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US Politics: Clown Show Edition


awesome possum

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Just as the Romans eventually pined for the days of Nero, we will look back and wish for the days of Bush/Cheney 

 

God help us all 

Just in about 2 years, fight your desire (I know it will be hard) to vote for trump, just to hear what he would say as president. Yes, I know it will be like walking away if a time traveler would offer you the whole bookseries of ASoIaF and every GoT episode which will ever be done, but be strong! Turn away!

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Just as the Romans eventually pined for the days of Nero, we will look back and wish for the days of Bush/Cheney 

 

God help us all 

 

That's scary.

 

Anyway, when Trump first threw his hat in the ring I thought he was a joke. I still think he's a joke, but maybe he's a joke with some sticking power. It feels a little different than in 2012 with the whole Bachman, then Cain, then Gingritch leading the polls. Maybe it will turn out the same.

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Just in about 2 years, fight your desire (I know it will be hard) to vote for trump, just to hear what he would say as president. Yes, I know it will be like walking away if a time traveler would offer you the whole bookseries of ASoIaF and every GoT episode which will ever be done, but be strong! Turn away!

 

Cocaine and comedy are my greatest pleasures in life, and I rarely say no them. I don't think I have the willpower to resist the historic opportunity for lolz that voting for Trump represents. I want to see where this ride goes, even if it ends up crashing and blowing up the entire park. 

 

 

That's scary.

 

Anyway, when Trump first threw his hat in the ring I thought he was a joke. I still think he's a joke, but maybe he's a joke with some sticking power. It feels a little different than in 2012 with the whole Bachman, then Cain, then Gingritch leading the polls. Maybe it will turn out the same.

 

The punchline will be when Trump achieves one final bankruptcy, but this time of the entire U.S.A. rather than a real estate company. He'll then retire to some private island in the Mediterranean, where he'll publish a bestselling memoir in which he calls Pope Francis a pedophile commie and claims Bill Gates infects Africans with AIDS. 

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That's scary.

 

Anyway, when Trump first threw his hat in the ring I thought he was a joke. I still think he's a joke, but maybe he's a joke with some sticking power. It feels a little different than in 2012 with the whole Bachman, then Cain, then Gingritch leading the polls. Maybe it will turn out the same.

 

 

I feel quite confident saying there is a ~0 percent chance Trump gets the Republican nomination.  There is a reason he is still at 25 or 30 to 1 odds on any betting site. That 28 percent number is a joke. Though anyone who supports Hillary should be rooting hard for him.

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I think the best chance of Trump getting the nomination is if the Republican Establishment decides that Hillary is pretty much invincible, lets Trump be the sacrificial lamb, and sits on their hands in order to discredit the crazies. A sort of 1972 in reverse.

 

I don't think the Establishment feels this way, yet.

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As a guy who endured the mayorship of Rob Ford, I gotta say that a Trump Presidency would be highly entertaining.

It would also continue the run of billionaires every second President that's been in place since Reaganomics taught America that wealth was meritorious and altruistic.
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It would also continue the run of billionaires every second President that's been in place since Reaganomics taught America that wealth was meritorious and altruistic.

 

Do you mean millionaires? None of Bush, Clinton, Bush Jnr or Obama are anything close to being billionaires.

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Remember that in 2012 Herman Cain lead the field for a time but was effectively out of the picture by the time we started approaching the Iowa caucouses. Voting is so far away right now the people aren't genuinely considering who they would mark their ballot for. Polls at this stage are going to reflect who has managed to get the public's attention. Such attention is a fleeting thing. Trump has been able to seize it by virtue of having the strongest name recognition of any GDP candidate besides possibly Mr Bush due to 30 years as a public figure, including a stint as a reality TV star. He's also managed to be entertaining in a way the other occupants of the clown car can not even come close to.

I frankly doubt he's all that serious about becoming president either. It's another publicity stunt in a long serious of such escapades, similar to how Mr Cain's 2012 run was a thinly veiled promo campaign to sell his books. Sure, if the twists and turns of US politics kept Mr Trump a contender when we get to the meat of the actual race that he would go with it, but that's not what this is about. To win a presidential nomination, much less the white house, you need not only money but to build organization. The serious candidates, like Bush and Walker are doing that hard behind the scenes work while Trump steals the headlines but they will be the ones bashing it out for the nomination when the winter of 2016 roles around.

Now, I would not put it past Mr Trump to stage a independent run. He has the personal resources to do so and had aforementioned high profile wouled give him a chance to be a factor in the race, if not a threat to take the white house.

 

To be clear, I still don't think he can or will win the nomination. What's troubling about this poll bump is not that I think it means he's set up to win, but that it comes right after he made headlines for racist comments. You'd hope saying the kind of shit Trump said would cost him support, instead it's earned him more. Regardless of how he fares later this says something about the state of the Republican Party, and it's nothing good.

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Take heart. That's 28% of the few hundred or thousand people they called who bothered to answer their questions.  It doesn't by any means represent a majority of Americans.


I mean, that's true, 28% isn't a majority of Americans.

Assuming that tautological point isn't the one you were trying to make, please allow me to introduce you to the concept of statistical analysis.
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I mean, that's true, 28% isn't a majority of Americans.

Assuming that tautological point isn't the one you were trying to make, please allow me to introduce you to the concept of statistical analysis.

 

Are these poll numbers for Trump based on the general populace? I had thought they'd be likely Republican primary voters -- which is a way different demographic than general populace, or even Republicans.

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On one side of the GOP Clown Car, you have Clown Extraordinaire Donald Trump, who is being sued over his bankrupt university.  Which brings up this related story, Donald Trump apparently had his own university

 

Trump University, launched in 2005, promised to teach students the mogul's investing techniques to get rich on real estate. But the suit claims the teachers were not professors hand-picked by Trump as advertised, but rather independent contractors paid commissions for sales of the seminars and products.
 
The suit also alleges that the University would "upsell" students in its initial free seminar to buy a $1,495 "one year apprenticeship" -- which was effectively a three-day seminar. Then if they bought that, the teachers would upsell them again to buy "mentorships" at a cost of $10,000 and up. The most expensive, the Gold Elite program, cost $35,000.
 
"Even then, after investing nearly $36,500, students still do not receive Defendant Trump's 'secrets' they were promised, but are constantly subjected to upsell of additional Live Events, products and books," the Cohen suit said.

 

 

I knew the guy was a delusional loudmouth but wow, he's also an actual snake oil salesman.  Kudos, GOP.  Ku-freaking-dos.

 

And on the other side of the Clown Car, it's corruption of a whole different scale, Chris Christie-style:

 

During the first year of the Christie administration, a team of prosecutors in Hunterdon County was pursuing a criminal investigation of some of the governor's political pals.
 
It was not a huge case. The local sheriff was accused of hiring deputies without conducting proper background checks and making employees sign loyalty oaths. Her deputies were accused of manufacturing fake police badges for a prominent donor to the governor, and threatening one of their critics. By Jersey standards, this case was low-volume sleaze.
 
The bigger problem is what happened next. On the day the 43-page indictment was unsealed, the Christie administration swooped in and took over the Hunterdon prosecutor's office. Not long after, a state deputy attorney general told a judge that the indictment was fatally flawed, and the judge dismissed the case. That's unusual.
 
Then the attorney general's office took all the grand jury records to Trenton, and has since waged a long legal fight to keep them secret.
 
It gets worse.

 

 

Christie and Trump are like two sides of the same bitter, small-minded, spiteful coin.  

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 What's troubling about this poll bump is not that I think it means he's set up to win, but that it comes right after he made headlines for racist comments. You'd hope saying the kind of shit Trump said would cost him support, instead it's earned him more. Regardless of how he fares later this says something about the state of the Republican Party, and it's nothing good.

 

But that's the thing: if saying horribly offensive or ridiculous shit doesn't hurt him in the polls, and actually apparently helps him, what's stopping him from becoming a real threat for the nomination? He insulted a guy near-universally viewed as a war hero, and former Republican nominee to boot, for being captured by the enemy and is still leading the polls. If he can get away with that, what can't he do? 

 

Trump has the "outsider" status, the brash fuck-you attitude, and harsh-to-the-point-of-insanity stance on immigration that the GOP base has been craving since Bush II was in office. Of course the establishment and big money types will line up against him, which is his biggest hurdle. But the GOP base now despises the establishment and views them as sell-outs. A lot of his potential success depends on if Trump is really in it to win it or is just craving attention...

 

I'm not saying he'll be the nominee. I'm just saying don't give up hope  :cool4:

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But that's the thing: if saying horribly offensive or ridiculous shit doesn't hurt him in the polls, and actually apparently helps him, what's stopping him from becoming a real threat for the nomination? He insulted a guy near-universally viewed as a war hero, and former Republican nominee to boot, for being captured by the enemy and is still leading the polls. If he can get away with that, what can't he do? 

 

Trump has the "outsider" status, the brash fuck-you attitude, and harsh-to-the-point-of-insanity stance on immigration that the GOP base has been craving since Bush II was in office. Of course the establishment and big money types will line up against him, which is his biggest hurdle. But the GOP base now despises the establishment and views them as sell-outs. A lot of his potential success depends on if Trump is really in it to win it or is just craving attention...

 

I'm not saying he'll be the nominee. I'm just saying don't give up hope  :cool4:

 

Maybe Donald Trump will be the one who finally establishes a third party in this country. He can peel off the racists and xenophobes from the Reagan coalition, leaving the plutocrats and possibly McJesusites to the GOP.

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What's the worst Trump can do as president, given the checks and balances provided by Congress and the Senate?

 

Build a wall on the Mexican border? Other than not being everyone's cup of tea, what's the worst impact this would have on America?

 

Declare war on some state? He would need majority Senate/House approval to carry it out, not?

 

Change the tax regime? Again, he would need majority support for that, surely?

 

I'm curious. What is the massive disaster that people fear will happen with Trump at the helm of the country? Look at Obama. A radical socialist extremist, and he has been reigned in reasonably effectively by the checks and balances of the Senate and the House, preventing him from doing too much damage during his 8 years in office.

 

People need to chill out a bit. The worst thing that most presidents can bring about, is someone's pet policy or activist position NOT being prioritized. In order to replace it with any opposing policy position, he needs majority support to do so. So no president can bring about a calamity all on his own, surely.

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