NFL2016 Week 5: Somebody Needs A Bigger Locker

[Kalbear]

I'd have to spend more time looking at the numbers a bit, but off the top of my head why the three systems look different:

• 538 is almost entirely an ELO-based model, which means it starts out neutral, doesn't weigh anything worse or better other than wins, and then keeps going. It means it tends to be somewhat accurate later on, but it also means that it almost completely ignores, well, actual football-based things like stats or plays or beats. This tends to mean that their rankings look pretty much precisely like teams win-loss records.
• FO doesn't factor in the Brady suspension quite yet - but more importantly the first couple games with whats his face are the same as the last couple games with biscuit as far as their weight goes. And that means that loss to the Bills looks really, really atrocious. FO also in general doesn't deal with injuries particularly well, at least on their public stuff.
• PFF is just a pile of dicks as far as predictive ability goes.

[JonSnow4President]

13 minutes ago, briantw said:

This is basically the result of them letting two key components of their offensive line walk, and why they were likely wise to not invest a top pick in a QB who would have just gone out there and gotten murdered anyway.  On the plus side, they have a mountain of draft picks in a loaded 2017 draft and a boatload of cap space, so addressing the issues with their O-line shouldn't be impossible.

Too bad it's an absolutely crap year for Offensive Line picks.  No first rounders out of A&M for the first time in 5 years I think, and no other studs popping out.  I'm seeing several prospect rankings (admittedly early) with no offensive lineman inside the top 30 from a talent perspective (some will obviously be drafted higher than that).  In addition to the lack of top tier talent, I don't think there's much depth.  Definitely a good year to need a pass rusher though.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

• PFF is just a pile of dicks as far as predictive ability goes.

 You could do worse than a pile of Dick's.

 https://www.blackgate.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Philip-K-Dick-paperback-collection.jpg

[briantw]

4 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

Too bad it's an absolutely crap year for Offensive Line picks.  No first rounders out of A&M for the first time in 5 years I think, and no other studs popping out.  I'm seeing several prospect rankings (admittedly early) with no offensive lineman inside the top 30 from a talent perspective (some will obviously be drafted higher than that).  In addition to the lack of top tier talent, I don't think there's much depth.  Definitely a good year to need a pass rusher though.

Eh...the Browns need a bit of everything, and I'd prefer them not to waste a first rounder on an offensive lineman anyway.  Myles Garret seems to be the runaway choice if they get the first pick anyway, and they have enough picks that will enable them to move around in the draft if they see fit.

[JonSnow4President]

4 minutes ago, briantw said:

Eh...the Browns need a bit of everything, and I'd prefer them not to waste a first rounder on an offensive lineman anyway.  Myles Garret seems to be the runaway choice if they get the first pick anyway, and they have enough picks that will enable them to move around in the draft if they see fit.

There is no such thing as wasting a first rounder on an offense lineman IMO, given their impact on the entire offense (and if you get a good enough one, it can help the defense by keeping them off the field).  That is if they deserve the grade.  The Cowboys were ridiculed when they took Fredricks and Martin, and those guys are the reason they have made a playoff run and look like strong candidates this year.  

Garrett is an absolute freak, with one of the best attitudes I've seen (comparable with Watt in that specific regard, IMO).  As long as he doesn't suffer a freak injury, it's hard to see him busting.  Cleveland could find a way though. 

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, JonSnow4President said:

There is no such thing as wasting a first rounder on an offense lineman IMO, given their impact on the entire offense (and if you get a good enough one, it can help the defense by keeping them off the field).  That is if they deserve the grade.  The Cowboys were ridiculed when they took Fredricks and Martin, and those guys are the reason they have made a playoff run and look like strong candidates this year.  

Garrett is an absolute freak, with one of the best attitudes I've seen (comparable with Watt in that specific regard, IMO).  As long as he doesn't suffer a freak injury, it's hard to see him busting.  Cleveland could find a way though. 

Waste was the wrong word.  I just think the Browns have enough holes, especially on defense, that there are better uses for their first rounders.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

17 minutes ago, briantw said:

Eh...the Browns need a bit of everything, and I'd prefer them not to waste a first rounder on an offensive lineman anyway.  Myles Garret seems to be the runaway choice if they get the first pick anyway, and they have enough picks that will enable them to move around in the draft if they see fit.

What they need most is a new owner. 

[JonSnow4President]

1 minute ago, briantw said:

Waste was the wrong word.  I just think the Browns have enough holes, especially on defense, that there are better uses for their first rounders.

O-line makes the rest of your offense better, D-line makes the rest of your defense better.  I think that's where you start a rebuild, at least as a focus.  If a Julio Jones is available in the first, you take him though.

[Kalbear]

If that OLine player can't contribute more than 4 years, a 1st round pick is essentially wasted. While it's true that you can never have enough good OLinemen - especially on the cheap - it also is true that a 1st round pick's most valuable time is the first few years when  you're getting great performance at a cheap price. If you can't do that for whatever reason - notably you're not sure that they will be able to perform at a decent level - chances are good you should go elsewhere for your pick. 

The other issue is that much like linebacker, OLine prospects can be grabbed much later in the draft - whereas really good DE or DT or WR or QB or CB picks can't be. A great OT can have a huge impact - but look at someone like James Carpenter as an example of how a 1st round pick is a pretty big waste when they can't play. 

[Howdyphillip]

4 hours ago, JonSnow4President said:

O-line makes the rest of your offense better, D-line makes the rest of your defense better.  I think that's where you start a rebuild, at least as a focus.  If a Julio Jones is available in the first, you take him though.

 The lines are the most important part of the team. The offensive line is more important than a QB. Just ask Andrew Luck right now about that. If I were building a team, I would take a player like Tyrone Smith, or Zach Martin before taking a Julio Jones without hesitation. 

[JonSnow4President]

1 minute ago, Howdyphillip said:

 The lines are the most important part of the team. The offensive line is more important than a QB. Just ask Andrew Luck right now about that. If I were building a team, I would take a player like Tyrone Smith, or Zach Martin before taking a Julio Jones without hesitation. 

It all depends on what's available.  Smith plays premium, so I take him before (let's not forget he's an athletic freak, not an ultra-technician like a Joe Thomas, so I likely feel better about his potential pre-draft).  But a guard like Martin, I think I can probably find a good guard in rounds 2-3 most drafts, so I'll take super-freak WR. (Remember, we're only guessing at what players are becoming.  If I know I get Martin specifically, I probably do take ahead of Julio).

[sperry]

Surely the Browns are gonna draft a QB right? Not sure where that Eagles pick is going to end up falling, as that team has been weird so far. 2-1 against the dregs of the league, but absolutely murdered the Steelers.  I'm guessing they probably finish about 8-8, which means that pick is going to be a lot worse than it looked a couple weeks ago. Still, they should be able to pick up a good player with a mid first rounder.

[sperry]

1 hour ago, Howdyphillip said:

 The lines are the most important part of the team. The offensive line is more important than a QB. Just ask Andrew Luck right now about that. If I were building a team, I would take a player like Tyrone Smith, or Zach Martin before taking a Julio Jones without hesitation. 

lol

[JonSnow4President]

20 minutes ago, sperry said:

Surely the Browns are gonna draft a QB right? Not sure where that Eagles pick is going to end up falling, as that team has been weird so far. 2-1 against the dregs of the league, but absolutely murdered the Steelers.  I'm guessing they probably finish about 8-8, which means that pick is going to be a lot worse than it looked a couple weeks ago. Still, they should be able to pick up a good player with a mid first rounder.

Maybe maybe not.  The Browns are essentially an expansion team.  You really don't want to David Carr your QB.  You'd be much better served getting the line to at least serviceable.  I'm going solely on past experience here (maybe they're sucking, I don't watch the Browns much), but Thomas and Bitonio are set.  With Crowell, Coleman, and Pryor, drafting Kaiser/Watson, a mid first round caliber lineman, and a second/third round interior lineman likely means whatever QB at least stands a chance.  But it needs heavy investment now for sure.  If you're not planning to draft multiple linemen, I wouldn't touch a QB early this draft.

Now watch them Brown really hard and trade for Romo...

[briantw]

1 hour ago, sperry said:

Surely the Browns are gonna draft a QB right? Not sure where that Eagles pick is going to end up falling, as that team has been weird so far. 2-1 against the dregs of the league, but absolutely murdered the Steelers.  I'm guessing they probably finish about 8-8, which means that pick is going to be a lot worse than it looked a couple weeks ago. Still, they should be able to pick up a good player with a mid first rounder.

If the Browns pick first, I think they go best player available.  I can't see them passing on Myles Garrett if he's still the consensus number one pick come draft time, which he likely will be.  He looks like a generational talent.

I think they will draft a QB at some point, just not with the first pick.

[Jaime L]

9 hours ago, briantw said:

If the Browns pick first, I think they go best player available.  I can't see them passing on Myles Garrett if he's still the consensus number one pick come draft time, which he likely will be.  He looks like a generational talent.

I think they will draft a QB at some point, just not with the first pick.

But the risk is the Browns have done that before. In 2007 they took generational talent Joe Thomas #3 and then Brady Quinn at #22. In 2012 they took can't miss Trent Richardson #3 and Brandon Weeden at #22. And in 2014 they took Justin Gilbert #9 and Johnny Manziel....#22.

In general, I agree with the strategy you're talking about, but for the Browns if there's a legit, elite QB prospect they feel has a great chance to be a franchise guy...just take him. The Joe Thomas's of the world can only do so much and surethings to a surprising extent just aren't (i.e.: Trent Richardson, Jadaveon Clowney, Aaron Curry etc.) 

[Maithanet]

12 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

But the risk is the Browns have done that before. In 2007 they took generational talent Joe Thomas #3 and then Brady Quinn at #22. In 2012 they took can't miss Trent Richardson #3 and Brandon Weeden at #22. And in 2014 they took Justin Gilbert #9 and Johnny Manziel....#22.

In general, I agree with the strategy you're talking about, but for the Browns if there's a legit, elite QB prospect they feel has a great chance to be a franchise guy...just take him. The Joe Thomas's of the world can only do so much and surethings to a surprising extent just aren't (i.e.: Trent Richardson, Jadaveon Clowney, Aaron Curry etc.) 

But isn't that also the answer to the question?  The problem isn't that the Browns took Joe Thomas at #3, the problem is that most of the time they keep drafting shitty players.  The most important thing in the NFL draft is always that you get guys who can play.  Even if it isn't a premier position or you already have guys who can play at those positions, that's still the most important thing.  Taking three terrible quarterbacks #22 overall is part of the problem, but so is trading up to take Trent Richardson.  The Browns have had the luxury of top 10 picks in virtually every draft this century, and yet they still, year in and year out, have one of the least talented teams in the league. 

Until they can get at least average talent evaluation, they are never going to improve. 

[Jace, Extat]

15 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But isn't that also the answer to the question?  The problem isn't that the Browns took Joe Thomas at #3, the problem is that most of the time they keep drafting shitty players.  The most important thing in the NFL draft is always that you get guys who can play.  Even if it isn't a premier position or you already have guys who can play at those positions, that's still the most important thing.  Taking three terrible quarterbacks #22 overall is part of the problem, but so is trading up to take Trent Richardson.  The Browns have had the luxury of top 10 picks in virtually every draft this century, and yet they still, year in and year out, have one of the least talented teams in the league. 

Until they can get at least average talent evaluation, they are never going to improve. 

I am of the opinion that there are only a few top rated players in any draft who would never have panned out. I think 95% of players taken in the first round can be successful if they are developed properly, but the Browns sickness starts at the top, and infects everything below.

[Jaime L]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But isn't that also the answer to the question?  The problem isn't that the Browns took Joe Thomas at #3, the problem is that most of the time they keep drafting shitty players.  The most important thing in the NFL draft is always that you get guys who can play.  Even if it isn't a premier position or you already have guys who can play at those positions, that's still the most important thing.  Taking three terrible quarterbacks #22 overall is part of the problem, but so is trading up to take Trent Richardson.  The Browns have had the luxury of top 10 picks in virtually every draft this century, and yet they still, year in and year out, have one of the least talented teams in the league. 

Until they can get at least average talent evaluation, they are never going to improve. 

Not just top 10 picks, but multiple first rounders in as many years as anyone (including next year). Obviously the core issue is talent evaluation as a whole. But beyond that just think it's weird to repeat the "draft the surething first and pick the QB up on the sly later" strategy a 4th time in the last decade when it's 1/3 for the former and 0/3 for the latter. It's been 17 years since they took an elite QB prospect instead of the guy everyone passed on - in the words of Cheeto Jesus "what do you have to lose?" 

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Not just top 10 picks, but multiple first rounders in as many years as anyone (including next year). Obviously the core issue is talent evaluation as a whole. But beyond that just think it's weird to repeat the "draft the surething first and pick the QB up on the sly later" strategy a 4th time in the last decade when it's 1/3 for the former and 0/3 for the latter. It's been 17 years since they took an elite QB prospect instead of the guy everyone passed on - in the words of Cheeto Jesus "what do you have to lose?" 

I agree it is ridiculous that the Browns keep finding themselves in this position.  And if there is an elite prospect at qb, it wouldn't shock me if the Browns traded down again.  Draft capital and all that. 

I have often wondered what would happen if you had an NFL team that was only allowed to spend its 1st and 2nd round picks on front 7 defensive players and O linemen.  Somehow, I think that team could function just fine.  It might be tough filling some holes in the secondary and definitely at QB, but their O and D lines would be SOLID, and with that kind of foundation, everybody else is going to be able to develop.