US Politics: Red, Red Whine

[Kalbear]

6 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I doubt Collins will face any significant blowback from this.  She isn't up for reelection until 2020 and she easily won in 2014 (68.5% to 31.5%).  

Different environment, and it's during an election year of a potentially very unpopular POTUS. Right now she's already facing something like a 50-33% deficit based on the Kavanaugh vote. 

[Morpheus]

Manchin says he is a “yes”.

[Bonnot OG]

Just so we're clear, Manchin and Collins, and all the other yes votes, are only helping to create an atmosphere where more women will get sexually abused, and it will also make it harder for those women to also get reproductive health services. To me that is malvolent. 

Ignoring women and the harm this vote does, shows you do not care about women and are more intersted in your own special intersts. So yea, Manchin and Collins can fuck off. And that org may want to change their rating of Manchin given his vote here.

[Mexal]

7 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

I doubt Collins will face any significant blowback from this.  She isn't up for reelection until 2020 and she easily won in 2014 (68.5% to 31.5%).  

2014 isn't like what 2020 will be, especially on the back of whatever decisions Kavanaugh ends up making. Trump lost Maine by what, 15 pts and now she's turning her back on the women there who came to her with their own stories. I doubt she has an easy time.

[Bonnot OG]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

But it doesn't outweigh the alternative, which would be a conservative that votes with Trump about 95% of the time. 

 

Instead, we get Manchin voting in Kavanaugh, who will protect Trump at all costs and who thinks the president can do what ever they want because they are the president.

[Fez]

27 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I thought in the end it would go the other way, Collins a no and Murkowski a yes.

If you look at overall voting records, Collins may be more "moderate" than Murkowski, but ever since Murkowski had to win as a write-in in 2010, she's made it clear that she doesn't particularly care about the Republican party as an institution and that she doesn't need them. So when an issue is important to her, she has no problem bucking the party. Collins is much more institutional as a Republican, that party ID matters to her, so she rarely breaks ranks on big votes. ACA repeal is one of the only ones. There was also the Obama stimulus, but that was from being edged on by Olympia Snowe, a true moderate Maine Republican.

I'm surprised she went this hyper-partisan, but I'm not surprised she's an "aye" even though I hoped she might not be.

[Ran]

The Republican would also vote for Kavanaugh, and will certainly vote for Trump's next Supreme court pick if Ginsburg can't go the distance whereas maybe Manchin wouldn't. And a bunch of other stuff that Manchin wouldn't vote for. And would ensure the Republicans retain control of the Senate so they can continue to cover for him, whereas with Manchin in place, maybe the Democrats control the Senate and proceed to block Trump in all sorts of things that liberals want.

This is really straightforward. Vent all the spleen you want toward Manchin, but his getting re-elected is a good thing for the left. A Manichaean view of politics is pointlessly wrong-headed.

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

Instead, we get Manchin voting in Kavanaugh, who will protect Trump at all costs and who thinks the president can do what ever they want because they are the president.

Yes, and that, as lame as it is, is better than the alternative. This isn't that hard to understand. Those are your choices from West Virginia. You can want a progressive from WV to run, and that'd be cool, but they will lose, and they will lose badly. The previous Dem senator from West Virginia started his political career as a member of the KKK, and while he made a lot of attempts at making that better, that was his background plain and simple. 

Criticizing Manchin for more often voting Republican vs. Democrat is a great example of the perfect being the enemy of the good. Manchin isn't the problem. We need more people like Manchin if the Dems are ever going to retake the senate. 

ETA: here's an example. Manchin ALSO voted down the AHCA, which would have stripped my son of his health care. A republican from WV would never in a million years done that. 

[Kalbear]

6 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

Just so we're clear, Manchin and Collins, and all the other yes votes, are only helping to create an atmosphere where more women will get sexually abused, and it will also make it harder for those women to also get reproductive health services. To me that is malvolent. 

49 other Republicans are also doing that, and you're singling out the two who are less likely to do it than anyone else. This is stupid. 

 

 

[Mexal]

 

[James Arryn]

You guys arguing with OG about empty words that won’t change anything are being intentionally satirical, right?

[DMC]

I should be noted Joe Manchin was once of the 51 votes that stopped the ACA repeal.  He also voted against the GOP tax bill.  I disagree with his political calculus - I don't think voting nay would have hurt his chances at all - but ultimately it doesn't matter with Collins' announcement.  As other have said, if Collins was voting nay I strongly suspect Manchin would have too.

[Bonnot OG]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

I should be noted Joe Manchin was once of the 51 votes that stopped the ACA repeal.  He also voted against the GOP tax bill.  I disagree with his political calculus - I don't think voting nay would have hurt his chances at all - but ultimately it doesn't matter with Collins' announcement.  As other have said, if Collins was voting nay I strongly suspect Manchin would have too.

None of what Manchin did matters with a Kavanaugh confirmation. 

Manchin needs to be held accountable regardless of how self loathing misognyist Collins voted. 

Useless white moderate men on this board with their being okay with a Dem not giving a shit about women, the LGBTQ community, people of color or the disabled. 

They are all just collateral damage in your eyes, and DMC, I'm not strictly talking about you before you think I am. 

[Ran]

6 minutes ago, Mexal said:

 

Lots of people guessing Collins is planning to not run for re-election, but if she does, Rice is an excellent challenger.

Also: "Oh, snap!"

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

Manchin needs to be held accountable regardless of how self loathing misognyist Collins voted.

If the Dems want to hold Manchin accountable via primary when he runs again (a la Lieberman/Lamont) I'm all for it.  But I'm not for forcing a sitting member into GOP arms like Josh Lyman just to make a point.  It's not rational.

 

[James Arryn]

Reminder: when it was first floated, the ‘she’s telling the truth about her life altering experience...she’s just confused about who she remembers altering her life’ line was (rightfully) laughed at. But this is the USA in nowtime, so this is where it ended up resting. The joke-to-reality transition is getting pretty seamless in the time of Trump (another obvious example).

Pure cowardice. I mean, disbelieve her if you want too...but I guess that fell flat when she screentested so credibly...but this whole ‘we believe you but we don’t believe you’ crap is really gross. As is pretending this is a burden of proof situation. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Key words here that haven’t been alluded to, but not said: Committee Chairmanships.

You hold your nose and let Manchin stay in the party, though you deny him any committee chairs worth a damn.

[Bonnot OG]

Collins said she felt bullied by sexual assault survivors outside her office. Imagine how they feel Susan, you arrogant shit. 

BTW, https://www.rainn.org/ donate. 

[DMC]

Remember Collins eyed the governor's seat for a while, and it will of course be up again in 2022 - which in all likelihood will be a better environment for the GOP.  And the GOP party in Maine is much more conservative than she is.

The most surprising thing about that Susan Rice tweet would be if she actually has residency in Maine.

[DMC]

Matt Grossmann, a premier scholar in American Behavior, posted an interesting article on 538 yesterday:

Voters Like a Political Party Until It Passes Laws

Quote

When Democrats historically have tried to enact a spate of liberal policies, Republicans have made gains and public opinion has moved in a more conservative direction. Likewise, when Republicans have passed more conservative policies, Democrats have made gains, and public opinion has moved in a more liberal direction. It might not sound intuitive, but policy victories usually result in a mobilized opposition and electoral losses. Or, put another way, voters usually punish rather than reward parties that move policy to achieve their goals.