. Ned may have wanted to go home, but Littlefinger didn't. It may be as simple as that...

[Ser Pounce FTW]

The basic pattern in the draft certainly is at the core of the book story. The three main plot lines are established, they just all got ... vaster.

The struggle for the IT got vastly more complex.

Dany's story got vastly sidetracked.

The Other invasion got vastly delayed.

What got changed was the romance. GRRM doesn't write a lot of romance, at least in his books. (I didn't watch much of BatB.) He seems to have ditched the whole initial romantic angle. The "incest tension" arc between Jon and Arya was transferred to the Jaime-Cersei story in a very altered form. Tyrion and his brotherly love for Jaime was grafted onto that, forming a new triangle, which then fell apart.

In short, I think using the draft to make predictions about romantic relationships is a mistake, because that part is what GRRM completely changed. The rest of the story seems to be in rough agreement.

I agree with this completely!

Well, I guess if Sansa had known to be weary of the queen because, well, she might kill them, Sansa would not have gone to her, as simple as that.

She did know to be weary of the queen but chose to ignore it because, as Cersei put it, "She was wet with love for Joffrey". But yes, she never imagined anyone would die.

Ser Pounce FTW,

actually, if I was Littlefinger, and if I wanted to control and manipulate Sansa, I'd tell her exactly that.

And I'm not sure if it was a complete lie. The knowledge Cersei gained from Sansa enabled the Red Cloaks to take out Ned's guard in the castle. That was essentially Sansa's doing, and if Cersei had not known about Ned's plans to send Arya and Sansa away, both girls may have actually caught their ship...

Cersei explicitly credits Sansa for her success in the succession struggle when talking to Tyrion, and if Littlefinger was the one who sold out Ned/did all the hard work, it is strange that Janos Slynt and not Littlefinger was made Lord of Harrenhal back then. It is not unlikely that Cersei, knowing about Ned's schedule, ordered Littlefinger to secure the City Watch for her, and Slynt then demanded Harrenhal as his price. When Ned calls on Littlefinger late in the night, all of that may already have been arranged, and Littlefinger's pleas to go along with King Joffrey for now - against Stannis - only to replace him with Renly later on, may have been an attempt to convince Ned to not challenge Cersei. Sure, he would not have been too unhappy about Ned's demise, but Littlefinger clearly would have acquired much more power much more quickly under Ned as Lord Regent then under Cersei or Tywin (just because of the fact Ned was already greatly relying on him). The thing that clearly was the tipping point for Littlefinger was Ned's insistence that Stannis must be king. Littlefinger practically told him that Stannis would give the Realm a new Hand, and a new council - one in which they both would no longer serve. Ned may have wanted to go home, but Littlefinger didn't. It may be as simple as that...

This is interesting to think about. It surely puts LF in a different light, imo. More grey and less black. But I don't think LF wants to control Sansa in that way. He's grooming her so he won't have to exert that type of emotional torture on her. His manipulations have been more subtle and this would be extremely overt but it could happen, I suppose.

Also, I have only now realized one of the biggest shifts: the draft states each house has a traitorous member of the other's family. Sansa is with the Lannisters and Tyrion is with the Starks. While Tyrion has not gone out of his way to support the Starks, has he betrayed them in the books? The act of burning Winterfell was given to Theon. Did Martin give Tyrion a pass here? It seems as though he has but it's still too early to know for sure what he will do when he returns to Westeros.

[Debra Morgan]

It did have "please feel free to share this letter with anyone who's interested in the outline of the story" or something like that in the end. But that invitation may have expired in the last 22 years, and he may have not been extremely happy about it, hence its deletion. (It may just have been embarrassing, too.)

I think it is important because if GRRM solved to publish this letters he wouldn't do this plot twists in actual story (love triangle with Ary, Jon and Tyrion and sth like that).

[chrisdaw]

The Starks have just become the Targs in Tyrion's arc of questionable loyalties. Jaime has become the fulcrum instead of what was probably Arya. Mad at Jaime = Targaryen loyalty, burn House Lannister. Back to being bros (like when Jaime reveals why he killed Aerys and Dany sentences him to death anyway) = back to Lannister loyalty, piss off out of our capital Dany.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

The Starks have just become the Targs in Tyrion's arc of questionable loyalties. Jaime has become the fulcrum instead of what was probably Arya. Mad at Jaime = Targaryen loyalty, burn House Lannister. Back to being bros (like when Jaime reveals why he killed Aerys and Dany sentences him to death anyway) = back to Lannister loyalty, piss off out of our capital Dany.

Ah. So Tyrion will betray the Targs. Yes, I could see it playing out this way. Eventually. But I think he'll be sympathetic to Dany in the beginning, similar to how he was with Aegon. He seemed to like him but recognized how easy it would be to manipulate him and eventually did. Dany was warned not to trust the white lion walking in the tall grass so that definitely could be foreshadowing of Tryion's eventual betrayal.

[Mithras]

BTW, there is not even any slightest clue about Tyrion being a bastard of Aerys or any other character. The only secret identity theory is R+L=J.

[Lost Melnibonean]

BTW, there is not even any slightest clue about Tyrion being a bastard of Aerys or any other character. The only secret identity theory is R+L=J.

There's also no hint at t he Blackfyre storyline. I wonder if that was the redacted paragraph. That was for the original A Dance with Dragons.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

Jon and Arya could still happen god help us. I don't think he has completely thrown that under a bus.

Tyrion and Arya probably went when he decided that Tyrion would be small and not a legitimate romantic threat to the grand hero Jon for the warrior princess' affections. As sad as that is, would Tyrion's smarts be enough to make him a compelling romantic foil?

The Northern bit of Tyrion's story seems to have gone to Ramsay, with his fake Arya. I wonder if originally this was the real Arya that Jon was trying to rescue from his rival?

The part where Jon turns Arya away because of his vows is mirrored by Gendry choosing to take the Brotherhood's vows where its made clear by Lem Lemoncloak he will be kissing no princesses. The Brotherhood is Gendry's Night's Watch.

Arya now travelled the Riverlands rather than the North where she became Meera Reed. I suspect Arya will be back to kick rear and take names, probably even Other names but we are in a holding pattern between her travelling and her fighting because the rest of the characters have not caught up yet. This was also probably why she went from 12-13 POV chapters to 5 over the last 2 books. Her story has become thin but she can't disappear like Rickon.

[Tynned Lannistark]

Sansa's betrayal is just that. Betrayal. She rats her own father to Cersei. I don't see how it can be interpreted differently.

She is also old enough to understand what she doing.

It doesn't make her an evil person. She doesn't mean to hurt anyone. But she thinks and behaves in a pretty self centered manner.

She diverges from the draft Sansa at 2 important points - one is , she doesn't have good motives to actually choose the Lannisters. Draft Sansa is married with a child. Book Sansa just has a childish desire to marry Joff and become queen. This is not strong enough motive.

Second point is that pretty quickly after that , the Lannisters betray her, by breaking their promise and killing her father making her support for them impossible from plot perspective. After these, the original plan of Sansa sticking with the Lannister becomes impossible.

I always thought that going to Cersei is little bit out of character for Sansa. Sansa is the good girl. The obedient one. She always does what her parents or her septa tells her to. Arya is the rebellious one. Sansa is also very passive, doing very little to change her situation. So this going to Cersei is so much against her character it made me wonder.

Also the part about Lady is problematic. Killing Lady is supposed to symbolize the detachment of Sansa from her Starkness. Which is something that doesn't actually happen.

But all this is very much aligned with the original draft. I suppose these are scenes GRRM liked (because they are good scenes) and were kept as part of the story even though the plans for Sansa changed.

[Maia]

The thing that clearly was the tipping point for Littlefinger was Ned's insistence that Stannis must be king. Littlefinger practically told him that Stannis would give the Realm a new Hand, and a new council - one in which they both would no longer serve. Ned may have wanted to go home, but Littlefinger didn't. It may be as simple as that...

Which proves that LF would have never supported Ned, Sansa or no. Stannis was the point of contention for him. What is more, _Slynt_ and his officers would have never helped Ned to enthrone Stannis, as the latter tried to investigate and punish their corruption, while still a member of the Small Council and would have undoubtedly dealt away with them once he became king.

Cersei may be largely a fool, but she did have some people spying for her and they'd have had to be deaf and blind not to notice preparations for the girls' departure. Lannister guards outnumbered the Starks guards 5:1 at this point, so they would have overwhelmed them anyway.

Look, I am not in principle opposed to Sansa's confidences to the queen playing a role in Ned's downfall, it is just that the way it is written that role couldn't have been anything but extremely minor and Cersei crediting her for the coup's success looks more like malicious slander than anything else. I never understood why GRRM insisted on Sansa being somewhat responsible , but now I see that his initial intent for her colors how he sees things. And really, all he needed to do to make it convincing was to change the things slightly. Like, Ned making a real attempt at secrecy re: the girls departure. Or if the girls had been supposed to leave before he confronted Cersei, but Sansa somehow prevented that. Etc.

Yeah, like Tywin would risk that. Tywin had only 1 male son and he would never risk Jamie's life. Not even if he still had Ned Stark alive.

You forget the Sack of KL, when Jaime was in the power of a maniac with proven murderous bent, who had nothing to lose and who had been itching to hurt Tywin for years.

So, yea, Tywin would absolutely risk Jaime's life, as he has done it before. And risk to Jaime would have been far less, because unlike during the Sack, after the RW Tywin would have had Tully hostages, who represent the only future that this House can have. Which would have been more than enough to protect Jaime.

Don't you remember what he says: The only thing that remains of you after you die is your name. He didn't like Tyrion and saw Jamie (even though he was a member of the KG) as his heir.

Nope, book Tywin never said that, nor was there any shortage of people capable of continuing Lannister name without Jaime, even discounting Tyrion. Yes, book Tywin loved Jaime and saw him as his heir. But he wasn't paralyzed by his capture. Tyrion, who loved Jaime very much, was prepared to risk his life in order to free him too, remember.

[Rippounet]

Three things stand out imho:

- We know who the 5 main characters were supposed to be: Tyrion, Dany, Jon, Arya and Bran. It is likely they still are. This does not bode well for Sansa or Theon, even if things have changed a lot.

- R+L = J is -again- kind of confirmed. It's clear that Jon Snow's "true parentage" means he's not Arya's brother.

- Dany was, and probably still is supposed to reach Westeros with dragon(s) and dothrakis.

I'm not sure there's much else to talk about.

[chrisdaw]

And really, all he needed to do to make it convincing was to change the things slightly.

Not really, everyone but staunch Sansa fans got it.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

Sansa's betrayal is just that. Betrayal. She rats her own father to Cersei. I don't see how it can be interpreted differently.

She is also old enough to understand what she doing.

It doesn't make her an evil person. She doesn't mean to hurt anyone. But she thinks and behaves in a pretty self centered manner.

She diverges from the draft Sansa at 2 important points - one is , she doesn't have good motives to actually choose the Lannisters. Draft Sansa is married with a child. Book Sansa just has a childish desire to marry Joff and become queen. This is not strong enough motive.

Second point is that pretty quickly after that , the Lannisters betray her, by breaking their promise and killing her father making her support for them impossible from plot perspective. After these, the original plan of Sansa sticking with the Lannister becomes impossible.

I always thought that going to Cersei is little bit out of character for Sansa. Sansa is the good girl. The obedient one. She always does what her parents or her septa tells her to. Arya is the rebellious one. Sansa is also very passive, doing very little to change her situation. So this going to Cersei is so much against her character it made me wonder.

Also the part about Lady is problematic. Killing Lady is supposed to symbolize the detachment of Sansa from her Starkness. Which is something that doesn't actually happen.

But all this is very much aligned with the original draft. I suppose these are scenes GRRM liked (because they are good scenes) and were kept as part of the story even though the plans for Sansa changed.

That is a misinterpretation. For example, she told Ned what happened with Mycah and then when she went in front of the King said she could not remember. Both Jon and Arya have the 'Don't Tell Sansa' mantra because she can't be trusted. Not what you expect of a good girl. Sansa wants approval from the grown ups and being 'good' gets her that. She'll tell tales if it gets her a pat on the head. She wants the Queen's approval and she wants Joffrey's approval. It makes her feel big and important. Sansa likes being above others, she revels in the idea of being a Queen, a loved Queen adored by the smallfolk who cheer her, she wishes her sister was a bastard so she could be safely beneath her, she discounts Jon in comparison to Joffrey because he's 'jealous he is a bastard' .

GRRM is challenging every one of these failures in her set up in GOT with the intention hopefully that she will become a better person.

[chrisdaw]

The set up is just to make her eventual sacrifice for her family and the greater good have all the more impact.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Sansa's betrayal is just that. Betrayal. She rats her own father to Cersei. I don't see how it can be interpreted differently.

She is also old enough to understand what she doing.

It doesn't make her an evil person. She doesn't mean to hurt anyone. But she thinks and behaves in a pretty self centered manner.

She diverges from the draft Sansa at 2 important points - one is , she doesn't have good motives to actually choose the Lannisters. Draft Sansa is married with a child. Book Sansa just has a childish desire to marry Joff and become queen. This is not strong enough motive.

Second point is that pretty quickly after that , the Lannisters betray her, by breaking their promise and killing her father making her support for them impossible from plot perspective. After these, the original plan of Sansa sticking with the Lannister becomes impossible.

I always thought that going to Cersei is little bit out of character for Sansa. Sansa is the good girl. The obedient one. She always does what her parents or her septa tells her to. Arya is the rebellious one. Sansa is also very passive, doing very little to change her situation. So this going to Cersei is so much against her character it made me wonder.

Also the part about Lady is problematic. Killing Lady is supposed to symbolize the detachment of Sansa from her Starkness. Which is something that doesn't actually happen.

But all this is very much aligned with the original draft. I suppose these are scenes GRRM liked (because they are good scenes) and were kept as part of the story even though the plans for Sansa changed.

But not the Littlefinger :)

[Consigliere]

I'm thinking about Jon succeeding Benjen as Lord Commander...

So that means Benjen was supposed to die in the original outline at least. Wonder if Martin decided to stick with that. I'd say this puts a damper on the "Benjen is alive" theories.

[Lord Varys]

I just double-checked AGoT, and Sansa betrays Ned after Ned has supposedly bought the City Watch with Littlefinger's help, but Cersei still credits Sansa for her success in ACoK. But since Sansa had no clue about Ned's plans involving the City Watch and Littlefinger, she could not have told Cersei about that. Thus Cersei either asked Littlefinger on her own to secure the City Watch for her - possibly before Ned had the same idea - and Littlefinger only decided that he would back the Lannisters when Ned insisted on his 'Stannis plan', or Littlefinger came to Cersei offering his help following his conversation with Ned. That is really hard to determine.

But Sansa was completely left in dark about the reasons for Ned's actions. Ned tried to tell her that Joff would not make a good husband, but that was all. She did not know that Robert was mortally wounded, that he would soon die, and that Cersei's children were not Robert's. I guess if she had known that, she would have rethought her affections for Joffrey as well as her actions... It is clear in her following chapter that she does not really understand what she has done, nor expected the outcome. And thus this is not a real conscious betrayal.

Mithras,

Tyrion and Jaime don't even have parents in the draft. Thus it is hardly surprising that his ancestry is not discussed. Note that Daenerys is supposed to hatch only one dragon rather than three - which means that back then, despite the fact that Jon was apparently already conceived as 'the true king' would not necessarily become a dragonrider. But the introduction of one hidden Targaryen in plain sight could also have led to the conception of another, especially since we got this whole 'three dragon heads' business as well a prophecies relating to it.

I think the Aegon story entered the whole conception with Varys and Illyrio. And they have been there since AGoT, although they were not part of that draft, they would have slipped into the concept during the writing and rewriting process. The way the Varys/Illyrio conversation is designed in AGoT it seems to be pretty obvious that George did know that they are not exactly totally backing Viserys and Dany - as it is never mentioned that they actually want to crown Viserys III. All they do want is a Dothraki invasion, and that's their smokescreen for the Aegon plan.

Maia,

the phrasing Cersei uses is that Sansa told Cersei 'all her father's plans'. Truly, the whole thing was decided when the Goldcloaks were Cersei's, but we don't really know yet when exactly that happened (although most likely when Ned did not take Littlefinger's offer). But the Red Cloaks and Cersei clearly had the advantage over Ned once they did not know what he had in mind for his daughters. Since we were not privy to Sansa's conversation with Cersei, we also don't know what she may have told her which helped her gain the upper hand. It is clear that Cersei hoped to force Ned to bow down Joffrey to prevent a war. She was prepared to go through with the coup, but had he backed down I think she would have allowed him to return to Winterfell.

[Mithras]

There's also no hint at t he Blackfyre storyline. I wonder if that was the redacted paragraph. That was for the original A Dance with Dragons.

According to the draft, Dany's main purpose seems like her Dothraki invasion would devastate the already damaged Realm before the Others make their move. I think the fAegon subplot will serve that purpose. Here is what Tristan Rivers say about the change of George's plans with respect to the Dothraki invasion and fAegon:

“Which plan?” said Tristan Rivers. “The fat man’s [George's] plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver’s Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

[Mithras]

Note that Daenerys is supposed to hatch only one dragon rather than three - which means that back then, despite the fact that Jon was apparently already conceived as 'the true king' would not necessarily become a dragonrider.

Unless Jon takes Drogon from Dany.