US Politics: Red, Red Whine

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

I think he'll play well in Iowa.  Not NH.  And definitely not SC.  Maybe Nevada, but I just don't see him lasting.  He's that guy that does well and is impressive and everyone talks about, but can't inspire.

 

People said a lot of the same thing about Clinton. Hell, they said it about Trump. Inspiration is one part, but having a lot of good support in the party and the ability to mobilize may matter a lot more when winning early, and then surviving later. Inslee has enough of a record in the democratic party to at least make people think about it. I don't think Warren does as much, and I suspect a lot of the party is wary of any Sanderseque people out there. 

A lot depends on how well someone like Harris could motivate, but I think Inslee would do a lot better compared to Warren. 

1 minute ago, DMC said:

 

I think Harris or Booker could take Biden in SC, and then the rest of the South.  Vote splitting is a concern though, but it's way too early to try to figure that out.

Maybe. A lot also depends on how many people are running and how the early stuff goes. I'm personally very skeptical of any senator that has been around for a while doing well whatsoever. Candidates who seemingly have done well are ones that people don't seem to know as much about but have a decent record on what they have done. Harris and Booker works here; Warren doesn't. 

[DMC]

Just now, Kalbear said:

Inspiration is one part, but having a lot of good support in the party and the ability to mobilize may matter a lot more when winning early, and then surviving later. Inslee has enough of a record in the democratic party to at least make people think about it. I don't think Warren does as much, and I suspect a lot of the party is wary of any Sanderseque people out there. 

There is no indication anyone in the party is gathering around Inslee for support.  Whereas there is for a number of other candidates (Warren, Harris, Booker).  As for being wary of Warren and/or Sandersesque candidates, I hear ya.

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

A lot depends on how well someone like Harris could motivate, but I think Inslee would do a lot better compared to Warren. 

I think Harris will be much better than Inslee at the bully pulpit aspect.

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

I'm personally very skeptical of any senator that has been around for a while doing well whatsoever. Candidates who seemingly have done well are ones that people don't seem to know as much about but have a decent record on what they have done. Harris and Booker works here; Warren doesn't. 

Agreed.  Newness helps.  All three are "new" in some regard, or maybe that's just me getting old.  Anyway, I think Harris can mechanize that newness factor better than Booker or Warren.

[DMC]

Forgot to say - Gillibrand would have been my #2 pick.  I've learned not to underestimate her.

[KingintheNorth4]

Watching the IL governor debate and Bruce Rauner actually said in a serious tone "darn tootin". Our governor, ladies and gentlemen.

[Bonnot OG]

 

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Okay - what is stopping the government from doing that RIGHT NOW, with the EBS that exists already? Is it appreciably different that they can hit every television, radio, normal phone, newspaper, and the entire internet? 

Because they have had that, and had it for 50 years. 

You're kidding yourself if you think it is any more of a problem than what we have.

You realize this is an emergency broadcast system, and not a 'voice of the POTUS' text, right?

This is another bullshit rant against things you don't understand instead of being upset about things that do exist. 

Because this shit doesn't happen over night. 

Yea, and now they have just one more option, one that people use more and have on them to carry with them every where they go. It's the easiest thing to send it to. They're called smart phones in case you aren't caught up.

You realize who runs the fucking government right? And you do realize the GOP is not holding him accountble because they are complicit right?

You think they won't use this to their advantage lol? Want a bridge? Got one for sale.

[Bonnot OG]

20 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Sorry, you're right; radio stations occurred only 98 years ago, and TV stations occurred about 70 years ago. My entire argument is thus rendered completely invalid by your pedantry, and clearly it is the case that because I wasn't precise enough in the years I used that the government will be using the EAS to broadcast aryan nationalist genocide chants directly to your phone.

So it can't happen here is what you are saying? 

And what do people have access to more, their cell phones, computers, radios, or tvs?

[SkynJay]

24 minutes ago, DMC said:

You're right about Bullock.  He's an interesting choice.  I also forgot to mention Hickenlooper (CO).  He's probably gonna run.  And he's almost certainly gonna lose.  Way too moderate.  Those are the only two sitting governors I think I missed.  If you think there's more, let's hear it.

 

Nice thing about Hick is he is moderate but not really in current climate.  If the Dems really think there are still never Trumpers and swing voters he would be a good choice.  But he is a bit too business cozy to drum up true excitement.  I don't expect him to be a player in two years like I once did.

That said, he really has stuck to the party line better than i thought he would.  He hasn't accepted the Tea Party as the new center like some have.

[Kalbear]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Forgot to say - Gillibrand would have been my #2 pick.  I've learned not to underestimate her.

I think she's got too much connection with Clinton. It'll cost her with Dems who are cautious about it, and one of the other runners will hammer her about it. 

 

1 minute ago, Bonnot OG said:

 

Because this shit doesn't happen over night. 

Yea, and now they have just one more option, one that people use more and have on them to carry with them every where they go. It's the easiest thing to send it to. They're called smart phones in case you aren't caught up.

You do realize that the government has had the option to send alerts to everyone's phones for the last ten years, and your phone is required by law to provide location data to the government for emergency services, right? If you're this paranoid AND you have a smart phone, you're an incredible hypocrite or an idiot. 

1 minute ago, Bonnot OG said:

You realize who runs the fucking government right? And you do realize the GOP is not holding him accountble because they are complicit right? 

You think they won't use this to their advantage lol? Want a bridge? Got one for sale.

I think that if they had wanted to do this and had the political will to do it they would have done it already, and having the ability to broadcast an emergency message on another platform in a slightly different way is not particularly cause for alarm. I'm more alarmed by the government attempting to remove almost 200,000 US citizens by deporting their parents. But hey, if you really hate texts, let your tin foil hat fly. 

[Kalbear]

10 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

So it can't happen here is what you are saying? 

And what do people have access to more, their cell phones, computers, radios, or tvs?

I'm not saying it can't happen here; I'm saying that this is such a monumentally small thing to get worked up about and think that THIS IS THE REAL danger that anyone who does so cannot be remotely trusted to give their opinion on anything consequential. It's basically right up there with chemtrails and Men in Black and compassionate conservatives - things no sane person actually ascribes to. 

By all means, get worked up about things - but this kind of bullshit is entirely beneath everyone, and only makes you look like a crisis junkie. 

[Fragile Bird]

Interesting interview conducted by Anderson Cooper with Kavanaugh's first-year Yale roommate.

He confirms that Kavanaugh was indeed a typical male university student, getting drunk on weekends and maybe during the week as well, and that he didn't socialize with him because he didn't care for the attitude they had towards women. That the terms Kavanaugh said meant farting and a drinking team were commonly used sexual terms and used by Kavanaugh, sorry, by his crowd, he didn't remember Kavanaugh directly, that way. And he was a loud and obnoxious drunk.

He had been phoned by Farrow and asked about Ramirez's allegations, and he is sure she is telling the truth. He was not a witness, because he did not hang out with that crowd, and once he was asked about the incident he started to remember the story Ramirez told him, but not well enough to confirm it. But he knew her well enough to believe her story.

But he's speaking up now because of Kavanaugh's testimony. He doesn't condemn Kavanaugh's drinking, but he thinks that if he had integrity he would have admitted he drank more than previously admitted. Just what many people said in this and the previous thread. Why not just man up and admit he drank and puked, just like other college students. 

[Bonnot OG]

 

[lokisnow]

I’d draft Hickenlooper and Booker, I think it’s going to be a man and I think Booker has the best laid track.  I think Hickenlooper has the best chance of beating Trump only because Trump will want to call him Hick which won’t play well with his own base.  

but if Beto wins the senate seat then we all know it is fait accompli he will win the 2020 nomination, no one else will come close to his star power in the dem party, not warren, nor Harris, nor sanders, nor Booker nor even Biden.  Beto entering the race would probably clear the field of everyone but those top five. And although he might punt or draw in Iowa and lose New Hampshire ( to the homers) he’ll sweep the south and California. And it’s all over from there.

 

Yes he would whip Harris here in Cali. for sure, the state party has massive control in the north and he won’t make a lot of inroads there with base voters, but Beto will draw huge turnout in southern Cali—usually ignored by the party apparatus in primaries—and completely trounce her overall in the state due to the population disparity in the two regions.

With the new motor voter law in effect for two years now, California has 76% of its eligible voters registered, that’s going to go up another two million before the 2020 primaries. The state democrat party won’t be able to control it for the north the way the usually have and as a result they’ll get pantsed.

Ultimately, democrats aren’t going to be inspired by the three angry old boomers or a Clinton Clone, or Diet Obama. Or any of the dozens of white milquetoast governors or senators. 

But Beto probably would inspire them. And that’s the thing that all the Kerry-Dukakis-types who are running all seriously lack.

[Bonnot OG]

People the FBI didn't interview during the Kavanaugh investigation.

* 20 people whom Deborah Ramirez said could have info
* Multiple Yale classmates *who contacted the FBI to offer info*
* Julie Swetnick
* Christine Blasey Ford

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Sorry, you're right; radio stations occurred only 98 years ago, and TV stations occurred about 70 years ago. My entire argument is thus rendered completely invalid by your pedantry, and clearly it is the case that because I wasn't precise enough in the years I used that the government will be using the EAS to broadcast aryan nationalist genocide chants directly to your phone.

?????????

 

[lokisnow]

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/03/654015874/poll-amid-kavanaugh-confirmation-battle-democratic-enthusiasm-edge-evaporates

kavanaugh clusterfuck a significant net positive for Republicans.

[Ice Queen]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

You're right about Bullock.  He's an interesting choice.  I also forgot to mention Hickenlooper (CO).  He's probably gonna run.  And he's almost certainly gonna lose.  Way too moderate.  Those are the only two sitting governors I think I missed.  If you think there's more, let's hear it.

 

Tom Wolf, PA.  I don't think he's presidential material, personally, although he's doing okay for the state. He's up against a Republican majority in the General Assembly that thinks we still live in the 18th century.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

I'm not saying it can't happen here; I'm saying that this is such a monumentally small thing to get worked up about and think that THIS IS THE REAL danger that anyone who does so cannot be remotely trusted to give their opinion on anything consequential. It's basically right up there with chemtrails and Men in Black and compassionate conservatives - things no sane person actually ascribes to. 

By all means, get worked up about things - but this kind of bullshit is entirely beneath everyone, and only makes you look like a crisis junkie. 

I'd say it's quite up there along with FB and much other "social media" etc. participating via Russian trolls, bots etc. to mess the elections etc. and helping sell the USA out to Russia, thanx to you know who.

While, on the other spectrum, shutting down federal weather alerts on local stations to real weather emergencies so that commercial weather corps like accu weather who CHARGE for the same information that the federal govenment hands out after gathering with our federal dollars -- are lobbying to get you to pay for again to have that information because they want to shut down the 'free' federal government information flowing freely to the people of the United States, whose tax dollars has paid for the gathering in the first place.

 

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

17 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

People the FBI didn't interview during the Kavanaugh investigation.

* 20 people whom Deborah Ramirez said could have info
* Multiple Yale classmates *who contacted the FBI to offer info*
* Julie Swetnick
* Christine Blasey Ford

Wtf I thought they were going talk to Swetnick.  This is a political hit job.

[The Anti-Targ]

10 hours ago, butterbumps! said:

It’s not really about whether someone did those things.    The idea isn’t that someone who drank heavily is likely guilty of assault or sex crimes, but that someone who lies about, dissembles and otherwise misrepresents or evades the truth about the drinking is probably lying about other more serious things.   The decades ago drinking itself isn’t what calls the character into question, but rather his dishonesty about it that opens him up to further questions of credibility.   

It's not even about that, for me. It's about the fact that you have a judge, who is going to be appointed to a lifetime job in the highest court in the land, who demonstrably has no personal respect for one of the fundamental tenets of the legal system, which is that when under oath when you say you will tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that's what you actually do.

His defenders might get away with claiming that he didn't tell a lie, therefore he told the truth. But can anyone really claim he told the whole truth? If his defenders are even saying saying he wasn't honest, and his testimony was misleading, but you can't convict him of perjury, I think the answer is clearly that did not tell the whole truth. To believe that an ordinary person, let alone a person actually guilty of a crime, will adhere to that nothing but the truth thing when testifying is naive. But people should be able to trust that those occupying highest level of the judiciary are far more committed to honouring that code than the common or garden criminal. But it seems when it comes to serving one's own interests or saving one's skin, there really is a lack of depth of character among many of those who sit on the bench.

Is the standard for honesty for appointment to the SC: not being so dishonest that a pima facie case of perjury could be brought against you? BK has met that standard I guess, so yay for the USA?

[Martell Spy]

Why Amazon Raised Its Minimum Wage

It wasn't out of the goodness of Jeff Bezos's heart.

https://newrepublic.com/article/151521/amazon-raised-minimum-wage

Quote

But Amazon’s decision to raise its minimum wage was influenced by a number of other factors, and says a great deal about the political complexity of running an enormous (in this case, $1 trillion in market value) corporation. Like other companies, Amazon is very conscious of the political damage that can be done by being on the wrong side of certain issues. At the same time, taking safe stances can be a useful branding tool in creating an aura of corporate social responsibility. By raising its minimum wage to $15, Amazon is garnering the most political capital it can from taking a position that very likely would have been forced on it anyway.