The Illyrio/Aegon thing

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we do know that according to Illyrio and Yandel there are still Blackfyres around through the female line.

That is not what they say. Both state that Maelys was the last of Daemon's descendents through the male line. Neither refer to the female line. They do not say that there are still descendents through the female line left alive. Nor do they say that such a line has gone extinct.

So both statements allow for the possibility of a female line still existing. But none of the statements confirm it. An important difference.

[Crona]

43 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

The whole idea of these two individuals setting up a twenty year long plan to install a king in a another continent is hard to believe to begin with. And yet they have.

That is why I am assuming personal motivation. 

Varys is just too confusing to me to make any concrete theory. That’s why I think I’m going to wait for the books to find out.

I did think for a while that maybe Varys was loyal to Elia and that’s why he favored Aegon. But if he was then he would have told Doran 

[Lord Varys]

12 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That is not what they say. Both state that Maelys was the last of Daemon's descendents through the male line. Neither refer to the female line. They do not say that there are still descendents through the female line left alive. Nor do they say that such a line has gone extinct.

So both statements allow for the possibility of a female line still existing. But none of the statements confirm it. An important difference.

Since we do know that there is a Blackfyre female line (because Daemon Blackfyre did have daughters) this is an implicit confirmation that there was a female line and that it is still around as far as these people know. Else they would have said House Blackfyre died with Maelys Blackfyre. After all, if the female branches of House Blackfyre had died out before Maelys' death ended the male branch of House Blackfyre, House Blackfyre would have died on the Stepstones.

And then the people in the know - especially Illyrio, but also Yandel - would have mentioned that.

[Bael's Bastard]

12 hours ago, bent branch said:

Although people still seem to be big on the Aegon as Blackfyre thing, I think this information shakes the theory at it's very core.

13 hours ago, bent branch said:

The Bittersteel/Calla marriage was literally the best possible Blackfyre tie for Aegon. With that gone there is really nothing left.

This information doesn't affect the heart of the theory at all.

What gave us reason to believe that there could still be Blackfyre descendants alive today in the first place was Illyrio's revelation that the death of Maelys, forty years ago, brought an end to the male line of House Blackfyre.

At the time we didn't even know that Daemon had a daughter, let alone multiple daughters, or that one of those daughters had been betrothed to Bittersteel. We didn't learn any of that until TWOIAF, years later.

Hypothetical children of Bittersteel/Calla were never essential to the heart of the theory, though some integrated that into their versions of the theory.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

At the time we didn't even know that Daemon had a daughter, let alone multiple daughters, or that one of those daughters had been betrothed to Bittersteel. We didn't learn any of that until TWOIAF, years later.

We do learn about the existence of Blackfyre daughters in TMK, I seem to recall. Calla Blackfyre is just the only Blackfyre daughter that got a name.

[The Sleeper]

19 minutes ago, Crona said:

Varys is just too confusing to me to make any concrete theory. That’s why I think I’m going to wait for the books to find out.

I did think for a while that maybe Varys was loyal to Elia and that’s why he favored Aegon. But if he was then he would have told Doran 

For all we know, all this is irrelevant to the Blackfyre and it is the Toynes we should be looking at. After all there are many more references to the Kingswood brotherhood than to the Blackfyres in the main series and it was Myles Toyne who recruited Connington and made the pact with Illyrio. As a family they would bear a grudge against the Targaryens going back to Aegon the Unworthy. 

[Bael's Bastard]

55 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That is not what they say. Both state that Maelys was the last of Daemon's descendents through the male line. Neither refer to the female line. They do not say that there are still descendents through the female line left alive. Nor do they say that such a line has gone extinct.

So both statements allow for the possibility of a female line still existing. But none of the statements confirm it. An important difference.

The statements imply that Maelys wasn't the last descendant of Daemon Blackfyre, otherwise it would be pointless to make the distinction. Now, that was forty years ago, so it doesn't mean that post-Maelys descendants of Daemon exist today, but we have good reason to believe they do.

[Bael's Bastard]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We do learn about the existence of Blackfyre daughters in TMK, I seem to recall.

I don't recall that, but I'd be glad to be shown to be in error if you can show me where.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't recall that, but I'd be glad to be shown to be in error if you can show me where.

I'm without texts right now. But isn't the quote about Daemon having seven sons and daughters, too, from either TSS or TMK? I really seem to recall we talked about Daemon's daughters long before TWoIaF came out.

[Bael's Bastard]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm without texts right now. But isn't the quote about Daemon having seven sons and daughters, too, from either TSS or TMK? I really seem to recall we talked about Daemon's daughters long before TWoIaF came out.

The seven sons are mentioned in TMK, but I don't see a reference to daughters until TWOIAF.

""His hands are scarlet with a brother's blood, and the blood of his young nephews too," the hunchback had declared to the crowd that had gathered in the market square. "A shadow came at his command to strangle brave Prince Valarr's sons in their mother's womb. Where is our Young Prince now? Where is his brother, sweet Matarys? Where has Good King Daeron gone, and fearless Baelor Breakspear? The grave has claimed them, every one, yet he endures, this pale bird with bloody beak who perches on King Aerys's shoulder and caws into his ear. The mark of hell is on his face and in his empty eye, and he has brought us drought and pestilence and murder. Rise up, I say, and remember our true king across the water. Seven gods there are, and seven kingdoms, and the Black Dragon sired seven sons! Rise up, my lords and ladies. Rise up, you brave knights and sturdy yeomen, and cast down Bloodraven, that foul sorcerer, lest your children and your children's children be cursed forever-more." Every word was treason. Even so, it was a shock to see him here, with holes where his eyes had been. "That's him, aye," Dunk said, "and another good reason to put this town behind us." He gave Thunder a touch of the spur, and he and Egg rode through the gates of Stoney Sept, listening to the soft sound of the rain. How many eyes does Lord Bloodraven have? the riddle ran. A thousand eyes, and one. Some claimed the King's Hand was a student of the dark arts who could change his face, put on the likeness of a one-eyed dog, even turn into a mist. Packs of gaunt gray wolves hunted down his foes, men said, and carrion crows spied for him and whispered secrets in his ear. Most of the tales were only tales, Dunk did not doubt, but no one could doubt that Bloodraven had informers everywhere." (TMK)

""I never claimed I was." Daemon. The name rang in Dunk's head. Not John. Daemon, after his father. Dunk the lunk, thick as a castle wall. "Daemon Blackfyre sired seven sons. Two died upon the Redgrass Field, twins—"" (TMK)

"The seeds of rebellion had been planted, but it took years for them to bear fruit. There was no final insult, no great wrong, that led Daemon Blackfyre to turn against King Daeron. If it was truly all for the love of Daenerys, how is it that eight years passed before the rebellion bloomed? That was a long time to harbor thwarted love, especially when Rohanne had already given him seven sons and daughters besides, and Daenerys had also borne Prince Maron several heirs." (TWOIAF)

So the total number of sons of Daemon were mentioned a little over a year before ADWD came out, but the daughters do not appear to have been mentioned for over four years after TMK, and three years after ADWD.

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

So Varys and Illyrio made a plan to go to Westeros and undermine the regime from with in? Then got lucky in that Rhaegar and Elia, who no one could have predicted Rhaegar marrying, have a kid. Who just happens to be of an age with a kid Illyrio just happened to have at the same time. Then just decided to go that route instead? That is some extreme luck and coincidence. And a weak plan A. Their plan B sounds really flimsy too. As it involves Varys starting a rebellion he actually tried to avoid. Then some how plan on the Mountain murdering both kids. So you can make a supposed surprise, Aegon is still alive reveal 15 years later with your secret Blackfyre.

That is quite the reach of circumstances but i guess it could happen. If the Golden Company wanna go home, and all Blackfyres are dead. Following a Targaryen seems like the only thing to do imo. 
 

Though it does make me wonder about Roberts Rebellion and why the Golden Company stayed out of it. Why not message Robert and mention that you got some Blackfyre lying around? Lets marry up and rock Westeros. House Baratheon and House Blackfyre uniting for the throne. Sounds legit. Both are bastard branches. Would Robert have considered a Blackfyre bride?

The George did not have the Blackfyre worked out before Clash, but he clearly had the ambiguous hidden prince in mind from the beginning. I would submit that assuming Aegon actually is the son of Rhaegar is actually more complicated than the alternative. The only way I can reconcile the issue of Varys coming to King's Landing before Robert's Rebellion is to assume that Varys had gone to destabilize Aerys's rule for the benefit of Illyrio himself. Although the George did not have Illyrio's descent worked out (unless it was originally through Aerion, and he decided to change it as he wrote Clash), it is quite possible (likely in my opinion) that he was always going to have some familial relationship among Varys, Illyrio, and the ambiguous hidden prince. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Errm no. Assuming that Varys and Illyrio are connected with the Blackfyres, they could have just begun laying the groundwork for a more run of the mill rebellion like the five that preceded it. Robert's rebellion happened first and the mutilation of baby Aegon's head gave them the idea of passing off Illurio's son as Rhaegar's who was more or less the right age. People have children, it is not that much of coincidence. I'm going of the assumption that Illyrio's wife Serra is of Blackfyre descent. If you think about it the Valyrian features were not an absolute requirement as Aegon died as an infant and his mother was Dornish. They could have claimed that he changed as he grew older. 

The rest is a matter of waiting for and creating the right circumstance. 

Why the fuck would Robert consider a Blackfyre bride? That is random. 

And Pycelle inadvertently gives us the reason the original plan might have been scrapped when he told Tyrion that Tywin could not seize the throne himself because Robert was too strong and the Ned was too quick. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Crona said:

Varys is just too confusing to me to make any concrete theory. That’s why I think I’m going to wait for the books to find out.

I did think for a while that maybe Varys was loyal to Elia and that’s why he favored Aegon. But if he was then he would have told Doran 

Would he have said anything to Doran? Oberyn was already looking to raise Dorne to put Viserys on the throne. For all intents, Viserys was very much expandable for Varys, but Aegon is not. Oberyn/Doran were already making these plans for Viserys and Dany. Would it have been that much different with Aegon if they knew he was hypothetically still alive? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

The whole idea of these two individuals setting up a twenty year long plan to install a king in a another continent is hard to believe to begin with. And yet they have.

That is why I am assuming personal motivation. 

That's why I finally accepted the Blackfyre theory, and why I determined that Illyrio had to be the Blackfyre. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That is not what they say. Both state that Maelys was the last of Daemon's descendents through the male line. Neither refer to the female line. They do not say that there are still descendents through the female line left alive. Nor do they say that such a line has gone extinct.

So both statements allow for the possibility of a female line still existing. But none of the statements confirm it. An important difference.

Yeap, and one that makes the hidden prince and ambiguous hidden prince. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Since we do know that there is a Blackfyre female line (because Daemon Blackfyre did have daughters) this is an implicit confirmation that there was a female line and that it is still around as far as these people know. Else they would have said House Blackfyre died with Maelys Blackfyre. After all, if the female branches of House Blackfyre had died out before Maelys' death ended the male branch of House Blackfyre, House Blackfyre would have died on the Stepstones.

And then the people in the know - especially Illyrio, but also Yandel - would have mentioned that.

 

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The statements imply that Maelys wasn't the last descendant of Daemon Blackfyre, otherwise it would be pointless to make the distinction. Now, that was forty years ago, so it doesn't mean that post-Maelys descendants of Daemon exist today, but we have good reason to believe they do.

In a society the male line is considered as important as it is here, the fact that the Blackfyre name died out with Maelys (which is what the death of the last person of the male line means), I don't consider it odd that this would be how they phrase it.

I do not consider this confirmation that a female line still exists. 

That said, I do believe that the chances that, in the 104 years since their exile, the Blackfyres did not intermarry and branched off, is quite small. Five males went into exile, four of whom either had children (issue confirmed) or might have had children (issue unconfirmed). Although it is possible they did not have any ((great-)grand)daughters, chances are that at least one did. And besides that, at least two daughters, perhaps more, went into exile. The chance that each and everyone of them died childless is rather small.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We do learn about the existence of Blackfyre daughters in TMK, I seem to recall. Calla Blackfyre is just the only Blackfyre daughter that got a name.

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't recall that, but I'd be glad to be shown to be in error if you can show me where.

From TMK:

Lord Bloodraven looked up from his parchment. "That is for King Aerys to decide… but Daemon has four younger brothers, and sisters as well. Should I be so foolish as to remove his pretty head, his mother will mourn, his friends will curse me for a kinslayer, and Bittersteel will crown his brother Haegon. 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

8 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

So Varys and Illyrio made a plan to go to Westeros and undermine the regime from within?

Which is what Varys did. He was the one who fueled Aerys' paranoia by pointing out traitors at court, including Rhaegar. This would push Aerys to name the mad Viserys as his heir, which would further distabilize the Targaryen rule.

[Bael's Bastard]

32 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

In a society the male line is considered as important as it is here, the fact that the Blackfyre name died out with Maelys (which is what the death of the last person of the male line means), I don't consider it odd that this would be how they phrase it.

I do not consider this confirmation that a female line still exists. 

It is very odd wording if it is intending to say that the last of Daemon's line perished with Maelys. It could be that the last of Daemon's descendants died the next day. It could be that the last of Daemon's descendants died at any time in the last forty years. But the wording by Illyrio and Yandel implies that Daemon's line did not end with Maelys. It does not confirm that a female line still exists today. But it implies that a female line existed after the death of Maelys.

37 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

From TMK:

Lord Bloodraven looked up from his parchment. "That is for King Aerys to decide… but Daemon has four younger brothers, and sisters as well. Should I be so foolish as to remove his pretty head, his mother will mourn, his friends will curse me for a kinslayer, and Bittersteel will crown his brother Haegon. 

Great, thanks! 

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Which is what Varys did. He was the one who fueled Aerys' paranoia by pointing out traitors at court, including Rhaegar. This would push Aerys to name the mad Viserys as his heir, which would further distabilize the Targaryen rule.

That is not proven as such. Varys came after Duskendale, and we have no clear enough picture about the traitors Varys pointed to conclude they were, in fact, innocent. Rhaegar was not, that's clear. He seems to have entertained the notion to depose or limit the powers of his royal father.

In that sense, Varys may have just done his job, being blamed for all the rot at Aerys' court because he was a foreigner and a eunuch whereas the real reason for why things went the way they did was Aerys II and his paranoia.

37 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

In a society the male line is considered as important as it is here, the fact that the Blackfyre name died out with Maelys (which is what the death of the last person of the male line means), I don't consider it odd that this would be how they phrase it.

The way one would phrase it is that House X died out when the last male member of that house died. Women don't count, especially not if they have married already into other families. Was Larys Strong truly the last Strong, or where there female line Strongs still around? Did the Lothstons die out in the female line with the last Lothston, or are there female line Lothstons still around in the Tullys, Mallisters, Blackwoods, Brackens, etc. they married their daughters to? We don't know.

In that sense it is very odd that people knowing stuff limit themselves to the male line there.

37 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

From TMK:

Lord Bloodraven looked up from his parchment. "That is for King Aerys to decide… but Daemon has four younger brothers, and sisters as well. Should I be so foolish as to remove his pretty head, his mother will mourn, his friends will curse me for a kinslayer, and Bittersteel will crown his brother Haegon. 

Yeah, that is it. I did remember that it comes around the passage we first learn about Haegon.

[Crona]

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

For all we know, all this is irrelevant to the Blackfyre and it is the Toynes we should be looking at. After all there are many more references to the Kingswood brotherhood than to the Blackfyres in the main series and it was Myles Toyne who recruited Connington and made the pact with Illyrio. As a family they would bear a grudge against the Targaryens going back to Aegon the Unworthy. 

I will be honest I don’t know much of the Toynes nor the Kingswood brotherhood but it is interesting nonetheless.

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Would he have said anything to Doran? Oberyn was already looking to raise Dorne to put Viserys on the throne. For all intents, Viserys was very much expandable for Varys, but Aegon is not. Oberyn/Doran were already making these plans for Viserys and Dany. Would it have been that much different with Aegon if they knew he was hypothetically still alive? 

I would think if Doran would have knew Aegon was alive then he would have supported him rather than try to work things out with Dany and Viserys. 

However, Doran didn’t even give Viserys much support either so I really am not sure.