US Politics: In Through the Out Door

[GrimTuesday]

1 minute ago, Relic said:

Seems to me that this is all due to our dumb two party system. Dems have to represent all progressives, and a deal of centrists too, and that's just not good for anyone involved. 

Yep, but until we get actual proportional representation, voting for a third party is just stupid. It's never going to be the year that everyone just decides to vote Green or Libertarian, you're just ensuring that those who you more closely align with get few votes, and those who are basically the antithesis of what you're standing up for benefit.

[Relic]

1 minute ago, GrimTuesday said:

Yep, but until we get actual proportional representation, voting for a third party is just stupid. It's never going to be the year that everyone just decides to vote Green or Libertarian, you're just ensuring that those who you more closely align with get few votes, and those who are basically the antithesis of what you're standing up for benefit.

So it's never going to change, basically? I wonder how the US would actually go about introducing like...3 more parties into the current system. 

[SeanF]

The close outcome in West Virginia shows how sensible Manchin was to vote for Kavanaugh.  Had he voted against, he would have lost.  He knows his electorate.

[drawkcabi]

1 minute ago, Relic said:

For the record, I felt some of that anxiety as well, although not to the extent i felt it during the evening hours on election day 2016. So i understand where its coming from, but it just doesnt seem like that should be the case in a healthy democratic society. Which i guess we have never been. 

When a portions of our society feel in constant fear of deportation, being separated from their families, government sanctioned racism, basic human rights being taken away, and more, and that fear justifiably grows day by day the anxiety is all too understandable.

But, yeah it most certainly should not be the case in healthy democratic society. 

Maybe the answer for some is getting out and finding someplace else to hang their hat. I don't blame anyone that does. Some have no where else to go though or the resources to go and some just don't want to give up, we know the country is in a bad way but want to keep chipping away at it as best they can.

[Mexal]

2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

The very last thing Dems need to worry about is how energised Trump's base is.

Just assume that they will be maximally energised, cos Trump WILL lie and create controversy in order to energise them - it's about the only thing he's actually good at.

If Dems kowtow to Trump, his base will be 100% motivated.

If Dems resist literally everything that Trump does, his base will be 100% motivated.

Anything in between, and his base will be 100% motivated.

 

Trump will get 20% of the US population to vote for him, (maybe less in an economic crisis, more if he gets to declare war on Iran)

The question is whether the Dems can enough out to overcome the electoral college and voter suppression.

Thank you. I keep reading on here how the Dems shouldn't investigate hard cause it'll energize Trump's base or how Trump will blame the Dems for any failures which will energize Trump's base or how the Dems had a bad night cause it'll just energize Trump's base. Fact is, Trump's base is fucking energized and it will continue to be energized as long as Trump does his rock star rallies 5 times a week for the next 2 years and lies with every breath he takes. They fucking love him. 

Fact is, Dems flipped the House, like 7 governorships, gained 6 state trifectas while losing none and managed to pass ballot measures to improve voting access, re-districting and voting rights, especially in Florida/Michigan. That's pretty good in a highly gerrymandered environment. Now they need to start working towards doing what they need to do to win in 2020. Senate being mostly out of reach blows but it is what it is.

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, butterbumps! said:

While I wasn’t expecting a blue wave, and understood the Senate was just structurally difficult to take and defend this term, and knew that voter suppression and gerrymandering put the odds against us in a number of place, and am aware that R voters just tend to be better than Dems at voting in midterms, I have to say that I’m pretty aghast at how many people actually came out to double down on the stupid and the bigoted.  Like how is the US this full of the boundlessly hateful and credulous?    And are they actually even this gullible, or do they pretend to believe Dems are giving free healthcare and scholarships or whatever to MS13 members that are apparently coming over in droves to rape white women?  

White supremacy is a hell of a drug.

That's not to say that's what motivated ALL Republican voters, but it's easy, works in all states, and gets right down to the lizard brain parts -- which seems to be what drives conservative voters.

[Mexal]

 

[Fez]

Waking up to see that Evers beat Walker and Lamont probably coming back to win, but that Sinema probably lost and that Tester is still too close to call is definitely giving me mixed feelings this morning. Just like the whole election has.

Its important not to lose sight of just how great a night the House shaped up to be, but the the Senate was a bloodbath. Its true that they won't be doing anything besides voting for judges the next two years, which they'd be capable of doing with a 50+Pence majority too for the most part. But Republicans will instead have between 53 and 55 seats. My guess is 54, Nelson loses recount, Sinema loses, and Tester hangs on (and the MS runoff goes the way its expected). That's at the very edge of what Democrats could realistically overcome with the 2020, especially with Doug Jones probably losing in Alabama.

Governor's races in general were somewhat mixed too, especially with the Ohio and Florida losses. And Iowa. But there were some really important wins too. Michigan and Illinois were expected, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be celebrated. Wisconsin is a great flip, as are Maine, Nevada New Mexico. Kansas is a very symbolic flip. And worth noting that Democrats only lost the South Dakota(!) race 51.0-47.6, something is up there.

I haven't seen the full list of what happened at the state leg. level, but I have seen that Democrats at least flipped the ME senate, NH House and Senate, NY Senate, CO Senate, and MN House. Combine that with the results of the governors races and Democrats gained 7 state trifectas and lost 0, Republicans gained 0 trifectas and lost 3. On top of that Democrats gained legislative supermajorities in the OR House and Senate, and broke the Republican supermajorities in the NC House and Senate, MI Senate, and PA Senate.

I haven't looked closely at ballot initiatives yet.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

Waking up to see that Evers beat Walker and Lamont probably coming back to win, but that Sinema probably lost and that Tester is still too close to call is definitely giving me mixed feelings this morning. Just like the whole election has.

Its important not to lose sight of just how great a night the House shaped up to be, but the the Senate was a bloodbath. Its true that they won't be doing anything besides voting for judges the next two years, which they'd be capable of doing with a 50+Pence majority too for the most part. But Republicans will instead have between 53 and 55 seats. My guess is 54, Nelson loses recount, Sinema loses, and Tester hangs on (and the MS runoff goes the way its expected). That's at the very edge of what Democrats could realistically overcome with the 2020, especially with Doug Jones probably losing in Alabama.

Governor's races in general were somewhat mixed too, especially with the Ohio and Florida losses. And Iowa. But there were some really important wins too. Michigan and Illinois were expected, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be celebrated. Wisconsin is a great flip, as are Maine, Nevada New Mexico. Kansas is a very symbolic flip. And worth noting that Democrats only lost the South Dakota(!) race 51.0-47.6, something is up there.

I haven't seen the full list of what happened at the state leg. level, but I have seen that Democrats at least flipped the ME senate, NH House and Senate, NY Senate, CO Senate, and MN House. Combine that with the results of the governors races and Democrats gained 7 state trifectas and lost 0, Republicans gained 0 trifectas and lost 3. On top of that Democrats gained legislative supermajorities in the OR House and Senate, and broke the Republican supermajorities in the NC House and Senate, MI Senate, and PA Senate.

I haven't looked closely at ballot initiatives yet.

Not to mention in NC, Anita Earls, one of the most well known voting rights lawyers in NC, won Supreme Court seat giving Dems a 5-2 majority. So yea, mixed night with the Senate being a blood bath and OH/FL but overall, about as good as the Dems could realistically expect it to go.

[butterbumps!]

1 hour ago, Greywolf2375 said:

Well, some of the people I grew up with in NH do truly believe that the left wants fully open borders with no controls and that if step over the line into the US then you are guaranteed a great paying job, benefits, etc.  They believe that because it was repeated enough that it had to be true.

One of them posted the meme showing the comparison between Trump and Obama. Even after it was pointed out that the image had been modified to show an incorrect approval rating for Trump he said he fully supported the data presented.  Reality and facts have no meaning when a good party line can be repeated.

This is consistent with my experience, too.  Though, I wonder what they think and say to each other when outsiders (anti-Trumpers) aren’t around.   Putting aside those truly brainwashed, I wonder how many know “facts” like these are a farce in service to a larger argument in favor of bigotry?   I’m curious if they’ll just start abandoning these fig leaves of talking points at some point.

32 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

White supremacy is a hell of a drug.

That's not to say that's what motivated ALL Republican voters, but it's easy, works in all states, and gets right down to the lizard brain parts -- which seems to be what drives conservative voters.

Here’s my question.  Do any of these people ever feel ashamed, angry or embarrassed by how badly they are being pandered to, used and conned by the party?  And not merely by Trump, but the entire Republican machine that convinces the credulous to support plutocratic policy that serves only the incredibly rich by stoking culture wars.  I’m sure those (few) voting repub who weren’t energized by the bigotry are “temporarily embarrassed millionaires” or subscribing to the prosperity gospel and whatever, and some who think they want to see Roe v Wade overturned (I say think, because I don’t actually believe Republicans will want the whirlwind that ensues should it occur).   But don’t these people ever get tired of being played?

[Paladin of Ice]

1 hour ago, butterbumps! said:

Slate had a piece on the enormity that is Democrat messaging the other day.  I have to say, this also confuses me.   I get the sense that a lot of the country’s creatives are on the Dem side; how is it that their talents aren’t being applied?    Why are the Dems always going so milquetoast at the national level?      In terms of specific messaging, I’m curious if something forward-looking would serve them, like appealing to the future as opposed to this regressive, backward-looking nostalgia shit Trump peddles.

Well, apparently Congress believes the country is much more conservative than it actually is, (at least according to this WaPo analysis) and Democratic voters are an eternal exercise in herding cats because they're a group with very different priorities and goals that don't always fully connect and are always threatening to go their own way. Which means a certain amount of watering down and lowest common denominator if you don't want to send one of those factions into a temper tantrum.

From the linked article:

Quote

Senior staffers in congressional offices hold highly inaccurate assumptions about what voters in their districts actually want when it comes to policy. They tend to believe that voters support much more conservative policies than they actually do. And this stunning misperception can largely be explained by the disproportionate attention lawmakers and their aides lavish on donors and special interest groups.

Those are the results of a new paper forthcoming in the American Political Science Review by Alexander Hertel-Fernandez of Columbia University and Matto Mildenberger and Leah C. Stokes of The University of California, Santa Barbara.

While voters have long believed that members of Congress are focused too much on the needs of special interests and out of touch with the general public, the paper provides some of the most convincing evidence to date that these perceptions are largely accurate.

In August 2016, the authors sent out a survey to the chiefs of staff and legislative directors of every House and Senate office. They targeted these senior officials because they’re largely responsible for setting an office’s legislative agenda: They play “a crucial role in the policymaking process, connecting the preferences of constituents with Members of Congress,” as the authors put it.

One section of the survey asked staffers to estimate public support in their own districts (or states, in the case of Senate aides) for five policy proposals: repealing Obamacare, raising the federal minimum wage to $12 an hour, enacting universal gun background checks, regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant, and investing $305 billion in infrastructure improvements over a five-year period. One could reasonably expect that a congressional aide would understand constituents' opinions on these issues, given that Congress had voted on bills related to these issues in the previous year.

The authors compared the aides' responses to actual district-level public opinion on the issues, as measured by large national surveys like the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The results showed a stark disconnect.

Aides' estimates of public support for the proposals were way off-base relative to the actual numbers. “In none of the five areas are staffers estimating their constituents’ preferences with any degree of relative or absolute accuracy,” the authors write. Legislative aides in Republican offices were particularly bad at estimating their constituents' support for various policies.

On the question of gun background checks, for instance, staffers in Republican offices underestimated public support by 49 percentage points. Democrats underestimated too, by 11 percentage points. Republican staffers also underestimated support for carbon dioxide regulation, infrastructure spending and minimum wage hikes by 20 percentage points or more. Democrats underestimated support for those policies by between five and nine percentage points.

There was one issue, however, where Democratic staffers were more off-base: Obamacare repeal. Democrats underestimated support for repealing the Affordable Care Act by 24 percentage points, while Republicans overestimated support by 10 percentage points.

Overall, the researchers found, aides in Democratic offices better understood public opinion in their districts by a margin of about 13 percentage points. But with the exception of Obamacare repeal, Democratic aides sided with their Republican colleagues in assuming their constituents were more conservative on the issues than they actually were.

The true Washington Bubble. I'd recommend everyone communicate more with your Democratic congresspeople and get others to flood their offices with pro-liberal/progressive opinions to try to overcome that disconnect.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

The Democrats picked up House District 1 in South Carolina.  I’m impressed.

One question, are these people winning in deep red States going to be more like the “Blue dogs” of old or are they going to bend to the new more progressive orthodoxy of the modern Democratic party?

[Toth]

These elections didn't only cause massive anxiety in the US. I slept horribly last night. In between lessons I saw several of my students stare at their phones with electoral maps opened, discussing what exactly this means and asking me questions (10th graders, mind you, but back when Trump won the presidential election I also had deeply concerned 8th graders in front of me the next day).

Now I came back home and started my PC to check my E-Mails. On the news page of my e-mail provider (which varies alot in the political spectrum, but usually has opinion pieces that desperately plea to the sanity of its troll commenter crowd), the first thing is an interview with some conservative political scientist who claims that this has been a terrific victory for Trump and all the people demanding a strong Europe that grows a spine 'should wake up', that Trump will stay and our politicians have to crawl up his ass instead of antagonizing him (as if he wouldn't betray everyone at the slightest provocation). Of course the right-wing lunatic trolls in the comment section cheered and prophesied that Germany will soon also 'come to sense' and 'abandon dirty leftist policies' (as if Merkel isn't a centrist...).

I must admit, my heart skipped several beats at that. Now I took a closer look at the election results and... while it might not be quite as bleak as I had dreaded considering all of these things, it still boggles my mind. This administration was two years of damn constant scandals every freaking week. And yet... despite its utter contempt towards truth, the future, common decency and everyone who is not filthy rich, including their own voters... despite everything, the Republicans actually gained senate seats.

I can't get it. The US is fucked. Obviously people actually are just that dumb, heavily rigged system or not... And it makes me dread for the day when the country with the most weapons on this planet will slither down to dictatorship just because of this...

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, Toth said:

I can't get it. The US is fucked. Obviously people actually are just that dumb, heavily rigged system or not... And it makes me dread for the day when the country with the most weapons on this planet will slither down to dictatorship just because of this...

I completely agree. The polarization in the US has become deeper, and with it all kinds of appalling behavior has been given permission to let loose. Republicans are calling the Senate vote the only important vote and a great victory for Trump.

This just confirms my decision to not set foot in the US anytime soon, if ever. I may have to travel through the US to get somewhere, but my days of attending WorldCons in the States, for example, are probably gone forever. Americans have revealed themselves and it’s not a pretty sight.

[DMC]

@The Anti-Targ

Quote

It is about culture though. Our culture has an ingrained commitment to an impartial public service, and when you go into public service you check your political biases and affiliations at the door. If any public servant displays any kind of political bias in the discharge of their public duties they are not tolerated by the media, the public or the elected govt.

You can't conceive of that, because it's not in your political culture. But it is very core to our political culture.

The reason I can't conceive of it has nothing to do with the political culture I was reared in and everything to do with the fact I'm a cynical asshole.

7 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Okay, apologies to @DMC because this will REALLY piss him off, but here's my prediction for how the House thing is going to go.

I don't have a problem with anything said in this post.  Of course Republicans are going to rally around Trump.  Don't really get what your point was, but there's nothing objectionable.

[Mexal]

16 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I completely agree. The polarization in the US has become deeper, and with it all kinds of appalling behavior has been given permission to let loose. Republicans are calling the Senate vote the only important vote and a great victory for Trump.

This just confirms my decision to not set foot in the US anytime soon, if ever. I may have to travel through the US to get somewhere, but my days of attending WorldCons in the States, for example, are probably gone forever. Americans have revealed themselves and it’s not a pretty sight.

Of course, more people are against the bullshit in America, including pretty much every urban environment that a WorldCon will be hosted in. More women and minorities will be in Congress now then ever in history. But you're right, Americans have revealed themselves. Reality is globalization, while good for a large group, has allowed hatred to flourish and what is happening in the US is happening elsewhere and it will only get worse. See Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, etc.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Waking up to see that Evers beat Walker and Lamont probably coming back to win, but that Sinema probably lost and that Tester is still too close to call is definitely giving me mixed feelings this morning. Just like the whole election has.

Its important not to lose sight of just how great a night the House shaped up to be, but the the Senate was a bloodbath.

Yeah really sucks that it looks like Sinema and Tester will lose too.  Prolly gonna be 55-45 in the Senate.  Ouch.  But yeah, the House looks like 230-205.  Wasn't much off on that.  And pretty close on the governors too (+7) - if it wasn't for Ohio and Fucking Florida.

22 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I completely agree. The polarization in the US has become deeper, and with it all kinds of appalling behavior has been given permission to let loose. Republicans are calling the Senate vote the only important vote and a great victory for Trump.

I don't know why the GOP focusing on the Senate is so discouraging.  Of course they're gonna champion that, what do you expect?

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

On top of that Democrats gained legislative supermajorities in the OR House and Senate, and broke the Republican supermajorities in the NC House and Senate, MI Senate, and PA Senate.

I haven't looked closely at ballot initiatives yet.

Where did you see that? As far as I can tell the MI senate and House stay in Republican hands (Senate is something like 22-16 and House is 58-52 for the R's, a change from 27-10 and 64-46 but not enough). Of course, the votes were still being counted last I checked.

All 3 ballot initiatives in MI passed, so the next round should be even better.

Also, what's going on in Georgia? And chance of a run-off?

[Mexal]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah really sucks that it looks like Sinema and Tester will lose too.  Prolly gonna be 55-45 in the Senate.  Ouch.  But yeah, the House looks like 230-205.  Wasn't much off on that.  And pretty close on the governors too (+7) - if it wasn't for Ohio and Fucking Florida.

Tester could eek it out. The lead is down to .5% and lots of Tester votes still out there while Rosendale's counties are pretty much all reported.

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Democrats picked up House District 1 in South Carolina.  I’m impressed.

One question, are these people winning in deep red States going to be more like the “Blue dogs” of old or are they going to bend to the new more progressive orthodoxy of the modern Democratic party?

Scot probably already knows this, but the First District in SC turns out to be the one in that state where the majority of voters were NOT born in South Carolina. It is full of recent migrants from New York and New Jersey who tend to be wealthy and highly educated -- just the sort of college-educated people turned off by Trump who allowed the Democrats to with the House overall. Ironically, the district is gerrymandered deliberately to leave out most of the African-Americans in the Charleston area. This is probably one place where gerrymandering didn't work out like they thought it would because of which Whites particularly dislikes Trump.

https://www.postandcourier.com/news/who-are-the-voters-in-the-st-district-arrington-cunningham/article_223b4b18-dbb5-11e8-a7b2-779a02136e4c.html

I consider myself a fairly unsophisticated political observer, but it seems to me that one of the best signs is that the Democrats seem to have done well in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three states which threw them under the bus in 2016. Also I am happy Congressman Brat lost in Virginia.

In Nebraska, the Medicaid expansion passed by 53%. One of the interesting parts of American political life right now is that ballot proposals that help out the less fortunate, like Medicaid and minimum wage hikes, seem to pass in "red" states even while they are electing Republicans who don't support them. 

For some reason I am really angry at Florida. I manage to just feel sad about the other states where the Democrats lost Senate or Gubernatorial elections, but somehow I think Florida has no right to be so stupid. And it's not that I even particularly like the state -- it just seems more frustrating somehow that they support rightwing Republicans than having Missouri and Texas do the same.  Hopefully Gillum's concession speech will be the beginning of helping the Dems down their to roll up their sleeves and get to work instead of become listless and depressed.