US Elections: FBI. F-B-I... (Comey turns the ID the right way up) FBI.

[Week]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/3/1590674/-Latino-electorate-both-on-track-for-historic-turnout-and-routinely-undercounted-in-polls

Quote

 

One area where they have excelled at being reliably unreliable is in counting Latino voters, a voting bloc that is only growing stronger with each election cycle. Two states to keep an eye on this cycle to bring surprising results based on Latino turnout: Florida and Nevada. Here’s Nevada political guru Jon Ralston questioning the results of yesterday’s CNN/ORC poll showing Trump beating Clinton in Nevada 49% to 43%, with 5% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson.

Jon Ralston tweet: "I'm also puzzled -- and this happened before -- why CNN doesn't have big enough sample of Latinos to break them out in crosstabs. Red flag."

 

Thoughts from the more poll-knowledgeable folk among us?

[Mudguard]

5 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Article on vote swapping, where online swap meets have been set up to allow Clinton voters in safe states try and find a 3rd party voter in a safe state to agree to swap votes.

There has even been a federal court decision ruling the practice to be legal, from a case arising after the 2000 election.

Very interesting article.  I had no idea that this was allowed.  Seems borderline unethical to me to swap votes.  In effect, it allows a person to vote in a different state than they live, which is prohibited.  It also seems like the practice is highly susceptible to fraud.  I don't think there's really any way to guarantee that the person you are swapping votes with will actually follow through with the agreement.  

The 9th Circuit decision only is applicable to states under the jurisdiction of that court.  Apparently Minnesota and some other states have prohibited the practice.  I don't think the 9th Circuit ruling would be applicable in Minnesota and other states outside the jurisdiction of the 9th Circuit.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

27 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I think the Putin stuff perplexes me the most......he explicitly says "yea he's alright, I respect him, he's way better than our president"......how is this not political suicide in the US? I mean, I certainly don't think it's his worst opinion, but since when the fuck does sucking up to Russia not massively turn off republicans? The guy is bullet proof. I literally can't picture what will happen if he wins. I mean......seriously, what the fuck happens?

If you're saying it as a crack on Obama, you're bulletproof to many Conservatives. 

"He's not MY President".

[Chaircat Meow]

30 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I think the Putin stuff perplexes me the most......he explicitly says "yea he's alright, I respect him, he's way better than our president"......how is this not political suicide in the US? I mean, I certainly don't think it's his worst opinion, but since when the fuck does sucking up to Russia not massively turn off republicans? The guy is bullet proof. I literally can't picture what will happen if he wins. I mean......seriously, what the fuck happens?

Maybe Republicans just have enough brain cells to figure out that the cold war is over, following the collapse of communism, and that Russia is no longer the threat it was?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Just now, Chaircat Meow said:

Maybe Republicans just have enough brain cells to figure out that the cold war is over, following the collapse of communism, and that Russia is no longer the threat it was?

That's fair, but do you honestly believe that Putin is someone to be admired? We can be amenable to a better relationship with Russia, and Putin can still be a detestable strongman. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

[Castel]

4 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Rule # 1 with regard to Trump supporters, the Republican Party, in general, is that it usually spews mealy mouthed bullshit, whether we’re talking about issues concerning the ACA or the minimum wage.

Now, we all know, what really motivates many Republicans and Trump supporters – white resentment.

It's not just the GOP, I see this sort of navel-gazing and concern-trolling amongst liberals and people who have been driven from the liberal coalition to join alt-right groups mainly cause of social issues. They constantly hand-wring and push this sort of narrative, usually as a way to put down certain socially liberal policies they don't agree with. Reddit for example got incredibly obnoxious with the idea that this had anything to do with free speech on college campuses. Basically:"it's caused by anything liberals do that I don't agree with".

As I said,it's easier for a pundit to hold up some working class man who doesn't have a job  as the reason that Trump supporters don't give a fuck about his isms than it is to say that they just don't care or actually like it. Then they can act like they're some prophet offering insight to the blind libby libs.

As for positions: it seems like Trump hasn't been hammered anywhere near hard enough on his economic policy. If anything they've gotten worse four years out from Ryan and now he's seemingly getting away with it again.

[S John]

You'd think it would be a red flag that Russia clearly wants Trump to win, while all of our actual allies definitely would prefer Clinton.  I brought this up on a more conservative board and was basically told "Fuck NATO, we do what we want."

[Chaircat Meow]

3 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's fair, but do you honestly believe that Putin is someone to be admired? We can be amenable to a better relationship with Russia, and Putin can still be a detestable strongman. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Meh. He's better than most other Russian leaders, historically speaking.

[Kalbear]

14 minutes ago, Week said:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/3/1590674/-Latino-electorate-both-on-track-for-historic-turnout-and-routinely-undercounted-in-polls

Thoughts from the more poll-knowledgeable folk among us?

It's certainly the case that they're undercounted. The bigger issue is that they aren't in the right states in the right amounts to make a particularly large effect on the election. As an example, if every single hispanic/latino voter voted democrat and 100% voted, you would have Texas, Arizona flip. And that's it. Texas is certainly a big 'get', but this assumes 100% Democrat support and 100% of the population. And right now? Hispanics vote about 50% of the time, and vote 75% Democrat.  

By comparison, if you did the same thing for the AA vote you'd have Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Carolinas, and even Nebraska all flip. 

Where it might matter more is in state elections, but it just isn't critical in the same way. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Just now, Chaircat Meow said:

Meh. He's better than most other Russian leaders, historically speaking.

Yeah, and Jack the Ripper was nowhere near as prolific as many modern serial killers. Not sure the comparison matters a whole hell of a lot in terms of looking to praise the man. 

[Tywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, S John said:

You'd think it would be a red flag that Russia clearly wants Trump to win, while all of our actual allies definitely would prefer Clinton.  I brought this up on a more conservative board and was basically told "Fuck NATO, we do what we want."

I don't think they clearly want Trump to win, they want for there to be chaos within our politics. I bet their dream scenario would be for a very narrow, contentious victory for Clinton. 

[S John]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

I don't think they clearly want Trump to win, they want for there to be chaos within our politics. I bet their dream scenario would be for a very narrow, contentious victory for Clinton. 

Maybe, but Trump has been running around saying our allies need to 'pay up' like we're running some kinda fucking mafia protection racket.  He could very easily piss everyone off and weaken NATO in a way that Clinton certainly wouldn't, and that helps Russia if they are in an expandin' mood.  

[Chaircat Meow]

4 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Yeah, and Jack the Ripper was nowhere near as prolific as many modern serial killers. Not sure the comparison matters a whole hell of a lot in terms of looking to praise the man. 

Easy to say if you are a big fat Yank who has two oceans between him and every other potential invader in the world. Russia has not been so fortunate.  

[Ormond]

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's certainly the case that they're undercounted. The bigger issue is that they aren't in the right states in the right amounts to make a particularly large effect on the election. As an example, if every single hispanic/latino voter voted democrat and 100% voted, you would have Texas, Arizona flip. And that's it. Texas is certainly a big 'get', but this assumes 100% Democrat support and 100% of the population. And right now? Hispanics vote about 50% of the time, and vote 75% Democrat.  

By comparison, if you did the same thing for the AA vote you'd have Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Carolinas, and even Nebraska all flip. 

Where it might matter more is in state elections, but it just isn't critical in the same way. 

Uh, Kalbear, the census bureau's latest figures have Nebraska only 5% African-American, and even if you add in ALL of those who are "two or more races" to that you only get up to 7.1%. That certainly is not enough to get the whole state's votes to flip to the Democrats. Since the Black population here is heavily concentrated in the Second Congressional District, maybe that would "flip" that one electoral vote, but there is no way it would do so statewide. 

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, S John said:

Maybe, but Trump has been running around saying our allies need to 'pay up' like we're running some kinda fucking mafia protection racket.  He could very easily piss everyone off and weaken NATO in a way that Clinton certainly wouldn't, and that helps Russia if they are in an expandin' mood.  

That's absolutely true, but there are other risks for Russia with a Trump presidency. There's no risk for them if they just blow up our internal politics.

I mean really, who here doesn't believe that Trump will in some way trigger a global economic meltdown? 

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Uh, Kalbear, the census bureau's latest figures have Nebraska only 5% African-American, and even if you add in ALL of those who are "two or more races" to that you only get up to 7.1%. That certainly is not enough to get the whole state's votes to flip to the Democrats. Since the Black population here is heavily concentrated in the Second Congressional District, maybe that would "flip" that one electoral vote, but there is no way it would do so statewide. 

Sorry, that's correct. I misread the chart. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

4 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Easy to say if you are a big fat Yank who has two oceans between him and every other potential invader in the world. Russia has not been so fortunate.  

Canada kicked our ass once, it could happen again. And what the fuck are you on about anyways? You live on a fucking Island, no?

[Jasta11]

18 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Meh. He's better than most other Russian leaders, historically speaking.

Considering Russia's history, that's not what I'd call high praise.

[BloodRider]

19 hours ago, Altherion said:

Well yes, but most of those comments go much further than what I'm capable of.

Deporting people, building a wall and removing ACA all require cooperation from Congress which he's not likely to get. Going after Clinton is kind of pointless after the election is over. She is 69 years old and she will never have an opponent as disliked as Trump. If she loses, it is extremely unlikely that she will ever be this influential again even if nobody goes after her. I suppose he might do it anyway just out of spite, but I doubt the case will be pressed very hard.

ITS STILL HIS FUCKING POSITION NO MATTER WHAT YOU CLAIM YOU HAVE THE POWER TO MAKE CONGRESS DO, YOU DUPE.

I am so fucking tired of being told that shit that is right in front of my face is not there.  Trump is a liar, and Altherion is too.  No word on if they have the self awareness to know if they are fooling themselves, lying with full knowledge they are lying, or some combo of both.

[mormont]

15 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Easy to say if you are a big fat Yank who has two oceans between him and every other potential invader in the world. Russia has not been so fortunate.  

So you're looking at recent events in the Russian sphere of influence and somehow concluding that it's the Russians who're vulnerable to invasion?

Yes, the Cold War is over. It's been over for a generation. At present, Russia doesn't present as big a threat to US interests as it did during the Cold War... but it does present a bigger threat than it has done at any time since the end of the Cold War.