Why i think Stannis wrote the Pink Letter

[AdmiralKyrd]

I don't see Stannis pulling a Wildling army off of the Wall and removing their commander, especially after the battle of ice has concluded.

Stannis came there to save the realm. He can't do that if he upends the defense of the Wall. He tasked Jon to open all the forts on the Wall within a year. He can't possibly do that if he marches an army South to Winterfell and back. That will take four months in the snow. The Stannis we know woupd call that foolish and a waste of time and resources. Many Wildlings will die on the trek alone.

A lot of pink letter author theories look only account for a handfull of facts and often overlook all the intangibles.

[AerionBrightflameII]

Wasn't the whole point of taking Deepwood Motte and defeating Mance Rayder supposed to prove that he is still alive and fighting for his Throne?

What would he gain by declaring he got wasted outside Winterfell by a guttershite like Ramsey?

It was either Mance or Ramsey. I can't think of anybody who would have anything to gain by doing this.

The Wall is far removed from almost all events that go on in the realm, so the sender is most likely a character from the North with an agenda against Jon.

-Stannis unlikely, he wouldn't stand for somebody saying how he was smashed in battle his pride wouldn't allow it. Even if he did what would be his goal?

-Ramsey, could be it is signed from him. Hates bastards and he seems the type not to be satisfied with simply beating somebody he seems to enjoy utterly destroying everything they love. For example this is why he wants Mellisandre, Stannis wife and child and his insane obsession with his Reek.

-Mance, possibly.. he is a turncloak and an Oathbreaker. He has been at the wall and knows of Mel, Stannis wife and child and he also knows Wildings in force are finally across the wall. Which has always been his ambition

Does anybody find it strange how everybody in the letter has a Nickname?

Red Whore, Wilding Princess, False King, Black Crows etc...

[darkdude103]

dosent stannis think mance is dead though

[bemused]

Wasn't the whole point of taking Deepwood Motte and defeating Mance Rayder supposed to prove that he is still alive and fighting for his Throne?

What would he gain by declaring he got wasted outside Winterfell by a guttershite like Ramsey?

It was either Mance or Ramsey. I can't think of anybody who would have anything to gain by doing this.

The Wall is far removed from almost all events that go on in the realm, so the sender is most likely a character from the North with an agenda against Jon.

-Stannis unlikely, he wouldn't stand for somebody saying how he was smashed in battle his pride wouldn't allow it. Even if he did what would be his goal?

-Ramsey, could be it is signed from him. Hates bastards and he seems the type not to be satisfied with simply beating somebody he seems to enjoy utterly destroying everything they love. For example this is why he wants Mellisandre, Stannis wife and child and his insane obsession with his Reek.

-Mance, possibly.. he is a turncloak and an Oathbreaker. He has been at the wall and knows of Mel, Stannis wife and child and he also knows Wildings in force are finally across the wall. Which has always been his ambition

Does anybody find it strange how everybody in the letter has a Nickname?

Red Whore, Wilding Princess, False King, Black Crows etc...

Re: Stannis ... If you've read the Theon TWoW chapter it's pretty obvious Stannis plans to fake his death , probably in an attempt at a "Trojan horse" move on WF. Stannis is capable of much more subtlety and subterfuge than many readers give him credit for, IMO.

Re: Ramsay ... He hates to be called a bastard, himself. Other than that, he hasn't demonstrated a particular hate of bastards, in general.

Re: Mance ...He does not know wildlings are across the wall in force. He only knows of the wildlings Stannis let through , among which there were only 300 fighting men. he knows both Stannis and Jon wanted to let more through , but has no way of knowing if Jon has succeeded.

Re: Nicknames... And who is it that dispenses derogatory nicknames for practically everyone, as a matter of course?

Alliser Thorne.

Who is it that calls Jon "bastard" with such vehemence throughout the books?

Alliser Thorne.

Who has been influencing Marsh openly since Marsh returned from the Shadow tower ? ... and probably not so openly since book one?

Alliser Thorne. ... Remember how Marsh defended Thorne's use of "droll" nicknames for the men (which we know were actually hurtful, vindictive and incendiary).

Who, since the events of book one, has been looking for an excusable way to have Jon killed ?

We know the answer. Alliser Thorne.

There are a few ways that Thorne could have made his way back to Castle Black ( as promised / threatened ) and there are clues as to how he could be there, hiding in the wormways , with Bowen's help (the cell / hiding place Sam found in AFfC).

In ASoS, Jon muses on the best strategy to defend CB from an attack from the south. Both Stannis and Mance are strategic thinkers and would make the same assessment. They would want to warn Jon if Ramsay was coming after "Arya" .. For different reasons, neither one could write openly (as themselves). ...Stannis wants Jon at the Wall, not at WF..I believe Mance would feel the same, since he has a low opinion of Marsh, and his near and dear (not to mention the realms of men) would be at greater risk without Jon's leadership, as well.

I don't think either Ramsay or Roose would write a letter that would give Jon warning if Ramsay was actually on his way... and I think they would have been after "Arya" as soon as they knew she was gone. So I think the one very big truth in the letter is that Ramsay is coming... and the Bolton MO (father and son) has been to give no warning if they actually might attack.

[Yes, we know a letter was sent to Asha, and probably Dagmer as well .. but we also know that Roose had no intention of dealing with them at that time. If they were frightened into melting away in the meantime, it would mean no losses for him. If he had been ready to attack , we can be pretty sure he would not have signaled them beforehand.]

The way the puzzle of the letter works best, is if someone (either Stannis or Mance , but I lean to Stannis) writes to warn and inform Jon, but the letter is intercepted by the conspirators and recopied, adding in details to suit their wishes (Thorne supplying the language).

ETA: darkdude .. I think it's only logical that Stannis knows Mance is alive. We know he agreed with Jon that Mance's knowledge and experience would be useful .. and Mel never actually says he doesn't know... she just slides by the question.

[ToTheWolves]

I'll say this till I'm blue in the face, but if Stannis or anyone wanted to provoke Jon to go south, then they would've written, "Bastard, I have your sister and I'll flay her and rape her", not "I want my bride back" because it means Ramsay no longer has her, thus diminishing the threat

I also agree with what's been mentioned upthread about risking Shireen, Mel, etc. Yeah, Jon was alive but that point, but why was he stabbed in the first place? Because of the pink letter. If Stannis wrote it backfired incredibly

This

[fassreiter]

Seriously though, general forum, if Ramsey defeated Stannis and sent the letter to Jon, why would Ramsey think that Jon had "his Reek?

The pink/bastard letter is an obsession <jokingly so> of mine. To me it seems that no matter how I spin it there is still that question about Reek.

Sorry, bit late replying, but as to why Ramsay would assume that Jon had "Reek": Regardless of Stannis being defeated or not (pretty sure Ramsay is lying or was betrayed in this regard), Ramsay would assume that Theon and fArya were headed for Castle Black because this is what the "washerwomen" told fArya and (probably) what they told Ramsay after being captured. At least, this was the plan. Or is there something I am missing here?

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

It was Roose .

[Tagganaro]

I've been going back and forth for a while on this- I've always been torn between Ramsay and Mance (either alone or working together) as far as the language/tone of the letter is concerned. Obviously some of the language is straight Ramsay (Reek, my bride, bastard, etc.) but the way it seems designed to successfully get under Jon's skin is all Mance.

Lately though I have been leaning more towards a SUPER DUPER CONSPIRACY at the Wall and among the Night's Watch men who don't get along with Jon. That is, after all, a major theme throughout ADWD, and the way Jon is sort of manipulated into doing exactly what it is Lord Pomegranate feared he would do from the start doesn't escape notice. I can't imagine Marsh is really involved in any conspiracy, seems more like he was a pawn who was incited to attack Jon.

What also stands out to me throughout it all is Ghost, and his particularly violent reaction to Mully. We've seen direwolves be a bit prophetic in terms of sniffing out Stark enemies, i.e. Grey Wolf with the Freys, so i have to wonder what Ghost is reacting to that the seemingly harmless Mully could have done. Letter tampering could have something to do with it I guess.

[bemused]

fassreiter... I don't recall the spearwives mentioning Castle Black. Did they ? They did say they had to reach Stannis before the men Roose was sending out.

From the ADWD Theon chapter, we have first Mance..

“Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him.”

Abel’s fingers danced across the strings of his lute. The singer’s beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey. “If the Bastard does come after us, he might live long enough to rue it.”

And then Rowan ...

“The snow will hide us. Are you deaf? Bolton is sending forth his swords. We have to reach King

Stannis before they do.”

Of course we know the ultimate object was to get "Arya" to Jon. But I feel the plot will require the Boltons to have the Stannis info.

I suppose that's because I think the one thing that is most true in the pink letter is the implication that Ramsay will be on his way to CB.

We've seen the first TWoW Theon chapter, and I project that we'll get one covering events at the tree and a resulting change in plan (probably sending Theon as well?).

If Ramsay left for CB from WF, he would have a much better chance of intercepting "Arya", since she and Theon had to go some distance west to reach Stannis before angling back north and a bit east, whereas it would be pretty much straight north from WF for Ramsay.

So my bet is that Ramsay will be putting in an appearance at the battle scene, be somehow convinced that Stannis is dead, and then follow on her trail.

[Clegane'sPup]

For me who wrote that letter will be a thorne in my side until WOW is released. Let us back up a minute. Let's say the letter is a fabrication from whomever. If Ramsey or Roose wrote it he is saying that Stannis has been defeated. Agree or disagree?

If Ramsey defeated Stannis why did he not find his wife? Well because Stannis had sent her to the wall with the Banker, Massey and NW guides before Ramsey arrived.

As for Theon/Reek, last I read he was still chained to the wall in the tower Stannis claimed as home base. If Ramsey wrote the letter, if Ramsey and troops defeated Stannis why did Ramsey not find his Reek at the crofter's village? Where did Theon go? The last that I read Theon/Reek was still attached to the wall in Stannis' chambers.

As an aside, Rowan did tell fArya they have come to take her to her half brother - Lord Crow he is (p683)

[kimim]

For me who wrote that letter will be a thorne in my side until WOW is released. Let us back up a minute. Let's say the letter is a fabrication from whomever. If Ramsey or Roose wrote it he is saying that Stannis has been defeated. Agree or disagree?

If Ramsey defeated Stannis why did he not find his wife? Well because Stannis had sent her to the wall with the Banker, Massey and NW guides before Ramsey arrived.

As for Theon/Reek, last I read he was still chained to the wall in the tower Stannis claimed as home base. If Ramsey wrote the letter, if Ramsey and troops defeated Stannis why did Ramsey not find his Reek at the crofter's village? Where did Theon go? The last that I read Theon/Reek was still attached to the wall in Stannis' chambers.

As an aside, Rowan did tell fArya they have come to take her to her half brother - Lord Crow he is (p683)

Ramsey could have been burnt and his ashes scattered. He could have gotten free himself, or been released by his sister, and the two of them could be on their way, somewhere. Any number of reasons why Ramsay couldn't be reunited with his Reek.

[bemused]

1. For me who wrote that letter will be a thorne in my side until WOW is released. Let us back up a minute. Let's say the letter is a fabrication from whomever. If Ramsey or Roose wrote it he is saying that Stannis has been defeated. Agree or disagree?

2. If Ramsey defeated Stannis why did he not find his wife? Well because Stannis had sent her to the wall with the Banker, Massey and NW guides before Ramsey arrived.

3. As for Theon/Reek, last I read he was still chained to the wall in the tower Stannis claimed as home base. If Ramsey wrote the letter, if Ramsey and troops defeated Stannis why did Ramsey not find his Reek at the crofter's village? Where did Theon go? The last that I read Theon/Reek was still attached to the wall in Stannis' chambers.

4. As an aside, Rowan did tell fArya they have come to take her to her half brother - Lord Crow he is (p683)

(I've inserted numbers in your post )

1. I agree that this would be the case.

2 & 3. I agree again , except... I don't think the party could have got away before Stannis speaks to Asha , and potentially the northmen... Massey had to inform Alysanne, sort out his own gear, choose 6 men and 12 horses and collect Jeyne and Tycho. We know these conversations were all taking place early, because Stannis "invited" the Karstarks to take breakfast with him. He had told Massey to be away by mid-day. If Stannis takes Theon to the tree (which is where I assume this is all going) Massey's party might well still be in preparation. Or Stannis could have ordered them to wait until the outcome of the excursion could be reported to Jon by the NW guides. ...Theon could easily be with them.

4. Yep. I remember Rowan saying that now.. That would be the logical conclusion (eventually) anyway.... But with Stannis and his army right there, and the escapees so vulnerable on their own, I think it would be predictable that they'd go to him for help first. We've been told that spearwives have been known to bite out their tongues before talking. Holly is dead, and Frenya might be killed (or kill herself) before being taken. And I don't think Mance and the rest would have left themselves without a plan.

I have ideas as to what some of those plans might entail, but I might have already mentioned them upthread..(I'll check).

Ramsey could have been burnt and his ashes scattered. He could have gotten free himself, or been released by his sister, and the two of them could be on their way, somewhere. Any number of reasons why Ramsay couldn't be reunited with his Reek.

I assume you mean Theon , but I think this is highly unlikely, since the northmen would probably object. I expect they would want Theon to face northern justice. As to escaping with Asha... Asha is having a hard time with her sprained / broken ankle. There is a shortage of horses to escape on, and ahorse or afoot, I think they would easily be tracked by any of the northmen. .. So I think Stannis will send Theon north.

[Greymoon]

IMO, Mance wrote the letter, on the orders of Melisandre, on behalf of Stannis... the tone is definitely Mance, but Mance alone lacks a proper motivation...there is personal vengeance, sure, but why go through such a complicated plot if he only wanted vengeance? imo, it was Melisandre who came up with the idea. She hoped to force Jon's hand, to have him join Stannis...and she hope to gain his trust, by 'predicting' the arrival of the letter.

"All your questions shall be answered. Look to the skies, Lord Snow. And when you have your answers, send to me. Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope."

Before that, Melisandre was adamantly trying to persuade Jon to abandon his project of ranging north, toward Hardhome. Did she truly see that it was doomed, or was she trying to keep Jon at the wall, eventually, to have him ride south to help her King?

As for Stannis, it is clear from the Theon chapter that he knew the rumor of his death would be put out there at some point, so he was somewhat involved in it -- yet, I doubt he knew any of the details of the letter...imo, Melisandre convinced him that spreading rumors about his death was the only way to have Jon Snow break away from the watch. Stannis probably wasn't told the details of how the rumor would emerge, though, or most likely, didn't want to known.

Melisandre arranged for Mance to leave the wall...why? Why reveal Mance and offer Jon a way to save Arya? imo, because the rumor needed to be spread from outside of castle black to be credible. She told Mance what to write and in exchange, promised him his son, and Val. Mance obeyed her, and because of his personal feelings toward Jon, got carried away when writing the letter...in the end, Mel's plan backfired. She had expected to be able to speak with Jon after he received the letter. She told him to seek her out. But Jon didn't. Instead, he confided in Tormund Giantsbane.

[Clegane'sPup]

It is not stated in the books that Ramsey rode out. Theon says that Ramsey is coming.

Here we come the the gate stuff that I am not willing to research. Roose announces that Stannis is 3 days ride from WF. Frey is to gather at the main gate and to go strike the first blow. Manderly's troops are to ride out the east gate.

Yet in Theon's gift/preview chapter we get this:

Mors Umber had grunted. "Aye." What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up, clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell's main gate was rising. And how Crowfood had grinned at that.

Since I am unwilling to look into the gate stuff, where is the portcullis at WF at the main gate? To add insult to injury Stannis is 3 days ride from WF, yet a boy clutching a spear is announcing that this portcullis, a strong, heavy grating sliding up and down in vertical grooves, lowered to block a gateway to a fortress or town.

[Hodor_For_King]

I have not read ADwD for some time, so forgive any inaccuracy on my part, but the letter is definitely my favorite mystery from the book.

IMHO the content of the letter lets us know that only a few people could have written it. But, there are only two people who could have written it (or had a hand in writing it) that knew Jon well enough to know how exactly to piss him off, Mance and Theon. With how easy it is for Mance and his spearwives to enter/leave WF, there is no real reason why they couldnt have regular contact with Stannis.

As far as the letter being out of Stannis' character, I would disagree. Stannis has a penchant for using unlikely allies to his advantage. There is no real reason why he wouldnt listen to Theon or even ask Theon for help with trying to goad Jon to WF. Stannis knows that Theon and Jon grew up together, so Theon likely knows Jon better than anyone else in Stannis' camp.

These are just some random thoughts I have that I hadn't really seen put forward in the thread. I really don't have any guess as to who wrote the actual letter, there is very strong evidence to support any number of candidates.

[SFDanny]

It is not stated in the books that Ramsey rode out. Theon says that Ramsey is coming.

Here we come the the gate stuff that I am not willing to research. Roose announces that Stannis is 3 days ride from WF. Frey is to gather at the main gate and to go strike the first blow. Manderly's troops are to ride out the east gate.

Yet in Theon's gift/preview chapter we get this:

Sorry, to be picky, but not everyone wants to read the spoiler chapters. It's best to put spoiler tags around such things so they won't appear to all readers of the general threads.

[bemused]

It is not stated in the books that Ramsey rode out. Theon says that Ramsey is coming.

Here we come the the gate stuff that I am not willing to research. Roose announces that Stannis is 3 days ride from WF. Frey is to gather at the main gate and to go strike the first blow. Manderly's troops are to ride out the east gate.

Yet in Theon's gift/preview chapter we get this:

Mors Umber had grunted. "Aye." What he might have said or done next Theon never learned, for that was when the boy ran up, clutching a spear and shouting that the portcullis on Winterfell's main gate was rising. And how Crowfood had grinned at that.

Since I am unwilling to look into the gate stuff, where is the portcullis at WF at the main gate? To add insult to injury Stannis is 3 days ride from WF, yet a boy clutching a spear is announcing that this portcullis, a strong, heavy grating sliding up and down in vertical grooves, lowered to block a gateway to a fortress or town.

I don't understand your concern, exactly...

First, the business with the East Gate and the Main Gate is deceptive. The Main gate is situated on the outside wall . The "East" gate is situated right behind it on the inside wall according to the plan of WF on the wiki.. So, the Manderly men cannot ride out until the Freys have ridden out.

Is there some reason you think there could / should not be a portcullis at the Main gate ? We've been told that Roose had WF sealed up tight. Roose has only had a few scouts going out using the hunter's gate. There could still be a gate behind it at the Main gate, couldn't there ? ...and there is a another gate at the inner, higher wall.

[Clegane'sPup]

Theon chapter has been available for since 2011

SFDany, would you tell me what material is considered a spoiler so that I can be courteous to others? Thanks.

Bemused, I don't know why the gate business confuses me but it does. Thanks for your thoughts.

From what I read in ADWD it is not mentioned that Roose sent Ramsey out only that Roose sent Freys to the main gate (East?) and Manderlys to the East gate. No mention of sending Ramsey out.

Spoiler

Theon is the one that tells Stannis that Ramsey is coming.

Notice the Umber quote:

he had been questioning Jeyne and the a boy ran up, clutching a spear saying that the gate was being raised. And how Umber grinned at that.

Stannis is suppose to be ?? three miles from WF. The crofters village is suppose to be west of WF. Enough of that, this doesn't have anything to do with the OP.

I practiced doing spoilers though.

[sifth]

The "Crow" line is a pretty big give away that it's Mance. Never in the series does a character South of The Wall ever call a member of the Night's Watch a crow. At least I can't remember any.

[JoeMama]

I'm absolutely convinced the pink letter was authored by "Abel" aka Mance Rayder.

First, Mance alone would have the most working knowledge of the contents of the letter.

Second, the letter is structured as a song/poem in seven verses of five lines. It's well known Mance is a talented singer and the use of poetry in the letter is a dead give-away that he had a hand in writing it.

Third, the letter makes references to the Night's Watch as "crows", which is a term only used by the wildings. Neither Stannis, Theon, nor Ramsey would have chosen that word.

Fourth, and this one may be a stretch, but I think GRRM's decision to use "Abel" as Mance's alias in Winterfell is more than just an anagram for "Bael" the Bard. Abel was a shepherd in the Bible. Right now "Abel" aka Mance is a shepherd without his flock.

I believe the purpose of this letter is to incite Jon Snow and lure his surviving "flock" of wildings to join him south of the wall and once again reunite them under his leadership.