A dark horse for the perfumed seneschal

[Guest]

I’m going to explore a dark horse candidate for the perfumed seneschal in Quaithe’s warnings to Daenerys. 

Quaithe's warnings:

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“The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.” 

- Quaithe in Daenerys' chapters, ADWD

 

Quote

“Last of the three seekers to depart was Quaithe the shadowbinder. From her Dany received only a warning. “Beware,” the woman in the red lacquer mask said.
“Of whom?”
“Of all. They shall come day and night to see the wonder that has been born again into the world, and when they see they shall lust. For dragons are fire made flesh, and fire is power.”

- Daenerys, ACOK

 

In the first warning, Quaithe tells her to beware of everyone because the only thing they will want from her is her power. In the second warning, Quaithe gets more specific about who is coming to her, and warns her about them too. The perfumed seneschal takes a special place as the last one she warns her about. The perfumed seneschal is also linked to the Houses of the Undying, as someone to “beware,” presumably because he will take her power, like the Undying tried to do.

Before speculating on who the perfumed seneschal is, I’d like to examine Quaithe’s motives. A lot of people are confused (Dany included) by her cryptic riddles. Is she trying to help Dany or setting her up for failure? I don’t claim to have the answers to this question. Some people argue that she is being deceptive because an alliance with Dorne may have helped Dany, and she warned her about Quentyn. So, why should Dany beware of Quentyn, Tyrion, Victarion, and Aegon? They are seeking an alliance in good faith; they don’t intend to ensnare Dany into a trap to betray her later, like the Undying did.

Perhaps they are all people who are only seeking Dany for her dragons. They wouldn’t be coming to her otherwise:

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“They never meant to help me. They came because they were curious. They came because they were bored, and the dragon on my shoulder interested them more than I did.” 

- Daenerys, ACOK

So Dany needs to be careful of everyone who comes to her, even if they are in earnest, because they want to use her for her dragons. Quaithe's warning, “Remember the Undying,” is an example of a situation when Dany was too trusting when she shouldn’t have been. It's also an example of Dany erroneously thinking that she was seeking wisdom, when it has only caused more confusion. Moreover, the warlocks manipulated and deceived her, presumably to get to her dragons (or to use her Valyrian magic for their own purposes–it is somewhat unclear what they were after). She would have died at the Houses of the Undying if it weren’t for Drogon. Quaithe is telling Dany she needs to keep her guard up, her dragons close, and her eyes open to people who want to use her. If she doesn’t, not only will she lose them, but she’ll also end up dead.

So if Quaithe is telling Dany to beware of everyone who seeks her dragons (”Trust no one”), and she wants the mother of dragons to stay alive, I’m going to take that as someone acting to help her. Or, I could be wrong and Quaithe is using some serious reverse psychology to get Dany to fulfill the prophecies herself, so that she will screw herself over. Regardless of the outcome, Quaithe creates more prophecies for Dany to solve, and causes more worry/anxiety. 

Some of Quaithe's warnings appear fairly straightforward to the reader. They are clear enough so that Dany can piece them together:

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“Ser Barristan, what are the arms of House Martell?”
“A sun in splendor, transfixed by a spear.”
The sun’s son. A shiver went through her. “Shadows and whispers.” What else had Quaithe said? The pale mare and the sun’s son. There was a lion in it too, and a dragon. Or am I the dragon? “Beware the perfumed seneschal.” That she remembered. “Dreams and prophecies. Why must they always be in riddles? I hate this.”

- Daenerys, ADWD

 

Aside: does Dany seriously not know the arms of House Martell? If so, she has a disturbing lack of knowledge on the country she wants to rule. She connects Quentyn to the sun’s son. As others have noted, the pale mare is the sickness in Astapor. The kraken and dark flame are Victarion and his red priest Moqorro. The lion is Tyrion and the griffin is Jon Connington, the mummer is Varys and the dragon is Aegon. The fact that she thinks she could be the dragon illustrates her confusion. It could also be a hint from the author that she could be the "mummer"; Dany thinks Westeros is a place she was "born to rule," but it could be Jon if he is indeed the heir to the throne.

Dany has more difficulties identifying the perfumed seneschal, however:

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“What is done is done,” said Reznak mo Reznak. “Your Worship, I beg you, take the noble Hizdahr for your king at once. He can speak with the Wise Masters, make a peace for us.”
“On what terms?” Beware the perfumed seneschal, Quaithe had said. The masked woman had foretold the coming of the pale mare, was she right about the noble Reznak too?

- Daenerys, ADWD

 

Reznak mo Reznak is a seneschal of Meereen who wears lots of perfume. He often cautions Dany to restrain from violence. The fact that he is mentioned so frequently in the text as “the perfumed seneschal”makes me think it’s probably not Reznak, because it’s someone she (and Barristan…and the cursory reader) expects. My sense is that he serves the same function as Margaery for Cersei in the Younger More Beautiful Queen prophecy.  Reznak is the perfect red herring.

seneschal

noun

1. the steward or major-domo of a medieval great house.
2. a governor or other administrative or judicial office

The author also has a character give us a definition in the text. This is Moqorro (”the dark flame”) translating the name of the ship that carries Tyrion to Essos:

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“Tell me, was Selaesori Qhoran a triarch or a turtle?”
The red priest chuckled. “Neither. Qhoran is … not a ruler, but one who serves and counsels such, and helps conduct his business. You of Westeros might say steward or magister.”
King’s Hand? That amused him. “And selaesori?”
Moqorro touched his nose. “Imbued with a pleasant aroma. Fragrant, would you say? Flowery?”
“So Selaesori Qhoran means Stinky Steward, more or less?”
“Fragrant Steward, rather.”

- Tyrion, ADWD

 

The implication here is that a seneschal is similar to a steward to a King’s Hand. Either one of these roles is someone who counsels and serves a ruler. Is Tyrion one of the candidates for a perfumed seneschal? Remember, the candidate is likely someone who is seeking Dany for her dragons, and they will smell flowery. Indeed, Tyrion is using her to bring fire and blood to his family. And, his ship name, Selaesori Qhoran (Fragrant Steward), could be what Quaithe was referring to. 

Or, like Reznak, Tyrion could be a second red herring. For one, he’s already included in the warning as the lion. Plus, there is scant evidence in the text that Tyrion is perfumed. He hasn’t been connected to fragrances, flowers, or perfume. 

fragrant

adjective

1. having a pleasant or sweet smell.
2. synonyms: sweet-scented, sweet-smelling, scented, perfumed, aromatic, odoriferous, odiferous, perfumy; redolent

Varys is the most plausible candidate from a surface reading of the text. He is a seneschal of the Westerosi royal court. He wears perfume as part of his public persona, and it has often been described as sweet-smelling. I guess the question is - will Varys be someone who is seeking Dany for her dragons (”Remember the Undying”), or is he there to make readers think they have "solved it," ruling out Reznak and the Selaesori Qhoran? It’s hard to say how Varys’ storyline will play out in the books since his plans revolve around Aegon, and Aegon plans to marry Dany…however that may change once Varys realizes how unpredictable Dany is. She has the potential for going her own way, Varys wants a puppet on the throne, and he may worry that she could become her father.

While the perfumed seneschal could simply refer to Varys because the other clues were easy enough to decipher, he would also be a repeat on the list as the "mummer." So who isn't on the list, other than Reznak, whom Dany already suspects? I think Jon is another candidate. Most definitely, Jon will seek her out because of her dragons. Why isn’t he included in the list, like the others? I would argue that he is there, hiding as the perfumed seneschal. 

Three ways Jon could be a “steward”:

1. Jon Snow was a steward to Lord Commander Mormont until his death in Book 3
2. When Jon meets Dany, he may be acting as Winterfell’s “steward” since he may restore it, but he won’t take up the title of Lord of Winterfell because he's not a Stark.
3. If his counsel is preferred over Jorah, Tyrion, or Varys, he may be acting as her steward/King’s Hand without the official title. 

Ways Jon could be “perfumed”:

1. Like many of Martin’s prophecies, we need to think metaphorically, not literally. Will Jon wear perfume? Probably not. However, he is associated with the blue flower at the Wall. It fills the air with sweetness. There are many references in the books that link flowers to perfume. I'm including them at the end of this post.
2. Death is associated with sweetness in the text. Furthermore, flowers are often associated with death and flowers on graves. Death, flowers, and Lyanna are connected in the text, in Ned’s chapters.
3. Jon could be masking his true thoughts, like a perfume masks a true scent. He did this with the wildlings, and Varamyr says that he always thought Jon smelled false. There are many passages where perfumes and flowers are associated with deception. Some characters (Tyrion, Sansa, and Dany) are hinted as having poor abilities to sense deception through smells. I'n including these passages at the end of this post. 
4. Just throwing this out here, but Jon smelling sweet like a perfume could be in Dany’s imagination. Or, he could actually wear some perfume in order to seduce Dany. In the text, Jon doesn’t appear to have a problem smelling sweet like flowers; but Barristan does.

Another point in favor of Varys being a red herring is how the author enjoys toying with his characters so that they actually make the prophecies come true in their efforts to prevent them. Quaithe’s purpose in the narrative is to cause Dany to think she’s following her advice, when she’s actually misinterpreting it:

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You have to handle [prophecies] very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy… In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that.

- GRRM, Adria’s News, 2012

 

To rephrase GRRM’s words to fit Dany: “The more Dany tries to avoid them, the more she is making them true.” By having her fortune read, with treasons included, she now has a parallel with Cersei. The narrative has set up a self-fulfilling prophecy. She will probably interpret "slayer of lies" as something she must do, therefore creating a future where she will do it. However, I believe that the visions in the House of the Undying are not fate, because Dany can choose to ignore them. Martin also says “you don’t want [the prophecies] to be too literal or too easy,” which probably rules out Varys or Reznak. He may be people who Dany thinks is the perfumed seneschal, but like Melisandre with Stannis, she would be incorrect in her assumptions. Likewise, Dany may burn Varys or Aegon, thinking that this has neutralized a threat to her...but there will likely be more people coming to her for her dragons. 

So, possibly, Dany needs to be wary of Jon. Why? Because she needs to beware of everyone coming to her for her dragons. Moreover, since Mirri, she is someone who is quick to sense betrayal and responds by swearing bloody vengeance. She may be similar to Rhaegar (guided by prophecies), Viserys (worried about betrayal), and her father (attracted to fire). She has many reasons to react harshly to Jon’s parentage if he refuses to marry her like she expects a Targaryen to do. Plus, it makes sense that Quaithe would include Jon in the list because all the rest are coming to Dany for her dragons, and if Jon is too, he will be no exception. If he seeks out Dany, he must be part of Quaithe’s warning, “Beware of all.” He must be included as one of the "riddles" on her list. So the enemies at Dany’s side that fit this riddle could be Reznak, Varys, Tyrion – or all three. However, few people suspect Jon. 

A passage that really makes me wonder:

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“She had made Hizdahr her king, taken him into her bed, opened the fighting pits for him, he had no reason to want her dead. Yet who else could it have been? Reznak, her perfumed seneschal? The Yunkai’i? The Sons of the Harpy?
Off in the distance, a wolf howled. The sound made her feel sad and lonely, but no less hungry.”

- Daenerys, ADWD

To me that passage reads this way:

"Who could have betrayed me?

Was it Hizdahr?

The perfumed seneschal?

Yunkai'i?

Who?!" 

Wolf howls in the distance.

The wolf howling at that exact moment is a clue to the reader. A betrayal that had no consequence (the poisoned locusts), is not as important as a betrayal that will. There is negative subtext in Dany's chapters whenever wolves are mentioned. A wolf makes her feel lonely, sad, and hungry. Later, she fears being eaten by wolves (and lions). She pits wolves against dragons during the discussion of the shepherds who are costing her money. A wolf is one of the shadows that she wasn't supposed to look at in the tent when Mirri was working her spell. An elephant in the fighting pits kills a pack of six wolves (exactly the number of Stark wolves), and Dany has no emotional reaction. Similarly, Tyrion has thoughts about how wolves howling make him feel like he is in danger. I think this is leading toward something big regarding some kind of betrayal (or at least Dany's perception of betrayal) from Jon. 

----------------------------------------------------

I'm including evidence for the following imagery:

• Flowers = perfume
• Sweetness = death
• Flowers = death
• Flowers = deception
• Sweet smells = deception
• Quentyn foreshadowing for bad smells masked by perfume
• Jon smelling false
• Dany and Tyrion’s inability to sense lies through smell
• Smelling out lies
• Perfumes = the red door

Flowers = perfume:

“She brought a dozen of the queen’s favorite scents as well. Sansa chose a sharp sweet fragrance with a hint of lemon in it under the smell of flowers.”

- Sansa, ASOS

“Anyhow, men shouldn’t smell sweet like flowers.”
“What’s wrong with flowers?”

- Jon, ASOS

“Reznak licked his lips. “Then we are done.” This time his oily smile betokened dismissal. Ser Barristan took his leave, grateful to leave the stench of the seneschal’s perfume behind him. A man should smell of sweat, not flowers.”

- Barristan, ADWD

Sweetness = Death

“A foul, sweet smell rose from the wound, so thick it almost choked her. The leaves were crusted with blood and pus, Drogo’s breast black and glistening with corruption.”

- Daenerys, AGOT

“There was a smell of death about that room; a heavy smell, sweet and foul, clinging. It reminded her of the sons that she had lost, her sweet Bran and her little Rickon, slain at the hand of Theon Greyjoy, who had been Ned’s ward. ”

- Catelyn, ASOS

Flowers = death:

“Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark.
Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses.”

- Eddard, AGOT

“Sansa had hoped Joffrey might be with her. Her prince was not there, but three of the king’s councillors were. Lord Petyr Baelish sat on the queen’s left hand, Grand Maester Pycelle at the end of the table, while Lord Varys hovered over them, smelling flowery. All of them were clad in black, she realized with a feeling of dread. Mourning clothes … ”

- Sansa, AGOT

“The boat had vanished in the mists. Falling, the flaming arrow was swallowed up as well … but only for a heartbeat. Then, sudden as hope, they saw the red bloom flower. The sails took fire, and the fog glowed pink and orange. For a moment Catelyn saw the outline of the boat clearly, wreathed in leaping flame

- Catelyn, watching Hoster’s funeral pyre take light, ASOS

“Dywen, the gnarled old forester who liked to boast that he could smell snow coming on, sidled closer to the corpses and took a whiff. “Well, they’re no pansy flowers, but … m’lord has the truth of it. There’s no corpse stink.”

- Jon, in the scene where they find the corpses that turn into wights, AGOT

“Lady Smallwood’s maidservants scrubbed her so hard it felt like they were flaying her themselves. They even dumped in some stinky-sweet stuff that smelled like flowers.”

- Arya, ASOS

“Then it turned out the purple flowers were called poison kisses, and Arya got a rash on her arms.”

- Sansa, AGOT

Promise me, she had cried, in a room that smelled of blood and roses. . .  “I bring her flowers when I can,” he said. “Lyanna was … fond of flowers.”

- Eddard, AGOT

“[Varys’] hand left powder stains on Ned’s sleeve, and he smelled as foul and sweet as flowers on a grave.”

- Eddard, AGOT

“Closer to the towers, corpses littered the ground on every side. Blood-blooms had sprouted from their gaping wounds, pale flowers with petals plump and moist as a woman’s lips.”

- Reek, ADWD

“And then there are the roses. Roses smell so sweet, don’t they? Especially when there are so many of them. Fifty, sixty, seventy thousand roses, in the city or camped outside it, I can’t really say how many are left, but there’s more than I care to count, anyway.”
Martell gave a shrug. “In Dorne of old before we married Daeron, it was said that all flowers bow before the sun. Should the roses seek to hinder me I’ll gladly trample them underfoot.”
“As you trampled Willas Tyrell?”

- Tyrion, ASOS

Flowers = Deception:

“Marry me, bright light, and sail the ship of my heart. I cannot sleep at night for thinking of your beauty.”
Dany smiled. Xaro’s flowery protestations of passion amused her, but his manner was at odds with his words.”

- Daenerys, ACOK

“The air was heavy with the scent of night-blooming flowers… 
[a few pages later] 
“He touched her bare breast lightly, and whispered, “Let me stay and help persuade you.”
For a moment she was tempted.”

- Daenerys, Xaro tries to seduce her to make her leave Meereen, ADWD

“The morning air was thick with the old familiar stinks of King’s Landing. She breathed in the scents of sour wine, bread baking, rotting fish and nightsoil, smoke and sweat and horse piss. No flower had ever smelled so sweet. Huddled in her robe, Cersei paused atop the marble steps as the Warrior’s Sons formed up around her.”

- Cersei, AFFC

“I tell you, these Tyrells are only Lannisters with flowers.”

- Sansa, ASOS

Sweet smells = deception:

“Roose Bolton had a sweeter smell to him, yet no more pleasant. He sipped hippocras in preference to wine or mead, and ate but little.
Catelyn could not fault him for his lack of appetite.”

- Catelyn, ASOS

“This is a sweet city,” Quentyn agreed. Sweet enough to rot your teeth. Sweet beets were grown in profusion hereabouts, and were served with almost every meal. The Volantenes made a cold soup of them, as thick and rich as purple honey. Their wines were sweet as well. “I fear our happy voyage will be short, however. That sweet man does not mean to take us to Meereen. He was too quick to accept your offer. He’ll take thrice the usual fee, no doubt, and once he has us aboard and out of sight of land, he’ll slit our throats and take the rest of our gold as well.”

- Quentyn, ADWD

Quentyn foreshadowing for perfume covering up bad smells:

“Adventure stank.
She boasted sixty oars, a single sail, and a long lean hull that promised speed. Small, but she might serve, Quentyn thought when he saw her, but that was before he went aboard and got a good whiff of her. Pigs, was his first thought, but after a second sniff he changed his mind. Pigs had a cleaner smell. This stink was piss and rotting meat and nightsoil, this was the reek of corpse flesh and weeping sores and wounds gone bad, so strong that it overwhelmed the salt air and fish smell of the harbor.
“I want to retch,” he said to Gerris Drinkwater. They were waiting for the ship’s master to appear, sweltering in the heat as the stench wafted up from the deck beneath them.
“If the captain smells anything like his ship, he may mistake your vomit for perfume,” Gerris replied.”

- Quentyn, ADWD

Jon Snow smells deceptive, according to Varamyr:

“I warned you he was false.” Varamyr’s tone was mild, but his shadowcat was staring at Jon hungrily through slitted grey eyes. “I never did like the smell o’ him.”

-Jon, ASOS

Foreshadowing Dany’s poor ability to sense deception through smell:

“I would not linger here long, my queen. I mislike the very smell of this place.”
Dany smiled. “Perhaps it’s the camels you’re smelling. The Qartheen themselves seem sweet enough to my nose.”
“Sweet smells are sometimes used to cover foul ones.”

- Daenerys, ACOK

“Sweet reds,” he cried in fluent Dothraki, “I have sweet reds, from Lys and Volantis and the Arbor. Whites from Lys, Tyroshi pear brandy, firewine, pepperwine, the pale green nectars of Myr. Smokeberry browns and Andalish sours, I have them, I have them.” He was a small man, slender and handsome, his flaxen hair curled and perfumed after the fashion of Lys.”

 - Daenerys, AGOT

Foreshadowing Tyrion’s poor ability to sense deception through smell:

“Tyrion opened her robe and buried his face between her breasts. [Shae] always smelled clean to him, even in this reeking sty of a city.”

- Tyrion, ACOK 

“A whiff of something rank made him turn his head. Shae stood in the door behind him, dressed in the silvery robe he’d given her. I loved a maid as white as winter, with moonglow in her hair. Behind her stood one of the begging brothers, a portly man in filthy patched robes, his bare feet crusty with dirt, a bowl hung about his neck on a leather thong where a septon would have worn a crystal. The smell of him would have gagged a rat.
“Lord Varys has come to see you,” Shae announced.
The begging brother blinked at her, astonished. Tyrion laughed. “To be sure. How is it you knew him when I did not?”
She shrugged. “It’s still him. Only dressed different.”
“A different look, a different smell, a different way of walking,” said Tyrion. “Most men would be deceived.”
“And most women, maybe. But not whores. A whore learns to see the man, not his garb, or she turns up dead in an alley.”

- Tyrion, ACOK

“Your poor nose … ”
Tyrion rubbed irritably at the scab. “Perhaps I should have a new one made of gold. What sort of nose would you suggest, Varys? One like yours, to smell out secrets?”

- Tyrion, ASOS

Smelling out lies:

“Only one cup of wine, to help my courage. If they catch me now, they’ll strip the skin off my back.”
And what will they do to me? Sansa found herself thinking of Lady again. She could smell out falsehood, she could, but she was dead, Father had killed her, on account of Arya. She drew the knife and held it before her with both hands.”

- Sansa, ACOK

“Florian and Jonquil? A fool and his cunt. Spare me. But one day I’ll have a song from you, whether you will it or no.”
“I will sing it for you gladly.”
Sandor Clegane snorted. “Pretty thing, and such a bad liar. A dog can smell a lie, you know.Look around you, and take a good whiff. They’re all liars here … and every one better than you.”

- Sansa, ACOK

“Dywen said Craster was a kinslayer, liar, raper, and craven, and hinted that he trafficked with slavers and demons. “And worse,” the old forester would add, clacking his wooden teeth. “There’s a cold smell to that one, there is.”

- Jon, ACOK

Perfumes = Red Door:

“She did take a dozen flasks of scented oils, the perfumes of her childhood; she had only to close her eyes and sniff them and she could see the big house with the red door once more. ”

- Daenerys, AGOT

Random things:

“There were more, near as mad or worse: Lord Wobblecheeks, the Drunken Conqueror, the Beastmaster, Pudding Face, the Rabbit, the Charioteer, the Perfumed Hero. Some had twenty soldiers, some two hundred or two thousand, all slaves they had trained and equipped themselves.”

- Quentyn, ADWD

[Springwatch]

It's a great idea, well reasoned.

We're sort of given that the truth of a person is in their smell ('a dog can smell a lie'), so washing clean is a way of hiding that truth, and perfume is a way of sending out an entirely artificial message. So the stinky steward need not literally wear a lot of perfume.

There's some support for perfumed Jon in the idea that the sidekicks of a major character act as a foreshadowing or a reflection of that person - a banner bearer to their character basically. (I haven't thought about this theory for ages, it's probably worth re-visiting.) Anyway, Jon's last sidekick was Satin, the alleged boy-whore, who combed perfume through his beard. (It wouldn't surprise if whores foreshadow skinchangers; I bet the Others have got a lot of them.)

I'm not sure sweetness is a bad thing, exactly, even though it is associated with poison. I'm guessing it's like an opiate - pure pleasure, but dangerous all the same.

[Lady Barbrey]

Nicely argued and perhaps another dark horse as you say.

This post also made me refocus on Quaithe, in light of Aaron's dying words about a sphinx - that the riddler not the riddle is important.  Because if anyone in the series can be construed as a riddler, that's Quaithe.

But then we have Alleras the Sphinx, Sarella Sand, who seems to have been connected to dying Aemon in some way, because she actually echoes a number of his words about unlit candles and unmatched eggs.  She appears to have been reading flames or has some kind of seer-like ability.  Sarella has been involved in some sort of "Great Game" of her own, according to Doran.

I guess I'm wondering if Sarella and Quaithe could be the same person, or somehow related to each other, given their descriptions as 'sphinxes/riddlers'. 

Anyway, I'm off on a tangent, but thank you for giving me something else to ponder with your own theory and a new line of inquiry for myself!  I will have to re-read the relevant sections and see if this has already been hashed out on the forums previously.

[Big P]

I don't think so.  Jon Snow is dead.  It would be rather disappointing if he came back to life.  And even if he does and if he is the seneschal the only thing he can look forward to is a date with stake and fire.  That is right.  He will burn at the stake for treason.

[Kandrax]

Very interesting theory, however i wouldn't dismiss Reznak just because he is most obvious candidate.  Martin can tricks us into believing that is someone we wouldn't expect. Also, Quaithe's prophecy isn't 100% correct because griffin and mummer's dragon(unless you believe that he is Tattered) aren't coming to her.

[Megorova]

I think, that Quaithe's warning about those people, is a reference to Dany's time still in Essos, so Jon and Varys could be crossed out of that list. That seneschal is someone, whom Dany will meat the last one out of her visitors. From one of them she will get herself a fleet to sail to Westeros - Victarion. Thus with whom can Dany meet, already after she will have everything necessary for conquering 7K (her Dothraki horde, Unsullied, various sellswords companies, Iron Fleet), when she will be on her way to Westeros? -> Illyrio. Most likely, on her way West, Dany and her armade will stop at Pentos (it's directly across from King's Landing and Dragonstone, thus it's the most convenient route from Essos to Westeros, from port of Pentos).

Illyrio is seneschal of Blackfyres. 

[bemused]

22 hours ago, The Pink Letter said:

I don't think so.  Jon Snow is dead.  It would be rather disappointing if he came back to life.  And even if he does and if he is the seneschal the only thing he can look forward to is a date with stake and fire.  That is right.  He will burn at the stake for treason.

 Nice try (and prepare to be disappointed...)

@Keep Shelly in Athens ... very nice OP. It does get me thinking... I'll be back...

[zandru]

On 10/12/2018 at 3:39 PM, The Pink Letter said:

Jon Snow is dead.  It would be rather disappointing if he came back to life. 

This is an outcome I'd love to be disappointed by.

On 10/12/2018 at 11:13 AM, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Is Tyrion one of the candidates for a perfumed seneschal? Remember, the candidate is likely someone who is seeking Dany for her dragons, and they will smell flowery. Indeed, Tyrion is using her to bring fire and blood to his family. And, his ship name, Selaesori Qhoran (Fragrant Steward), could be what Quaithe was referring to. 

I think potentially any of the characters on board the Selaesori Qhoran could be the person for Dany to be wary of. Not just Tyrion, but Moqorro and her dear old bear, Ser Jorah. I suspect that the "fragrent steward" may not refer to the person themselves, but how they arrived.

[Joey Crows]

Interesting to be sure. And very well researched and thought out. Buuuut, I'm not sold. Haha. I still think this refers to Varys, and by proxy, anyone he's helped to ultimately influence Dany. So the likes of Tyrion, Jorah, Ilyrio, fAegon, etc., are all results of the "perfumed seneschal" and his plans. Thus all possible betrayers.

 

[Rufus Snow]

On 10/12/2018 at 6:13 PM, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

To rephrase GRRM’s words to fit Dany: “The more Dany tries to avoid them, the more she is making them true.” By having her fortune read, with treasons included, she now has a parallel with Cersei. The narrative has set up a self-fulfilling prophecy. She will probably interpret "slayer of lies" as something she must do, therefore creating a future where she will do it. However, I believe that the visions in the House of the Undying are not fate, because Dany can choose to ignore them. Martin also says “you don’t want [the prophecies] to be too literal or too easy,” which probably rules out Varys or Reznak. He may be people who Dany thinks is the perfumed seneschal, but like Melisandre with Stannis, she would be incorrect in her assumptions. Likewise, Dany may burn Varys or Aegon, thinking that this has neutralized a threat to her...but there will likely be more people coming to her for her dragons. 

And we also see that to avoid a prophecy, you must make it true, as well. So that principle might help Dany defuse some of these prophecied problems (though I haven't tried working out how...).

So when has making a prophecy true avoided it? Jojen had the greendream of Bran and Rickon 'in their tombs', and of course everyone assumed he was seeing them dead. Instead, they hid in the tombs, and hence avoided being killed by Ramsay and Theon.

[Lady Barbrey]

29 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

And we also see that to avoid a prophecy, you must make it true, as well. So that principle might help Dany defuse some of these prophecied problems (though I haven't tried working out how...).

So when has making a prophecy true avoided it? Jojen had the greendream of Bran and Rickon 'in their tombs', and of course everyone assumed he was seeing them dead. Instead, they hid in the tombs, and hence avoided being killed by Ramsay and Theon.

Great point about Jojen but I am uneasy about prophecies altogether.  In Greek myth, dads dumped their kids in coffins and sank them to avoid prophecies the child would kill them, and then the kids grow up and kill the dads anyway not knowing the dads are their fathers, or they sleep with their mothers, or run away with powerful men's wives and start a war, etc etc. The best thing to do when someone starts to announce a prophecy is put your fingers in your ears and mumble, nananana, over and over.

They are particularly bad for Dany, whose dad went mad from paranoia.

And for me, because why does the Perfumed Seneschal seem to be a boat and everything else indicates one person.  That's the main reason I give a little credence to the theory. And why can Tyrion avert other people's fate with his decisions or advice when no one else can? Did George decide to go in another direction at the last minute and used Tyrion to send Aegon and Jon away (I suspect this the most) or are we to believe Tyrion's special talent is that he's a free spirit unbound to fate like everyone else is bound?

What's that, George?  I can't hear you.  Nananana.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

11 hours ago, Megorova said:

I think, that Quaithe's warning about those people, is a reference to Dany's time still in Essos, so Jon and Varys could be crossed out of that list. That seneschal is someone, whom Dany will meat the last one out of her visitors. From one of them she will get herself a fleet to sail to Westeros - Victarion. Thus with whom can Dany meet, already after she will have everything necessary for conquering 7K (her Dothraki horde, Unsullied, various sellswords companies, Iron Fleet), when she will be on her way to Westeros? -> Illyrio. Most likely, on her way West, Dany and her armade will stop at Pentos (it's directly across from King's Landing and Dragonstone, thus it's the most convenient route from Essos to Westeros, from port of Pentos).

Illyrio is seneschal of Blackfyres. 

All those warnings from Q are for her time in Meereen.  Specifically they are warning her to be wary of her suitors.  A better way to describe them is advice.  This is coming from an older woman to the girl who will be receiving a lot of suitors.  It is marriage advice but tailored to somebody who is in a position of power.  It's common sense.  Q is really saying they want to have access to your power.  They want to offer marrige to seal the contract.  

Daenerys should be wary of Jon Snow and the Starks because they were one of the leading rebel houses who overthrew her father.  The Starks are indeed the dogs of the Baratheons.  Jon already betrayed the NW and the Wildlings.  He has a history of breaking his oaths.  But I just don't think Q was referring to Jon.  He's too far away.  Daenerys will have gained more life experience by the time she arrives in the north and she will not need a warning from Qaithe to know that the Starks are one of her potential enemies.  She will by then have been told of Jon's betrayal of the watch.  She will have been told of the red wedding and why it happened.  Daenerys is a smart girl and it won't take her long to treat the Starks like the thorny rose that they are.

[zandru]

15 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

The Starks are indeed the dogs of the Baratheons.  Jon already betrayed the NW and the Wildlings.  He has a history of breaking his oaths.

"dogs?" Maybe back in Ned's day. But Ned is dead, as are the Baratheons he "served." (I'd call it more like "childhood friendship" than playing the dog, but whatever). Jon "betrayed" the Wildlings by following orders from the Night's Watch. He never actually "betrayed" the Watch. And as far as his "betrayal" of the Free Folk, he managed to save many of them when he became Lord Commander, taking them through the Wall, giving them places to live and work to do. Nobody else on either side seemed to have the creativity, originality, and flexibility to even consider this solution to their problems.

This points out some of the problems with living by "sworn oaths" - what if your various oaths conflict? What if circumstances change? Jaime Lannister learned this at an early age; should he honor his oath to protect and support Mad King Aerys -- and let him burn down King's Landing, killing tens of thousands of people, including possibly Jaime's own father and uncles?

15 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Daenerys is a smart girl and it won't take her long to treat the Starks like the thorny rose that they are.

I hope so. I hope Dany's nightmare in Meereen have given her experience and understanding of dealing with powerful opponents. Although I'm not sure, and I don't know how useful Tyrion may end up being to her (assuming the two ever get together.) Jorah Mormont has certainly given her an earful about the awfulness of the Starks. On the other hand, we can't even be sure if Daenerys will make it to Westeros. Even in Volantis, the slaves are praying for her to come and rescue them.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Quaithe is not making prophecies, though, is she? She seems to be looking at people with a glass candle. She warns Dany of glass candled burning as early as ACoK and then tells her about it again in ADWD. 

There are already 3 cases of pale mare within Dany's camp as early as ASoS. Those are people who followed Dany from Astapor. They may already have been carriers of the disease.

Victarion was on his way to Dany somewhere in AFfC, and we don't know when it was decided that Moqorro was going to head to Meereen, but I imagine the red priests are following their fire visions.

The lion and the griffin were traveling together to Meereen before they got separated and then the plans changed when Aegon decided to follow Tyrion's "counsel."

Quentyn was headed to Meereen before Oberyn arrived in King's Landing. 

And we have the mummer's dragon and the perfumed seneschal.

Beyond this, Quaithe seems to have done with Dany the exact same thing that Tyrion has done with Young Griff. Tyrion told Young Griff to trust none of the people he knew, including Dany. 

About the perfumed seneschal, Jon does have Satin. Satin grows a beard and oils it with perfume. And Satin so far (and I don't see this changing) is loyal to Jon. So there's that. As well, I think there's a lot more than meets the eye with this character.

The Selaesori Qhoran, if we want to go with a stinky/perfumed combo, there's Varys when he dons his disguises. When he goes to visit Ned in the black cells, Ned thinks that he smelled sour and Tyrion has the same thought when Varys is disguised as a begging brother.

The other character that fits the description is Illyrio Mopatis (Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes). Illyrio put Jorah in Dany's path, who was spying on her for Varys. When the Tattered Prince said he wanted Pentos, Dany refuses because that's where Illyrio lives (I am also oversimplifying this).

[zandru]

The many responses show that there are many possible candidates for the "perfumed seneschal." Not quite as many candidates as "valonquar" but enough that Dany would be a fool to single out any one person - particularly since many of the possibilities are still "off camera" as far as she's concerned.

I see little value in picking one and fighting til the last dog dies. If Daenerys does that, that way leads to madness (example: Cersei deciding Joffrey's death - and every other bad thing - was done by her little brother. And we're back to the valonquar!)

[Guest]

On 10/13/2018 at 8:33 AM, Megorova said:

I think, that Quaithe's warning about those people, is a reference to Dany's time still in Essos, so Jon and Varys could be crossed out of that list.

 

On 10/12/2018 at 2:58 PM, Kandrax said:

Also, Quaithe's prophecy isn't 100% correct because griffin and mummer's dragon(unless you believe that he is Tattered) aren't coming to her.

What is the evidence that it's only about her time in Essos or Meereen, so some people can be crossed off? Is that wise? Crossing off people and letting down her guard just because she meets them under different circumstances? 

On 10/13/2018 at 8:41 PM, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

All those warnings from Q are for her time in Meereen.  Specifically they are warning her to be wary of her suitors.  A better way to describe them is advice. 

I kind of see it the same as the grey girl prophecy, because that's how it comes across to Dany - as a future event, one of which came true (the sun's son) - but with a warning attached.

 

[Starkz]

The most likely candidate for Perfumed Seneschal is definitely Illyrio. It’s noted how much perfume he always wears and the case can be made that he is Varys steward, perhaps not in the traditional definition, but in a stretched one he does seem to adhere to what Varys tells him to do. Furthermore he’s already deceived Daenerys.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Starkz said:

The most likely candidate for Perfumed Seneschal is definitely Illyrio. It’s noted how much perfume he always wears and the case can be made that he is Varys steward, perhaps not in the traditional definition, but in a stretched one he does seem to adhere to what Varys tells him to do.

Varys and Illyrio, either separately or together, are definitely sending off betrayal vibes.  I just dont think it will come about until after she kills Aegon. 

Illyrio seems rather pro-Dany at this point. He's hopped on the bandwagon. 

I've seen some speculation that Varys will try to kill Dany because she's an obstacle to putting Aegon on the throne, but I don't think they would attempt to usurp her until much, much later in the game, or at least until after she has killed Aegon.

I dont think Varys/Illyrio are a threat to her until she does that. Then, she may kill Varys or Illyrio thinking one of them is the perfumed seneschal - but not both. Say she picks Illyrio because he's not able to disguise himself as well as Varys. Varys now swears fealty to her until a better prospect comes along. Enter: Jon, out of left-field. Varys supports him against Dany.

That's why all of this comes back to Jon, anyway. Because Aegon would actually be a good prospect for Dany to achieve a Targaryen restoration. Jon would not want to marry her because of the incest. Aegon would. Still, Varys helps install Jon on the throne, over Dany, and actually succeeds this time. Hence, Quaithe pushes Dany toward being no one but the mother of dragons. The more she's trying to avoid it, the more she's making it come true.

[rotting sea cow]

6 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

 

Illyrio seems rather pro-Dany at this point. He's hopped on the bandwagon. 

Illyrio is anything but pro-Dany, he is hands-full behind Aegon's conspiracy. Varys and Illyrio are however pragmatic people and they see the advantage of Dany and her dragons for Aegon's conquest and legitimacy. So, they need her... now, however...

 

Quote

I've seen some speculation that Varys will try to kill Dany because she's an obstacle to putting Aegon on the throne, but I don't think they would attempt to usurp her until much, much later in the game, or at least until after she has killed Aegon.

I dont think Varys/Illyrio are a threat to her until she does that. Then, she may kill Varys or Illyrio thinking one of them is the perfumed seneschal - but not both. Say she picks Illyrio because he's not able to disguise himself as well as Varys. Varys now swears fealty to her until a better prospect comes along. Enter: Jon, out of left-field. Varys supports him against Dany.

Once Aegon sits in the IT and marries Arianne (most likely), the mere existence of someone called Daenerys Targaryen is a threat to Aegon reign, more so if she has dragons and is rallying huge Esssosi armies behind her cause. So, that speculation is probably quite spot on. But, it won't be the only thing they will try against her.

My take on the Perfurmed Seneschal comes from here
 

Quote

The red priest chuckled. "Neither. Qhoran is … not a ruler, but one who serves and counsels such, and helps conduct his business. You of Westeros might say steward or magister.

King's Hand? That amused him. "And selaesori?"

Moqorro touched his nose. "Imbued with a pleasant aroma. Fragrant, would you say? Flowery?"

"So Selaesori Qhoran means Stinky Steward, more or less?"

 

"Fragrant Steward, rather."

- Tyrion VIII, ADWD

AND

"Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes. " - Daenerys I, AGOT

 

So, Magister Illyrio is both, heavily perfumed yet stinky.

Also, in Varys/Illyrio conspiracy, they are quite good at division of tasks. Varys is clearly working heavily in Westerosi affairs and also he seems to be the ideologist behind. Illyrio manages Essosi affairs (including getting hold of Dany and Viserys), financing the whole damn thing, providing the little birds for Varys, etc.

Since Varys will be hands-full juggling thousands of things from the moment Aegon landed in Westeros to the early days of his reign, Illyrio will have to contend with anything in Essos that could destabilize Aegon's enterprise.  So, my conclusion is that the perfumed seneschal is Illyrio.

 

 

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

So, my conclusion is that the perfumed seneschal is Illyrio.

I'm approaching this from a full arc of prophecy like Jon with the grey girl. From a writing standpoint, she must screw herself over just like Jon did, because her guesswork isnt any better than his. Therefore I think she will take action toward the wrong person. Thats why it seems like a perfect set up to make her think she's taken care of one problem with Illyrio/Aegon only for another son of Rhaegar to also fit the warning.