Do the Mountain Clans Abandon Stannis?

[Caspoi]

Winter's Cold@ No he is still fighting it.

[Trigger Warning]

Stannis' conversation with Cat shows why he wouldn't want to respond to Ned. 

Here's a hint. 

 

:crying:

[Fat Mac]

 

Stannis lost a war as well. That's why he's not on the Iron Throne.

 

Well his body hasn't had a direwolf's head sewn onto it, so he's doing better than Robb.

 

As Tywin said "the man will fight to the bitter end and then some." Stannis' war isn't over until he's dead.

[Winter's Cold]

 

Well his body hasn't had a direwolf's head sewn onto it, so he's doing better than Robb.

 

As Tywin said "the man will fight to the bitter end and then some." Stannis' war isn't over until he's dead.

 

He might end up as the last Baratheon lord in history while the Starks continue on. In that case, he would be a greater failure than Robb. We won't know until the series is done though.

[nyser1]

 

He might end up as the last Baratheon lord in history while the Starks continue on. In that case, he would be a greater failure than Robb. We won't know until the series is done though.

 

Unless Gendry and or Edric Storm (the more likely) are legitimized I would say the Baratheons are done. It seems though that in most of their history there has been one male in the generations...small family. Microscopic compared to that of the Freys, Lannisters, Tyrells, or Starks even.

[Fat Mac]

 
He might end up as the last Baratheon lord in history while the Starks continue on. In that case, he would be a greater failure than Robb. We won't know until the series is done though.

Possibly, though I don't think Edric and Gendry exist for nothing.

[TheOne-EyedHound]

 
If he wanted not to commit treason, he would have told Robert.
 
 
 
Are you really saying you need proof that Melisandre was with Stannis and that he never told Robert?

And what would Robert do? Robert never gave Stannis any kind of affection or care about anything Stannis had to say. He'll just laugh and call him mad, or maybe chose to believe him, but he wouldn't make any sudden decision, and that's all Littlefinger & Ceresi need to take out someone. If Robert started to suspect anything, he's as good as dead, something Stannis must've figured out.

What would Ned stark do? He'll investigate, but get murdered in the process, something Stannis must've known.

Stannis had no ties with Mel before Robert's death, go read the prologue of ACoK.

Stannis himself said "I've never asked for this" I doubt an honorable man like Stannis wanted anything to do with the throne. It just doesn't fit the character we have been reading about in the last 5 books, Stannis a guy who would cut the fingers off his savior. Stannis is the guy who didn't accept the alliance of 35-45k Wildlings because the leader broke his oath to the NW.

[Sage of Westeros]

They didn't join Stannis because of "Arya" but they forced Stannis to march on Winterfell because of "Arya. They joined Stannis because he asked them for help and because the Boltons betrayed the Starks.

[nyser1]

Even if Ramsay and Roose suddenly dropped dead, I can hardly envision a realistic scenario where the remnants of the North go South again. Even if you took away all that is happening at the wall and beyond, why would they go South again? Robb did not think they would go back South for him even...

[Sage of Westeros]

Even if Ramsay and Roose suddenly dropped dead, I can hardly envision a realistic scenario where the remnants of the North go South again. Even if you took away all that is happening at the wall and beyond, why would they go South again? Robb did not think they would go back South for him even...

I think a speech about avenging the Starks by finishing the Lannisters could rouse the North for one last march south. Sort of like the final days of the Dance of Dragons where winter was arriving and the northmen decided to stay south and roam/fight to allow others more food.

[nyser1]

I think a speech about avenging the Starks by finishing the Lannisters could rouse the North for one last march south. Sort of like the final days of the Dance of Dragons where winter was arriving and the northmen decided to stay south and roam/fight to allow others more food.

 

I could see that, but with the arrival of winter? The battle between both sides will likely be bloody, and realistically the threat in the North is bound to go South of the Wall. 

[Sage of Westeros]

 

I could see that, but with the arrival of winter? The battle between both sides will likely be bloody, and realistically the threat in the North is bound to go South of the Wall. 

I think the northmen will go south with Stannis because he defended the Wall and is likely to do so again after winning the throne. They'll want to end the war(quickly) with a Pro-NW king on the throne who will rally the realm to save the north.

[nyser1]

I think the northmen will go south with Stannis because he defended the Wall and is likely to do so again after winning the throne. They'll want to end the war(quickly) with a Pro-NW king on the throne who will rally the realm to save the north.

 

All aboard to the polar express to Moat Cailin!

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

He might end up as the last Baratheon lord in history while the Starks continue on. In that case, he would be a greater failure than Robb. We won't know until the series is done though.

 

Robb was the first ever Stark to lose control of the North. The Baratheons have only been in charge of the Stormlands for 300 years, the Starks thousands of years.  Clearly at this point Robb is the bigger failure.

[sweetsunray]

Even if Ramsay and Roose suddenly dropped dead, I can hardly envision a realistic scenario where the remnants of the North go South again. Even if you took away all that is happening at the wall and beyond, why would they go South again? Robb did not think they would go back South for him even...

 

You're discounting any news that may come from the Riverlands. The BwB seem to have allied with the remnant Northern forces (which might actually be a thousand) that escaped from the RW. Robb brought 3500 men with him to the Twins. 1000 bodies were counted. What's up with the rest of them? 500 men Roose left to defend the Ford when he went to the Twins with 3500 men. They were attacked by the Mountain, where "as many fell as drowned, but more fled." If more fled than died, that would be 300 war hardened men. And from the sounds of what Jaime and Brienne learn during their tours in the RL there are Northern bands roving. We don't know how many but it's a number between 300-2000 at the low end and max. The BwB is helped extensively by the common folk, with an extensive network after all these years - 3 times with a capture of a target, camp followers were present not long before that. Petyr Pimple and his camp follower, Ryman and his camp follower with Robb's crown (and through Brienne we know LS has that crown), and finally the camp follower with Bracken hours before Jaime's approached by Brienne and disappears. Brynden escaped RR. There's only a garisson of 200 men guarding RR, and Tom Sevenstreams is inside RR. He can let in a force at any given time. Meanwhile hostages have to be sent from the Twins and put on the road, either to KL or CR, as well as Edmure and Jeyne on the road to CR. Black Walder is using a large portion of the Frey force to keep Mallister at Seagard. And at Darry's Frey forces and Lannister men are having a good time with "opengate" Amy.

 

In other words Lannisters and Freys are splintered all over the Riverlands while an unknown number of war hardened Northerners and experienced BwB with a vengeful LS and a tactician as Brynden waiting to spring them. Meanwhile the Tyrells are being kept busy in KL, Arbor, Oldtown and Shield Islands. Cersei has no other fleet anymore, and her Lannisters are leaderless without Kevan and Jaime and splintered in the RL.

 

Then I haven't even mentioned all the RL houses that "helped" with the RR siege by basically doing nothing. Sure several of them were there, but Jaime got complaints they were pretty useless. Meanwhile Jaime noticed several Houses not being even there. The moment they learn and know Edmure is free as well as the other hostages that were held at the Twins, they jump in straight away to do away with the fractured and splintered Frey-Lannister forces.

The RL are about to fall back into the hands of the Houses that backed Robb Stark, with Walder Frey completely isolated in his Twins, and 2000 Freys down, drowned and butchered at the Battle of Ice.

 

The game is about to change, both in the North and the Riverlands. aDwD and aFfC gives us the clues that something is afoot, and while it looks all bleak and lost for the RL and North by the end of it, and won for KL-Freys and Boltons, what we see is their last moment of power. They're at the tipping point, and it's going to fall like a house of cards.

[sweetsunray]

 

I'd say the burning of a weirwood tree as sacrifice to R'hillor, a decidedly foreign god, as pushed for by Stannis southeron forces, might be enough to insult the Clans into breaking their oath.  Cut off some traitors heads before the weirwood, that's traditional in the North.  Harming the tree, or worse, destroying one/them to appease a foreign god?  The teaser chapter for WoW hints that might occur, and in my opinion, would be a grave insult to any Northmen whom follow and believe in the Old Gods.  Northmen like the Mountain Clans, whom are best among Stannis forces in dealing with the winter.

 

Before the Battle of Winterfell, Stannis will burn the weirwood tree, with sacrifices.  In the morning, he wakes to find the Mountain Clans have vanished into the snows and blizzard, along with a goodly number of other Northmen.  Least, that's my supposition, based on the OP question, revised.

 

And you don't think Stannis knows this? He may be desperate (actually I don't think he is, only wants to appear that way so the enemy underestimates him), but he ain't a fool. Yes, he'll make a sacrifice, but one that won't harm his strategy and won't lose him the majority of his forces. Stannis is more flexible than people think, and he's not shy to use subterfuge and smugglers and glamors for strategic reasons.

[sweetsunray]

If, or let's say when the northern mountain clans find out that "Arya" or Jeyne Poole is a fake, do they abandon Stannis? They no longer have any reason to fight for him so what would be keeping them around?

 

And what would this mean for his eventual battle at Winterfell? 

 

I think Stannis already knows she's fake. He made sure to send her away ASAP from the crofter's village, with a well known womanizer, a banker, the she-bear and small escort and called her dismissively the "Stark" girl. It's possible that Tychio knows where the real Arya is. IB and FM work closely together for Braavos interests. And Jon thought it was way too easy to get what he wanted from Tychio, including all his Braavos ships. But Arya gave the KM the info on the Lyseni slaver ships that picked up women and children from Hardhome. While one ship ended up being hold up in Braavos for this, the other probably did reach Lys and they're eager for more. Why would Tychio need 3 ships from Braavos? And why do they only want to take the women and children aboard? Might it be to act pre-emptively against the Lyseni slavers - to steal their easy targets, get them to Braavos instead as free people and disrupt the slavery business? Ain't it ironic how Arya indirectly is the source that gives Jon the means of ships to rescue people from Hardhome?

 

Anyhow, at least the Northerners won't find out for a long while.

 

Secondly - they hate the Boltons. It'll be a harsh winter and as we know the mountain clans have a tradition of saving food for their own by "going hunting". Might as well do everything to take the Boltons down. The clans argued for WF as target, for Ned's girl, but they allied with Stannis before that plan was agreed to; though I think it was Stannis' intention all along. He took Deepwood Motte to get more Northerners behind him, but by doing that, he'd know he'd lose the advantage of surprise to Bolton. Well, if you don't have complete surprise, then best pretend to be stupid and pretend to be intent on sieging a castle, where Bolton would gather all his allied forces. Then allies unknown to Bolton can take, raid and capture other targets under false-flag. Stannis needs the Dreadfort for food, more than WF. The Dreadfort is the best stocked for Winter. But how to capture it in the first place? By having Bolton's main force hold up someplace else - WF.

[Winter's Cold]

 

Robb was the first ever Stark to lose control of the North. The Baratheons have only been in charge of the Stormlands for 300 years, the Starks thousands of years.  Clearly at this point Robb is the bigger failure.

 

Winterfell has been burned by the Boltons and Northern territory has been taken by the Greyjoys. Every time this occurred, the Starks still managed to regroup and drive them back. If Robb's demise is the permanent end of Stark hegemony over the North, then he is the bigger failure. If the Starks manage to reclaim their territory and defeat their enemies while Stannis and his line dies with him, then Stannis is the bigger failure.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

They didn't join Stannis because of "Arya" but they forced Stannis to march on Winterfell because of "Arya. They joined Stannis because he asked them for help and because the Boltons betrayed the Starks.

Yep. I think many are ignoring the fact Jon sent Stannis to the clans and he spent many days with them, probably hearing them and making arrangements.

The clans aren't much for politics but they do want one thing: a Stark in Winterfell. There is a chance some of them might believe Jon to be the one Stannis will give them, those who doesn't know about Bran or Rickon, I mean.
 
 

Winterfell has been burned by the Boltons and Northern territory has been taken by the Greyjoys. Every time this occurred, the Starks still managed to regroup and drive them back. If Robb's demise is the permanent end of Stark hegemony over the North, then he is the bigger failure. If the Starks manage to reclaim their territory and defeat their enemies while Stannis and his line dies with him, then Stannis is the bigger failure.

When Winterfell was burned, Robb was in the South, Arya and Sansa were prisoners and Bran and Rickon had to run (and were believed to be dead). The situations in which Winterfell was burned then are now are completely opposite. The Starks then weren't prisoners below the Neck.

Stannis can't be considered a failure because, despite he lost BW, he still kept his territories. At least until now. I mean, if we compare the Stark with Stannis:

Ned, Arya and Sansa part South.
Catelyn leaves Winterfell.
Ned dies in King's Landing.
Robb leaves the North to war.
Sansa and Arya are made prisoners.
Bran and Rickon are thought dead/leave Winterfell.
Winterfell is taken by Theon. Gets burned.
Robb and Cat are killed.
WF's taken by the Boltons, under Lannsiter command.

 

Stannis, otoh:

 

Leaves Dragonstone to take KL. Fails.

Returns to Dragonstone.

Gets back Storm's End.

Sails to the North where he defeats the Wildlings, makes alliances with Northern Lords,

[spoiler]

Gets a deal with the Iron Bank to get money and is now hiring sellswords

[/spoiler]

Dragonstone is taken by Tyrells/Lannisters.

[spoiler]

Storm's End is taken by Connington

[/spoiler]

Yet, Stannis, his men, his family and his forces are alive and about to face a Batlle is very likely they will win, and if the do, the North will support him as King. Will it matter that he lost BW and his lands? The North is half Westeros :dunno:

 

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

 

Winterfell has been burned by the Boltons and Northern territory has been taken by the Greyjoys. Every time this occurred, the Starks still managed to regroup and drive them back. If Robb's demise is the permanent end of Stark hegemony over the North, then he is the bigger failure. If the Starks manage to reclaim their territory and defeat their enemies while Stannis and his line dies with him, then Stannis is the bigger failure.

 

So currently Robb is the biggest failure, which is pretty much what I said.