US Politics: Red, Red Whine

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok, so I do think 538's "draft" is pretty fun.  We should do this before the midterms - who's your number one pick as the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee?  My top pick would be Harris.  Who's yours right now?

I'll put $20 on a Harris-Booker ticket, though I don't know who will be the VP. 

[Morpheus]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok, so I do think 538's "draft" is pretty fun.  We should do this before the midterms - who's your number one pick as the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee?  My top pick would be Harris.  Who's yours right now?

I’ll go with Warren. But I have this fear that a year from now, the prospective field will look a lot more boring with midwest appealing oldsters like Biden gettin more of a push from leadership.

[James Arryn]

Just now, Morpheus said:

I’ll go with Warren. But I have this fear that a year from now, the prospective field will look a lot more boring with midwest appealing oldsters like Biden gettin more of a push from leadership.

Eh, I don’t think this is the climate for a Biden run. And I think he’s probably savvy enough to know it. I only see him running if no one else generates much widespread enthusiasm.

[Morpheus]

5 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Eh, I don’t think this is the climate for a Biden run. And I think he’s probably savvy enough to know it. I only see him running if no one else generates much widespread enthusiasm.

I agree that Biden missed his chance. But I think Dem leaderhip is going to go with the “siphon white rural voters” strategy and we probably will see a lot of underwhelming candidates come to the fore. Booker, Harris, Warren, et al. are clearly doing some audtioning, but they are also being a bit cautious because who knows where Trump will be a year from now and how insulated he will be from his legal woes if he still has the Senate. No one is really leading the charge.

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

I'll put $20 on a Harris-Booker ticket, though I don't know who will be the VP. 

I doubt if one of them gets the nom the other would be tapped as VP.  More than ever, the key demographic is race, and with the Dem constituency they'll most likely want to balance that out.

13 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

I’ll go with Warren. But I have this fear that a year from now, the prospective field will look a lot more boring with midwest appealing oldsters like Biden gettin more of a push from leadership.

I'm still not convinced Biden's gonna run.  He's making all the indications, sure, but if he wasn't willing to go to war in 2016, I question if he will now.  It's a much more open field, sure, but it's still an uphill battle.  And as @James Arryn said, he's the wrong person for this time and probably knows it.  I expect Warren will be the frontrunner in the pre-primary phase.  Can she keep it?  We'll see.  I'm skeptical.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

I doubt if one of them gets the nom the other would be tapped as VP.  More than ever, the key demographic is race, and with the Dem constituency they'll most likely want to balance that out.

I picked them because I think they'll be the last two in the race and a unity ticket might be a good idea, given 2016. But you are right in that they may have demographic issues. As unsavory as it sounds, the candidate has to recapture some of the white vote, and who knows if those two can.

The real shame is that since Democrats got run over at the state level, there aren't many governors to pick from. Walz, the DFL candidate in Minnesota would be a good option, but he'll have just one year under his belt if he were to run, and that's assuming he'd even win his current race.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Can't recall if I asked this already this cycle, but are folks seeing any lawn signs? One of my roles in 2012 was being a statewide viability coordinator, and that meant I played a large role in getting the lawn signs up throughout the state. It was a huge operation and was largely done by the end of summer, and we had them everywhere. However, I haven't seen many this cycle or the last one for candidates at all levels outside of state house races and I'm wondering if campaigns are heavily moving away from them.

[Fragile Bird]

Back to real life.

Five law enforcement officers were shot in South Carolina.

No news on deaths.

Shooter is in custody.

Florence, SC.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

On Monday, three women approached Republican senator David Perdue of Georgia at the Ronald Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C., asking whether he would vote to approve Kavanaugh. One informed him she was a sexual-assault survivor; another asked him about the millions of women who have come out about their own experiences: “You don’t feel like you have to answer any questions to people who have come out about their sexual assaults?”

The three women — sexual-assault survivors Patti Serrano and Jennifer Epps-Addison, of the Center for Popular Democracy advocacy group, along with Arizona State Representative Isela Blanc — also asked Perdue whether he supports a full FBI investigation into the allegations against Kavanaugh.

Perdue ignored the women, even pushing one — she can be heard saying “Don’t push me” on the escalator — before literally dodging them to hide in the men’s bathroom. When the survivors tried to introduce themselves and shake his hand, Perdue said, “Don’t touch me.”

“Senator, how can you not talk to women who have been assaulted?” Epps-Addison said while Perdue was in the bathroom. “How can you ignore our pleas? You have to exit at some point.”

Blanc added, “You represent not just your state’s choice, but every American in this country, and every person that is vulnerable. This is a legacy, and a moment in history that will not be forgotten.”

Advocates also approached Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at the airport. “How many stories of sexual violence do you need to hear in order to believe women?” Naina Khanna, the executive director of Positive Women’s Network USA, asked him. McConnell ignored her and others, stopping to shake another man’s hand before continuing forward and up an escalator. “Senator McConnell, do you always turn your back on women like this?” Khanna said.

 

Republican Senator Hides in Men’s Bathroom When Confronted by Sexual-Assault Survivors

https://www.thecut.com/2018/10/republican-senator-ignores-assault-survivors-in-bathroom.html

[Fragile Bird]

Update.

One of the police officers in South Carolina is dead.

[Morpheus]

Mitch McConnell is pure vileness through and through, he feels no shame, he does not recognize the pain of victims, better to ask a lion to empathize with a gazelle, than hope that pathetic parody of a human can see past his own desires and quest to radicalize the country through the courts.

[Kalbear]

53 minutes ago, DMC said:

Ok, so I do think 538's "draft" is pretty fun.  We should do this before the midterms - who's your number one pick as the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee?  My top pick would be Harris.  Who's yours right now?

Jay Inslee. 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, SpaceForce Tywin et al. said:

The real shame is that since Democrats got run over at the state level, there aren't many governors to pick from.

Hm, I mean, 16 is low but I think the problem with the sitting Dem governors is more just the fact none of them are presidential material.  Suppose Cuomo could have been, but he was stupid enough to make it apparent he's a giant asshole.  In terms of possible incoming governors, what do we got?:

• Ned Lamont (CT) - Dude who ran against Lieberman.  Um, no.
• Andrew Gillum (FL) - I like his chances in the gubernatorial race, but way too young.
• Stacey Abrams (GA) - Can't see it.
• J. B. Pritzker (IL) - Nah.  The Pritzkers may be able to buy most anything, but that's asking too much.
• Fred Hubbell (IA) - There's not even a picture of him on his wikipedia page.
• Janet Mills (ME) - Nope.
• Gretchen Whitmer (MI) - Eh, I could see it as possible.
• Steve Sisolak (NV) - Nope.
• Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM) - Doubtful.
• Richard Cordray (OH) - He'll wait.
• Tony Evers (WI) - I really hope not.

So, yeah, not much there.  Maybe Whitmer, but I wouldn't be surprised if the preference for Governors - which was certainly a thing for a while there - is generally not as significant as it used to be.

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Jay Inslee. 

[Sleep emoji]

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Oh fuck this. The US government has had access to your phones,your televisions, your radios and your press for well over a hundred years. An undirected mass message is entirely in line with the rest of the EBS that we've had for ever. 

If you have a cell phone, chances are you've opted in to absurd privacy violations and done so happily. If you're caring more that a massive text you can't reply to can be sent out as the invasion, you've really got some issues. 

There were radio and television networks 100 years ago.?????????????????????

Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit!  Here I thought I knew history. 

 

[Kalbear]

Inslee is basically a Brown proxy, and has certainly been indicating that he'll run. I don't know that he's incredibly exciting, but he's practical and has a lot of actual success across the board in running the state AND fighting Trumpian bullshit. I can see him doing well early in places like Iowa and New Hampshire getting the more moderate dems on board. 

I guess I should be more serious: what of the candidates out there are likely going to win the South? Winning the South has been the best predictor of Dem success for the last 40 years. For that reason, I think a number of candidates suffer greatly compared to others; for example, it's hard for me to imagine Warren winning over Harris, or Klobuchar winning over Booker, or anyone winning over Biden. 

[Zorral]

Just now, Kalbear said:

Inslee is basically a Brown proxy, and has certainly been indicating that he'll run. I don't know that he's incredibly exciting, but he's practical and has a lot of actual success across the board in running the state AND fighting Trumpian bullshit. I can see him doing well early in places like Iowa and New Hampshire getting the more moderate dems on board. 

I guess I should be more serious: what of the candidates out there are likely going to win the South? Winning the South has been the best predictor of Dem success for the last 40 years. For that reason, I think a number of candidates suffer greatly compared to others; for example, it's hard for me to imagine Warren winning over Harris, or Klobuchar winning over Booker, or anyone winning over Biden. 

Watch 'em roll on your tv from 100 years ago and listen to  'em on your radio network 100 years ago.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

Watch 'em roll on your tv from 100 years ago and listen to  'em on your radio network 100 years ago.

Sorry, you're right; radio stations occurred only 98 years ago, and TV stations occurred about 70 years ago. My entire argument is thus rendered completely invalid by your pedantry, and clearly it is the case that because I wasn't precise enough in the years I used that the government will be using the EAS to broadcast aryan nationalist genocide chants directly to your phone.

[Ormond]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Hm, I mean, 16 is low but I think the problem with the sitting Dem governors is more just the fact none of them are presidential material.  Suppose Cuomo could have been, but he was stupid enough to make it apparent he's a giant asshole.  In terms of possible incoming governors, what do we got?:

• Ned Lamont (CT) - Dude who ran against Lieberman.  Um, no.
• Andrew Gillum (FL) - I like his chances in the gubernatorial race, but way too young.
• Stacey Abrams (GA) - Can't see it.
• J. B. Pritzker (IL) - Nah.  The Pritzkers may be able to buy most anything, but that's asking too much.
• Fred Hubbell (IA) - There's not even a picture of him on his wikipedia page.
• Janet Mills (ME) - Nope.
• Gretchen Whitmer (MI) - Eh, I could see it as possible.
• Steve Sisolak (NV) - Nope.
• Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM) - Doubtful.
• Richard Cordray (OH) - He'll wait.
• Tony Evers (WI) - I really hope not.

So, yeah, not much there.  Maybe Whitmer, but I wouldn't be surprised if the preference for Governors - which was certainly a thing for a while there - is generally not as significant as it used to be.

[Sleep emoji]

I am no expert, but why are none of the other sitting Dem governors presidential material? 

I have a bit of a dark horse fantasy about Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana. He's been elected twice in a "red" state while being pro-choice and having had some leadership in opposition to the "Citizens United" ruling. Right after the last election I found him as a possibility just by looking through the list of Democratic officeholders. I really think we are past the time when a candidate has to be from a big population state to win -- at least after we've had Cheney, Palin, and Biden as Vice Presidential candidates (two of them actual VPs) the last few decades, all from states with only 3 electoral votes, like Montana.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bullock_(American_politician)

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Inslee is basically a Brown proxy, and has certainly been indicating that he'll run. I don't know that he's incredibly exciting, but he's practical and has a lot of actual success across the board in running the state AND fighting Trumpian bullshit. I can see him doing well early in places like Iowa and New Hampshire getting the more moderate dems on board. 

I think he'll play well in Iowa.  Not NH.  And definitely not SC.  Maybe Nevada, but I just don't see him lasting.  He's that guy that does well and is impressive and everyone talks about, but can't inspire.

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I guess I should be more serious: what of the candidates out there are likely going to win the South? Winning the South has been the best predictor of Dem success for the last 40 years. For that reason, I think a number of candidates suffer greatly compared to others; for example, it's hard for me to imagine Warren winning over Harris, or Klobuchar winning over Booker, or anyone winning over Biden. 

I think Harris or Booker could take Biden in SC, and then the rest of the South.  Vote splitting is a concern though, but it's way too early to try to figure that out.

[DMC]

Just now, Ormond said:

I am no expert, but why are none of the other sitting Dem governors presidential material? 

I have a bit of a dark horse fantasy about Steve Bullock, the governor of Montana.

You're right about Bullock.  He's an interesting choice.  I also forgot to mention Hickenlooper (CO).  He's probably gonna run.  And he's almost certainly gonna lose.  Way too moderate.  Those are the only two sitting governors I think I missed.  If you think there's more, let's hear it.