What is Littlefinger's real plan?

[Greywater-Watch]

Something is "awry". We know that Littlefinger has exchanged his powerful position as master of the coin for the following titles:

1. Lord Protector of the Eyrie and the Vale

2. Lord of Harrenhal

3. Lord Paramount of the Trident (shifting it from the Tullys in Riverrun to Harrenhal)

I assume that the latter requires LF to execute his position as Lord of Harrenhal, which for the moment he has not shown any interest in.

Leaves him being Lord Protector of the Eyrie and the Vale. To my understanding that is only a valid title as long as the real Lord (Sweetrobin at the moment) has not come of age.

Now, what will be left to LF when his plans come true (we discard all obstacles such as Sansa being still officially married to Tyrion and Sansa is the true heir of Winterfell, i.e. Bran and Rickon thought or being dead?

a ) Sweetrobin dies, Sansa is married to Harry the Heir => Harry the Heir controls the Eyrie and the Vale

b ) After the true identity of Sansa is revealed all Knights of the Vale stand up and help Sansa regain Winterfell => Sansa and Harry the Heir control Winterfell

Well, somehow, all power drifts away from Littlefinger towards the hands of Harry the Heir and Sansa.

Does Littlefinger really count on that Sansa remains so devote to him that channeling through her the power remains with him?

I do not believe this. What is Littlefinger's real plan???

[Lord Vance II]

For me, his only plan is to create chaos and use it to his advantage has he has through the entire series. He thrives on uncertainty and conflict, maneuvering through it like a master. He doesn't have an end goal...he's too ambitious to have a point where he's satisfied short of King. 

I think he's arrogant enough to think he has Sansa under his thumb. His plans don't seem to account for the possibility of his own error. 

But for all his smarts, he doesn't seem to know anything about the real situation in the North. 

[Chebyshov]

Please don't project a certain fanfic onto Littlefinger. He benefits from an unstable realm in the same way that Varys does, but the guy does plan, and rather intricately. Unrest creates opportunity, but his MO isn’t to toss a bunch of balls up in the air or to make random gambles…he has plans and he even has backup plans. As an example, when it became clear that Lysa was beyond controllable, Littlefinger pushed her out the Moon Door knowing there was someone (Marillion) who could take the fall for him. And he sure as hell made sure Sansa’s hair was dyed before getting to the Eyrie, full of so many workers who could easily let something slip. 

Anyway, his rather explicit sexual grooming (and political grooming) of her does suggest that he believes he has control of her. It's not so much about trusting her devotion as much as it is a power dynamic that he's established. Guy has character failings, and hubris is definitely one of them.

[Scorpion92]

Littlefinger's main personal ambition is to become the most powerful man in Westeros. But his fiasco with Catelyn also brought him tremendous inner motivation to bring down feudal society and establish something new, a country where a man's family name and blood will not decide his stature and place in society. Which, again, can be achieved if you are the most powerful man in Westeros.

Littlefinger knows his weaknesses very well. He knows he is not a military man and will never have a loyal army at his side. However, he can manipulate other powerful lords and ladies who have armies at their backs to do his bidding. And to do his bidding, he needs them to depend on him, which is why he uses money as his power tool. His ancestors are from Braavos, so I am pretty sure he has big connections with Iron Bank.

[aryagonnakill#2]

LF says he wished he had more time when speaking of Cersei's mistakes in Kings Landing.  I think the plan was to get Sansa married to Harry, get Sansa with child, knock off Robert, then knock off Harry, then marry Sansa once again becoming Lord Protector of the Vale, only this time being married to the women he wants to be married to who he thinks can also bring him the North. 

Under those circumstances he could reasonably expect to control the North, Riverlands, and Vale.

 Marrying Sansa to Robert is the obvious move, but LF may hate Robert out of spite, his child was aborted but Robert got to live, and given his health he may worry that he won't survive anyway, or that perhaps he will not be fertile.  This makes Harry the safer option.

I see LF framing someone for Roberts murder just after Sansa and Harrys betrothal is a done deal.  Perhaps Corbray has outlived his usefulness, or perhaps LF is aware of Shadrichs true motive.

[Chebyshov]

2 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

LF says he wished he had more time when speaking of Cersei's mistakes in Kings Landing.  

I always read that as Martin's way of lampshading the rushed timeline thanks to his scrapping of the 5-year gap. I'm not convinced had he stuck with the 2 trilogies format, much would be different where we picked back up with Sansa. 

[kimim]

2 hours ago, Chebyshov said:

Please don't project a certain fanfic onto Littlefinger. He benefits from an unstable realm in the same way that Varys does, but the guy does plan, and rather intricately. Unrest creates opportunity, but his MO isn’t to toss a bunch of balls up in the air or to make random gambles…he has plans and he even has backup plans. As an example, when it became clear that Lysa was beyond controllable, Littlefinger pushed her out the Moon Door knowing there was someone (Marillion) who could take the fall for him. And he sure as hell made sure Sansa’s hair was dyed before getting to the Eyrie, full of so many workers who could easily let something slip. 

Anyway, his rather explicit sexual grooming (and political grooming) of her does suggest that he believes he has control of her. It's not so much about trusting her devotion as much as it is a power dynamic that he's established. Guy has character failings, and hubris is definitely one of them.

LF uses both long-term, intricate plans and random gambles, nor is he entirely pro-chaos. He prepares to make Ned Hand, prepares to set the Lannisters and Starks against one another. However, when Ned warns Cersei and she assassinates Robert, LF jumps at the chance to make Ned regent, with LF as man behind the throne. Ned turns him down, so LF returns to the Lannister-Stark war as chaos-opportunity. Had Ned agreed, though, I think LF would have fought hard to end the impending war.

LF is not responsible for the chaos after Joff's death. That is Varys, killing Tywin via Tyrion. Without that, the immediate result of Joffrey's death would have been stability: The crazy king is dead. Malleable Tommen is king, with Tywin as Hand and a Tyrell queen. Tyrion either goes to the Wall or is beheaded; either way, his marriage to Sansa ends. Meanwhile, the realm stays stable with Tywin at the helm.

I think that from LF's pov, Joff had to die not to create chaos, but in order to get Sansa out of KL. I think that Sansa is central to all of LF's post-Ned plotting: He gets her out of the engagement with Joff via the Tyrell marriage. He warns Tywin about her potential marriage to Willas, keeping her dependent on him and at KL.

That would mean that a marriage to Sansa has to be a part of LF's plans. She is already the lady of WF. She can gain control over the Vale by marriage to Harry and a resulting child; Robin is obviously useless when it comes to creating heirs. Upon Harry's death, Sansa takes over the position that Lysa vacated. Married to her, LF remains lord of Harrenhal, in control of the Riverlands through food supplies. He remains lord protector of the Vale. He becomes lord of Winterfell. All of them would give him control over a giant swath of Westeros, and make him the most powerful lord of Westeros. At which point, one of his children could well become king or queen; he could become king.

...and I think that is the plan. LF is getting there slowly, and is willing to eject parts of it if he can get a short cut to it (ie., had Ned agreed to his suggestion in Game, there would have been no wotfk). 

 

[Greywater-Watch]

37 minutes ago, kimim said:

That would mean that a marriage to Sansa has to be a part of LF's plans. She is already the lady of WF. She can gain control over the Vale by marriage to Harry and a resulting child; Robin is obviously useless when it comes to creating heirs. Upon Harry's death, you think, LF plans to kill Harry as well? Sansa takes over the position that Lysa vacated. Married to her to who, Sansa?, LF remains lord of Harrenhal, in control of the Riverlands through food supplies For that he should hold Harrenhal first. He remains lord protector of the Vale why?? When Sweetrobin is dead, Harry is the heir, and he seems to be of age, hence LF would no longer be Lord Protector. He becomes lord of Winterfell. All of them would give him control over a giant swath of Westeros, and make him the most powerful lord of Westeros. At which point, one of his children could well become king or queen; he could become king.

 

 

[Hodor the Articulate]

6 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

LF says he wished he had more time when speaking of Cersei's mistakes in Kings Landing.  I think the plan was to get Sansa married to Harry, get Sansa with child, knock off Robert, then knock off Harry, then marry Sansa once again becoming Lord Protector of the Vale, only this time being married to the women he wants to be married to who he thinks can also bring him the North. 

Under those circumstances he could reasonably expect to control the North, Riverlands, and Vale.

 Marrying Sansa to Robert is the obvious move, but LF may hate Robert out of spite, his child was aborted but Robert got to live, and given his health he may worry that he won't survive anyway, or that perhaps he will not be fertile.  This makes Harry the safer option.

I see LF framing someone for Roberts murder just after Sansa and Harrys betrothal is a done deal.  Perhaps Corbray has outlived his usefulness, or perhaps LF is aware of Shadrichs true motive.

I've never cared for theories where Sansa marries Harry, then gains the Vale through his death, because it just doesn't work that way. But I  never considered adding a baby into the mix. She, an therefore LF, would be able to retain power that way, so I guess that makes sense. Still, it's a lot of murders to conduct. Won't people get (even more) suspicious that Arryn lords are dropping like flies?

[John Suburbs]

He'll offer Harry a big, fat dowry for Sansa, with the proviso that he (Littlefinger) gets lord's rights on their wedding night. That way, his child will grow to become both lord of the Vale and the North, and his seed will infuse the Stark and Arryn bloodlines, forever.

[coolsaladgirl93]

I think his end goal is to bring down feudalism. What he wants to replace it with is anybody's guess.

Littlefinger is one of the most intriguing characters in the series but I hate him for what he did to Jeyne Poole

[Greywater-Watch]

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He'll offer Harry a big, fat dowry for Sansa, with the proviso that he (Littlefinger) gets lord's rights on their wedding night. That way, his child will grow to become both lord of the Vale and the North, and his seed will infuse the Stark and Arryn bloodlines, forever.

The moment Robert Arryn ("Sweetrobin") dies, Harrold Hardyng (=Harry the Heir) instantly becomes "Lord of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn". And Littlefinger automatically loses his title as "Lord Protector of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn". So, in that moment his remaining titles are: Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. So, in terms of power, he is out of the game in the Vale then.

So you propose, Littlefinger, having no power left in the Vale, just turns the Vale into a brothel, and buys Sansa from Harry the Heir for the wedding night to plant his seed into Sansa and thus his genes into the Vale and Winterfell? Well, good strategy indeed....

[The Sleeper]

As per the Alayne sample chapter, he and the lords that are friendly to him, are hoarding food with the prospect of profiteering from it. As far as his political agenda goes I believe this is the one that is significant

Other than that, he wants to get into Sansa's pants and establish himself and his position in the Vale. Most of his scheming is aimed at keeping the Vale lords who are inimical to him from forming a unified front and build influence with them individually. Marrying Sansa to Harry is basically a repeat of the setup he had with Lysa and Jon Arryn. He wants as many inroads to people of power as he can get. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

13 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I've never cared for theories where Sansa marries Harry, then gains the Vale through his death, because it just doesn't work that way. But I  never considered adding a baby into the mix. She, an therefore LF, would be able to retain power that way, so I guess that makes sense. Still, it's a lot of murders to conduct. Won't people get (even more) suspicious that Arryn lords are dropping like flies?

I just don't see how else he retains control of the Vale.  Roberts death could easily look natural, or maybe Harry could even be framed for it bypassing him straight for his firstborn son.

The only other option is that the Vale is only temporary, a safe hiding place to let things continue to play out, and perhaps an army to use to conquer the north, and that ultimately he will let go of the Vale to establish a more secure hold on the Riverlands and North since Sansa and him can claim those both by right.

[The Lord Bastard]

According to Preston Jacobs he's trying to fulfill prophecy surrounding Harrenhal. 

I'm not sure I agree with much of the theory, except for the part about Harrenhal NOT being required to marry Lysa. Why would Littlefinger need a title just to marry Lysa? She's a grown woman, widowed, aging and in love with Littlefinger. She even murdered Jon Arryn at his behest.

[hitman47]

He wanted to be god

[BlueNightzx]

14 hours ago, coolsaladgirl93 said:

I think his end goal is to bring down feudalism. What he wants to replace it with is anybody's guess.

Littlefinger is one of the most intriguing characters in the series but I hate him for what he did to Jeyne Poole

i agree

littlefinger acts more like an italian prince than a feudal noble.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The moment Robert Arryn ("Sweetrobin") dies, Harrold Hardyng (=Harry the Heir) instantly becomes "Lord of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn". And Littlefinger automatically loses his title as "Lord Protector of the Eyrie and the Vale of Arryn". So, in that moment his remaining titles are: Lord of Harrenhal and Lord Paramount of the Riverlands. So, in terms of power, he is out of the game in the Vale then.

So you propose, Littlefinger, having no power left in the Vale, just turns the Vale into a brothel, and buys Sansa from Harry the Heir for the wedding night to plant his seed into Sansa and thus his genes into the Vale and Winterfell? Well, good strategy indeed....

Valar Morgulis, but bloodlines live forever.

Also, Lord is not the same as Lord Protector. Lord of the Eyrie is hereditary, while LP, Warden and other titles are bestowed by the king. Heck, even hereditary titles can be undone by the king. So even after the marriage, LF could still hold sway over the Eyrie as long as he keeps faith with the Iron Throne: as in, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands and Vale.

Then again, the Vale may be small potatoes as far as LF's scheming goes. By the time Sansa marries Harry -- if such a marriage actually takes place -- LF could control practically the entire realm.

[PCK]

I think he wants the North. I believe revenge on the Starks is one of his primary motivations. 

[Greywater-Watch]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So even after the marriage, LF could still hold sway over the Eyrie as long as he keeps faith with the Iron Throne

Which situation do you mean?

- A marriage between Sansa and Harry the Heir?

AND

- Sweetrobin dead.