I'm Going to Break the Wheel

[Alayne's Shadow.]

Yeah, if I recall correctly the Schlieffen Plan was stopped at the Marne because Sansa was married off to General von Kluck.

And again, to much celebration, Sansa was again the turning point in WW2's Stalingrad. Honestly, I don't understand why people even try without The Sansa.

[Hodor's Dragon]

While thinking about Dany's "breaking the wheel speech" something occurred to me about Tyrion's political advice. Mainly that it was probably stupid. Tyrion asserts that no noble houses will back Dany. But, really, why should this be so? It's true that the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North have some legitimate grievances against House Targaryen. But, it's also true that those regions have some real grievances against the current Lannister/Tyrell regime.

If Dany were to approach those regions and acknowledge the failures of her father's rule and was willing to make some assurances to guard against any future Aerys, it is not clear to me why it would be absolutely impossible for her to win those regions over. Furthermore, Dany in her negotiations with those regions might be able to get the lords there to make some concessions that might help the small folk.

So why did Tyrion give such premature and perhaps very stupid advice to Dany? Is it because according to D & D Dany is a queen and not a "politician". If that is D & D's take then it is my view extremely dumb. Just for instance, you might think that LBJ was a scoundrel, but he did get some very important pieces of legislation through like the 1964 and 1965 Civil Rights Bills and Medicare in large part because he was a fantastic politician.

I'm not really getting St. Tyrion's advice here. Seems a bit dumb. And please, keep this post on the downlow as I don't want to be married off to the Boltons.

Certainly, she should at least try to forge alliances, and I'm with you, I see no reason to assume she will fail. Things aren't going so well in Westeros, and she is somebody new: that's certainly enough to work in an American election!

Plus she has personal charisma and a good history of successful negotiations. I really would expect her to draw in a few minor houses at the minimum, maybe a lot better than that. Of course, people have mentioned the Martells and Greyjoys as potential allies, which they are, but they aren't all. Varys can help in lots of ways, and at least in the show, Tyrion should be able to put her in touch with Varys. What would Littlefinger think? Tyrion probably can't help much there, but what would Littlefinger think with a dragon flying overhead? How about the Tyrells, who, despite Cersei's paranoia, seem more into the idea of latching on to the biggest power than of becoming the biggest power themselves?

Lannisters and Boltons I think I'd steer clear of, and furthermore I believe Tyrion would advise the same.

And then there are the Starks. How could we imagine Dany contacting the Starks (or vice versa)? Perhaps Arya will be tasked to kill her - and decide not to? Or perhaps Tyrion will put her in touch with Jon (with whom he had a good relationship)?

There are a lot of possibilities. She should definitely at least give diplomacy a shot.

Oh, and D&D do have a dumb take on Dany. So far as I can tell, she is just a Badass Good Queen: undoubtedly why she is now in white all the time. All the self-questioning and teenaged emotional rollercoasters from the books have vamoosed.

[Hodor's Dragon]

Repost, please ignore.

[Hodor's Dragon]

3 times???? Really don't know how that happened.

[ErasmusF]

You know Euron has apparently been cast for Season Six. Or EurVictarion or something. Here's the casting description:

I do but it doesn't give me any reason to think Dany will succeed. Some pirate shows up to save her bacon? Just more evidence that she sucks as a leader. Jon is up North making lemonade out of pisswater and she's in Merreen screwing stuff up.

[ErasmusF]

Certainly, she should at least try to forge alliances, and I'm with you, I see no reason to assume she will fail. Things aren't going so well in Westeros, and she is somebody new: that's certainly enough to work in an American election!

Plus she has personal charisma and a good history of successful negotiations. I really would expect her to draw in a few minor houses at the minimum, maybe a lot better than that. Of course, people have mentioned the Martells and Greyjoys as potential allies, which they are, but they aren't all. Varys can help in lots of ways, and at least in the show, Tyrion should be able to put her in touch with Varys. What would Littlefinger think? Tyrion probably can't help much there, but what would Littlefinger think with a dragon flying overhead? How about the Tyrells, who, despite Cersei's paranoia, seem more into the idea of latching on to the biggest power than of becoming the biggest power themselves?

Lannisters and Boltons I think I'd steer clear of, and furthermore I believe Tyrion would advise the same.

And then there are the Starks. How could we imagine Dany contacting the Starks (or vice versa)? Perhaps Arya will be tasked to kill her - and decide not to? Or perhaps Tyrion will put her in touch with Jon (with whom he had a good relationship)?

There are a lot of possibilities. She should definitely at least give diplomacy a shot.

Oh, and D&D do have a dumb take on Dany. So far as I can tell, she is just a Badass Good Queen: undoubtedly why she is now in white all the time. All the self-questioning and teenaged emotional rollercoasters from the books have vamoosed.

Call me crazy but that would both redeem her character and be a pretty entertaining episode. They could even do a montage where she holds up a card with house sigils and Tyrion exes them out. How cute!

[Stannistician]

While thinking about Dany's "breaking the wheel speech" something occurred to me about Tyrion's political advice. Mainly that it was probably stupid. Tyrion asserts that no noble houses will back Dany. But, really, why should this be so? It's true that the Vale, the Riverlands, and the North have some legitimate grievances against House Targaryen. But, it's also true that those regions have some real grievances against the current Lannister/Tyrell regime.

If Dany were to approach those regions and acknowledge the failures of her father's rule and was willing to make some assurances to guard against any future Aerys, it is not clear to me why it would be absolutely impossible for her to win those regions over. Furthermore, Dany in her negotiations with those regions might be able to get the lords there to make some concessions that might help the small folk.

So why did Tyrion give such premature and perhaps very stupid advice to Dany? Is it because according to D & D Dany is a queen and not a "politician". If that is D & D's take then it is my view extremely dumb. Just for instance, you might think that LBJ was a scoundrel, but he did get some very important pieces of legislation through like the 1964 and 1965 Civil Rights Bills and Medicare in large part because he was a fantastic politician.

I'm not really getting St. Tyrion's advice here. Seems a bit dumb. And please, keep this post on the downlow as I don't want to be married off to the Boltons.

As others have mentioned, Tyrion failed to mention the Martells, the Greyjoys (who knows what the hell they would do in show universe), and some of the smaller houses in the stormlands and reach. I think his advice was flawed in this regard.

As far as the regions you mentioned go, I think Tyrion's advice was sound:

In the Riverlands the Tullys are almost a non-entity at this point, and the Freys are the real power in the region now, and have every reason to suppost the Lannisters. Walder Frey is an opportunist though, so he might be persuaded to support Dany, but probably not until after the Lannisters are finished.

In the Vale, even if we assume that the Vale Lords have a beef with the Lannister/Tyrell alliance and want regime change, LF is a major fly in the ointment. Its anyone's guess as to what he is really up to.

In the north I think it largely depends on Stannis/Davos. If Stannis is successful in ousting the Boltons from Winterfell, and Davos is successful in finding and bringing back Rickon, it appears the north would be loyal to Stannis (particularly the Manderlys and Glovers). However, if the Boltons defeat Stannis, they would be good candidates to support Dany in the show universe considering that they just betrayed the Lannisters with the Sansa marriage. So I guess Tyrion did leave out the Boltons (of course he may not know about the Sansa marriage).

I'm not sure what your point is regarding the LBJ comparison. I don't understand the comparison between someone's capability to be both a queen and a good politician, and being both a scoundrel and a good politician. 3 out of the 4 things being compared are character traits, being a queen doesn't seem to fit. But perhaps I'm just not understanding your point. Could you clarify?

[El Guapo]

I do but it doesn't give me any reason to think Dany will succeed. Some pirate shows up to save her bacon? Just more evidence that she sucks as a leader. Jon is up North making lemonade out of pisswater and she's in Merreen screwing stuff up.

No pirate is showing up to save her bacon and lol at Jon being this great leader considering his own men try to stab him to death.

[Dany's Golden Fleece]

Lol loving the rabid anti-Dany base going crazy that Daenerys might have a mere positive contribution to the story lol. How dare she!

[OldGimletEye]

I'm not sure what your point is regarding the LBJ comparison. I don't understand the comparison between someone's capability to be both a queen and a good politician, and being both a scoundrel and a good politician. 3 out of the 4 things being compared are character traits, being a queen doesn't seem to fit. But perhaps I'm just not understanding your point. Could you clarify?

Yes. Certainly. What I am attacking here is mainly D & D's writing. The whole idea that Dany is a queen but not a politician as she says in an earlier episode. I guess it's sounds like a real fist pumper, but I think its kind of dumb. I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with a queen being a good politician. And in fact a good queen ought to be a good politician if she is going to get shit done. That was my point about LBJ. Love him or hate him, he was pretty good at getting shit done because he was in many ways a fantastic politician.

[OldGimletEye]

In the Riverlands the Tullys are almost a non-entity at this point, and the Freys are the real power in the region now, and have every reason to suppost the Lannisters. Walder Frey is an opportunist though, so he might be persuaded to support Dany, but probably not until after the Lannisters are finished.

I'd argue though that the Frey's hold on the Riverlands is hardly secure and the Tully's or their legitimate descendants still hold a great deal of political legitimacy there . At least it would be worth a try.

[Stannistician]

Yes. Certainly. What I am attacking here is mainly D & D's writing. The whole idea that Dany is a queen but not a politician as she says in an earlier episode. I guess it's sounds like a real fist pumper, but I think its kind of dumb. I don't think there is anything inherently wrong with a queen being a good politician. And in fact a good queen ought to be a good politician if she is going to get shit done.

Got it. That seems to be D & D's style though; make every character a one trick pony so to speak. Really takes away the depth and complexity of the characters. And I agree, kings and queens need to be good at both their executive functions and be politically savvy at the same time - they tend to die prematurely if not good at the latter.

[Stannistician]

I'd argue though that the Frey's hold on the Riverlands is hardly secure and the Tully's or their legitimate descendants still hold a great deal of political legitimacy there . At least it would be worth a try.

True, especially in the show universe. The Freys appear to have lost a major ally in the Boltons with the Sansa marriage/betrayal of the Lannisters (of course conversely this means that the Boltons pretty much pissed away the Frey alliance with the Sansa marriage - pretty stupid considering the looming battle with Stannis). So the Freys are politically weaker in the show. Of course LF holds some title over the Riverlands right now doesn't he? I forget what the title is.

[JonStarkIII]

Very true, she came to that realisation in the books in the Dothraki sea. It means we might not be getting the hallucinogenic visions in the last episode.

Egg tried to give the common folk more rights and to limit the powers of the feudal lords over them. He did not succeed and was hated and distrusted by the nobility for it. It was suggested by The World of Ice and Fire that Aegon came to believe that he could only have the power to give more rights to the common folk IF he had dragons to cower the nobility. As a result Egg tried to hatch dragon eggs at Summerhall which lead to his death.

The thing is Daenerys has dragons.

Something stuck with me as well with the High Sparrow speech. "You are the few, we are the many. And what happens when the many begin to not fear the few." Its all set up imo.

Seismic change is coming to Westeros. Also the introduction of Grey Scale in the show/book is a curious thing. It was the Black Death that was the final nail in the coffin of feudalism in Europe, less peasants actually gave them more power.

I like your theory...especially comparing greyscale to the plague in Europe..good catch!

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

True, especially in the show universe. The Freys appear to have lost a major ally in the Boltons with the Sansa marriage/betrayal of the Lannisters (of course conversely this means that the Boltons pretty much pissed away the Frey alliance with the Sansa marriage - pretty stupid considering the looming battle with Stannis). So the Freys are politically weaker in the show. Of course LF holds some title over the Riverlands right now doesn't he? I forget what the title is.

Walder Frey knows Tywin Lannister is dead, so I don't think the Freys would abandon the Boltons knowing House Lannister wields much less power without him, although I suppose their proximity might pose a problem, but knowing Walder Frey he would stay out of it until he knew what side was winning.

[Stannistician]

Walder Frey knows Tywin Lannister is dead, so I don't think the Freys would abandon the Boltons knowing House Lannister wields much less power without him, although I suppose their proximity might pose a problem, but knowing Walder Frey he would stay out of it until he knew what side was winning.

Proximity is certainly an issue. I agree Walder Frey would stay out of the way (he didn't get the name the late Walder Frey for nothing). But this means that Walder cannot afford to outwardly support the Boltons in the fight against Stannis (although one would think they would have some people up north protecting Walda). I think the converse is true as well, Walder would not openly accept political or military help from the Boltons. So this renders the Freys politically and militarily weaker in the show than in the books.

[Nictarion]

I do but it doesn't give me any reason to think Dany will succeed. Some pirate shows up to save her bacon? Just more evidence that she sucks as a leader. Jon is up North making lemonade out of pisswater and she's in Merreen screwing stuff up.

Spoiler alert; Jon's lemonade is about to get pissed in. :P

[ADanceWithCats]

Regardless, I think there's a bigger problem. With the way GRRM has written the story, we're very heavily invested in the fates of the other great houses and the political maneuvering that has taken place in Westeros. I'm not saying it can't happen or that it won't happen, but seeing those houses stripped of power in favor of an absolute monarch runs a great risk of alienating the fanbase [...]

You know, this is a fascinating argument. The counterargument, obviously, is that the story is worthless if, after it, nothing changes. If the WW come and leave and afterwards, and it's just back to the game as usual, the story made no sense. Something has to change.

Maybe Dany bringing up about the 'common people' wanting her back, when we see the common people rallying for the Starks or behind the faith is setting something up. How does Dany react when the desires of the people go against her ambition? Does she respect them enough to leave them be? Or will she become 'Mother' and believe she knows what is best for the poor souls?

She respects them and lets them be, or at least works with them to meet them halfway. Vide: - the chaining of dragons; - letting the old slave become re-slaved; - opening the pits and marrying Hizdahr.

Lol loving the rabid anti-Dany base going crazy that Daenerys might have a mere positive contribution to the story lol. How dare she!

Oh gods, yes, this. I especially love the oppression olympics: "Dany didn't suffer! Jon suffered! Stannis suffered!" Instead of celebrating that Dany's return to Westeros now has a cool Dany-unique context that is not just "I was born to conquer" and that flows directly from the time she spent in Meereen (so she did learn something in this city on the show! It wasn't completely a useless waddling about from a blocked author who tied himself into a knot!), those people are unhappy that she might even challenge that status quo.

[Liz Stark-Targaryen]

Lol loving the rabid anti-Dany base going crazy that Daenerys might have a mere positive contribution to the story lol. How dare she!

:lmao: I'm telling you, I am already getting my popcorn ready for Season 6 (and on the book side, TWoW). Dany had a couple of bad books but she's not going to go full on Mad King. I laughed out loud when she told Tyrion, "I know what my father was."

They are going to have fits in 2016. I cannot wait!

Oh gods, yes, this. I especially love the oppression olympics: "Dany didn't suffer! Jon suffered! Stannis suffered!" Instead of celebrating that Dany's return to Westeros now has a cool Dany-unique context that is not just "I was born to conquer" and that flows directly from the time she spent in Meereen (so she did learn something in this city on the show! It wasn't completely a useless waddling about from a blocked author who tied himself into a knot!), those people are unhappy that she might even challenge that status quo.

Yes. The orchestra is starting to tune up in the pit, as the pieces of the Game start to line up. Dany, whether people like her or not, is an essential piece.

[nastydream]

:lmao: I'm telling you, I am already getting my popcorn ready for Season 6 (and on the book side, TWoW). Dany had a couple of bad books but she's not going to go full on Mad King. I laughed out loud when she told Tyrion, "I know what my father was."

They are going to have fits in 2016. I cannot wait!

fits?what's that?

but don't worry the show is definitely not going that way