NBA 2017: The Kings of Comedy

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The Wizards have no chance against GS in a 7 game series.  Beal and Wall are damn good, and could maybe counter Curry/Thompson (maybe).  But Porter and Morris vs Durant and Green?  Don't even joke, that's never gonna happen, they are completely outmatched. 

As for the Celtics, I haven't seen as much of them this year, but I think they're kind of overachieving for their talent because Stevens is a great coach.  They don't have the horses to run with the Warriors.  Thomas will put no pressure on Curry whatsoever, and without him the Celtics can't score. 

I think if it is anybody but the Cavs, it'll be GS in 5.  Hell, assuming GS is mostly healthy, I think it'll be GS is 5 against the Cavs too. 

I'm not sure it's safe to anoint GS as the Kings of the West. This team is not as good defensively as they were in years past. I have a feeling this is going to show, especially late into the playoffs.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'm not sure it's safe to anoint GS as the Kings of the West. This team is not as good defensively as they were in years past. I have a feeling this is going to show, especially late into the playoffs.

I agree, an upset in the west is possible, and a lot more likely than in the Finals.  If it turn out its the Spurs or Rockets, the East would have a better chance, but still be significant underdogs. 

[DunderMifflin]

18 minutes ago, sperry said:

 

I think he's an all-star if he shoots like he did last season, but everything else in his playing career indicates that is an anomaly. He would definitely be a valuable addition to any team, at least if he could cut his nonsense act. That works when you're playing for a team having one of the greatest runs in NBA history. Not so much if you're playing for Charlotte or Denver or something.

I think he's a poor man's Dennis Rodman which is still a pretty good thing to have.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

7 minutes ago, DunderMifflin said:

I think he's a poor man's Dennis Rodman which is still a pretty good thing to have.

I'd put them on an almost even keel. Green is a better scorer and Rodman was a better rebounder. I think their defensive skills are mostly a wash. Good comparison though. Similar personalities, for sure.

[Maithanet]

Man, Cleveland has been even worse than I realized for the second half of this season.  Since Jan 1, they've gone 24-20.  Against the 8 other good teams in the league (those with 45+ wins at the moment), they have been 2-8 in that period. 

They've still got regular season games against Boston and Toronto, and rather than resting guys for the playoffs, they might need to actually show they can beat quality teams.  Which is not something you want to be saying about a team getting ready for a Finals run. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'd put them on an almost even keel. Green is a better scorer and Rodman was a better rebounder. I think their defensive skills are mostly a wash. Good comparison though. Similar personalities, for sure.

Green is absolutely the better player. He so much more versatile and can do just about anything you need him to. Rodman was a great glue guy, but he doesn't offer nearly as much on offense while being as you said, a wash defensively with Green.

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Man, Cleveland has been even worse than I realized for the second half of this season.  Since Jan 1, they've gone 24-20.  Against the 8 other good teams in the league (those with 45+ wins at the moment), they have been 2-8 in that period. 

They've still got regular season games against Boston and Toronto, and rather than resting guys for the playoffs, they might need to actually show they can beat quality teams.  Which is not something you want to be saying about a team getting ready for a Finals run. 

I know 538's reputation took a shot after the election, but it's stunning how low they rate the chances of the Cavs winning the title this year:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

TL:DR It's only at 2% and there are 6 teams ahead of them. 

Also, no teams ranked 22 or worse on defense for the season have won a title, and only one team has ever reached the finals with that woeful level of defensive production. I still believe LeBron can flip a switch and raise his game, but I don't have that same faith for anyone else on the Cavs. 

[sperry]

When your model is giving a team with LeBron James a 2% chance of winning, you might want to take a closer look at the assumptions in your model.

[Ramsay B.]

Bulls have weirdly won 4 straight and everyone else is losing so they have jolted into the 7 seed. At this point they'll play Cavs first round (who they are 4-0 against this year). This is all kind of annoying since I will probably just be forced to watch Lebron eliminate them once again. 

1 hour ago, sperry said:

When your model is giving a team with LeBron James a 2% chance of winning, you might want to take a closer look at the assumptions in your model.

Agree.

[briantw]

13 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Always?  Or sometimes?  Because it's not like he swept away the 2011 Mavs or 2014 Spurs or 2015 Warriors.  And in every one of those cases, his team was playing better at the end of the year than the Cavs are now. 

I'd say the Mavs loss is really the only one that's on him.  In 2014 Wade and Bosh just gave him nothing in the Finals, and in 2015 Kyrie and Love were both out and there's only so much you can do with a group of role-players.  I thought LeBron should have won Finals MVP in 2015, because he was clearly the best player on the court.  He was just unfortunate enough to have his two best teammates hurt, and we saw what a difference Kyrie made in 2016.

[Jaime L]

12 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

I'm not sure it's safe to anoint GS as the Kings of the West. This team is not as good defensively as they were in years past. I have a feeling this is going to show, especially late into the playoffs.

The thing is no-one defends like they used to except the Spurs and the Jazz. The Cavs are way worse. The Wizards can't defend their way out of a paper bag anymore. Every contending team in the East is scoring 5 PPG more than last year and gives up that much more in turn. Quality defense is a different standard now. 

This is a radically different league from even 2-3 years ago. Your team started the revolution but now everyone who matters plays some form of it. And the only ones who seem able to slow it down at all are those with legit DPOY candidates. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

8 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

The thing is no-one defends like they used to except the Spurs and the Jazz. The Cavs are way worse. The Wizards can't defend their way out of a paper bag anymore. Every contending team in the East is scoring 5 PPG more than last year and gives up that much more in turn. Quality defense is a different standard now. 

This is a radically different league from even 2-3 years ago. Your team started the revolution but now everyone who matters plays some form of it. And the only ones who seem able to slow it down at all are those with legit DPOY candidates. 

True, but I feel like a team that can play shutdown defense can take advantage of that. I'm not sure the Spurs are doing that consistently, but I can tell you the Warriors sure as hell aren't.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 hours ago, sperry said:

When your model is giving a team with LeBron James a 2% chance of winning, you might want to take a closer look at the assumptions in your model.

The point is to highlight how vulnerable the Cavs are right now. 

[sperry]

25 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The point is to highlight how vulnerable the Cavs are right now. 

 

I'm just thinking we've seen this story before, and LeBron has made a career of taking much worse teams to the finals.

[DunderMifflin]

I think Rodman was notably better defensively than Green. He was a better athlete than Green especially for his time. He's a hall of famer for a reason and it sure ain't scoring.
I just think their styles are similiar, they both have superhigh motors that give you a lot of things that aren't going to show up in the stat sheet. Diving for loose balls, annoying opponents, hard fouls at the right time, etc etc.

[Calibandar]

22 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I agree, an upset in the west is possible, and a lot more likely than in the Finals.  If it turn out its the Spurs or Rockets, the East would have a better chance, but still be significant underdogs. 

I'm not feeling this at all. I don't see anyone with a genuine chance against Golden State.

Especially not with Durant back. Or should I say, despite Durant being back, because they don't even seem to need him.

No, Golden State is coming out of the west.

[Michael Seswatha Jordan]

On 4/3/2017 at 10:11 AM, Maithanet said:

Always?  Or sometimes?  Because it's not like he swept away the 2011 Mavs or 2014 Spurs or 2015 Warriors.  And in every one of those cases, his team was playing better at the end of the year than the Cavs are now. 

@briantw, outlined pretty much what I came to say. But, more than that, I don't see anyone in the East that'll beat the Cavs in a series. And, im not counting out  LeBron after the last 2 finals. 

[briantw]

3 hours ago, Michael Seswatha Jordan said:

@briantw, outlined pretty much what I came to say. But, more than that, I don't see anyone in the East that'll beat the Cavs in a series. And, im not counting out  LeBron after the last 2 finals. 

I always find it funny when people cite LeBron's Finals record but ignore the context behind it.  

That team he took to the Finals in 2007 was probably the worst NBA Finals team ever.  That team might not have won ten games without LeBron.  It was godawful.  The fact that they made the Finals at all was a fucking miracle, and a testament to how good LeBron is.  He single-handedly destroyed that Pistons team and forced them into a rebuild.

In 2011, LeBron clearly choked.  That one is all on him.

In 2014, the loss was obviously on Wade and Bosh.  Wade fell apart and Bosh was the disappearing man.  The dude was seven feet tall and couldn't even grab rebounds to help his team.  LeBron's Finals stats in 2014 are absolutely insane, though.  28-8-4 on 57% FG shooting and 52% three point shooting.  Somehow, LeBron played that well and they still gave the Finals MVP to the guy defending him.  

In 2015, LeBron's shooting percentages are pretty poor in the Finals, but I'd say that's more because his two best teammates were hurt and the Warriors were able to constantly double team him due to the Cavs' lack of depth due to those major injuries.  LeBron still put up a 36-13-9 stat line and won two games, and once again the main guy defending him, not the league MVP who was also in the series, won Finals MVP.

When you look at the individual Finals series, 2011 is pretty obviously the only one that you can actually pin on LeBron as his fault the team lost.  He choked in that one, and honestly it was probably for the best given that I think he needed a loss to be blamed on him to change his attitude and force him to mature.  In 2007 he was able to blame his shitty teammates, but in 2011 it all fell on him and he had to own it.

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

I always find it funny when people cite LeBron's Finals record but ignore the context behind it.  

That team he took to the Finals in 2007 was probably the worst NBA Finals team ever.  That team might not have won ten games without LeBron.  It was godawful.  The fact that they made the Finals at all was a fucking miracle, and a testament to how good LeBron is.  He single-handedly destroyed that Pistons team and forced them into a rebuild.

In 2011, LeBron clearly choked.  That one is all on him.

In 2014, the loss was obviously on Wade and Bosh.  Wade fell apart and Bosh was the disappearing man.  The dude was seven feet tall and couldn't even grab rebounds to help his team.  LeBron's Finals stats in 2014 are absolutely insane, though.  28-8-4 on 57% FG shooting and 52% three point shooting.  Somehow, LeBron played that well and they still gave the Finals MVP to the guy defending him.  

In 2015, LeBron's shooting percentages are pretty poor in the Finals, but I'd say that's more because his two best teammates were hurt and the Warriors were able to constantly double team him due to the Cavs' lack of depth due to those major injuries.  LeBron still put up a 36-13-9 stat line and won two games, and once again the main guy defending him, not the league MVP who was also in the series, won Finals MVP.

When you look at the individual Finals series, 2011 is pretty obviously the only one that you can actually pin on LeBron as his fault the team lost.  He choked in that one, and honestly it was probably for the best given that I think he needed a loss to be blamed on him to change his attitude and force him to mature.  In 2007 he was able to blame his shitty teammates, but in 2011 it all fell on him and he had to own it.

By pretty much any rubric...per, WS, WS/48, Vorp, traditional stats...LBJ's team was significantly better than Hakeem's first championship squad. I mean, the second scorer (Maxwell) was not only insane, but had a negative OWS...or if you prefer traditional stats, his fg% was .389...on 21.4 usg, for god's sake. Rockets 2nd highest PER would be 3rd or 4th on Cavs, and then the real gap opens up: 3rd highest Rocket would be 7th on Cavs.

[briantw]

5 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

By pretty much any rubric...per, WS, WS/48, Vorp, traditional stats...LBJ's team was significantly better than Hakeem's first championship squad. I mean, the second scorer (Maxwell) was not only insane, but had a negative OWS...or if you prefer traditional stats, his fg% was .389...on 21.4 usg, for god's sake. Rockets 2nd highest PER would be 3rd or 4th on Cavs, and then the real gap opens up: 3rd highest Rocket would be 7th on Cavs.

Yeah, but that's also kind of ignoring that LeBron made all of those guys look better than they actually were.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

We need a new thread peoples. Any title ideas?