Why would Lord Stannis claim the crown?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

No, there's no mistake in the title. Here's a curious exchange from AGOT:

“Ser Edmure told me. I am sorry, Mother … for Lord Hoster and for you. Yet first we must meet. We’ve had word from the south. Renly Baratheon has claimed his brother’s crown.”
“Renly?” she said, shocked.
“I had thought, surely it would be Lord Stannis …”
“So did we all, my lady,” Galbart Glover said.

Notice the circumstances. By then, Stannis had yet to publicly denounce his fake nephew (he'll do that in ACOK, after Renly's crowning). Twincest was still a secret, known to few. By all laws of gods and men, Joffrey, as Robert's firstborn son, was his heir. Nevertheless, Cat thought, and Galbart Glover, and reportedly everyone else thought that Stannis was about to claim his brother's crown.

Why?

[Connor Stone]

Well, Stannis is the first in line, so the exchange might mean "if one was going to try to sieze the throne, it would have been Stannis". Also, Stannis had left kings landing and had been amassing forces at Dragonstone while Renly was in Kings Landing, and maybe people knew this and figured that Stannis might revolt.

[Bael's Bastard]

There was already talk about Stannis gathering swords at Dragonstone quite a while before Robert even died. He left right when Robert went North to bring Ned back, leaving his council seat and as master of ships, and cutting off contact with KL that entire stretch. Perhaps some suspected he would rebel?

[Bronn Urgandy]

Its strange isn't it, you'd have thought that people would expect Stannis to be Joffreys right hand man, as he was Roberts. I suppose maybe they thought, what with Joffrey essentially signing his own death warrant and proving unfit to rule by pissing people off, that Stannis would see the opening and go for it.

[Bronn Urgandy]

Its strange isn't it, you'd have thought that people would expect Stannis to be Joffreys right hand man, as he was Roberts. I suppose maybe they thought, what with Joffrey essentially signing his own death warrant and proving unfit to rule by pissing people off, that Stannis would see the opening and go for it.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

There was already talk about Stannis gathering swords at Dragonstone quite a while before Robert even died. He left right when Robert went North to bring Ned back, leaving his council seat and as master of ships, and cutting off contact with KL that entire stretch. Perhaps some suspected he would rebel?

Not only "some". Apparently, according to Cat and Galbart, pretty much everyone had. And that's what made me curious.

Pressing for the Iron Throne was hardly the only explanation of Stannis' actions: leaving the capital, gathering swords and ships. Those could've been purely (or mainly) defensive moves. To prevent Cersei from even thinking "let's take Dragonstone away from Stannis, he won't put up a fight", for example. Or not even something that specific. Shit was about to hit the fan, one bucket after another, and in those circumstances amassing some additional swords and sails would seem a perfectly reasonable policy, regardless of one's political sympathies and ambitions. Before marching south, Ned had instructed Cat to keep a watchful eye on Theon Greyjoy, because of Balon's ships, which might (just might) be needed in the future. That was just prudence, not some specifically formed plan.

Nevertheless, Cat apparently assumed that Stannis "surely" was going to go after the throne. Which would, in eyes of everyone not in the know about the twincest, be an usurpation. So? Was that like Bronn said above, that Joffrey proved himself unfollowable? (But in such a case, there's still at least Tommen between Stannis and the crown). Or was that because a clusterfuck was simply expected after king's death, maybe aggravated by the fact that the royal dynasty was brand new, and default succession order isn't, after all, that sacred even in theory?

Dunno.

[Trigger Warning]

They may just be saying it in regards to Renly, as in if they expected any Baratheon to oppose the Lannister faction by crowning themself they'd presume it would be Stannis.

[OmnomnomPomelo]

Coz Stannis is older than Renly I guess.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

They're surprised by Renly's claiming the throne because he has no current claim to it. Assuming that Joff, Tommen and Myrcella are not Robert's kids, Renly is third in line. Stannis is first.

The twincest may not be widely known at this point but...Ned's arrest was known, which means his treason would be known as well. Those who knew Ned know that he wouldn't lie. Thus, anyone who knows about the arrest knows that the throne by rights goes to Stannis, and anyone who knows Stannis knows that he is not the kind to sit back and watch his family name be besmirched by an abomination like Joffrey (and really, even if he had been Robert's son, Joff was still an abomination).

[Victor227]

They're surprised by Renly's claiming the throne because he has no current claim to it. Assuming that Joff, Tommen and Myrcella are not Robert's kids, Renly is third in line. Stannis is first.

The twincest may not be widely known at this point but...Ned's arrest was known, which means his treason would be known as well. Those who knew Ned know that he wouldn't lie. Thus, anyone who knows about the arrest knows that the throne by rights goes to Stannis, and anyone who knows Stannis knows that he is not the kind to sit back and watch his family name be besmirched by an abomination like Joffrey (and really, even if he had been Robert's son, Joff was still an abomination).

Yet that doesn't make sense either. Catelyn and everyone else don't even consider the possibility of Joffrey being illegitimate prior to Stannis' letter. When she finds out about it it clicks for her, but not before. When thinking about retribution for Ned, Catelyn doesn't even think of Joffrey, she thinks of Cersei, linking the whole thing to the 'the Lannisters killed Jon Arryn' frame of mind.

It's a seriously good question. Why did anyone think Stannis was going to rebel? It doesn't make any sense from a guy like him. In fact, to those not in the 'inner circle' of King's Landing, Stannis shouldn't even appear to have any antagonism in him. He got Dragonstone, which is an incredibly rich prize for a second son, something he would have no right to ever expect.

[Minsc]

The twincest may not be widely known at this point but...Ned's arrest was known, which means his treason would be known as well. Those who knew Ned know that he wouldn't lie. Thus, anyone who knows about the arrest knows that the throne by rights goes to Stannis, and anyone who knows Stannis knows that he is not the kind to sit back and watch his family name be besmirched by an abomination like Joffrey (and really, even if he had been Robert's son, Joff was still an abomination).

The Lannisters framed Ned's arrest as being in reaction to him trying to seize the throne for himself thus his support for Stannis wouldn't be public.

[Nyrhex]

The Lannisters framed Ned's arrest as being in reaction to him trying to seize the throne for himself thus his support for Stannis wouldn't be public.

No," Sansa blurted. "He wouldn't do that. He wouldn't!" The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father's, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. "We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband's brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown."

Cersei then has Sansa write to her family to explain things. As far as Robb knows, the Lannisters blamed his father for plotting to depose Joffrey and crowning Stannis. It's quite amusing that on one hand he refuses to believe it, going so far as to defy the crown, raise an army and march on King's Landing to get his father back, while still be surprised that the man the Lannisters say plotted with his father did not actually crown himself and rushed to aid him with an army...

[Arrow of the Morning]

If a king or lord dies without legitimate cildren the eldest brother after him is the heir.

[Minsc]

No," Sansa blurted. "He wouldn't do that. He wouldn't!" The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father's, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. "We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband's brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown."

Cersei then has Sansa write to her family to explain things. As far as Robb knows, the Lannisters blamed his father for plotting to depose Joffrey and crowning Stannis. It's quite amusing that on one hand he refuses to believe it, going so far as to defy the crown, raise an army and march on King's Landing to get his father back, while still be surprised that the man the Lannisters say plotted with his father did not actually crown himself and rushed to aid him with an army...

Well, in the scene right before Joffrey cuts off his head they have Ned declare "I betrayed the faith of my king and the trust of my friend, Robert. I swore to protect and defend his children, but before his blood was cold, I plotted to murder his son and seize the throne for myself." thus causing the confusion.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

No," Sansa blurted. "He wouldn't do that. He wouldn't!" The queen picked up a letter. The paper was torn and stiff with dried blood, but the broken seal was her father's, the direwolf stamped in pale wax. "We found this on the captain of your household guard, Sansa. It is a letter to my late husband's brother Stannis, inviting him to take the crown."

Cersei then has Sansa write to her family to explain things. As far as Robb knows, the Lannisters blamed his father for plotting to depose Joffrey and crowning Stannis. It's quite amusing that on one hand he refuses to believe it, going so far as to defy the crown, raise an army and march on King's Landing to get his father back, while still be surprised that the man the Lannisters say plotted with his father did not actually crown himself and rushed to aid him with an army...

What's known in King's Landing, at least inner circles, and what's known in the wide world, are two different things. Several people were present in the throne room, when Ned deposed Joffrey (the Small Council, the Kingsguard, quite a few gold cloaks, etc.), but the version for the general public was different:

Her father raised his voice still higher, straining to be heard. “I betrayed the faith of my king and the trust of my friend, Robert,” he shouted. “I swore to defend and protect his children, yet before his blood was cold, I plotted to depose and murder his son and seize the throne for myself. Let the High Septon and Baelor the Beloved and the Seven bear witness to the truth of what I say: Joffrey Baratheon is the one true heir to the Iron Throne, and by the grace of all the gods, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm.”

And it looks like that's the one that got out. Now the northmen would not believe that bullshit. Nobody, who knew the Ned, did. But spotting the BS was the easy part, the hard part would've been figuring out the truth obscured by it.

I'm pretty sure that at that point, nobody in Robb's camp knew of Ned supporting Stannis. For one simple reason: had they known, it would've came up during Robb's war council. The Stannis option would have been given much more consideration, maybe even been the winning one.

[John Suburbs]

Stannis was also the one stirring up all the incest talk while he was living in the capital, leading Jon Arryn around to all of Robert's by-blows just to prove his point.

So people in the know -- LF, Varys, Cersei, etc. -- knew he was angling for the crown long before Robert died.

And nearly everyone knows that Stannis was not happy with Dragonstone. It's a dreary place out on a rock in Blackwater Bay. Storm's End is the Baratheon ancestral castle and is by far the most formidable castle in the realm. By custom it should have gone to Stannis once Robert put on the crown, especially since it was Stannis who held it against Mace Tyrell. But Robert gave it to Renly just for spite.

[devilrob6]

He wasn't angling for the crown before Robert died. He wanted to convince Robert that the children weren't his. To let him know he was being deceived. Only he wasn't the right person to tell Robert because of their bad relationship and because it would seem self serving (as he tellsl Catelyn). That's why he had Jon Arryn investigate the matter. He wasn't stirring up talk at that point. Obviously Varys , Littlefinger and the Lannisters were spying them. So it was known at court what they were doing. Varys and LF probably knew about the incest before Stannis did. Varys suggests to Ned that someone whispered to Stannis about the incest and that it wasn't him (so it was probably LF).

If Robert could have been convinced he could have disposed Cersei and the kids. Robert was young enough to marry again and have heirs. Also Stannis knew of Renly's plotting to replace Cersei with Margaery. There was no reason for Stannis to think he was going to be king at that point.

Even after Robert's death he doesnt immediately crown himself. I always felt that he preferred waited with crowning himself because he wanted to get King's Landing first. But after Renly and Robb crowning themselves and after the Stormlands refused him, i don't think he had much of a choice to do the same.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

True that the twincest wasn't known before Ned's death but...if he was accused of plotting to take the throne, there had to be some basis for that and Ned wouldn't seize power if he thought Joffrey was the rightful king. Those who knew Ned would have known that he thought there was a good reason none of "Robert's" kids could take the throne. The only reason for that would be if the kids aren't Robert's after all. That means the throne belongs to Stannis. And it doesn't take a genius to go so far as if Ned thought something was off then Stannis (who left the court and started massing troops) knows it too.

Catelyn having it in for Cersei and not Joff makes perfect sense because she would blame the grown up for the beheading, not the kid. Remember she didn't get to know Joffrey well, so she probably doesn't fully grasp what a little jerk he is.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

True that the twincest wasn't known before Ned's death but...if he was accused of plotting to take the throne, there had to be some basis for that and Ned wouldn't seize power if he thought Joffrey was the rightful king. Those who knew Ned would have known that he thought there was a good reason none of "Robert's" kids could take the throne. The only reason for that would be if the kids aren't Robert's after all. That means the throne belongs to Stannis. And it doesn't take a genius to go so far as if Ned thought something was off then Stannis (who left the court and started massing troops) knows it too.

Seems like jumping to a conclusion we already know. But what if, say, Ned's real "plot" had nothing to do with the princes' legitimacy? Maybe King Robert hadn't had a boaring accident, but had been actually murdered, and Ned was about to move in on his killers? Or discovered grand treason of some other sort. That's just one possible scenario.

But "Joffrey's illegitimate, Stannis is next in line" is an interpretation that nobody in the Robb's camp seemed to think of, or if they did, they at least didn't say it aloud. During Robb's famous war council, nobody questioned Joffrey's right to the throne. "Joffrey is still Robert’s eldest trueborn son, so the throne is rightfully his by all the laws of the realm. Were he to die, and I mean to see that he does, he has a younger brother. Tommen is next in line after Joffrey", said Robb, and nobody even suggested that it might not be the case.

So that's where we are: they all thought Joffrey to be Robert's legitimate son and rightful heir, yet they all were surprised that Stannis did not rebel.

[Buried Treasure]

I think by then all the notices to either attend KL and swear fealty to Joff or be declared traitor had been sent out by the Small Council. So the Stark camp (knowing that anybody actually attending KL was liable to be thrown in a dungeon) might have thought Stannis was being forced into a position of being attainted despite originally committing no crime. Which is broadly the same situation that Robert was in and they know Stannis supported him in that. At least, that's the best explanation I can think of for why they would think Stannis would crown himself when they believed his brothers children were the lawful heirs.