US Politics: In Through the Out Door

[Maithanet]

Leave it to the Democrats to manage expectations so badly that a night where they clearly, undeniably gain power at both the state and federal level feels like a split decision, if not a Trump win. 

I am still having trouble dealing with the Florida results.  The rest of the country went well enough, if definitely not as well as I'd hoped.  But Gillum was electric and had polled (slightly) ahead in virtually every poll.  In comparison Desantis is such a race baiting scumbag.  Really, really disappointing. 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Where did you see that? As far as I can tell the MI senate and House stay in Republican hands (Senate is something like 22-16 and House is 58-52 for the R's, a change from 27-10 and 64-46 but not enough).

Pretty sure Fez was saying in that sentence that the Dems broke the supermajority in the Michigan Senate, which based on your results would mean they did..I think.

12 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Tester could eek it out.

Here's hoping!

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Leave it to the Democrats to manage expectations so badly that a night where they clearly, undeniably gain power at both the state and federal level feels like a split decision, if not a Trump win.

This.  So much.

[Mexal]

11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Leave it to the Democrats to manage expectations so badly that a night where they clearly, undeniably gain power at both the state and federal level feels like a split decision, if not a Trump win. 

Not sure how that is the Dem's fault. It's more the media focusing almost entirely on races that haven't nominated a Dem in a long time (Texas, Florida (gov), Georgia), expecting that the House would flip, giving hope to keeping the Senate and Trump proclaiming victory. Really not sure what you want Democrats to do other than what they did.

[David Selig]

What would be a good place to see detailed exit poll data about demographic breakdowns by gender, education level, income, etc?

[IheartIheartTesla]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Pretty sure Fez was saying in that sentence that the Dems broke the supermajority in the Michigan Senate, which based on your results would mean they did..I think.

Here's hoping!

Oh yes, I see that now....

For Georgia the absentee ballots have to be counted to see if Kemp drops below 50%.

[Mexal]

Important point. Dems lost 900 seats across the country during Obama's two terms. They got 333 back.

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Dems lost 900 seats across the country during Obama's two terms. They got 333 back.

That's a good rate.  Also, those numbers are peculiar.  Like someone rounded to the third.

[Fragile Bird]

47 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Reality is globalization, while good for a large group, has allowed hatred to flourish and what is happening in the US is happening elsewhere and it will only get worse. See Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, etc.

In the Canadian school system you get raised on the history of England in all it’s wonderful and tawdry aspects, but outside in the real world you get raised looking at the US, much of it through US media hype about what a wonderful world leader it is, in democracy, in medicine, in the Arts, in science. The US President was the leader of the good fight. JFK, for all his flaws, personal and political, was the shining light I grew up in.

I did not look to Germany or Italy as shiny lights. Brazil doesn’t register as much more than the destroyers of the rain forest with an incredibly, historically corrupt government. I exagerate, of course. The UK? Died after WW I destroyed their leaders.

The destruction of democracy in the US is soul destroying for many people around the world. Don’t kid yourself. There are a couple of generations of people who will never trust the US again. People in countries that were allies, not enemies.

39 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know why the GOP focusing on the Senate is so discouraging.  Of course they're gonna champion that, what do you expect?

In last night’s elections, which Republican senators were chosen for their open-minded approach to governing? How many moderates were elected? Marsha build-that-wall Blackburn? Ted his-father-assassinated-JFK Cruz? Who?

Trump has already tweeted that if Democrats think Congress is going to investigate him, he’s going to unleash the Senate to investigate Democrats. The Houses weaponized. You guys are fucked for the next two years, and Trump will win in 2020.

[Fez]

41 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah really sucks that it looks like Sinema and Tester will lose too.  Prolly gonna be 55-45 in the Senate.  Ouch.  But yeah, the House looks like 230-205.  Wasn't much off on that.  And pretty close on the governors too (+7) - if it wasn't for Ohio and Fucking Florida.

I don't know why the GOP focusing on the Senate is so discouraging.  Of course they're gonna champion that, what do you expect?

Last I heard, there's still a lot of votes left in Missoula. I think Tester has a good shot of eeking out a win. But even a 54-46 Senate is pretty damn bad for 2020; Democrats better hope Collins retires, because they need that Maine seat to be competitive.

 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

In last night’s elections, which Republican senators were chosen for their open-minded approach to governing? How many moderates were elected? Marsha build-that-wall Blackburn? Ted his-father-assassinated-JFK Cruz? Who?

I don't know what this has to do with the fact Republicans celebrated their Senate victory because it was the politically obvious thing to do.

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

Trump has already tweeted that if Democrats think Congress is going to investigate him, he’s going to unleash the Senate to investigate Democrats. The Houses weaponized. You guys are fucked for the next two years, and Trump will win in 2020.

Um, weaponizing the House is exactly what everyone here wanted.  I don't know why anyone should be surprised Trump is ready to respond in kind.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

In last night’s elections, which Republican senators were chosen for their open-minded approach to governing? How many moderates were elected? Marsha build-that-wall Blackburn? Ted his-father-assassinated-JFK Cruz? Who?

Trump has already tweeted that if Democrats think Congress is going to investigate him, he’s going to unleash the Senate to investigate Democrats. The Houses weaponized. You guys are fucked for the next two years, and Trump will win in 2020.

Trump weaponizing the Senate against the House? Good luck. He says a lot of things and 95% of it is bullshit. There is zero chance McConnell, or the Senators, engage in that.

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Um, weaponizing the House is exactly what everyone here wanted.  I don't know why anyone should be surprised Trump is ready to respond in kind.

I think this is being positioned terribly. What everyone wanted was the House to conduct it's congressional duty of oversight. The fact that it's "weaponized" is mostly due to the historic level of corruption within the Trump Administration and how much shit there is to actually investigate that is completely legitimate.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Um, weaponizing the House is exactly what everyone here wanted.  I don't know why anyone should be surprised Trump is ready to respond in kind.

The House weaponized in 2010, and further in 2014 with the expanded power of committee chairs.  The change is now the Democrats finally have access to something that isn't just a tourney sword to fight the Trump bear. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Mexal said:

What everyone wanted was the House to conduct it's congressional duty of oversight. The fact that it's "weaponized" is mostly due to the historic level of corruption within the Trump Administration.

Sure but that's not gonna change how the GOP perceives such investigations.

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The change is now the Democrats finally have access to something that isn't just a tourney sword to fight the Trump bear. 

They still look pretty ugly in that dress though.

[Mexal]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Sure but that's not gonna change how the GOP perceives such investigations.

Well of course not given what Trump will say 5 times a day for the next 2 years. You just can't beat a President who has no problem lying and dividing and a media that's obligated to carry every fucking word he says.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So these were my predictions from last night:

Quote

My predictions are less optimistic:

House: Dems +25

Senate: Repubs +2 (Dems win either NV or AZ, Repubs sweep ND, MO and IN)

Governors: Dems +8

The big one though is state House and Senate seats. I think Democrats will make huge gains here. Idk how many legislatures will flip, but it will set Dems up nicely for 2020 and redistricting.

Fairly accurate if I may say so. Was off by a few seats in both chambers, but had the directions correct. Might end up spot on with the governors’ races. Haven’t seen any data on the state legislatures though.

I’m not sure why so many of you are down. We won the House, and the was the chief priority. We lost a few more seats in the Senate than I expected, but it doesn’t matter given that we took the House and that Kavanaugh was confirmed on a 50-50 vote. Florida was a gut punch, no doubt, but Kansas offsets it big time in my book.

Results here in Minnesota are solid. Swept every statewide race, including the dicey Ellison race. Craig defeated Lewis, who is a total scumbag, and I think she can hold the second for years to come. The first is still up in the air which sucks. The State House flipped back to the DFL, and the Senate will in two years.

But most importantly to me, Lake Minnetonka is finally liberated from Republican rule!!!!! Good bye Erik Paulsen. Have a nice life doing other things, “math guy.” F’ing fraud!!!

[Fragile Bird]

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know what this has to do with the fact Republicans celebrated their Senate victory because it was the politically obvious thing to do.

Um, weaponizing the House is exactly what everyone here wanted.  I don't know why anyone should be surprised Trump is ready to respond in kind.

It’s more about the fact that Americans voted for Trump. There was no blue wave - as Mexal pointed out, 900 seats were lost in the previous years and only 333 were flipped back. There are more elections to come, of course, but every Congress seat was up, right? And many (all?) state seats.

The CBC here has followed the elections for months, and have had panels of US voters. So many Trump supporters say they see no racism, no homophobia, no lying, in Trump. My jaw dropped this morning as a school teacher in D.C. said in 20 years she hasn’t seen any racism in the school. ‘We don’t see color’.

It’s just so gross.

[S John]

Bring it.  Trump isn’t winning over any new voters and he kinda lucked into the first term when reliable Dem states in the North went his way.  All his bullshit lies are to keep the people he’s got.  Literally nobody else believes anything he says.  There are any number of things that could compound his isssues in the next 2 years, an economic recession chief among them.

Wisconsin booting Walker, Dem gains in Michigan are bad signs for Trump.  I don’t believe he can afford to have Pa, Wi, and Mi go back to blue.  Would’ve been nice if Dems could have won something in Florida too but Trump will be in for a fight the next 2 years.  Long as the Dems don’t nominate a Turd, I feel like it’s entirely doable to get rid of this guy in 2020.  

[S John]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

It’s more about the fact that Americans voted for Trump. There was no blue wave - as Mexal pointed out, 900 seats were lost in the previous years and only 333 were flipped back. There are more elections to come, of course, but every Congress seat was up, right? And many (all?) state seats.

The CBC here has followed the elections for months, and have had panels of US voters. So many Trump supporters say they see no racism, no homophobia, no lying, in Trump. My jaw dropped this morning as a school teacher in D.C. said in 20 years she hasn’t seen any racism in the school. ‘We don’t see color’.

It’s just so gross.

900 seats lost in 8 years, 1/3 of them regained in 2.  That’s not bad at all.

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

It’s more about the fact that Americans voted for Trump. There was no blue wave - as Mexal pointed out, 900 seats were lost in the previous years and only 333 were flipped back. There are more elections to come, of course, but every Congress seat was up, right? And many (all?) state seats.

Not all state seats, but ~80% of them as I understand it.  For example, NJ and VA voted last year. 

Gaining back all 900 seats lost over three bad state cycles isn't realistic at all.  I had hoped for a bit more (in the 400-450 range), but this is still a lot of seats and a lot of political power the Democrats have gained.  And virtually all of the legislatures they didn't win moved in the right direction to make flipping in 2020 more realistic.